&lt;h1&gt;News &amp;amp; Insights&lt;/h1&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;Pictured above at the&amp;nbsp;Unio Wealth Management launch on Tuesday, 30th May at Hayfield Manor L-R: Eamon Dwyer, Private Client Adviser; Des McGarry, Managing Director; Josephine Cussen, Private Client Adviser; and, John Lucey, Director, Unio Wealth Management.&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;The following article was published in the Irish Examiner on Friday, 2nd June 2023 in a feature about the launch of Unio Wealth Management. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/sfc/p/7Q000006G3wg/a/7Q000000HHGD/v7s01B1KpM31H7oBMtTKJWoHfMhlLJpUt7IWZ4HaCTE&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;You may access the full article here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;The debt ceiling debate in America is a reminder that with interest rates rising world debt levels are still too high, and that credit stress will at some stage return to markets. This may lead many to imagine that Ireland could suffer another debilitating downturn – psychologically consumers and investors often expect a repeat of the last crisis, and in particular the euro-zone crisis is still etched deep on memories.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland however is most likely to ‘fail to fail’ in the sense that its economy and financial system are more robust than before, and in the context of a global downturn, it would likely be one of the relatively better off economies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, the fact that the economy has de-risked post the collapse of the Celtic Tiger does not mean it is better or more dynamic. Indeed, the fact that policy makers have been in crisis mode for the last twelve years – euro-zone crisis, housing and COVID crises – has obscured a number of structural changes and deficiencies in the economy.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One that is pronounced is the fact that Ireland has become a relatively wealthy country in a short space of time, though the investment infrastructure that would normally exist to support and channel that level of wealth has not yet been built and this may be one reason why Irish people are so driven to invest in property and why cash levels are also very high.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If we measure wealth as the value of property (less debt) and financial investments, then average wealth per adult in Ireland is close to USD 260,000, roughly the same as Japan and Germany, and just below the UK according to data from Professor Tony Shorrocks and Prof Jim Davies. Wealth in the US is much higher, at close to USD 600,000 while Switzerland is the country with the wealthiest people, with wealth per adult close to USD 700,000. It is also worth mentioning that nearly half the world&#39;s rich or ultra-high net worth individuals live in the US.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On the other hand, China has wealth per adult of close to USD 76,000 which has risen quickly over the past twenty years and unlike other emerging economies such as India, Chinese wealth is broadly distributed across a large, emerging middle class.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland is undergoing a wealth evolution for a number of reasons – the economic structure of the country has changed under the steam of globalisation, the role of multinationals has brought expertise to Ireland and has also made executives wealthy through access to stock based compensation. For example, Apple with a large plant in Cork is some sixty times the size of Ford, the largest employer there in the 1980’s. In addition, Irish entrepreneurs are much better at starting and sustaining businesses and taking these to other marketplaces.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, there has been a sizeable effect on wealth in Ireland through the rise in property prices, and in the case of most countries – usually emerging markets – that undergo a wealth evolution, wealth inequality rises. In Ireland’s case the rise in property prices is spilling over as economists like to put it and creating social problems.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is one issue that underlines that Ireland does not have a well-developed investment infrastructure, nor does it have a coherent, working framework for such an infrastructure. The same could be said for its defence and security infrastructure – and the point of this is to emphasise the fact that change in Ireland’s economy and society have been so sudden, that it has not built up the infrastructure to accommodate that, that we would find in other peer small advanced economies like Denmark, Sweden or Singapore.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;The role of an investment infrastructure is ideally, to channel money from Irish savings to investment in the domestic economy, and to an extent also give Irish investors access to returns on international investments. As such, if we count the number of wealth managers, private equity and venture capital firms in Ireland, not to mention digital wealth managers, they are very few – again compared to other peer economies.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are a number of reasons as to why this investment infrastructure has so far been stunted – one is a general lack of expertise and experience. A second has been the shock that the economic crisis in Ireland has had on the financial system in terms of the willingness to innovate and the provision of capital to do so. A related factor is regulation, which again in the aftermath of the crisis has been strict.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, there are some good examples of state led investment infrastructure – such as the state investment fund (ISIF), and the proposal to once again set up an Irish sovereign wealth fund.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As Ireland emerges from multiple crises, it is time to think broadly in terms of infrastructure building. In the case of investment infrastructure there are a few components to focus on.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is that several other small economies (from Switzerland’s ‘Finanzplatz’ to Singapore to the UAE) have plans or frameworks for how they want to develop their financial centres and operationalise this in terms of skill sets and regulation. These are generally more complete than what Irish policy makers have in place and are a good guide as our financial sector moves very broadly from fund administration to investment management proper. Indeed, many of these smaller financial centres are more pertinent examples for Ireland than London, where the City is still digesting the side effects of Brexit.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another element is to improve financial education and literacy (the central bank is beginning to drive this) in the context of an economy where many people feel put off discussing investments, or at the other extreme where there is a culture of speculation. Culturally, wealth is not something we feel at ease discussing. Given that this is effectively the first time that Ireland is seeing an intergenerational transfer of wealth, the need to support these debates is critical, not least in the light of the housing crisis and the high exposure of the economy to foreign direct investment.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a final point there are a number of further areas where policy makers can steer the development of a much more developed and forward-looking investment infrastructure. One example is to take the idea of strategic autonomy – that Europe needs to have competences in key sectors like green energy and semiconductors – and ask what role Ireland plays in this in terms of the sectors it seeks to develop, and then look to craft investment infrastructure such as ‘green lending’ around this.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan, international investment expert, is a board director and strategic adviser at Unio Wealth Management.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you want to find out more, talk to your adviser or contact us at&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Disruptive New Player in Irish Wealth Advice Market

&lt;p&gt;The debt ceiling debate has kicked off, and the great difference this time is the extreme levels of polarisation across the political divide in the US.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The debt ceiling stems from a provision in the constitution that states that only Congress can authorise borrowing on behalf of the US, and a 1917 act stipulates a limit on this debt (today’s limit is USD 31.4 trillion), that can be adjusted by consent of Congress. Today’s higher interest rates complicates matters – the US spends more on interest payments than defence.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Presidents with a friendly Congress (for instance George W Bush received eight debt ceiling increases) do not need to worry much about this fiscal hurdle, however it becomes weaponised in the face of a ‘cohabitation’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The debt ceiling debate has gotten a little out of control before. Memorably for investors in 2011, as the deadline approached, the US debt was downgraded by S&amp;amp;P from AAA to AA+, provoking a slide in markets. In 2013, the debt ceiling debate ran right to the limit.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There is no reason for the debt ceiling to be a market issue, except for perhaps three questions – the willingness of markets to participate in the ‘debt’ theatre, the historic levels of bitterness across the American political spectrum, and an amalgam of economic faultlines, the most pressing of which is weakness in the US regional banking sector.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The timing of any debt ceiling imbroglio will depend on the exact moment that the Treasury runs out of money. Janet Yellen has stated that this could happen in early June but interest rate and money market pricing suggests close to July for a default event.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3 style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Our View: 3 Scenarios&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Bi-partisanship (15%) &lt;/strong&gt;– President Joe Biden, when he was a senator, was renowned for his bi-partisanship and the friendships he cultivated on both sides of the House. That era is gone now, and American politics is radicalised. Under current party structures, there is no incentive – absent an external threat – for politicians to come together and pragmatically pass a ceiling increase. That is why this ‘grown-up’ scenario is a low probability. Indeed, the only thing that might send the Democrats and Republicans rushing into each other’s arms is a banking crisis.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chicken (70%) &lt;/strong&gt;– in this scenario, the Democrats and Republicans bicker till the last minute, with the Republicans trying to curb the spending power of the administration as a quid pro quo for voting the debt ceiling increase. The important element here is how complicit markets are – if we see a spike in equity volatility, a deepening of the credit crunch and loud warnings of the ‘end of the dollar’ and American financial hegemony, then a ceiling rise will be passed. Overhanging this is the risk of a credit crunch and a periphery crisis in banking. The risks could very easily become the real problem and dwarf the ceiling debate. Two other factors to note here are that a drawn out ceiling debate will result in less market liquidity in Q3 and an eventual deal might produce a minor, negative fiscal shock.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Cliff-hanger (15%) &lt;/strong&gt;– the risk here is that enough Republicans (i.e. McCarthy) are in thrall to Donald Trump that they are willing to do to America’s financial reputation what he has done to American democracy, and that a historic default becomes likely. Such a scenario is not as wild as we might have thought six years ago, but it would likely be preceded by the enacting of Treasury emergency financing plans and stern words from the Chair of the Federal Reserve. A formal default may not happen, but it could come close.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Global Macro Council (GMC)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With the investment climate and world economy challenged by high interest rates and inflation, to name but two risks, Unio Wealth Management has spent time and attention upgrading our investment process for a changed world. In terms of new governance, we have created the Global Macro Council (GMC) to analyse macroeconomic developments and explain the impact on investments. The GMC is a body of experts, strategists and client facing advisers that craft the Unio house view on the macroeconomic outlook. Meeting monthly, the Council produces the Global Macro Council Report.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you want to find out more, talk to your adviser or contact us at &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Demystifying the Debt Ceiling Debate

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Global Macro Council Outlook – May 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;&quot;Mighty Dollar? With the dollar having dropped back from highs in recent months, and talk in the press growing about the end of the dollar, this month our Global Macro Council (GMC) discusses the outlook for currencies.&quot; &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://bit.ly/3o4p0ev&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Global Macro Council (GMC)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With the investment climate and world economy&amp;nbsp;challenged by high interest rates and inflation, to name but two risks, Unio Wealth Management has spent time and attention upgrading our investment process for a changed world.&amp;nbsp;In terms of new governance, we have created the&lt;strong&gt; Global Macro Council (GMC)&lt;/strong&gt; to analyse macroeconomic developments and explain the impact on investments. The GMC is a body of experts, strategists and client facing advisers that craft the Unio house view on the macroeconomic outlook.&amp;nbsp;Meeting monthly, the Council produces the Global Macro Council Report.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you want to find out more, talk to your adviser or contact us at&lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

The Global Macro Council Outlook: May 2023

&lt;p&gt;There likely needs to be a bigger debate on the role of Ireland’s investment infrastructure as the basis to support our domestic economic growth, according to international investment expert and strategic adviser to Unio, Mike O’Sullivan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland is returning to normal following the historic visit of US President Joe Biden two weeks ago, he said. “One of the important contributions of the visit came from the Ceann Comhairle Séan Ó Fearghaíl who hailed Ireland ‘as a multicultural, progressive nation benefiting enormously from an inflow of immigrants who have arrived on our shores from across the world’.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Doubtless Donald Trump will also take note of this on his coming visit, but the statement underlies the dramatic way Ireland has changed since the rise of globalisation in the 1990s.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;O’Sullivan said that very few other countries have changed as much as Ireland has, apart from the Asian ‘Tigers’, select Baltic states, Chile and the Gulf States.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“While some of these have relatively large, powerful financial centres, Ireland has not and there is a sense that the change in our economy and society has not been matched by a growth in infrastructure across a range of areas – security and defence is a notable one, as is housing and the way we welcome migrants. Wealth and asset management is another example,” O’Sullivan said.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Investment infrastructure needed&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;According to the most recent Credit Suisse Wealth Report, Ireland now has roughly the same wealth per adult as Germany, Austria and Japan, and just below that of the UK (calculated as property, investments less debt).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;O’Sullivan said that compared to peer countries Ireland has far fewer private equity firms, venture capital houses and wealth and asset managers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“In general, its investment infrastructure is not yet well developed. This matters because these investment firms effectively form the pipelines that transmit savings into productive investments and in particular should make capital available to fuel a vibrant domestic economy,” he said.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“It is well known that our economy remains overly reliant on investment by multinationals, and that there is over-investment in property, and, arguably, cash deposits are also very high. Ideally, there should be more Irish wealth invested in international, diversified portfolios.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“The lack of wealth infrastructure contributes to an imbalanced economy: the domestic industrial sector is not yet big enough and of course overallocation to housing is causing a national crisis.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;He said that this is effectively the first generation of ‘wealthy’ Irish people – those who have built wealth from creating business and through their careers. Notably, women are a big part of this.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Specifically, the Credit Suisse Wealth report estimates that there are over 176,000 adults in Ireland with net wealth over $1 million. This is a relatively large number of people, the majority of whom may not regard themselves as ‘wealthy’, but when the value of pensions, property, business interests and investments is added together this leads to a significant amount in many cases.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“As such, there are many Irish people who are ‘under-advised’ in terms of their wealth, and this points to a growing need for a more developed investment infrastructure in Ireland. What is also needed is a new way of thinking about and discussing wealth. There are perhaps two points to emphasise here.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Demystifying markets&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;O’Sullivan said that investment is an odd area where normally clever and well-informed people ‘freeze’. “For example, in 2018 a study undertaken for Bank of America found that 61 per cent of women would rather talk about their own death than money. And, when it comes to money, women are more honest and open than men.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“In that context, there is a great challenge for asset and wealth managers to on one hand be rigorous in investing people’s capital, but very importantly to ‘demystify’ markets and be very clear in telling clients what they are doing with their money.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;He said that the way we talk about wealth needs to change. “We need to become more open, and there likely needs to be a bigger debate on the role of wealth in Ireland as the basis for domestic economic growth and the way it influences the society we want. Wealth inequality, and investment into more sustainable ‘new economy’ sectors, are just two emerging facets of this debate.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;End of globalisation&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Joining the two of these topics is the idea of wealth continuity – or the passing of wealth from the current to the next generation, which is a passage that can cross different types of investment strategy (from property to impact-led investment) and very different levels of investment literacy.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Looming over the trend of emerging wealth in Ireland, and over our economy, is the very big picture issue of the end of globalisation. “As one of the most globalised economies in the world, the fact that high inflation, rising interest rates and war in Europe have ruptured globalisation should be a profound worry,” he said.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“In the asset and wealth management industries, these elements are playing out in a volatile way – witness the near collapse of the UK pension system last autumn and the way in which persistently high rates are stressing the banking sector.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“This kind of investment climate requires careful navigation and will likely continue to disrupt pockets of the financial sector globally and corners of the world economy. It heightens the need for good investment advice.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;O’Sullivan said that, given the likelihood that this uncertainty proves enduring – for example, that high interest rates are here to stay and that the technology sector is disrupted and complicated by geo-politics – in the context of a still very underdeveloped investment sector in Ireland, we must think carefully about the investment infrastructure the country needs and then map this out.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;lt;Ends&amp;gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;This article appeared in the Business Post on Sunday, 30th April, 2023. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Access the article here: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial-reports/ireland-needs-a-debate-on-investment-infrastructure-and-wealth-management/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Ireland needs a debate on infrastructure and wealth management.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you want to find out more, talk to your adviser or contact us at info@unio.ie.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Ireland needs a debate on investment infrastructure and wealth management

&lt;p&gt;With the investment climate and world economy&amp;nbsp;challenged by high interest rates and inflation, to name but two risks, Unio Wealth Management has spent time and attention on upgrading our investment process for a changed world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In terms of new governance, we have created the Global Macro Council (GMC) to analyse macroeconomic developments and explain the impact on investments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The GMC is a body of experts, strategists and client facing advisers that craft the Unio house view on the macroeconomic outlook.&amp;nbsp;Meeting monthly, the Council produces the Global Macro Council Report.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The GMC Outlook for April 2023 may be accessed via the link below:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Global Macro Council Outlook – April 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;“The macro outlook is shifting. While inflation is ebbing from high levels, fears of a recession are mounting, and institutions like the IMF and the Federal Reserve are warning of this.”&amp;nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://sforce.co/40RPbCN&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you want to find out more, talk to your adviser or contact us at info@unio.ie.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

The Global Macro Council Outlook: April 2023

&lt;h3&gt;Unio Wealth Management officially unveiled today&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Dublin, April 19th, 2023:&lt;/em&gt; A new wealth management advisory firm of significant scale, heritage and expertise has today been unveiled. Called &lt;strong&gt;Unio Wealth Management&lt;/strong&gt;, the firm, which is part of global finance giant Great-West Lifeco through its Irish operation Irish Life Group, brings together the highly successful businesses of Invesco, Acumen &amp;amp; Trust and APT into a single entity with enhanced advisory, investment and client solutions. The firm aims to foster the growth of intergenerational wealth continuity in Ireland through the delivery of global investment solutions bespoke to the specific needs of clients.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Significant scale, market opportunity and business ambition: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Already a firm of significant scale with long and enduring client relationships, Unio employs 250 people in Dublin, Cork and Limerick, with 130 focused on personal clients. The business currently oversees c. €14bn of assets on behalf of personal and corporate clients and plans to grow this position to €20bn by 2027.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having a deep understanding of the current and evolving investment and advisory needs of clients, Unio recognises that wealth in Ireland is growing at a significant rate and there is a substantial requirement for grounded expert advice to thousands of individuals who are currently either under-advised, or not being advised at all on the effective management of their wealth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;A disruptive presence in the Irish Wealth Management Sector: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Addressing the growing size of assets in Ireland requiring advice, Unio aims to be a disruptive presence in the Irish Wealth Management sector. The business has developed rigorous and robust investment process solutions that are tailored to meet specific client needs and bring a full range of international investment solutions (in public and private markets) to clients.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio’s approach will seek to educate people about wealth and investment in an open and inclusive way. The business’ growth strategy is centred on the basis of existing significant marketplace access, an enhanced client proposition, a personal, bespoke approach to client advice, underpinned by a market leading digital platform driven by data and insights that empowers clients to oversee and take better control of their wealth. Supporting this is a responsible approach to investing i.e., a positive outcome across the board – for the investor and their families, and for society and the environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Respected and expert advisers in tandem with market leading digital capability: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The bringing together of several successful wealth management firms provides Unio with a multifaceted pool of experienced, respected, and leading wealth management advisors. In tandem with one-to-one personalised client advisory relationships, the business provides a unique and market-leading digital experience that also guides clients in the decision-making process. The Unio client portal, which was developed based on the global expertise of Great-West Lifeco and was recently launched to existing clients, is an empowering tool providing daily updates and personalised content, thereby allowing clients to know the position of all their assets at any point in time. This allows clients monitor their investments and allows real time conversations, thereby ensuring optimal decisions are taken. This is a significant point of differentiation for Unio and its advisory approach.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Client profile: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Headquartered in Dublin with a presence in Cork and Limerick, Unio’s clients are based across the country. The profile of Unio’s current clients represent corporate Ireland – entrepreneurs, business owners, SME companies, professional services, and executives in multinational and indigenous firms. Many of these clients are on a trajectory to transition their assets to the next generation. Clients are generally those with in excess of €1m of investible assets, however, Unio, as an open and inclusive wealth manager takes the view that that individuals who are on a journey to accumulating wealth also need grounded advice.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Commenting on the establishment of Unio, Miċeál Gunning, Head of Private Clients at Unio (formerly Head of Private Clients at Invesco) said:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;“Unio has a deep understanding of our clients and their specific needs.&lt;/em&gt; &lt;em&gt;Given the evolution of wealth in Ireland over the past number of decades, and that Ireland only started to materially grow in the late 1990s, there is an historic, generational transfer of wealth underway. Combine this with the fact that Ireland, as Europe’s fastest growing economy, has the same average wealth per adult as France and Germany, tens of thousands of people require advice and support to optimally manage their wealth. Now is the right and opportune time to establish a wealth management and advisory business of significant scale to guide and coach investors in Ireland on wealth preservation and growth in an open, bespoke manner. Essentially, we are seeking to demystify wealth and investment by educating on the drivers of wealth, markets and investments in a long-term context.” &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;He added:&lt;em&gt; “This is not about luring clients away from other wealth management firms. The fact is, there are so few people taking financial advice in Ireland. It is the nature of the market currently, which presents an opportunity for a new advisory-led player like Unio.”&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;“We believe wealth management should be open, inclusive, not closed and exclusive. This is about servicing individuals who need advice on the management of their wealth, particularly when you see almost a trillion euro sitting on deposit in Ireland, when you see the growth of people with assets in excess of €1m, households with annual income in excess of €200,000 and the transfer of wealth to the next generation.&amp;nbsp;By limiting the vulnerabilities of clients’ portfolios to risk cycles, by strategic thinking and risk framing of international markets, Unio will avoid the historic boom/bust outcomes for our clients.” &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;He concluded:&lt;em&gt; “We are confident that through our expertise, innovative solutions, personalised service and digital capabilities, Unio will be recognised as a trusted partner for those seeking a different wealth advisory offering.” &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Unio Wealth Management officially unveiled today

&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for the Year Ahead&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Introduction&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2022 was a landmark year in that it saw the return of a range of forces that have largely been absent during the period of globalisation namely, inflation, high interest rates and war. 2023 will show whether these will persist and become regular features of the landscape or are aberrations.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two key trends marked 2022 – the war in Ukraine catalysed inflation and the full emergence of strategic competition between the major regions, and central banks embarked on a course of aggressive rate hikes. The former will shape investment and geopolitical trends into 2023, as we have seen with the Inflation Reduction Act in the US and increased defence spending globally, while the effects of the latter will increasingly be felt at the level of companies, households and state balance sheets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, there is a broadly felt view that the world order is changing and that the world economy is entering a period of great uncertainty, albeit in the context of strong employment and, in many cases healthy balance sheets. Here, Ireland is much less vulnerable than it was over ten years ago, and arguably its problems will be socio-economic rather than financial.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We initially published this note at the start of the year and refresh it with the launch of Unio Wealth Management. Our sense that 2023 could be a dramatic year has so far been borne out – the Windsor framework will likely bring calm to Brexit, and high interest rates have created a difficult environment for banks – Silicon Valley Bank has failed, and Credit Suisse has been taken over by UBS.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our motivation in producing this note is driven by two forces. One is the changing world- more than ever before in the past forty years, the sense that the world is changing rapidly and often chaotically is clear. This demands strategic thinking.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second is the complexity of this change - economics, markets, politics and geopolitics are intertwined and need to be thought of as such. These changes touch all countries, not least an open economy like Ireland’s and investors, business people and policy makers need to be attuned to them.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such we set out, and revisit what we consider the leading economic, financial and political factors through 2023 – describe them, their economic and investment impact, and their relevance for investors and companies in Ireland.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-effects-of-persistently-high-interest-rates&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENTLY HIGH INTEREST RATES&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Rates will remain high for some time and this trend can ‘discover’ many risks and provoke fault lines, especially amongst overleveraged companies, banks and economies.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/will-we-see-a-credit-crisis&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;WILL WE SEE A CREDIT CRISIS?&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Under this lower probability, more extreme scenario, a cocktail of falling growth, still high inflation and interest rates, and the inability of central banks to ‘come to the rescue’ could lead to a sharp rise in credit risk.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;3. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/ireland-fails-to-fail-but-no-bailouts&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;IRELAND FAILS TO FAIL, BUT NO BAILOUTS&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Amidst a global downturn, Ireland’s economy and financial sector prove more robust than many think.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;4. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-politics-of-inflation&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;THE POLITICS OF INFLATION&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Persistently high or ‘sticky’ inflation creates the expectation that governments intervene in markets, and with households to cushion the blow of higher prices.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;5. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/what-does-strategic-autonomy-look-like&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;WHAT DOES STRATEGIC AUTONOMY LOOK LIKE?&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Intense strategic competition between the US and China creates the need for Europe to be ‘autonomous’ in key industries (i.e. green energy) – what role will Ireland play here?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;6. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/theme-6-the-trials-of-globalisation&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;THE TRIALS OF GLOBALISATION&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Globalization is at worst, over, or at least changing. What does this mean for highly globalized countries like Ireland?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;7. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/digital-money-grows-up-web-3-enthralls&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;DIGITAL MONEY GROWS UP, WEB 3 ENTHRALLS&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Crypto has suffered as liquidity has drained – it may just be a fad. Digital central bank currencies are however something we will hear more about.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;8. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/theme-8-democracy-fights-back&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;DEMOCRACY FIGHTS BACK&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2022 was a bad year for autocrats, and there are signs that the ‘centre’ of politics is holding.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;9. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/brexit-peters-out&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;BREXIT PETERS OUT&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Brexit may, for a change, see a period of calm and pragmatism and may be less disruptive.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;10. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/geopolitical-risk-matters-again&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;GEOPOLITICAL RISK MATTERS AGAIN&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Geopolitical risk is back with effects felt in commodities, currencies and bond markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Get in touch with us by emailing &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt; or talk to your adviser.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember, if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Ten Themes for the Year Ahead

&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the start of each year Unio Wealth Management will present what we consider to be the leading economic, financial and political factors that will influence the year ahead.&amp;nbsp;Throughout the year we will revisit these themes and assess the impact for investors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We will discuss each of our &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/10-themes-impacting-investors-and-companies-in-ireland-in-2023&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;individually and describe the relevance for investors and companies in Ireland. By doing this, we hope to enable investors to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact their investments.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike O’Sullivan, Chair of the Unio Global Macro Council and Investment Committee, Ger Fitzgerald, Head of Investment Strategy and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions will lead on these discussions.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Theme 1: The Effects of Persistently High Interest Rates&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this clip the team expands on this theme, and examines the impact on economy, markets and investment decisions in 2023.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://player.vimeo.com/video/826109125/&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Summary Text&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;End of globalisation&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;During 2022 we experienced a persistent rise in inflation, rising interest rates and unfortunate conflicts such as the war in Ukraine. These factors effectively marked the end of the period of globalisation. Now, as we enter a phase of greater uncertainty, it is essential that investors remain informed and ensure that their investment strategies adapt to this new environment. Mike O’Sullivan, Chair of the Investment Committee, expands on this theme in the context of the effects of persistent high interest rates.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The speed with which interest rates have risen has been shocking, and while inflation might have peaked, rates will be high for some time (5% plus in the USA). A persistently high level of interest rates can ‘discover’ many risks and provoke fault lines with banking stress complicating the situation further. One of the key themes we are looking at this year is the effects of persistent high-interest rates. This has been front of mind since the end of last year and continues to be a significant concern for investors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Getting used to higher interest rates&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Over the past decade the global economy has benefited from very low interest rates, and it is now getting used to the new environment. In response to changing macro factors, central banks raised interest rates throughout 2022, a lot faster than many commentators anticipated. The impact of this on governments and corporate entities who need to roll over debt means it is now at a more expensive cost.&amp;nbsp;This in turn has an impact on corporate profitability and revenue and budgeting from governments.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Although we cannot ignore the impact of higher interest rates, we must put this in perspective. Rates are coming off historical lows.&amp;nbsp;We are not back to the 1980s when interest rates were trending in or around 15%.&amp;nbsp;However, the sharp rise in yields during 2022 has had a significant impact on how we look at markets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Will rates keep rising?&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The latest Fed’s Dot Plot chart is a useful reference point as it takes a longer-term view of interest rates in the US.&amp;nbsp;Here at Unio, we expect the Fed to make one or two more rate increases this year, with a slight chance of a rate cut at the end of the year.&amp;nbsp;While that may sound boring, the actual economic effect of this can be quite dramatic because the world is not set up for a period of prolonged high interest rates.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are many businesses and economies that have become used to cheap money and low interest rates. However, as rates persist at a higher level, it will take its toll.&amp;nbsp;The net effect, from an investor&#39;s perspective, will be to see a stark win or lose effect between companies and economies that are cash rich and stable versus those that have a lot of debt and perhaps lack robust cash flow. Weaker banks have already succumbed (SVB, CS) and this complicates the role of central banks and arguably leads to more short-term liquidity in the system.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Our view&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary, 2022 saw the return of a range of forces that have largely been absent during the period of globalisation namely inflation, high interest rates and, war.&amp;nbsp;Whether these will be persist and become regular features of the landscape or are aberrations has yet to play out. It is likely that interest rates will be high for some time and investors will need to get used to this new environment. Persistently high interest rates will have a polarising effect, with stable, cash-rich economies likely to benefit, while those with high debt and weak cash flow will be adversely impacted.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you want to find out more, talk to your adviser or contact us at &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Theme 1: The Effects of Persistently High Interest Rates

&lt;h2&gt;10 Themes For The Year Ahead&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the start of each year Unio Wealth Management will present what we consider to be the leading economic, financial and political factors that will influence the year ahead. Throughout the year we will revisit these themes and assess the impact for investors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We will discuss each of our &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/10-themes-impacting-investors-and-companies-in-ireland-in-2023&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;individually and describe the relevance for investors and companies in Ireland. By doing this, we hope to enable investors to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact their investments.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike O’Sullivan, Chair of the Unio Global Macro Council and Investment Committee, Ger Fitzgerald, Head of Investment Strategy and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions will lead on these discussions&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Theme 2: Will we see a credit crisis?&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Theme No.1 discussed &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-effects-of-persistently-high-interest-rates&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;The Effects of Persistently High Interest Rates&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;In this article, we examine the potential occurrence of a credit crisis, stemming from sustained high interest rates and how this theme will manifest in 2023.&amp;nbsp;Historically every Fed tightening cycle has been met with some form of economic crisis, an emerging market crisis, etc. However, a full-blown global credit crisis, like we saw to dramatic effect in 2008 is unlikely and a low probability event for 2023.&amp;nbsp;What is more likely is more localised bouts of stress in countries like China, where consumer and corporate debt is very high and where the property market looks vulnerable.&amp;nbsp;The world is de-globalising and while China is not financially linked to the West there are parts of the Chinese,&amp;nbsp;European and&amp;nbsp;US economies, where the cost of leverage will increase, and this will become evident in credit spreads.&amp;nbsp;However, by and large these issues will be localized as opposed to systemic.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The areas the Unio Investment Committee will pay attention to over the next 12 months will be measures of credit stress such as credit spreads; credit default swaps (CDS); and prices of default swap contracts, all highly technical concepts that may become relevant again.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Market Risk&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There may be contrasts between how certain areas of the market will be impacted by credit stress.&amp;nbsp;Higher interest rates and wider credit spreads will be the norm for lower quality corporate or government entities. Localised issues may arise, and investors should be mindful of the risks they take on and ensure that the credit exposure they accept is appropriate for the level of risk they are willing to accept.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Our View&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A more extreme scenario of falling growth, high inflation, high interest rates, and the inability of central banks to ‘come to the rescue’ would lead to a sharp rise in credit risk. The crises at Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse may be portends of this or might mean that regulators and banks themselves work to prevent further fallout.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In a stressed credit environment, central banks may find themselves constrained in what they can do in terms of providing liquidity to the banking system however, perhaps less so to bond markets. Under this scenario credit spreads have much further to widen.&amp;nbsp;The dollar could see another round of strength. Housing in general and other private asset classes more specifically may suffer.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A more optimistic view is that economies and markets need a ‘reset’ and as a result imbalances are cleared away, setting the scene for a prolonged risk rally.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Rates and credit risk will be a real test for Irish government bonds.&amp;nbsp;Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) trends will be split between cash rich firms who should remain strong, versus more recent players with more vulnerable business models.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you want to find out more talk to your adviser or contact us at&lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; info@unio.ie&amp;nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&lt;/p&gt;

Theme 2: Will we see a credit crisis?

&lt;h2&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the start of each year, Unio Wealth Management will present what we consider to be the leading economic, financial and political factors that will influence the year ahead. Throughout the year we will revisit these themes and assess the impact for investors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We will discuss each of our &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/10-themes-impacting-investors-and-companies-in-ireland-in-2023&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;individually and describe the relevance for investors and companies in Ireland. By doing this, we hope to enable investors to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact their investments.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike O’Sullivan, Chair of the Unio Global Macro Council and Investment Committee, Ger Fitzgerald, Head of Investment Strategy and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions will lead on these discussions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Theme 3: Ireland Fails to Fail, But No Bailouts&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this article, we examine how the Irish economy will fare over the next 12 to 24 months.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Ireland’s Economy and Rates&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland has new challenges to face in a period of slowing global growth, higher interest rates and rising credit stress. However, Ireland has strong foundations, and the economy appears to be well positioned to withstand these challenges.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Most of us will remember the last economic crisis and as a result many people may expect it to happen all over again.&amp;nbsp;At Unio, we are using the infamous phrase, that “this time is different”. The fact is that despite higher interest rates and widening credit spreads across the world, the Irish economy and its financial sector will not collapse in the way it did previously. There are plenty of reasons for this. Growth is very strong and structurally the country is robust across a whole range of sectors.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Household cash levels and banking deposits are very high. There is a much bigger Irish domestic growth sector than last time. So structurally, the economy has improved. Policy making has also improved.&amp;nbsp;However, if there is a global recession, we will not escape it, but it will not be the catastrophe the ‘doomsayers’ expect. As a benchmark, we believe that Irish Government debt will trade more in line with that of the Netherlands and France, than Spain,&amp;nbsp;Italy or Greece.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Ireland Vs UK&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland’s GDP growth and economic resilience means that the term credit crisis will not continue to be linked with Ireland. Ireland’s GDP, an indicator of overall economic success, is strong, and its position within the global economy and its resilience, is impressive. This is in stark contrast to the current position of our near neighbours.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is important to note that in today&#39;s world of de-globalisation, countries&#39; economic potential and performance are volatile. One concern post-Brexit is that the UK&#39;s economy has not yet hit its stride, largely due to structural issues such as low productivity and investment. Therefore, investing in the UK&#39;s economy presents a unique case with its own set of considerations. This is something we will cover in future articles.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Our View&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In previous articles, we discussed the themes of &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-effects-of-persistently-high-interest-rates&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;persistently high interest rates&lt;/a&gt; and the &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/will-we-see-a-credit-crisis&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;possibility of a credit crisis&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;depicting a world that is not unlike that of 2010 and the euro-zone crisis. A simple knee-jerk presumption is that the Irish economy, Italy and Greece rolls over and lapses back to policy chaos. We do not think this is the case for Ireland – ‘this time is different’.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Policy has changed, and Ireland’s financial diplomacy is very strong. Notably the domestic sector and newer areas such as technology and pharma are more developed.&amp;nbsp;Debt management is sophisticated, and the banking sector is ‘utility’ like. In addition, Ireland has high savings and fiscal space.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In terms of market implications, we believe that Irish debt continues to trade closer to core countries like France and Belgium. Weakness in the euro-zone economy may be a relative positive in the context of the lack of capacity in the Irish economy.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Compared to 2008 there is not the same excess in Ireland except perhaps rental and house price multiples.&amp;nbsp;There is a broader reserve of wealth and policy expertise, and little question that Ireland would leave the euro. However, while a credit downturn would be trying for the Irish economy, a return to bail-outs is unlikely.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you want to find out more, talk to your adviser or contact us at &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Theme 3: Ireland Fails to Fail, But No Bailouts

&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At the start of each year, Unio Wealth Management will present what we consider to be the leading economic, financial and political factors that will influence the year ahead. Throughout the year we will revisit these themes and assess the impact for investors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;We will discuss each of our &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/10-themes-impacting-investors-and-companies-in-ireland-in-2023&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;individually and describe the relevance for investors and companies in Ireland. By doing this, we hope to enable investors to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact their investments.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike O’Sullivan, Chair of the Unio Global Macro Council and Investment Committee, Ger Fitzgerald, Head of Investment Strategy and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions will lead on these discussions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Theme 4: The Politics of Inflation&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this article, we explore the fourth of our themes: the net effect of inflation, the politics around inflation and the impact for investment decisions in 2023.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3 style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Inflation Drivers&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At the time of writing, inflation rates around the world remain high, however, there are recent signs of a slowdown in the rate of increase in&amp;nbsp;consumer prices. Food and energy are the main drivers. The ongoing war in Ukraine has directly impacted oil, gas and food supply, particularly grain. In turn, these higher prices have impacted manufacturing, transportation, and food costs globally.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Economic Overview&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Sustained higher prices can have considerable social and economic consequences. Certainly, we are seeing this play out not just in Ireland, but across the world. The price of food and energy&amp;nbsp;initially increased because of the impact of Covid and then with&amp;nbsp;the war in Ukraine.&amp;nbsp;Governments will attempt to combat inflation through various measures. In France, there have been violent protests in reaction to food, fuel, and cost of living increases, prompting the government to intervene and soften the blow of rising energy costs. Similarly, the Irish government has assisted businesses and households with energy bills. As inflation remains sticky, we can expect to see various responses, some of which may prove helpful, while others may not be well thought out and could even contribute to inflation. For example, the German government introduced a substantial stimulus package last year, which is effectively the opposite approach taken by the European Central Bank. It is a testing time for Governments around the world, The only silver lining is that it is a testing time for autocrats as well as democracies.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Populist Policies&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One concerning aspect&amp;nbsp;is that inflation can lead to an upsurge of populist positions taken by governments, and that brings its own risk.&amp;nbsp;Income disparity will potentially grow in this environment, and it is a very challenging time for policymakers. Over the past 5 years, under the steam of quantitative easing, wealth inequality has grown quite starkly. In the US it is currently at its most extreme ever. Inflation and the various responses to it and the effect of high interest rates on different types of households has the capacity to increase income inequality. We expect this to be part of the policy package around European countries for the rest of this year, and beyond.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Market Impact&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;2022 saw the re-emergence of inflation and it was an eye opener for a lot of investors after a very benign period. There is much media discussion about inflation falling and while inflation is falling it is still at a substantially increased level compared to recent history.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;From an investment portfolio perspective, certain asset allocations or investment portfolios can be constructed to either mitigate or withstand the effects of inflation. These portfolios generally invest in a range of asset classes that maintain a hedge to inflation. This can be in the form of a natural hedge via infrastructure or the utility sector, or through a specific hedge such as inflation protected government bonds. Commodities like gold have historically proven to be one of the best hedges to inflation. We encourage anyone that wants to have a conversation about this to engage with your Unio adviser to understand how we can help you mitigate inflationary risks.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;2023 Outlook&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Inflation is edging lower, but only at the edges. Service price inflation is strong across the board and at the time of writing European headline inflation is close to 9%. Beyond financial stresses, this creates considerable political problems. There may be an upsurge in populism, one-off taxes and perhaps some inflationary spending packages. Pension systems may also come under pressure, and in this climate, populism may prove an easy avenue towards power. As it stands, inequality of income and wealth in Ireland is close to European average levels, though a period of persistent inflation could expand socio-economic divisions creating acute policy challenges.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If you want to find out more, talk to your adviser or contact us at&lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; info@unio.ie&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Theme 4: The Politics of Inflation

&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At the start of each year, Unio Wealth Management will present what we consider to be the leading economic, financial and political factors that will influence the year ahead. Throughout the year we will revisit these themes and assess the impact for investors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;We will discuss each of our&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/10-themes-impacting-investors-and-companies-in-ireland-in-2023&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; &lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;individually and describe the relevance for investors and companies in Ireland. By doing this, we hope to enable investors to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact their investments.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike O’Sullivan, Chair of the Unio Global Macro Council and Investment Committee, Ger Fitzgerald, Head of Investment Strategy and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions will lead on these discussions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Theme 5: What Does Strategic Autonomy Look Like?&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In this article, we explore the fifth theme of strategic autonomy; how it can empower Europeans to take control of their economic future and highlight the investment opportunities that may arise as a result.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Outlook for 2023&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The strategic rivalry between the US and China, and the geopolitical implications of the war in Ukraine are two of many factors that have awoken European policy makers to the need for Europe to be more independent economically. This theme has been omnipresent since Emmanuel Macron introduced the idea in 2017 and, 2023 could be the year that we see the policy rolled out in Europe.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Economic Interdependence Declines&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Strategic autonomy will manifest over the next few years and will be a long-term trend. We believe this will get going in 2023. In simple terms, ‘strategic autonomy’ means the EU must have its own capabilities, either manufacturing or supply chains in economically vital sectors be they AI, defence, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, drugs, and even food supply chains. The war in Ukraine, lessons from Covid, and the strategic competition between the US and China highlights the need for strategic autonomy.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Over the next 5, 10 years we will see some big investment trends in areas like green technology, where European companies, governments and the EU put money and expertise to work to build out technologies and competencies in a number of these key sectors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Europe’s venture and private equity sectors are growing and are well placed to support innovation and a broad investment wave. Areas where we will see growth include green technology, military technologies and their offshoots, pharmaceuticals, and a consolidation across fintech and data industries. In some ways, Ireland is behind Europe in sensitive sectors such as fintech and defence, and may ultimately play a select, concentrated role in certain sub-sectors like payments and biotech.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Opportunities for Investment&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is likely that there will be significant capital expenditures in these areas and this will inevitably create new opportunities. In terms of the portfolios that we advise on, it will be important to consider how we can incorporate these themes and associated trends. One approach might be to focus on niche areas where we see the greatest potential for growth and investment returns.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A lot of companies involved in these sectors are private companies.&amp;nbsp;These are high growth companies not yet quoted on stock markets. The way to invest in them is through private equity or venture capital raises. Increasingly, as we build client portfolios, we will have different ways of capturing these trends through liquid private equity and through niche and targeted venture capital and private equity funds.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The Irish economy is unlike other small, developed economies. While the venture capital and private equity sectors are not yet fully developed in Ireland, we are seeing an increasing number of unicorns i.e., private companies&#39; worth €1bn and more. Our view is that this is going to be a big trend in Ireland and across the European economy over the next 10 years.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Get in touch with us by emailing &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt; or talk to your adviser.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Theme 5: What Does Strategic Autonomy Look Like?

&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the start of each year, Unio Wealth Management will present what we consider to be the leading economic, financial and political factors that will influence the year ahead. Throughout the year we will revisit these themes and assess the impact for investors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We will discuss each of our &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/10-themes-impacting-investors-and-companies-in-ireland-in-2023&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;individually and describe the relevance for investors and companies in Ireland. By doing this, we hope to enable investors to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact their investments.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike O’Sullivan, Chair of the Unio Global Macro Council and Investment Committee, Ger Fitzgerald, Head of Investment Strategy and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions will lead on these discussions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;﻿Theme 6: The Trials of Globalisation&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The past 12 months have brought to an end the era of cheap money. Rising inflation and cost of living increases prompted the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England to stop the access to cheap money. However, tighter monetary policy is not the big story.&amp;nbsp;The trials of globalisation as evidenced in the rivalry between China and the US, the legacy of Covid and the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on energy prices is a key trend. If globalisation is over, or at least changing, what does this mean for highly globalised countries like Ireland?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Evidence&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Trump’s trade wars, Brexit, the lack of collaboration between countries during COVID and the strategic rivalry between the US and China have scuppered globalisation as we knew it. This is important for Ireland – one of the most globalised countries in the world.&amp;nbsp;Supply chains are not as broken as seen in 2021/22 however, they are still in flux. China and the US continue to disengage and have an intensive rivalry around sectors like semiconductors. Financial markets are also polarised and the sense of competition is high.&amp;nbsp;US President Biden could only get action on climate change through Congress if it was seen to be good for American jobs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Impacts&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From a market perspective, the trials of globalisation are played out in terms of currencies, and companies exposed to supply chain dislocations will suffer most.&amp;nbsp;In our Theme No. 5 article:&lt;em&gt; &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/what-does-strategic-autonomy-look-like&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;What Does Strategic Autonomy Look Like?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;, &lt;/em&gt;the impacts of globalisation through the need for self-sufficiency is explored.&amp;nbsp;Deglobalisation comes at a cost. Trade theory suggests go-it-alone/self-sufficiency strategies lead to higher prices as countries cease to specialise in what they are most efficient at producing. This may result in inflation proving to be a more enduring problem than central banks think.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;What this means for Ireland&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Locally, Ireland remains a bastion of US multinational investment and there is no evidence to suggest this will stop. However, it does mean that Ireland will be structurally less exposed to Chinese investment and Ireland could play a key role as a bridge between the US and Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Outlook&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Globalisation is certainly changing however, it is not finished. US and European companies have invested heavily in low-cost, offshore production centres.&amp;nbsp;While exports from China are expected to fall in 2023 due to the global economy it will remain the world’s biggest exporter. The bigger change will be who will be willing to trade with who. Countries will be careful about opening up strategically important sectors to competition.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Get in touch with us by emailing&lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt; or talk to you adviser.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Theme 6: The Trials of Globalisation

&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the start of each year Unio Wealth Management will present what we consider to be the leading economic, financial and political factors that will influence the year ahead. Throughout the year we will revisit these themes and assess the impact for investors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We will discuss each of our &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/10-themes-impacting-investors-and-companies-in-ireland-in-2023&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;individually and describe the relevance for investors and companies in Ireland. By doing this, we hope to enable investors to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact their investments.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike O’Sullivan, Chair of the Unio Global Macro Council and Investment Committee, Ger Fitzgerald, Head of Investment Strategy and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions will lead on these discussions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Theme 7: Digital Money Grows up, Web 3 Enthralls&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Covid ushered in the digital economy and to a large extent the digital society. Digital assets will survive the collapse of FTX and become mainstream and regulated. Web 3.0 and the associated metaverse grow in popularity, and see greater engagement as the socio-economic outlook worsens.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h4&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h4&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Policy&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Policy makers have little incentive to allow crypto to flourish and will be happy to tighten regulation around the crypto and digital assets infrastructure. The metaverse may also be regulated in terms of asset sales and in terms of the ways people on the Metaverse interact with the ‘real world’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Markets&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For the time being crypto will likely remain strongly correlated with risk assets like the Nasdaq and broad market liquidity. We think however that digital asset infrastructure – be it security, custody or products like ETFs - will continue to grow in size and activity.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Ireland&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland is not specifically exposed to this trend, though notably like many other economies there is a strong appetite amongst the ‘next generation’ to own digital assets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Get in touch with us by emailing us at &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt; or talk to you adviser.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Theme 7: Digital Money Grows up, Web 3 Enthralls

&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the start of each year Unio Wealth Management will present what we consider to be the leading economic, financial and political factors that will influence the year ahead. Throughout the year we will revisit these themes and assess the impact for investors.&amp;nbsp;We will discuss each of our &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/10-themes-impacting-investors-and-companies-in-ireland-in-2023&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;individually and describe the relevance for investors and companies in Ireland. By doing this, we hope to enable investors to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact their investments.&amp;nbsp;Mike O’Sullivan, Chair of the Unio Global Macro Council and Investment Committee, Ger Fitzgerald, Head of Investment Strategy and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions will lead on these discussions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Theme 8: Democracy Fights Back&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We are in a ‘democratic depression’ with the level of democracy around the world now back to where it was in 1990&#39;s. The Economist Intelligence Unit finds that only 7% of the world’s population live in a ‘full democracy’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h4&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h4&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;World&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The decline in democracy is tied up in many factors, the emergence of ‘autocracy’ in the BRIC countries, democratic crises in the Anglo-Saxon countries and populism across Europe. There are welcome signs of a move to ‘the centre’ in G7 countries, and an increasing willingness to deploy new democratic initiatives such as Ireland’s Citizens Assembly.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Markets&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The apparent decline in democracy is important for economies, societies and for geopolitical risk across markets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Ireland&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland is not necessarily at risk here, however it needs to play close attention to politics in the US, UK and the elaboration of the idea of ‘European Values’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Get in touch with us by emailing &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie &lt;/a&gt;or talk to you adviser.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Theme 8: Democracy Fights Back

&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the start of each year Unio Wealth Management will present what we consider to be the leading economic, financial and political factors that will influence the year ahead. Throughout the year we will revisit these themes and assess the impact for investors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We will discuss each of our &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/10-themes-impacting-investors-and-companies-in-ireland-in-2023&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;individually and describe the relevance for investors and companies in Ireland. By doing this, we hope to enable investors to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact their investments.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike O’Sullivan, Chair of the Unio Global Macro Council and Investment Committee, Ger Fitzgerald Head of Investment Strategy and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions will lead on these discussions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Theme 10: Geopolitical Risk Matters Again&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Geopolitical risk is back and is felt in commodities, currencies and bond markets. In this clip, the team discusses the relationship between rising geopolitical risk and market stability, and how disruptive world events are impacting investment portfolios in 2023.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://player.vimeo.com/video/826109702/&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Summary Text&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Geopolitical Landscape&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The world is increasingly divided and troubled. Against the backdrop of the rise and fall of empires, the end of globalisation and a sharp rise in military spending, the risk of a geopolitical accident or outright conflict is rising.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Recent disruptive events such as the ongoing war in Ukraine; unrest in Taiwan, North Korea, the South China Sea and Iran; and trade tensions between the US and China, continue to present material investment risks. As an example, because of the war in Ukraine, the IMF lowered its forecast for global growth for this year by 0.8 percentage points to 3.6%, cutting its GDP forecasts for 143 of the 198 economies under its coverage.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The US-China trade war is causing significant worry, especially for industries such as technology with implications for investment patterns in sectors such as semiconductors.&amp;nbsp;If we look to the powerhouses of the US, Russia and China: the risk rating of these nations has a significant impact on investment portfolios with these exposures.&amp;nbsp;If we consider the weight of the investment opportunities within the US, any move in the US dollar, inflation, interest rates or any other factor can have a significant impact on returns and volatility.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Opportunity cost of risk&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another factor to consider is opportunity cost. There are costs associated with the risk of political instability, such as lost investment opportunities or reduced economic growth. For example, the implication of geopolitical risk for heavily indebted nations is significant when their limited resources are directed towards defence spending and not investment in education, healthcare or infrastructure. Heavily indebted nations may experience a decline in their economic growth and GDP due to reduced investment in their own economy. This could further worsen their financial situation, leading to increased debt and potentially impacting their credit rating.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Impacts on Markets&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With central banks raising interest rates and pulling back from quantitative easing, markets are more sensitive to political risk than they have been in the past 10 years when geopolitical risks and its effects were softened by plenty of liquidity. The new world order also creates operational dilemmas for corporates with geopolitical events impacting location decisions; global supply chains; transport of goods; currency exchange; and global movement of customers and employees.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Case of Turkey&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Turkey is an example of an economy adversely impacted by geopolitical events. The degradation of institutions: government; judiciary; education; the financial system and prevailing authoritarian practices have had significant consequences for Turkish society and the economy.&amp;nbsp;Economic woes are mounting. The Turkish lira (TRY) is plummeting in value, there’s high inflation, rising borrowing costs, and correspondingly rising loan defaults. Turkey is a large country with a substantial economy however, the withering away of the value of its debt and its currency is symptomatic of the political risks that have emerged in recent years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;2023 Outlook&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Increasing global conflict and tension in 2023 will impact the evaluation of investment risk, resulting in both opportunities and risks for investment portfolios. The impact of geopolitical risk on markets and investments depends on the nature and severity of the risk and the challenge is in determining how long-lasting any particular risk is. In terms of local impact, typically it hasn&#39;t been necessary for us to take geopolitical risk into consideration however risk will weigh on market prices.&amp;nbsp;We don’t consider this a direct threat for Ireland however, investors need to be alert.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Get in touch with us by emailing &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt; or talk to you adviser.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Theme 10: Geopolitical Risk Matters Again

&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the start of each year Unio Wealth Management will present what we consider to be the leading economic, financial and political factors that will influence the year ahead. Throughout the year we will revisit these themes and assess the impact for investors.&amp;nbsp;We will discuss each of our &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/10-themes-impacting-investors-and-companies-in-ireland-in-2023&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Ten Themes for 2023&lt;/a&gt; individually and describe the relevance for investors and companies in Ireland. By doing this, we hope to enable investors to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact their investments.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike O’Sullivan, Chair of the Unio Global Macro Council and Investment Committee, Ger Fitzgerald, Head of Investment Strategy and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions lead on these discussions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Theme 9: Brexit Peters Out &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this clip, the team explores the ninth theme; the impacts of the economic and political situation in the UK.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://player.vimeo.com/video/825886375/&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Summary&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Windsor Framework Close to Agreement&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Brexit and its economic fallout have resulted in slowing investment and productivity in the UK economy. As predicted, the Sunak government has sought a less confrontational stance with the EU, and this has produced the welcome Windsor framework. While this does not suggest a reversal of Brexit it does perhaps signal the beginning of a less ‘fractious’ period in terms of trade relations, and greater pragmatism around the debate on the trade role of Northern Ireland. In general, this is a welcome development for Ireland in terms of the political energy deployed and the disruption to trade. The &quot;Windsor&quot; framework agreement appears to have resolved many of the legal and political disputes, potentially paving the way for improved relations between the UK and the EU.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Better relations between the EU and the UK&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the themes we felt likely to play out in 2023 was the “petering out of Brexit”; the UK and EU finding a way to make Brexit work and to be less invasive in relation to their ongoing relationship.&amp;nbsp;We expect Brexit to be much less of an economic, political and market event this year. As we speak, the new protocol around Northern Ireland has just been announced. What this means from an economic and market point of view is lower economic risk, lower tail risk or extreme risk in the markets. We believe we will see some calm returning to UK politics, some semblance of normalcy returning to Northern Irish politics and, maybe less trade stress and better relations between the EU and the UK.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Market Opportunities&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Less trade stress between the UK and Ireland may lead to some significant market opportunities. From an UK investment point of view, the outlook has been very much maligned in recent years. As the trade disagreements became more protracted, the view was that investing in UK markets was not appealing, albeit the energy sector has propped up the UK market over the interim period. However, the beginning of more normalised relationships opens a channel that reduces tail risk and creates new opportunities.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While there is still some work to be done, we believe there is an increasing opportunity to generate positive returns across that investment universe. Therefore, we believe that the extreme downside is probably priced out of the market and investors, be it in real estate, equities or gilts, will find more comfort in putting money back into UK assets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;2023 Outlook&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Brexit will be less of an economic, political and market event this year. The new protocol around Northern Ireland will be a positive for the rest of the year and give rise to more opportunities to invest in UK assets.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Get in touch with us by emailing us at &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie &lt;/a&gt;or talk to your adviser.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Theme 9: Brexit Peters Out

&lt;h2&gt;Case Study: When is retirement possible?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;h4&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/h4&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Background&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our client is a senior executive with one of Ireland’s most successful multinational organisations. He is in his late 50’s and has had a stellar career. Travelling worldwide for business, he had little time to focus on his own personal financial situation. He had been accumulating wealth in the form of his pension, share options as well as property but had no real understanding around when he could afford to retire. He and his wife had many places they would like to travel to on their “bucket list” which, until now they had no time to do.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Challenge&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We really wanted to understand what was most important to our client and his family. We started with an open conversation about his overall goals and aspirations now and into the future. Some of their key objectives were to:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class=&quot;ql-indent-1&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;Understand if, and when he could afford to retire&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;Travel more in retirement&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;Assist with education costs for their grandchildren&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;Give something back to society&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;Reduce the inheritance tax bill that the children will ultimately have&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There were many moving parts to our client&#39;s financial situation, and they were very busy with work and other commitments. This client family found it difficult to truly understand what options they would have and if they were making the best decisions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Advisory Journey&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We brought this couple through our Executive Financial Planning service known as Wealth Plan, and gathered all their financial data. Once we analysed this data, we illustrated their current Income and current expenditure and produced their Net Worth Statement.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The next step was to prepare a cashflow projection using our illustrative financial planning software. This cashflow projection was based on their current employment income, dividend income, rental income and expected pension income.&amp;nbsp;At the same time, a projection of future expenditure was prepared showing how this would evolve over time to reflect their changing needs.&amp;nbsp;Wealth Plan illustrated the various retirement income building blocks.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We then stress tested their Wealth Plan.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;We considered the impact of early retirement, the impact of currency and stock market shock on their stock options. We upgraded the quality of their bucket list.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Other areas discussed included assisting with the education costs of their grandchildren. We advised the couple to establish a Bare Trust for each of their grandchildren and to contribute to these trusts annually utilising the Small Gift Exemption.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Using our cashflow forecasting tools, the couple saw the potential estate that they would leave behind and the resulting substantial tax liability for their three children. We advised the couple to take out Inheritance Tax Insurance cover to reduce the future tax liability for their children.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We reviewed their vested stock options and their currency exposure and worked to replace single stock risk with a more diversified stock portfolio.&amp;nbsp;For the first time, this couple could visualise how their retirement might look based on some prudent assumptions and where interventions were needed.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Outcome&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a result of this detailed review we knew, with a high degree of probability, that no matter what happens, this couple would be financially sound.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Through a deep understanding of this couple’s financial situation as well as understanding their goals and aspirations, we were able to tailor a Financial Plan that ensured they could live for today, have the freedom to work on their own terms and also plan for the future.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our solution gave a sense of relief and excitement for the future to this client family. The husband will continue working for a further three years and retire at 62. He plans to get involved at an executive level with his local GAA club and spend quality time with his grandchildren.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Perfect Solution for Your Situation&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial planning is an appropriate discipline for all age groups, whether you are starting your career or if, as in this case, you are looking for direction on your retirement provision.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management we have an experienced team of financial professionals, who can assist you with your portfolio and your financial planning, no matter what your life stage. We think long term, we use sound investment principles, and we are always conscious of tax efficiency.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Talk to your Unio Private Client Adviser or contact us at &lt;a href=&quot;http://info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&amp;nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

When is retirement possible?

&lt;h2&gt;Case Study:&amp;nbsp;Advising a corporate client with surplus cash&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Background&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A corporate client had been trading strongly for several years. Significant surplus cash had been accumulated and held in an on-demand deposit account accruing no interest and losing purchasing power due to inflation.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The client wanted this surplus money to work harder and at a minimum earn a return that aimed to protect its purchasing power. The corporate identified a portion of the surplus cash that they were very unlikely to require over the next 3-5 years.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Our Role&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We worked with the corporate client to understand their industry, the outlook for that industry and the likely business capital calls over the next 5 years.&amp;nbsp;Jointly we identified the corporate risk appetite.&amp;nbsp;Finally, we designed an investment strategy to meet the objective of maintaining the purchasing power of these monies.&amp;nbsp;Our work together also included structuring the investment in a tax efficient manner.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Key Need&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our client&#39;s key requirement was to maintain the purchasing power of their surplus cash against rising inflation. They also wanted to be able to access the funds in the event of an emergency without any significant notice periods or early access penalties.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;Solution&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Firstly, we undertook risk profiling of the business strategy and then the two main owner directors to ascertain the business objective. We then agreed the investment objective and our client completed our risk assessment questionnaire which identified their investment experience and risk tolerance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Secondly, we presented what a typical investment journey would look like based on history and expected volatility for different risk adjusted investment portfolios. We then reviewed the tax benefits for Irish corporates investing in various investment structures. We discussed investing in passive income opportunities e.g., deposit interest. We discussed the likelihood of a liability to corporation tax on investment income and the investment income surcharge.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We then moved to the planning and implementation phase where we prepared a tax-efficient investment recommendation.&amp;nbsp;The investment proposed was a medium risk portfolio investing in a blend of global equities, European corporate and government bonds, infrastructure equities, private equity, and real estate investment trusts (REIT’s). We ensured all funds were daily priced thus supporting informed decision making, we ensured all funds had daily liquidity ensuring emergency events were catered for.&amp;nbsp;Finally, we ensured there were no early access penalties.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The client completed the application process digitally and transferred the funds by electronic funds transfer (EFT). Anti-Money Laundering (AML) was also completed electronically.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The overall strategy for the accumulated surplus cash ensured there was sufficient cash placed on an on-demand deposit for day-to-day operational requirements.&amp;nbsp;Medium term cash requirements were placed on short-term deposit and the longer-term cash was invested in an appropriate risk adjusted portfolio.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management we have an experienced team of financial professionals, who can assist you with your corporate portfolio and your financial planning.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Talk to your Unio Private Client Adviser or contact us at &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&amp;nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Advising a corporate client with surplus cash

&lt;h2&gt;Case Study: Gifting to Grandchildren&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our client retired in 2006 and had a significant financial portfolio. However, he wanted to ensure two things:&amp;nbsp;Firstly, he wanted to ensure he would have sufficient capital and income to maintain his current lifestyle&amp;nbsp;and funds to pay for private nursing care if needed.&amp;nbsp;Secondly, he wanted to make gifts to his children and grandchildren and avail of all exemptions from capital acquisitions tax (CAT) to minimise the tax bill the next generation will incur.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Challenge&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Firstly, we did a cashflow planning exercise, to make sure that the client’s financial portfolio could meet his annual income requirements and to ensure it was in line with his preferred attitude to investment risk.&amp;nbsp;We structured his portfolio to do this successfully. Then we moved on to the tax efficient transfer of assets. Here, we focussed specifically on gifting to his grandchildren.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our challenge was to work with our client to use the power of compound returns instead of putting money into low (or no) return deposit accounts.&amp;nbsp;We encouraged our client to make use of clever solutions to drip modest amounts of money monthly into the investment markets for his 11 grandchildren.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Solution&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The annual Small Gift Exemption can be a powerful tax planning tool.&amp;nbsp;Each person in the State can make a gift to another of €3,000 per year without triggering any gift tax.&amp;nbsp;This is often used by families to make gifts to children and grandchildren. In this case, investing long term into a medium risk portfolio for each grandchild generated significant returns.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Using simple mathematics, €3,000 multiplied by 11 grandchildren by 15 years is €495,000.&amp;nbsp;This is a significant amount of money taken out of our client’s potential taxable estate and transferred efficiently to the next generation.&amp;nbsp;By investing in an investment product, which is effectively in each child’s name, the annual gift is for the child’s benefit from the outset.&amp;nbsp;All investment returns over the 15 years have rolled up in the child’s name – not the grandparent’s.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We can advise on a number of product solutions that can cater for annual investing in the name of a child or grandchild.&amp;nbsp;These solutions are robust with access to a wide range of investment funds.&amp;nbsp;In this case the key was to set up the client’s main portfolio properly at the outset, where it could generate the required amount of income.&amp;nbsp;After that, we assisted and advised on a clever way to utilise the surplus within the portfolio and to limit the size of the taxable estate on death.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Outcome&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We picked one clear strategy, using one of the best investment products on the market.&amp;nbsp;We agreed an investment strategy for the asset allocation of the monthly investment plans, thinking long term and ignoring short term volatility. The €495,000 in total invested over 15 years, is now worth well in excess of the initial amount – a gain that would otherwise have been in the grandparent’s estate and would have been heavily taxed on death.&amp;nbsp;A final note – if both grandparents were alive, both could avail of the gift exemption and double the amount transferred over the period.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h4&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h4&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The Perfect Solution for Your Situation&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial planning is an appropriate discipline for all age groups – whether you are starting your career, whether you are looking for direction on your retirement provision or if, as in this case, you are retired and are looking for clever ways to manage your assets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we have an experienced team of financial professionals, who can assist you with your portfolio and your financial planning, no matter your stage in life.&amp;nbsp;We think long term, we use sound investment principles, and we are always conscious of tax efficiency.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Talk to your Unio Private Client Adviser or contact us at &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;u&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/u&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please remember if you hold an account with Unio, you can check your portfolio value at any time through the Unio portal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Gifting to Grandchildren

&lt;h3&gt;Partner with us&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Looking for something more tailored to you and your needs?&amp;nbsp;Unio will build a solution that meets your risk appetite, incorporates your ideas with our screening, oversight and expertise.&lt;/p&gt;