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&lt;h1&gt;News &amp; Insights&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Get the latest financial news and analysis, direct to your inbox. The Unio View. Clear insights, fresh perspectives.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;In the last week, I have fielded questions from audiences in Frankfurt and Dublin on the net effect of Donald Trump’s economic policies on investment portfolios. Such is the day-to-day rhythm of policy chaos that many investors likely overestimate the effect of Trump on markets, and the oddity is that as I write, US equity and bond markets are at roughly the same levels they traded at in March….though investor confidence has taken a battering.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, the luxury of financial markets is that some of the risks that Trump has unleashed can be hedged, whereas it is harder for societies, economies, and the body politic to offset the implications of his behaviour on foreign direct investment flows and the quality of political debate for example.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From an investment point of view, I term the net effect of Trump on portfolios as ‘The End of Privilege’ which is to say that the idea of US assets in general and the dollar in particular befitting from what Giscard d’Estaing had famously referred to as ‘exorbitant privilege’ is coming to a slow end. In concrete terms, we can expect investors to question the role of US Treasuries as a safe haven, and for the dollar to slowly weaken (from a very expensive level) over time.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The set of economic policies that Trump is pursuing are confusing and damaging to long term American growth and the fabric of its society (his ‘big, beautiful’ budget bill will disproportionately favour wealthy over poorer households). Moreover, any sense of accountability has been snuffed out and corruption is shamelessly creeping into public life (Evan Osnos’&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/06/02/donald-trumps-politics-of-plunder__;!!O22_8FOSssc!juvOJtZr3RUEM_mrH3aYM86OX1fITUt1AXFU8Tdlf8DjmWdCWxYSzjaoWS1F39_Nn50V1S8NWoX_q4S_ifU1SSMI$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;article in the New Yorker&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;on this topic is excellent). In short, America risks taking on the economic traits of a badly run emerging economy (look at how the Turkish lira and bond market have performed in the past five years as an extreme comparison).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To take the long view, Trump has decisively smashed the Bretton Woods system that had elevated the US financial system to be first amongst equals. The Bretton Woods conference was a tussle between Britain and America to shape the new world financial order and with it, bodies like the IMF. The US was very much the winner, and effectively the meeting formalised the transfer of ‘world power’ from Britain to the US, or as Keynes (Britain’s chief negotiator) wrote to his mother ‘In another year’s time we shall have forfeited the claim we had staked out in the New World and in exchange this country will be mortgaged to America’. Keynes job was to negotiate a deal for Britain that would rescue it from ‘losing face altogether and appearing to capitulate completely to dollar diplomacy.”&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From this point onwards, American financial dominance grew, manifested in the broad international use of its currency which has risen to a very particular place as the linchpin of the financial system. Indeed, one of the most important tenets of the twentieth-century world order and the rise of globalization has been the position of the dollar as the international reserve currency.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The dollar has become so important to the financial system, that two economists (Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Hélène Rey) have taken the notion of ‘exorbitant privilege’ a step further in a&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/cepr.org/publications/dp16944__;!!O22_8FOSssc!juvOJtZr3RUEM_mrH3aYM86OX1fITUt1AXFU8Tdlf8DjmWdCWxYSzjaoWS1F39_Nn50V1S8NWoX_q4S_iYZS5Xqm$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;relatively recent paper&lt;/a&gt;, and&nbsp;introduced the idea of ‘exorbitant duty’, which refers to the role that the dollar and US financial system play in times of crisis as the provider of a safe haven, even when those crises emanate from the US itself. Alarmingly, there is a section in the trump budget (sec. 899) that permits the administration to tax holders of US assets in certain circumstances, which can only erode confidence further.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The question then is which assets and currencies stand to benefit from a less ‘privileged dollar’. First, my sense is that when something goes wrong in emerging countries like Turkey, capital flows to countries like Switzerland (simply because much of it is held by a small number of individuals). As far as much greater institutional flows are concerned, the obvious destination should be the euro-zone. But this is not the case. At the end of 2024, I spent a week in Singapore and also the UAE and was surprised by the number of investors who considered the euro-zone as barely investable, this might reflect some ignorance on their part, but it is also redolent of a greater problem of international credibility for the euro-zone.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that context I was interested to see that Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB gave a very good speech on currencies in Berlin on Monday 26th, entitled ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2025/html/ecb.sp250526*d8d4541ce5.en.html__;fg!!O22_8FOSssc!juvOJtZr3RUEM_mrH3aYM86OX1fITUt1AXFU8Tdlf8DjmWdCWxYSzjaoWS1F39_Nn50V1S8NWoX_q4S_iaghNnvs$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Earning Influence – lessons from the history of international currencies&lt;/a&gt;’. In the speech she noted three properties of dominant currencies: &nbsp;they are issued by large economies (zones), they have deep pools of financial assets which foreigners can buy, and they are backed by sound legal systems.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are two important contemporaneous facets to the speech: first, the expectation that the actions of the Trump administration will structurally weaken the dollar; and the second, the very grown-up admission by the ECB president that the euro-zone (Bulgaria will become a member in 2026) has failed to deepen its capital markets and become the provider of safe assets in an increasingly unsafe world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The backdrop to these comments is a renewed push by the euro-zone on capital markets union, or the savings and investment union (SIU) as it is now called. In essence it has three components – single regulators across EU financial services, the creation of poles of expertise in different EU financial capitals (i.e. Amsterdam is the equity hub, Paris is where PE is, etc) and the sanctioning of retail savings and pensions flows into private assets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In many respects, SIU is a strange phenomenon – a policy critical to the future of Europe that most Europeans have very little attention span for (who would blame them). Apart from the releasing of hundreds of billions of euros in German savings banks for example, into private and private investments, what Europe also needs is a structural shift in the appetite for risk. For that to happen, we might need a European Donald Trump.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Sunday View | The End of Privilege

&lt;p&gt;In today’s hectic world there is an ever-growing list of stressors that weigh on our minds. When asked to identify sources of stress, money emerges as a recurring theme. As a personal financial adviser, I often find myself acting as a coach and mentor, helping clients make informed decisions and keeping them on the path to financial wellbeing.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Renowned satirist Jonathan Swift once famously said, “A wise person should have money in their head, but not in their heart.” By effectively managing our money, we gain control over our finances, creating opportunities for personal and professional growth, and helping us attain that all important peace of mind.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Working with the right adviser can help coordinate all aspects of your financial life so you can focus on what is most important to you and making the right choices in life for you and your family. It is an ongoing relationship built on trust and, when done correctly, your adviser will become an integral part of your life, your counsel for financial and more importantly life decisions. You can take comfort knowing that they will have the time, attention, and expertise to address every aspect of your finances while you focus on living.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Peace of Mind&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A recent study by the Financial Planning Standards Board (FPSB) (1) revealed that clients who work with a Certified Financial Planner experience a significantly higher quality of life. These clients report increased confidence and satisfaction regarding their financial situations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Furthermore, the study identified “reducing financial worries and stress” as one of the top three benefits that financial planners provide to their clients. This is especially significant in Ireland, which has a rich tapestry of culture, values, and behaviours that shape how we approach wealth and financial management.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What Keeps You up at Night?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Clients often remark that they appreciate the clarity and focus they get from a financial planning meeting. By looking at the bigger picture, we move the conversation away from the spread sheet and facilitate those deeper conversations about a client’s concerns and aspirations. What’s on your mind? What do you want to achieve in life and how can we help you get there?&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Typically, your financial plan should establish important long term personal financial goals and shorter-term objectives. A long-term goal might be starting to save for your child’s future or achieving a particular income level in retirement. A typical shorter-term objective may be to reduce debt or increase pension savings. Your plan sets out your goals and describes a clear ‘route map’ of what you need to do to achieve them. Using financial modelling software, we build a picture of what your financial future might look like and work through accumulation strategies or simply give you the peace of mind that you are on track.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Additionally, your financial plan might include other practical steps such as ensuring you have an up-to date will in place or an enduring power of attorney.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your financial legacy and efficiently passing on wealth might also be an important consideration and ensuring that you have the right structures in place to do so tax efficiently may be a priority for you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Behavioural Aspect of Wealth Management&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many individuals carry beliefs about money that can hinder their financial success. For some clients, cultural attitudes towards wealth may instil feelings of guilt or fear of judgment. Partnering with our clients and coaching them on these limiting beliefs, enables them to adopt a more empowering mindset towards wealth accumulation and management.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, in Ireland there is a cultural reticence for people to invest beyond traditional bank deposits and that can hold us back as a country. This can often result in missed opportunities for growth, leading to financial uncertainty in the long run.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In contrast, a cohesive financial plan including an investment plan tailored to your goals can offer potential for higher returns, helping you build wealth more effectively. Knowing that your finances are actively working towards your future can reduce financial stress, contributing to greater peace of mind.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio advisers are also here to help clients navigate the stress and anxiety that sometimes accompanies financial decisions. Understanding what drives emotional reactions can lead to more rational and well-thought-out investment choices.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Top 5 Benefits of Working with a Financial Planner&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;(1)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. Improved Financial Wellbeing and Peace of Mind: Knowing your finances are in order allows you to sleep soundly, free from the anxieties of unexpected financial troubles.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2. Simplified Financial Matters: Financial planners help demystify complex financial concepts, making it easier for clients to understand and manage their finances.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;3. Enhanced Confidence in Financial Decisions: With expert guidance, clients can make informed decisions, reducing the stress and uncertainty often associated with managing money.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;4. Increased Financial Freedom and Control: Effective financial planning provides clients with a sense of control over their financial future, leading to a more empowered and relaxed lifestyle.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;5. Goal Setting and Achievement: Financial planners help clients establish and reach their personal and financial goals, contributing to overall life satisfaction and happiness.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we take a holistic view. Beyond financial advice, we consider and understand your life goals, ensuring that our advice and your financial plan align with your broader life aspirations. If you want to learn more, speak with a Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch with us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Rowena Kenny is a Qualified Financial Adviser, Chartered Accountant and Certified Life Coach with a background in Tax, Law, Business, Nursing and Fashion Design. Currently working in Unio Wealth Management, Rowena advises High Net Worth clients on savings and investments, life assurance, pensions, retirement planning and estate planning in line with client life goals and aspirations.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] FPSB Value Of Financial Planning Global Consumer Research 2023&lt;/p&gt;

Achieving Financial Peace of Mind

&lt;p&gt;In this article Andy Dixon, Head of Unio’s Independent Wealth and Family Office, and Richard White, Head of Institutional Business, explore the changes brought about by the Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) Act 2015, which aims to provide better support for individuals transitioning from a wardship, who may need assistance in making financial, legal, or healthcare decisions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What has changed?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) Act 2015 has replaced the old wardship system, fully commenced on 26th April 2023.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-A new public body called the Decision Support Service (DSS) now helps adults who may need support in making financial, legal, or healthcare decisions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-If someone is unable to manage their own finances, the court may appoint a Decision-Making Representative (DMR) to help or act on their behalf.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These changes aim to give people more control and support, while ensuring their funds are used in their best interests.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Why You May Need Financial Advice&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you have received a settlement, managing that money wisely is essential. Without the right plan, the money can be put at risk—through unsuitable investments, tax issues, or even loss of access to state supports.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio provides specialised financial advice for people and families in this exact situation. Our goal is simple: to help your settlement last a lifetime and provide peace of mind.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How Unio Can Help&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We work with individuals, families, and appointed representatives to build a financial plan that fits your life. Here’s what we do:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Create a Lifetime Financial Plan: We help you understand how long the settlement will last, how to cover care costs, and what you can afford in the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Manage Investments Safely and Sensibly: We look after your money with a focus on low-risk, steady income—so you’re protected from ups and downs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Work With Your Legal and Care Team: If you have a solicitor, a DMR, or a medical case manager, we will work alongside them, so everything stays aligned.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Provide Clear and Ongoing Support: We speak in plain language, we are always here to help, and are in this with you, for the long run.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;You Are Not Alone on This Journey&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It can feel overwhelming having to manage a large award after a life-changing event. At Unio, our team deals with individuals like you, with families just like yours—facing new responsibilities and doing their best to make the right decisions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our job is to provide you with expert guidance—so your financial future is secure, and your focus can return to living life on your terms.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We understand how personal and emotional this journey can be. Our goal is to give you the confidence and clarity you need to move forward knowing your financial future is in safe hands.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Get in Touch&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you’d like to speak with someone who understands your situation and can help you make the most of your compensation award, we are here to help.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Andy Dixon is head of Independent Wealth and Family Office and &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Andy%20Dixon&amp;segment=Independent%20Wealth%20and%20Family%20Office&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Richard White is head of Unio’s Institutional Business team and&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Richard%20White&amp;segment=Institutional%20Business&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

A New Era -The End of Wardship

&lt;p&gt;At this month's Unio Global Macro Council(GMC), the topic was the weaker dollar: how the Trump administration's isolationist policies are leading to a weaker dollar, influenced by tariffs and a retreat from financial diplomacy, prompting investors to diversify away from U.S. assets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We were delighted to be joined by guest speakers Peter Kinsella, Global Head of FX Strategy at Union Bancaire Priveé (UBP) and Gautam Kalani, FX Strategist/Portfolio Manager at BlueBay Asset Management. Thank you both for your valued input.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read this month's GMC Outlook below or &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-End-of-Privilege-Unio-GMC-May-2025-Final.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;download the report here. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;A New Era&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The American economics professor Kenneth Rogoff, co-author of a well-known text on debt ‘This Time it’s Different’, has a new book out entitled ‘Our Dollar, Your Problem’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The title is a play on a comment that the US Treasury Secretary, John Connally, made to his European counterparts in 1971, that the dollar ‘is our currency but your problem’ in the sense that the strength of the dollar and its growing role as the lynchpin of the global financial system, was simply something that other countries would have to contend with. Giscard d’Estaing, then French finance minister, referred to this as ‘exorbitant privilege’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The new Trump administration, and specifically the policies announced since late January, point to a more isolationist America, as well as a more selfish financial hegemon.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From the point of view of the dollar, at the start of this year it traded at historically, extremely expensive levels (compared to a basket of trade partner currencies), and it has simply dropped to ‘over-valued’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The risk from here is that a long period of trend dollar strength (going back to 2012), may now come to an end, as investors in particular begin to allocate away from US assets towards competing safe havens (core euro-zone bonds in the context of the Moody’s US debt downgrade) and yielding assets in the case of EM debt, as well as structurally cheaper currencies like the Japanese yen.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The fundamental case for the dollar is not strong – it is expensive, undercut by growing fiscal imbalances, and it has been the beneficiary of massive asset flows, which are now ebbing.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is now the negative catalyst of an administration that desires a weaker dollar, that is pursuing dollar negative policies (tariffs) and that questions the role of the US as the fulcrum of the financial system.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For instance, other central banks such as the ECB may start to question the role of the Federal Reserve as the financial system’s crisis manager and provider of dollar swap lines.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Outlook&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the near term, with the weaker dollar becoming the consensus view amongst economists, there may be a near-term bounce in the dollar as the economic effect of tariffs on growth takes its toll on interest rate futures. However, several factors will weigh on the dollar in the medium to long term: the retreat of the U.S. from financial diplomacy; a stated policy goal of weakening the dollar; the likelihood that European, Japanese, and other Asian investors will need to diversify away from U.S. assets; and the inevitable gravity of expensive valuations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Our View&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we do not see a sharp drop in the dollar; rather, we are observing a steady rise in dollar hedging activity, greater demand for cheap currencies, increased flows to Europe and emerging market assets and potentially more FX volatility.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The End of Privilege

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In 2013, President George W. Bush referred to the Greeks as ‘Grecians’. At the time the ‘mis-speaks’ of the second Bush president provoked much amusement and some concern, though by comparison to the current occupant of the White House, the author of the disastrous invasion of Iraq is a strategic genius. The ‘Grecians’ came to mind this week when tuning into commentary by the Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba who compared his country’s fiscal situation to Greece in the early 2010’s as he rejected calls for tax cuts. By the staid standard of Japanese political pronouncements this is controversial and will help draw attention to the rise in Japanese interest rates in the past two weeks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ishiba’s comments are a harbinger of what is to come as we head into the ‘Age of Debt’, an era where indebtedness will dominate politics, economics and geopolitics. I have spent enough time in Greece over the years to know how brutally painful the consequences of austerity were, and how reckless economic policy had become in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Indeed, I recall the late years of the (Andreas) Papandreou period, when the social debate in Athens revolved around his younger, second wife ‘Mimi’. Papandreou was a very interesting character, and an example I often deploy to show that an education in economics is no guarantee of good policy – before he entered politics Papandreou was the Dean of the economics faculty at Stanford.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Often a finance minister will need political as well as policy skills. In his book, Stress Test, Tim Geithner, who was appointed Treasury Secretary by President Obama and who as head of the New York Fed had very good technical skills, worried aloud that he did not have the political skills for the role (arguably Robert Rubin was the master here) and the Obama team spent some time coaching him in this field.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There is a small but interesting literature on the backgrounds of finance ministers, which hypothesises that more left leaning governments (like Obama?) will choose economics experts to bolster their economic credibility, while right leaning governments often choose a finance minister with a financial services background – Donald Trump’s two Treasury Secretaries, Steven Mnuchin (ex-Goldman Sachs banker) and Scott Bessent (hedge fund manager who worked with George Soros for some time) fit this profile.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The point of my dragging up the cv’s of finance ministers is to state that difficult times are ahead, and will require political courage and policy acumen, most of all in the US as President Trump takes aim at the budget deficit. Unfortunately, his lead policy manoeuvre on tariffs have showed that he has neither of these attributes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the US, President Trump is driving hard to have his budget (Big, Beautiful Bill) passed by Congress. It contains some elements that are quite sinister such as the ending of an excise tax on gun silencers, and one particular policy I agree strongly with – the introduction of MAGA (Money Account for Growth and Advancement), whereby the Treasury would create tax preferred savings accounts for children and give each one an initial deposit of USD 1,000. Europe should do the same!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;However, the broad strokes of the budget look like they could rob many Americans of what they need most, notably MEDICAID. Worryingly from an economic point of view the budget is expected to add nearly USD 3.5 trillion to the budget deficit over the next ten years, according to a range of bodies from the Penn Wharton Budget Model to the Joint Committee on Taxation, and the implication is that the indebtedness of the US will rise further (estimates point to a historic debt to GDP ratio of 125% in ten years’ time). The Congressional Budget Office publishes an &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.cbo.gov/publication/61187__;!!O22_8FOSssc!mlEavoMYxezyDwEt0SMspSfFsvXydlGu3092uwQAHvyW6eZnKYcle0vnBPVe728tbkE1_zqzM-PVYZefO0aXe4py$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;intimidating chart&lt;/a&gt; that puts this in perspective and shows that the debt to GDP ratio in the US has only been higher (going all the way back to 1790) in the post-World War II period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This is the daunting backdrop to two poor bond auctions last week (demand for US and Japanese bonds was well below the norm). In this respect, the case of Greece is instructive – notably the devastating effect of forced austerity, the difficulty in trying to make policy when a government has lost the confidence of markets and the reality that once this confidence is lost, it can take time to regain it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ultimately, Greece was a small economy in the scheme of things, though its membership of the euro made it systematically important. The US and Japan are on a different scale altogether.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;We are all Grecians now.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Grecians

&lt;p&gt;It is likely that many of the people protesting for Palestine in US universities will have read Edward Said’s book ‘Orientalism’ or at least will have an idea who he was. It is also likely that they will have heard of Donald Trump, whose ire at these protesters has led to an unexpected fiscal crackdown on many prominent US universities including Columbia, where Said used to teach (see our recent note ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/university-challenge&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;University Challenge’&lt;/a&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In brief, the tack of Orientalism was to criticise the construction of a superior, Westernised view of the Middle East (the term was coined by navigators in the US Navy), that is then internalised by members of the Middle Eastern elite. At this broad level, the theory was attractive, but runs into many practical difficulties such as Said’s downplaying the role of women, and the failure of many Middle Eastern countries to develop economically and to nurture the kinds of open society that Said liked to live in.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As with many facets of the debate around the Middle East, ‘Orientalism’ has become a badge of honour for many, and a contentious identifier for others, and there is a risk that many people who hold the ‘Orientalist’ view, have not updated their outlook for say the rise of Al Qaeda in the broad region and the effective domination in the last decade, of Palestinians by Hamas.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I doubt that Donald Trump has read ‘Orientalism’ (I think his speechwriter might have though) but in the light of the Western perspective of the Middle East, his visit to Saudi Arabia was striking in two respects.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, like any clever politician, he confirmed the view that several countries in the region want to have of themselves.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;– ‘&lt;em&gt;this great transformation has not come from Western interventionists … giving you lectures on how to live or how to govern your own affairs. No, the gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by the so-called ‘nation-builders,’ ‘neo-cons,’ or ‘liberal non-profits,’ …instead, the birth of a modern Middle East has been brought about by the people of the region themselves’.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To a degree, Trump’s view is not correct. The economies of the UAE and KSA were built on Western know-how (see David Mulford’s ‘Packing for India’ for example), and many of the financial institutions at least have mimicked those in the US and UK. Also, a large number of army officers from the region have been trained in imperialist bastions such as Sandhurst.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, the miraculous growth of these countries can be ascribed to local vision and leadership, on a scale only matched by Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore. And, consistent with the ‘Orientalism’ thesis, many people in the West do not acknowledge the rising institutional role that Abu Dhabi plays in the region, or the extent to which Mohammed bin Saman has become a hero for the youth in his country. In that regard, we might say that the model the Middle Eastern countries have followed is the ‘Sinatra Model’ (‘do it my own way’) with a slight American twist.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The President’s address struck a chord because in the Emirates and the KSA in particular, there is a growing pride and independence in what these countries have achieved economically, and on my last visit there a few months ago, I found that there was little patience on the part of government officials to for example, have EU regulatory standards imposed on joint investment projects. In a note I wrote at the time I flagged how locals had developed their own acronym of the West (&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/w-e-n-a&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;W.E.N.A.),&lt;/a&gt; surely proof that the ideas in ‘Orientalism’ are dated.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Trump’s speech will be a big disappointment for those who believe in institutions and the idea of nation-building, and in that regard will turn on its head the efforts of so many in the State Department and other institutions. Neither does it augur well for current day American institutions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The speech also brings into focus what Prof Afshin Molavi refers to as the existence of ‘two Middle Easts’, namely a geopolitical one (sustained by American defence agreements) and an economic one. Chillingly in the context of the annihilation of Gaza, the Trump speech has tilted the momentum towards the economic version, and I feel that many people in Europe vastly underestimate the focus that governments in the region have on the economic prize, as opposed to the humanitarian catastrophe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Various countries in the region from Qatar to Syria, may now find themselves the beneficiaries of Mr Trump’s lack of attachment to history and the democratic model, and it is very likely that the region known broadly as the Middle East will be one of the very few in the world to profit from his presidency, and will spearhead a move towards a model of materialistic, technocentric non-democracies, that some of Mr Trump’s supporters have in mind for the USA.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The emergence of the ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Working-with-Gulf-states-India-can-build-a-new-center-of-power__;!!O22_8FOSssc!iXzV3dFW3SGLaEXn4R3M2k61If2kDBC1LJtjxkc2JozserUfPYl51xL6Osced_P6blRtNu-GdGegahlNb3IAMMYh$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Fourth Pole’&lt;/a&gt;, a prospective multipolar zone that will become the beneficiary of trade tensions between the ‘older’ multipolar zones (US, EU, Asia), is still very much on track, but as it develops it will increasingly need institutions, markets, rules and means of binding people to the region, none of which Mr Trump can help with.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Orientalism

&lt;p&gt;David O’Connell, a private client adviser in Unio’s Corporate and Company Executives team, discusses the risks associated with holding a single stock and the importance of diversification. Understanding how equity compensation works is essential, along with seeking professional advice to incorporate your company shares into a broader financial plan. A 4-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Key Considerations for Senior Leaders in Irish Multinationals&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For many senior leaders in Ireland’s multinational and large corporate sectors, equity compensation has become an increasingly common component of their overall remuneration. Whether it’s stock options, or other incentive schemes, they all share one important trait: they tie your personal financial future even closer to your employer’s fortunes. This isn’t an explainer on company shares — plenty of excellent resources already exist - instead, we want to explore a simpler, yet often overlooked question: &quot;Should you actually hold on to your company shares?&quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The €50,000 Question…..&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When a client tells me they’ve received company shares, I ask them a simple question:&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“If your employer handed you a €50,000 bonus in cash, would your first move be to ring a stockbroker and buy your company’s shares?”&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Almost without exception, the answer is no. If that’s the case, why leave it all tied up in stock you didn’t actively choose to buy in the first place?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equity compensation is just another form of bonus — it just happens to be paid in shares. If you wouldn’t voluntarily put a lump sum of your own money into your company’s stock, then it’s worth questioning whether it’s wise to let such a significant portion of your wealth remain there, just because it was given to you that way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Hidden Concentration Risk&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We often talk about diversification in investment portfolios, but it’s surprising how little this is applied when it comes to equity compensation. Holding one stock — especially your employer’s — creates a serious concentration risk.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Let’s look at some of Ireland’s major multinational employers offering stock options: Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Airbnb. They are all market leaders, yet even Apple has seen its stock fall 17% since the start of the year. No company, no matter how big, is immune to volatility.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We’ve started looking at the difference in volatility between holding single-company stock versus a diversified medium-risk investment fund. Early data points to a clear takeaway — diversification matters.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Layering Risk on Risk&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There’s also a broader issue at play. If your salary, bonus, career prospects, and equity compensation are all tied to one company, then your entire financial wellbeing is anchored to a single source. Lose your job, and not only is your income gone — you could also lose your unvested equity compensation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is a key point that’s often missed. Unvested stock options may be viewed as ‘future upside’, but they are also a potential loss if your employment is terminated before vesting. You’re not just investing in the company — you’re investing in the hope you’ll remain employed long enough to realise that value.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;It’s Complicated — Get the Right Advice&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The mechanics of equity compensation schemes vary widely, and the tax implications can be complex. Whether it’s the timing of vesting, the implications of capital gains, or the need to declare income correctly, tax advice is essential. Many people don’t even know what type of scheme they’re in — and that’s a red flag in itself.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It’s always best to work with both a wealth adviser and a tax professional who can look at the bigger picture — not just your investment exposure, but how your equity compensation fits into your broader financial plan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Final Thought&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equity compensation is a great benefit — but it's also a risk if misunderstood or left unmanaged. If you wouldn’t actively choose to invest heavily in your employer’s stock, it might be time to consider a strategy that better aligns with your long-term financial goals. At Unio Wealth Management, we help senior leaders make sense of the complexity—focusing on smart diversification, financial planning, and protecting what they’ve worked hard to earn.&quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;David O’Connell is a private client adviser in our Corporate and Company Executives team and &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=David%20Murphy&amp;segment=Corporate%20and%20Company%20Executives&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here&lt;/a&gt;.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Why Keeping All of Your Company Equity Might Be A Risky Move

&lt;p&gt;I vividly recall seeing Imran Khan give a speech in the mid-nineties, in an era where many sportsmen had what was described as colourful backgrounds, he stood out as particularly ‘Bond’ like – at the very top of his game as a cricketer and a ‘playboy’, as the saying goes (at the time he was engaged to Jemima Goldsmith). There are few people who have had such adventurous lives – and Khan’s is interesting for the ways in which he changed tack – towards Islam and politics (he served as Pakistani prime minister from 2018-2022) and his change of fortune (he is currently in solitary confinement in a Pakistani prison).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whilst Khan’s rise and fall is complex, he ultimately fell foul of the Pakistani security establishment who allegedly became uncomfortable when Khan condemned foreign (US) influence in Pakistani public life. Khan was also the victim of an assassination attempt in 2022, something that has marked Pakistani politics (Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in 2007 and her father Zulfikar was executed in 1977).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this regard, one of the few constants in Pakistani politics has been the ever-present role of the security services in the affairs of the state, and specifically their tactic of creating private armies and terror groups. This has embarrassed them on at least two occasions - the discovery that Osama bin Laden was living in near plain sight in Pakistan and repeated attacks by the Taliban inside Pakistan. Add to that the 2008 Mumbai attacks perpetrated by Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the sense grows that Pakistan has been playing a dangerous game.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this regard, India’s response to the killing of 26 people in Pahalgam (in Indian controlled Kashmir) took aim, it said, at terrorist infrastructure, in the most serious escalation between the two countries since the very early 1970’s. The subject of this note is not to predict how this conflict will play out – it could be costly, bloody and messy (India has reportedly lost five jets in its initial sortie) but to wonder why this confrontation is happening now and how much of this has to do with the alliances that the two countries have struck.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While India and Pakistan are both members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Pakistan is the much more active member and very close to China, Iran and Russia. While a lot of Indian hardware comes from Russia, its foreign policy projects the country as an independent actor, India is aiming for a close relationship with the US with whom it may sign a very high level trade deal (it has just completed a modest trade agreement with the UK).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is very likely that under a different diplomatic regime, the Pahalgam attack would have been met with intensive diplomatic engagement by the US—with India, whom it regards as an ally, and Pakistan, which it funds generously. This has not happened this time, and the tempo of involvement of the White House in this particular regional conflict has not been on a par with other administrations. It is so poor that Vice President Vance has declared, in a most un-Kissinger like manner, that ‘it is none of our business’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, the recent death of Joseph Nye, the political scientist who developed the term ‘soft power’ and who wrote much about America’s engagement with the rest of the world is a reminder that one of the key elements in the old, globalised world order was America’s role as a policeman – with a near monopoly over deadly force and a very active, alert diplomatic corps. An example of this can be found in Brad Hope and Justin Scheck’s book ‘Blood &amp; Oil’ that describes the rise of Mohammed bin Salman as the ruler of Saudi Arabia. For decades the US has steered Saudi diplomacy, and Saudi rulers have guided America in the region. However, the book describes in some detail the lack of strategic direction of the first Trump administration in the military and diplomatic affairs of Saudi Arabia, beyond the organisation of a lavish welcome ceremony for a Trump visit to the Kingdom.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second Trump administration looks set to entirely do away with the role of world policeman, and cynics might say, replace it with the role of rent collector. As such, the geopolitical risk premium will rise, and may help to explain why there are at least two conflicts where basic needs (water) are being weaponized (in Gaza and India/Pakistan). When it played the role of world policeman, the US kept the peace, much to its own advantage.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now in the context of the very obvious dropping of moral guardrails around international relations, other countries will be less bound by a sense of world order, emboldened by an arms race, and will start to take risks and make mistakes. India-Pakistan is a very dangerous case of this, and one that draws into focus the trade-off between the cost to America’s role as world policeman, and the global ‘peace’ dividend it brought.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Policeman Premium

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This week, Mike examines the challenges facing universities amid Trump-era funding cuts in the US, calling for improved funding, smaller, more focussed institutions, and a renewed commitment to innovation and producing educated, active citizens.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As someone who has spent a lot (some would say too much) of his life in universities, I have been following the US president’s attack on Harvard in particular, and the third level sector in general. Granted the president’s wish to boost investment in the US economy, snuffing out the independence and funding for universities is the last place he should start (a recent headline from NBC News captured the illogic of this ‘New images could change cancer diagnostics but ICE detained Harvard scientist who analyses them’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In my own experience, universities are one of the best places in our societies – somewhere for young people to grow up, to learn and if they stay on as post-graduates, to produce knowledge. The best universities are smaller, have plenty of distractions for students (sports and clubs) and adequate accommodation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The US system at least appears to have figured out that most young people don’t necessarily know what they want to specialise in (or what occupation to pursue), so that undergraduates can mix various course options in their early years, before channelling themselves into subjects they find stimulating. That is not the case in Ireland and Britain, but labour markets are somewhat forgiving, such that someone with a good history degree could end up working in banking.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In contrast, the French system is based around universities that are generally too big, don’t have enough by way of extracurricular activities, and funnel students towards occupations where they may be unhappily trapped, unless of course, a student manages to make it to an elite school, whereupon they will be happily funnelled into the upper reaches of French society. Germany is not dissimilar, and in places more archaic and hierarchical, though the older universities like Heidelberg and Marburg are more conduits into professions like law than public life.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At the risk of sounding overly idealistic, my sense is that universities in the US and Europe have changed in at least two respects in the past two decades.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Many of them seem to behave as if they are businesses rather than public goods, and in some cases the heads of universities have appeared to use their roles as career steppingstones. At the same time, too many universities have grown too quickly in particular taking in international students (to help pay the bills) who are less invested in college life, without at the same time investing in teaching staff and well-planned accommodation. One risk that emanates from these trends is that students, in some cases, feel like consumers and are treated as such, and that this produces a poor student-teacher relationship. Social media and AI do not help at all in this regard.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It used to be that universities could ignore the world beyond them, and vice versa. Disputes within universities were typically, and still are, vicious, because as Henry Kissinger said, there is so little at stake. CP Snow’s book ‘The Masters’ is a good example, and any readers wanting some light relief this weekend should read Tom Sharpe’s ‘Porterhouse Blue’ (the ITV tv series is even better).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The Trump administration’s attack on universities brings them into the spotlight and opens up the disturbing scenario that American universities follow the examples set in Turkey and Hungary. In Hungary, a country with a brilliant academic pedigree, Viktor Orban (who won a Soros funded place at Oxford) has corrupted, bullied and undercut universities. With seven of the top ten universities in the world located in the US (and half of the top 50 Time Higher Education rankings), the assault on university funding in the US is troubling in many ways and worrying that relatively few academics have reacted so far.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The saving grace of the larger US universities is their alumni base and large endowments, which puts them in a less vulnerable position than universities in Europe. Still, with colleges like MIT and Georgia Tech heavily dependent on government funding for research in the nuclear, semiconductor and space fields, there is plenty to worry about, and the risk is that the US is on the verge of a negative innovation shock.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;While universities are highly diverse, the advent of this new world order will bring several changes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is that in democratic countries, the onus on universities to produce educated, active citizens will be greater, and it might be that more debate than ‘safe spaces’ on campus is a good thing. By extension, there should be a greater obligation on governments to provide (no strings attached) funding for universities, as opposed to forcing them to go cap in hand to industry or wealthy Asian parents. If European governments are serious about enacting the Draghi reforms (and on capitalising on a brain drain from the US) they need to invest much, much more in universities. Switzerland is the benchmark here.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;An extension of this is that there is an understanding that universities are a key part of the innovation process in dynamic economies (the countries with the highest number of STEM students per capita are Switzerland, the Nordics, Ireland and France), but that the state should not try to impose a policy model on them, rather allow good universities to quietly get on with their research.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second change is that many universities need to become smaller (the average size of the ten largest universities – excluding the Open University - in the UK is 40,000 students) and arguably more coherent in their focus. Relatedly, beyond early year undergraduates, I expect we will see a greater focus on specialisation and excellence in the sense that in a given country or region (Ireland is the example I have in mind) one university will be the ‘best’ at medicine, and another the ‘best’ at engineering. The constituent parts of the University of London, like Imperial and Kings, are good examples.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

University Challenge

&lt;p&gt;With redundancies once again on the horizon, Jonathan Crosbie, client relationship manager in our Corporate and Company Executives team, writes about the critical importance of financial planning. Redundancy can be a challenging experience affecting individuals on multiple levels. Understanding and managing the technical aspects of redundancy, while implementing effective strategies can help individuals navigate this transition more successfully, both financially and emotionally. A 3-minute read.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;If You Fail to Plan, You Are Planning to Fail&quot; - Benjamin Franklin&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we take a holistic view. Beyond the technical financial advice, we consider and understand your life goals, ensuring that our advice and your financial plan align with your broader life aspirations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Understanding Redundancy Packages in Ireland&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Redundancy packages in Ireland often consist of two main components:&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. Statutory Redundancy (which is generally tax free)&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;and&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2. Ex Gratia Payments (are generally subject to tax)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are 3 exemptions and reliefs available that can reduce the amount of tax:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Basic Exemption&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Increased Exemption&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Standard Capital Superannuation Benefit (SCSB)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Increased Exemption and the SCSB, generally provide a greater relief to the tax liable, however it is crucial to be aware that these reliefs can impact the tax benefits from your pension.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Managing Your Pension During Redundancy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When an employee takes redundancy; their employer will stop making contributions to their workplace pension (if a pension scheme is in place). However, the pension savings accumulated up to that point (generally) remain the property of the employee. The individual has options regarding their pension:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. Leave the pension with the current provider&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2. Transfer the pension to a new provider&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;3. Defer the decision and potentially transfer later&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Addressing Emotional Consequences&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While dealing with the technical aspects of redundancy is critical for long-term stability, addressing the emotional consequences is equally important for your own wellbeing and resilience. Typical feelings of anxiety and fear, loss of identity, sadness, loss of routine, and career reassessment are all typical reactions.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A recent study by the Financial Planning Standards Board (FPSB)* identified “reducing financial worries and stress” as one of the top three benefits that financial planners provide to their clients.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;By implementing and guiding you on financial planning strategies, Unio Wealth Management can ensure you make more informed decisions to create a solid foundation to address both the technical and emotional consequences of redundancy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How Your Unio Adviser can help&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You know what is important to you and your family and it is essential that your money is working to meet those goals. With a robust financial plan in place, it can allow you to make more informed decisions on the things that really matter.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Within the Unio Wealth Plan, we simplify:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The tax implications of taking a redundancy&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Your entitlements and the employer’s offer&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The connection between a redundancy and your pension&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The relationship between emergency, short, and long-term financial needs, aligned with life goals&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Cashflow and Net Worth implications during the process.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Facing redundancy can feel overwhelming, but Unio is here to offer clear, structured financial planning and guidance to help you stay focused on what truly matters. To learn more, reach out to your adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;contact us directly.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Jonathan Crosbie is a client relationship manager in our Corporate and Company Executives team and &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Jonathan%20Crosbie&amp;segment=Corporate%20and%20Company%20Executives&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;*FPSB Value of Financial Planning Global Consumer Research 2023.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/navigating-redundancy-in-the-tech-sector&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Further reading: Navigating Redundancy in the Tech Sector by Conor Jordan&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Smart Strategies for Redundancy

&lt;p&gt;This month's Unio Outlook provides an analysis of the current financial market volatility - the impact of US trade policies and the potential for long-term investment opportunities.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Valuations Normalising&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Investors are now becoming used to extreme levels of volatility in financial markets as the White House deepens its trade war with China and President Trump actively undermines the independence of the Federal Reserve.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our concern is that if the tariff stand-off persists, the global economy and in particular the US, faces a difficult recession. In addition, from a structural point of view, the undermining of US financial credibility from within, risks the pre-eminence of the dollar and the role of Treasuries as the lynchpin of the international financial system (which in turn may prove supportive for German, Dutch and Irish bonds for example).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, the unique aspect of this crisis is that it is man-made, and in the short but meaningful tradition of decision making by this president, could be easily reversed. Yet, while policy is unpredictable, there are some long-term trend changes worth bearing in mind from an investment strategy perspective.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is that in this post-globalized world, policy uncertainty will likely be high for some time to come. This is not simply a function of US macro policy, but also reflects a world where Russia is a major security threat to Europe, and where institutions like the IMF and WTO (World Trade Organisation) are becoming irrelevant, and where the EU is rebuilding its security apparatus.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second long term factor is a wariness towards US assets. The extreme rally in gold is a sign that investors are pricing in a less exceptional role for the US in the global financial system, and a less exalted reach of US multinationals across the global economy. We had started to adjust our portfolio away from US assets (towards European) in December and will likely stick with this stance until the tariff ‘war’ is definitively over.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Implications&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From the point of view of investors, we ask whether this new world is now priced into market prices, and whether bargains are emerging (we are overweight cash currently). Small-cap companies (firms with a market capitalisation of USD 5bn and below) are a good guide here, because unlike the mega-cap social media stocks, they offer a much better representation of the economy. Valuations (price to earnings ratio for instance) for small-caps are now below average levels, though not quite as low as they have been in previous recessions. Still, from a long-term point of view lower valuations make life easier for asset allocations as they provide the chance to invest capital in a steady way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Our View&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our sense overall, is that this sell-off is a man-made policy error, where a rapidly growing number of actors (Wall St, Federal Reserve for example) are pushing back on the actions of the White House. This suggests that policy capitulation might come before market capitulation, and backtracking by both the Treasury Secretary and President Trump suggests that the White House is ‘blinking’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having started the year with a cautious stance, we maintain this outlook but are ready to be more opportunistic. With broad market valuations becoming more attractive now, our instinct is to add to global equities if recent market lows (and volatility highs) are tested. Strategically, we are starting to think of a world where US assets are less exceptional.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Who-blinks-first-Unio-Outlook-April-2025.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Unio Outlook April 2025 PDF for download.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Unio Outlook April 2025 is the output of this month's Unio Investment Committee(IC) meeting with views derived from the Unio Global Macro Council (GMC).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guard, guide and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Who Blinks First?

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I had intended to write about universities this week but, strolling through the City of London, I was surprised, shocked even, to find myself on Trump Street, and then amused to see that it is joined by Russia Row.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My first thought was that this was part of a grand plan by the British establishment ahead of President Trump’s visit to London in September, the idea being to stage an event at the nearby Guildhall and to then tell the president that a nearby street had been named after him. Trump Street was apparently named so because several trumpet makers lived there in the 18th&nbsp;century, but let’s ignore that for the time being.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Yet, the far more meaningful coincidence of Trump Street is its proximity to Gresham Street.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Sir Thomas Gresham was a trader and financier in 16th&nbsp;century London, at a time when coffee houses in the lanes around the Royal Exchange formed the basis of what is known as the City. Gresham was an important player in Queen Elizabeth I’s economy, and his emblem – a grasshopper – is still present in various parts of the City (there is a giant-sized golden grasshopper on the roof of the Royal Exchange….if you can dare to make it up there).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;While Gresham’s imprint can be seen across the City, he is remembered by Gresham’s Law which was named after him and states ‘bad money will drive out the good’. Gresham’s Law which echoes similar observations from Copernicus and other scientists through the ages is founded on the idea that in an economy where coins with the same face value but that are made from different base metals (say nickel and copper) there is a tendency for traders to hoard the coins made of the more valuable metal and to circulate lower quality coins. Bad coins stay in circulation, good ones are re-commoditized. From an economics point of view the law is conditioned on all the coins (of variable quality) having the same face value.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Unlike the 16th&nbsp;century, today, coins have the same physical consistency and in general there is little incentive for people to shave bits off coins (historically coins have serrated edges to prevent this) but broadly Gresham’s Law is applicable in different domains.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Think of how cheap goods (made under questionable labour conditions) have forced quality players out of markets, or how in the run-up to the global financial crisis, low quality financial institutions offering generous loan conditions caused better quality banks to step back from lending. In both cases, regulation or policing of markets is necessary to ensure that ‘bad’ actors do not gain an advantage over good ones. Social media is another example, where it seems a lot of nonsense thrives at the expense of information.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Additionally, the idea of Gresham’s Law is applicable to politics, where in many countries it appears that political actors with extreme views and extreme modus operandi are forcing out ‘good’ ones in the sense that most normal people would be terrified of a career in politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Readers will guess that my argument is leading back to Washington. Bad behaviour, bad ideas and bad policies are infesting themselves in public life, the economy and markets – to the surprise of many ardent supporters of President Trump. What is not clear is whether this will result in an evacuation of capital and talent from the US, or whether there will be a counter-reaction. Gresham’s point in describing how bad money drives out good was to avoid the debasement of the currency (schilling), which, when Elizabeth I came to power, was already in a bad state. She appointed Gresham as a finance minister of sorts in 1560, and within a year he had ‘bad’ coins taken out of circulation and replaced them with money made from precious metal, the result of which was a dramatic improvement in Britain’s status as a trading and economic power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The lesson of this should be very clear today. As a final point, it is interesting to note, from the point of view of coins and money, that the ratio of gold (precious metal) to a cyclical commodity (copper) is the most stretched it has been since at least the 1980’s, suggesting that markets at least are thinking of Gresham’s Law.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Grasshopper

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;N'interrompez jamais un ennemi qui est en train de faire une erreur.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;During the Battle of Austerlitz, Napoleon quipped to one of his commanders (General Soult) that one should never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake. Austerlitz was one of Napoleon’s tactical triumphs but unwisely, some seven years later the Emperor gathered one of the largest armies ever assembled and crossed Russia. The Russians burnt Moscow, harassed the French army and then patiently waited for the cold weather to cruelly teach Napoleon the error of his way (Sylvain Tesson’s book ‘Berezina’ offers a lively account of the retreat from Russia).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In a similar vein, as another modern-day, would-be emperor careens from financial calamity to geopolitical catastrophe, my sense is that the world beyond America, is best served by waiting and watching.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the next two months the economic damage to America from the tariff campaign will become clear. The corporate earnings season has just started – some of the large banks have done well from the trading volumes created by market volatility – but as the focus turns to technology and other export focused firms, we can expect to see significant drops in earnings, a development that will make the still high valuation multiples for the US stock market hard to sustain. Relatedly, while investment banks are profiting from volatility, most of them are reporting that capital markets activity (public offerings, mergers and funding rounds for private equity deals) have stopped dead.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This is a shock for Wall St. With president Trump having installed a market trader as commerce secretary, a hedge fund manager as Treasury, a private equity titan in the defence department, and so on, capitalists might well have thought that the White House was on their side, but the annihilation of up to 8 trillion dollars in market capitalisation has proven them wrong. There is, I imagine, a limit to Wall St’s patience and the pushback on policy will grow.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As it does, the hard (as opposed to ‘soft’ survey) data is likely to worsen dramatically, and the US will enter into an economic breakdown. At the start of this year I had sifted through the IMF GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026, where uniquely they expected nearly all of the world’s economies to register positive growth. From this starting point, a global recession was a very low probability, but the Trump administration has blundered into one.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Now, policy makers in the US and abroad are realising that watching and waiting is the best way to entice Trump away from his tariff policy. There were signs of this on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve chair declared that tariffs would augment inflation and make it much harder for the central bank to cut rates. This statement represents quite the departure for a monetary authority that has greeted every flicker of economic trouble with lashings of cheap money. Mr Powell knows very well that it is not the job of a central bank to fix the mistakes of an errant policymaker, and very likely that a short, sharp market shock now might deter a great fiasco (and the credibility of the dollar) later.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In contrast, other central banks, who are unburdened by any sense of conflict of interest with Mr Trump, can feel much more free to cut rates into a coming recession, as the ECB did on Thursday. In that context, we may see the dollar strengthen in coming weeks, and much of the stress of the White House policies on the economy, transferred to the corporate bond market.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then a key, patient player in this unfolding drama is China which, whilst it has deep economic faultlines of its own, is politically and socially coherent enough to weather the onslaught from Washington. Like the Russians who took on Napoleon, China’s strategy is partly one of endurance, partly ‘guerrilla’ (think of rare earth export controls, supply chain manipulation leading to shortages of goods in the US) and a patient attitude to the market turmoil that is starting to undermine the financial credibility of the USA.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Europe may follow suit. Giorgia Meloni spent Thursday in the US with president Trump and then raced back to Rome to host JD Vance. Her visit was useful in terms of Italian and EU diplomacy, but the EC is carefully signalling to Washington that any negotiations on trade will have to be done through Brussels alone, which as the Brexit process revealed, is a hard defence to breach.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Napoleon left Moscow in the middle of October 1812, eventually to creep into Paris just before Christmas. His army was devastated, only 100,000 or so men from an initial force of 600,000 survived. Donald Trump is no Napoleon. In two months’ time the US economy may well be in a state of disarray, consumer confidence and confidence in the president will likely have plummeted further, and the world will be watching and waiting for his capitulation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Watching and Waiting

&lt;h1&gt;Business Owners – Are You Ready for Auto Enrolment?&nbsp;&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Webinar: Securing Your Future – Auto Enrolment and Retirement Strategies&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;📅 Date: 24th April 2025&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;🕒 Time: 11 am, 30 minutes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3294669446919082842&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Register now and secure your spot&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The proposed implementation date of ‘My Future Wealth’ is &lt;strong&gt;30 September 2025. &lt;/strong&gt;Comments by Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers this weekend indicate that this date is likely to be pushed back, giving business owners more time to prepare.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you're running a business and have employees, auto enrolment isn’t just a good idea – it’s a legal requirement. But navigating the rules, deadlines, and responsibilities can be a challenge. That’s why Unio SME is hosting a webinar designed specifically for business owners like you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What you’ll learn:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Your legal duties under auto enrolment&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Common pitfalls and how to avoid them&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• How to streamline the process and stay compliant&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Retirement strategies for business owners&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Q&amp;A with our experts&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whether you're new to auto enrolment or need a refresher, this session will leave you feeling confident and in control.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Presented by:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Brian Sexton, Head of Consulting, Unio Employee Benefits&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Niamh Bradley, Private Client Adviser, Unio SME, Unio Wealth Management&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Note that a recording will be made available after the event.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Auto Enrolment and Retirement Strategies

&lt;p&gt;In November 2008, in the darkest hour of the global financial crisis, Queen Elizabeth II asked an audience at the London School of Economics ‘Why did no one see it coming”. We might ask the same question today in respect of Donald Trump’s tariff war, where he has diminished the things that he was reputed to hold dear – the economy, the stock market and the dollar.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One disturbing template that might offer insight into the path that the American economy takes is Brexit. As noted by the current prime minister of Canada, Brexit was not the solution to the problems that Britain faces. Certainly, the disengagement of the US from the world trade system is becoming as soap operatic and sometimes ludicrous as Brexit was.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An even more pertinent example might be Britain at the turn of the 19th century when there was a palpable sense that the might of its empire was peaking. At the time tariffs and trade were widely debated, and leading politicians like Joseph Chamberlain proposed the idea of an ‘imperial preference’, a lower tariff on trade with its colonies, to create a trading zone that would buffer the rise of the US and Germany.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To a certain extent, tariffs and trade became the issue of the day, but in the 1906 general election the public voted overwhelmingly for liberal, open trade (less restrictive tariffs) candidates. This I suspect was also the intention of those who supported Donald Trump in November last – keep the economy and markets strong, whilst evening up the status quo (a little). That tariff rates set by the US (and China) are at levels only last seen in the 1920’s completes the shock, and the rhyme with history.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One reason tariffs were a popular policy tool one hundred years ago is that the fiscal side of the economy was not well developed (only a small proportion of Americans paid tax) and, in some cases, central banks did not exist. Today, tax systems are well developed, and as small, open economies show, they are the best mechanism to reduce inequality, and to entice investment, both stated objectives of the Treasury secretary.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This particular market crisis is interesting because it is nearly entirely man-made. Turkey has taken a similar path in recent years, all but eviscerating its bond market and currency, but these are inconsequential compared to the depth of US markets. Whilst the president has stepped nimbly and profitably (some say) away from the financial brink, he still risks contagion of his actions in a number of respects.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two such risks loom on the horizon, an economic war with China and a crisis of credibility in US financial assets.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We are now led to believe that ‘it was China all along’, but it would have been easier to tackle China with the support of America’s former allies in Canada, Japan, the UK and Europe.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For its part, China has plenty of tools to respond to the US with – it can allow its currency to weaken further and through supply chain disruption can inflict higher consumer prices, shortages of goods and lower (Chinese) demand on the US. Informal boycotts of American goods, investigations of US service firms and rare earth restrictions are just a few other tools at China’s disposal.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Should an economic war between the US and China materialise, my sense is that a supportive response from the Federal Reserve has been made less likely by Wednesday’s tariff capitulation by the White House, which demonstrates how arbitrary policy is under this administration.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the longer-run, the actions of the Trump team could manifest themselves in a capital crisis in the context of the way they have undermined confidence in the US and by extension its financial system. What the likes of Peter Navarro seem not to have grasped is that the quid pro quo of America’s trade deficit is its enormous financial power – the role of the dollar and Treasuries as lynchpins of the international financial system, the dominance of US financial systems and its integral role in the fabric of capital markets, and the capital that overseas investors provide them.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With Mr Trump behaving in the way that some might caricature as ‘emerging market’, If we apply an emerging market stock market valuation rating to US stocks, the SPX index would be half its current size for instance. Equally, the mid-week selloff in Treasuries which was most likely the result of hedge funds unwinding positions, but it is the poor performance of bonds that underlines the sceptical view that markets are starting to take of the administration.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, we may be at the beginning of a great unwind of American financial power.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Did no one see it coming?

&lt;p&gt;This is a recording of a live webinar entitled The Trump Tariffs Effect: Market Impacts &amp; Investment Strategies, which was broadcast live on Tuesday, April 8th, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/PlaFmA0dG-g?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hosted by: Áine McGroarty, Chief Commercial Officer and Mike O’Sullivan, Chief Investment Officer, Unio Wealth Management&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;During the 20 minutes call we covered:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- The economic impact of the new tariffs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Risk of potential recession and market volatility.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Investment strategies in uncertain times.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Audience Q&amp;A&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Trump Tariffs Effect

&lt;p&gt;I’ve spent much of the past quarter of the year zigzagging across Europe and the US, cursing Vladimir Lenin as I went. He is reputed to have coined the phrase ‘there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen’, which in turn has been repeated back to me wherever I went. I shouldn’t be too grumpy though, because the ‘Levelling’ is now playing out at high speed.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Since Donald Trump entered the White House for the second time, so much has happened that I want to use this note – coming at the end of the first quarter of the year, to discern new emerging trends from noise, across four different domains.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Bonfire of Diplomacy&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first emerging trend can be characterised by the image of the bonfire of diplomatic relationships, which started at the Munich Security Conference and has continued apace since then. Gone is the cosy globalised world of Bill Clinton and even George W Bush, where America was a benevolent colossus, keeping the peace, spurring prosperity, and putting out financial fires. In my travels, I found myself recommending investors to read Adam Smith on the topic of mercantilist economic behaviour, Palmerston on foreign policy (‘we have no allies, only interests’) and that they acquaint themselves with Peter Hopkirk’s ‘Great Game’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In brief, my sense is that the Trump team wants the US to become a hyper-charged nation-state, rather than the hyperpower that it was. Whilst there is much consternation in Europe and parts of Asia about this, I do not yet detect widespread disapproval from many Americans I speak with.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Aux Armes!&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A consequence of this is Defence Union in Europe. Echoing the French president, we are all ‘strategic autonomists’ now. Many of the urgent phases in this journey are already being undertaken – the publication of the pragmatic EU White Paper on defence, the EU’s new Eur 800bn loan facility for defence spending and critically Germany’s decision to loosen the debt brake provision on defence spending.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some intelligence agencies (Denmark and Finland for instance) estimate that in the event of a peace deal in Ukraine, Russia would be ready to launch a war on a European country in two years’ time, and in five years could have rebuilt its military to a level that it could consider a war against the EU. The Nordics, Baltic states, Poland, Germany, France and of course the UK appear to buy into the seriousness of this threat, but there are notable defence laggards, namely Spain and Ireland.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Neither does it seem that there is sufficient urgency on the security front – my experience was that Russians were omni-present in the cafes of Vienna and arguably not enough is being done to sanction governments that are apologists for Moscow (i.e. Hungary).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The one aspect of the European revival story I need to be convinced on is the cultivation of a pro-growth socio-economic outlook in countries like France, and specifically, of the need to instigate capital markets union (CMU), which whilst not a vote winner for politicians, is a necessary development for a stronger European economy.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Oops – muscle not fat&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The economic policy of the Trump administration is difficult to decipher through the noise of chainsaws and crashing of markets. At its core, I detect a nihilistic fiscal conservatism – a desire to shrink the fiscal deficit and by extension the enormous debt load that means that the USA pays out far more in interest payments What is causing dismay is that the policies enacted to temper the growth of the economy are cutting economic muscle not fat. Universities, researchers, and essential parts of the science establishment are being undercut, and socially it is disturbing to see veterans bearing the brunt of DOGE. More importantly, the shredding of the rule of law and politicising of justice have never helped any economy (Turkey is the case in point).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whilst much of the media coverage of the Trump economic policies has focused on the harm caused by tariffs (they should be applied in small, not massive doses), not enough attention is given to how corporations will react to policy uncertainty. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/from-brexit-to-dixit&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;In a recent note&lt;/a&gt;, I described Avinash Dixit’s theory of how macro uncertainty causes companies to ‘wait and see’. In that respect, the forthcoming earnings reporting season and corporate action calendar bear close watching.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Exceptionally expensive&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Allied to the outlook for the US economy is a growing realisation on the part of investors that American assets (the dollar, stocks and corporate bonds) are very expensive, and dominate portfolios. In this regard, the Liberation Day announcement should worry investors. One is the sheer carelessness and apparent incompetence of the tariff policy – it has exposed the lack of analytical capacity in the administration and a lack of concern for the economy. Trust in the administration is draining. The other is that it has reminded investors of their exposure to US assets.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this stage, the majority of asset allocators in the investment industry still appear content to persist with very conventional portfolio structures, that are arguably not configured for a rapidly changing world.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One thought experiment I perform with investors is to show them how portfolios have changed through time. For example, in 1900 nearly 50% of stocks were railway companies, and the UK made up 25% of the world stock market (close to 3% now). Today the US weighs in at close to 68% of world equities, and my sense is that with the dollar still relatively strong, allocators should start to sell American exceptionalism in the sense that it is impounded in stock valuations.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A final lesson from Lenin might help them. For much of the period of the first wave of globalisation (1870 to 1900), Russian equities comfortably outperformed American companies. But, having been shut for much of the First World War, the Russian exchange opened again in January 1917. Then came the revolution and the market shut for 75 years.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Political risk matters!&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Learning to love Lenin

&lt;p&gt;A quick first take from Unio Wealth Management on the Liberation Day tariffs from our Chief Investment Officer, Mike O’Sullivan.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/l4oCeQHC7Eg?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our immediate reaction to the Liberation Day announcement, from the point of view of corporations and markets, is concern.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The level of tariffs (it seems calculated as ‘country trade deficit with the US divided by exports’) are larger than expected, and punitive for European and especially China and even Japan and India.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A further worry is that the application of the tariffs is economically damaging, and the risk of a recession is now high. From the point of view of textbook economics, this level and scope of tariffs is puzzlingly bad for the US economy, and many investors will question the rationale and possibly the competence of the White House policy team.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are two avenues ahead.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One is that the application of 20% tariffs on the EU (GB looks to have escaped with 10% and strangely pharmaceuticals have escaped tariffs) and 34% on China (on top of earlier tariffs) will necessitate a strong response from both regions. This has the potential to worsen the geopolitical environment and to trigger an unwanted global demand shock. One development may be that other countries form coalitions against the US in the trade process, that demand for US goods and services in Asia and Europe suffers. An open question is specifically how China responds, given the ways in which it can disrupt supply chains.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A more positive scenario is that the high level of tariffs is the first step in a grand ‘deal’, or negotiating process. The difficulty with this view is that diplomatic relations between the US and other regions are already strained, and the credibility of the US is now in question.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From the point of view of corporates, a minor positive is that the rate outlook is changing to a path of lower rates in 2025 (pricing in a demand shock), but the concern is that the extreme level of uncertainty will cause companies and private investors to put investment plans on hold. We note that the Fed chair speaks publicly on Friday, and the response of central bankers to this potential shock is another open question.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equally, capital market activity may also see a hiatus until there is clarity on the trade outlook. Additionally, given the premise that the application of tariffs is to help US firms, this policy move creates a very difficult environment for them.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients’ wealth with unparalleled full financial life advice. Get our latest expert commentary direct to your inbox. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/subscribe-to-the-view&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Subscribe here. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Tariffs Reaction

&lt;p&gt;📻 Tune in as Joe Lynam and Mike O'Sullivan, Director, Unio Wealth Management discuss the likely impacts of today's tariff announcement on Newstalk's Breakfast Business. &lt;a href=&quot;https://open.spotify.com/episode/0ChTKm9hTaC4B2f8CO3GSJ?si=w4elJTurR6m-JYVRAF7eAQ&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Listen here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Comment from Mike O'Sullivan ahead of this evening press conference for the White House Rose Garden at 9pm Irish time.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;Ireland needs to look beyond the theatre and the ‘event’ of Liberation Day. It is imperative to focus on the long-term changes that will shape the future of the nation. One critical area of consideration is the source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); understanding where it comes from now and how it can be effectively utilised is vital. Additionally, identifying the industries of the future and tailoring university curriculums to support these emerging fields is essential for sustained growth. Ireland's firm position in the European camp will inevitably influence political dynamics, especially as the relevance of the US diminishes and the UK faces its own growth challenges. Moreover, addressing the funding required for substantial defence and climate damage liability remains a pressing concern, highlighting the need for strategic financial planning and resource allocation&quot;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients’ wealth with unparalleled full financial life advice. Get our latest expert commentary direct to your inbox. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/subscribe-to-the-view&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Subscribe here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Liberation Day

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;In this article, Lynda McAuliffe, private client adviser in Unio’s Wealth Solutions team, discusses the underestimated financial value of stay-at-home parents and the importance of life insurance to protect families.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For some households, it is more cost-effective for one parent to stay at home while the other parent works. According to the 2022 Census data in Ireland, there were 272,318 stay-at-home parents, with 90% of them being women.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stay-at-home parents, whether part-time or full-time, play a pivotal yet often underappreciated role in maintaining the household and nurturing the family. Because their labour is unpaid, its true value is easily overlooked, leading to significant financial implications, particularly when it comes to life insurance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Underestimating the Financial Contribution&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;According to a recent survey from Royal London Ireland, almost nine in ten adults nationwide underestimate the financial value of a stay-at-home parent. Royal London Ireland also conducted its own research, estimating that the annual salary of a stay-at-home parent would be approximately €57,140 if their responsibilities were outsourced.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Life insurance policies often fail to account for the invisible labour of stay-at-home parents, leaving families financially vulnerable in the event of their loss.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The emotional impact of this loss makes it even harder to navigate the financial burden that follows. Life insurance isn’t just about money—it’s about giving families the breathing room to grieve without immediately worrying about survival.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While losing a loved one is devastating, losing a stay-at-home parent brings an added practical crisis: how to replace the full-time care, structure, and support they provided.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Providing a Safety Net for Families&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A well-planned life insurance policy ensures that families can afford quality childcare, household support, and the time necessary to adjust to their new reality. It offers a critical safety net, providing stability and security during an emotionally challenging period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While there has been a shift toward dual-income households in recent decades, the protection needs remains the same. A comprehensive financial plan that includes life insurance is essential for safeguarding a family’s future, making sure both parents are adequately covered, and recognising the invaluable contributions of stay-at-home parents.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you would like to find out more about how you can take control of your financial future, reach out to your Unio adviser by emailing&lt;a href=&quot;mailto:wealthsolutions@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;wealthsolutions@unio.ie&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Lynda McAuliffe QFA RPA FPRA is a private client adviser with our Wealth Solutions team at Unio Wealth Management. Lynda is based in Unio's Cork office.&lt;/p&gt;

The Unseen Value of Stay-at-Home Parents

&lt;p&gt;This article appeared in the &lt;a href=&quot;https://isme.ie/publication/the-bisme-27/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Spring 2025 edition of bISME&lt;/a&gt;, the quarterly publication of the Irish SME Association (ISME).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio Wealth Management is a new addition to the ISME network and has emerged as a fresh name in Wealth Management in Ireland. Our mission is to ensure that, as business owners, your time is well spent, that you are informed about your financial position and have the peace of mind to build your business, while we take care of the rest.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio has a team of expert advisers who work with business owners every day. Unio SME understands that busy professional and personal lives often mean that time is at a premium for you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How we can help business owners.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Planning for your Own Future&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Business owners pour everything into their company, but what about life beyond work? A strong retirement plan through your company can provide financial stability when the time comes to step back.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Tax efficiency &amp; Smart Investments&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Managing surplus cash wisely, maximising tax efficiencies and ensuring investments align with long-term goals can boost financial security for you and your business&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Protecting your Team&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Attracting and retaining talent is crucial. Employee benefits, including pension schemes, life and income protection plans, not only provide financial security for employees, but also strengthen your business.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Succession and Exit Strategy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whether passing the business on or preparing for a sale, having a structured plan and advice ensures a smooth transition for all.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gary Cullen, Head of SME at Unio, appreciates that SME owners juggle countless responsibilities daily. “Managing personal finances and understanding how your business is intertwined with this is vital. We know that allocating time to pension planning, investment and employee benefits can be time consuming and can divert attention away from your core business activities. Our dedicated SME team is here to help and take ownership of these for you. We offer tailored financial solutions specific to your needs to give you the peace of mind to then focus on what you do best – growing your business.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Peter Walsh, a Private Client Adviser with Unio SME, explains this approach: “There are so many facets to running a business - from that initial leap, to growing and eventually passing onto the next generation, and everything in between. At Unio, we partner you on this journey, prioritising your financial wellbeing, that of your team and your business. We provide you with a comprehensive, bespoke financial life plan to achieve this – we will show where you are now and get you thinking about where you can be in future. Your business is very much part of this journey, and we will then work with you to achieve these goals.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We understand that SMEs are the backbone of economic Ireland and are at the heart of local communities. With offices in Dublin, Galway, Limerick and Cork, our team are there for you and can be flexible to your schedule, all to ensure that financial growth for you and your team is not a challenge, but an opportunity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gary Cullen is head of our SME team at Unio and &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Gary%20Cullen&amp;segment=Business%20Owners&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Peter Walsh is a private client adviser with Unio SME and &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Peter%20Walsh&amp;segment=Business%20Owners&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Financial Wellbeing for You, Your Team and Your Business

&lt;p&gt;My friends in the French Air Force tell me (by Signal obviously) that last Tuesday’s ‘Poker 2025’ nuclear attack exercise went off well. Rafale fighter jets loaded with mock nuclear missiles took off from bases in Brittany, supported by Mirage fighters, refuelling and signals planes, in order to stage an attack on the southern part of France, which in this simulation was defended by a host of other air forces (i.e. Poland).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This was the first ‘Poker’ exercise in four years and comes at an opportune time for France to demonstrate its nuclear capability to other EU states, and to up the ante in terms of the defence debate in Europe. More alarmingly, America’s retreat as the guarantor of international security, and Russia’s aggression of Ukraine and Europe, not to mention the darker intentions of Iran and China, have prompted a range of countries – from Poland to Australia to debate whether they need a nuclear deterrent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Acquiring or building nuclear weapons is one thing, figuring out how and when to use them is another. In 1983, a potential nuclear exchange was averted when an officer in the Soviet Air Defence Force, Stanislav Petrov, correctly assessed that a signal of an incoming missile attack was a false alarm and did not trigger an urgent warning to his chain of command. Also, in 1962 the Bay of Pigs standoff between the US and Russia came dangerously close to a missile exchange between the superpowers (book ‘The Kennedy Tapes’ is well worth reading).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, it is also time to resurrect the film ‘Dr Strangelove’, a Stanley Kubrick movie that hinges on the dilemma of a first strike nuclear attack by the US on Russia. The central character in the movie, played brilliantly by Peter Sellers, is thought to have been based on Johnny von Neumann, a brilliant Hungarian-American polymath, who passed through some of the world’s most prestigious schools (ETH Zurich, Gottingen and the Institute for Advanced Studies at Princeton) and was a significant contributor to the US atomic weapons program.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of von Neumann’s accomplishments was the founding of game theory – the modelling of strategic decision making. The logic of Dr Strangelove turns around the game theoretic problem that could be described as ‘if I think my nuclear armed opponent might think I AM going to strike him, and he might react, then I had better strike him first’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Game theory has become an important part of economics since von Neumann’s work and is also very useful in international relations. It may enjoy a revival in the context of the second Trump presidency (a couple of weeks ago in ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/from-brexit-to-dixit&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Brexit to Dixit’&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;I invoked the work of another Princeton resident, Avinash Dixit, on real options theory, which is helpful in explaining how policy uncertainty is impacting investment decisions).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Game theory helps to explain why the world was so stable during the period of globalisation – the international landscape was dominated by a large, predictable, and mostly benevolent ‘actor’ (USA) in the context of a host of other less powerful actors. The advent of a new, powerful, self-interested actor (China) changed the nature of the international ‘game’ (as popularised in books like Graham Allison’s ‘Destined for War’).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The reason that game theory will be in vogue in international relations is that the assumptions behind the dominant player in the game, the US, are already radically changing, as witnessed by comments this week from Mark Carney the Canadian prime minister.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The US may no longer be dominant (a powerful nation-state rather than an empire), it could be more adversarial rather than benevolent and generally unpredictable. In the game theory framework, such a view of the US as an actor on the international stage could prompt other nations to take hitherto unthinkable actions – Japan might build a nuclear weapons program (it has the wherewithal to do so quickly) and provide this to South Korea, China might decide to bolster its soft power by underwriting health and poverty programs for the UN, and Europe may offer its citizens a secure, private social media service (not unlike the WeChat suite).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Next week’s Liberation day (April 2) tariff announcement will play a role in the transformation of the US in the eyes of its allies and neighbours, and a game theoretic response is that we see much greater coordination between Japan, the EU, UK and Canada around their collective trade and economic relationship with the US.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Poker 2025

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Many high earners in Ireland are financially successful but still lack the right guidance to make the most of their wealth. &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial-reports/helping-high-earners-achieve-their-full-financial-potential/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;In this week's Sunday Business Post&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;, Ian Brady, Chief Executive at Unio Wealth Management discusses how strategic financial advice can unlock greater opportunities for professionals, business owners, and executives. A 4 minute read.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wealth in Ireland only started to grow materially in the late 1990s, there is an historic, generational transfer of wealth under way and a new cohort of earned wealth creating a surge in the need for wealth advice. Unio has ambitious growth plans and is filling that void for Ireland’s wealthy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With much of Ireland experiencing wealth for the first time, knowledge and education is key for success. According to the 2022 European Fund and Asset Management Association’s Household Participation in Capital Markets Report, Ireland has just 1 per cent of its wealth invested in funds and securities, versus a European average of 10 per cent. Yet we have high savings rates. So why aren’t more people building their wealth through investing?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Ireland became wealthy quite quickly, and culturally, a lot of our wealth was traditionally invested in land and property,” said Ian Brady, CEO of Unio Wealth Management. “Swathes of high earners in Ireland are completely under-advised, perhaps because there is a bit of reluctance among people in Ireland to talk about wealth. People often have a view of investing as a product-led transaction and that might feel cold to some people and put them off. In contrast, we see in other countries a more mature and established culture of advice-led financial planning supported by robust investment solutions. This is more inclusive of the whole family and their life goals, this is where Unio comes in.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio is the coming​ together of five of Ireland’s leading wealth management​ and employee benefit companies, with the financial backing of Great-West Lifeco, significantly the owners of Irish Life. The company has a clear goal of guiding, guarding and growing wealth in Ireland, opting for a progressive and inclusive approach that truly considers clients’ holistic and financial needs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Our clients tell us that wealth means more to them than money or assets, it is about quality of life for the future, we understand this and it’s what makes Unio different, our full financial life planning is unique,” said Brady. “We are here to really understand our clients and what they want to do with their wealth into the future and help them achieve it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Ireland is good at saving money, but the vast majority of it is in overnight accounts. People can make their savings work harder by investing in the context of a solid financial plan and in this regard, there is a long way to go in Ireland. Typically, people don’t access advice in Ireland to the levels seen internationally. In the US, it’s a badge to talk about your adviser.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Swathes of high earners in Ireland are completely under-advised&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While Unio may be focused on helping Ireland’s wealthy, their advisers also have a mission of advising and guiding people from an early age so they can achieve wealth one day. “We are set up to meet people where they are and for us that is in the workplace. Unio has an employee benefits business, so we’re in the workplace advising people with their pensions,” said Brady. “We find that often people start to build a relationship around financial planning when they start paying into a pension. It’s a great place to bring people up to speed with financial planning and what people need to do before retirement. Irish Life serves 27 of the top 30 multinationals in the country, where much of this wealth is emerging, so it’s natural that a wealth management business like Unio should sit alongside this also.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The advantage of this holistic planning-based approach is that advisers can help clients with a vast range of needs. “Our aim is to give our clients immense peace of mind, maximise their wealth and unlock their confidence in the future,” said Brady. “We know that careful planning and expert guidance is at the heart of every financial success, but this is a highly personal, and can be, an emotive experience for our clients. We understand that clients want to deal with a company that’s empathetic, warm and inclusive, that’s Unio. Our team is genuinely passionate about helping clients reach their financial life goals and achieve their full financial potential.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article appeared in the Sunday Business Post on Sunday, 23rd March and is available here to read online: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial-reports/helping-high-earners-achieve-their-full-financial-potential/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Helping high earners achieve their full financial potential&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch here. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Helping High Earners Achieve their Full Financial Potential

&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishtimes.com/sponsored/2025/03/10/the-wealth-management-partner-that-helps-you-create-the-space-to-change-the-pace/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This article appeared in the Irish Times on Tuesday, 18th March 2025.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Putting financial decisions on the long finger is short-changing your future self&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio advisers know that no two clients are the same. It’s why everything they do is tailored to each client, designing wealth management solutions that meet their specific needs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It’s an expertise that comes from decades of experience helping clients to identify their goals, build a plan for their future and, most importantly, how to fund it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That’s because Unio Wealth Management represents the coming together of some of Ireland’s leading wealth management and employee benefit companies backed by Canadian international financial services company Great-West Lifeco.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, it specialises in meeting the needs of people in Ireland who have accumulated wealth, either through good jobs or good fortune, but yet they are time poor and as a result are under-advised when it comes to what their wealth means for their future and how to maximise it fully.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That accounts for more of us than we might appreciate, explains Wendy McKeown, Unio’s head of financial planning, and Conor Murray, head of its corporate and company executives’ business.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our clients tell us that wealth means more to them than money or assets, it is about quality of life for the future, we understand this and this is what makes Unio different to other investment houses.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The great escape&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;They talk about a couple that Murray works with as a case in point, in their mid-fifties, were feeling “a little bit stuck on the corporate treadmill”, when they met him, says Murray.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“They were lucky in that they had accumulated assets, including cash and property, but needed a clearer picture of their future.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Both had travelled extensively for work. “They had been all over the world, but only from the airport to the meeting and back. They never had time to explore the world together,” he explains.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, they were such career highflyers that “even getting them in the one room at the same time was a challenge,” he recalls.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;They came to him with a goal already formulated but no clear path to achieving it. Their wish was to retire at 61 while they were young enough to enjoy traveling, together.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Through his conversations with them, Murray helped them to understand what they needed to do to make that future a reality.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;By talking through their lives, priorities, and motivations, together they mapped out a comprehensive plan that enabled them to achieve and fund early retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The plan included increasing their pension contributions and making investment options that would generate reliable income. Knowing the impact of these steps was a great motivator in their final years of work, he adds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Though one of them suffered a recent health scare, knowing that they had enough to fund their retirement was a huge relief. Now they travel six times a year, making unforgettable memories,” he says.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Having the space to change pace&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A client that sticks in Wendy McKeown’s mind is a business owner who felt it was time to step back from her business and rebalance her life.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“She had been working at 100 miles an hour up until that point, had always been focused on the business and its success, and hadn’t taken the time to take stock and think about herself. Now, she wanted to take her foot off the pedal a little, and focus on hobbies and interests, and just enjoy the life she had worked so hard to build,” explains McKeown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Together they worked out how to make her finances work harder for her, to enable her to do just that. While she had taken retirement relief from her company, she found herself sitting on cash deposits earning a low rate of interest. They established that her priority was to have a reliable monthly income, with access to her cash if she needed it. McKeown helped her tidy up her pension and take advantage of all the tax credits available to her.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;After decades of calling all the shots herself as a business owner, having an expert to reassure and guide her through her finances was a welcome relief, recalls McKeown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“I think she really appreciated the support and encouragement and now has the funds to do what she wants with the most precious asset of all – her time.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;A new chapter, a new life&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the toughest challenges facing any of us is how best to manage wealth in the event that our significant other passes away. That was the scenario facing another of McKeown’s clients.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Her husband died and left her with a sizeable estate but no real experience in managing finances. “While she was grateful for the security that provided, she was anxious about the responsibility of it, and knew she needed professional advice to help her navigate this next chapter of her life,” says Wendy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As ever, the key to putting the right plan in place was to spend time listening, with no pressure and no rushed decisions, she explains.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A plan was agreed and implemented, including setting aside a significant contribution for a charitable purpose, which was enormously meaningful to her client. “It was about providing guidance and reassurance every step of the way,” says McKeown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;When do you need wealth management advice?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Very often people are working in senior corporate roles and are unbelievably time-poor but have complex financial needs in the background, and probably a family as well. They don’t get time to stop and really understand what all of this means for them and their family into the future,” says Conor.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“For us it’s about really trying to understand what’s important to the client. It’s about what they want to get out of it. Then it’s about giving them the peace of mind and reassurance of knowing they have the wealth behind them to live the life they want to live.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In many cases, people are overwhelmed by their financial situation and so put it on the long finger, points out McKeown. But in doing so they are inevitably short-changing their future selves.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The fact that there is currently €150 billion sitting in low-interest cash deposit accounts, eroded by inflation, bears this out.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“The potential opportunities you leave behind by not taking action can be significant down the road. It could be the difference between becoming financially independent or being forced to continue working. It’s why it is just so important to seek out that advice,” adds Murray.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Clients that invest time in the process with their Unio Wealth Management Adviser are making the greatest investment in their future. Those who invest in advice were twice as likely to feel positively about their future. That’s why we believe that time spent with Unio is truly time well spent,” he concludes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishtimes.com/sponsored/2025/03/10/the-wealth-management-partner-that-helps-you-create-the-space-to-change-the-pace/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This article appeared in the Irish Times on Tuesday, 18th March 2025.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Conor Murray is head of Corporate and Company Executives at Unio Wealth Management and &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Conor%20Murray&amp;segment=Corporate%20and%20Company%20Executives&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wendy McKeown is head of Financial Planning at Unio Wealth Management.&lt;/p&gt;

Creating the Space to Change the Pace

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This January was the hottest January on record, at a temperature of 1.75°C above the average for the month (2024 was the hottest year on record with 150 extreme weather events). February was the month with the highest level of economic policy uncertainty since the 1990’s (excluding COVID). Something must be brewing but, the global narrative is so concentrated on the White House and intensely short-term that in a way, the future has been obscured.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whether we like it or not, climate damage is part of that future path and will play its own role in the disorder and re-ordering of the international political economic landscape to come. Regular readers will know that in the framework of my ‘Levelling’, imbalances like the crisis of democracy, climate damage and debt will have to be overcome before a new world order is fully established.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In particular, the deepening of climate damage and the rise of indebtedness are correlated, and both are ‘world’ problems, at a time when coordination between the great powers is at its lowest ebb since the 1930’s. For game theorists at least, this produces a tricky equation – how to achieve a global solution or compromise when the main players in the game are trying to steal a march on each other.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Some of the pathways for climate warming are worrying (taking a range of datapoints from the IPCC, Berkley-Earth institute and the Global Carbon Project), if countries implement the commitments agreed at COP-Paris then global warming will be 2.4°C higher than the long-term average temperature by 2050, with current climate policies the increase is expected to be close to 3.5°C and with no climate policy adjustment it might be in the range of 4-5°C. Granted that a 1°C change in world average temperature can translate into a 4°C increase in some of the most climate precarious countries, this last scenario is frightening.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If climate damage encroaches on some of the thresholds mentioned above, it will become even more of a strategic issue for the economy (there is a &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.nber.org/papers/w33567__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nRyLaIlceKvVBdZmghiZGMvVjt3QMOpWGPBUAUt82eHLwjlb5aQSb-kGW3X8wYRjccB_TIWub-38VM0uUuCEVo37$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;good literature review here&lt;/a&gt;), the technology sector, financial markets and security. Indeed, the 2023 yearly threat assessment produced by the US Director for National Intelligence highlighted that “Climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to U.S. national security interests”.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This report might well become a collector’s item because Pete Hegseth the new Defence Secretary recently (Jan 25) tweeted that “The (Department of Defence) does not do climate change crap”. Whilst the US economy is a very powerful driver of climate technology (Texas gets nearly a third of its electricity from wind power), its absence as a moral leader will mean weaker climate policy adherence by other countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context the link between climate damage and security will have to be made by others, notably the excellent team at UCL’s &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.ucl.ac.uk/future-crime/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nRyLaIlceKvVBdZmghiZGMvVjt3QMOpWGPBUAUt82eHLwjlb5aQSb-kGW3X8wYRjccB_TIWub-38VM0uUqJuXo3S$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Dawes Centre for Future Crime&lt;/a&gt;, with whom I spent time last week exploring how climate damage is provoking new forms of crime and threats to security that go beyond the simple theft of copper wires and solar panels (a vibrant trade apparently).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are a few strands in this emerging, important debate to draw out. Climate damage will in the long-run change cities, geographies and economies and produce migratory trends that malevolent states or non-state actors (gangs and organised crime) will exploit. Energy infrastructure is becoming more stressed because of climate change and the side-effects of this were evident last week with the closure of Heathrow following a fire in a nearby electricity substation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In a more futuristic vein, the response to climate warming will create new technologies, some of them in the realm of geo-engineering which may be able to alter the effects of climate damage, but that might also be commandeered for harm. Then there is AI, which itself will create much greater demand for electricity, but that can help optimise energy usage, though the AI itself is vulnerable to manipulation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Climate change is also leading to the development of new marketplaces – for carbon credits for example, as well as ESG driven assets and debt, but these new forms of financial market infrastructure are often illiquid, improperly regulated and prone to fraud.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What all this points to is that as climate damage provokes innovation, new infrastructure, technologies and markets in the context of a world where security is now a priority and where non-state actors (i.e. gangs) become more powerful and daring, the response to climate damage now also needs to have countermeasures built into it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Clime and Punishment

&lt;p&gt;With emerging market equities remaining affordable relative to those in the US, the Global Macro Council has turned its attention this month to China.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The noise created by the Trump administration has overshadowed significant progress in China. The country is advancing rapidly in AI model building and fostering collaborations with entrepreneurs like Jack Ma.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Chinese-Revival-March-2025.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read more in this month's GMC Outlook.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We were delighted to be joined this month by guest speakers Archie Hart, Ninety One&nbsp;and Steve Fuk Shing Sheung from HSBC. Thank you both for your valued input.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Chinese Revival

&lt;p&gt;Markets have been choppy for some time, and this week is no exception. You may be wondering what’s driving this volatility, and what it may mean for investments?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch below as our Chief Investment Officer, Mike O'Sullivan and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions at Unio, discuss the key factors behind the recent swings and, more importantly, how investors can stay positioned amid the uncertainty.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/OHvkMbXITCA?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Volatility in Markets - What You Need to Know.

&lt;p&gt;When the UK voted to leave the European Union, there was a strong consensus that proximate economies would suffer the macro fallout – Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands were all expected to take a hit, and in particular, I recall speaking with business leaders in both Brussels and Amsterdam at the time and registering their concerns for the local economy. In fact, Brussels was strengthened as a political capital by the way in which it managed the Brexit process, and Amsterdam has been bolstered as a financial capital by Brexit.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Returning to both cities, which sadly are off my well beaten track, I found great curiosity regarding the vision and tactics of Donald Trump. Like Brexit, Trump’s first term was about smashing globalisation, whilst his second term is an attempt to create a new world order, or at least a new American role in the world order.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The prosecution of his tariff strategy has been chaotic and unpredictable, and there are signs that the DOGE project to cut costs in the government sector is simply disruptive. As a result, policy uncertainty has spiked higher. For example, the &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nBBbgzPHsJQ07cFck0q8OnEfGJ1_EPGyWFIoEvs8XdGXwR1Lm_88ZwyWo6_Pj5f8ZeKz-mmQzG6lIbh97NaQB0AD$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Economic Policy Uncertainty&lt;/a&gt; index has shot to levels seen only during COVID. As such there is great concern that the US may tip into a recession or even that this is the express policy of the administration, with the goal of reducing borrowing costs (see ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/un-train-peut-cacher-un-autre&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Un train peut cacher un autre&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2025/03/01/un-train-peut-cacher-un-autre/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nBBbgzPHsJQ07cFck0q8OnEfGJ1_EPGyWFIoEvs8XdGXwR1Lm_88ZwyWo6_Pj5f8ZeKz-mmQzG6lIbh97DIl894I$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;’&lt;/a&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Neither the annihilation of the state nor tariffs may cause a recession, but uncertainty might. In this context, a very well regarded, though complex economics text worth knowing of is Avinash Dixit’s &quot;Investment and Hysteresis’ appearing in a 1992 edition of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, and later as a book co-authored with Robert Pindyck. Avinash spent much of his career at Princeton and is a kind, softly spoken and thoughtful economist, in contrast to many of the more head-line grabbing varieties of the species we hear from on social media.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of Dixit’s pre-occupations was the ways in which companies made investment decisions, and to summarise his findings in a crude way, he noted that firms often didn’t react immediately to a change in economic circumstances but opted to ‘wait and see.’ As a result, an environment of high economic uncertainty produces inertia on the part of companies (and investors), but this can be beneficial to them as it gives them the option to wait and see how that environment develops.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We are in a ‘Dixit’ moment, where companies are beginning to stall investment plans because of the uncertainty emanating from the White House and the ever deeper fracturing of trade and diplomatic relationships across the world. In financial markets, there is a risk that the capital market pipeline remains constipated as mergers and initial public offerings are stalled.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Similarly, the growing uncertainty of America's diplomatic and military intentions is causing nation-states to change course. For example, Portugal has just cancelled an order for F-35 fighter jets and will instead buy European planes, while the centrepiece of Australia’s military strategy, AUKUS, is in disarray.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is difficult to tell how long this ‘Dixit’ moment persists and much depends on the Treasury and White House being able to communicate a clear economic strategy. Notably the administration has been silent on its intentions towards China, which strikes me as odd given that many members of the administration are united in their antipathy towards America’s geostrategic rivalry (Marco Rubio for example published&nbsp;‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/PDFFiles/Marco-Rubio-The-World-China-Made.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The World China Made&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.rubio.senate.gov/rubio-releases-report-the-world-china-made-made-in-china-2025-nine-years-later/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nBBbgzPHsJQ07cFck0q8OnEfGJ1_EPGyWFIoEvs8XdGXwR1Lm_88ZwyWo6_Pj5f8ZeKz-mmQzG6lIbh97Iq4x1te$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;’&lt;/a&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Until we have this clarity, markets will remain jittery, macro data will be unpredictable, and activity will err towards the softer side in the US, but perhaps not in Europe where strategic clarity and ambition are picking up from low levels.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Granted that far too much of the macro debate focuses on the big multipolar zone (US, Europe and China), one of the pleasures of my visit to Amsterdam was the chance to meet with David Skilling (the expert on small, open economies) and also serendipitously with Afshin Molavi (the expert on ‘the other 75%’, by which I mean the emerging world economies). It is worth focusing a little on how both of these groups are adjusting to a changing world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many small open economies are now in a state of high alert, sceptical of the strategic consequences of the actions of the large nations. In many cases, they are mobilising militarily – the Nordics and Baltic states are an example, and &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/distance&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;in a recent note&lt;/a&gt; I detailed how Singapore, though it is one tenth the size of County Cork, it has an active army nearly ten times the size of that of Ireland, and a reserve army of 250,000 well trained soldiers).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the other end of the spectrum, large populous emerging countries (think of Indonesia, Nigeria, and Bangladesh) are worried about the fallout of the US-China rivalry, but in many ways non-aligned and ambitious for their own economies. On a more positive note Afshin and I think that our ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2023/09/15/the-fourth-pole/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nBBbgzPHsJQ07cFck0q8OnEfGJ1_EPGyWFIoEvs8XdGXwR1Lm_88ZwyWo6_Pj5f8ZeKz-mmQzG6lIbh97LZrAXgB$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;4th Pole’&lt;/a&gt; thesis – that the greater economic region linked by the UAE-Saudi Arabia and India – has the makings of a new pole of economic activity.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

From Brexit to Dixit

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Michael and Ann’s Story&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a couple with busy careers, we had big plans for our family’s future but just weren’t sure how to make it all happen. We needed to put the kids through school and university, plan for a few important life events like weddings and work towards a comfortable retirement. We have the added complication that one of us is Australian, so it was vital for us to visit home regularly to keep that connection with family. Like most people, we have a big mortgage however, we both earn well, have share options and, a large lump sum from an inheritance. We know we have significant assets, we’re lucky; the problem is finding the time to figure it all out. Something else always takes priority and to be honest, managing your finances can feel overwhelming. You are always wondering if you are doing the right thing. We needed help to bring the pieces of the puzzle together.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How Unio Wealth Management Helped Us&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From the get-go, our Unio adviser listened carefully to understand our family’s needs and&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;created a plan that addressed everything from building our pension savings and setting up education funds for the kids to planning for life’s milestones. With their guidance, we were able to pay off our mortgage early, saving €180,000 over its lifetime.&nbsp;This alone was a game changer, freeing up income to allow us book those flights and spend time with family. Family Christmases in Sydney are now in the plan as well as annual trips to Ireland for the grandparents.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Final Reflections&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Working with our adviser transformed our situation, providing the clarity focus and perspective we needed. Our adviser understood us, what mattered to us, and they worked through the finances to make it happen. We are still working hard, but now we can enjoy life knowing our family’s future is secure. We can look forward to a lifetime of memories we would never have dreamt possible without taking the time to plan with Unio.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. Invest some time with our expert financial advisers to talk about your life goals. It will be time well spent.&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Talk to us&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stories based on real Unio clients, names and certain details have been adjusted to preserve client privacy.&lt;/p&gt;

Creating a Lifetime of Memories

&lt;p&gt;I was sauntering through the centre of Vienna last Wednesday, admiring its stylish cafes and bars, and Friedrich Hayek came to mind.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hayek argued against the suffocating role of government (‘central planners’) on the economy and for greater individual liberty, and his arguments still contain a grain of truth in the context of many European economies. Ironically, Austria’s brand-new finance minister had previously worked as an economist for a trade union and might well prove to be an ‘anti-Hayek’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hayek was one of the inspirations (after he won the Nobel Prize in 1974) behind what many American libertarians call the ‘Austrian’ school of economics, and his book ‘The Road to Serfdom’ is undoubtedly on the bookshelves of the most ardent members of team Trump, alongside works like Ayn Rand’s ‘Atlas Shrugged ‘.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the Americas, Hayek is a favourite of the ‘chainsaw’ economists, with a large dollop of irony given the push for total control of the economy by an elite. Indeed, the risk for Americans is that the dismantling of the government led economy in America risks turning Americans into serfs of the private sector. But, this scenario is not yet immediately obvious given the way public attention remains focused on Ukraine and the victims of American tariffs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the past six months, a very strong international narrative has spread around the notion of ‘American exceptionalism’. The US is exceptional in a few domains – fighting (military), finance and its multinationals. Donald Trump is using these exceptional pillars to influence other countries and to set in train his vision for a more isolationist America. The response from America’s erstwhile allies has been to rapidly re-arm and re-finance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An important sign of this was the announcement by Friedrich Merz (with the SPD’s Lars Klingbeil and the CSU chief) of a new defence spending plan, which largely swerves the issue of the debt brake. That German and Japanese bond yields rose suggests that markets are pricing the reallocation of the bill for security as an international public good to America’s former allies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The return of war as a topic in European debate will alarm many people, and it should not be underestimated. One of my recent notes highlighted how Europe likely faces an ongoing campaign of harassment, sabotage and destabilisation from Russia. The idea that Europe is on its own is now quite starkly taking hold.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the drumbeat of war will add to stress in our lives, it is not (yet) part of them. For the great majority of people, the geopolitical debate remains one between elites, and so far, does not impact their everyday lives.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is where European leaders need to pay more attention and try to reset the international narrative. If America is strong in fighting and finance, it is weaker in areas where Europe is strong, and we might say that the two continents are the mirror opposite of each other. In my view, Europe is strong in the areas that matter to most people, most of the time. Specifically, Europe, as a social democracy is the best place to live in the world (6.6% of the world’s population live in ‘full’ democracies), has generally free education and healthcare and its societies are peaceful (according to the UN, the murder rate in the US is 14 times that of Italy). Life expectancy in France for instance, is four years ahead of the USA. Health spending per capita in the US is well over double what it would be for a European country (13k vs. 6k).&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, my counterintuitive argument (to the ‘chainsaw economists’) is that America needs less Hayek, and more ‘Europe’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The absence of a deep social security system in the US, and the difficulty of accessing decent healthcare at reasonable prices means that a huge number of Americans live in precarity. Demolishing the department of education and cutting state aid to veterans are just two measures that increase vulnerability.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The trend that is emerging, and which will become starkly visible in a recession, is of an American society where a small but important number of households (say 20%) are wealthy enough to live well and access high quality education and healthcare, 40% of households live with the stress of becoming economically vulnerable and a further 30% live in serfdom in the sense that they have no leisure time (Newsweek estimates that one third of American workers has a second job).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Income inequality in the US is at historically very high levels, and the share of total income garnered by the top 1% of the workforce is tipping levels only seen in the 1930’s. Viewed from the point of view of wealth, 38% of the world’s millionaires live in America and over half of the ultra-high net worth (wealth over USD 50mn) individuals in the world are American. Indeed, the top 1% of wealthy American’s own 18.5% of all wealth in America, while the ‘bottom’ 50% of Americans own just 3% of wealth.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, the Trump 2.0 programme may not free Americans from serfdom to the government but will make them serfs of a private sector.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a parting shot, Europe might need a little dose of Hayek. To that end, social welfare systems, state pension plans and healthcare spending may need to be streamlined across Europe as the security agenda becomes more prominent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Road to Serfdom

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning February 24th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week's investment briefing📽️&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/79-sDGX0iWo?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-It was another interesting week in global financial markets, which have continued to be influenced by macro and geopolitical risk factors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Whilst value continues to outperform growth over the last quarter, investors remain bullish on Europe relative to the US YTD, further highlighted today with the rally in European defence stocks after political tensions between the US and Ukraine seemed to overspill in the Oval Office last Friday.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Additionally, weaker macro fundamentals in the US are now filtering through to bond markets, with the 10 year yield sliding 0.23% over the week as traders price in up to 3 rate cuts by the Fed over the rest of 2025. If we see a weaker US jobs report this Friday, alongside non-farm payroll data, it may well add to traders forecasts for US interest rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Earnings to watch this week include: March 5: Saudi Aramco, March 06: Broadcom and Costo.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View, Week Beginning March 3rd, 2025

&lt;p&gt;Adam Smith, though better known now as an economist held the chair of Moral Philosophy at Glasgow and as such it’s fair to assume that he knew a thing or two about the intersection of economics, philosophy and politics, and that often a political crisis is motivated by an underlying economic crisis…hence the title of this note.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Smith lived during a time of mercantilism, which we might describe as a nationalistic approach to trade that aims to maximise the exports of a country whilst keeping imports to a minimum. In this context, Smith wrote of mercantilist nations that ‘their interest lies in beggaring their neighbours’, and the phrase ‘beggar thy neighbour’ has been often used in the economic context, usually when growth is scarce (the aftermath of the Great Depression and the Global Financial crisis)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With mercantilism and ‘beggar thy neighbour’ back in fashion, it is worth returning to Smith’s ‘Wealth of Nations', book IV’ where many of the observations Smith made chime with America today, such as:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;em&gt;‘The sneaking arts of underling tradesmen are thus erected into political maxims for the conduct of a great empire ... . By such maxims as these, however, nations have been taught that their interest consisted in beggaring all their neighbours. Each nation has been made to look with an invidious eye upon the prosperity of all the nations with which it trades, and to consider their gain as its own loss. Commerce, which ought naturally to be, among nations, as among individuals, a bond of union and friendship, has become the most fertile source of discord and animosity’.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, beyond the bonfire of American values and diplomatic relationships, there is an emerging, underlying logic to the policies of the White House that China, Japan and Europe need to pay attention to.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I have written many times in this note that the world economy is in the antechamber of a fiscal-debt crisis (listen to ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001styj__;!!O22_8FOSssc!i4Xk0Fgp6ypxUsVWUc-Cth2EeHqXqGJZNp3lFyUV6OqEkvs0tdzRNHrR68HPVNWybZBY-kwW3c1VyVeYoRFi6Ia1$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Waking up to World Debt’&lt;/a&gt;). Unusually, all of the major economies have become indebted at the same time, and the process(es) by which they try to reduce debt at the same time will likely prove extremely hazardous financially.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It seems that the Trump entourage understands this, and that logically the unifying factor behind disparate policies from the creation of ‘DOGE’ to the enfeebling of NATO are driven by a brutal sense of austerity, that starts with the cutting down of all the international public goods that the US has invested in since Bretton Woods.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, the ‘beggaring’ of Europe pushes the bill for European security back across the Atlantic and has shaped the debate in Europe towards greater debt accumulation (for example the debt brake is one of the most contentious topics for the new German government and the EU will soon embark on the issue of EU defence bonds). Japan, South Korea and Australia might be next.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In effect, the White House is using areas where America is exceptional – financial markets, the military and multinationals – to coerce its allies. Debt might be next. The closest we have to a template for a Trump grand macro plan is a paper written by Stephen Miran, who may soon take up the role of head of the Council for Economic Advisers. The elements in this plan have popularly become known as the ‘Mar-A-Lago Accord’, which is not unlike the world debt conference idea I have written about in The Levelling, though my version takes place in the recently refurbished Raffles (Singapore).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the pillars of the cited ‘Mar-A-Lago Accord is that holders of Treasuries exchange these securities for very long-term loans (that might not provide a coupon). The result would be to restructure the maturity and fiscal burden of America’s debt load. It is a neat idea but will not work in practice. Any debt accord will likely need the impetus of a major financial crisis as a motivator, will need to restructure the debt of all the major economies and will entail a rewriting of financial regulations across the world (for pension funds for example).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In reality, an attempt to enact a Mar-a-Lago Accord, in the same fashion as the debate around NATO, may create aversion (distrust in) to US financial assets and the dollar. Whilst Europeans may not appreciate the extent to which a ‘beggar thy neighbour’ philosophy is driven by US security policy, the White House is underestimating the value that America’s wide ranging financial, diplomatic and commercial infrastructure bring it. An example is that close to 40% of the revenues of large American firms come from overseas.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the short-term, we are also starting to witness the effects of austerity on the American economy. Though ‘hard’ data on the economy remain solid, the outlook will become very noisy in the next few months as government job cuts take hold and as social welfare cuts (notably in the mortgage industry) sow anxiety. Markets have started to become jittery too, amidst a belief that the administration is much more focused on lowering bond yields (and thus the cost of government debt) than boosting the stock market.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a scenario where the (US) economy weakens, investors normally turn to Treasuries, but the prospect of a Mar-A-Lago Accord being foisted upon them could lead to a buyers’ strike.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Un train peut cacher un autre

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning February 24th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week's investment briefing📽️&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/jd_gt0azzaU?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️The main focus of this week will be the result and implications of the recent German election as they look to form a new government.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ There was a stronger than expected performance from the AfD party, which may make it more difficult to form a strong coalition government.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️Looking ahead this week, some big names in tech will be in the news with Apple's AGM happening on the 25th, and both Salesforce and Nvidia's Q4 earnings released on 26th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Later in the week the focus will shift towards US macro data with the Q4 GDP and US Core PCE Price Index released on the 27th and 28th respectively.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View, Week Beginning 24th February, 2025

&lt;p&gt;The New World Order&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2025 is seeing the dawning of a new world where new rules and ways of doing things are crafted, but also one where impatience is a symptom of an unclear future for many countries, companies, and households. In this context, Unio has launched a monthly thought leadership series - New World, New Rules, Your Wealth - the themes of which underpin financial advice to our clients. Written by Mike O’Sullivan, Director, Unio Wealth Management, these articles examine and debate how Ireland – from the point of view of its economy, politics, and diplomacy – will be affected by this ‘new world under new rules’ theme. This first article in the series, examines Ireland’s relationship with the EU. It highlights the importance of the EU to Ireland’s future and the potential shift away from reliance on the UK and US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Challenges in Geopolitics&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first month of the Trump administration has not been kind to Europe, and we are now witnessing the speedy unravelling of over seventy years of American diplomacy and prestige. Chillingly, in the Trump 2.0 world, former allies are adversaries and enemies of the past are now partners. Speeches by members of the Trump administration at the AI Summit in Paris and the Munich Security Conference herald a new strategic relationship between the US and Europe. In particular, the Munich Security Conference saw a dramatic weakening in American support for Ukraine and a sense that its hitherto unwavering commitment to NATO might be crumbling, and the possibility that an EU Defence Union becomes reality. The week’s developments alone point to a trying time for the EU geopolitically. The hope is that the EU emerges from this in a more coherent way. In the short term, however, Europe does not have control of the narrative on geopolitics – it has allowed itself to be painted as weak and ineffective, which is not entirely true.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland’s Unique Position&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this very dramatic and often worrying context, Ireland is an oddity in Europe. The political debate in Ireland is very different from the topics that dominate the headlines in countries like France and Germany. Economically, Ireland is fiscally better off than most EU states but spends next to nothing on defence (Ireland spends an eighth of the EU average on defence) and in effect Ireland has no security infrastructure. It used to be the case that our geography acted as a shield to geopolitics, but today our skies and waters (and undersea cables) are active threat zones that are policed by NATO member states. In 2008, Ireland was unprepared for an international financial crisis, and the risk now is that it is unprepared for a geopolitical crisis, notably at a time when, in many people’s eyes, Ireland’s political relationship with the US is changing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Relevance and Perception in the EU&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland used to be a more relevant European power, but there has been a shift towards the East (Poland and Baltic States for instance) at the country level in the EU, as well as a centralisation of other powers by the Commission president. Ireland continues to suffer from a view, in other EU countries, that it is a form of tax haven, but that perspective ignores the underlying strength in the Irish economy, the ease of doing business – compared to say France, and the reality that Ireland has become financially very solid. The importance of the EU to Ireland can see seen in at least two examples. The solidarity that the EU showed Ireland during the Brexit negotiations has become an example for other crises, notably the way the Danish prime minister was received in European capitals following president Trump’s proposal to ‘take’ Greenland. The other is the illustration, through Brexit, of what life outside the EU can look like.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Future Challenges and Opportunities&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, Ireland will follow the path of the European project, and it should feel emboldened to play a part in that. In this respect, there are several challenges and opportunities. The first challenge is to bolster defence and security spending, not so much to please our neighbours but to ensure that Ireland can independently defend its borders, maritime area, and airspace. The cost of doing so will be significant if done correctly (up to 5% of GDP for ten years), given the lack of defence infrastructure. The upside is that in a fast-changing world the nature of defence infrastructure is changing fast – unmanned underwater drones are replacing submarines for example. Ireland may also very soon be called upon to invest in EU defence bonds in coming months. The second challenge is to rewire Ireland’s economy, a need that is often debated but where action has lagged. It may well be that tariffs do not cause multinationals in Ireland to shut capacity – many of them are implanted in the economy, but rather regulatory arbitrage by social media giants like Meta causes them specifically to leave Ireland. There can be no excuse for not preparing the economy for a smaller multinational presence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;EU Strategic Projects&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, there are two very strategic projects at the EU level that Ireland has the capacity to harness. One is the move towards strategic autonomy – investment in critical technologies such as semiconductors, quantum, and AI to name a few. Ireland does not rank as a ‘deep tech’ powerhouse, but there are areas in this field that it can concentrate on. One implication here is that our education system will need to change, with a greater focus on applied teaching of languages in schools, science and engineering in universities and the creation of specific poles of excellence across third level education. A second broad area of opportunity is EU capital markets union (CMU), a project that has been driven by the Irish head of the euro-zone, but where there has so far been considerable pushback, including from Ireland. Wealth creation and deep capital markets are two areas where America and increasingly China are pulling ahead of Europe. As a result, there is growing urgency in the EU to re-examine the CMU, which is not exactly a vote winner, but more important to the future of Europe than many think. Ireland has work to do here – examine how the CMU can drive new pockets of growth in our economy, how it will impact the banking sector and how the state can encourage Irish households to invest more.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What next?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Geopolitics is happening very quickly, and for Ireland, the effect is to push it closer to the EU and arguably away from the Anglophone countries (the UK may also find itself edging closer to the EU). This adjustment process will entail much greater spending on defence, and the opportunity to find new economic growth sectors. Critically, with very little urgency being shown in Ireland with respect to the implications of the changing world order, we have to wonder what else needs to occur to trigger a rethink of Ireland’s stance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Ireland and the EU

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A week ago, I started reading Admiral Jim Stavridis and Elliott Akerman’s second book, ‘2054’, which like the first (‘2034’) is a work of fiction designed to tell us about how our own world is evolving and the risks that will confront us. Without spoiling the plot, ‘2054’ demonstrates how new technologies can be deployed in nefarious ways, with the goal of turning the tide of geopolitics. However, as much as I enjoy the work of the Stavridis/Akerman team, my reaction to ‘2054’ was much the same as ‘2034’ (‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2021/04/24/2034-are-we-already-there/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jo5nASZK5_ipWutSpDLPaGmbBamTrno3D7ySvl_SawZQx25b7cXfJ4ELywTz1_C4pizt2Hc7z2mWqSrhY8oD8qEE$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;2034 – are we already there?’&lt;/a&gt;), which is that it has been rendered out of date by bizarre events in the real, political world&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The detonation of over seventy years of American diplomacy and soft power by the various speeches and deeds of the Trump administration is&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.newstalk.com/podcasts/breakfast-business/will-europe-look-to-trade-more-with-china-and-india__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jo5nASZK5_ipWutSpDLPaGmbBamTrno3D7ySvl_SawZQx25b7cXfJ4ELywTz1_C4pizt2Hc7z2mWqSrhYw-x2n2R$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;a fin de siècle moment&lt;/a&gt;, that has drawn comment across the diplomatic world (the most pertinent was that of the Singaporean defence minister who described how he saw the USA moving from a force for ‘moral legitimacy’ to a landlord seeking rent’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The worry now is that the US will treat its allies like enemies and its foes like friends. There was much consternation in Europe, but as this note has argued so many times, very few European countries have faced up to the challenges of the post-globalized world (&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/video/european-parliamentary-week-2025-keynote-speech-by-mario-draghi-former-italian-prime-minister-and-former-president-of-the-european-central-bank_I267271__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jo5nASZK5_ipWutSpDLPaGmbBamTrno3D7ySvl_SawZQx25b7cXfJ4ELywTz1_C4pizt2Hc7z2mWqSrhY7-W1nx-$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Mario Draghi’s speech to the EU parliament&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;last week put it very well…’do something!’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There is now a furore over Eur 500 bn defence bonds, joint nuclear shields and defence equipment shopping lists. But, a more urgent task than buying fighter jets is the need for Europe to have a coherent security strategy. In a weekend where many are anticipating the results of the German election, a neglected development was the collapse of government formation talks between Austria’s centre-right OVP and the far-right FPO.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Some weeks ago, the parties had agreed on an economic programme, but could not settle on a common foreign policy, a critical stumbling point was oversight of the intelligence services (the OVP wanted to be in charge). This is a sensitive topic given that the FPO has a soft spot for the Kremlin, and specifically the fact that in 2018 the Herbert Kickl (FPO leader), when he was Austria’s interior minister, ordered an investigation into the country’s security services. Today, few of its EU peers share intelligence with Austria.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Reflecting that, the immediate challenge from Russia is infiltration, sabotage and manipulation across Europe (the Gerasimov doctrine and David Kilcullen’s work on Russian/Chinese tactics are both worth a read here ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2021/11/13/great-war-to-total-war/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jo5nASZK5_ipWutSpDLPaGmbBamTrno3D7ySvl_SawZQx25b7cXfJ4ELywTz1_C4pizt2Hc7z2mWqSrhYwf0W_nJ$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;From Great War to Total War’&lt;/a&gt;). The EU has done relatively little to push back on this interference, and now has an urgent security (as well as defence) challenge.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This could take various forms.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is to penalise EU states that systematically go against the grain of the policies, values and interests of the Union. Hungary is the main offender here and whilst some EU funds have been withheld from Viktor Orban, the EU has in general failed to confront him. In the recent past there has been talk in the European parliament of excluding Hungary from the EU, which is technically difficult, but is a necessary part of a more ideologically consistent Europe, and one where bad actors face a penalty for their actions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A second strand is to have much greater oversight over the movement of Russians in Europe, and of their capital. Vienna, Milan and the south of France, not to mention parts of Switzerland, are popular destinations for wealthy Russians and some European capitals are saturated with Russian money (Mark Hollingsworth’s book ‘Londongrad’ is instructive here as is Oliver Bullough’s ‘Butler to the World’). To emphasise the point, Russian interference in UK and lately Irish politics has not been aggressively countered, and my fear is that this is much worse in other countries like Germany.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Instead of clamouring to buy rocket launchers, Europe’s political classes have a lot to do domestically to shut the door on Russian interference in European affairs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then, on a more structural level, there is scope for much greater intelligence sharing across governments and joint task-forces on organised crime (gangs are a favourite extension of the Russian state). From the point of hardware, there is a need for increased joint use of satellites and electronic warfare collaboration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The distinction between security and defence is an important and urgent one and a reminder of how complacent European governments have been. Whilst defence capabilities will take time to build up, the measures to be enacted in the security domain are less challenging to operationalise but constitute a real test of European governments’ mettle.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Full Mettle Jacket

&lt;p&gt;This month, the Unio Global Macro Council (GMC) Outlook discusses the potential outcome of Sunday’s German elections.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Key issues are immigration, economy, and military spending.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This election is set against a backdrop of significant geopolitical and economic challenges, including the Munich Peace Conference's recent pronouncements from American officials, urging Europe to take a greater role in its defence, particularly concerning Ukraine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We were delighted to be joined this month by guest speakers Dr Martin Moryson, Global Head of Economics, DWS Group and Simona Gambarini, Senior Market Strategist, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Thank you both for your valued input.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GMC-Outlook-February-2025.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;More in this month's GMC Outlook.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

German Revival?

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Conor Jordan, private client adviser in Unio's Independent Wealth team, discusses the rise in tech sector redundancies in Ireland, providing practical advice for managing finances during redundancy, including balancing short-term needs with long-term planning, managing outgoings, considering investments, clearing debts, and making pension 'top-up' payments. The article also emphasises the importance of seeking expert financial advice to navigate this transition and ensure long-term financial security. 4 minutes read.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It will be no surprise to read that in Ireland, there has been a significant increase in the number of redundancies within the tech sector.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;According to Eurofound (the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions), Ireland accounts for the largest proportion (around 40%) of all redundancies in the tech sector in the EU.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sixteen of the top twenty global tech companies and the top three enterprise software providers base their European Operations in Ireland, and 106,000 people are employed within the ICT industry.[i]&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The ‘Great Tech Reset’ began in 2022 and gathered pace into 2023 with an estimated 428,449 global tech workers losing their jobs.[ii] This continued into 2024 with over 150,000 cuts across 542 companies[iii] and according to &lt;a href=&quot;https://layoffs.fyi/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Layoffs.fyi&lt;/a&gt;, the first 2 months of 2025 has seen 47 tech companies lay off a further 11,663 employees.[iv]&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In January 2025 both Meta and Workday announced that they would be looking to make further cuts to their workforce this year. Meta will look to reduce their global workforce by around 5%[v] while Workday plans to cut 1,750 roles.[vi] Both companies employ approximately two thousand people through their Irish operation and those employees are waiting to hear how many of them will be affected by the redundancies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In today's economic landscape, for clients impacted by circumstances out of their control, facing redundancy can be a challenging chapter in one's career.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Amidst the potential emotional and financial stress of redundancy, making informed and considered decisions about your finances can be difficult.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Balancing the Short and Long-Term Considerations&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Redundancy often brings a lump sum severance payment, providing a financial cushion during the transition period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The immediate, shorter term financial decisions you make during this period could have an impact on your long-term financial health. It can be challenging to balance these more pressurized, short-term decisions while keeping your longer-term financial plan on track.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;5 top tips for managing your finances during a redundancy:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;-&lt;/strong&gt;Taking prudent steps to manage your outgoings insofar as it is possible.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The potential investment of the lump sum for the long-term, if you have another employment to move to, or if you have a sufficient emergency fund already in place.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Considering whether to clear debt, either mortgage related or more expensive short-term debt such as credit cards or car loans.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The decision as to how you elect to receive your redundancy payment, and particular waiving or retaining your pension tax-free lump sum.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Making a pension ‘top-up’ payment, if possible, to offset the potential interruption of contributions to your pension fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Need for Expert Financial Advice&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Seeking professional financial advice becomes paramount during this time. The stress of redundancy may hinder clear, strategic thinking about long-term financial planning. Financial Planners can offer clarity, guiding you through the options and ensuring your decisions align with your long-term financial goals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Expert advice can provide a clear roadmap, offering insights into optimizing your redundancy payment’s impact, it’s interaction with your pension fund and outlining clearly the steps you might take to safeguard your financial future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial Planning should contribute to all aspects of your wellbeing – financial, physical, mental and psychological. We are here to offer straightforward advice, to provide structured Financial Planning and to offer comfort that you are focused on things that you can control.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sources:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] https://www.idaireland.com/explore-your-sector/business-sectors/technology&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] https://techfundingnews.com/the-ripple-effect-of-big-tech-what-can-we-learn-from-startup-layoffs-in-2025&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/10/tech-layoffs-2024-list&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] https://layoffs.fyi&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/0212/1496282-irish-based-meta-staff-told-of-job-cuts&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/0212/1496282-irish-based-meta-staff-told-of-job-cuts&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] https://www.businesspost.ie/tech-news/fears-for-irish-job-losses-at-workday-after-firm-announces-plans-to-cut-1750-roles.&lt;/p&gt;

Navigating Redundancy in the Tech Sector

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;In this article, Shane Keegan explores common biases that investors often face when making financial decisions. He shares insights on how these biases can affect your investment choices and overall financial health. By recognising and addressing these biases, you can make more rational and informed decisions to help you achieve your long-term financial goals. Enjoy this quick 4-minute read!&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many people choose the start of a new year to review their situations and make plans for the months ahead, setting realistic (and sometimes, unrealistic!) resolutions.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While motivation is high, it is also the opportune time to review your current financial situation. Planning now can provide comfort for the year (or even years) ahead, ensuring you can spend the rest of your time focusing on what matters most to you.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We understand that with so many changes happening in the world (such as the recent US election, the resulting impending tariffs and ECB interest rate changes to name a small few), it can be difficult to ensure you keep yourself on track and don’t succumb to any noise being generated from outside sources.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;Recognising biases is one thing but addressing them requires a different approach as these are often emotional responses that influence our behaviour. Below, I outline some biases that you may find familiar:&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Market Timing&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Market Timing is where someone believes they can predict the markets. This leads people to believe they can buy / switch into a fund at a low price just before it goes up in value, allowing them to take advantage of this price increase. Unfortunately, a lot of people who believe they can time the market to their advantage do the opposite, buying high and then seeing a decline in fund values. This can lead to a false sense of urgency and trigger transactions that may not be advisable, such as claiming pensions early and risking their entire long-term retirement strategy in the process.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Recency Bias&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Recency Bias occurs when someone places too much stock on recent events rather than looking at the overall trend. An example of the impact on individuals is when they assume a fund will continue to perform well based on recent success, only to experience a subsequent decline in value. In terms of financial planning, this bias can result in portfolios that lack diversification, leading to sub-optimal performance, particularly when planning for retirement.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Anchoring&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Anchoring is where people base their decision on the first or most recent piece of information they receive. It can then lead to difficulty in adjusting their views when new information comes to light. Like Recency Bias, this can lead people to remain invested in the wrong fund or asset allocation. From a financial planning point of view, this can put long term strategy and your financial goals in jeopardy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Familiarity Bias&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Familiarity (or Loyalty) Bias can occur when people develop an emotional attachment to a particular fund or stock. This may happen to people who have worked in a particular industry or with the same company for a long period of time and feel a loyalty towards them. People often prefer familiarity, which can offer comfort. However, this can sometimes result in suboptimal investment decisions or long-term performance issues due to a lack of diversification in their portfolios.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Overconfidence&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Overconfidence can occur when people believe they have more control over their investments than they do. This can happen when people go against advice or do things on their own without fully understanding the consequences of their decisions (see Timing the Market above). This can result in selecting inappropriate funds or products for their circumstances, potentially leading to suboptimal investment returns, missing out on available tax breaks, or incurring higher fees that negatively affect their overall growth potential.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Loss Aversion&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Loss Aversion occurs when people fear the risk of potentially losing some (or all) of their funds to investment performance more than they wish to see potential returns. In fact, studies have shown that people feel losses twice as much as they celebrate any gains when it comes to fund performance. This can have a detrimental effect as the real value of their money can erode over time if it fails to keep pace with inflation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Framing Effect&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Framing Effect occurs when people make decisions based on how information is framed rather than the facts it is presenting. This can be related to many of the previous examples and may result in people choosing funds that underperform or have higher charges than expected. For instance, a product brochure might highlight fees selectively, resulting in individuals paying more than they realise when there may be another similar product offering the same service with lower overall charges.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio our advisers are experts in navigating these pitfalls and can offer practical and transparent advice to suit your unique circumstances. We can help you cut through the noise and make a plan that is suitable to your individual needs.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We believe that making a plan and sticking to it is crucial to success. We understand that true risk lies not in responding to market volatility or trends, but in failing to meet your long-term goals. We will put in the work to guide you through each step of your journey so you can rest easy knowing your plans will become a reality.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We listen to your story to help make your goals a reality and work with you to ensure you have time to focus on what is most important to you.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser, or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Overcoming Investor Bias

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning February 10th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week's investment briefing📽️&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/wJ1ROIvz1TE?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️&nbsp;The biggest macro news of the week is the German Election next weekend: Christian Democrats lead with 30%; far-right AfD rises to 21%&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for January to be released on February 19th&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️&nbsp;US housing starts and building permits for January due on February 19th&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️&nbsp;Japanese inflation data release on February 21st; current rate at 3.6%&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️&nbsp;HSBC earnings on February 19th; stock up 37.6% in the past year&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Walmart earnings on February 20th; stock up 77.5% in 2024&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, talk to us: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View, Week Beginning 17th February, 2025

&lt;p&gt;Will Europe look to trade more with China and India and less with its natural ally the US?&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What will Europe do if America abandons Ukraine and imposes tariffs on its erstwhile allies?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To discuss this and more Mike O'Sullivan, Director, Unio Wealth Management joined Newstalk's Joe Lynam this morning ahead of today's emergency European summit in Paris.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://link.goloudplayer.com/s/pGsEILdqd3u1&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;📻 Listen here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Unio on Newstalk

&lt;p&gt;The number 13 tram in Zurich winds its way through the centre of the city before turning and pushing uphill to the Uetliberg. The inhabitants of the tram are typically older people and bank employees, but occasionally you might come across a few excited, wealthy individuals journeying to look at their gold in the Credit Suisse (now UBS of course) building at Uetlihof. The entrance to the building is on the 8th floor, betraying a deep underground complex where it is said, the bank stores gold bars, and sometimes invites the owners of the gold to view their stash.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Those investors who own gold will be very happy.&nbsp;It has returned 40% in the past two years and is now closing in on the USD 3,000 level, despite a stronger dollar and high interest rates.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are few assets like gold. The vast majority of investors do not hold it, nor have they a sense of how its price behaves. But there are others who are passionate about gold and hold large quantities of it in their portfolios. Finance theory suggests investors should hold 2% of gold in a portfolio, but my experience is that in practice, it is either 0% or greater than 10%. To that end gold is a ‘Marmite’ asset class, because like the Marmite spread, you either love it or hate it.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It used to be that a difficult interview question for graduates was to ask them what the drivers of the gold price are. Now that question is more likely to focus on the drivers of bitcoin. Bitcoin’s architects likely wanted it to behave like digital gold, but instead it seems to trade like digital Nasdaq futures on steroids.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The gold price has perhaps three drivers – the role of gold as a monetary variable, the effects of commodity or physical demand and its role as a store of value in times of crisis.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Typically, gold as a ‘rival’ for paper money is driven by changes in the monetary environment – namely the value of the dollar and medium-term interest rates. For example, from the early 2000’s onwards the price of gold has moved inversely with the inflation adjusted yield on ten-year US bonds (rising bond yields tend to be bad for gold). But, in 2022, something funny happened – inflation adjusted bond yields rose, but gold kept rising and has not stopped since. Indeed, I now see more and more financial headlines that ‘gold is breaking out’, which is likely a sign that the ‘top’ is not far away.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The strength of the gold price is curious because in many quarters demand for gold has been muted – according to the Banque de France, demand for gold is made up of jewellery (49%),&nbsp;central banks (23%), financial investors (21%) and the electronics sector (7%).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In 2024, Chinese and Indian households have been buying more gold, and before that, emerging economy central banks – notably Russia and South Africa had been buyers, most probably to diversify out of dollars and euros given the risk of sanctions and asset confiscation. Financial holders of gold, exchange traded funds (ETF’s) have not been heavy buyers. Overall though, commercial and financial demand for gold has not been dramatically strong in the past eighteen months.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That still leaves a big chunk of gold’s outperformance unexplained (if it were only driven by the interest rate environment gold would likely be trading close to USD 2,000 given the stubbornness of high bond yields). There are likely two factors at play.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is technical. There is a short squeeze taking place in the gold market, which means that a lot of financial actors (bullion banks and speculators) have short positions in gold (hoping that the price will go down) and now have to buy gold to cover loss making positions. This short-squeeze is exacerbated by a spike in demand for physical gold because of fears of tariffs on gold and silver (from Canada – home to many gold miners).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second factor that is more interesting and harder to calibrate is geopolitics. Gold is a pure store of value – an asset to run to when the world is turned upside down. For those who live adventurous lives, a belt with gold coins sown in is a good escape plan (I have met at least one person with this plan). In a week where the global security architecture has been dismantled by the Trump administration, the reasons for holding gold are clear.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The disintegration of relations between the US and China, the uncertainty caused by tariffs and generally weak government finances across the G2 and G7 countries are just a couple of more detailed reasons to own gold. In that sense it is a barometer of ‘Trump’s world’, but also highly susceptible to his actions – he could send gold much higher if he announces tariffs on gold, but the prospect that he could let Russia off the financial hook as it were, is a reason to call the top.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Marmite

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;The article discusses the importance of regularly reviewing your finances with the help of a qualified financial adviser. It highlights the benefits of financial reviews, including achieving financial goals, saving more, reducing debt, and gaining confidence in financial decisions. 3&nbsp;minutes read.&lt;/em&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Let’s face it: managing your money is not always simple. Between saving for retirement, paying off your mortgage, helping your children or grandchildren through school or university, and planning holidays, it can feel like there’s never enough money or time to figure it all out.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Taking a step back from day-to-day concerns to take an in-depth and holistic view of finances, with the help of an expert qualified financial adviser, is time well spent. It is also among the best investments that you can make in yourself and your future.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Why have a Financial Review?&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A financial Review is like your financial GPS and helps you map out how to reach your financial goals. It’s not about restricting yourself – it is about making your money work for you. And no, you do not have to give up all the fun stuff (your Netflix subscription is safe!)&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The simplest way to stay on top of your finances is checking in on them at least once a year. A financial adviser can help you figure out where you stand and what steps to take. Think of it as your guide to everything from growing your savings to protecting your loved ones.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Research shows that individuals who review their finances regularly tend to save more, accumulate less debt, and feel more confident about their finances.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;While every client is unique, there is a common theme: everyone has life goals and financial triggers such as saving for their children's education or their retirement,&quot; says David Tighe, Head of Unio Wealth Solutions. &quot;Our team is committed to offering personalised advice and support, giving you peace of mind while helping you make the most of your financial resources.&quot;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Reviewing your finances regularly ensures you are prepared.&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Perhaps you have changed jobs, paid off debts, bought property or had another major life event. These changes can seriously impact your finances. A quick check up - reviewing your pension plans, insurance plans, and investments every year keeps everything in sync and can prevent big surprises down the line.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Consulting with a financial adviser provides the foundation of sound financial planning. Embrace the new year as a chance to review your financial goals and put yourself on a sound financial path.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio’s Expertise &lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Wealth Solutions Team combines an expert advisory team with a digitally enabled approach. Our streamlined processes mean we can spend more time focusing on your unique needs. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For our clients, this translates to a faster service, peace of mind and confidence in knowing that our expert advisory team is handling every detail.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you would like to find out more about how you can take control of your financial future, reach out to your Unio adviser by emailing&lt;a href=&quot;mailto:wealthsolutions@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; wealthsolutions@unio.ie&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Lynda McAuliffe QFA RPA FPRA is a private client adviser with our Wealth Solutions team at Unio Wealth Management. Lynda is based in Unio's Cork office.&lt;/p&gt;

Why Reviewing Your Finances Matters

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning February 10th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week's investment briefing📽️&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/W_3lV3Q-ixk?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ The focus is on US Headline and Core inflation statistics for January. Current headline and core inflation rates are 2.9% and 3.2% annually.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is at its highest level since the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown, as markets continue to digest policy initiatives set by the Trump administration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Closer to home, UK Year-on-Year and preliminary Q4 GDP data to be released. Whilst growth has slowed considerably over the last 2 years, it’s still expected that the UK economy will grow by 1.1%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ In earnings news: Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Nestle, and Cisco all release their quarterly earnings this week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;talk to us here. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View, Week Beginning 10th February, 2025

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Have you spent time living and working in the UK? You can maximise your pension benefits by understanding your UK State Pension entitlements and how voluntary National Insurance Contributions (NICs) can fill gaps in your record. This article guides you through the intricacies of the UK State Pension system, providing clear and concise steps to ensure you receive the maximum benefits you are entitled to.&nbsp;4 minutes read.&nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Did you know that, if you have worked and paid National Insurance (NI) in the UK, you may be able to claim a UK State Pension in addition to any Irish state pension you are entitled to?&nbsp;&nbsp;What is even better is that you can make additional voluntary NI Contributions (NICs) which could increase your entitlement.&nbsp;&nbsp;Paying UK voluntary NICs enables individuals to fill any gaps in their National Insurance record to boost their State Pension.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Deadline Approaching&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Individuals can usually only fill gaps in their NI record for the previous 6 years. However, as part of transitional arrangements introduced alongside the new State Pension from April 2016&lt;u&gt;,&lt;/u&gt; individuals were given the opportunity to pay voluntary NICs to make up any gaps in their NI record from 2006.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Deadline Extended Until 05 April 2025&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You have until the 5th of April 2025 to pay voluntary contributions to make up for gaps from 2006 and&lt;u&gt; &lt;/u&gt;after this deadline, you will only be able to pay contributions to cover the previous six years.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Am I eligible?&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Under current UK state pension rules, you need 35 qualifying years to be eligible for the full standard rate.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You must have &lt;strong&gt;10 qualifying years&lt;/strong&gt; on your national insurance record to receive the minimum UK State Pension.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A qualifying year is a year where you were;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;o&nbsp;&nbsp;working and made National Insurance contributions&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;o&nbsp;&nbsp;received National Insurance Credits, for example if you were ill, unemployed or a carer&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;o&nbsp;&nbsp;Paying voluntary National Insurance contributions&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland and the UK have a social security agreement which allows you to combine your pension contributions from both countries to meet the minimum eligibility requirements. For example, if you have worked 8 years in the UK and 4 years in Ireland, these can be combined to meet the 10-year requirement for the UK State Pension. It will be based on the number of years you contributed to the UK, and you may also be entitled to a portion of the Irish State Pension.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Alternatively, even if you have not worked the required amount of time to reach the minimum 10 years, you can make voluntary contributions to increase your record if you already have three years contributions. ‘&lt;strong&gt;Buy Back&lt;/strong&gt;’ is often the term used for these voluntary contributions.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You can continue to pay voluntary contributions each year going forward and if you have enough years left until you retire, you could reach the 35-year threshold and claim the full UK state pension.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How much does it cost to buy back years?&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The rates for the 2024 to 2025 tax year are:&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;£3.45&lt;/strong&gt; a week for &lt;strong&gt;Class 2&lt;/strong&gt; contributions (£179.40 p.a.)&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;£17.45 &lt;/strong&gt;a week for &lt;strong&gt;Class 3&lt;/strong&gt; contributions (£907.40 p.a.)&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You usually pay the current rate when you make a voluntary contribution.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Each year purchased will increase your State Pension entitlement by £329 per annum&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Class 2&lt;/strong&gt; contributions apply to anyone living abroad and working abroad, but only if you worked in the UK immediately before leaving, and you have previously lived in the UK for at least 3 years in a row or paid at least 3 years of contributions.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Class 3&lt;/strong&gt; contributions apply to anyone living abroad and not working, but only if at some point you have lived in the UK for at least 3 years in a row or paid at least 3 years of contributions.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is important to note, the cost of paying voluntary contributions/buying back years, is paid from personal funds.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;UK State Pensions are subject to tax. However, under the Double Taxation Agreement between Ireland and the UK, individuals should not be taxed twice on the same income.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What do you need to do ahead of the April deadline&lt;/strong&gt;?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Check your UK State Pension Forecast&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The forecast allows you to see your projected state pension entitlement based on your paid contributions. To check your UK State Pension forecast, you can do so either by phone, website, or post.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Phone&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To receive this forecast by phone, you can contact the Future Pension Centre &lt;strong&gt;- &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.gov.uk/future-pension-centre&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;contact details are listed here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Website&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.gov.uk/check-state-pension&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;You can apply online here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; i&lt;/strong&gt;f you have a Government Gateway ID.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Post&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would prefer to do this by post, you would be required to complete a BR19 Form&lt;a href=&quot;https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64366b69cc99800013b89381/br19-interactive-application-for-a-state-pension-statement.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt; which may be found here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Pay Voluntary Contributions&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once your forecast information has been confirmed and if you wish to proceed with paying voluntary contributions, your next steps are listed below.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Apply to HM Revenue and Customs for voluntary contributions ahead of the deadline.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The relevant Form CF83&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/guidance/apply-to-pay-ni-contributions-abroad/start/about-this-guidance&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt; may be found here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt;. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For further information refer to the following links or reach out to your Unio adviser.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.gov.uk/government/news/deadline-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions-extended-to-april-2025&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Extending the deadline for voluntary National Insurance contributions. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/social-security-abroad-ni38/guidance-on-social-security-abroad-ni38&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Guidance on Social Security abroad: NI38&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the author&lt;/strong&gt;: &lt;em&gt;Sarah Dunlea is a Financial Planner with Unio Wealth Management and has a wealth of experience working with high-net-worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&lt;/em&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Have you checked your UK State Pension Entitlements?

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Does anyone remember the Washington Consensus? Such a phrase might seem odd in today’s world but in the early 1990’s the notion of a ‘Washington Consensus’ was very powerful as a method for globalisation, and hotly debated by the left.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Globalisation worked well because, to be overly simplistic, it was facilitated by a very clear world order that helped to establish the rules of the ‘globalisation game’ and the norms associated with this. At their core, these rules were American, or at the very least, they were made in Washington within the institutions that were set up to marshal the post-World War II world order, the IMF (International Monetary Fund), the World Bank and the United Nations in New York. America held the purse strings of these organisations and regular meetings at these institutions became a means of schooling ministers from both developing and emerging economies in the ways of American economic power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;These discussions aired what soon became known as the ‘Washington Consensus’ – effectively an approach to world economic development and globalisation, that was denounced by critics on the left as a neo-liberal policy recipe book. With the benefit of hindsight today, the Washington Consensus was valuable in the sense that it was a consensus– though perhaps not agreed – it encapsulated an approach that many countries were content to go along with as part of their first foray into real economic development.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Today, the Washington Consensus is in disarray. The institutions that it was built around, like the IMF are defunct, and others like the WTO have been undermined by both China and the US in recent years. The decision of the US to leave the World Health Organisation is another blow. The ‘Consensus’ is dead because there are now other competing methods as to how countries can develop, and of the independent paths they can take. Here, an important milestone was Xi Jinping’s China Dream speech, in November 2012, which well before MAGA (Make America Great Again) coined the term ‘China Dream’ during a visit to the National Museum of China. Now, countries like Indonesia or Nigeria can try to follow the classical Western model of development, or China’s non-democratic, state led approach. Or, like Argentina and El Salvador, they can pursue the ‘Trumpian’ model that is taking a grip on Washington, but that is anything but a ‘Consensus’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Without going into the day-by-day developments coming from the White House, the second Trump presidency can be seen as a stage in the post-globalisation world order. Globalisation was based on American economic and political strength and promulgated by the ‘Washington Consensus’ and the B-52’s of American capitalism (multinationals). Eventually globalisation ran out of steam, and events like Brexit, the first Trump presidency and the snuffing out of Hong Kong’s democracy shattered it. We are now in a multi-polar world where at least three large powers (EU, China and the US) do things increasingly differently (look at how they treat AI).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Uniquely, this Trump presidency represents an attempt to do something new, and can be seen as an early stage in the formation of the new world order, and to an extent its success depends on the will and the coherence of the groups of people that are driving the Trump project (from sectors like private equity, innovation and wealthy families). One stark difference with globalization is already clear. Globalization was built on the US being umbilically tied to much of the rest of the world, and vice versa, by flows of ideas, money, trade and people. In contrast, it now seems that Trump 2.0 relies on American exceptionalism, attempting to rise above the rest of the world, and in the process severing the relationships and ties built up since the end of the First World War.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, consider the words delivered to &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-before-the-canadian-parliament-ottawa__;!!O22_8FOSssc!k4bBqMZCUxMjUlGnV2Ju8mQZki9K1DsirG07FcQUfaukBO_tVo14m7dTbjVpT5ni1MSxzA48r04mCLY_RoDv--mU$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Canadians by President Kennedy&lt;/a&gt; in May 1961 ‘Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies’ and how remarkably different they are to the way the Donald Trump has treated Canada.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context, the rest of the world may increasingly choose to avoid America, and the risk to ‘Exceptional America’, notably with the dollar as strong as it is, is that its financial power ebbs, in the way that of many other empires has. The template for this is expertly laid out in Barry Eichengren’s ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.nber.org/papers/w24145__;!!O22_8FOSssc!k4bBqMZCUxMjUlGnV2Ju8mQZki9K1DsirG07FcQUfaukBO_tVo14m7dTbjVpT5ni1MSxzA48r04mCLY_RmHZmXUe$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Mars or Mercury’&lt;/a&gt; paper that analysed the link between empires and their monies, though I feel that in the absence of obviously strong competing currencies, this thesis could take time to play out.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A more plausible side-effect of ‘exceptional’ America, is the advent of a new point of economic gravity, pinpointed at the UAE (United Arab Emirates). This is my ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/w-e-n-a&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Fourth Pole’ thesis&lt;/a&gt; – that the UAE together with India and Saudi Arabia has the makings of a new pole of trade and commercial activity, with low regulatory barriers and that encompasses a potentially huge market (Prof Afshin Molavi calculates that there are 2.5bn bn people within five hours flying time of Abu Dhabi). The Mercosur trade deal between Latin America and the EU might also be the basis for a new trade corridor.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The other necessary outcome in a world where America is going its own way, is that Europe stops trying to contain Trump, and takes a far more aggressive stance with respect to its risk environment, notably Russia. The German election in two week’s time might be the start of that stance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Remember the Washington Consensus?

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Technology happens quickly. This time two years ago, few people had heard about ChatGPT, and few investors knew what Nvidia did. On January 6th 2023, I wrote a note entitled ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2023/01/06/talos/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jW_fkXuO5C243TaS3Eyb8QWlrZB8KR1DxOQl04Cjx6CP7IfDe0-ZfpfCtz9clZzhoC9B_ooY-M-mx6qRb8SqOBhk$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Talos&lt;/a&gt;’ where I remarked...&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;’A recent development here is the arrival of ChatGPT an interactive ‘intelligent’ bot that has been developed by OpenAI (set up seven years ago to build socially constructive AI, and recently valued at USD 30bn). ChatGPT is catching on quickly, not least because students have found that it can write half decent essays. I recently tested it out, asking for a response to the question ‘Is globalization over?’- the result is below, and in my humble opinion is a good rendition of the kind of response that a ‘two handed economist’ might give (‘on one hand…on the other’). I think I can just about do better, and if there is any lesson to draw it is for human writers to be more opinionated, quirky or style driven in how they write. I am not out of a job just yet.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I am still writing, and don’t use ChatGPT to do so. In January 2023, my presumption was that because ChatGPT had already been in place for some time, investors knew about it and had factored it into share prices (the theory of efficient markets in finance says that all publicly available information is quickly reflected in market prices).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This was not the case, and with hindsight, I realise that students of economic and finance of the 1990’s spent far too much time imbibing the ‘efficient markets hypothesis’, which was a big thing at the time and the&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.princeton.edu/*ceps/workingpapers/91malkiel.pdf__;fg!!O22_8FOSssc!jW_fkXuO5C243TaS3Eyb8QWlrZB8KR1DxOQl04Cjx6CP7IfDe0-ZfpfCtz9clZzhoC9B_ooY-M-mx6qRbyp67IFO$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; big guns of academic finance raged about it into the 2000’s&lt;/a&gt;. I suspect that more people today believe markets are rigged than efficient, with the rigging done by vampire squid type funds and central banks, to name a few culprits.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The performance of AI centric stocks (notably Nvidia) shows that the early promise of AI was underestimated, perhaps to the extent to which it is overestimated today. Indeed, the concentration of the top ten companies in the US stock market (they make up 40% of the market capitalisation) is as high as it only has been in 1930. In that context, the apparent supplanting of ChatGPT by DeepSeek (we might call it ‘Chatccp’) in the Apple app store is a reality check.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It is also an efficient markets check. I had seen the initial model test results from DeepSeek at the start of this year (Azeem Azhar’s blog had mentioned it back in November, and also as far back as &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-451?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jW_fkXuO5C243TaS3Eyb8QWlrZB8KR1DxOQl04Cjx6CP7IfDe0-ZfpfCtz9clZzhoC9B_ooY-M-mx6qRb-FaIfTY$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;December 2023&lt;/a&gt;). To that end, the technology world has been well aware of DeepSeek for months, so it is a surprise, and another slap in the face for efficient markets hypothesis (I am still a little obsessed about this).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whatever about efficient markets, the advent of DeepSeek is a reminder of how the cycle of innovation in economies works, and will have some commentators rushing for their Schumpeter. The Austrian economist coined the term ‘creative destruction’, but his views on capitalism are worth re-reading for he believed that it would undermine itself (different cohorts or corporates would effectively block the system) and collapse. His work on business cycles is also well overdue a comeback.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;We don’t quite know whether DeepSeek (who claim to have produced superior model results compared to ChatGPT and Claude AI for a fraction of the cost) have been helped by the Chinese state, whether any espionage is involved nor the extent to which they have piggybacked on work already done by US based teams. Nor is it too important that the bandwidth of the model is restricted in China and that it is unlikely to be widely used in the West.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The important development is that the cost of production threshold for large AI models has been set much lower. Other cheaper models are on the way, Bytedance's Doubao-1.5 or Moonshot's Kimi k1.5 are two emerging examples.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;To that end, the first phase in the AI boom now comes to an end. Much like other key technology infrastructure breakthroughs – railway (railway companies made up 50% of the stock market in 1900), automobiles (France dominated the auto market from 1903 to 1929, at times manufacturing half of the world’s cars) to the internet (anyone remember AOL or Netscape”) – the initial innovation garners huge amounts of capital, is expected to change the world, which it does but often not in the ways investors expect. The legacy is usually a new web of infrastructure.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the next phase of AI, Investors will now not likely pay up for model developers but will focus on unique datasets, applications of AI (health) and the AI industrial supply chain - energy for AI for example (see last week’s note ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/humphrey&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Humphrey&lt;/a&gt;’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The view of the stock market, which quickly rebounded, is that the consumer is the winner – that DeepSeek opens up the prospect of cheaper, better AI for common use, and I think the investor conversation will turn to how this impacts consumption patterns and the way people work (from police officers to teachers).&nbsp;The fact that the stock market took the positive view of the DeepSeek news suggests that the AI bubble in stocks is alive and well.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Elsewhere in AI, model development is accelerating in a sinister way. In a paper entitled &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/ai-red-line-b2687013.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;‘Frontier AI systems have surpassed the self-replicating red line’,&lt;/a&gt; scientists at Fudan university highlight how AI can build replicates of itself, and when this process runs into obstacles, demonstrate a survival instinct (such as rebooting hardware to fix errors). It strikes me that this is the real AI development we need to pay attention to.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Revenge of the Textbook

&lt;p&gt;The January Global Macro Council( GMC) Outlook highlights that 2025 might be the year to move away from expensive, high-performing assets that had strong momentum in 2024. Better diversification could lead to better long-term returns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this month's GMC, we were fortunate to be joined by guest speakers Moritz Brand Portfolio Manager at Invesco Quantitative Strategies and Fawaz A Chaudhry Partner &amp; Head of Equities at Fulcrum Asset Management. Thank you both for your insights and expertise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-January-2025-_Year-of-the-Contrarian.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read this month's GMC outlook in full.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Market Trends&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Liquidity injections from central banks have driven momentum in markets over the last decade.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Expensive growth stocks have outperformed value stocks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The dollar has shown strong momentum in the past two years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Current Asset Valuations&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Significant capital is tied up in top technology firms, the dollar, and corporate bonds, all at all-time high valuations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The dollar is the most expensive it has been since the early nineties.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• US stock valuations are close to the highest levels since the late 1990s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The top fifteen US companies are worth as much as the Chinese and European equity markets combined.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Investment Strategy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• There is no bubble in the broad US market, but the significant amount of capital in very expensive dollar assets demands attention and action from investors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Better diversification, especially away from very expensive assets, could lead to better long-term returns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Influencing Factors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The collapse in long-term US bonds signals a resurgence of inflation and potential creditworthiness issues for the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• President Trump's executive orders on various topics might warrant a diversification strategy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Year of the Contrarian?

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning January 27th, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our investment brief in full 📽️:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/Lk2GB8wb0kQ?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ The Magnificent 7 will report quarterly results: Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla on the 29th; Apple on the 30th. These stocks have driven strong equity market performance in 2023 and 2024, dominating the S&amp;P 500 index.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Following Trump's energy emergency declaration, investors await oil companies' outlooks for the year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ On the macro side, the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement is due on the 29th, with no change expected however there will be close attention to outlook and forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ In Europe, the ECB is set to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.9% on the 30th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;talk to us.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 27th January, 2025

&lt;p&gt;I’m glad to mention that my ‘GoldenEye’ note generated a lot of feedback, some of it cursing my good luck to spend a week in the Caribbean. To atone, I spent four days last week in the foggy cold of England, touring from Oxford to Manchester to the Cotswolds and finishing in London. Many of the places I visited are points of reference that I have known for a long time. Some have changed for the better (the Elizabeth line in London is very useful), some for the worse (this Manchester United team is indeed the worst ever), and some have not changed at all (the food at Pepper’s Burgers in Oxford is just as good as it was thirty years ago).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Economically and politically, Britain is worse off. Brexit has been a terrible misstep, and the new Labour government is struggling to even diagnose the sputtering economy. Real-wage growth is feeble, productivity is at multi-decade lows, the fiscal deficit dominates policy making and the bond market is more troubled than when Liz Truss was prime minister. The only saving grace is that Britain isn’t Germany.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In foreign policy, while Britain is an active supporter of Ukraine and still a UN Security Council member, it is at risk of becoming lost geopolitically – Britain is stranded outside the EU and the special relationship between Washington and London is all but dead politically in the Trump 2.0 era.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, Britain is good at remaking itself. I think that at some point it will have its ‘Brian’ moment when, to borrow from the Monty Python film (The Life of Brian), a political leader will emerge, haphazardly or by design, with the force of personality and ideas to right the country. Nigel Farage is not this person, and without being unkind, I am not sure that Keir Starmer is either.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It used to be the case that Britain didn’t need talented politicians; it had a large, expert civil service to run the country. Instead of ‘Brian’s’ it had ‘Humphreys’ after ‘Sir Humphrey Appleby’ the fictional cabinet secretary in the excellent 1980’s tv series ‘Yes, (Prime) Minister’. The series revolves around the art of non-decisions and the careful practice by civil servants of keeping elected officials far from the levers of power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When the engine of the economy was whirring, the job of the ‘Humphreys’ was to keep politicians from putting a spanner in the works. Now that productivity is dead across the UK (below the US, Germany and France) due to a lack of investment in capital and skills, the country needs to be inspired by new ideas. Thankfully, two of them came along last week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first was the latest in a series of notes on the UK economy by the excellent &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.longvieweconomics.com/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!i5Mdr0wxE6xjkP0eqq4wJkZVwMa1gNCaoRv5nxABPNcsfebGmi_rs4P8esFEO4OmaQLGMqAXwfjfzbfNROjOnFZ6$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;LongView Economics.&lt;/a&gt; In brief, their diagnosis is that Britain faces several, long-growing problems – to many ‘Humphreys’ or rather too much regulation and bureaucracy (government spending is at seventy year highs), the death of risk capital and the need to re-generate investment flows across the British economy and the financialization of the economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two of the solutions flagged by LongView are the needs to reform the NHS and to cut bureaucracy across government. This might happen sooner than many think because the second inspirational idea to come out of the UK was the launch a week ago of the &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-opportunities-action-plan/ai-opportunities-action-plan__;!!O22_8FOSssc!i5Mdr0wxE6xjkP0eqq4wJkZVwMa1gNCaoRv5nxABPNcsfebGmi_rs4P8esFEO4OmaQLGMqAXwfjfzbfNRASdxsRp$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;UK AI Opportunities Action Plan&lt;/a&gt;, which in effect was authored by the venture capitalist Matt Clifford with a little help from the likes of Sir Demis Hassabis. It is applied and well thought through enough that it could not have been written by civil servants. In a week where the USD 500bn Softbank/OpenAI/Oracle AI investment has grabbed the headlines, the UK AI Plan deserves much closer attention and, in my view, is the best framework for an AI value chain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whilst there are fifty recommendations in the report, all of which have been endorsed by the government, the main ones involve ‘feeding’ AI models by making high quality data more available (changing copyright laws), accelerate investment in data centres and also set up an AI Energy Council to plan the energy sources to power the data centres. There are also plans for a national data library and for the use of AI in the NHS.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One striking element, announced this Tuesday, is the use of AI assistants to speed up public services, with data-sharing deals across siloed departments; and a new set of AI tools — dubbed “Humphrey”. The aim is to speed up and make the work of civil servants more efficient – with the stated aim of saving GBP 55bn (this is very ambitious and if achieved would cut significantly into the budget deficit).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The plan, at least, is ambitious. Whether or not the Labour government can implement this plan is very much an open question but at least they have in their hands a blueprint for investment and perhaps the beginning of something better for the British economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Humphrey

&lt;p&gt;Unio Wealth Management has launched its monthly thought leadership series for 2025, the themes of which underpin financial advice to our clients.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read more: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Unio-Themes-2025-1.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Unio Wealth Management Monthly Thought Leadership Series&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2025 will see the dawning of a new world where new rules and ways of doing things are crafted, but also one where impatience is a symptom of an unclear future for many countries, companies and households.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, Unio is launching a monthly thought leadership series - New World, New Rules, Your Wealth - that will examine and debate how Ireland – from the point of view of its economy, politics and diplomacy – will be affected by this ‘new world under new rules’ theme.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Specifically, we will interrogate a number of strategic themes, that will command investors’ attention this year:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ireland and the EU&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The UK Splutters&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ireland’s Relationship With the US&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ireland's Security Posture&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Deep Tech and Strategic Autonomy&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Immigration&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Small States&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A constant thread through these themes is the relevance to financial markets, a sense of what international investors are doing and the implications for our clients’ portfolios: corporate; SME; and, professionals and executives in Ireland.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch below as Mike O'Sullivan goes into more detail on each of the themes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch the short clip below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/MVFDZyvmCFo?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

New World, New Rules, Your Wealth.

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Navigating Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Pensions: Making Informed Decisions&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;This article compares Defined Benefit (DB) and Defined Contribution (DC) pensions. DB pensions offer guaranteed income, while DC pensions involve investment risk for the employee. Employers prefer DC schemes due to predictable costs. Transfer values allow employees to switch from DB to DC pensions, with potential benefits like inheritance options. The decision to transfer involves assessing financial factors, risk, and personal circumstances with the help of a financial adviser. 4 minutes read.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;DB pensions, where your former employer pays you a guaranteed income, have been described as the ultimate gold-plated pension.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Modern Pension Plans &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Most employers now offer a DC pension, where they provide employees with a set amount of money to invest in a pension plan. The employee takes on the investment risk and the uncertainty of whether the pension pot they have at retirement will be enough to support them in retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Employer Preferences&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Employers prefer DC schemes, because they know exactly what they need to pay into them each year for their employees, and after that, their obligation is satisfied. In contrast, DB schemes can be a large liability on the company balance sheet, because ultimately, they don’t know how long they will be paying out that guaranteed income – will all of the retired employees end up being centurions, with the company liable to pay them a guaranteed income for thirty or forty years?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Transfer Values&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Facing this uncertain cost, many companies offer pension scheme members transfer values. What this means is that they hand the member a DC pension in exchange for the member giving up their DB pension, that guaranteed income for life. The member takes on the investment risk and manages the pension to give them enough income to live on in retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Benefits of Transfer Values &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, there can be upsides to taking a transfer value too for example, what happens if the member passes away? With a DB pension, the pension payable each year is paid to the spouse, but is usually reduced by a third, or in some cases even by half. Then, upon the death of the surviving spouse, it ceases to pay completely. In some cases, there is no spouse’s pension at all, no value can be passed on to their children or other family members. In contrast, with a DC pension, the full value of the pension pot can pass to the spouse and estate just like any other asset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Factors Influencing Transfer Values &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The transfer value on offer may fluctuate over time, and this is driven by multiple factors. The most important are bond yields and how long the member has left until retirement. Typically, as bond yields increase, we see transfer values reduce, and vice versa. Also, as the member grows closer to retirement age, typically transfer values increase. Other things that can influence the transfer value on offer include the funding status of the scheme, and whether any enhancement is being offered by the sponsoring firm to incentivise the member to take the transfer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Making the Decision&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are many financial factors to be considered when weighing up a transfer value, but ultimately, it is a personal decision – a huge personal decision. If you choose to take the transfer value, there is no going back into the DB scheme. It can be a daunting decision to make. The process starts with a transfer value offer letter being received by the member, with no further context or analysis beyond the simple numbers of what their defined benefit entitlement is, and what the transfer value on offer is.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Our Approach&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We take a two-pronged approach when a client comes to us with a transfer value offer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;First, we assess whether the transfer value could provide them with the same level of income as the DB pension would, also considering what level of investment risk would have to be taken to achieve this.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Then we assess how the client’s risk profile stacks up against this required risk level.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Comprehensive Analysis&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Following this assessment, we look at the big picture. We run a cashflow analysis incorporating all the client’s assets, income, expenses, and liabilities, with one scenario showing their financial position if they remain in the DB scheme, and a second showing what might change &lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;if&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt; they take the transfer value.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We then move on to look at the personal side of things. What level of income does the client need, and how do they value security of income? Do they want to leave an inheritance to their family some day? How is their health, is there an increased risk of passing away early in retirement? Then we must assess how the client would deal with investment risk.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Considerations and Conclusions &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These factors represent just a fraction of the many considerations that must be taken into account when deciding whether to accept or decline a transfer value. By speaking to your financial adviser, you can gain valuable insights into the essential context surrounding transfer values, ensuring that your decision is well-informed and made with confidence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the author&lt;/strong&gt;: &lt;em&gt;Yvonne Clinton is a Financial Planner with Unio Wealth Management and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Navigating Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Pensions

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning January 20th, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our investment brief in full 📽️:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/iCWCh6XuNTY?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Earnings season kicked off with a bang last week with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs exceeding earnings and profit forecasts thanks to strong trading revenue.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Looking ahead to this week, several well know companies will report earnings: Netflix on the 21st; Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;on the 22nd; and, American Express on the 24th. Over the past year American Express’s stock has risen c.69% as financial services companies continue to thrive.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Today is a big day in the US as the transfer of power between President Biden and Trump will take place at approximately 12:00 EST inside the Capitol Building.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ On the 21st, UK unemployment data for November will be released. Recent UK macroeconomic data has been generally muted. Bank of England officials may need to respond more quickly if the jobs report indicates weakness.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 20th January.

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I may well lose half of my readers with the next sentence but, whilst many of you were struggling in sub-zero temperatures I spent much of last week in the Caribbean. As the plane passed south over azure sea and white beaches, I thought to myself that we were not far from Goldeneye, the Jamaican residence of ‘James Bond’ author Ian Fleming. Indeed, the character of James Bond has some local Caribbean flavour, Fleming was a keen ornithologist and named his main character after an expert ornithologist and author of ‘Birds of the West Indies’ called James Bond, who subsequently visited Fleming at Goldeneye in 1964 (Goldeneye was the name of a 1941 intelligence operation in Spain that Fleming as involved in).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Early in his career, Fleming struggled to match his more illustrious father and brother (the excellent ‘Geographies, Genders and Geopolitics of James Bond’ by Lisa Funnell and Klaus Dodd underlines how Fleming’s conception of Bond was influenced by both his brother and father), and his military career really only took off when he took up a role in Intelligence (he worked at Room 37 at the Admiralty).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;He was given charge of a small but telling operation whose aim was to conceive high impact missions that had little chance of success, but that would confuse the enemy. His playbook of operations was called the Trout Memo – after the fly-fishing technique designed to entrap trout. The conception of these high risk missions formed the basis for the James Bond novels, which from 1953 onwards were very popular, and by 1965 the series had reached thirteen books.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In 1965 the writer Kingsley Amis, well known as a serious critic, poet and author, published the book ‘The James Bond Dossier’, an analysis of Ian Fleming’s Bond novels. The book which contains studied lists of Bond’s victims, lovers (at my count Bond prefers English, American, French and then Swedish ‘friends’) and adversaries (few governments, mostly individuals and warped older male sociopaths at that), helped Amis enter the world of popular culture – he clearly had a sense of the allure and longevity of the Bond brand.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some of the films based on Fleming’s work have been spot on in identifying threats and trends. On the whole and perhaps reflecting Fleming’s own operations, many of them involve the disruption of supply chains and the resulting profiteering – for instance Goldeneye was based on the deployment of an electromagnetic device to rob the Bank of England (don’t forget that Goldfinger plotted to use a dirty bomb to steal gold from Fort Knox), Tomorrow Never Dies Involved the manipulation of the media, in Die Another Day a satellite is used to manipulate the weather over North Korea and so on.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the Bond film franchise is struggling to settle on a new actor to take over from Daniel Craig, my sense is that we live in a world that is increasingly Bond like in its geopolitics. Whilst the period of globalizations was relatively calm, we are now in the midst of a number of trends that are Bondesque – a Cold War between the US and China, a grey war between Russia and Europe, NATO re-armament (which featured in Thunderball), the rise of oligarchy and the advent of space as a competitive domain, to mention a few.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Every time I leave Europe, the intensity of the US-China struggle for supremacy strikes me, though I feel that most Europeans are not alive to this. Neither are they alive to the shadow war that Russia (with help from China) is prosecuting on Europe. The Polish government (holder of the EU rotating presidency) unveiled a sabotage campaign by Russia to target freight aircraft across Europe. This comes after a series of assassinations, sabotage attacks and hacking campaigns that Russia has prosecuted in Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Back in the Caribbean, a striking event last week was the disintegration of Elon Musk’s Starship, which reminds us of the sharp rise of oligarchs as political operators (as highlighted by President Biden), and of how space is opening up as a new, competitive domain (Bond film Moonraker gave us a taste of this).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In particular, the entry of Musk into the operation of military innovation and procurement is a sign of a wave of aerospace and defence innovation, that is being pioneered by firms like Shield AI, Helsing AI and Anduril. As a sample of the thinking behind this innovations, one idea that was put to me recently is to replace fighter jets with hypersonic rockets that carry and deploy drones to the battlefield. Of course, the trouble with most of these technologies is that they are unmanned, leaving little room for Bond like characters to distinguish themselves.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A final element worth mentioning is geopolitical power. Britain is a much less consequential player geopolitically than it was in the 1950’s, but it still retains a seat on the UN Security Council for instance. The trouble is that many of the institutional reference points of the Fleming era are losing their lustre, and risk being replaced by an entirely new set of institutions, and we could speculate that in the future we will see the development of a World Cyber Police, an AI led World AI Safety Institute and an authority to police genetic editing and DNA hacking, all of which might feature in future Bond plots.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;James Bond may be on hold as a cinematic experience, but I wonder if the next Bond movie should be called ‘No Time for Tariffs’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Goldeneye

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning January 13th, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our full investment brief 📽️:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/Rl4VjRCiCeQ?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ It’s the start of Q4 reporting this week and JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Blackrock lead the way reporting their Q4 earnings on the 15th. The S&amp;P 500 financials sector rose over 26% in 2024 as banks continue to benefit from higher interest rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ UK inflation and GDP data will be released on the 15th and 16th respectively. Current UK inflation stands at 2.6% and is expected to rise to 2.7% due to higher energy prices and increased Christmas spending.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ US inflation data for December will be released on the 15th and the headline rate is expected to rise 0.1% to 2.8%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Increased demand from China, lower US inventories and continued supply cuts from OPEC+ along with increased winter fuel demand has pushed oil prices to their highest level in over 3 months. YTD WTI crude is up 6.7% at $77.27 p/b.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 13th January

&lt;p&gt;Mike O'Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio Wealth Management in conversation with John Daly, The Irish Examiner. Mike talks about how despite the many challenges Ireland faces, most notably inflation, the country is still very competitive compared to many other European countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“If I had to pick one way in which Ireland is different to other countries, I would say that while it is an old country, it has a young society and younger economy, in terms of structural development,” he says, referencing Joe Lee’s book on Irish history, which speaks of a long history of economic underachievement.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“I illustrate this to people with a chart of Irish GDP compared to that of Britain, starting in 1800 up to today. What it shows is a very long period of economic underdevelopment, right up to 1990, when the Berlin wall fell, globalisation kicked off and Ireland rode its coattails.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;Since then, Ireland has become a wealthy country, but the fact that it has happened quickly, and in a boom-and-bust style, means that the investment infrastructure and culture of infrastructure that you might find in older economies — from Sweden to France — is not yet there.”&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While personal wealth has grown significantly, with the number of people with net assets of over €1m having doubled in the last decade, Ireland is under-served in terms of wealth management advice.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;“As a trusted wealth adviser, Unio’s goal is to move our clients from being passive wealth holders to active wealth builders.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;In this context, Ireland has a lot of upsides because we are at the beginning of a generational transfer in wealth, one that hopefully becomes more meaningful in the ways it can help Irish firms to grow. The challenge is to get policymakers to take a very fresh look at the way investment works in Ireland,” he adds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Challenges facing Ireland&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Looking at the more significant challenges facing Ireland in the future, his instinct is to look beyond 2025. “I think the biggest economic issue will be inflation — and to focus on reshaping our economic model so that it enables Ireland to advance in terms of economic sophistication and as a society. We need a longer-term investment model, more Irish growth companies and a complete overhaul of infrastructure.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The issue Ireland faces is not a lack of money, but a lack of know-how in planning and executing infrastructure projects — which is something other peer countries like Denmark and Sweden have.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland has done very well from globalisation, but he points out this is changing fast: “As the ‘tide goes out’, Ireland is being exposed in terms of its lack of defence and security capabilities and a total absence of geopolitical and security alertness in our political class.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;It worries me that, in the same way, Ireland was unprepared for the 2008 economic collapse, we are similarly unprepared for a rougher, chaotic world order.”&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The investment landscape is profoundly influenced by both global and local politics, he says, where diplomatic relations, regional conflicts and political stability all shape investor sentiment and market dynamics.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“At Unio, understanding this interplay is key to navigating financial markets and helping clients maximise their financial lives and futures.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Given how 2024 delivered political and economic turbulence to the eurozone, with its largest economies, Germany and France, facing significant challenges, Mike O’Sullivan takes an optimistic view.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“It seems to me that, in a volatile way, the eurozone has become stronger institutionally through every crisis that has befallen it — Brexit and covid being the latest examples.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;However, across the EU, France and Germany are ‘unwell’ economically, but there is an important power shift to the east, notably the Baltic states and Poland, and Spain is growing strongly.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;I would say that the one element of the European debate that is not felt in Ireland is the need to prepare industry, the technology sector and militaries for conflict with Russia. Denmark, for example, has just added €5bn to its military budget.”&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Global uncertainty&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With incoming US president Donald Trump taking office on January 20, and general anticipation of more global uncertainty, Ireland’s position is better than that of many of our EU neighbours.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In some respects, it is too late to worry — we have known for some time that the economy is over-reliant on foreign direct investment, but policy has not reacted to this. Having said that, those multinationals are deeply embedded in our economy, so a sudden exit is unlikely.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;In addition, in other ways, Ireland is still a very competitive economy compared to many EU neighbours,” he says.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“I think the recent election was a good example of how grounded and local Irish politics is, and that is a good thing. There are other elements of Irish democracy — like the citizens' assembly — that are also admirable. Yet, lower turnout is a worry, as is the impact of social media on public life and the quality of political debate across the world.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;The other element that needs to be balanced is that our political system rewards politicians for focusing too much on local issues, often to the detriment of the ‘bigger picture’.&quot;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While maintaining continued contact with his native Cork, Mike readily admits that living in the ‘City of Light’ does have its moments.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“It’s a wonderful place to live. We are right in the city centre so have witnessed many of the events that define Paris — including the fire at Notre Dame and the Olympics. The city is thriving and very liveable.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we help high earners achieve their full financial potential. Using our proprietary wealth planning framework we work with our clients to plan their future and importantly, how to fund it. If you would like to speak to a Unio Wealth Management adviser, visit&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Let's Talk | Unio Wealth Management&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-41550316.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This is an excerpt from an article that appeared in The Irish Examiner, January 10th, 2025&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Ireland’s position is better than that of many of our EU neighbours

&lt;p&gt;We spent a memorable New Year’s Eve on Dursey Island, one of the more remote parts of Europe, whose only point of access to the Irish mainland is by ‘Ireland’s only cable car’, where the principal safety device is a bottle of holy water. In 1602, Dursey was the scene of the massacre of some of the O’Sullivan clan. Some six hundred years before that, it was a staging post for the Vikings.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I am tempted to think that had the Vikings stayed the O’Sullivans could have escaped the slaughter of the Siege of Dunboy, but then again, always optimistic, I contend myself that Dursey – unlike the other Viking island (Greenland) will not attract the attention of the US Navy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My intention this year is to be as least distracted as possible by the geopolitical strategizing of President Trump, but in the context of a far more ideological cabinet, his thoughts have consequences – not least for how they will encourage the enemies of America and the ‘west’ to behave.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For investors, political and geopolitical risks will likely play a much greater role in developed market asset returns than in any time over the past forty years, and the market reaction to Donald Trump’s victory offers them a wonderful opportunity to take a contrarian view and ‘spend American exceptionalism’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To explain what I mean by that, our starting point in 2025 is that an array of US assets trade at very high levels. Indeed, to recap a phrase I used in December markets are starting 2025 from the ‘wrong place’ in the sense that an enormous amount of capital is tied up in assets (the top ‘7’ technology firms, the dollar, corporate bonds) that trade at all time lofty valuations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For instance, Bank of America estimates that the dollar is the most expensive that it has been since the early nineties, and valuations for US stocks are close to the highest levels they have reached since the late 1990’s. The top fifteen companies in the US are now worth the same as Chinese and European equity markets together.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Added to that, quite a few assets have exploded in value because of their proximity to Donald Trump – notably the crypto eco-system and Tesla (which has added USD 850bn in market value around the time of the election, an amount equal to the value of its ten nearest competitors).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is not yet a bubble in the broad US market – many segments such as value stocks (high dividend companies) and small companies have not performed, but there is sufficient capital held in very expensive dollar denominated assets that it demands the attention and action of investors.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Market analysts do not appear worried – in the time-honoured fashion the major investment houses have released their year ahead forecasts, which suspiciously all cluster around the 10% market, and equally suspiciously no investment house is forecasting a negative year for US stocks. This collective conclusion must have required great analytical power because an independent re-running of these same models points to flat or negative returns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, investors should take advantage of expensive dollar assets and diversify abroad.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;They may be convinced to do so by two developments. The first is the collapse in long term US bonds since the Federal Reserve launched into a series of rate cuts from September onwards. In effect the bond market is signalling that it sees a resurgence of inflation ahead, and it is also likely flagging that the credit worthiness of the US may be deteriorating (in the sense that there is little prospect of the budget deficit and government debt being pared back).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Related to this, the second Trump administration begins in a much worse fiscal place as the first Trump government did in 2016. In the period 1960 to 2016 (with the exception of the Vietnam War) the US budget deficit has always followed the tempo of the business cycle (as proxied by unemployment).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That is to say that the budget deficit shrunk when the economy was strong (low unemployment) and it grew when the government spent more to cushion the effects of recession (high unemployment).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Today, we have the opposite – unemployment is low and the budget deficit is very high. This implies three risks – that too much spending in a ‘hot’ economy creates inflation, that there won't be any money left to ‘rescue’ an eventual recession, and that the rising deficit implies rising debt, which bond markets don’t like.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;None of these risks, and rising bond yields, appear to worry the US equity and corporate bond market, but they should. A contrarian view might look to sell expensive dollar denominated assets and allocate overseas.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So my message to start the year is – don’t invade Denmark, buy its equity market.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Contrarians and Controversialists

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View, our weekly investments brief covering global markets and macro news.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our full investment brief📽️ below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/75LJY9eyaSQ?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first full trading week of the new year will be keenly watched given the tumultuous Christmas period for markets.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Turkey's central bank announced it’s first rate cut since Feb 2023, reducing it’s key rate from 50% to 47.5%&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ The release of the FOMC Minutes on the 8th could offer more detail on the Federal Reserve’s outlook for 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ EU inflation rate data will be released on the 7th along with an update on European unemployment rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ In the US jobs data will be front and centre as there will be updates on JOLTs Job Openings (7th), Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate (both the 10th).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 6th January

&lt;p&gt;The December Global Macro Council Outlook highlights four broad themes for 2025: portfolio agility, fiscal policy after elections, trade wars influencing a multipolar world, and risks such as a potential recession in China. Europe is shifting towards strategic autonomy, presenting new private investment opportunities in sectors like space, quantum, and defence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-December-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more in this month's Outlook.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Four Pillars for 2025

&lt;p&gt;I filed my article early this week for two reasons. On Friday morning, we headed to Cork for holidays and I attach a link with a short list of&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeosullivan/2024/12/17/what-books-to-read-for-christmas/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;suggested Christmas reading&lt;/a&gt;, and hope you have a chance to get to the bookshop (always a more rewarding experience than buying online).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Granted that it is year end, I am often caught up in the swirl of ‘2025’ prognostications on the economy and politics, and while not a great fan of short-term forecasting, I thought I would lay out a few themes that will condition markets and economies into 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;I wouldn’t start from here.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial markets – which are dominated by US equities (over 65% of world market cap), are starting 2025 from a vertiginous place.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Retail investor surveys have never been so optimistic, stock market concentration is at levels last seen in 1929 (the top ten stocks account for 40% of the market) and valuations are stratospheric (a simple measure, the price to earnings ratio, has only been higher in 2020 and 2001). In that respect, many investors might pose the question ‘when is the crash?’. My sense is that absent a damaging trade and supply chain war between the US and China in Q1, we will likely see a very meaningful rotation from US equities to cheaper markets in parts of Asia, but more so Europe (the election of Friedrich Merz as German Chancellor in late February might be the catalyst for this).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;The Plaza Problem&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A further reason for this is the strength of the dollar, which makes foreign assets cheaper for US investors. Following the election of Donald Trump, a range of key currencies have weakened noticeably – the yen, Brazil’s real, the Indian rupee, renminbi and the euro. Whilst the new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will see the benefits of a strong dollar, the weakness of ‘foreign’ currencies is anathema to the worldview of Donal Trump, who dreams of another Plaza Accord (a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’) that might reset the competitiveness of the dollar.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The problem with this view, as we head into 2025, is that the weakness of Asian currencies and the euro, relative to the dollar, is driven largely by diverging economic performance. In that context, a Trump administration that runs the economy ‘hot’ risks postponing a grand currency accord. It also risks a resurgence in inflation (and bond yields), which I suspect will be a story for next summer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;China – Japan or Greece?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The one factor that could temper inflation is China, a very large political economy that we know increasingly less about. My bet is that commentators will spend much of 2025 debating whether China is ‘Japan’ or ‘Greece’, in the sense of how the deleveraging of its economy materialises. China will become the risk factor for 2025 – economically, geopolitically and commercially in the way it will respond to the onset of tariffs from Washington.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite a recent, aggressive financial stimulus, the Chinese economy is gripped by deflation – in house prices, activity and a fall in entrepreneurial activity. Underlying this is a generalized demand problem.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This year’s plenum on economic policy has not done much to repair the structural creaking of the economy and the worry is that internal ‘reform’ (i.e. a political crackdown) further saps the willingness of entrepreneurs to invest, and equally that Xi is shaping China in the form of a more closed state, that curbs the will of those inside, adopts a singularly selfish approach to those outside, and relies on several great strides in technological industrialisation for the prolongation of the ‘China Dream’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The contradiction here, and specifically between the three strands to emerge from the plenum, is that in its policy making and economy China needs innovation but is creating a socio-political system that smothers it.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this respect, the third plenum and the recent liquidity boost missed a trick in not outlining a Keynesian style stimulus for the economy (or even longer-run structural one). The property market is slowing, entrepreneurs are very cautious, and the risks associated with local government debt are rising.&nbsp;While China has so far managed to duck a major recession, the government may have become too complacent about the deleveraging process, and the possibility that this accelerates downwards, dramatically so as was the case for Greece, or tortuously as was the case for Japan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Bond markets – suffering the hangover from elections&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As China slows, the key variable to watch is the Chinese long bond yield, which has been compressing lower in recent months as investors take a dim view of the economy. Elsewhere, there should be plenty of action across bond markets, driven by the fiscal aftershock of elections across the world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We still have a general election in Japan and the prospect of an election in Germany next February (23rd). In the cases of the US, UK and France, elections have seen bond yields rise in the context of near record indebtedness and very large deficits.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that respect, the fiscal hangover begins. Governments across regions will find themselves reined in by bond markets and under pressure to curb spending and in some cases to raise taxes. This pressure alone may eventually tilt economic policy more towards supply side changes, and also change the kinds of issues that politicians focus on such as immigration and identity politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Fiscal rectitude may only come to reign after a few bond market tantrums. There are two countries in particular worth watching – France and the US. First, the French budget process has been very drawn out, and with France having to cut its deficit in half over the next three years, it is unlikely that France’s political class, not to mention its public, are ready for deeper austerity. In that way, higher French bond yields will be a fixture in markets and might periodically push much higher.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The other market to watch is the US bond market, which in 2025 may become the limiting factor for equity and other riskier assets. Since the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, bond yields have risen and remain stubbornly high. With growth in the US economy strong, and other economies steadying, the risk factor is that inflation rises (though lower oil prices and deflation from China can offset this), driving bond yields higher, or that the desire of the Trump administration to run the economy ‘hot’ provokes a rise in yields. In this sense, the bond market may become Trump’s nemesis. The market reaction to this week’s Fed meeting is a sign of things to come.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This post is a little longer than normal and am now going to ‘down pens’ till you hear from me again on January 12th, when I will focus on some of the risks and potential surprises for 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a lovely Christmas and a very prosperous new year,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

2025 - The Hangover

&lt;p&gt;The New Year is an ideal time to establish healthy money habits and to put yourself on a sound financial path.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning&lt;/strong&gt; sets out some simple financial planning tips to get your finances into shape so you can spend more time enjoying the things you love and less time worrying about your money.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Think about your life &amp; financial goals&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Write down your short-term, medium term and long-term life goals along with a timeline for achieving them. Do these goals require financial funding? We often think about when we hope to retire and what that might look like however, along the way there are likely to be other life events and goals you would like to work towards.&nbsp;This could include clearing your mortgage in a particular timeframe or saving for your children’s education.&nbsp;Focusing on your financial goals will help you build a financial plan and with a plan you have a better chance of success!&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Create a budget &amp; track your spending&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 50-30-20 rule is a good place to start: a budgeting approach that allocates&nbsp;50% of your income to needs, 30% to wants, and 20% to savings. You can build your wealth while prioritising spending on things that matter to you. With a better understanding of where your money is going often comes the availability of extra disposable income, allowing you to invest the money or use it in other ways to improve your financial wellbeing.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Effectively use any surplus cash&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once you have a handle on your personal finances, consider how you can make your money work for you and invest to achieve your goals. If you already have a pension in place, are you making the most of it? A work-based pension is effectively free money from your employer and your pension fund continues to provide a tax efficient way to save for your future.&nbsp;Think about using any surplus cash to increase your AVCs. The maximum contribution &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/are-you-maximising-your-pension-contributions&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;on which you can receive income tax relief is determined by your age.&lt;/a&gt; Every extra €100 that you save to your pension is costing you as little as €60* once tax relief is considered. What about your savings? The bulk of savings in Ireland lies in low-yielding easy-to-access bank accounts. It may be time to consider building an investment portfolio that can grow that pot.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Empower yourself&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Understanding your finances is empowering and drives sound choices when it comes to making big financial decisions such as moving house or investing in a holiday home. We aren’t taught about personal finances in school. Most of us learn about money when we start dealing with bills and mortgages. A good place to start is to read the business pages at the weekend or check out a good finance podcast. Key to this however is a good relationship with your financial adviser, someone in your corner who you can ask questions and who understands your needs and goals. They will be able to explain why they’re making certain decisions with your money and how this affects you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;5.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Seek advice&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My final tip is to seek expert “advice”. Generally, people who work with a quality financial planning professional enjoy more financial confidence and experience less financial stress. An adviser works with you to help determine exactly what your financial goals are, talks you through your options and provides a personalised financial plan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The right adviser will help coordinate all aspects of your financial life so you can focus on what’s most important to you and your family.&nbsp;It’s an ongoing relationship built on trust and, if done correctly, your adviser will become an integral part of your life, your counsel for financial decisions. You can take comfort knowing that they will have the time, attention, and expertise to address every aspect of your finances while you focus on living.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This plan is your financial blueprint for life, it’s a living thing and we see its creation and ongoing assessment as a significant responsibility. Expert guidance will help steer you in the right direction. Life can throw curve balls and revisiting and updating your plan is paramount to its success.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;*This figure is based on marginal tax relief of 40%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At&nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Wealth Management&lt;/strong&gt;, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your&nbsp;Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/1ecefqpb45/vqdcidiuenj1wctetzt8n4/external?email=true&amp;a=6&amp;p=64910325&amp;t=33457561__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nfZp5_J4dNquUJWjgK06GKZUAVcTx3BtsZ-MUVNXTr8w1_uqlPWliA8FxUcAxkdQ6PRrdSgbD-BUj0Mcdw$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Get Your Finances in Shape for 2025 and Beyond.

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A few weeks ago, it would have been inconceivable to most foreign policy experts that Israeli aircraft could bomb Syria at will with their tanks apparently in shooting distance of Damascus, all the while a new Islamist regime installed itself there. This latest turn in the topsy turvy geopolitical world gives a glimpse of some of the regime shifts to come and the fragility of erstwhile brutal, long lasting dictatorships.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I absorbed the implications of the event in Abu Dhabi, which in terms of its success and trajectory, underlines the view of some that there are ‘two middle easts’.&nbsp;At the same time, Abu Dhabi has risen to a point of influence that it will be the lodestar in building the economic structure of the region once a viable peace plan for Israel/Palestine has been found.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The surprise departure of Bashir al-Assad will likely accelerate the reordering of the region and give food for thought to other ‘strongmen’. It may eventually be that a gang of them ends up living out of the Ritz Carlton in Moscow.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Indeed, &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/688225__;!!O22_8FOSssc!ms1jRbEU0XGArti1murXZun3TGrhUF5t3F-s8dKZGzUaJx71NxVWh1ZA98XMpVNjyf_60szb_fjLLilbq0uiCUF8$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;a couple of academics&lt;/a&gt; have tracked the flight of deposed dictators and state that&nbsp;‘&lt;em&gt;we find that dictators are more likely to go into exile in states that are close neighbors, have hosted other dictators in the past, are militarily powerful, and possess colonial links, formal alliances, and economic ties. By contrast, fleeing dictators tend to avoid democratic states and countries experiencing civil conflict’&lt;/em&gt;. More specifically, in Europe the top three destinations for dictators are Russia, the UK and France!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Despite Assad’s fall, Syria itself is not out of the woods – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham may be media sensitive, but they are also deadly, conservative Islamists. They have manifestly been given a firm helping hand by Turkey, which is re-establishing itself as a regional power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Turkish foreign policy is an enigma, wrapped in a mystery. In the past I have written how, in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, many countries in north Africa wanted to follow the ‘Turkish model’ of development. Since then, Recep Erdogan has enfeebled the country’s institutions and its economic backbone and has turned a foreign policy that used to be based on ‘no trouble with neigbours’ to one of ‘trouble with neighbours’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;However, Erodgan is a key player now – especially in terms of how he negotiates Russia’s military withdrawal. There remain many open questions, notably how the fall of Syria further weakens Iran and what implications this has for Iraq. Larger regional countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia will welcome the toppling of Assad and the further undermining of Iran, but now have to face up to the prospect of a regional peace deal where the strength of their support for Palestine will be tested.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If in 2025 a peace deal is struck that keeps in place the two-state formula, then the prospect of a regional economic recovery, led by the UAE (or Abu Dubai as some call it), may not be far off.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Visits to ministries, financial institutions (including Abu Dhabi Finance Week) and infrastructure players, with Prof. Afshin Molavi and several other economists and writers, gave a sense of the ambition of the region.&nbsp;In particular compared to previous visits to the region, two things stood out as ‘new developments’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is a growing sense of independence on the part of the UAE to go its own way in terms of how it makes policy (as opposed to being a policy taker from the US and the EU). This is evident in finance, infrastructure, labour markets and trade. On trade specifically, the UAE has to be geopolitically ambidextrous in how it builds relationships with the US and China, though when it comes to technology, the sense is that it is very much plugged into America.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second element worth commenting on is the idea of ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Working-with-Gulf-states-India-can-build-a-new-center-of-power__;!!O22_8FOSssc!ms1jRbEU0XGArti1murXZun3TGrhUF5t3F-s8dKZGzUaJx71NxVWh1ZA98XMpVNjyf_60szb_fjLLilbq7WGtinb$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Fourth Pole’&lt;/a&gt;. I have written on this in the last year, and the idea is that in a multipolar world made up of three ‘poles’ (US, EU and China) there is room for a fourth pole made up of India, the Gulf States and other players across the ‘region’ (which we could define as those countries&nbsp;a&nbsp;five hours&nbsp;flight&nbsp;away from the&nbsp;UAE,&nbsp;which includes some 2.4 billion people across Asia, Africa, Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The notion of the ‘Fourth Pole’ is gathering pace around the very close relationship between the UAE and India (the very popular Hindu Temple in Abu Dhabi is just one sign), and the web of trade, finance and infrastructure deals they are engaging in across the region. This relationship may not ultimately become as deep as that of the EU countries, but it is beginning to look like a modern version of the ‘Coal and Steel’ community. The risk however, is that they overbuild capacity in the face of a forthcoming economic shock or recession.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a final word, the best indication that I had that the UAE is feeling both confident and more independent is that some&nbsp;well-connected government advisors&nbsp;have come up with an acronym for the west – W.E.N.A (Western Europe and North America)!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

W.E.N.A

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio View for the week beginning December 9th, our weekly investments brief covering global markets and macro news.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Several major events impacted financial markets last week.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The French government collapse tested bond markets, and attempts to enforce martial law in South Korea were rejected.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The week concluded with the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's government.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-This week, watch for US inflation data on the 11th (current rate at 2.6%) and the ECB’s interest rate decision on the 12th (expected cut of at least 25bps from 3.4%).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-In stock news, Oracle Corp’s Q2 earnings release is today (YTD stock rise of 84.2%). Look out for Microsoft’s AGM tomorrow and Adobe’s Q4 earnings on the 11th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our full brief below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/Kg_tNjtMYdM?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: https://unio.ie/lets-talk.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 9th December 2024

&lt;p&gt;Monday morning started with an early sprint from Baker St to Marylebone train station in London, passing close to 221b Baker St, the fabled home of Sherlock Holmes. However, Holmes was not on my mind, but rather his nemesis, Professor James Moriarty.&nbsp;I was on my way to a seminar on the future of crime (especially as it concerned robots and social robots) organized by the excellent team at UCL’s Dawes Centre for Future Crime.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The rumour is that Conan Doyle based the character of Moriarty on George Boole, Professor of Maths at University College Cork from 1849 until 1864 (disappointingly his former home on Grenville Place is in a state of dereliction). Boole, one of the great mathematicians, created Boolean algebra which laid the foundations for computer language and is this the structure around which scientists use machines to mimic and ‘improve’ on human behaviour. To that end, Moriarty and the idea of the ‘future of crime’ should be of all the more interest to us in an AI driven world.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whilst many serious crimes are in abeyance – murder rates in small open democracies (Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Ireland for instance) are very low, and those in the large EU economies – France, Germany, the UK and Italy trend below 1 per 100,000 (the USA is seven times higher), new forms of crime are on the rise, many of them driven by technology. Mobile phones and social media have become an entirely new vector for crime in terms of the theft of passwords, online bank details, identity theft and the harassment and abuse of people online. Similarly, crypto currencies are the conduit for much criminal activity, and it is believed that confiscations have made the FBI the biggest holder of bitcoin. In addition, the metaverse has opened up an entirely new legal space, where injuries and attacks carried out in an apparently unreal world can have consequences in the real world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, the issue at stake at the Dawe’s Centre seminar was whether socially intelligent robots can create new forms of crime, that are not yet covered by legal frameworks and for which countermeasures have not been conceived.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is a terrifying prospect – robots could not only be primed to deliver drugs or explosives but imagine the consequences of robot bodyguards and guard-dogs who take it upon themselves to attack specific targets. In many cases, the prosecution of an assault by a robot would likely follow the logic of charging the owner of a dog (Britain’s Princess Anne was famously prosecuted when her pitbull ‘Dotty’, bit two children). On a more mundane basis, robots increasingly interact with vulnerable humans – the lonely, the elderly and for instance autistic children, and while these interactions are very helpful, they also open up scope for abuse. In time the growing prevalence of sex robots will cause all sorts of controversies.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, in cases where the robot acts intelligently and autonomously, the law is not clear and frameworks on AI offer only meagre guidance. Robert Harris’ book ‘The Fear Index’ is a good illustration of what might occur when an intelligence ‘bot’ takes over a critical infrastructure, and the use of AI on the battlefield is chilling in its ruthlessness.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Heavy duty robots also permit the exploration, surveillance and protection of faraway places (the deep sea, space and remote parts of the earth) though at the same time they permit mischief by various actors such as attacks on critical marine infrastructure.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It may well be that, as in the case of driverless cars, socially intelligent robots are less dangerous than humans, though the notion itself of criminal robots is cause for concern. For the time being, many of the impetuses to the ‘future of crime’ are human factors. Some of them relate to changes in wealth – such as the rise of powerful oligarchs, and a rich ultra-high net worth class of people who on one hand are targets for crime and on the other hand have the means to dominate others and push their own visions of what society should look like. We may see more of this type of behaviour in coming years.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then, we really get into ‘Moriarty’ territory when states begin to collaborate with individuals and gangs, as is the case with Russia for instance. States have access to intelligent and often lethal robots and can enable organized criminals to use them – it is not impossible that gangs might start to use drones in contract killings. The other, related area that is increasingly relevant here is corporate intelligence and security (Lewis Sage-Passant’s book on this topic is very good) where many corporate security teams have to combat hacking and other attacks by robots, from criminal gangs, and as was sadly demonstrated in New York last week, assassins.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If Moriarty existed today, and perhaps he does, corporates as well as governments might be his preferred targets, and he would very likely equip himself with robotic henchmen (and women) who could subvert the human world.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The question is, what would Sherlock do?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Moriarty

&lt;p&gt;Mike O'Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio Wealth Management writes about how the investment landscape is profoundly influenced by global and local politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In today’s interconnected world, the investment landscape is profoundly influenced by both global and local politics. From international trade agreements and diplomatic relations to regional conflicts and political stability, these factors play a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment and market dynamics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, understanding this interplay is crucial for navigating the complexities of financial markets and helping our clients maximise their financial lives and potential futures.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland is interesting in that it continues to be a very open economy – exposed to global forces, but that has so far proven its resilience. We are a democratic outlier. Unlike so many other countries in this ‘year of elections’ there will be fundamentally little change in the governance of the state. At the time of writing, it looks like Fine Gael and Fianna Fail will continue in power, supported either by Labour or a more disparate group of independents. Amidst low turnout, the other trend is the evolution of the political system in terms of a block of four or more parties on the left, and a relatively high number of independents. If Ireland demonstrates an outward form of stability, the world around it is changing in a way not seen since the early 1990′s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Political debate in Europe is dominated by issues that have made no imprint on the election campaign in Ireland – defence and security with a focus on the threat to Europe from Russia, and increasingly the role of China as a bad actor, the need to boost investment in ‘strategic autonomy’ sectors (from AI to quantum to defence ‘deep’ tech). Then, the really significant change is the more mercantilist stance that America will take to the rest of the world, and the risks to the rules based international system that has been cultivated by so many American presidents. In this respect, like many other countries Ireland risks a diplomatic crash. By this I mean that a host of countries have invested diplomatically, or in terms of soft power, in institutions, partnerships and causes. The acceleration of a multipolar world by the second Trump presidency will crash the value of many of these diplomatic investments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An example might be the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and the US, and indeed the close relationship between Ireland and the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;More broadly Ireland has, correctly, invested heavily in the UN and the rules-based order. Some of the pillars of this order, like the World Trade Organisation – effectively built by an Irishman (Peter Sutherland) – are in a state of dereliction. It may well be the case that the UN ceases to be effective in dispute resolution between states, world health policy and great power coordination.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, together with Spain and Norway, Ireland has spent significant geopolitical capital supporting Palestine (all three countries recognised Palestine as a state). Here, it cannot be ruled out that a grand peace deal is made in the Middle East, between Israel, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, whose goal is to create greater investment and commercial flows between these countries and strategically disable Iran, but whose outcome is to render the ‘two-state’ solution unachievable. This new, harsh reality would leave the humanitarian-led foreign policies of many European countries well ‘off-side’, compared to the stance of the Trump administration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Economically, the great challenge will come from the spill-over effects of the Trump administration. His key proposed appointments – notably Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio as Treasury Secretary and Secretary of State, would not be out of place in any of the Republican administrations of the past fifty years, and Bessent in particular has a large stock of credibility on Wall Street and the wider economics community. His personal view of tariffs is that they are a negotiating tactic, best deployed to shape trading and financial relations with other countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While there is great concern over the potential impact of tariffs on Ireland, there may be two reasons to be less pessimistic. First, the Trump administration will cause enormous macroeconomic and diplomatic volatility if it imposes tariffs on allies and competitors at the same time. If his ultimate objective is to disable China as an economic power, he may well need to have allied economies like South Korea, Japan and the EU onside. Second, in many cases, American multinationals are deeply embedded in the Irish economy, which makes a retracement of foreign direct investment difficult. Still, the inevitable tariff negotiation between the EU and the US will entail close solidarity between EU nations, and its implications could well extend to the forthcoming debate on EU defence spending (an EU missile defence shield will cost up to Eur 500bn).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The understated risk to the rest of the world of the Trump economic policy package is that the White House tries to run the economy ‘hot’, and in turn this produces another phase of inflation, and rising interest rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then in terms of domestic fiscal policy, the central concern must be the effectiveness of state spending. While optically, Ireland has a strong fiscal position, it in effect has large unfunded liabilities to meet in terms of bringing its defence infrastructure up to the level of peer states like Denmark and Norway, and in terms of the long-term capital required to offset the impact of climate change on land and infrastructure (flooding in Spain is a reminder). Alongside this is the need to better fund universities and create centres of excellence in research.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It could be hoped that the fiscal debate will shift from the quantum of money that the government needs to deploy on infrastructure and housing, to the method by which these assets are built. If Ireland is richer (per capita) than most of its European peers, it lacks institutionalised know-how in infrastructure – from building apartments like the Austrians, to railways like the French and hospitals like the Swiss. In that respect, the post-election period offers a chance to stop and take stock of what has been done on infrastructure so far and seek the expertise of other EU countries for what needs to be built for the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An important element here is investment, and in time the State will need to think about how to better deploy Irish pension capital in infrastructure, agriculture and homegrown technology firms. Alongside this is the need to build investment infrastructure in the sense of cautiously opening up access to education and portfolio platforms so that households can build long-term investments, a topic that is naturally close to Unio. We flag that there is growing momentum in a ‘savings and investment’ union in Europe, and Ireland should be at the forefront of this. As we head into 2025, Ireland is an oasis of political stability in a chaotic world. It should use this opportunity to build the capabilities it will need in this fast-changing environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we help high earners achieve their full financial potential. Using our proprietary wealth planning framework we work with our clients to plan their future and importantly, how to fund it. If you would like to speak to a Unio Wealth Management adviser, visit &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Let's Talk | Unio Wealth Management&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishtimes.com/advertising-feature/2024/12/06/ireland-an-outlier-in-a-turbulent-world/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This article appeared in The Irish Times, December 6th, 2024.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Irish Times: Ireland, an outlier in a turbulent world?

&lt;p&gt;3 Mins Read&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stephen McEntee, private client adviser, Unio Wealth Management's Wealth &amp; Family Office, writes about the risks and strategies associated with investing post-retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Investing post-retirement&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once you have made the transition to retirement and key considerations such as your income requirements and lifestyle needs have been explored in detail; the focus quickly moves to how and where your accumulated pension funds should be invested.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are clearly risks when you are funding a pension, in the ‘fund accumulation’ stage. There are also risks when you move to retirement, or the ‘decumulation’ stage, but they are very different.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sequence of Returns Risk is the risk that the timing of market returns impact retirement savings. For retirees, a market downturn early in retirement can deplete a portfolio faster than expected, even with strong long-term returns. This article explains why this risk matters and offers strategies to protect your retirement income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Risks with Retirement Income &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The risks specific to you as a post-retirement investor should be reflected in the investment portfolio within your post-retirement pension fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, when you are making regular withdrawals from an investment – as you will be doing in retirement – your selected investment portfolio should be constructed with Sequencing Risk in mind. Sequencing Risk is created by the sequence in which investment returns are generated, and the timing of withdrawals from the fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Understanding Sequence of Returns Risk&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To understand the effect of sequence of investment returns, consider the below two scenarios of five-year market returns:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;table border=&quot;0&quot; style=&quot;width: 690pt;&quot; width=&quot;920&quot;&gt;
 &lt;tbody&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Scenario A Returns&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Scenario B Returns&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;Year 1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;25%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;-20%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Year 2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;15%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;-5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;-5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;15%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;-20%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;25%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
 &lt;/tbody&gt;
&lt;/table&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The returns are identical in both the above scenarios, but in reverse order. In a ‘decumulating’ fund where you are making withdrawals, the order of the returns makes a significant impact on the value at the end of the five-year period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Scenario A, €100,000 invested with €10,000 withdrawals each year would leave residual capital value of €70,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Scenario B, the same investment amount and withdrawals would leave a residual capital value of €47,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, if you experience a poor initial sequence of returns immediately after retirement and make withdrawals during this period (as you may be obliged to do in a post-retirement pension); you effectively crystallise some losses. This can be difficult to recover from as you will continue to make withdrawals each year in retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Mitigating Risk &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are several strategies that can be employed to manage portfolios more effectively and reduce the impact of market downturns on retirement income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An important tool in trying to reduce the fund volatility you experience is to invest in a wide range of assets, known as diversification. Your portfolio should benefit from an appropriate level of diversification, both across assets classes, like shares, property and bonds, and within each asset class. You can also diversify geographically and across industries, and between different fund managers – reducing the risk of overreliance on any one fund manager.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another common strategy for post-retirement clients is to invest in a portfolio with a clear focus on income producing assets. In general terms, income paying assets tend to be more stable than the average when markets are volatile. In addition to this, the ability to take some or all your pension withdrawals from income generated within the fund means that the investments themselves are left mainly intact. This allows you to minimise the degree to which you crystallise losses when the fund falls in any particular year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Finally, when considering a fund on which you are somewhat dependent on for income in retirement, inflation risk should also be considered.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Investing your post-retirement fund in cash, or extremely low risk portfolios, reduces investment and sequencing risk, but increases the risk that the income you can expect from the fund will be worth less and less throughout your retirement in real terms.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This highlights the fundamental challenge to a post-retirement investor: no single type of risk should take precedent or be considered in isolation. Instead, all relevant risks should be considered in a balanced manner, and your expectations regarding your investment portfolio should involve not just an expected return over the long term, but also a good understanding of what your investor experience is likely to be over that period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stephen McEntee is a private client adviser in Unio Wealth Management's Wealth &amp; Family Office. Stephen &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Stephen%20McEntee&amp;segment=Independent%20Wealth%20and%20Family%20Office&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At &lt;strong&gt;Unio Wealth Management&lt;/strong&gt;, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your&nbsp;Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/1ecefqpb45/vqdcidiuenj1wctetzt8n4/external?email=true&amp;a=6&amp;p=64910325&amp;t=33457561__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nfZp5_J4dNquUJWjgK06GKZUAVcTx3BtsZ-MUVNXTr8w1_uqlPWliA8FxUcAxkdQ6PRrdSgbD-BUj0Mcdw$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Preparing for Retirement

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning December 2nd, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch our brief in full:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/w1fm_aPXbH0?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Global equities had a mixed week, overall down -0.3%. Global bond yields fell across the board, led by the US with the 10-year Treasury dropping -0.23% to 4.19%&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Oil and gold prices dropped by 4.8% and 1.7% last week thanks to tensions easing in the Middle East.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Eurozone inflation rose to 2.3% in November, exceeding the target rate for first time in three months.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- In earnings news, companies reporting this week include: Salesforce, Marvell Technologies and, the Royal Bank of Canada.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 2nd December 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;US stock market valuations have only been as high as in 2001 and 2020, market concentration is more extreme than in the late 1920’s (the top ten companies now make up 38% of the market capitalization of the S&amp;P 500 index), and money manager surveys show US households to be the most bullish on future returns from equities since the survey began in the early 1980’s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;So, given this precarious euphoria, when is the crash?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My response is that crashes come in unexpected places and times and, one idea that has not had much coverage but that might become current is the idea of a ‘diplomatic crash’. By this I mean that a host of countries have invested diplomatically, or in terms of soft power, in institutions, partnerships and causes. The acceleration of a multipolar world by the second Trump presidency will crash the value of many of these diplomatic investments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;An example might be the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and the US, the seeds of which were sown by Roosevelt and Churchill during the second world war (Churchill coined the term in 1946), and later cultivated by Thatcher/Reagan and then the Bushes and Clintons with both John Major and Tony Blair. Today, it is very hard to see any personal chemistry, or philosophical common ground between Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer. If the ‘special relationship’ were a stock or even a crypto coin, its value would be at a historic low.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In more detail, the idea of the ‘diplomacy crash’ came to me the night before I voted in Ireland’s general election. Ireland is a very quirky, even eccentric country from a geopolitical view in that unlike many other European countries there is close to no debate in Irish politics on defence and security, and its defence capability is miniscule compared to benchmark countries like Norway and Sweden.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context Ireland, like many other mid-ranking developed countries, is about to suffer a diplomatic crash. It has, correctly, invested heavily in the UN and the rules-based order. Some of the pillars of this order, like the World Trade Organisation – effectively built by an Irishman (Peter Sutherland) – are in a state of dereliction. It may well be the case that the UN ceases to be effective in dispute resolution between states, world health policy and great power coordination.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In addition, together with Spain and Norway, Ireland has spent significant geopolitical capital supporting Palestine (all three countries recently recognized Palestine as a state). Here, it cannot be ruled out that a grand peace deal is made in the Middle East, between Israel, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, whose goal is to create greater investment and commercial flows between these countries and strategically disable Iran, but whose outcome is to render the ‘two-state’ solution unachievable. This new, harsh reality would leave the humanitarian led foreign policies of many European countries well ‘off-side’, compared to the stance of the Trump administration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ireland is just an example here, and there are plenty of other crashes in diplomatic capital – Germany’s trade policy with China, and potentially Japan’s relationship with the USA, France’s relationship with Africa and in general the cultivation of the rules-based order by democracies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In finance, when a market crash occurs, investors become structurally risk averse, run for safe assets and generally retract positions. This might be the same in diplomacy. The risk then is a more unsure, less engaged diplomatic world, and worryingly one where the international rule of law is ignored.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In Europe, reflecting the lessons of the euro-zone financial crisis, this may imply that EU foreign policy becomes more consistent across countries (though perhaps not yet unified) and more focused (Katja Kallas is perhaps the most forceful foreign policy chief that the EU has had). In addition, new policy coalitions and leadership groups will form, notably so in the case of the Nordic and Baltic states on defence and immigration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The EU also needs to stop geopolitical hedging by its members. Hungary under Viktor Orban has become notoriously close to Russia, and whilst Serbia had tried to play both sides it seems more comfortable as a bona fide EU nation (it is an accession state).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Once Ireland’s election result is clear, the first task for its leaders may be to choose sides – solidarity with Europe and active participation in the EU defence effort,&nbsp;or a singular, eccentric relationship with the Trump administration.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week, Mike.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Diplomacy Crash

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning November 25th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch our brief in full:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/1bffdIRXyic?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• It was a strong week for equities, supported in part by Nvidia's robust earnings. Nvidia continues to deliver with revenue up 94% from a year ago to $35.1bn.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• As earnings season wraps up, notable companies reporting this week include Zoom Technologies, Dell Technologies, and Workday Inc.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Zoom's stock has risen 24.1% this year, Dell's stock is up 92.8% YTD due to the AI transition, while Workday’s stock remains flat on the back of lower revenue forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Key macro events to watch this week are the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, the second estimate of US Q3 GDP, and Eurozone inflation data.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 25th November, 2024

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Act Now on Your Year End Company Pension Contribution&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The recent budget and Finance Act introduced changes to Personal Retirement Savings Accounts (PRSAs), including a cap on company contributions starting in 2025.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Until the end of 2024, employers can contribute unlimited amounts to an employee's PRSA. This is a great opportunity for businesses to make significant pension contributions without needing to increase taxable salaries.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, from January 2025, contributions will be limited to 100% of the employee's earnings.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Please get in touch to see how we can help you make the most of this opportunity before the window closes.&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Changes to PRSAs&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This year’s budget and subsequent Finance Act presented changes for PRSAs and re-introduces a limit on company paid PRSA contributions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Until the end of 2024, there is no limit to the amount an employer can contribute to a PRSA for a company director or other employee.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Traditionally, a large pension contribution would mean the need for an individual to also have a large salary or an extensive employment period.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Currently, a business can contribute significantly to an employee’s pension fund without the need for the individual to draw a higher taxable salary or have long company service.&nbsp;&nbsp;When funding via a PRSA, the only real limitation currently is the tax efficient Standard Fund Threshold (SFT) limit of €2M.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From 1st January 2025, this will change, and employer contributions to PRSAs will be limited to 100% of the employee’s earnings.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The table below outlines some of the features of a PRSA and why it is currently such an attractive funding option.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCQMWZGFO3OZFBLO3LINDW5L6NFE?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Act Now on Your Year End Company Pension Contribution&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fy73&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCQMWZGFO3OZFBLO3LINDW5L6NFE&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Act Now on Your Year End Company Pension Contribution.JPG&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Funding for Spouses&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the case of spouses working in the same business, many companies fund only one pension for a couple.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are many advantages for putting two separate pensions in place – one for each spouse.&nbsp;This is particularly advantageous where the couples pension funds will exceed €800,000. Funding individually, rather than a couple, will provide the opportunity for each spouse to take a tax-free pension lump sum.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Important Changes to PRSA Contributions

&lt;p&gt;3 Mins Read&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;David Moran, Director, Independent Wealth &amp; Family Office, writes about the significant wealth transfer which will define the coming decades. The article discusses how high-net-worth individuals can protect and grow their wealth through diversified investments, tax efficiencies, and legacy planning. It also highlights the importance of navigating family dynamics and understanding differing goals across generations.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It will likely be no surprise to read that a significant transfer of wealth is underway in Ireland and beyond.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Across the developed world, the coming years will see trillions’ worth of investment and housing wealth move, primarily from the baby boomer generation to their children. This transfer of family wealth between generations will be a defining trend for the decades ahead. So, as a client seeking advice in passing on wealth efficiently, how might you begin that conversation with your adviser?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Wealth in Ireland&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Ireland, wealth has grown significantly over recent decades driven by economic development a thriving-tech sector, and a rising property market. Ireland is the 20th wealthiest country in the world, with an average wealth per capita of €250,000. Switzerland tops the list at €710,000 per capita.1&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Wealth as a Legacy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many high-net worth individuals and families focus on protecting their assets through diversified investments, tax efficiencies and legacy planning to secure wealth for future generations.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When it comes to advising a client, early meetings are primarily about building trust, recognising that wealth for some individuals represents not just financial success but a legacy with personal, emotional, and generational dimensions.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Navigating Family Dynamics&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sensitivity to these dynamics is critical; wealth serves as a foundation for opportunities, but it can also be a source of complexity, with differing goals across family members, particularly when it comes to more sensitive areas of discussion such as the provision of long-term care, Enduring Power of Attorney and, legacy giving need to be explored.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Different generations for example may have completely different views as to how assets should be invested. A younger family member may wish to invest to grow the assets, while the older generation might place more emphasis on protecting the wealth they have spent a lifetime accumulating.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Increasingly, younger investors are becoming more conscious of ESG investment screening – a means of measuring the Environmental and Social impact of the investment of their assets. Consequently, the plan for the transfer of assets itself will sometimes involve an associated restructuring of an investment portfolio to reflect a stronger focus on ESG investments, for example exposure to renewable energy, or simply equities within dedicated ESG investment funds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Preferences as to how to engage with financial planning or investment advice can often vary also. At the risk of generalisation, younger clients may place more emphasis on being able to access advice and information online or through other digital channels; while older clients may prefer a more traditional, face-to-face relationship with their advisers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Strategy with Empathy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, as a client seeking advice in passing on wealth efficiently, how might you begin the conversation?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Firstly, take the time to fully understand and document your own priorities. Do you simply want to pass wealth to the next generation tax-efficiently? Perhaps you have other philanthropic goals? Have you taken the time to understand your own needs in retirement before prioritising others? This may involve the support of one or more professional advisers, be that a tax or financial planning professional.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Secondly, introduce the other parties involved in the wealth transfer to your advisers and involve them in the conversation. This step might initially be as simple as providing them with a current statement of affairs including a list of your own advisers.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;No two families are the same. When it comes to your plan to pass on wealth, your circumstances should be reflected in an approach that is nuanced and appropriate to you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;David Moran is a Director in Unio's Independent Wealth &amp; Family Office. David &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=David%20Moran&amp;segment=Independent%20Wealth%20and%20Family%20Office&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;References:&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. Global Wealth Report 2024, UBS&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Protecting and Growing Family Wealth

&lt;p&gt;John F Kennedy is famous for many things, but a lesser-known accomplishment is that he won a Pulitzer Prize for a bestselling book entitled ‘Profiles in Courage’ that told the stories of eight American political figures (mostly senators if I recall) who took morally courageous stands on issues that went against the views of their parties and popular opinion. An example was John Quincy Adams’ decision to break from the Federalist Party (over foreign policy).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Like all things Kennedy, the book was a dazzling success, but also had a few magical ingredients. It is generally accepted that Ted Sorensen, adviser and speechwriter to Kennedy, contributed much of the book, or in his own terms, he wrote ‘many of the words in the sentences’. Equally, the book did not make it through the formal entry process for the Pulitzer, but was nudged into the competition by Joe Kennedy, the president’s father.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As an aside, in the context of the recent presidential election, it could well be argued that Joe Kennedy was a Trumpian figure…or that Trump is simply following the ‘Patriarch’s’ (David Nasaw’s book of this title is very good) example. Kennedy accomplished more as a businessman than Trump but fell short in his political career. Instead, he groomed Joe jnr (killed in the second world war), then John, Bobby and Ted.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of Joe senior’s achievements was his appointment as American ambassador to the UK, but his term was cut short for his perceived stance on appeasement. With some irony and independence, Joe snr had encouraged the publication of his son’s Harvard thesis as a book. ‘Why England Slept’ queried the ‘soft’ stance of the British government towards Germany and argued that if Britain had re-armed earlier, and taken a more robust stance with Germany, the second world war may not have happened, or at least might have taken a different path (the book was a great success and the British royalties were given to the city of Plymouth which had been badly bombed by the Luftwaffe).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Though Robert Kennedy junior may now take the ‘Kennedy’ limelight, the message of JFK’s books echoes with today’s world. In a couple of years’ time, someone might write ‘Why Europe Slept?’ in the sense that Europe has let its guard slip on security and not built defence infrastructure to keep up with the threat of Russia.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a week where a Chinese vessel is suspected of cutting a telecoms cable between Germany and Finland, when the first EU defence and space commissioner has been confirmed (Andrius Kubilius’ first task is to compile an inventory of Europe’s defence supply chains) and where the intercontinental ballistic missiles have been used on Ukraine, there is a sense that Europe is still not ready for the worst.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The idea of ‘profiles in courage’ is even more pertinent. In a multipolar world, where countries and companies have to ‘take sides’, where America arguably will become more transactional and less relationship driven in its foreign policy and, where democracy is being eroded from within and afar, moral courage will be at a premium.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One unfortunate example here is Olaf Scholz’ moral capitulation in calling Russia’s president last week, ostensibly to lay the groundwork for a peace deal. Scholz likely had the upcoming German elections in mind, but his call was rewarded with an intense bombardment of Kiev.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This has left Scholz even more discredited, and there is now a growing debate around his future as SPD leader and the prospect that he could be replaced by Boris Pistorius, the popular defence minister.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having Pistorius in place as Social Democrat leader by the time of the election might boost the party and would also make a coalition with the CDU easier to form and more ideologically consistent. As it stands, the polls show the CDU/CSU with some 32% of the vote, the SPD on 16%, AfD at 19% and Sara Wagenknecht’s party at 7%. At that rate the CDU-SPD coalition might need to take on a smaller partner, but in effect Merz would be the dominant partner.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A Merz-Pistorius lead coalition could be a real change for Germany, could reignite its economy and remake its energy policy, and may turn it into a more robust geopolitical player vis a vis Russia.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My advice is that they both read the works of John Kennedy.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week, Mike.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Profiles in Courage

&lt;p&gt;This month’s Global Macro Council focused on Trump's second term.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The tenor of that term is becoming clearer with the nomination of new cabinet members.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two major risks are emerging.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Firstly, the response to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could lead to supply chain disruptions and strained relations between the US, China, and Europe. Secondly, the Trump cabinet's policies might lead to higher inflation and rising bond yields, potentially causing a downturn in asset prices.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The policies of the Trump cabinet are expected to have varying impacts on different sectors. Increased energy production may help control inflation but could harm energy stocks. The financial sector could benefit from deregulation, while the approach to large technology firms remains uncertain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Unio-GMC-Outlook_November-2024_Trumps-Second-Try.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more in November’s Global Macro Council Outlook&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Trump - The Second Try

&lt;p&gt;In what has been a weeks of wall-to-wall election coverage, our webinar is a must-watch for anyone looking at the bigger picture.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What is the ripple effect of Trump's win?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hosted by Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions at Unio, in conversation with our guest speakers: Shanella Rajanayagam, Trade Economist at HSBC and Mike O'Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thank you to our speakers. You may watch the webinar in full below. &lt;em&gt;(32 minutes) &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/PZl4ele31KM?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The discussion focuses on several key areas:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Trade Policy: The heightened uncertainty in trade policies and the need for scenario planning due to Trump's unpredictable tariff policies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Geopolitical Risks: The significant geopolitical shifts that could either rejuvenate the American Empire or signify its decline.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Inflationary Effects: Trump's potential tariffs could lead to inflationary pressures in the US and globally.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Economic Impact: Studies suggest that US GDP could be negatively impacted by Trump's trade policies, with potential long-term effects on global GDP.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Impact on Europe: How Europe, particularly Ireland, may need to navigate the new trade dynamics and geopolitical risks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Environmental Policies: Trump's administration is likely to weaken international environmental agreements. However, this shift could create opportunities for entrepreneurs focused on environmental innovation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Investment Opportunities: Despite the risks, there may be investment opportunities, particularly in Europe, as markets adapt to the new geopolitical landscape.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A key takeaway is that while there may be some turbulence ahead, from an investment perspective, this should not be a cause for alarm. There will likely be positive opportunities over the next few years, which we must consider when positioning client portfolios. At Unio, we are committed to maintaining a long-term view and not reacting excessively to short-term fluctuations. This principle is consistently applied in our investment strategies.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Ripple Effect of the US Election

&lt;p&gt;If any readers travel to Singapore, I can recommend they visit the Botanic Gardens to sense the dawn break. A badly adjusted body clock brought on by jet lag meant that I found myself jogging around the Gardens at 5.30am on Monday and Tuesday mornings – uplifted by the sounds, smells and sights of this mini paradise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My few days in Singapore, principally to speak at the Founders Forum gathering, allowed me to gauge the Asian reaction to the prospect of a second, more menacing Trump term in office.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I did so armed with the memory of a May 2016 visit to Singapore where I had asked a gathering of some 300 people to compile a word cloud (using their mobiles) of thoughts and emotions they associated with Donald Trump. The result was harsh, and very few of the participants that day thought Trump would be elected as president in 2016, and just as few thought that Brexit would happen.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To my mind the event was emblematic of the certainty of the era of globalization, and the ways in which this was smashed by events like the first Trump presidency, Brexit and the smothering of Hong Kong’s open society.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Singapore is one of the most important places to observe these changes from – it is highly globalized (the DHL Connectedness Report highlights it as the most globalized country in the world), delicately balanced between the Chinese commercial and American worlds, and institutionally one of the strongest countries (though it is one tenth the size of County Cork, it has an active army nearly ten times the size of that of Ireland). As a leading ‘micro-power’ it has an even greater stock of soft power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, Singapore will acutely feel the rising tensions between China and America especially in terms of the technologies it uses, investment flows and diplomacy. For context, the soon to be secretary of state Marco Rubio has laid out the fault lines in the relationship between China and America in an interesting document entitled ‘The World China Made’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, several prominent politicians in Singapore such as prime minister Laurence Wong have declared the end of the ‘golden era of globalization’. My guess is that in the Trump era, Wong and colleagues will have to tread incredibly carefully diplomatically. Economically, it is clear that Singapore’s role as the wealth hub of Asia, or its ‘Geneva’ is gathering pace, and also obvious that its economy is benefitting from the growing prosperity in countries like Indonesia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are two other aspects of my visit that are worth stressing, less for what they say about Singapore but more for what they tell us about how the ‘West’ is perceived.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, with regard to Europe, in two separate meetings I was asked if I thought the euro would survive. This greatly surprised me as not only do I think the euro is a solid, though not yet perfectly formed currency, I have not been asked that question in Europe in nearly ten years. It suggests that Europe still has a reputational problem, or that at very least its ‘message’ is not reaching Asia. Conversely, it seems that there are too few Asian voices in the European media – connecting us to what is happening in cities like Singapore and Hong Kong.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second reflection, which also resonates across Europe, is that for the first time in at least a century, an American presidency is being launched that has a manifestly threatening and aggressive stance towards the rest of the world.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;America has historically been the builder of relationships, alliances and institutions (Pax Americana) and its (soft) power has been built on this. The tenor of the Trump cabinet is increasingly clear, and many of the appointees appear to have been selected on the basis that they did bad things in the past, or that they are prepared to do bad things to others in the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is the great unknown for the USA, that its new posture towards the rest of the world causes it to lose influence and friends.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Distance

&lt;p&gt;The Unio Weekly View for the week beginning November 11th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Check out our investment brief below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/ms2gW-OyItQ?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- The 'Trump Trade' greatly benefited equities and bitcoin last week as investors expect tax cuts and less corporate regulation from a second Trump presidency.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Global bond yields all fell last week as both the US and UK central banks continued their rate cutting cycle.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- US headline and core inflation data for October will be released on the 13th. The current headline and core rates stand at 2.4% and 3.3% respectively.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- On the 14th Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell, will speak in relation to the central bank’s decision to cut rates by a further 25bps. It’s also worth keeping an eye out for UK Q3 GDP on the 15th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Tencent, Walt Disney and Alibaba all report results this week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 11 November, 2024

&lt;p&gt;Donald Trump will be president of the United States for a second time, defying those who thought his first term was an anomaly and who considered that the American people still care about the rule of law. He will preside over the 250th anniversary of US independence, the next Olympics and World Cup.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is an election result of such great consequence that it will decide whether America’s hegemony is renewed, or that its empire fades like so many others have done through the ages. Fittingly, I woke up to the news of Trump’s victory in Vienna, a city that knows a thing or two about empires. In that context, an interesting and possibly underread book is ‘The Hapsburg Way – 7 rules for turbulent times’ by Eduard Habsburg, known formally as the Archduke of Austria and now a career diplomat for Hungary.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Of Habsburg’s seven rules, the most important are ‘Believe in the empire, and your subsidiarity’ and ‘Respect law and justice’. Trump will likely not do well on these counts, nor does he score on ‘Be Catholic’ though the Catholic church has chased his coattails through the electoral campaign. He does better on ‘Get married and have many children’ and ‘Be brave in battle’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The book is full of interesting snippets, such as that the first governor of Texas (in 1691) was installed by the (Spanish) Habsburgs. In that respect the only blemish in the book is the foreword, written by Habsburg’s boss Viktor Orban, who this week held court over his European counterparts in Budapest, in the wake of the Trump victory.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While I think that Trump will be much more disruptive for Asia and Europe, and that his presidency will see an unprecedented re-shaping of the Middle East, a great deal of media attention is devoted to his impact on Europe and NATO. Overall, the reaction is far too alarmist and the vision of world leaders cowering before Trump gives little acknowledgement of his and America’s vulnerabilities.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite this, with near comic timing, only hours after Trump’s victory was confirmed, the squabbling German government fell apart, a development that has been simmering for some time.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Germany will likely have an election next March, and this is good news. Scholz’ ineffective and indecisive government will be thrown out (Scholz may also be replaced by Boris Pistorius at the head of his party), and Germans will vote in a centre-right government, if polls are to be believed. There is very strong appetite on the part of German businesses to restart the economy, unblock planning laws and rethink energy policy. This much was very clear to me when speaking with investors and businesspeople in Hamburg (after Vienna).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If a new centre-right government transpires in Germany, this should re-engage the political engine at the heart of Europe between France and Germany. But there is a small chance that Emmanuel Macron will not be president of France in a year’s time. Macron, who this week compared Europe’s fate to ‘herbivore in a climate of carnivores’, is fantastically unpopular in France and it cannot be discounted that the Rassemblement will try to bring him down in 2025. Similarly, there is a risk that far-right parties in Europe are emboldened by the Trump victory.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Apart from the travails of the German and French leaders, there is a shift of power going on across Europe – in favour of Poland and Italy, and towards the Baltics/Nordics. The sense is that a Trump led US will bring about the end to the Pax Americana, which may initially leave Europe more vulnerable diplomatically, though ultimately it will become more independent (to America’s disadvantage). Arguably the loser here is the UK, stranded offside the EU, and at odds with Trump and his vice-president.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A Trumpian America, if true to the caricature, will leave Europe as the last bastion of democracy and independent institutions. This is a great challenge and one that most people are not ready for. In events I speak at, a trick question I pitch to the audience is to ask how many of them (usually accomplished, educated people) would enter politics – in most cases there are few volunteers. If European democracies are to be renewed, politics must re-civilise itself and to quote Eduard Habsburg, politics also needs more brave people.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another area to watch is institutions. Donald Trump already politicised the Supreme Court and might well do the same with the Federal Reserve. On Thursday the Fed, oddly in my view, cut rates, but the press conference after the meeting was dominated by Chair Powell denying that he would resign if Trump requested he do so. As America’s institutions may become more politicised, and world institutions like the UN and WTO become less relevant in a Trumpian world, Europe needs to ensure that the independence and competence of its institutions is pristine.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Returning to the topic of defence, perhaps the most interesting confirmation hearing (by the EU Parliament) of EU commissioners designate was that of Andrius Kubilius, the Lithuanian, first defence commissioner. His first task will be to deliver a paper (in 100 days from now) on the state of defence procurement, the integration of defence supply chains and the opportunities for a more intensive commitment to space technology. In his commentary, he revealed that a pan-European missile defence shield could cost up to Eur 500bn. So, we should brace ourselves for the issue of EU war bonds to pay for this.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To end this note with a very big picture view, in the context of the theme of the ‘Levelling’, Trump’s first victory was a wrecking ball to globalization. This second one shatters it completely and will try to remake America and the world order with a narrative and vision (‘tariffs’, ‘deportation’, ‘loyalty tests’) that will deglobalize. Politically, Trump has sold Americans a political vision based on the Leviathan (the people surrender their liberty to a singular leader in return for protection). Europe is still a ‘Leveller’ type system (bottom up democracies). Of the two approaches, I am with the Levellers.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Want to hear more? Join us at our next webinar:&nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Global Markets After the Vote – The Ripple Effect of the US Election. &lt;/strong&gt;This webinar is a must-attend for anyone looking at the bigger picture as an&nbsp;investor.&nbsp;We will cut through the noise to explore how&nbsp;Trump's victory could impact markets globally, with a focus on what it&nbsp;means for Ireland’s economy, local business, and individual investments.&nbsp;Join us on Wednesday,&nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;13th November at 11 am&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;to get valuable insights and stay prepared for whatever changes may come.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7474495881785115482&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Register here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Empire

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Donald Trump will be president of the United States for the second time, a development that will dramatically alter the course of American society and have many implications for the world order. The fact that the Senate has shifted to the Republicans will enable Trump, notably in assembling his cabinet and in shaping new legislation. In policy terms, an important difference between the next and the previous Trump government will be an ideological coherence and more singular organisations. In addition, the Trump victory will likely trigger a shift in power within the Democratic party.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Amidst a very strong turnout, America looks divided, and the campaign has been rancorous. Trump’s election will have implications for healthcare, women’s health, immigration, and law - in most cases not for the better.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In terms of foreign policy, the world’s view of America will change, compared to the sense people have had of it over the past fifty years. The re-shaping of the Middle East, to Iran’s detriment, will accelerate. It is likely that Trump will push for a deal of sorts between Ukraine and Russia, though Ukraine and Europe may well contest the parameters of this.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Europe will feel lonelier diplomatically and will need to become more independent. A power shift from large countries like Germany to eastern states like Poland, as well as Italy, will occur and Viktor Orbán will continue to irritate colleagues. For the UK’s Starmer-led government, the notion of the ‘special relationship’ may well be over.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ireland may not suffer diplomatically in the way Germany or the UK might, but trade and investment policy are more uncertain now, and there is a growing sense that like other European countries, there is a divergence between American society and that of Ireland.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Economically, there is a perception that Trump is ‘good for business’ in the sense that regulation will be pared back, and taxes can fall. Trade policy is likely to be much more aggressive, granted some of the policies that have been crafted by members of the Trump entourage, and, few allies (i.e. Japan, South Korea) will be spared. Europe will be pivotal here in terms of how it plays the US-China trade relationship.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Trump may find that the one force that reins him in is the bond market. In the context of a very high deficit and near record levels of government debt, the room for fiscal manoeuvre is limited, though he is not known to favour tax hikes. In that respect, bond and dollar volatility may be the financial markers of the second Trump presidency, and this could well be exacerbated if he changes the make-up of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equities may see a short-term rally, but valuations are now at historically high levels, and ironically international investors may prefer to consider emerging and European assets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Want to hear more?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Join us at our next webinar: &lt;strong&gt;Global Markets After the Vote – The Ripple Effect of the US Election. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In what will undoubtedly be a week of wall-to-wall election coverage,&nbsp;this webinar is a must-attend for anyone looking at the bigger picture as an&nbsp;investor.&nbsp;We’ll cut through the noise to explore how&nbsp;the U.S. election could impact markets globally, with a focus on what it&nbsp;means for Ireland’s economy, local business, and individual investments.&nbsp;Join us on Wednesday, &lt;strong&gt;13th November at 11 am&lt;/strong&gt; to get valuable insights and stay prepared for whatever changes may come.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7474495881785115482&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Register here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Trump 2.0 - Implications

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning November 4th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our weekly brief&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/xiz66I9AJ1A?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ahead of tomorrow's US vote, the Dollar index has sold off as the polls continue to tighten between both candidates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Global equities had a difficult week, down 1.4% driven by weaker than expected earnings in the tech space.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Global bonds rose as the UK budget was not well received and caution continues ahead of the US election.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Eurozone inflation fell to 2% in October, in line with the European's Central Bank's target.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The Federal Reserve and Bank of England have interest rate calls on Thursday.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Berkshire Hathaway, Ryanair and Novo Nordisk all announce earnings this week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 04 November, 2024

&lt;p&gt;Budget 2025 saw the lifetime thresholds for Capital Acquisitions Tax increase – and with these changes already in effect, it’s never been a better time to think about how you can engage in tax-efficient estate planning.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The last thing anyone wants to have to think about when they have just lost a loved one is a tax bill. Building your legacy isn’t easy and you don’t want to see your hard work swallowed up by the tax man when the next generation receive their inheritance.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are numerous ways that you can tax efficiently pass assets to your family, both during your lifetime and as part of your legacy. The earlier you start, the bigger the potential tax savings.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Capital Acquisitions Tax (CAT)&lt;/strong&gt; is charged on assets that you receive as a gift or inheritance and the current rate of this tax is 33%. Of course, you can receive a certain level of wealth this way tax free, within ‘threshold’ limits. These limits depend on your relationship to the recipient of the gift or inheritance.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Parents typically look to pass their wealth to the next generation where there is a surplus of wealth, or likely to be one over time. Where a gift or inheritance from a parent to child, the first €400,000 given or inherited, can be received tax free. Beyond this though, it’s a different story. The thresholds are less generous between different groups.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCOQSE43FS6ZCNTMR6SVU63B7U4I?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Lifetime CAT Thresholds&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fy49&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCOQSE43FS6ZCNTMR6SVU63B7U4I&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Lifetime CTA Thresholds.PNG&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In fact, the current threshold from parent to child is quite low when you consider that the average house price across Ireland is €335,000* with many properties selling for amounts well in excess of this. This can lead to children having to sell an inherited property that may have been owned by a family for some time, simply to meet a tax liability.&nbsp; *source CSO, Property Price Index, April 2024.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, how can you pass on your wealth and make sure that the next generation can benefit in the way that you would hope?&nbsp;Here are a few planning ideas that might be of benefit to you.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Make a will&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ensure your Estate is divided up on death to make the most of those tax-free thresholds, i.e. leave assets to everyone who has a threshold available to them, including grandchildren and your children’s spouses/partners. Don’t let the laws of intestacy decide who receives the assets you’ve spent your lifetime building up - or the associated tax bill!&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Small Gift Exemption&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;During your lifetime you can gift to your children up to €3,000 every year tax free. In fact, you can gift this amount to as many people as you like each year, without it attracting any tax for the recipient or you – although it is important to make sure you can meet your own needs before you consider gifting. For example, if a couple were to each gift to their two sons, their two daughters-in-law and five grandchildren over the next 20 years, they would reduce the value of their estate on death and gift a total of €1,080,000 – all tax free. This would represent a tax saving of €356,400 – and all without utilising any of the available tax-free thresholds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Consider a savings plan&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you plan to give larger gifts during your lifetime that might lead to the recipient exceeding their lifetime threshold limit, you might consider starting a special type of savings plan, the value of which is specifically used for the payment of CAT. This could be useful if you intend to provide a large gift in the future, perhaps for a property purchase.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What about your pension assets?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you’re already retired, you may have an Approved Retirement Fund (ARF). If an ARF is left, as part of your will, to anyone other than your spouse or children it will be subject to income tax at your marginal rate. Additionally, the remaining balance, after the deduction of income tax, will be further reduced by CAT. Addressing inheritance of ARF specifically in your Will can ensure it doesn’t fall into the residue of your estate and end up being inherited by someone other than your spouse/child.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Consider taking out a life insurance policy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A Section 72 ‘whole of life’ life insurance policy can be taken out specifically for the payment of a CAT liability. The value of the policy itself, where established correctly, is exempt from any CAT. This can provide much-needed cash for your beneficiaries to pay inheritance tax on illiquid assets like property. Furthermore, the pay-out can be larger than the accumulated value of the associated premiums, and unlike other types of life policies, a whole of life policy is guaranteed to pay out on death.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Look at offsetting tax on personal investment assets&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some investments may be subject to exit tax on death, but this tax can be offset against any CAT incurred by the recipient when they inherit the investment. It’s worth considering leaving such investments specifically to someone who will also incur an inheritance tax liability on receipt of them and can therefore avail of the tax offset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Other assets may be subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) if you gift them during your lifetime. However, if the recipient has used up their lifetime threshold and is subject to CAT on the gift, this CAT can be offset against the CGT you have paid.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would like to find out more about gifting and legacy planning, speak to your Unio adviser and they will talk you through the best solutions for you or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch with us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Preserving Wealth and Legacy - Smart Inheritance Tax Planning

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A headline in last week’s Guardian caught my eye. It read ‘No-one will save you’ and detailed the bubbling awakening of a volcano near Grindavik in the south of Iceland. Granted that we were in the area, we drove down to have a look. My family didn’t share my ‘lava-lust’ and luckily for them the police were still in place and roads to the volcano were closed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;However, the ‘no one will save you theme’ is also relevant to Iceland in the financial sense, in the way it represents a rare example of a small, powerless country that resolved its banking and debt crisis by itself, in a very painful but ultimately productive way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Some readers may recall that in the mid 2000’s Icelandic entrepreneurs were making headlines with bids for leading British retailers like Hamleys and Karen Millen. That a small, fish led economy of some 350,000 people could produce such brash, adventurous capitalists has less to do with Iceland’s Viking and Celtic heritage than the over supply of cheap money from its banks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At the time&lt;strong&gt;,&lt;/strong&gt; Iceland vied with Ireland for the title of ‘biggest banking sector’ (relative to GDP). According to a presentation deck from Mar Gudmundsson&lt;strong&gt;,&lt;/strong&gt; the Norwegian who took over as head of Iceland’s central bank post the crisis, the Icelandic banking sector grew by a factor of three times between 2004 and 2008. Specifically, Iceland’s banks, the likes of Glitnir, Landsbanki and Kaupthing (all AAA rated of course) were growing their balance sheets at a rapid rate (to a near record 10 times Iceland’s GDP) and bankers travelled from London to sell them new, genius investment ideas.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Like Ireland, Iceland became admired for its ‘model’ economy, and took advantage of the fawning of other Nordic countries and bodies like the OECD to sell more ‘Glacier bonds’.&nbsp;There are plenty of colourful stories about the exploits of Icelandic bankers at that time, but to cut a long story short, when the global financial crisis struck in October 2008, the Icelandic banking system quickly collapsed.&nbsp;As a small, open economy with meagre financial resources, the fallout was dramatic and painful. In the aftermath of the crisis, the Reykjavik stock market fell by 90%, the corporate bond market cratered, and the currency (Icelandic krona, ISK) by 50%. Many households had borrowed in foreign currencies and as a result saw the burden (in ISK) of their mortgages soar. On paper, Iceland’s debt to GDP hit 700%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A classic banking bubble was soon followed by a deep, textbook ‘bust’ (one economist Hermann Schwartz summed it up as ‘Iceland came late to the global party, drank too quickly, and hit the floor rather harder than larger economies’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What is most interesting about Iceland is the way it resolved its crisis, largely by itself and through the will of the people. This might sound obvious or even trite, but when I compare it to the fallout from Ireland’s economic blow-up whose causes were very similar to Iceland’s banking crisis, Iceland has demonstrated a far greater degree of reform and accountability in its public life. In a world of heavily indebted nations the example of Iceland is one to bear in mind.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Like other European countries at the epicentre of the financial crisis Iceland was gripped by protests. Reform came quickly. The long-serving prime minister, Geir Haarde lost his job (his last speech to the nation ended with the words ‘God save Iceland’), and the governor of the central bank was forced out of his&nbsp;role.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The new government, and to a large extent the Icelandic people are considered to have largely taken ownership of the resolution of the crisis (think of the public opposition to pension reform in France as a counter example). Some thirty-six bankers were tried, sent to jail and fined, a development that is in stark contrast to other crisis hit countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Iceland suffered a brutal financial shock, and a deep hit to the real economy (output dropped 15% in two years), though this was ultimately less severe than the damage done to the Greek and Spanish economies, one reason for this being the manner in which the drop in the ISK made Iceland attractive as an exporter and tourist destination (the curiosity of tourists was also piqued by the explosion of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano and the use of Iceland as a location for Game of Thrones).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A number of financial reforms also helped, the financial regulator was given extra powers, notably to protect deposit holders and new, domestic economy focused banks were created. The government refused to assume responsibility for debt owed to foreign nations and investors (many of whom were in the UK which placed Iceland on a terror watch list). Fiscal austerity was imposed, under the watch of the IMF, but this was less onerous in its conditionality than that imposed on Ireland, Greece and Spain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The result of this reform and readjustment process was that the Icelandic economy began to recover some three years after the crisis started, and according to Iceland’s central bank GDP growth had caught up with the recovery of the US economy by 2018, surpassing that of the euro-zone.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whilst it is a small, idiosyncratic economy, there are some clear lessons from Iceland in terms of how an open economy might deal with a multi-faceted banking, debt and currency crisis.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Very broadly, the key elements involve prioritizing the domestic economy, domestic banking&nbsp;deposits and the free functioning of the financial system,&nbsp;the sense of justice and accountability that comes from ‘regime’ change and the arraignment of guilty bankers,&nbsp;the absence of overly punitive austerity, and the presence of a stabilizing mechanism (in this case the currency).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As I write, Iceland’s economy seems to be thriving, with a new focus on biotech, geothermal power and climate-tech. France, Germany and the UK should pay attention.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

No One Will Save You

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Kim Hong-Kyun is not a name that very many Europeans know, but they really should, given his grave diplomatic intervention last week. Hong-Kyun is the South Korean ‘first foreign minister’, who last week summoned the Russian ambassador to Seoul to register South Korea’s displeasure at the news that up to 12,000 North Korean soldiers are in or on their way to Russia to fight in Ukraine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;While North Korea’s contribution to the Russian war effort is already known (their armaments industry is producing as many shells as Russia itself – and more than all of Europe), the prospect of an Asian state sending soldiers to fight in a European country is unprecedented, and I am perplexed that European governments have not reacted to this (though South Korea, Australia and Japan sent representatives to a recent NATO meeting).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The South Koreans have pledged to arm Ukraine if North Korean troops fight there, raising the complicated prospect of an Asian proxy war in Europe – again something that would have been inconceivable years ago, and that also tilts us towards the notion of a world war.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whilst some readers might find this an exaggeration, we are at a moment of coherence, when threads that have been developing over the years become clearer and begin to describe the contours of the emerging geopolitical order.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One of the notable formations here is the SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which I wrote about in the Levelling (p. 245) describing them as a geopolitical ‘gang’ of the future and sort of anti-NATO coalition, or at least an anti-AUKUS* group. Despite this, few of the university post-grads in international relations I have come across in recent teaching sessions knew of the SCO.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There is a sense that the shadow or the logic of the SCO was lurking behind last week’s BRICS meeting, given the perception that the BRICS is becoming an anti-Western alliance, which in reality is not true. Reinforcing this are the very different cultures across the BRICS countries, and the risk to their project that relations between them depend on individual autocrats rather than institutions or peoples.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Yet, a sign of the times is the manner in which large emerging nations like India and Turkey are hedging their bets in the sense of maintaining good relations with Russia and the US. For India in particular, the BRICS meeting was a chance to begin to repair relations with China.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;They could be forgiven for doing so granted the impact that the outcome of the US presidential election will have on international relations. The choice is one between an effective continuation of the foreign policy of the Biden/Democrat administration in the context of growing pushback against American power, versus a Trump foreign policy that is unsure, opportunistic and likely goes against the deep grain of Republican foreign policy as established by Ronald Reagan, George H Bush, Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;2025 will hopefully see the end of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, following which the notion of the coherence of rival systems will come into sharper focus. It is increasingly clear that the leading autocratic states (Russia and China) are hell bent on undermining the democratic world, and any nations that toy with the idea of joining it (witness the heavy handed Russian interference in last week’s referendum on EU membership in Moldova, and it's obvious interference in Georgia’s election which takes place this weekend).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The danger is that the sharpening coherence of the SCO is like the development of AI – it has been gathering pace amongst specialists for some time, and then a public event (the launch of ChatGPT) brings it into the public domain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One of the obvious casualties of the emergence of the SCO and indeed the geopolitical trials the world is suffering, is the diminished influence and credibility of world institutions like the UN and WTO (World Trade Organisation), which are being reduced to the role of bystanders in this emerging geopolitical contest.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The scene is set then for the November 5th election to either reinforce or undermine the world order.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Coherence

&lt;p&gt;In an intense year of elections, the most consequential is America’s, which besides many other factors, will have decisive implications for trade.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From an investment point of view, the difference in trade and economic policy between the candidates is stark.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-October-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more in October’s Global Macro Council Outlook.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this month's GMC, we were fortunate to be joined by guest speakers Shanella Rajanayagam, Trade Economist at HSBC and Arnab Das, Global Market Strategy at Invesco, EMEA. Thank you both for your insights and expertise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Re-Globalising Trade

&lt;p&gt;There is a theory abroad that the British Empire was so vast and dominant, simply because a large country (England) was attached to a brilliant small country (Scotland). It is true that many of the individuals we associate with the advancement of Britain are Scottish - economist Adam Smith, scientists James Watt, Alexander Fleming and Alexander Graham Bell, and writers like Arthur Conan Doyle and Walter Scott. More recently, some of the more prominent political figures in Westminster have been Scottish – such as Gordon Brown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This year is the tenth anniversary of the Scottish independence referendum, which whilst the motion for independence was defeated, set in train a groundswell in favour of independence and the resulting electoral landslide for the Scottish National Party in the subsequent general election. At the time of the referendum, the SNP was led by Alex Salmond, who died last week, and who was the founding father and driving force of the independence movement (and a subscriber to this note).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the time of the referendum, there was great interest in the prospect of Scotland going it alone, and the way the Scots might dis-engage their economy from England was the focus of attention. In many respects the downfall of the independence side was that they became mired in an argument over the kind of currency arrangement Scotland might have, and the resulting impact that this could have on household finances. In the land of Braveheart, this battle by spreadsheet proved too much.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The independence referendum also brought into focus the kind of socio-economic model that Scotland might enjoy, and this spurred me to start researching the model of small, advanced states, a theme I have developed in collaboration with David Skilling over the years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Simply put, our thesis is that while the likes of Sweden, Switzerland, Singapore, Ireland and the Netherlands are culturally very different they, and a handful of other small states are all highly successful. Alex Salmond used to refer to the northern most small, advanced economies as the ‘arc of prosperity’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Small-advanced states dominate the lists of ‘happiest nation’, ‘most innovative’ and ‘most open economy’, and share a common set of factors upon which their success is built (strong institutions, a healthy regard for the rule of law, prioritisation of education and innovation for example).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, this ‘secret sauce’ tallies with the work of the winners of this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson, the body of whose works links growth to institutions and laws (the book ‘Why Nations Fail’ is worth a read).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the first occasions that David and I presented our work was with Alex Salmond, in Singapore, and since then David in particular has been an active adviser to the Scottish government.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My sense is that the death of Alex Salmond, and the near implosion of the SNP amidst a series of leadership crises (and the resurrection of the Scottish Labour party who have increased their tally of Scottish MPs in Westminster from 2 to 37) will gravely diminish the political momentum towards an independent Scotland. On the other hand, the limits that Brexit places on the UK in general will serve as one of several motivators for the Scots to go their own way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the underlying theses behind the small state model is that they are adaptive and strategic – nimbly ducking around the imbalances of a chaotic world. To a large extent this is still true – the Nordic countries, as well as the smaller Baltic states have impressively upped their game on the security and defence front (Ireland has not), and Sweden and Finland have thrown off their neutrality.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, and a marker of how policy is changing in the Western world, the Nordic state – once a near parody of tolerance – are adopting much tougher stances on immigration, and after too much patience, organised crime. If they are really canaries in the coal mine of world politics, this turning point suggests that in Europe, there is now little welcome for an increase in immigration.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, having been in the vanguard of economic advancement during globalization, small, advanced states are at the forefront of dealing with the challenges of an intensely geopolitical world.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Act of  Union

&lt;p&gt;The Minister for Finance, Jack Chambers TD, has published Finance Bill 2024, following approval by Government late last week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Finance Bill 2024 contains important changes to pensions along with other changes that could effect your financial planning. It's important to note that the changes have been announced but are not in law until ratified through the Finance Act, which usually happens towards the end of the calendar year.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We have reviewed Finance Bill 2024 and picked out the key proposed changes that may have an impact on our advice to you.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While we had expected to see detail on the implementation of the recently announced SFT changes, we were disappointed to see proposed changes to employer PRSA contributions.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;PRSA Contributions&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Employer contributions to PRSAs will be &lt;strong&gt;limited to 100% of the employee’s remuneration&lt;/strong&gt;. Any contribution above this amount will be treated as &lt;strong&gt;Benefit in Kind (BIK)&lt;/strong&gt; and be &lt;strong&gt;subject to income tax&lt;/strong&gt; for the employee.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Employer contributions to PRSAs will still be allowed as a deductible expense for the employer&lt;strong&gt; up to the limit of 100% of the employee’s salary&lt;/strong&gt;.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;PRSA changes are expected to come into effect on 01/01/2025.&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;If you are planning an employer contribution to your PRSA, it is important that you do not delay and reach out to your Unio Adviser as soon as possible.&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Standard Fund Threshold (SFT)&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The SFT defines the maximum tax-efficient pension fund in Ireland. It is set to rise to&lt;strong&gt; €2.8 million by 2029,&lt;/strong&gt; with the threshold rising by&lt;strong&gt; €200,000 per annum from 2026 – 2029&lt;/strong&gt;. From 2030 onwards, the threshold is then set to rise in line with an applicable level of growth each year (yet to be determined).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chargeable Excess Tax (CET)&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-No changes to the rate of CET applicable on claims above the Standard Fund Threshold (SFT) limit were detailed in the Finance Bill which will remain at &lt;strong&gt;40% &lt;/strong&gt;for the time-being.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-No change was indicated to being able to offset the&lt;strong&gt; 20% tax &lt;/strong&gt;on a retirement lump sum between &lt;strong&gt;€200,000 - €500,000 &lt;/strong&gt;against CET.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We may see a change to both of the above once the first SFT increase happens in &lt;strong&gt;2026.&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Capital Acquisition tax (CAT) Thresholds&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Budget 2025 outlined that the Lifetime CAT thresholds will increase for the first time since 2019. This has mainly been in response to the rapid increase seen in property prices and will allow for a greater transfer of wealth between generations without triggering a tax liability.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Group A Threshold (parent to child) increases from €335,000 to&lt;strong&gt; €400,000.&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Group B Threshold (grandchildren and other relatives) increases from €32,500 to &lt;strong&gt;€40,000.&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Group C Threshold (other) increases from €16,250 to &lt;strong&gt;€20,000.&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There was no mention of a change to the CAT rate of &lt;strong&gt;33%&lt;/strong&gt; so this will still apply to any amounts above the new thresholds.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The threshold increases were effective from 02/10/2024.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Retirement Relief&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Retirement Relief has been amended so that if an individual &lt;strong&gt;aged 55 or over&lt;/strong&gt; disposes of qualifying assets to a child after&lt;strong&gt; 01/01/2025&lt;/strong&gt;,&lt;strong&gt; a lifetime limit of €10m&lt;/strong&gt; will apply.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Capital Gains Tax (CGT) will apply on any balance above this unless the child&lt;strong&gt; retains ownership of the asset for 12 years&lt;/strong&gt;, in which case the CGT will be deferred.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-If the child disposes of the qualifying asset&lt;strong&gt; prior to the 12-year deferment period&lt;/strong&gt;, they will be liable for CGT on the original amount received above the €10m threshold and any subsequent gains on the asset since they received same.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What do these changes mean for you?&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For a full understanding of the potential changes and the impact they will have on&nbsp;financial planning for your future, speak to your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Finance Bill 2024

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning October 14th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our brief below.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/1U0MdgG2Gfo?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Last week saw the beginning of Q3 corporate earnings, and as is tradition, financial sector businesses kicked things off. The big news came from the performance of JP Morgan, with the bank comfortably exceeding profit expectations. It was also a good week for Blackrock with their AUM surpassing $11.5Tn after a positive quarter.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-On the macro side the key talking point of the week was US inflation, which came in at 2.4% slightly above economists expectations. There is also growing fears that the German economy will contract this year but bounce back strongly in 2025 as rates fall.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Overall global equity markets were positive for the week up 1.2% led by growth stocks. Fixed income markets were relatively muted over the week off the back of mixed macro news.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 14 10 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Regular readers will know that I travel a lot, always with a preference for boats and trains and by air when necessary. Having spent much of the summer without the need for a plane, the next few months will see an intensification of my travel schedule across Europe, the Middle East and Asia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In most places I will be talking about the economics and politics of a changing world, but the virtue of visiting so many cities (Hamburg to Abu Dhabi for instance) and regions (the Cotswolds to South East Asia) is the opportunity it grants to witness the kinds of growth and development happening in the world, and the measures we can use to compare economic activity across countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Here, a few favourites come to mind. In the 1990’s and early 2000’s it was commonplace for economists and investment strategists in the large banks to rush back from trips to Asia with tales of how many cranes they had seen across the skylines of major Chinese cities and estimates of what this meant for the growth of the Chinese economy. Nowadays, those economists sit on a deck chair in the Marina Bay Sands hotel in Singapore, look out onto the bay and count the number of tankers anchored there as a proxy for global supply chain disruption.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Another tell-tale indicator is taxis. A former colleague, friend and reader of this note, with whom I used to travel to Japan with in the late 1990’s referenced the length of taxi queues as a proxy for Japan’s then moribund economy (often unoccupied taxi ranks would snake around office blocks).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then on a visit to a thriving Abu Dhabi in 2012, my taxi driver got lost (on the way to the airport). He apologised, saying it was his ‘first day’. I assumed he meant it was his first day as a taxi driver, but it turned out that it was his first day in Abu Dhabi. I politely took this as a sign of a vibrant labour market and a strong economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A risk that travelling economists face, not unwittingly, is that they normally stay in the centre of a city, and often in a decent hotel. I wrote a note some time ago describing this as ‘Grande Bretagne’ syndrome, after the teams from the IMF who oversaw the austerity programme of the Greek economy during the euro-zone financial crisis who stayed in the plush Grande Bretagne and Hilton hotels in the city centre. While this placed them near the seat of power, it meant that they were blind to the brutal impact of austerity across the country.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In general, travelling economists should get out and about. For instance, the quality of public transport in a country is a good indicator of the standard of infrastructure and to an extent, social cohesion and, is also a good way to observe a society. Someone observed that a city in which the wealthy use public transport is a well-balanced one (Zurich is a good example). In contrast, there is, inexplicably, no train from Dublin airport to the city centre, but a ride on the Luas tram will give a very good idea of the dramatic changes in Irish society.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In keeping with this approach, a favourite activity to beat jetlag and to either reacquaint with or discover a city is an early morning run (this week’s schedule took in the Tour Eiffel, the Tiergarten and Madrid (the park was closed due to bad weather)). In that idiosyncratic way, My eyes (and feet) are sensitive to the quality of the road surface, pollution and to the appearance of new buildings and signs of dereliction (Berlin scores on both counts).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are other indicators of the economic prowess of cities, such as the rise of tall towers (the UAE for instance). In this tech driven age, a new category of indicators might comprise cities that want to become crypto-hubs (UAE, Miami, Zurich, Lisbon) and those that seek to attract large artificial intelligence (AI) firms (OpenAI has just opened an office in Paris).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As a final note on Madrid, I haven't seen the city as ‘sleek’ or well presented (the 12th was the national holiday), and it must be said, as expensive. Note that Spain now has a slightly lower interest rate (bond yield) than France, and a considerably higher rate of growth than Germany.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are a lot more Latin Americans than I had expected, and this has both helped tourism, and pushed up house prices (to the ire of some locals). Spain’s golden visa system means that it is the recipient of wealthier Latin Americans leaving countries like Venezuela. At the same time, quite a number of Spanish businesses and executives are relocating to Lisbon, which is a warning sign for innovation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

From Cranes to Crypto

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Winter it seems, across much of Europe, has come early. Two instincts that grow as the evenings darken are the inclination to have a tipple in the evening and to watch a good film. One Danish work that captures both sentiments is &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.festival-cannes.com/en/f/druk/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!m5CdP4wjWeNpTzeY7XT2opD79WAJfFlQZ0laKWMx1xxJGJ0zxBJbJex7G8SXVhHd9ZxtIG0iZ_jDOVxMYXjg9A_9$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;‘Druk’ or ‘Another Round’&lt;/a&gt;, which won the Oscar for best international film in 2021. I recommend it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the film a group of four school teacher friends decide to test the hypothesis of a Norwegian psychologist that humans have a deficiency of alcohol in their blood, and the protagonists undertake an experiment to maintain a ‘warm’ level of alcohol in their blood. It is an experiment I attempt often, but the real lesson today is with central banking.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It seems that central bankers have decided that in the spirit of ‘Druk’, the liquidity in the world financial system is not sufficient and have set out to administer near daily injections of cheap money. The number of central banks changing policy (i.e. to negative) is the greatest it has been, apart from the global financial crisis and the COVID period. In September alone there have been 24 rate cuts from central banks around the world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Chief amongst these has been the 50-basis point cut from the Federal Reserve and the very dramatic, multiple policy moves by China. In short China has cut rates, infused the banking system, made mortgages cheaper and generally tried to spread liquidity over the emerging cracks in China’s economy. In the spirit of ‘Druk’ it is the equivalent of going on a five day bender in order to cure a serious disease.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Nonetheless, the easing in policy from the Fed and China, together with what will likely be a couple of more rate cuts this year from the European Central Bank mean that the world financial system is flush with liquidity. Chinese markets – hitherto the worst performing markets of a major economy – show the impact and importance of liquidity. The market cap of the Hang Seng index has grown by a quarter in less than two weeks. China has overtaken the US in terms of equity market performance to date.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There is no change to fundamentals – I don’t see this policy move having a decisive impact on the downward trend in Chinese earnings, but that doesn’t matter in the near term – liquidity is coursing through the pipes of the Chinese financial system, and in turn might bring a temporary easing to conditions in the property market.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For all the analysts who devote time to measuring earnings and calibrating valuations, the reality is that in this era of ‘quick to please’ monetary policy, liquidity matters a lot for asset prices. My rule of thumb in constructing a measure of liquidity would encompass money supply, the state of central bank balance sheets, the key role of the dollar and net issuance of debt by treasuries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The arcane notion of financial liquidity has attracted enough attention that the Financial Times recently ran an article breaking down its component parts. A couple of top-flight economics consultancies run their own measures of liquidity – such as LongView Economics and Michael Howell at CrossBorder Capital. The latter holds that we are on the cusp of a significant upswing in global liquidity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If that is true, the implication for markets is ‘Druk’- a persistent giddyiness whilst central banks keep rates low and liquidity flush, amidst an acceptable level of GDP and profit growth. This is the kind of macro climate we have seen in the mid and late 1990’s, and one that tends to dampen the market implications of turbulent geopolitics.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;From the point of view of asset prices, there are a couple of possible trajectories. Historically, the Fed has started to cut interest rates when the price to earnings ratio on the S&amp;P 500 has been close to 10 times (1960’s to 1990’s). Now, like in 2000, it is in the mid 20’s which suggests that extra liquidity now could run asset prices in bubble territory proper, and cultivate the next bout of inflation, something the central banks’ bank, the BIS, has warned about (helpfully the BIS has taken a counter view to that of its members ahead of a number of crisis).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For the time being, the upturn in liquidity may be most meaningful for capital markets activity and assets in the private economy. They have been in the doldrums. If the ‘Druk’ hypothesis is working we should see a rise in IPO activity into 2025, and intensification in private equity deals and a rise in funding activity (beyond AI firms) in venture.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then, later in 2025, the hangover will arrive.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Druk

&lt;p&gt;Minister for Finance Jack Chambers announced his first Budget to the Dáil, detailing a host of tax and cost of living measures. This announcement will be followed by the Finance Bill next week, which we expect to confirm other measures, such as amendments to the Standard Fund Threshold. This along with the other recommendations outlined in the&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/standard-fund-threshold-set-to-increase&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; report of the independent examination of the Standard Fund Threshold (SFT)&lt;/a&gt; may have an impact on your retirement planning. A lot of these recommendations for change are long overdue and we have outlined the most important details that may affect you below.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What the recent Standard Fund Threshold changes could mean for you&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On 18th September, Minister Chambers announced several positive changes with regards to pensions ahead of the Finance Bill for 2025. These were announced on the back of a review &amp; recommendations conducted by an independent expert, Dr. Donal de Buitléir. While these changes are still at a very high level and with additional details still to emerge with regards to some of the finer details, they could have a significant impact on how you can plan for your retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Standard Fund Threshold (SFT)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The SFT is the maximum tax-efficient pension fund in Ireland, and it has been set at €2million since 2014. However, the recent announcement is set to see this rise to €2.8million by 2029, with the threshold rising by €200,000 per annum from 2026 – 2029. From 2030 onwards, the threshold is then set to rise in line with an applicable level of growth each year (yet to be determined).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chargeable Excess Tax (CET)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The reason the SFT plays such a key part in retirement planning is that any funds that exceed this €2million limit are subject to a CET of 40%. This tax has been considered overly punishing for those with high pension potential, as the 40% excess could be taxed again once pension income is drawn.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the rate of CET is to remain unchanged for now, a review of this is due to take place by 2030, with a rate as low as 10% recommended.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Retirement Lump Sums&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Under the current rules, a lifetime tax-efficient lump sum of €500,000 can be taken from all combined pension pots. The first €200,000 of this is tax free, while the remaining €300,000 is subject to a standard rate tax of 20% (up to a total of €60,000).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This lump sum amount is not set to rise and will remain at €500,000. It was previously linked as a proportion (25%) of the SFT, but this link is due to be severed and the €500,000 will instead remain as a fixed amount.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Currently, you can receive a credit for any tax paid on a lump sum above the €200,000 with any CET liability to avoid double taxation in this space (so the first €60,000 of CET could be offset against the €60,000 standard tax on a lump sum amount of €500,000). However, if the CET rate be reduced to the recommended 10% in future, then this credit will also likely be abolished. However, this will be reviewed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Other recommendations of interest included in the report&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The removal of annual pension and age-related contribution limits on schemes&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• A review of the capitalisation factors used to determine the overall value of Defined Benefit pension schemes with regards to the SFT, with a decrease in the current age-related factors recommended. This review will be applicable to benefits accrued since 01 January 2014&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Potential allowance for any CET payments to be spread over 20 years instead of a once-off up-front cost to private sector workers&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• A review of the connection between a Pension Adjustment Order (PAO) and the SFT. However, this would need further legal advice to advance any specific proposal.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What this means for you&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While some of these recommendations are in their early stages, they could have a significant impact on your overall pension pot at retirement, depending on where you are in your retirement planning journey and your specific circumstances.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is particularly important if you’re due to retire in 2025 as the changes to SFT limits are not due to come into effect until 2026.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is equally important if you have previously drawn benefits from a pension plan, as depending on the amounts, you may or may not have scope for additional pension funding.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is also an opportunity to revise existing contribution and investment strategies to ensure you are maximising your retirement drawdown potential.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Therefore, it is essential to review your pension strategy with your adviser to receive careful and considered retirement planning advice. They will advise you on the best course of action to take in respect of these changes to ensure you achieve your specific retirement goals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;All eyes will now be focused on the Finance Bill announcement next week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;PRSA Contributions for Business Owners&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While there was no mention of changes to company contribution limits in the Budget, this may change when the Finance Bill is published next week.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Increase to Capital Acquisitions Tax (CAT) Thresholds&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A welcome addition to Budget 2025 was the announcement that the Lifetime CAT thresholds will increase for the first time since 2019. This has mainly been in response to the rapid increase seen in property prices over the past few years and will allow for a greater transfer of wealth between generations without triggering a tax liability.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Group A Threshold&lt;/strong&gt; (parent to child) increasing from €335,000 to&lt;strong&gt; €400,000.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Group B Threshold&lt;/strong&gt; (grandchildren and other relatives) increasing from €32,500 to &lt;strong&gt;€40,000.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Group C Threshold&lt;/strong&gt; (other) increasing from €16,250 to&lt;strong&gt; €20,000.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There was no mention of a change to the CAT rate of 33% so this will still apply to any amounts above the new thresholds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There were also no changes noted to the Small Gift Exemption of €3,000 per annum.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The changes to the CAT rates allow for new opportunities for lifetime gifting and estate planning, and we recommend you discuss this with your Unio Adviser.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Retirement Relief&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This relief is often used when passing on a business to the next generation. CGT at 33% may be due on the gains made by the parent passing on the business to their child. Changes were announced in last year’s budget to the upper age limit and the amounts that can be relieved.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An additional change was announced in Budget 2025 outlining that if the child continues to hold the shares in the business for 12 years, this CGT will be abated in full.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While this is another welcome addition, a cautious approach should be taken until the full mechanics of how this will be implemented are finalised.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Other Changes of Note&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The amount that can be relieved under the popular Employment Incentive Investment Scheme (EIIS) has been doubled from €500,000 to €1 million.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Further information on tax relief on the auto-enrolment scheme, to be introduced from September 2025 as per latest guidance, was provided. Employer contributions can be relieved for tax, and growth on the pension assets will be free of tax.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The Standard rate tax cut off increased from €42,000 to €44,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Personal tax credits increased by €125 to a new threshold of €1,875.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• 4% rate of USC decreased to 3% with a new entry point of €27,382.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Stamp duty on residential property increases with immediate effect. Rates as follows: 1% to €1m, 2% on next €500,000, 6% on excess above €1.5m.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• State Pension increased by €12 per week to €289.70.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• A generous cost of living package was introduced.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Unio-Budget-2025-Highlights.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;View a summary of key Budget 2025 highlights here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would like to discuss how these changes could affect your personal financial plans, speak to your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Budget 2025 Highlights

&lt;p&gt;The Boston Tea Party is an early example of how a trade dispute can reshape an economy (Boston) and foment political change. It is iconic enough that the first presidency of Donald Trump was prefigured by the rise of the Tea Party as a disruptive force in Republican politics.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With the presidential election not far off now, tariffs form the spear-end of Donald Trump’s economic strategy, potentially because he can implement them unilaterally (without the approval of the Senate). In addition, many of his acolytes, from Robert Lighthizer to Peter Navarro, are ‘trade’ obsessed, and have recently published books like ‘No Trade is Free‘ to underline the ways in which they would re-order the international trade system.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, other members of the Trump entourage such as Robert O’Brien, the National Security Adviser (2019-21) has in the July edition of Foreign Affairs Journal invoked the idea that America can bring peace to a disordered world through ‘strength’. In this vision, strength comes in the form of 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and export controls, a message that has repeatedly been emphasised by Trump himself.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that context, a second Trump presidency could begin with a trade war, and a verbal assault on the currencies of ostensible allies that have weakened in recent years, such as the Japanese yen. American consumers and potentially the bond market might pay the price of tariffs &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/sovereign-debt-funds&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;(we wrote last week that Trump wanted to fund the development of a sovereign wealth fund with revenues from tariffs)&lt;/a&gt;.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Trade wars are generally not successful, and while Trump may have in mind America’s trade spats with Japan (1987), the weight of past trade disputes going back to the Smoot Hawley Act suggest that there are better ways to guard American economic power. China could respond with measures that cripple supply chains for at least a couple of years. In this scenario, a trade confrontation between the US and China would decisively shatter the axis of globalisation as we know it, and finally render the WTO (World Trade Organisation) obsolete.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A US-China trade war might have many other consequences.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One might be the rise of populous south Asian (and south east Asian) from India to Bangladesh to Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, with Singapore as their organising locus. Many of these countries are urbanising and rolling out infrastructure, most of them need but distrust China, and in most cases aspire to closer commercial ties to the USA. Tariffs on China by the USA will accelerate supply chain de-risking by Western multinationals towards these countries, though this could well complicate their relationship with China.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A second consideration is Europe. The EU has been caught by surprise by the consequences of several Biden administration policies – the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act – which illustrates that US international trade policy is usually made with a view to domestic politics. A second Trump presidency should be no surprise to Brussels, and there is a small but important team of officials working on a policy response to a potential trade war on Europe by Trump.&nbsp;Europe’s trump card may lie in its role as a partner with the US against China. It will be difficult for Washington to reshape trade relations with China, Europe and potentially Japan by taking each one on. Stymieing China is better done in collaboration with Japan and Europe, and Trump should really see the constraints of the policy situation that faces him.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A second Trump presidency will be different to the first in the sense that he has had time to prepare for it, and crucially, his supporters have had four years to concoct a policy strategy (‘2025’ seems to have dropped out of headlines). In the same way, a Harris presidency comes with deeper reserves of policy experts, and to a large sense on the international trade and economic outlook, the Harris case represents ‘more of the same’ in terms of the techno-strategic economic policy that is currently pursued by the White House.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An idealised, and though I like the idea a lot, too lofty rendition of this policy is Walter Russell’s Mead’s September Foreign Affairs essay entitled ‘The Return of Hamiltonian Statecraft’ which argues for the very unTrumpian notion of ‘enlightened patriotism’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, a Harris White House would use trade and investment policy to laser focus on America’s race with China for global supremacy. Driving Chinese economic and investment activity further inwards might be one goal, and ironically anything Washington can do to make Chinese public life more closed and repressive, the better (because it curbs innovation and wealth creation).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, the US and Europe, would both pursue parallel strategies of ‘strategic autonomy’ or what Trump refers to as ‘strategic national manufacturing’ focused on sectors like defence, new computing power (quantum, AI, data storage and management), batteries and new power sources and revolutionary medicine. Europe’s challenge is to find a way of reducing long-term energy costs.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Kamala Harris, who has trialled a few incoherent policies (taxes on unrealised capital gains, price controls) is likely to be more constrained in her fiscal policy – because her government is likely to instinctively focus more on tax and spending changes, for which she will need the help of the Senate (which in turn could tilt towards the Republicans). As such her fiscal policy will focus on not increasing the national debt, and like many other governments, encouraging the private sector to work with government to build out strategic technologies.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Another Tea Party

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning September 23rd, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/BZGxXt4dOOc?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-It was a frantic week for macro news with three of the world's largest central banks making interest rate calls.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The biggest news was the 50bps cut made by the Federal Reserve, somewhat catching analysts and economists off guard as most had priced in a 25bps cut. The cut, which took the base rate to 5.0%, indicated the Feds growing focus on a softening labour market versus the subsiding inflation challenge.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-In the UK, the Bank of England held its base rate at 5.0%, in an 8-1 vote, with uncertainty growing as to the outlook of the UK economy. The same story was true in Japan, with the Bank of Japan holding their base rate at 0.25%. The net result saw global equities rise over the week, up 0.7%.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The US market drove the returns, whilst both Europe and UK equities were negative on the week. Gold continued its strong rally, up 1.5% whilst crude oil jumped 4.5% due to declining global stockpiles and a sharp interest rate cut from the Fed.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The US 10yr-2yr yield curve “uninverted” as it headed back above 0% for the first time since early July 2022. Stable economic data coupled with a 50bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve gave investors confidence over the future of both short and medium term rates in the US.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCZLGLZ5YTB5ATPLSTO4ZHR4THQQ?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Chart of the Week 23 09 2024&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxrY&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCZLGLZ5YTB5ATPLSTO4ZHR4THQQ&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;chart of week.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Equities &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MC7P4QOQYY2JGGXBRZFNMYPAZNNA?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Equities Chart 23 09 2024&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxrd&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MC7P4QOQYY2JGGXBRZFNMYPAZNNA&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;equities.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Bonds&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCN36VD2F2N5EW3OUEOMDZ4LIVMI?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Bonds Chart 23 09 2024&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxri&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCN36VD2F2N5EW3OUEOMDZ4LIVMI&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;bonds.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 23rd September 2024

&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-September-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read September's Global Macro Outlook in full.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this month’s Unio Global Macro Council, discussion shifted from global topics to focus on Ireland's domestic developments ahead of the budget on October 1st and a likely general election in the coming months.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland's economy is stronger than other European economies however, capacity constraints (housing, infrastructure) could slow growth. Political discourse in Ireland differs from other European countries, with less focus on security and defence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland benefits from foreign direct investment, particularly from US tech firms, but risks are posed by potential US-EU trade tensions. Focus should be on domestic reforms, reducing business costs, and supporting tech start-ups to ensure future economic resilience.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read more in this month's Outlook.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Time for Small Tech

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One of the attractions of elections is that they throw up new ideas and policy proposals – and it is not unkind to say that one increasingly gets the impression of politicians throwing suggestions at the ‘policy wall’ to see what sticks. Aggressive tariffs on China and taxes on unrealised capital gains are two examples from the US.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One idea that Democrats and Republicans share is the proposed establishment of a sovereign wealth fund in the US. In the case of Donald Trump, his aim is to fund it with tariff revenues, whilst the Democrats conceive a sovereign wealth fund that might take stakes in firms in strategic industries, which is a very French idea (recalling the ‘strategic yoghurt policy’ of 2005). The flaw in this particular idea, is that there is in fact no money to capitalise such a fund.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In stark contrast, I recall the last time Washington pondered a sovereign wealth fund was at the end of the Clinton presidency, when Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin had in a financial ‘end of history’ moment, engineered a fiscal surplus (government earning more than it is spending). At the time, the sense was that surpluses would feed a ‘social security’ sovereign wealth fund, which would allow Americans to enjoy a prosperous retirement.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What is striking is that if you look at the history of America’s financial health, the Rubin/Clinton surplus is an anomalous blip. Since then, the US has registered nearly a quarter of a century of deficits, which irregardless of the level of growth of the economy,&lt;a href=&quot;https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; seem to get bigger (relative to the economy) every year.&lt;/a&gt; These burgeoning deficits are starting to take their toll on the US (and I should mention many other large developed economies – Britain and France prominently so), as its debt level rises beyond 100% to GDP (expected to hit 122% in 2035). It is a very odd situation. In textbook economics, large deficits tend to exist in times of war, recession or crisis. As such, if any of these occurs, there will be scant room for governments to help the economy (and rescue plans may become a trial of strength of central banks).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That’s not all. Readers will sense that I am writing more and more about indebtedness, and it is indeed becoming a preoccupation of mine. The idea of the ‘Age of Debt’ is that debt is becoming pervasive, and as a factor will weigh on geopolitics, the tenor of political debates and the shaping of the financial markets of the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context, once we get beyond the rise of election campaigns and into 2025, governments will have to jettison dreams of sovereign wealth funds and instead subject themselves to debt sustainability analysis. It is akin to a household giving up a dream of buying a second home as their bank manager demands that the mortgage and credit card balance are paid off first.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Debt sustainability analysis is one of those arcane activities in economics, and I can count at least three friends who can run their own debt sustainability models, which is not something I should readily admit. The essence of debt sustainability analysis is that the future debt load (and its precariousness) of a country are driven by a set of factors – the rate at which a government spends, the inflation adjusted interest rate it pays, growth and demographics. These factors are inter-related – borrowing that is deployed to productive investment can produce growth and thus reduce the risks associated with debt for instance. Today, the rapid acceleration in the indebtedness of many countries, low growth and ebbing demographics are some of the factors that make debt increasingly unsustainable.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If that was a reasonably technical explanation, the best parallel I can think of to communicate debt sustainability is climate sustainability – or at least both sets of analysis point to a world that is heating up, and where there is relatively little reaction to this. Debt and climate sustainability analyses are long-term processes, and my sense is that governments gladly ignore them, until they become immediately problematic.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That is beginning to happen. France’s bond spread (over Germany) is elevated, and British bond yields are close to 4%. Neither country can afford to increase debt levels. The same is true for Canada. In the US, next February will see the installation of the new Treasury Secretary, and he or she will have the difficult task of telling the next President that there is no money in the kitty.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As such, the establishment of sovereign wealth funds is a distant, fluffy dream for most governments. A violent lesson here is that Ireland had a sovereign wealth fund in the early 2000’s, but it was swallowed up in the consequences of the euro-zone financial crisis, and is only now being re-established.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For those sovereign wealth funds that exist – in Norway or Saudi Arabia – the next trade may not be to buy quoted equities and private equity, but to either buy the discounted debt of developed countries when they have their sustainability crisis, or to engage in private lending to them. When that happens, a new shift in geoeconomic power will be under way.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Sovereign Debt Funds

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 16th September, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/IVYhODn3Dzs?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;In summary:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It’s a very busy week on the macro front as some big central banks will be making interest rate calls. Up first is the Federal Reserve, who will make an interest rate decision on the 18th, the following day, the Bank of England will make an interest rate call. And finally, on the 20th, inflation data in Japan will be released along with a Bank of Japan interest rate call.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One earnings report to look out for this week is FedEx, which will release its Q1 2025 earnings on the 19th. The transportation and e-commerce business is classed as a ‘bellweather’ stock and is often used as a gauge the overall strength of the US economy. On the same day, British clothes retailer Next Plc will post their Q2 earnings whilst General Mills will post their results on the 18th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Chinese 10-year yield reached 2.07% over the last week, its lowest level in history, as the economy continues to stumble. There is an expectation that the Chinese government will have to introduce further stimulus measures in an effort to spark growth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCIWCDZOP3TBBQLIX7Y6CIASM4FQ?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxqV&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCIWCDZOP3TBBQLIX7Y6CIASM4FQ&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;chart of week.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Equities Chart&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MC57RY5TDTZZADJLJ76WJINKJNRU?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxqa&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MC57RY5TDTZZADJLJ76WJINKJNRU&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;equities.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Bonds Charts&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCSUCD4BVSQBHZLN7PR2KEZ2RZJY?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxqf&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCSUCD4BVSQBHZLN7PR2KEZ2RZJY&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;bonds.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 16th September 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Next week the Federal Reserve will very likely cut interest rates, for the first time since the COVID related rate cutting cycle. Recall of course that at the end of this speedy sets of cuts, most of the leading central banks had declared inflation to be ‘transitory’. The Fed cut will come on the back of a series of rate cuts from ‘elder’ central banks – the Bank of England, Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank, as well as the European Central Bank from whom we had another rate cut last week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The anticipated move by the Federal Reserve is instructive in several respects. Market based interest rates are lower than Fed rates and many investors expect (or rather crave) the Fed to make a 50 basis point cut, as opposed to a ‘standard’ one of 25 basis points. This is yet another sign of monetary addiction – the result of the conditioning of investors to financial liquidity. In mid-August, following a dip in the stock market, I wrote that the idea of the ‘Fed put’ – the notion that the Fed would react to a fall in asset prices by cutting rates – is very much alive in markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The market dip led several seasoned and apparently credible investors to call for an emergency cut in rates. However, the Fed has only ever taken such dramatic action in the thick of deep crises (LTCM/Russian economic collapse, the &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/dot.com__;!!O22_8FOSssc!n93_x9tgNzXgcJj32jmBktfQDQ32cMgOg6eNjoW6aAzCD4zetXuDqHaCIZ3BFl-x88ULD8Qa2w93iMjO_mlwNyNs$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;dot.com&lt;/a&gt; collapse, 9/11, the global financial crisis and the COVID crisis). Similarly, it has not begun a rate cutting cycle with a 50 basis point cut, outside of financial crises. There is no financial crisis today (though plenty of mounting financial risks such as very high debt levels), but a crisis of expectations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That crisis of expectations is at play as investors position for the Fed meeting next week. In my experience, the Fed is, in normal economic conditions, a cautious and slow-moving beast, and it would be untypical for them to begin a rate cutting phase with an outsized rate cut. To do so would suggest that they are in a hurry to correct a mistake of their own making.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;To that extent, investor behaviour that demands a 50-basis point cut, recalls the quip from Paul Samuelson, the first winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, that the market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Set against this apparent concern by investors (do they fear a recession or desire lower rates?) is a debate around a relatively new economic rule of thumb called the Sahm Rule, named after research by economist Claudia Sahm at the Federal Reserve. Her rule states that when the medium-term unemployment rate rises an impending recession is signalled (the three month average of unemployment needs to rise by 50 basis points). It is a surprisingly simple rule that appears to have prefigured eleven US downturns going back to 1953. Sahm’s aim in establishing a reliable rule was that stimulus checks can be sent out at the outset of recessions (as opposed to waiting for GDP data to indicate a recession).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I am tempted to trump the Sahm Rule with two observations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is Goodhart’s Law, named after Bank of England and LSE economist Charles Goodhart which states that ‘when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure’, or more colloquially that fame kills a good model.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;More seriously, most of the last ten business cycles were conventional ones, whereas this business cycle bears the scars of reversing demographics, the lingering effects of COVID fiscal policy and labour market distortions (work from home) not to mention the contortions of strategic industrial policy (i.e. the CHIP’s Act, Inflation Reduction Act) and the political ramifications of high inflation and immigration. It is anything but a typical business cycle, and very hard to read.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Somewhat unusually at this stage in the cycle government finances are weak (from France to the US) whilst the large corporates of the Western world are in a generally healthy financial state. Of the major economies, China poses the greatest risk to the downside in the near-term.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;With different components of the US economy moving in different directions, my expectation is for a slowdown than a deeper recession (this may eventually come at the end of 2025 if inflation rises again). Equally, I expect the Fed to make a series of rate cuts rather than deep cutting cycle. If that view is correct, the interest rates market will be very volatile, as investors periodically over react to data points and price in ‘booms’ and busts’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Expect a market tantrum next week with investors complaining that the Fed is behind the curve. Samuelson would tell us that the curve has got it wrong.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;