&lt;p&gt;My friends in the French Air Force tell me (by Signal obviously) that last Tuesday’s ‘Poker 2025’ nuclear attack exercise went off well. Rafale fighter jets loaded with mock nuclear missiles took off from bases in Brittany, supported by Mirage fighters, refuelling and signals planes, in order to stage an attack on the southern part of France, which in this simulation was defended by a host of other air forces (i.e. Poland).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This was the first ‘Poker’ exercise in four years and comes at an opportune time for France to demonstrate its nuclear capability to other EU states, and to up the ante in terms of the defence debate in Europe. More alarmingly, America’s retreat as the guarantor of international security, and Russia’s aggression of Ukraine and Europe, not to mention the darker intentions of Iran and China, have prompted a range of countries – from Poland to Australia to debate whether they need a nuclear deterrent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Acquiring or building nuclear weapons is one thing, figuring out how and when to use them is another. In 1983, a potential nuclear exchange was averted when an officer in the Soviet Air Defence Force, Stanislav Petrov, correctly assessed that a signal of an incoming missile attack was a false alarm and did not trigger an urgent warning to his chain of command. Also, in 1962 the Bay of Pigs standoff between the US and Russia came dangerously close to a missile exchange between the superpowers (book ‘The Kennedy Tapes’ is well worth reading).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, it is also time to resurrect the film ‘Dr Strangelove’, a Stanley Kubrick movie that hinges on the dilemma of a first strike nuclear attack by the US on Russia. The central character in the movie, played brilliantly by Peter Sellers, is thought to have been based on Johnny von Neumann, a brilliant Hungarian-American polymath, who passed through some of the world’s most prestigious schools (ETH Zurich, Gottingen and the Institute for Advanced Studies at Princeton) and was a significant contributor to the US atomic weapons program.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of von Neumann’s accomplishments was the founding of game theory – the modelling of strategic decision making. The logic of Dr Strangelove turns around the game theoretic problem that could be described as ‘if I think my nuclear armed opponent might think I AM going to strike him, and he might react, then I had better strike him first’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Game theory has become an important part of economics since von Neumann’s work and is also very useful in international relations. It may enjoy a revival in the context of the second Trump presidency (a couple of weeks ago in ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/from-brexit-to-dixit&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Brexit to Dixit’&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;I invoked the work of another Princeton resident, Avinash Dixit, on real options theory, which is helpful in explaining how policy uncertainty is impacting investment decisions).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Game theory helps to explain why the world was so stable during the period of globalisation – the international landscape was dominated by a large, predictable, and mostly benevolent ‘actor’ (USA) in the context of a host of other less powerful actors. The advent of a new, powerful, self-interested actor (China) changed the nature of the international ‘game’ (as popularised in books like Graham Allison’s ‘Destined for War’).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The reason that game theory will be in vogue in international relations is that the assumptions behind the dominant player in the game, the US, are already radically changing, as witnessed by comments this week from Mark Carney the Canadian prime minister.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The US may no longer be dominant (a powerful nation-state rather than an empire), it could be more adversarial rather than benevolent and generally unpredictable. In the game theory framework, such a view of the US as an actor on the international stage could prompt other nations to take hitherto unthinkable actions – Japan might build a nuclear weapons program (it has the wherewithal to do so quickly) and provide this to South Korea, China might decide to bolster its soft power by underwriting health and poverty programs for the UN, and Europe may offer its citizens a secure, private social media service (not unlike the WeChat suite).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Next week’s Liberation day (April 2) tariff announcement will play a role in the transformation of the US in the eyes of its allies and neighbours, and a game theoretic response is that we see much greater coordination between Japan, the EU, UK and Canada around their collective trade and economic relationship with the US.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Poker 2025

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Many high earners in Ireland are financially successful but still lack the right guidance to make the most of their wealth. &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial-reports/helping-high-earners-achieve-their-full-financial-potential/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;In this week&#39;s Sunday Business Post&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;, Ian Brady, Chief Executive at Unio Wealth Management discusses how strategic financial advice can unlock greater opportunities for professionals, business owners, and executives. A 4 minute read.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wealth in Ireland only started to grow materially in the late 1990s, there is an historic, generational transfer of wealth under way and a new cohort of earned wealth creating a surge in the need for wealth advice. Unio has ambitious growth plans and is filling that void for Ireland’s wealthy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With much of Ireland experiencing wealth for the first time, knowledge and education is key for success. According to the 2022 European Fund and Asset Management Association’s Household Participation in Capital Markets Report, Ireland has just 1 per cent of its wealth invested in funds and securities, versus a European average of 10 per cent. Yet we have high savings rates. So why aren’t more people building their wealth through investing?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Ireland became wealthy quite quickly, and culturally, a lot of our wealth was traditionally invested in land and property,” said Ian Brady, CEO of Unio Wealth Management. “Swathes of high earners in Ireland are completely under-advised, perhaps because there is a bit of reluctance among people in Ireland to talk about wealth. People often have a view of investing as a product-led transaction and that might feel cold to some people and put them off. In contrast, we see in other countries a more mature and established culture of advice-led financial planning supported by robust investment solutions. This is more inclusive of the whole family and their life goals, this is where Unio comes in.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio is the coming​ together of five of Ireland’s leading wealth management​ and employee benefit companies, with the financial backing of Great-West Lifeco, significantly the owners of Irish Life. The company has a clear goal of guiding, guarding and growing wealth in Ireland, opting for a progressive and inclusive approach that truly considers clients’ holistic and financial needs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Our clients tell us that wealth means more to them than money or assets, it is about quality of life for the future, we understand this and it’s what makes Unio different, our full financial life planning is unique,” said Brady. “We are here to really understand our clients and what they want to do with their wealth into the future and help them achieve it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Ireland is good at saving money, but the vast majority of it is in overnight accounts. People can make their savings work harder by investing in the context of a solid financial plan and in this regard, there is a long way to go in Ireland. Typically, people don’t access advice in Ireland to the levels seen internationally. In the US, it’s a badge to talk about your adviser.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Swathes of high earners in Ireland are completely under-advised&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While Unio may be focused on helping Ireland’s wealthy, their advisers also have a mission of advising and guiding people from an early age so they can achieve wealth one day. “We are set up to meet people where they are and for us that is in the workplace. Unio has an employee benefits business, so we’re in the workplace advising people with their pensions,” said Brady. “We find that often people start to build a relationship around financial planning when they start paying into a pension. It’s a great place to bring people up to speed with financial planning and what people need to do before retirement. Irish Life serves 27 of the top 30 multinationals in the country, where much of this wealth is emerging, so it’s natural that a wealth management business like Unio should sit alongside this also.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The advantage of this holistic planning-based approach is that advisers can help clients with a vast range of needs. “Our aim is to give our clients immense peace of mind, maximise their wealth and unlock their confidence in the future,” said Brady. “We know that careful planning and expert guidance is at the heart of every financial success, but this is a highly personal, and can be, an emotive experience for our clients. We understand that clients want to deal with a company that’s empathetic, warm and inclusive, that’s Unio. Our team is genuinely passionate about helping clients reach their financial life goals and achieve their full financial potential.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article appeared in the Sunday Business Post on Sunday, 23rd March and is available here to read online: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial-reports/helping-high-earners-achieve-their-full-financial-potential/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Helping high earners achieve their full financial potential&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch here. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Helping High Earners Achieve their Full Financial Potential

&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishtimes.com/sponsored/2025/03/10/the-wealth-management-partner-that-helps-you-create-the-space-to-change-the-pace/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This article appeared in the Irish Times on Tuesday, 18th March 2025.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Putting financial decisions on the long finger is short-changing your future self&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio advisers know that no two clients are the same. It’s why everything they do is tailored to each client, designing wealth management solutions that meet their specific needs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It’s an expertise that comes from decades of experience helping clients to identify their goals, build a plan for their future and, most importantly, how to fund it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That’s because Unio Wealth Management represents the coming together of some of Ireland’s leading wealth management and employee benefit companies backed by Canadian international financial services company Great-West Lifeco.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, it specialises in meeting the needs of people in Ireland who have accumulated wealth, either through good jobs or good fortune, but yet they are time poor and as a result are under-advised when it comes to what their wealth means for their future and how to maximise it fully.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That accounts for more of us than we might appreciate, explains Wendy McKeown, Unio’s head of financial planning, and Conor Murray, head of its corporate and company executives’ business.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our clients tell us that wealth means more to them than money or assets, it is about quality of life for the future, we understand this and this is what makes Unio different to other investment houses.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The great escape&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;They talk about a couple that Murray works with as a case in point, in their mid-fifties, were feeling “a little bit stuck on the corporate treadmill”, when they met him, says Murray.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“They were lucky in that they had accumulated assets, including cash and property, but needed a clearer picture of their future.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Both had travelled extensively for work. “They had been all over the world, but only from the airport to the meeting and back. They never had time to explore the world together,” he explains.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, they were such career highflyers that “even getting them in the one room at the same time was a challenge,” he recalls.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;They came to him with a goal already formulated but no clear path to achieving it. Their wish was to retire at 61 while they were young enough to enjoy traveling, together.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Through his conversations with them, Murray helped them to understand what they needed to do to make that future a reality.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;By talking through their lives, priorities, and motivations, together they mapped out a comprehensive plan that enabled them to achieve and fund early retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The plan included increasing their pension contributions and making investment options that would generate reliable income. Knowing the impact of these steps was a great motivator in their final years of work, he adds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Though one of them suffered a recent health scare, knowing that they had enough to fund their retirement was a huge relief. Now they travel six times a year, making unforgettable memories,” he says.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Having the space to change pace&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A client that sticks in Wendy McKeown’s mind is a business owner who felt it was time to step back from her business and rebalance her life.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“She had been working at 100 miles an hour up until that point, had always been focused on the business and its success, and hadn’t taken the time to take stock and think about herself. Now, she wanted to take her foot off the pedal a little, and focus on hobbies and interests, and just enjoy the life she had worked so hard to build,” explains McKeown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Together they worked out how to make her finances work harder for her, to enable her to do just that. While she had taken retirement relief from her company, she found herself sitting on cash deposits earning a low rate of interest. They established that her priority was to have a reliable monthly income, with access to her cash if she needed it. McKeown helped her tidy up her pension and take advantage of all the tax credits available to her.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;After decades of calling all the shots herself as a business owner, having an expert to reassure and guide her through her finances was a welcome relief, recalls McKeown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“I think she really appreciated the support and encouragement and now has the funds to do what she wants with the most precious asset of all – her time.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;A new chapter, a new life&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the toughest challenges facing any of us is how best to manage wealth in the event that our significant other passes away. That was the scenario facing another of McKeown’s clients.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Her husband died and left her with a sizeable estate but no real experience in managing finances. “While she was grateful for the security that provided, she was anxious about the responsibility of it, and knew she needed professional advice to help her navigate this next chapter of her life,” says Wendy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As ever, the key to putting the right plan in place was to spend time listening, with no pressure and no rushed decisions, she explains.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A plan was agreed and implemented, including setting aside a significant contribution for a charitable purpose, which was enormously meaningful to her client. “It was about providing guidance and reassurance every step of the way,” says McKeown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;When do you need wealth management advice?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Very often people are working in senior corporate roles and are unbelievably time-poor but have complex financial needs in the background, and probably a family as well. They don’t get time to stop and really understand what all of this means for them and their family into the future,” says Conor.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“For us it’s about really trying to understand what’s important to the client. It’s about what they want to get out of it. Then it’s about giving them the peace of mind and reassurance of knowing they have the wealth behind them to live the life they want to live.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In many cases, people are overwhelmed by their financial situation and so put it on the long finger, points out McKeown. But in doing so they are inevitably short-changing their future selves.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The fact that there is currently €150 billion sitting in low-interest cash deposit accounts, eroded by inflation, bears this out.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“The potential opportunities you leave behind by not taking action can be significant down the road. It could be the difference between becoming financially independent or being forced to continue working. It’s why it is just so important to seek out that advice,” adds Murray.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Clients that invest time in the process with their Unio Wealth Management Adviser are making the greatest investment in their future. Those who invest in advice were twice as likely to feel positively about their future. That’s why we believe that time spent with Unio is truly time well spent,” he concludes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishtimes.com/sponsored/2025/03/10/the-wealth-management-partner-that-helps-you-create-the-space-to-change-the-pace/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This article appeared in the Irish Times on Tuesday, 18th March 2025.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Conor Murray is head of Corporate and Company Executives at Unio Wealth Management and &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Conor%20Murray&amp;amp;segment=Corporate%20and%20Company%20Executives&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wendy McKeown is head of Financial Planning at Unio Wealth Management.&lt;/p&gt;

Creating the Space to Change the Pace

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This January was the hottest January on record, at a temperature of 1.75°C above the average for the month (2024 was the hottest year on record with 150 extreme weather events). February was the month with the highest level of economic policy uncertainty since the 1990’s (excluding COVID). Something must be brewing but, the global narrative is so concentrated on the White House and intensely short-term that in a way, the future has been obscured.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whether we like it or not, climate damage is part of that future path and will play its own role in the disorder and re-ordering of the international political economic landscape to come. Regular readers will know that in the framework of my ‘Levelling’, imbalances like the crisis of democracy, climate damage and debt will have to be overcome before a new world order is fully established.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In particular, the deepening of climate damage and the rise of indebtedness are correlated, and both are ‘world’ problems, at a time when coordination between the great powers is at its lowest ebb since the 1930’s. For game theorists at least, this produces a tricky equation – how to achieve a global solution or compromise when the main players in the game are trying to steal a march on each other.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Some of the pathways for climate warming are worrying (taking a range of datapoints from the IPCC, Berkley-Earth institute and the Global Carbon Project), if countries implement the commitments agreed at COP-Paris then global warming will be 2.4°C higher than the long-term average temperature by 2050, with current climate policies the increase is expected to be close to 3.5°C and with no climate policy adjustment it might be in the range of 4-5°C. Granted that a 1°C change in world average temperature can translate into a 4°C increase in some of the most climate precarious countries, this last scenario is frightening.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If climate damage encroaches on some of the thresholds mentioned above, it will become even more of a strategic issue for the economy (there is a &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.nber.org/papers/w33567__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nRyLaIlceKvVBdZmghiZGMvVjt3QMOpWGPBUAUt82eHLwjlb5aQSb-kGW3X8wYRjccB_TIWub-38VM0uUuCEVo37$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;good literature review here&lt;/a&gt;), the technology sector, financial markets and security. Indeed, the 2023 yearly threat assessment produced by the US Director for National Intelligence highlighted that “Climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to U.S. national security interests”.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This report might well become a collector’s item because Pete Hegseth the new Defence Secretary recently (Jan 25) tweeted that “The (Department of Defence) does not do climate change crap”. Whilst the US economy is a very powerful driver of climate technology (Texas gets nearly a third of its electricity from wind power), its absence as a moral leader will mean weaker climate policy adherence by other countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context the link between climate damage and security will have to be made by others, notably the excellent team at UCL’s &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.ucl.ac.uk/future-crime/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nRyLaIlceKvVBdZmghiZGMvVjt3QMOpWGPBUAUt82eHLwjlb5aQSb-kGW3X8wYRjccB_TIWub-38VM0uUqJuXo3S$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Dawes Centre for Future Crime&lt;/a&gt;, with whom I spent time last week exploring how climate damage is provoking new forms of crime and threats to security that go beyond the simple theft of copper wires and solar panels (a vibrant trade apparently).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are a few strands in this emerging, important debate to draw out. Climate damage will in the long-run change cities, geographies and economies and produce migratory trends that malevolent states or non-state actors (gangs and organised crime) will exploit. Energy infrastructure is becoming more stressed because of climate change and the side-effects of this were evident last week with the closure of Heathrow following a fire in a nearby electricity substation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In a more futuristic vein, the response to climate warming will create new technologies, some of them in the realm of geo-engineering which may be able to alter the effects of climate damage, but that might also be commandeered for harm. Then there is AI, which itself will create much greater demand for electricity, but that can help optimise energy usage, though the AI itself is vulnerable to manipulation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Climate change is also leading to the development of new marketplaces – for carbon credits for example, as well as ESG driven assets and debt, but these new forms of financial market infrastructure are often illiquid, improperly regulated and prone to fraud.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What all this points to is that as climate damage provokes innovation, new infrastructure, technologies and markets in the context of a world where security is now a priority and where non-state actors (i.e. gangs) become more powerful and daring, the response to climate damage now also needs to have countermeasures built into it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Clime and Punishment

&lt;p&gt;With emerging market equities remaining affordable relative to those in the US, the Global Macro Council has turned its attention this month to China.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The noise created by the Trump administration has overshadowed significant progress in China. The country is advancing rapidly in AI model building and fostering collaborations with entrepreneurs like Jack Ma.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Chinese-Revival-March-2025.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read more in this month&#39;s GMC Outlook.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We were delighted to be joined this month by guest speakers Archie Hart, Ninety One&amp;nbsp;and Steve Fuk Shing Sheung from HSBC. Thank you both for your valued input.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Chinese Revival

&lt;p&gt;Markets have been choppy for some time, and this week is no exception. You may be wondering what’s driving this volatility, and what it may mean for investments?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch below as our Chief Investment Officer, Mike O&#39;Sullivan and Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions at Unio, discuss the key factors behind the recent swings and, more importantly, how investors can stay positioned amid the uncertainty.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/OHvkMbXITCA?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Volatility in Markets - What You Need to Know.

&lt;p&gt;When the UK voted to leave the European Union, there was a strong consensus that proximate economies would suffer the macro fallout – Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands were all expected to take a hit, and in particular, I recall speaking with business leaders in both Brussels and Amsterdam at the time and registering their concerns for the local economy. In fact, Brussels was strengthened as a political capital by the way in which it managed the Brexit process, and Amsterdam has been bolstered as a financial capital by Brexit.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Returning to both cities, which sadly are off my well beaten track, I found great curiosity regarding the vision and tactics of Donald Trump. Like Brexit, Trump’s first term was about smashing globalisation, whilst his second term is an attempt to create a new world order, or at least a new American role in the world order.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The prosecution of his tariff strategy has been chaotic and unpredictable, and there are signs that the DOGE project to cut costs in the government sector is simply disruptive. As a result, policy uncertainty has spiked higher. For example, the &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nBBbgzPHsJQ07cFck0q8OnEfGJ1_EPGyWFIoEvs8XdGXwR1Lm_88ZwyWo6_Pj5f8ZeKz-mmQzG6lIbh97NaQB0AD$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Economic Policy Uncertainty&lt;/a&gt; index has shot to levels seen only during COVID. As such there is great concern that the US may tip into a recession or even that this is the express policy of the administration, with the goal of reducing borrowing costs (see ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/un-train-peut-cacher-un-autre&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Un train peut cacher un autre&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2025/03/01/un-train-peut-cacher-un-autre/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nBBbgzPHsJQ07cFck0q8OnEfGJ1_EPGyWFIoEvs8XdGXwR1Lm_88ZwyWo6_Pj5f8ZeKz-mmQzG6lIbh97DIl894I$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;’&lt;/a&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Neither the annihilation of the state nor tariffs may cause a recession, but uncertainty might. In this context, a very well regarded, though complex economics text worth knowing of is Avinash Dixit’s &quot;Investment and Hysteresis’ appearing in a 1992 edition of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, and later as a book co-authored with Robert Pindyck. Avinash spent much of his career at Princeton and is a kind, softly spoken and thoughtful economist, in contrast to many of the more head-line grabbing varieties of the species we hear from on social media.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of Dixit’s pre-occupations was the ways in which companies made investment decisions, and to summarise his findings in a crude way, he noted that firms often didn’t react immediately to a change in economic circumstances but opted to ‘wait and see.’ As a result, an environment of high economic uncertainty produces inertia on the part of companies (and investors), but this can be beneficial to them as it gives them the option to wait and see how that environment develops.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We are in a ‘Dixit’ moment, where companies are beginning to stall investment plans because of the uncertainty emanating from the White House and the ever deeper fracturing of trade and diplomatic relationships across the world. In financial markets, there is a risk that the capital market pipeline remains constipated as mergers and initial public offerings are stalled.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Similarly, the growing uncertainty of America&#39;s diplomatic and military intentions is causing nation-states to change course. For example, Portugal has just cancelled an order for F-35 fighter jets and will instead buy European planes, while the centrepiece of Australia’s military strategy, AUKUS, is in disarray.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is difficult to tell how long this ‘Dixit’ moment persists and much depends on the Treasury and White House being able to communicate a clear economic strategy. Notably the administration has been silent on its intentions towards China, which strikes me as odd given that many members of the administration are united in their antipathy towards America’s geostrategic rivalry (Marco Rubio for example published&amp;nbsp;‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/PDFFiles/Marco-Rubio-The-World-China-Made.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The World China Made&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.rubio.senate.gov/rubio-releases-report-the-world-china-made-made-in-china-2025-nine-years-later/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nBBbgzPHsJQ07cFck0q8OnEfGJ1_EPGyWFIoEvs8XdGXwR1Lm_88ZwyWo6_Pj5f8ZeKz-mmQzG6lIbh97Iq4x1te$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;’&lt;/a&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Until we have this clarity, markets will remain jittery, macro data will be unpredictable, and activity will err towards the softer side in the US, but perhaps not in Europe where strategic clarity and ambition are picking up from low levels.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Granted that far too much of the macro debate focuses on the big multipolar zone (US, Europe and China), one of the pleasures of my visit to Amsterdam was the chance to meet with David Skilling (the expert on small, open economies) and also serendipitously with Afshin Molavi (the expert on ‘the other 75%’, by which I mean the emerging world economies). It is worth focusing a little on how both of these groups are adjusting to a changing world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many small open economies are now in a state of high alert, sceptical of the strategic consequences of the actions of the large nations. In many cases, they are mobilising militarily – the Nordics and Baltic states are an example, and &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/distance&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;in a recent note&lt;/a&gt; I detailed how Singapore, though it is one tenth the size of County Cork, it has an active army nearly ten times the size of that of Ireland, and a reserve army of 250,000 well trained soldiers).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the other end of the spectrum, large populous emerging countries (think of Indonesia, Nigeria, and Bangladesh) are worried about the fallout of the US-China rivalry, but in many ways non-aligned and ambitious for their own economies. On a more positive note Afshin and I think that our ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2023/09/15/the-fourth-pole/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nBBbgzPHsJQ07cFck0q8OnEfGJ1_EPGyWFIoEvs8XdGXwR1Lm_88ZwyWo6_Pj5f8ZeKz-mmQzG6lIbh97LZrAXgB$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;4th Pole’&lt;/a&gt; thesis – that the greater economic region linked by the UAE-Saudi Arabia and India – has the makings of a new pole of economic activity.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

From Brexit to Dixit

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Michael and Ann’s Story&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a couple with busy careers, we had big plans for our family’s future but just weren’t sure how to make it all happen. We needed to put the kids through school and university, plan for a few important life events like weddings and work towards a comfortable retirement. We have the added complication that one of us is Australian, so it was vital for us to visit home regularly to keep that connection with family. Like most people, we have a big mortgage however, we both earn well, have share options and, a large lump sum from an inheritance. We know we have significant assets, we’re lucky; the problem is finding the time to figure it all out. Something else always takes priority and to be honest, managing your finances can feel overwhelming. You are always wondering if you are doing the right thing. We needed help to bring the pieces of the puzzle together.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How Unio Wealth Management Helped Us&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From the get-go, our Unio adviser listened carefully to understand our family’s needs and&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;created a plan that addressed everything from building our pension savings and setting up education funds for the kids to planning for life’s milestones. With their guidance, we were able to pay off our mortgage early, saving €180,000 over its lifetime.&amp;nbsp;This alone was a game changer, freeing up income to allow us book those flights and spend time with family. Family Christmases in Sydney are now in the plan as well as annual trips to Ireland for the grandparents.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Final Reflections&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Working with our adviser transformed our situation, providing the clarity focus and perspective we needed. Our adviser understood us, what mattered to us, and they worked through the finances to make it happen. We are still working hard, but now we can enjoy life knowing our family’s future is secure. We can look forward to a lifetime of memories we would never have dreamt possible without taking the time to plan with Unio.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. Invest some time with our expert financial advisers to talk about your life goals. It will be time well spent.&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Talk to us&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stories based on real Unio clients, names and certain details have been adjusted to preserve client privacy.&lt;/p&gt;

Creating a Lifetime of Memories

&lt;p&gt;I was sauntering through the centre of Vienna last Wednesday, admiring its stylish cafes and bars, and Friedrich Hayek came to mind.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hayek argued against the suffocating role of government (‘central planners’) on the economy and for greater individual liberty, and his arguments still contain a grain of truth in the context of many European economies. Ironically, Austria’s brand-new finance minister had previously worked as an economist for a trade union and might well prove to be an ‘anti-Hayek’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hayek was one of the inspirations (after he won the Nobel Prize in 1974) behind what many American libertarians call the ‘Austrian’ school of economics, and his book ‘The Road to Serfdom’ is undoubtedly on the bookshelves of the most ardent members of team Trump, alongside works like Ayn Rand’s ‘Atlas Shrugged ‘.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the Americas, Hayek is a favourite of the ‘chainsaw’ economists, with a large dollop of irony given the push for total control of the economy by an elite. Indeed, the risk for Americans is that the dismantling of the government led economy in America risks turning Americans into serfs of the private sector. But, this scenario is not yet immediately obvious given the way public attention remains focused on Ukraine and the victims of American tariffs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the past six months, a very strong international narrative has spread around the notion of ‘American exceptionalism’. The US is exceptional in a few domains – fighting (military), finance and its multinationals. Donald Trump is using these exceptional pillars to influence other countries and to set in train his vision for a more isolationist America. The response from America’s erstwhile allies has been to rapidly re-arm and re-finance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An important sign of this was the announcement by Friedrich Merz (with the SPD’s Lars Klingbeil and the CSU chief) of a new defence spending plan, which largely swerves the issue of the debt brake. That German and Japanese bond yields rose suggests that markets are pricing the reallocation of the bill for security as an international public good to America’s former allies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The return of war as a topic in European debate will alarm many people, and it should not be underestimated. One of my recent notes highlighted how Europe likely faces an ongoing campaign of harassment, sabotage and destabilisation from Russia. The idea that Europe is on its own is now quite starkly taking hold.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the drumbeat of war will add to stress in our lives, it is not (yet) part of them. For the great majority of people, the geopolitical debate remains one between elites, and so far, does not impact their everyday lives.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is where European leaders need to pay more attention and try to reset the international narrative. If America is strong in fighting and finance, it is weaker in areas where Europe is strong, and we might say that the two continents are the mirror opposite of each other. In my view, Europe is strong in the areas that matter to most people, most of the time. Specifically, Europe, as a social democracy is the best place to live in the world (6.6% of the world’s population live in ‘full’ democracies), has generally free education and healthcare and its societies are peaceful (according to the UN, the murder rate in the US is 14 times that of Italy). Life expectancy in France for instance, is four years ahead of the USA. Health spending per capita in the US is well over double what it would be for a European country (13k vs. 6k).&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, my counterintuitive argument (to the ‘chainsaw economists’) is that America needs less Hayek, and more ‘Europe’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The absence of a deep social security system in the US, and the difficulty of accessing decent healthcare at reasonable prices means that a huge number of Americans live in precarity. Demolishing the department of education and cutting state aid to veterans are just two measures that increase vulnerability.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The trend that is emerging, and which will become starkly visible in a recession, is of an American society where a small but important number of households (say 20%) are wealthy enough to live well and access high quality education and healthcare, 40% of households live with the stress of becoming economically vulnerable and a further 30% live in serfdom in the sense that they have no leisure time (Newsweek estimates that one third of American workers has a second job).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Income inequality in the US is at historically very high levels, and the share of total income garnered by the top 1% of the workforce is tipping levels only seen in the 1930’s. Viewed from the point of view of wealth, 38% of the world’s millionaires live in America and over half of the ultra-high net worth (wealth over USD 50mn) individuals in the world are American. Indeed, the top 1% of wealthy American’s own 18.5% of all wealth in America, while the ‘bottom’ 50% of Americans own just 3% of wealth.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, the Trump 2.0 programme may not free Americans from serfdom to the government but will make them serfs of a private sector.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a parting shot, Europe might need a little dose of Hayek. To that end, social welfare systems, state pension plans and healthcare spending may need to be streamlined across Europe as the security agenda becomes more prominent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Road to Serfdom

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning February 24th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week&#39;s investment briefing📽️&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/79-sDGX0iWo?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-It was another interesting week in global financial markets, which have continued to be influenced by macro and geopolitical risk factors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Whilst value continues to outperform growth over the last quarter, investors remain bullish on Europe relative to the US YTD, further highlighted today with the rally in European defence stocks after political tensions between the US and Ukraine seemed to overspill in the Oval Office last Friday.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Additionally, weaker macro fundamentals in the US are now filtering through to bond markets, with the 10 year yield sliding 0.23% over the week as traders price in up to 3 rate cuts by the Fed over the rest of 2025. If we see a weaker US jobs report this Friday, alongside non-farm payroll data, it may well add to traders forecasts for US interest rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Earnings to watch this week include: March 5: Saudi Aramco, March 06: Broadcom and Costo.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View, Week Beginning March 3rd, 2025

&lt;p&gt;Adam Smith, though better known now as an economist held the chair of Moral Philosophy at Glasgow and as such it’s fair to assume that he knew a thing or two about the intersection of economics, philosophy and politics, and that often a political crisis is motivated by an underlying economic crisis…hence the title of this note.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Smith lived during a time of mercantilism, which we might describe as a nationalistic approach to trade that aims to maximise the exports of a country whilst keeping imports to a minimum. In this context, Smith wrote of mercantilist nations that ‘their interest lies in beggaring their neighbours’, and the phrase ‘beggar thy neighbour’ has been often used in the economic context, usually when growth is scarce (the aftermath of the Great Depression and the Global Financial crisis)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With mercantilism and ‘beggar thy neighbour’ back in fashion, it is worth returning to Smith’s ‘Wealth of Nations&#39;, book IV’ where many of the observations Smith made chime with America today, such as:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;em&gt;‘The sneaking arts of underling tradesmen are thus erected into political maxims for the conduct of a great empire ... . By such maxims as these, however, nations have been taught that their interest consisted in beggaring all their neighbours. Each nation has been made to look with an invidious eye upon the prosperity of all the nations with which it trades, and to consider their gain as its own loss. Commerce, which ought naturally to be, among nations, as among individuals, a bond of union and friendship, has become the most fertile source of discord and animosity’.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, beyond the bonfire of American values and diplomatic relationships, there is an emerging, underlying logic to the policies of the White House that China, Japan and Europe need to pay attention to.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I have written many times in this note that the world economy is in the antechamber of a fiscal-debt crisis (listen to ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001styj__;!!O22_8FOSssc!i4Xk0Fgp6ypxUsVWUc-Cth2EeHqXqGJZNp3lFyUV6OqEkvs0tdzRNHrR68HPVNWybZBY-kwW3c1VyVeYoRFi6Ia1$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Waking up to World Debt’&lt;/a&gt;). Unusually, all of the major economies have become indebted at the same time, and the process(es) by which they try to reduce debt at the same time will likely prove extremely hazardous financially.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It seems that the Trump entourage understands this, and that logically the unifying factor behind disparate policies from the creation of ‘DOGE’ to the enfeebling of NATO are driven by a brutal sense of austerity, that starts with the cutting down of all the international public goods that the US has invested in since Bretton Woods.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, the ‘beggaring’ of Europe pushes the bill for European security back across the Atlantic and has shaped the debate in Europe towards greater debt accumulation (for example the debt brake is one of the most contentious topics for the new German government and the EU will soon embark on the issue of EU defence bonds). Japan, South Korea and Australia might be next.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In effect, the White House is using areas where America is exceptional – financial markets, the military and multinationals – to coerce its allies. Debt might be next. The closest we have to a template for a Trump grand macro plan is a paper written by Stephen Miran, who may soon take up the role of head of the Council for Economic Advisers. The elements in this plan have popularly become known as the ‘Mar-A-Lago Accord’, which is not unlike the world debt conference idea I have written about in The Levelling, though my version takes place in the recently refurbished Raffles (Singapore).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the pillars of the cited ‘Mar-A-Lago Accord is that holders of Treasuries exchange these securities for very long-term loans (that might not provide a coupon). The result would be to restructure the maturity and fiscal burden of America’s debt load. It is a neat idea but will not work in practice. Any debt accord will likely need the impetus of a major financial crisis as a motivator, will need to restructure the debt of all the major economies and will entail a rewriting of financial regulations across the world (for pension funds for example).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In reality, an attempt to enact a Mar-a-Lago Accord, in the same fashion as the debate around NATO, may create aversion (distrust in) to US financial assets and the dollar. Whilst Europeans may not appreciate the extent to which a ‘beggar thy neighbour’ philosophy is driven by US security policy, the White House is underestimating the value that America’s wide ranging financial, diplomatic and commercial infrastructure bring it. An example is that close to 40% of the revenues of large American firms come from overseas.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the short-term, we are also starting to witness the effects of austerity on the American economy. Though ‘hard’ data on the economy remain solid, the outlook will become very noisy in the next few months as government job cuts take hold and as social welfare cuts (notably in the mortgage industry) sow anxiety. Markets have started to become jittery too, amidst a belief that the administration is much more focused on lowering bond yields (and thus the cost of government debt) than boosting the stock market.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a scenario where the (US) economy weakens, investors normally turn to Treasuries, but the prospect of a Mar-A-Lago Accord being foisted upon them could lead to a buyers’ strike.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Un train peut cacher un autre

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning February 24th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week&#39;s investment briefing📽️&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/jd_gt0azzaU?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️The main focus of this week will be the result and implications of the recent German election as they look to form a new government.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ There was a stronger than expected performance from the AfD party, which may make it more difficult to form a strong coalition government.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️Looking ahead this week, some big names in tech will be in the news with Apple&#39;s AGM happening on the 25th, and both Salesforce and Nvidia&#39;s Q4 earnings released on 26th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Later in the week the focus will shift towards US macro data with the Q4 GDP and US Core PCE Price Index released on the 27th and 28th respectively.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View, Week Beginning 24th February, 2025

&lt;p&gt;The New World Order&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2025 is seeing the dawning of a new world where new rules and ways of doing things are crafted, but also one where impatience is a symptom of an unclear future for many countries, companies, and households. In this context, Unio has launched a monthly thought leadership series - New World, New Rules, Your Wealth - the themes of which underpin financial advice to our clients. Written by Mike O’Sullivan, Director, Unio Wealth Management, these articles examine and debate how Ireland – from the point of view of its economy, politics, and diplomacy – will be affected by this ‘new world under new rules’ theme. This first article in the series, examines Ireland’s relationship with the EU. It highlights the importance of the EU to Ireland’s future and the potential shift away from reliance on the UK and US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Challenges in Geopolitics&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first month of the Trump administration has not been kind to Europe, and we are now witnessing the speedy unravelling of over seventy years of American diplomacy and prestige. Chillingly, in the Trump 2.0 world, former allies are adversaries and enemies of the past are now partners. Speeches by members of the Trump administration at the AI Summit in Paris and the Munich Security Conference herald a new strategic relationship between the US and Europe. In particular, the Munich Security Conference saw a dramatic weakening in American support for Ukraine and a sense that its hitherto unwavering commitment to NATO might be crumbling, and the possibility that an EU Defence Union becomes reality. The week’s developments alone point to a trying time for the EU geopolitically. The hope is that the EU emerges from this in a more coherent way. In the short term, however, Europe does not have control of the narrative on geopolitics – it has allowed itself to be painted as weak and ineffective, which is not entirely true.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland’s Unique Position&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this very dramatic and often worrying context, Ireland is an oddity in Europe. The political debate in Ireland is very different from the topics that dominate the headlines in countries like France and Germany. Economically, Ireland is fiscally better off than most EU states but spends next to nothing on defence (Ireland spends an eighth of the EU average on defence) and in effect Ireland has no security infrastructure. It used to be the case that our geography acted as a shield to geopolitics, but today our skies and waters (and undersea cables) are active threat zones that are policed by NATO member states. In 2008, Ireland was unprepared for an international financial crisis, and the risk now is that it is unprepared for a geopolitical crisis, notably at a time when, in many people’s eyes, Ireland’s political relationship with the US is changing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Relevance and Perception in the EU&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland used to be a more relevant European power, but there has been a shift towards the East (Poland and Baltic States for instance) at the country level in the EU, as well as a centralisation of other powers by the Commission president. Ireland continues to suffer from a view, in other EU countries, that it is a form of tax haven, but that perspective ignores the underlying strength in the Irish economy, the ease of doing business – compared to say France, and the reality that Ireland has become financially very solid. The importance of the EU to Ireland can see seen in at least two examples. The solidarity that the EU showed Ireland during the Brexit negotiations has become an example for other crises, notably the way the Danish prime minister was received in European capitals following president Trump’s proposal to ‘take’ Greenland. The other is the illustration, through Brexit, of what life outside the EU can look like.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Future Challenges and Opportunities&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, Ireland will follow the path of the European project, and it should feel emboldened to play a part in that. In this respect, there are several challenges and opportunities. The first challenge is to bolster defence and security spending, not so much to please our neighbours but to ensure that Ireland can independently defend its borders, maritime area, and airspace. The cost of doing so will be significant if done correctly (up to 5% of GDP for ten years), given the lack of defence infrastructure. The upside is that in a fast-changing world the nature of defence infrastructure is changing fast – unmanned underwater drones are replacing submarines for example. Ireland may also very soon be called upon to invest in EU defence bonds in coming months. The second challenge is to rewire Ireland’s economy, a need that is often debated but where action has lagged. It may well be that tariffs do not cause multinationals in Ireland to shut capacity – many of them are implanted in the economy, but rather regulatory arbitrage by social media giants like Meta causes them specifically to leave Ireland. There can be no excuse for not preparing the economy for a smaller multinational presence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;EU Strategic Projects&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, there are two very strategic projects at the EU level that Ireland has the capacity to harness. One is the move towards strategic autonomy – investment in critical technologies such as semiconductors, quantum, and AI to name a few. Ireland does not rank as a ‘deep tech’ powerhouse, but there are areas in this field that it can concentrate on. One implication here is that our education system will need to change, with a greater focus on applied teaching of languages in schools, science and engineering in universities and the creation of specific poles of excellence across third level education. A second broad area of opportunity is EU capital markets union (CMU), a project that has been driven by the Irish head of the euro-zone, but where there has so far been considerable pushback, including from Ireland. Wealth creation and deep capital markets are two areas where America and increasingly China are pulling ahead of Europe. As a result, there is growing urgency in the EU to re-examine the CMU, which is not exactly a vote winner, but more important to the future of Europe than many think. Ireland has work to do here – examine how the CMU can drive new pockets of growth in our economy, how it will impact the banking sector and how the state can encourage Irish households to invest more.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What next?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Geopolitics is happening very quickly, and for Ireland, the effect is to push it closer to the EU and arguably away from the Anglophone countries (the UK may also find itself edging closer to the EU). This adjustment process will entail much greater spending on defence, and the opportunity to find new economic growth sectors. Critically, with very little urgency being shown in Ireland with respect to the implications of the changing world order, we have to wonder what else needs to occur to trigger a rethink of Ireland’s stance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Ireland and the EU

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A week ago, I started reading Admiral Jim Stavridis and Elliott Akerman’s second book, ‘2054’, which like the first (‘2034’) is a work of fiction designed to tell us about how our own world is evolving and the risks that will confront us. Without spoiling the plot, ‘2054’ demonstrates how new technologies can be deployed in nefarious ways, with the goal of turning the tide of geopolitics. However, as much as I enjoy the work of the Stavridis/Akerman team, my reaction to ‘2054’ was much the same as ‘2034’ (‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2021/04/24/2034-are-we-already-there/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jo5nASZK5_ipWutSpDLPaGmbBamTrno3D7ySvl_SawZQx25b7cXfJ4ELywTz1_C4pizt2Hc7z2mWqSrhY8oD8qEE$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;2034 – are we already there?’&lt;/a&gt;), which is that it has been rendered out of date by bizarre events in the real, political world&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The detonation of over seventy years of American diplomacy and soft power by the various speeches and deeds of the Trump administration is&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.newstalk.com/podcasts/breakfast-business/will-europe-look-to-trade-more-with-china-and-india__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jo5nASZK5_ipWutSpDLPaGmbBamTrno3D7ySvl_SawZQx25b7cXfJ4ELywTz1_C4pizt2Hc7z2mWqSrhYw-x2n2R$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;a fin de siècle moment&lt;/a&gt;, that has drawn comment across the diplomatic world (the most pertinent was that of the Singaporean defence minister who described how he saw the USA moving from a force for ‘moral legitimacy’ to a landlord seeking rent’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The worry now is that the US will treat its allies like enemies and its foes like friends. There was much consternation in Europe, but as this note has argued so many times, very few European countries have faced up to the challenges of the post-globalized world (&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/video/european-parliamentary-week-2025-keynote-speech-by-mario-draghi-former-italian-prime-minister-and-former-president-of-the-european-central-bank_I267271__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jo5nASZK5_ipWutSpDLPaGmbBamTrno3D7ySvl_SawZQx25b7cXfJ4ELywTz1_C4pizt2Hc7z2mWqSrhY7-W1nx-$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Mario Draghi’s speech to the EU parliament&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;last week put it very well…’do something!’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There is now a furore over Eur 500 bn defence bonds, joint nuclear shields and defence equipment shopping lists. But, a more urgent task than buying fighter jets is the need for Europe to have a coherent security strategy. In a weekend where many are anticipating the results of the German election, a neglected development was the collapse of government formation talks between Austria’s centre-right OVP and the far-right FPO.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Some weeks ago, the parties had agreed on an economic programme, but could not settle on a common foreign policy, a critical stumbling point was oversight of the intelligence services (the OVP wanted to be in charge). This is a sensitive topic given that the FPO has a soft spot for the Kremlin, and specifically the fact that in 2018 the Herbert Kickl (FPO leader), when he was Austria’s interior minister, ordered an investigation into the country’s security services. Today, few of its EU peers share intelligence with Austria.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Reflecting that, the immediate challenge from Russia is infiltration, sabotage and manipulation across Europe (the Gerasimov doctrine and David Kilcullen’s work on Russian/Chinese tactics are both worth a read here ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2021/11/13/great-war-to-total-war/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jo5nASZK5_ipWutSpDLPaGmbBamTrno3D7ySvl_SawZQx25b7cXfJ4ELywTz1_C4pizt2Hc7z2mWqSrhYwf0W_nJ$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;From Great War to Total War’&lt;/a&gt;). The EU has done relatively little to push back on this interference, and now has an urgent security (as well as defence) challenge.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This could take various forms.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is to penalise EU states that systematically go against the grain of the policies, values and interests of the Union. Hungary is the main offender here and whilst some EU funds have been withheld from Viktor Orban, the EU has in general failed to confront him. In the recent past there has been talk in the European parliament of excluding Hungary from the EU, which is technically difficult, but is a necessary part of a more ideologically consistent Europe, and one where bad actors face a penalty for their actions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A second strand is to have much greater oversight over the movement of Russians in Europe, and of their capital. Vienna, Milan and the south of France, not to mention parts of Switzerland, are popular destinations for wealthy Russians and some European capitals are saturated with Russian money (Mark Hollingsworth’s book ‘Londongrad’ is instructive here as is Oliver Bullough’s ‘Butler to the World’). To emphasise the point, Russian interference in UK and lately Irish politics has not been aggressively countered, and my fear is that this is much worse in other countries like Germany.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Instead of clamouring to buy rocket launchers, Europe’s political classes have a lot to do domestically to shut the door on Russian interference in European affairs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then, on a more structural level, there is scope for much greater intelligence sharing across governments and joint task-forces on organised crime (gangs are a favourite extension of the Russian state). From the point of hardware, there is a need for increased joint use of satellites and electronic warfare collaboration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The distinction between security and defence is an important and urgent one and a reminder of how complacent European governments have been. Whilst defence capabilities will take time to build up, the measures to be enacted in the security domain are less challenging to operationalise but constitute a real test of European governments’ mettle.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Full Mettle Jacket

&lt;p&gt;This month, the Unio Global Macro Council (GMC) Outlook discusses the potential outcome of Sunday’s German elections.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Key issues are immigration, economy, and military spending.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This election is set against a backdrop of significant geopolitical and economic challenges, including the Munich Peace Conference&#39;s recent pronouncements from American officials, urging Europe to take a greater role in its defence, particularly concerning Ukraine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We were delighted to be joined this month by guest speakers Dr Martin Moryson, Global Head of Economics, DWS Group and Simona Gambarini, Senior Market Strategist, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Thank you both for your valued input.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/GMC-Outlook-February-2025.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;More in this month&#39;s GMC Outlook.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

German Revival?

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Conor Jordan, private client adviser in Unio&#39;s Independent Wealth team, discusses the rise in tech sector redundancies in Ireland, providing practical advice for managing finances during redundancy, including balancing short-term needs with long-term planning, managing outgoings, considering investments, clearing debts, and making pension &#39;top-up&#39; payments. The article also emphasises the importance of seeking expert financial advice to navigate this transition and ensure long-term financial security. 4 minutes read.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It will be no surprise to read that in Ireland, there has been a significant increase in the number of redundancies within the tech sector.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;According to Eurofound (the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions), Ireland accounts for the largest proportion (around 40%) of all redundancies in the tech sector in the EU.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sixteen of the top twenty global tech companies and the top three enterprise software providers base their European Operations in Ireland, and 106,000 people are employed within the ICT industry.[i]&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The ‘Great Tech Reset’ began in 2022 and gathered pace into 2023 with an estimated 428,449 global tech workers losing their jobs.[ii] This continued into 2024 with over 150,000 cuts across 542 companies[iii] and according to &lt;a href=&quot;https://layoffs.fyi/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Layoffs.fyi&lt;/a&gt;, the first 2 months of 2025 has seen 47 tech companies lay off a further 11,663 employees.[iv]&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In January 2025 both Meta and Workday announced that they would be looking to make further cuts to their workforce this year. Meta will look to reduce their global workforce by around 5%[v] while Workday plans to cut 1,750 roles.[vi] Both companies employ approximately two thousand people through their Irish operation and those employees are waiting to hear how many of them will be affected by the redundancies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In today&#39;s economic landscape, for clients impacted by circumstances out of their control, facing redundancy can be a challenging chapter in one&#39;s career.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Amidst the potential emotional and financial stress of redundancy, making informed and considered decisions about your finances can be difficult.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Balancing the Short and Long-Term Considerations&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Redundancy often brings a lump sum severance payment, providing a financial cushion during the transition period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The immediate, shorter term financial decisions you make during this period could have an impact on your long-term financial health. It can be challenging to balance these more pressurized, short-term decisions while keeping your longer-term financial plan on track.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;5 top tips for managing your finances during a redundancy:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;-&lt;/strong&gt;Taking prudent steps to manage your outgoings insofar as it is possible.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The potential investment of the lump sum for the long-term, if you have another employment to move to, or if you have a sufficient emergency fund already in place.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Considering whether to clear debt, either mortgage related or more expensive short-term debt such as credit cards or car loans.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The decision as to how you elect to receive your redundancy payment, and particular waiving or retaining your pension tax-free lump sum.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Making a pension ‘top-up’ payment, if possible, to offset the potential interruption of contributions to your pension fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Need for Expert Financial Advice&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Seeking professional financial advice becomes paramount during this time. The stress of redundancy may hinder clear, strategic thinking about long-term financial planning. Financial Planners can offer clarity, guiding you through the options and ensuring your decisions align with your long-term financial goals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Expert advice can provide a clear roadmap, offering insights into optimizing your redundancy payment’s impact, it’s interaction with your pension fund and outlining clearly the steps you might take to safeguard your financial future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial Planning should contribute to all aspects of your wellbeing – financial, physical, mental and psychological. We are here to offer straightforward advice, to provide structured Financial Planning and to offer comfort that you are focused on things that you can control.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sources:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] https://www.idaireland.com/explore-your-sector/business-sectors/technology&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] https://techfundingnews.com/the-ripple-effect-of-big-tech-what-can-we-learn-from-startup-layoffs-in-2025&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/10/tech-layoffs-2024-list&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] https://layoffs.fyi&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/0212/1496282-irish-based-meta-staff-told-of-job-cuts&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/0212/1496282-irish-based-meta-staff-told-of-job-cuts&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] https://www.businesspost.ie/tech-news/fears-for-irish-job-losses-at-workday-after-firm-announces-plans-to-cut-1750-roles.&lt;/p&gt;

Navigating Redundancy in the Tech Sector

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;In this article, Shane Keegan explores common biases that investors often face when making financial decisions. He shares insights on how these biases can affect your investment choices and overall financial health. By recognising and addressing these biases, you can make more rational and informed decisions to help you achieve your long-term financial goals. Enjoy this quick 4-minute read!&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many people choose the start of a new year to review their situations and make plans for the months ahead, setting realistic (and sometimes, unrealistic!) resolutions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While motivation is high, it is also the opportune time to review your current financial situation. Planning now can provide comfort for the year (or even years) ahead, ensuring you can spend the rest of your time focusing on what matters most to you.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We understand that with so many changes happening in the world (such as the recent US election, the resulting impending tariffs and ECB interest rate changes to name a small few), it can be difficult to ensure you keep yourself on track and don’t succumb to any noise being generated from outside sources.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;Recognising biases is one thing but addressing them requires a different approach as these are often emotional responses that influence our behaviour. Below, I outline some biases that you may find familiar:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Market Timing&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Market Timing is where someone believes they can predict the markets. This leads people to believe they can buy / switch into a fund at a low price just before it goes up in value, allowing them to take advantage of this price increase. Unfortunately, a lot of people who believe they can time the market to their advantage do the opposite, buying high and then seeing a decline in fund values. This can lead to a false sense of urgency and trigger transactions that may not be advisable, such as claiming pensions early and risking their entire long-term retirement strategy in the process.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Recency Bias&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Recency Bias occurs when someone places too much stock on recent events rather than looking at the overall trend. An example of the impact on individuals is when they assume a fund will continue to perform well based on recent success, only to experience a subsequent decline in value. In terms of financial planning, this bias can result in portfolios that lack diversification, leading to sub-optimal performance, particularly when planning for retirement.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Anchoring&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Anchoring is where people base their decision on the first or most recent piece of information they receive. It can then lead to difficulty in adjusting their views when new information comes to light. Like Recency Bias, this can lead people to remain invested in the wrong fund or asset allocation. From a financial planning point of view, this can put long term strategy and your financial goals in jeopardy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Familiarity Bias&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Familiarity (or Loyalty) Bias can occur when people develop an emotional attachment to a particular fund or stock. This may happen to people who have worked in a particular industry or with the same company for a long period of time and feel a loyalty towards them. People often prefer familiarity, which can offer comfort. However, this can sometimes result in suboptimal investment decisions or long-term performance issues due to a lack of diversification in their portfolios.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Overconfidence&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Overconfidence can occur when people believe they have more control over their investments than they do. This can happen when people go against advice or do things on their own without fully understanding the consequences of their decisions (see Timing the Market above). This can result in selecting inappropriate funds or products for their circumstances, potentially leading to suboptimal investment returns, missing out on available tax breaks, or incurring higher fees that negatively affect their overall growth potential.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Loss Aversion&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Loss Aversion occurs when people fear the risk of potentially losing some (or all) of their funds to investment performance more than they wish to see potential returns. In fact, studies have shown that people feel losses twice as much as they celebrate any gains when it comes to fund performance. This can have a detrimental effect as the real value of their money can erode over time if it fails to keep pace with inflation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Framing Effect&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Framing Effect occurs when people make decisions based on how information is framed rather than the facts it is presenting. This can be related to many of the previous examples and may result in people choosing funds that underperform or have higher charges than expected. For instance, a product brochure might highlight fees selectively, resulting in individuals paying more than they realise when there may be another similar product offering the same service with lower overall charges.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio our advisers are experts in navigating these pitfalls and can offer practical and transparent advice to suit your unique circumstances. We can help you cut through the noise and make a plan that is suitable to your individual needs.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We believe that making a plan and sticking to it is crucial to success. We understand that true risk lies not in responding to market volatility or trends, but in failing to meet your long-term goals. We will put in the work to guide you through each step of your journey so you can rest easy knowing your plans will become a reality.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We listen to your story to help make your goals a reality and work with you to ensure you have time to focus on what is most important to you.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser, or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Overcoming Investor Bias

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning February 10th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week&#39;s investment briefing📽️&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/wJ1ROIvz1TE?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️&amp;nbsp;The biggest macro news of the week is the German Election next weekend: Christian Democrats lead with 30%; far-right AfD rises to 21%&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for January to be released on February 19th&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️&amp;nbsp;US housing starts and building permits for January due on February 19th&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️&amp;nbsp;Japanese inflation data release on February 21st; current rate at 3.6%&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️&amp;nbsp;HSBC earnings on February 19th; stock up 37.6% in the past year&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Walmart earnings on February 20th; stock up 77.5% in 2024&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, talk to us: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View, Week Beginning 17th February, 2025

&lt;p&gt;Will Europe look to trade more with China and India and less with its natural ally the US?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What will Europe do if America abandons Ukraine and imposes tariffs on its erstwhile allies?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To discuss this and more Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director, Unio Wealth Management joined Newstalk&#39;s Joe Lynam this morning ahead of today&#39;s emergency European summit in Paris.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://link.goloudplayer.com/s/pGsEILdqd3u1&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;📻 Listen here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Unio on Newstalk

&lt;p&gt;The number 13 tram in Zurich winds its way through the centre of the city before turning and pushing uphill to the Uetliberg. The inhabitants of the tram are typically older people and bank employees, but occasionally you might come across a few excited, wealthy individuals journeying to look at their gold in the Credit Suisse (now UBS of course) building at Uetlihof. The entrance to the building is on the 8th floor, betraying a deep underground complex where it is said, the bank stores gold bars, and sometimes invites the owners of the gold to view their stash.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Those investors who own gold will be very happy.&amp;nbsp;It has returned 40% in the past two years and is now closing in on the USD 3,000 level, despite a stronger dollar and high interest rates.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are few assets like gold. The vast majority of investors do not hold it, nor have they a sense of how its price behaves. But there are others who are passionate about gold and hold large quantities of it in their portfolios. Finance theory suggests investors should hold 2% of gold in a portfolio, but my experience is that in practice, it is either 0% or greater than 10%. To that end gold is a ‘Marmite’ asset class, because like the Marmite spread, you either love it or hate it.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It used to be that a difficult interview question for graduates was to ask them what the drivers of the gold price are. Now that question is more likely to focus on the drivers of bitcoin. Bitcoin’s architects likely wanted it to behave like digital gold, but instead it seems to trade like digital Nasdaq futures on steroids.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The gold price has perhaps three drivers – the role of gold as a monetary variable, the effects of commodity or physical demand and its role as a store of value in times of crisis.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Typically, gold as a ‘rival’ for paper money is driven by changes in the monetary environment – namely the value of the dollar and medium-term interest rates. For example, from the early 2000’s onwards the price of gold has moved inversely with the inflation adjusted yield on ten-year US bonds (rising bond yields tend to be bad for gold). But, in 2022, something funny happened – inflation adjusted bond yields rose, but gold kept rising and has not stopped since. Indeed, I now see more and more financial headlines that ‘gold is breaking out’, which is likely a sign that the ‘top’ is not far away.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The strength of the gold price is curious because in many quarters demand for gold has been muted – according to the Banque de France, demand for gold is made up of jewellery (49%),&amp;nbsp;central banks (23%), financial investors (21%) and the electronics sector (7%).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In 2024, Chinese and Indian households have been buying more gold, and before that, emerging economy central banks – notably Russia and South Africa had been buyers, most probably to diversify out of dollars and euros given the risk of sanctions and asset confiscation. Financial holders of gold, exchange traded funds (ETF’s) have not been heavy buyers. Overall though, commercial and financial demand for gold has not been dramatically strong in the past eighteen months.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That still leaves a big chunk of gold’s outperformance unexplained (if it were only driven by the interest rate environment gold would likely be trading close to USD 2,000 given the stubbornness of high bond yields). There are likely two factors at play.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is technical. There is a short squeeze taking place in the gold market, which means that a lot of financial actors (bullion banks and speculators) have short positions in gold (hoping that the price will go down) and now have to buy gold to cover loss making positions. This short-squeeze is exacerbated by a spike in demand for physical gold because of fears of tariffs on gold and silver (from Canada – home to many gold miners).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second factor that is more interesting and harder to calibrate is geopolitics. Gold is a pure store of value – an asset to run to when the world is turned upside down. For those who live adventurous lives, a belt with gold coins sown in is a good escape plan (I have met at least one person with this plan). In a week where the global security architecture has been dismantled by the Trump administration, the reasons for holding gold are clear.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The disintegration of relations between the US and China, the uncertainty caused by tariffs and generally weak government finances across the G2 and G7 countries are just a couple of more detailed reasons to own gold. In that sense it is a barometer of ‘Trump’s world’, but also highly susceptible to his actions – he could send gold much higher if he announces tariffs on gold, but the prospect that he could let Russia off the financial hook as it were, is a reason to call the top.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Marmite

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;The article discusses the importance of regularly reviewing your finances with the help of a qualified financial adviser. It highlights the benefits of financial reviews, including achieving financial goals, saving more, reducing debt, and gaining confidence in financial decisions. 3&amp;nbsp;minutes read.&lt;/em&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Let’s face it: managing your money is not always simple. Between saving for retirement, paying off your mortgage, helping your children or grandchildren through school or university, and planning holidays, it can feel like there’s never enough money or time to figure it all out.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Taking a step back from day-to-day concerns to take an in-depth and holistic view of finances, with the help of an expert qualified financial adviser, is time well spent. It is also among the best investments that you can make in yourself and your future.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Why have a Financial Review?&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A financial Review is like your financial GPS and helps you map out how to reach your financial goals. It’s not about restricting yourself – it is about making your money work for you. And no, you do not have to give up all the fun stuff (your Netflix subscription is safe!)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The simplest way to stay on top of your finances is checking in on them at least once a year. A financial adviser can help you figure out where you stand and what steps to take. Think of it as your guide to everything from growing your savings to protecting your loved ones.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Research shows that individuals who review their finances regularly tend to save more, accumulate less debt, and feel more confident about their finances.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;While every client is unique, there is a common theme: everyone has life goals and financial triggers such as saving for their children&#39;s education or their retirement,&quot; says David Tighe, Head of Unio Wealth Solutions. &quot;Our team is committed to offering personalised advice and support, giving you peace of mind while helping you make the most of your financial resources.&quot;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Reviewing your finances regularly ensures you are prepared.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Perhaps you have changed jobs, paid off debts, bought property or had another major life event. These changes can seriously impact your finances. A quick check up - reviewing your pension plans, insurance plans, and investments every year keeps everything in sync and can prevent big surprises down the line.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Consulting with a financial adviser provides the foundation of sound financial planning. Embrace the new year as a chance to review your financial goals and put yourself on a sound financial path.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio’s Expertise &lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Wealth Solutions Team combines an expert advisory team with a digitally enabled approach. Our streamlined processes mean we can spend more time focusing on your unique needs. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For our clients, this translates to a faster service, peace of mind and confidence in knowing that our expert advisory team is handling every detail.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you would like to find out more about how you can take control of your financial future, reach out to your Unio adviser by emailing&lt;a href=&quot;mailto:wealthsolutions@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; wealthsolutions@unio.ie&amp;nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Lynda McAuliffe QFA RPA FPRA is a private client adviser with our Wealth Solutions team at Unio Wealth Management. Lynda is based in Unio&#39;s Cork office.&lt;/p&gt;

Why Reviewing Your Finances Matters

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning February 10th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week&#39;s investment briefing📽️&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/W_3lV3Q-ixk?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ The focus is on US Headline and Core inflation statistics for January. Current headline and core inflation rates are 2.9% and 3.2% annually.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is at its highest level since the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown, as markets continue to digest policy initiatives set by the Trump administration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Closer to home, UK Year-on-Year and preliminary Q4 GDP data to be released. Whilst growth has slowed considerably over the last 2 years, it’s still expected that the UK economy will grow by 1.1%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ In earnings news: Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Nestle, and Cisco all release their quarterly earnings this week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;talk to us here. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View, Week Beginning 10th February, 2025

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Have you spent time living and working in the UK? You can maximise your pension benefits by understanding your UK State Pension entitlements and how voluntary National Insurance Contributions (NICs) can fill gaps in your record. This article guides you through the intricacies of the UK State Pension system, providing clear and concise steps to ensure you receive the maximum benefits you are entitled to.&amp;nbsp;4 minutes read.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Did you know that, if you have worked and paid National Insurance (NI) in the UK, you may be able to claim a UK State Pension in addition to any Irish state pension you are entitled to?&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;What is even better is that you can make additional voluntary NI Contributions (NICs) which could increase your entitlement.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Paying UK voluntary NICs enables individuals to fill any gaps in their National Insurance record to boost their State Pension.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Deadline Approaching&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Individuals can usually only fill gaps in their NI record for the previous 6 years. However, as part of transitional arrangements introduced alongside the new State Pension from April 2016&lt;u&gt;,&lt;/u&gt; individuals were given the opportunity to pay voluntary NICs to make up any gaps in their NI record from 2006.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Deadline Extended Until 05 April 2025&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You have until the 5th of April 2025 to pay voluntary contributions to make up for gaps from 2006 and&lt;u&gt; &lt;/u&gt;after this deadline, you will only be able to pay contributions to cover the previous six years.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Am I eligible?&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Under current UK state pension rules, you need 35 qualifying years to be eligible for the full standard rate.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You must have &lt;strong&gt;10 qualifying years&lt;/strong&gt; on your national insurance record to receive the minimum UK State Pension.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A qualifying year is a year where you were;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;o&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;working and made National Insurance contributions&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;o&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;received National Insurance Credits, for example if you were ill, unemployed or a carer&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;o&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Paying voluntary National Insurance contributions&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland and the UK have a social security agreement which allows you to combine your pension contributions from both countries to meet the minimum eligibility requirements. For example, if you have worked 8 years in the UK and 4 years in Ireland, these can be combined to meet the 10-year requirement for the UK State Pension. It will be based on the number of years you contributed to the UK, and you may also be entitled to a portion of the Irish State Pension.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Alternatively, even if you have not worked the required amount of time to reach the minimum 10 years, you can make voluntary contributions to increase your record if you already have three years contributions. ‘&lt;strong&gt;Buy Back&lt;/strong&gt;’ is often the term used for these voluntary contributions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You can continue to pay voluntary contributions each year going forward and if you have enough years left until you retire, you could reach the 35-year threshold and claim the full UK state pension.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How much does it cost to buy back years?&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The rates for the 2024 to 2025 tax year are:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;£3.45&lt;/strong&gt; a week for &lt;strong&gt;Class 2&lt;/strong&gt; contributions (£179.40 p.a.)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;£17.45 &lt;/strong&gt;a week for &lt;strong&gt;Class 3&lt;/strong&gt; contributions (£907.40 p.a.)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You usually pay the current rate when you make a voluntary contribution.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Each year purchased will increase your State Pension entitlement by £329 per annum&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Class 2&lt;/strong&gt; contributions apply to anyone living abroad and working abroad, but only if you worked in the UK immediately before leaving, and you have previously lived in the UK for at least 3 years in a row or paid at least 3 years of contributions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Class 3&lt;/strong&gt; contributions apply to anyone living abroad and not working, but only if at some point you have lived in the UK for at least 3 years in a row or paid at least 3 years of contributions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is important to note, the cost of paying voluntary contributions/buying back years, is paid from personal funds.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;UK State Pensions are subject to tax. However, under the Double Taxation Agreement between Ireland and the UK, individuals should not be taxed twice on the same income.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What do you need to do ahead of the April deadline&lt;/strong&gt;?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Check your UK State Pension Forecast&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The forecast allows you to see your projected state pension entitlement based on your paid contributions. To check your UK State Pension forecast, you can do so either by phone, website, or post.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Phone&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To receive this forecast by phone, you can contact the Future Pension Centre &lt;strong&gt;- &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.gov.uk/future-pension-centre&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;contact details are listed here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Website&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.gov.uk/check-state-pension&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;You can apply online here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; i&lt;/strong&gt;f you have a Government Gateway ID.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Post&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would prefer to do this by post, you would be required to complete a BR19 Form&lt;a href=&quot;https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64366b69cc99800013b89381/br19-interactive-application-for-a-state-pension-statement.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt; which may be found here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Pay Voluntary Contributions&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once your forecast information has been confirmed and if you wish to proceed with paying voluntary contributions, your next steps are listed below.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Apply to HM Revenue and Customs for voluntary contributions ahead of the deadline.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;The relevant Form CF83&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/guidance/apply-to-pay-ni-contributions-abroad/start/about-this-guidance&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt; may be found here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt;. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For further information refer to the following links or reach out to your Unio adviser.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.gov.uk/government/news/deadline-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions-extended-to-april-2025&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Extending the deadline for voluntary National Insurance contributions. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;·&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/social-security-abroad-ni38/guidance-on-social-security-abroad-ni38&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Guidance on Social Security abroad: NI38&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the author&lt;/strong&gt;: &lt;em&gt;Sarah Dunlea is a Financial Planner with Unio Wealth Management and has a wealth of experience working with high-net-worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&lt;/em&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Have you checked your UK State Pension Entitlements?

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Does anyone remember the Washington Consensus? Such a phrase might seem odd in today’s world but in the early 1990’s the notion of a ‘Washington Consensus’ was very powerful as a method for globalisation, and hotly debated by the left.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Globalisation worked well because, to be overly simplistic, it was facilitated by a very clear world order that helped to establish the rules of the ‘globalisation game’ and the norms associated with this. At their core, these rules were American, or at the very least, they were made in Washington within the institutions that were set up to marshal the post-World War II world order, the IMF (International Monetary Fund), the World Bank and the United Nations in New York. America held the purse strings of these organisations and regular meetings at these institutions became a means of schooling ministers from both developing and emerging economies in the ways of American economic power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;These discussions aired what soon became known as the ‘Washington Consensus’ – effectively an approach to world economic development and globalisation, that was denounced by critics on the left as a neo-liberal policy recipe book. With the benefit of hindsight today, the Washington Consensus was valuable in the sense that it was a consensus– though perhaps not agreed – it encapsulated an approach that many countries were content to go along with as part of their first foray into real economic development.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Today, the Washington Consensus is in disarray. The institutions that it was built around, like the IMF are defunct, and others like the WTO have been undermined by both China and the US in recent years. The decision of the US to leave the World Health Organisation is another blow. The ‘Consensus’ is dead because there are now other competing methods as to how countries can develop, and of the independent paths they can take. Here, an important milestone was Xi Jinping’s China Dream speech, in November 2012, which well before MAGA (Make America Great Again) coined the term ‘China Dream’ during a visit to the National Museum of China. Now, countries like Indonesia or Nigeria can try to follow the classical Western model of development, or China’s non-democratic, state led approach. Or, like Argentina and El Salvador, they can pursue the ‘Trumpian’ model that is taking a grip on Washington, but that is anything but a ‘Consensus’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Without going into the day-by-day developments coming from the White House, the second Trump presidency can be seen as a stage in the post-globalisation world order. Globalisation was based on American economic and political strength and promulgated by the ‘Washington Consensus’ and the B-52’s of American capitalism (multinationals). Eventually globalisation ran out of steam, and events like Brexit, the first Trump presidency and the snuffing out of Hong Kong’s democracy shattered it. We are now in a multi-polar world where at least three large powers (EU, China and the US) do things increasingly differently (look at how they treat AI).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Uniquely, this Trump presidency represents an attempt to do something new, and can be seen as an early stage in the formation of the new world order, and to an extent its success depends on the will and the coherence of the groups of people that are driving the Trump project (from sectors like private equity, innovation and wealthy families). One stark difference with globalization is already clear. Globalization was built on the US being umbilically tied to much of the rest of the world, and vice versa, by flows of ideas, money, trade and people. In contrast, it now seems that Trump 2.0 relies on American exceptionalism, attempting to rise above the rest of the world, and in the process severing the relationships and ties built up since the end of the First World War.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, consider the words delivered to &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-before-the-canadian-parliament-ottawa__;!!O22_8FOSssc!k4bBqMZCUxMjUlGnV2Ju8mQZki9K1DsirG07FcQUfaukBO_tVo14m7dTbjVpT5ni1MSxzA48r04mCLY_RoDv--mU$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Canadians by President Kennedy&lt;/a&gt; in May 1961 ‘Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies’ and how remarkably different they are to the way the Donald Trump has treated Canada.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context, the rest of the world may increasingly choose to avoid America, and the risk to ‘Exceptional America’, notably with the dollar as strong as it is, is that its financial power ebbs, in the way that of many other empires has. The template for this is expertly laid out in Barry Eichengren’s ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.nber.org/papers/w24145__;!!O22_8FOSssc!k4bBqMZCUxMjUlGnV2Ju8mQZki9K1DsirG07FcQUfaukBO_tVo14m7dTbjVpT5ni1MSxzA48r04mCLY_RmHZmXUe$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Mars or Mercury’&lt;/a&gt; paper that analysed the link between empires and their monies, though I feel that in the absence of obviously strong competing currencies, this thesis could take time to play out.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A more plausible side-effect of ‘exceptional’ America, is the advent of a new point of economic gravity, pinpointed at the UAE (United Arab Emirates). This is my ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/w-e-n-a&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Fourth Pole’ thesis&lt;/a&gt; – that the UAE together with India and Saudi Arabia has the makings of a new pole of trade and commercial activity, with low regulatory barriers and that encompasses a potentially huge market (Prof Afshin Molavi calculates that there are 2.5bn bn people within five hours flying time of Abu Dhabi). The Mercosur trade deal between Latin America and the EU might also be the basis for a new trade corridor.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The other necessary outcome in a world where America is going its own way, is that Europe stops trying to contain Trump, and takes a far more aggressive stance with respect to its risk environment, notably Russia. The German election in two week’s time might be the start of that stance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Remember the Washington Consensus?

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Technology happens quickly. This time two years ago, few people had heard about ChatGPT, and few investors knew what Nvidia did. On January 6th 2023, I wrote a note entitled ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2023/01/06/talos/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jW_fkXuO5C243TaS3Eyb8QWlrZB8KR1DxOQl04Cjx6CP7IfDe0-ZfpfCtz9clZzhoC9B_ooY-M-mx6qRb8SqOBhk$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Talos&lt;/a&gt;’ where I remarked...&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;’A recent development here is the arrival of ChatGPT an interactive ‘intelligent’ bot that has been developed by OpenAI (set up seven years ago to build socially constructive AI, and recently valued at USD 30bn). ChatGPT is catching on quickly, not least because students have found that it can write half decent essays. I recently tested it out, asking for a response to the question ‘Is globalization over?’- the result is below, and in my humble opinion is a good rendition of the kind of response that a ‘two handed economist’ might give (‘on one hand…on the other’). I think I can just about do better, and if there is any lesson to draw it is for human writers to be more opinionated, quirky or style driven in how they write. I am not out of a job just yet.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I am still writing, and don’t use ChatGPT to do so. In January 2023, my presumption was that because ChatGPT had already been in place for some time, investors knew about it and had factored it into share prices (the theory of efficient markets in finance says that all publicly available information is quickly reflected in market prices).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This was not the case, and with hindsight, I realise that students of economic and finance of the 1990’s spent far too much time imbibing the ‘efficient markets hypothesis’, which was a big thing at the time and the&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.princeton.edu/*ceps/workingpapers/91malkiel.pdf__;fg!!O22_8FOSssc!jW_fkXuO5C243TaS3Eyb8QWlrZB8KR1DxOQl04Cjx6CP7IfDe0-ZfpfCtz9clZzhoC9B_ooY-M-mx6qRbyp67IFO$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; big guns of academic finance raged about it into the 2000’s&lt;/a&gt;. I suspect that more people today believe markets are rigged than efficient, with the rigging done by vampire squid type funds and central banks, to name a few culprits.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The performance of AI centric stocks (notably Nvidia) shows that the early promise of AI was underestimated, perhaps to the extent to which it is overestimated today. Indeed, the concentration of the top ten companies in the US stock market (they make up 40% of the market capitalisation) is as high as it only has been in 1930. In that context, the apparent supplanting of ChatGPT by DeepSeek (we might call it ‘Chatccp’) in the Apple app store is a reality check.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It is also an efficient markets check. I had seen the initial model test results from DeepSeek at the start of this year (Azeem Azhar’s blog had mentioned it back in November, and also as far back as &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-451?utm_source=substack&amp;amp;utm_medium=email__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jW_fkXuO5C243TaS3Eyb8QWlrZB8KR1DxOQl04Cjx6CP7IfDe0-ZfpfCtz9clZzhoC9B_ooY-M-mx6qRb-FaIfTY$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;December 2023&lt;/a&gt;). To that end, the technology world has been well aware of DeepSeek for months, so it is a surprise, and another slap in the face for efficient markets hypothesis (I am still a little obsessed about this).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whatever about efficient markets, the advent of DeepSeek is a reminder of how the cycle of innovation in economies works, and will have some commentators rushing for their Schumpeter. The Austrian economist coined the term ‘creative destruction’, but his views on capitalism are worth re-reading for he believed that it would undermine itself (different cohorts or corporates would effectively block the system) and collapse. His work on business cycles is also well overdue a comeback.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;We don’t quite know whether DeepSeek (who claim to have produced superior model results compared to ChatGPT and Claude AI for a fraction of the cost) have been helped by the Chinese state, whether any espionage is involved nor the extent to which they have piggybacked on work already done by US based teams. Nor is it too important that the bandwidth of the model is restricted in China and that it is unlikely to be widely used in the West.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The important development is that the cost of production threshold for large AI models has been set much lower. Other cheaper models are on the way, Bytedance&#39;s Doubao-1.5 or Moonshot&#39;s Kimi k1.5 are two emerging examples.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;To that end, the first phase in the AI boom now comes to an end. Much like other key technology infrastructure breakthroughs – railway (railway companies made up 50% of the stock market in 1900), automobiles (France dominated the auto market from 1903 to 1929, at times manufacturing half of the world’s cars) to the internet (anyone remember AOL or Netscape”) – the initial innovation garners huge amounts of capital, is expected to change the world, which it does but often not in the ways investors expect. The legacy is usually a new web of infrastructure.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the next phase of AI, Investors will now not likely pay up for model developers but will focus on unique datasets, applications of AI (health) and the AI industrial supply chain - energy for AI for example (see last week’s note ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/humphrey&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Humphrey&lt;/a&gt;’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The view of the stock market, which quickly rebounded, is that the consumer is the winner – that DeepSeek opens up the prospect of cheaper, better AI for common use, and I think the investor conversation will turn to how this impacts consumption patterns and the way people work (from police officers to teachers).&amp;nbsp;The fact that the stock market took the positive view of the DeepSeek news suggests that the AI bubble in stocks is alive and well.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Elsewhere in AI, model development is accelerating in a sinister way. In a paper entitled &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/ai-red-line-b2687013.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;‘Frontier AI systems have surpassed the self-replicating red line’,&lt;/a&gt; scientists at Fudan university highlight how AI can build replicates of itself, and when this process runs into obstacles, demonstrate a survival instinct (such as rebooting hardware to fix errors). It strikes me that this is the real AI development we need to pay attention to.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Revenge of the Textbook

&lt;p&gt;The January Global Macro Council( GMC) Outlook highlights that 2025 might be the year to move away from expensive, high-performing assets that had strong momentum in 2024. Better diversification could lead to better long-term returns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this month&#39;s GMC, we were fortunate to be joined by guest speakers Moritz Brand Portfolio Manager at Invesco Quantitative Strategies and Fawaz A Chaudhry Partner &amp;amp; Head of Equities at Fulcrum Asset Management. Thank you both for your insights and expertise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-January-2025-_Year-of-the-Contrarian.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read this month&#39;s GMC outlook in full.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Market Trends&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Liquidity injections from central banks have driven momentum in markets over the last decade.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Expensive growth stocks have outperformed value stocks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The dollar has shown strong momentum in the past two years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Current Asset Valuations&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Significant capital is tied up in top technology firms, the dollar, and corporate bonds, all at all-time high valuations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The dollar is the most expensive it has been since the early nineties.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• US stock valuations are close to the highest levels since the late 1990s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The top fifteen US companies are worth as much as the Chinese and European equity markets combined.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Investment Strategy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• There is no bubble in the broad US market, but the significant amount of capital in very expensive dollar assets demands attention and action from investors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Better diversification, especially away from very expensive assets, could lead to better long-term returns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Influencing Factors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The collapse in long-term US bonds signals a resurgence of inflation and potential creditworthiness issues for the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• President Trump&#39;s executive orders on various topics might warrant a diversification strategy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Year of the Contrarian?

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning January 27th, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our investment brief in full 📽️:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/Lk2GB8wb0kQ?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ The Magnificent 7 will report quarterly results: Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla on the 29th; Apple on the 30th. These stocks have driven strong equity market performance in 2023 and 2024, dominating the S&amp;amp;P 500 index.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Following Trump&#39;s energy emergency declaration, investors await oil companies&#39; outlooks for the year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ On the macro side, the Federal Reserve&#39;s interest rate announcement is due on the 29th, with no change expected however there will be close attention to outlook and forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ In Europe, the ECB is set to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.9% on the 30th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;talk to us.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 27th January, 2025

&lt;p&gt;I’m glad to mention that my ‘GoldenEye’ note generated a lot of feedback, some of it cursing my good luck to spend a week in the Caribbean. To atone, I spent four days last week in the foggy cold of England, touring from Oxford to Manchester to the Cotswolds and finishing in London. Many of the places I visited are points of reference that I have known for a long time. Some have changed for the better (the Elizabeth line in London is very useful), some for the worse (this Manchester United team is indeed the worst ever), and some have not changed at all (the food at Pepper’s Burgers in Oxford is just as good as it was thirty years ago).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Economically and politically, Britain is worse off. Brexit has been a terrible misstep, and the new Labour government is struggling to even diagnose the sputtering economy. Real-wage growth is feeble, productivity is at multi-decade lows, the fiscal deficit dominates policy making and the bond market is more troubled than when Liz Truss was prime minister. The only saving grace is that Britain isn’t Germany.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In foreign policy, while Britain is an active supporter of Ukraine and still a UN Security Council member, it is at risk of becoming lost geopolitically – Britain is stranded outside the EU and the special relationship between Washington and London is all but dead politically in the Trump 2.0 era.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, Britain is good at remaking itself. I think that at some point it will have its ‘Brian’ moment when, to borrow from the Monty Python film (The Life of Brian), a political leader will emerge, haphazardly or by design, with the force of personality and ideas to right the country. Nigel Farage is not this person, and without being unkind, I am not sure that Keir Starmer is either.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It used to be the case that Britain didn’t need talented politicians; it had a large, expert civil service to run the country. Instead of ‘Brian’s’ it had ‘Humphreys’ after ‘Sir Humphrey Appleby’ the fictional cabinet secretary in the excellent 1980’s tv series ‘Yes, (Prime) Minister’. The series revolves around the art of non-decisions and the careful practice by civil servants of keeping elected officials far from the levers of power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When the engine of the economy was whirring, the job of the ‘Humphreys’ was to keep politicians from putting a spanner in the works. Now that productivity is dead across the UK (below the US, Germany and France) due to a lack of investment in capital and skills, the country needs to be inspired by new ideas. Thankfully, two of them came along last week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first was the latest in a series of notes on the UK economy by the excellent &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.longvieweconomics.com/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!i5Mdr0wxE6xjkP0eqq4wJkZVwMa1gNCaoRv5nxABPNcsfebGmi_rs4P8esFEO4OmaQLGMqAXwfjfzbfNROjOnFZ6$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;LongView Economics.&lt;/a&gt; In brief, their diagnosis is that Britain faces several, long-growing problems – to many ‘Humphreys’ or rather too much regulation and bureaucracy (government spending is at seventy year highs), the death of risk capital and the need to re-generate investment flows across the British economy and the financialization of the economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two of the solutions flagged by LongView are the needs to reform the NHS and to cut bureaucracy across government. This might happen sooner than many think because the second inspirational idea to come out of the UK was the launch a week ago of the &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-opportunities-action-plan/ai-opportunities-action-plan__;!!O22_8FOSssc!i5Mdr0wxE6xjkP0eqq4wJkZVwMa1gNCaoRv5nxABPNcsfebGmi_rs4P8esFEO4OmaQLGMqAXwfjfzbfNRASdxsRp$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;UK AI Opportunities Action Plan&lt;/a&gt;, which in effect was authored by the venture capitalist Matt Clifford with a little help from the likes of Sir Demis Hassabis. It is applied and well thought through enough that it could not have been written by civil servants. In a week where the USD 500bn Softbank/OpenAI/Oracle AI investment has grabbed the headlines, the UK AI Plan deserves much closer attention and, in my view, is the best framework for an AI value chain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whilst there are fifty recommendations in the report, all of which have been endorsed by the government, the main ones involve ‘feeding’ AI models by making high quality data more available (changing copyright laws), accelerate investment in data centres and also set up an AI Energy Council to plan the energy sources to power the data centres. There are also plans for a national data library and for the use of AI in the NHS.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One striking element, announced this Tuesday, is the use of AI assistants to speed up public services, with data-sharing deals across siloed departments; and a new set of AI tools — dubbed “Humphrey”. The aim is to speed up and make the work of civil servants more efficient – with the stated aim of saving GBP 55bn (this is very ambitious and if achieved would cut significantly into the budget deficit).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The plan, at least, is ambitious. Whether or not the Labour government can implement this plan is very much an open question but at least they have in their hands a blueprint for investment and perhaps the beginning of something better for the British economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Humphrey

&lt;p&gt;Unio Wealth Management has launched its monthly thought leadership series for 2025, the themes of which underpin financial advice to our clients.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read more: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Unio-Themes-2025-1.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Unio Wealth Management Monthly Thought Leadership Series&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2025 will see the dawning of a new world where new rules and ways of doing things are crafted, but also one where impatience is a symptom of an unclear future for many countries, companies and households.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, Unio is launching a monthly thought leadership series - New World, New Rules, Your Wealth - that will examine and debate how Ireland – from the point of view of its economy, politics and diplomacy – will be affected by this ‘new world under new rules’ theme.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Specifically, we will interrogate a number of strategic themes, that will command investors’ attention this year:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ireland and the EU&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The UK Splutters&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ireland’s Relationship With the US&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ireland&#39;s Security Posture&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Deep Tech and Strategic Autonomy&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Immigration&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Small States&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A constant thread through these themes is the relevance to financial markets, a sense of what international investors are doing and the implications for our clients’ portfolios: corporate; SME; and, professionals and executives in Ireland.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch below as Mike O&#39;Sullivan goes into more detail on each of the themes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch the short clip below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/MVFDZyvmCFo?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

New World, New Rules, Your Wealth.

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Navigating Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Pensions: Making Informed Decisions&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;This article compares Defined Benefit (DB) and Defined Contribution (DC) pensions. DB pensions offer guaranteed income, while DC pensions involve investment risk for the employee. Employers prefer DC schemes due to predictable costs. Transfer values allow employees to switch from DB to DC pensions, with potential benefits like inheritance options. The decision to transfer involves assessing financial factors, risk, and personal circumstances with the help of a financial adviser. 4 minutes read.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;DB pensions, where your former employer pays you a guaranteed income, have been described as the ultimate gold-plated pension.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Modern Pension Plans &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Most employers now offer a DC pension, where they provide employees with a set amount of money to invest in a pension plan. The employee takes on the investment risk and the uncertainty of whether the pension pot they have at retirement will be enough to support them in retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Employer Preferences&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Employers prefer DC schemes, because they know exactly what they need to pay into them each year for their employees, and after that, their obligation is satisfied. In contrast, DB schemes can be a large liability on the company balance sheet, because ultimately, they don’t know how long they will be paying out that guaranteed income – will all of the retired employees end up being centurions, with the company liable to pay them a guaranteed income for thirty or forty years?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Transfer Values&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Facing this uncertain cost, many companies offer pension scheme members transfer values. What this means is that they hand the member a DC pension in exchange for the member giving up their DB pension, that guaranteed income for life. The member takes on the investment risk and manages the pension to give them enough income to live on in retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Benefits of Transfer Values &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, there can be upsides to taking a transfer value too for example, what happens if the member passes away? With a DB pension, the pension payable each year is paid to the spouse, but is usually reduced by a third, or in some cases even by half. Then, upon the death of the surviving spouse, it ceases to pay completely. In some cases, there is no spouse’s pension at all, no value can be passed on to their children or other family members. In contrast, with a DC pension, the full value of the pension pot can pass to the spouse and estate just like any other asset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Factors Influencing Transfer Values &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The transfer value on offer may fluctuate over time, and this is driven by multiple factors. The most important are bond yields and how long the member has left until retirement. Typically, as bond yields increase, we see transfer values reduce, and vice versa. Also, as the member grows closer to retirement age, typically transfer values increase. Other things that can influence the transfer value on offer include the funding status of the scheme, and whether any enhancement is being offered by the sponsoring firm to incentivise the member to take the transfer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Making the Decision&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are many financial factors to be considered when weighing up a transfer value, but ultimately, it is a personal decision – a huge personal decision. If you choose to take the transfer value, there is no going back into the DB scheme. It can be a daunting decision to make. The process starts with a transfer value offer letter being received by the member, with no further context or analysis beyond the simple numbers of what their defined benefit entitlement is, and what the transfer value on offer is.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Our Approach&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We take a two-pronged approach when a client comes to us with a transfer value offer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;First, we assess whether the transfer value could provide them with the same level of income as the DB pension would, also considering what level of investment risk would have to be taken to achieve this.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Then we assess how the client’s risk profile stacks up against this required risk level.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Comprehensive Analysis&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Following this assessment, we look at the big picture. We run a cashflow analysis incorporating all the client’s assets, income, expenses, and liabilities, with one scenario showing their financial position if they remain in the DB scheme, and a second showing what might change &lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;if&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt; they take the transfer value.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We then move on to look at the personal side of things. What level of income does the client need, and how do they value security of income? Do they want to leave an inheritance to their family some day? How is their health, is there an increased risk of passing away early in retirement? Then we must assess how the client would deal with investment risk.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Considerations and Conclusions &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These factors represent just a fraction of the many considerations that must be taken into account when deciding whether to accept or decline a transfer value. By speaking to your financial adviser, you can gain valuable insights into the essential context surrounding transfer values, ensuring that your decision is well-informed and made with confidence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the author&lt;/strong&gt;: &lt;em&gt;Yvonne Clinton is a Financial Planner with Unio Wealth Management and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Navigating Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Pensions

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning January 20th, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our investment brief in full 📽️:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/iCWCh6XuNTY?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Earnings season kicked off with a bang last week with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs exceeding earnings and profit forecasts thanks to strong trading revenue.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Looking ahead to this week, several well know companies will report earnings: Netflix on the 21st; Johnson &amp;amp; Johnson&amp;nbsp;on the 22nd; and, American Express on the 24th. Over the past year American Express’s stock has risen c.69% as financial services companies continue to thrive.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Today is a big day in the US as the transfer of power between President Biden and Trump will take place at approximately 12:00 EST inside the Capitol Building.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ On the 21st, UK unemployment data for November will be released. Recent UK macroeconomic data has been generally muted. Bank of England officials may need to respond more quickly if the jobs report indicates weakness.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 20th January.

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I may well lose half of my readers with the next sentence but, whilst many of you were struggling in sub-zero temperatures I spent much of last week in the Caribbean. As the plane passed south over azure sea and white beaches, I thought to myself that we were not far from Goldeneye, the Jamaican residence of ‘James Bond’ author Ian Fleming. Indeed, the character of James Bond has some local Caribbean flavour, Fleming was a keen ornithologist and named his main character after an expert ornithologist and author of ‘Birds of the West Indies’ called James Bond, who subsequently visited Fleming at Goldeneye in 1964 (Goldeneye was the name of a 1941 intelligence operation in Spain that Fleming as involved in).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Early in his career, Fleming struggled to match his more illustrious father and brother (the excellent ‘Geographies, Genders and Geopolitics of James Bond’ by Lisa Funnell and Klaus Dodd underlines how Fleming’s conception of Bond was influenced by both his brother and father), and his military career really only took off when he took up a role in Intelligence (he worked at Room 37 at the Admiralty).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;He was given charge of a small but telling operation whose aim was to conceive high impact missions that had little chance of success, but that would confuse the enemy. His playbook of operations was called the Trout Memo – after the fly-fishing technique designed to entrap trout. The conception of these high risk missions formed the basis for the James Bond novels, which from 1953 onwards were very popular, and by 1965 the series had reached thirteen books.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In 1965 the writer Kingsley Amis, well known as a serious critic, poet and author, published the book ‘The James Bond Dossier’, an analysis of Ian Fleming’s Bond novels. The book which contains studied lists of Bond’s victims, lovers (at my count Bond prefers English, American, French and then Swedish ‘friends’) and adversaries (few governments, mostly individuals and warped older male sociopaths at that), helped Amis enter the world of popular culture – he clearly had a sense of the allure and longevity of the Bond brand.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some of the films based on Fleming’s work have been spot on in identifying threats and trends. On the whole and perhaps reflecting Fleming’s own operations, many of them involve the disruption of supply chains and the resulting profiteering – for instance Goldeneye was based on the deployment of an electromagnetic device to rob the Bank of England (don’t forget that Goldfinger plotted to use a dirty bomb to steal gold from Fort Knox), Tomorrow Never Dies Involved the manipulation of the media, in Die Another Day a satellite is used to manipulate the weather over North Korea and so on.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the Bond film franchise is struggling to settle on a new actor to take over from Daniel Craig, my sense is that we live in a world that is increasingly Bond like in its geopolitics. Whilst the period of globalizations was relatively calm, we are now in the midst of a number of trends that are Bondesque – a Cold War between the US and China, a grey war between Russia and Europe, NATO re-armament (which featured in Thunderball), the rise of oligarchy and the advent of space as a competitive domain, to mention a few.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Every time I leave Europe, the intensity of the US-China struggle for supremacy strikes me, though I feel that most Europeans are not alive to this. Neither are they alive to the shadow war that Russia (with help from China) is prosecuting on Europe. The Polish government (holder of the EU rotating presidency) unveiled a sabotage campaign by Russia to target freight aircraft across Europe. This comes after a series of assassinations, sabotage attacks and hacking campaigns that Russia has prosecuted in Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Back in the Caribbean, a striking event last week was the disintegration of Elon Musk’s Starship, which reminds us of the sharp rise of oligarchs as political operators (as highlighted by President Biden), and of how space is opening up as a new, competitive domain (Bond film Moonraker gave us a taste of this).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In particular, the entry of Musk into the operation of military innovation and procurement is a sign of a wave of aerospace and defence innovation, that is being pioneered by firms like Shield AI, Helsing AI and Anduril. As a sample of the thinking behind this innovations, one idea that was put to me recently is to replace fighter jets with hypersonic rockets that carry and deploy drones to the battlefield. Of course, the trouble with most of these technologies is that they are unmanned, leaving little room for Bond like characters to distinguish themselves.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A final element worth mentioning is geopolitical power. Britain is a much less consequential player geopolitically than it was in the 1950’s, but it still retains a seat on the UN Security Council for instance. The trouble is that many of the institutional reference points of the Fleming era are losing their lustre, and risk being replaced by an entirely new set of institutions, and we could speculate that in the future we will see the development of a World Cyber Police, an AI led World AI Safety Institute and an authority to police genetic editing and DNA hacking, all of which might feature in future Bond plots.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;James Bond may be on hold as a cinematic experience, but I wonder if the next Bond movie should be called ‘No Time for Tariffs’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Goldeneye

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning January 13th, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our full investment brief 📽️:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/Rl4VjRCiCeQ?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ It’s the start of Q4 reporting this week and JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Blackrock lead the way reporting their Q4 earnings on the 15th. The S&amp;amp;P 500 financials sector rose over 26% in 2024 as banks continue to benefit from higher interest rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ UK inflation and GDP data will be released on the 15th and 16th respectively. Current UK inflation stands at 2.6% and is expected to rise to 2.7% due to higher energy prices and increased Christmas spending.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ US inflation data for December will be released on the 15th and the headline rate is expected to rise 0.1% to 2.8%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Increased demand from China, lower US inventories and continued supply cuts from OPEC+ along with increased winter fuel demand has pushed oil prices to their highest level in over 3 months. YTD WTI crude is up 6.7% at $77.27 p/b.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 13th January

&lt;p&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio Wealth Management in conversation with John Daly, The Irish Examiner. Mike talks about how despite the many challenges Ireland faces, most notably inflation, the country is still very competitive compared to many other European countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“If I had to pick one way in which Ireland is different to other countries, I would say that while it is an old country, it has a young society and younger economy, in terms of structural development,” he says, referencing Joe Lee’s book on Irish history, which speaks of a long history of economic underachievement.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“I illustrate this to people with a chart of Irish GDP compared to that of Britain, starting in 1800 up to today. What it shows is a very long period of economic underdevelopment, right up to 1990, when the Berlin wall fell, globalisation kicked off and Ireland rode its coattails.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;Since then, Ireland has become a wealthy country, but the fact that it has happened quickly, and in a boom-and-bust style, means that the investment infrastructure and culture of infrastructure that you might find in older economies — from Sweden to France — is not yet there.”&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While personal wealth has grown significantly, with the number of people with net assets of over €1m having doubled in the last decade, Ireland is under-served in terms of wealth management advice.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;“As a trusted wealth adviser, Unio’s goal is to move our clients from being passive wealth holders to active wealth builders.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;In this context, Ireland has a lot of upsides because we are at the beginning of a generational transfer in wealth, one that hopefully becomes more meaningful in the ways it can help Irish firms to grow. The challenge is to get policymakers to take a very fresh look at the way investment works in Ireland,” he adds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Challenges facing Ireland&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Looking at the more significant challenges facing Ireland in the future, his instinct is to look beyond 2025. “I think the biggest economic issue will be inflation — and to focus on reshaping our economic model so that it enables Ireland to advance in terms of economic sophistication and as a society. We need a longer-term investment model, more Irish growth companies and a complete overhaul of infrastructure.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The issue Ireland faces is not a lack of money, but a lack of know-how in planning and executing infrastructure projects — which is something other peer countries like Denmark and Sweden have.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland has done very well from globalisation, but he points out this is changing fast: “As the ‘tide goes out’, Ireland is being exposed in terms of its lack of defence and security capabilities and a total absence of geopolitical and security alertness in our political class.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;It worries me that, in the same way, Ireland was unprepared for the 2008 economic collapse, we are similarly unprepared for a rougher, chaotic world order.”&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The investment landscape is profoundly influenced by both global and local politics, he says, where diplomatic relations, regional conflicts and political stability all shape investor sentiment and market dynamics.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“At Unio, understanding this interplay is key to navigating financial markets and helping clients maximise their financial lives and futures.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Given how 2024 delivered political and economic turbulence to the eurozone, with its largest economies, Germany and France, facing significant challenges, Mike O’Sullivan takes an optimistic view.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“It seems to me that, in a volatile way, the eurozone has become stronger institutionally through every crisis that has befallen it — Brexit and covid being the latest examples.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;However, across the EU, France and Germany are ‘unwell’ economically, but there is an important power shift to the east, notably the Baltic states and Poland, and Spain is growing strongly.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;I would say that the one element of the European debate that is not felt in Ireland is the need to prepare industry, the technology sector and militaries for conflict with Russia. Denmark, for example, has just added €5bn to its military budget.”&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Global uncertainty&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With incoming US president Donald Trump taking office on January 20, and general anticipation of more global uncertainty, Ireland’s position is better than that of many of our EU neighbours.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In some respects, it is too late to worry — we have known for some time that the economy is over-reliant on foreign direct investment, but policy has not reacted to this. Having said that, those multinationals are deeply embedded in our economy, so a sudden exit is unlikely.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;In addition, in other ways, Ireland is still a very competitive economy compared to many EU neighbours,” he says.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“I think the recent election was a good example of how grounded and local Irish politics is, and that is a good thing. There are other elements of Irish democracy — like the citizens&#39; assembly — that are also admirable. Yet, lower turnout is a worry, as is the impact of social media on public life and the quality of political debate across the world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;The other element that needs to be balanced is that our political system rewards politicians for focusing too much on local issues, often to the detriment of the ‘bigger picture’.&quot;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While maintaining continued contact with his native Cork, Mike readily admits that living in the ‘City of Light’ does have its moments.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“It’s a wonderful place to live. We are right in the city centre so have witnessed many of the events that define Paris — including the fire at Notre Dame and the Olympics. The city is thriving and very liveable.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we help high earners achieve their full financial potential. Using our proprietary wealth planning framework we work with our clients to plan their future and importantly, how to fund it. If you would like to speak to a Unio Wealth Management adviser, visit&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Let&#39;s Talk | Unio Wealth Management&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-41550316.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This is an excerpt from an article that appeared in The Irish Examiner, January 10th, 2025&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Ireland’s position is better than that of many of our EU neighbours

&lt;p&gt;We spent a memorable New Year’s Eve on Dursey Island, one of the more remote parts of Europe, whose only point of access to the Irish mainland is by ‘Ireland’s only cable car’, where the principal safety device is a bottle of holy water. In 1602, Dursey was the scene of the massacre of some of the O’Sullivan clan. Some six hundred years before that, it was a staging post for the Vikings.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I am tempted to think that had the Vikings stayed the O’Sullivans could have escaped the slaughter of the Siege of Dunboy, but then again, always optimistic, I contend myself that Dursey – unlike the other Viking island (Greenland) will not attract the attention of the US Navy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My intention this year is to be as least distracted as possible by the geopolitical strategizing of President Trump, but in the context of a far more ideological cabinet, his thoughts have consequences – not least for how they will encourage the enemies of America and the ‘west’ to behave.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For investors, political and geopolitical risks will likely play a much greater role in developed market asset returns than in any time over the past forty years, and the market reaction to Donald Trump’s victory offers them a wonderful opportunity to take a contrarian view and ‘spend American exceptionalism’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To explain what I mean by that, our starting point in 2025 is that an array of US assets trade at very high levels. Indeed, to recap a phrase I used in December markets are starting 2025 from the ‘wrong place’ in the sense that an enormous amount of capital is tied up in assets (the top ‘7’ technology firms, the dollar, corporate bonds) that trade at all time lofty valuations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For instance, Bank of America estimates that the dollar is the most expensive that it has been since the early nineties, and valuations for US stocks are close to the highest levels they have reached since the late 1990’s. The top fifteen companies in the US are now worth the same as Chinese and European equity markets together.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Added to that, quite a few assets have exploded in value because of their proximity to Donald Trump – notably the crypto eco-system and Tesla (which has added USD 850bn in market value around the time of the election, an amount equal to the value of its ten nearest competitors).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is not yet a bubble in the broad US market – many segments such as value stocks (high dividend companies) and small companies have not performed, but there is sufficient capital held in very expensive dollar denominated assets that it demands the attention and action of investors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Market analysts do not appear worried – in the time-honoured fashion the major investment houses have released their year ahead forecasts, which suspiciously all cluster around the 10% market, and equally suspiciously no investment house is forecasting a negative year for US stocks. This collective conclusion must have required great analytical power because an independent re-running of these same models points to flat or negative returns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, investors should take advantage of expensive dollar assets and diversify abroad.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;They may be convinced to do so by two developments. The first is the collapse in long term US bonds since the Federal Reserve launched into a series of rate cuts from September onwards. In effect the bond market is signalling that it sees a resurgence of inflation ahead, and it is also likely flagging that the credit worthiness of the US may be deteriorating (in the sense that there is little prospect of the budget deficit and government debt being pared back).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Related to this, the second Trump administration begins in a much worse fiscal place as the first Trump government did in 2016. In the period 1960 to 2016 (with the exception of the Vietnam War) the US budget deficit has always followed the tempo of the business cycle (as proxied by unemployment).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That is to say that the budget deficit shrunk when the economy was strong (low unemployment) and it grew when the government spent more to cushion the effects of recession (high unemployment).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Today, we have the opposite – unemployment is low and the budget deficit is very high. This implies three risks – that too much spending in a ‘hot’ economy creates inflation, that there won&#39;t be any money left to ‘rescue’ an eventual recession, and that the rising deficit implies rising debt, which bond markets don’t like.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;None of these risks, and rising bond yields, appear to worry the US equity and corporate bond market, but they should. A contrarian view might look to sell expensive dollar denominated assets and allocate overseas.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So my message to start the year is – don’t invade Denmark, buy its equity market.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Contrarians and Controversialists

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View, our weekly investments brief covering global markets and macro news.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our full investment brief📽️ below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/75LJY9eyaSQ?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first full trading week of the new year will be keenly watched given the tumultuous Christmas period for markets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Turkey&#39;s central bank announced it’s first rate cut since Feb 2023, reducing it’s key rate from 50% to 47.5%&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ The release of the FOMC Minutes on the 8th could offer more detail on the Federal Reserve’s outlook for 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ EU inflation rate data will be released on the 7th along with an update on European unemployment rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ In the US jobs data will be front and centre as there will be updates on JOLTs Job Openings (7th), Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate (both the 10th).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 6th January

&lt;p&gt;The December Global Macro Council Outlook highlights four broad themes for 2025: portfolio agility, fiscal policy after elections, trade wars influencing a multipolar world, and risks such as a potential recession in China. Europe is shifting towards strategic autonomy, presenting new private investment opportunities in sectors like space, quantum, and defence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-December-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more in this month&#39;s Outlook.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Four Pillars for 2025

&lt;p&gt;I filed my article early this week for two reasons. On Friday morning, we headed to Cork for holidays and I attach a link with a short list of&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeosullivan/2024/12/17/what-books-to-read-for-christmas/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;suggested Christmas reading&lt;/a&gt;, and hope you have a chance to get to the bookshop (always a more rewarding experience than buying online).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Granted that it is year end, I am often caught up in the swirl of ‘2025’ prognostications on the economy and politics, and while not a great fan of short-term forecasting, I thought I would lay out a few themes that will condition markets and economies into 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;I wouldn’t start from here.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial markets – which are dominated by US equities (over 65% of world market cap), are starting 2025 from a vertiginous place.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Retail investor surveys have never been so optimistic, stock market concentration is at levels last seen in 1929 (the top ten stocks account for 40% of the market) and valuations are stratospheric (a simple measure, the price to earnings ratio, has only been higher in 2020 and 2001). In that respect, many investors might pose the question ‘when is the crash?’. My sense is that absent a damaging trade and supply chain war between the US and China in Q1, we will likely see a very meaningful rotation from US equities to cheaper markets in parts of Asia, but more so Europe (the election of Friedrich Merz as German Chancellor in late February might be the catalyst for this).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;The Plaza Problem&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A further reason for this is the strength of the dollar, which makes foreign assets cheaper for US investors. Following the election of Donald Trump, a range of key currencies have weakened noticeably – the yen, Brazil’s real, the Indian rupee, renminbi and the euro. Whilst the new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will see the benefits of a strong dollar, the weakness of ‘foreign’ currencies is anathema to the worldview of Donal Trump, who dreams of another Plaza Accord (a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’) that might reset the competitiveness of the dollar.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The problem with this view, as we head into 2025, is that the weakness of Asian currencies and the euro, relative to the dollar, is driven largely by diverging economic performance. In that context, a Trump administration that runs the economy ‘hot’ risks postponing a grand currency accord. It also risks a resurgence in inflation (and bond yields), which I suspect will be a story for next summer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;China – Japan or Greece?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The one factor that could temper inflation is China, a very large political economy that we know increasingly less about. My bet is that commentators will spend much of 2025 debating whether China is ‘Japan’ or ‘Greece’, in the sense of how the deleveraging of its economy materialises. China will become the risk factor for 2025 – economically, geopolitically and commercially in the way it will respond to the onset of tariffs from Washington.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite a recent, aggressive financial stimulus, the Chinese economy is gripped by deflation – in house prices, activity and a fall in entrepreneurial activity. Underlying this is a generalized demand problem.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This year’s plenum on economic policy has not done much to repair the structural creaking of the economy and the worry is that internal ‘reform’ (i.e. a political crackdown) further saps the willingness of entrepreneurs to invest, and equally that Xi is shaping China in the form of a more closed state, that curbs the will of those inside, adopts a singularly selfish approach to those outside, and relies on several great strides in technological industrialisation for the prolongation of the ‘China Dream’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The contradiction here, and specifically between the three strands to emerge from the plenum, is that in its policy making and economy China needs innovation but is creating a socio-political system that smothers it.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this respect, the third plenum and the recent liquidity boost missed a trick in not outlining a Keynesian style stimulus for the economy (or even longer-run structural one). The property market is slowing, entrepreneurs are very cautious, and the risks associated with local government debt are rising.&amp;nbsp;While China has so far managed to duck a major recession, the government may have become too complacent about the deleveraging process, and the possibility that this accelerates downwards, dramatically so as was the case for Greece, or tortuously as was the case for Japan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Bond markets – suffering the hangover from elections&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As China slows, the key variable to watch is the Chinese long bond yield, which has been compressing lower in recent months as investors take a dim view of the economy. Elsewhere, there should be plenty of action across bond markets, driven by the fiscal aftershock of elections across the world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We still have a general election in Japan and the prospect of an election in Germany next February (23rd). In the cases of the US, UK and France, elections have seen bond yields rise in the context of near record indebtedness and very large deficits.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that respect, the fiscal hangover begins. Governments across regions will find themselves reined in by bond markets and under pressure to curb spending and in some cases to raise taxes. This pressure alone may eventually tilt economic policy more towards supply side changes, and also change the kinds of issues that politicians focus on such as immigration and identity politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Fiscal rectitude may only come to reign after a few bond market tantrums. There are two countries in particular worth watching – France and the US. First, the French budget process has been very drawn out, and with France having to cut its deficit in half over the next three years, it is unlikely that France’s political class, not to mention its public, are ready for deeper austerity. In that way, higher French bond yields will be a fixture in markets and might periodically push much higher.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The other market to watch is the US bond market, which in 2025 may become the limiting factor for equity and other riskier assets. Since the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, bond yields have risen and remain stubbornly high. With growth in the US economy strong, and other economies steadying, the risk factor is that inflation rises (though lower oil prices and deflation from China can offset this), driving bond yields higher, or that the desire of the Trump administration to run the economy ‘hot’ provokes a rise in yields. In this sense, the bond market may become Trump’s nemesis. The market reaction to this week’s Fed meeting is a sign of things to come.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This post is a little longer than normal and am now going to ‘down pens’ till you hear from me again on January 12th, when I will focus on some of the risks and potential surprises for 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a lovely Christmas and a very prosperous new year,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

2025 - The Hangover

&lt;p&gt;The New Year is an ideal time to establish healthy money habits and to put yourself on a sound financial path.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning&lt;/strong&gt; sets out some simple financial planning tips to get your finances into shape so you can spend more time enjoying the things you love and less time worrying about your money.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Think about your life &amp;amp; financial goals&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Write down your short-term, medium term and long-term life goals along with a timeline for achieving them. Do these goals require financial funding? We often think about when we hope to retire and what that might look like however, along the way there are likely to be other life events and goals you would like to work towards.&amp;nbsp;This could include clearing your mortgage in a particular timeframe or saving for your children’s education.&amp;nbsp;Focusing on your financial goals will help you build a financial plan and with a plan you have a better chance of success!&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Create a budget &amp;amp; track your spending&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 50-30-20 rule is a good place to start: a budgeting approach that allocates&amp;nbsp;50% of your income to needs, 30% to wants, and 20% to savings. You can build your wealth while prioritising spending on things that matter to you. With a better understanding of where your money is going often comes the availability of extra disposable income, allowing you to invest the money or use it in other ways to improve your financial wellbeing.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;3.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Effectively use any surplus cash&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once you have a handle on your personal finances, consider how you can make your money work for you and invest to achieve your goals. If you already have a pension in place, are you making the most of it? A work-based pension is effectively free money from your employer and your pension fund continues to provide a tax efficient way to save for your future.&amp;nbsp;Think about using any surplus cash to increase your AVCs. The maximum contribution &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/are-you-maximising-your-pension-contributions&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;on which you can receive income tax relief is determined by your age.&lt;/a&gt; Every extra €100 that you save to your pension is costing you as little as €60* once tax relief is considered. What about your savings? The bulk of savings in Ireland lies in low-yielding easy-to-access bank accounts. It may be time to consider building an investment portfolio that can grow that pot.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;4.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Empower yourself&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Understanding your finances is empowering and drives sound choices when it comes to making big financial decisions such as moving house or investing in a holiday home. We aren’t taught about personal finances in school. Most of us learn about money when we start dealing with bills and mortgages. A good place to start is to read the business pages at the weekend or check out a good finance podcast. Key to this however is a good relationship with your financial adviser, someone in your corner who you can ask questions and who understands your needs and goals. They will be able to explain why they’re making certain decisions with your money and how this affects you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;5.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Seek advice&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My final tip is to seek expert “advice”. Generally, people who work with a quality financial planning professional enjoy more financial confidence and experience less financial stress. An adviser works with you to help determine exactly what your financial goals are, talks you through your options and provides a personalised financial plan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The right adviser will help coordinate all aspects of your financial life so you can focus on what’s most important to you and your family.&amp;nbsp;It’s an ongoing relationship built on trust and, if done correctly, your adviser will become an integral part of your life, your counsel for financial decisions. You can take comfort knowing that they will have the time, attention, and expertise to address every aspect of your finances while you focus on living.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This plan is your financial blueprint for life, it’s a living thing and we see its creation and ongoing assessment as a significant responsibility. Expert guidance will help steer you in the right direction. Life can throw curve balls and revisiting and updating your plan is paramount to its success.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;*This figure is based on marginal tax relief of 40%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Wealth Management&lt;/strong&gt;, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/1ecefqpb45/vqdcidiuenj1wctetzt8n4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=6&amp;amp;p=64910325&amp;amp;t=33457561__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nfZp5_J4dNquUJWjgK06GKZUAVcTx3BtsZ-MUVNXTr8w1_uqlPWliA8FxUcAxkdQ6PRrdSgbD-BUj0Mcdw$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Get Your Finances in Shape for 2025 and Beyond.

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A few weeks ago, it would have been inconceivable to most foreign policy experts that Israeli aircraft could bomb Syria at will with their tanks apparently in shooting distance of Damascus, all the while a new Islamist regime installed itself there. This latest turn in the topsy turvy geopolitical world gives a glimpse of some of the regime shifts to come and the fragility of erstwhile brutal, long lasting dictatorships.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I absorbed the implications of the event in Abu Dhabi, which in terms of its success and trajectory, underlines the view of some that there are ‘two middle easts’.&amp;nbsp;At the same time, Abu Dhabi has risen to a point of influence that it will be the lodestar in building the economic structure of the region once a viable peace plan for Israel/Palestine has been found.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The surprise departure of Bashir al-Assad will likely accelerate the reordering of the region and give food for thought to other ‘strongmen’. It may eventually be that a gang of them ends up living out of the Ritz Carlton in Moscow.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Indeed, &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/688225__;!!O22_8FOSssc!ms1jRbEU0XGArti1murXZun3TGrhUF5t3F-s8dKZGzUaJx71NxVWh1ZA98XMpVNjyf_60szb_fjLLilbq0uiCUF8$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;a couple of academics&lt;/a&gt; have tracked the flight of deposed dictators and state that&amp;nbsp;‘&lt;em&gt;we find that dictators are more likely to go into exile in states that are close neighbors, have hosted other dictators in the past, are militarily powerful, and possess colonial links, formal alliances, and economic ties. By contrast, fleeing dictators tend to avoid democratic states and countries experiencing civil conflict’&lt;/em&gt;. More specifically, in Europe the top three destinations for dictators are Russia, the UK and France!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Despite Assad’s fall, Syria itself is not out of the woods – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham may be media sensitive, but they are also deadly, conservative Islamists. They have manifestly been given a firm helping hand by Turkey, which is re-establishing itself as a regional power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Turkish foreign policy is an enigma, wrapped in a mystery. In the past I have written how, in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, many countries in north Africa wanted to follow the ‘Turkish model’ of development. Since then, Recep Erdogan has enfeebled the country’s institutions and its economic backbone and has turned a foreign policy that used to be based on ‘no trouble with neigbours’ to one of ‘trouble with neighbours’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;However, Erodgan is a key player now – especially in terms of how he negotiates Russia’s military withdrawal. There remain many open questions, notably how the fall of Syria further weakens Iran and what implications this has for Iraq. Larger regional countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia will welcome the toppling of Assad and the further undermining of Iran, but now have to face up to the prospect of a regional peace deal where the strength of their support for Palestine will be tested.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If in 2025 a peace deal is struck that keeps in place the two-state formula, then the prospect of a regional economic recovery, led by the UAE (or Abu Dubai as some call it), may not be far off.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Visits to ministries, financial institutions (including Abu Dhabi Finance Week) and infrastructure players, with Prof. Afshin Molavi and several other economists and writers, gave a sense of the ambition of the region.&amp;nbsp;In particular compared to previous visits to the region, two things stood out as ‘new developments’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is a growing sense of independence on the part of the UAE to go its own way in terms of how it makes policy (as opposed to being a policy taker from the US and the EU). This is evident in finance, infrastructure, labour markets and trade. On trade specifically, the UAE has to be geopolitically ambidextrous in how it builds relationships with the US and China, though when it comes to technology, the sense is that it is very much plugged into America.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second element worth commenting on is the idea of ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Working-with-Gulf-states-India-can-build-a-new-center-of-power__;!!O22_8FOSssc!ms1jRbEU0XGArti1murXZun3TGrhUF5t3F-s8dKZGzUaJx71NxVWh1ZA98XMpVNjyf_60szb_fjLLilbq7WGtinb$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Fourth Pole’&lt;/a&gt;. I have written on this in the last year, and the idea is that in a multipolar world made up of three ‘poles’ (US, EU and China) there is room for a fourth pole made up of India, the Gulf States and other players across the ‘region’ (which we could define as those countries&amp;nbsp;a&amp;nbsp;five hours&amp;nbsp;flight&amp;nbsp;away from the&amp;nbsp;UAE,&amp;nbsp;which includes some 2.4 billion people across Asia, Africa, Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The notion of the ‘Fourth Pole’ is gathering pace around the very close relationship between the UAE and India (the very popular Hindu Temple in Abu Dhabi is just one sign), and the web of trade, finance and infrastructure deals they are engaging in across the region. This relationship may not ultimately become as deep as that of the EU countries, but it is beginning to look like a modern version of the ‘Coal and Steel’ community. The risk however, is that they overbuild capacity in the face of a forthcoming economic shock or recession.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a final word, the best indication that I had that the UAE is feeling both confident and more independent is that some&amp;nbsp;well-connected government advisors&amp;nbsp;have come up with an acronym for the west – W.E.N.A (Western Europe and North America)!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

W.E.N.A

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio View for the week beginning December 9th, our weekly investments brief covering global markets and macro news.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Several major events impacted financial markets last week.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The French government collapse tested bond markets, and attempts to enforce martial law in South Korea were rejected.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The week concluded with the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad&#39;s government.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-This week, watch for US inflation data on the 11th (current rate at 2.6%) and the ECB’s interest rate decision on the 12th (expected cut of at least 25bps from 3.4%).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-In stock news, Oracle Corp’s Q2 earnings release is today (YTD stock rise of 84.2%). Look out for Microsoft’s AGM tomorrow and Adobe’s Q4 earnings on the 11th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our full brief below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/Kg_tNjtMYdM?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: https://unio.ie/lets-talk.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 9th December 2024

&lt;p&gt;Monday morning started with an early sprint from Baker St to Marylebone train station in London, passing close to 221b Baker St, the fabled home of Sherlock Holmes. However, Holmes was not on my mind, but rather his nemesis, Professor James Moriarty.&amp;nbsp;I was on my way to a seminar on the future of crime (especially as it concerned robots and social robots) organized by the excellent team at UCL’s Dawes Centre for Future Crime.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The rumour is that Conan Doyle based the character of Moriarty on George Boole, Professor of Maths at University College Cork from 1849 until 1864 (disappointingly his former home on Grenville Place is in a state of dereliction). Boole, one of the great mathematicians, created Boolean algebra which laid the foundations for computer language and is this the structure around which scientists use machines to mimic and ‘improve’ on human behaviour. To that end, Moriarty and the idea of the ‘future of crime’ should be of all the more interest to us in an AI driven world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whilst many serious crimes are in abeyance – murder rates in small open democracies (Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Ireland for instance) are very low, and those in the large EU economies – France, Germany, the UK and Italy trend below 1 per 100,000 (the USA is seven times higher), new forms of crime are on the rise, many of them driven by technology. Mobile phones and social media have become an entirely new vector for crime in terms of the theft of passwords, online bank details, identity theft and the harassment and abuse of people online. Similarly, crypto currencies are the conduit for much criminal activity, and it is believed that confiscations have made the FBI the biggest holder of bitcoin. In addition, the metaverse has opened up an entirely new legal space, where injuries and attacks carried out in an apparently unreal world can have consequences in the real world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, the issue at stake at the Dawe’s Centre seminar was whether socially intelligent robots can create new forms of crime, that are not yet covered by legal frameworks and for which countermeasures have not been conceived.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is a terrifying prospect – robots could not only be primed to deliver drugs or explosives but imagine the consequences of robot bodyguards and guard-dogs who take it upon themselves to attack specific targets. In many cases, the prosecution of an assault by a robot would likely follow the logic of charging the owner of a dog (Britain’s Princess Anne was famously prosecuted when her pitbull ‘Dotty’, bit two children). On a more mundane basis, robots increasingly interact with vulnerable humans – the lonely, the elderly and for instance autistic children, and while these interactions are very helpful, they also open up scope for abuse. In time the growing prevalence of sex robots will cause all sorts of controversies.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, in cases where the robot acts intelligently and autonomously, the law is not clear and frameworks on AI offer only meagre guidance. Robert Harris’ book ‘The Fear Index’ is a good illustration of what might occur when an intelligence ‘bot’ takes over a critical infrastructure, and the use of AI on the battlefield is chilling in its ruthlessness.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Heavy duty robots also permit the exploration, surveillance and protection of faraway places (the deep sea, space and remote parts of the earth) though at the same time they permit mischief by various actors such as attacks on critical marine infrastructure.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It may well be that, as in the case of driverless cars, socially intelligent robots are less dangerous than humans, though the notion itself of criminal robots is cause for concern. For the time being, many of the impetuses to the ‘future of crime’ are human factors. Some of them relate to changes in wealth – such as the rise of powerful oligarchs, and a rich ultra-high net worth class of people who on one hand are targets for crime and on the other hand have the means to dominate others and push their own visions of what society should look like. We may see more of this type of behaviour in coming years.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then, we really get into ‘Moriarty’ territory when states begin to collaborate with individuals and gangs, as is the case with Russia for instance. States have access to intelligent and often lethal robots and can enable organized criminals to use them – it is not impossible that gangs might start to use drones in contract killings. The other, related area that is increasingly relevant here is corporate intelligence and security (Lewis Sage-Passant’s book on this topic is very good) where many corporate security teams have to combat hacking and other attacks by robots, from criminal gangs, and as was sadly demonstrated in New York last week, assassins.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If Moriarty existed today, and perhaps he does, corporates as well as governments might be his preferred targets, and he would very likely equip himself with robotic henchmen (and women) who could subvert the human world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The question is, what would Sherlock do?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Moriarty

&lt;p&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio Wealth Management writes about how the investment landscape is profoundly influenced by global and local politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In today’s interconnected world, the investment landscape is profoundly influenced by both global and local politics. From international trade agreements and diplomatic relations to regional conflicts and political stability, these factors play a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment and market dynamics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, understanding this interplay is crucial for navigating the complexities of financial markets and helping our clients maximise their financial lives and potential futures.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland is interesting in that it continues to be a very open economy – exposed to global forces, but that has so far proven its resilience. We are a democratic outlier. Unlike so many other countries in this ‘year of elections’ there will be fundamentally little change in the governance of the state. At the time of writing, it looks like Fine Gael and Fianna Fail will continue in power, supported either by Labour or a more disparate group of independents. Amidst low turnout, the other trend is the evolution of the political system in terms of a block of four or more parties on the left, and a relatively high number of independents. If Ireland demonstrates an outward form of stability, the world around it is changing in a way not seen since the early 1990′s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Political debate in Europe is dominated by issues that have made no imprint on the election campaign in Ireland – defence and security with a focus on the threat to Europe from Russia, and increasingly the role of China as a bad actor, the need to boost investment in ‘strategic autonomy’ sectors (from AI to quantum to defence ‘deep’ tech). Then, the really significant change is the more mercantilist stance that America will take to the rest of the world, and the risks to the rules based international system that has been cultivated by so many American presidents. In this respect, like many other countries Ireland risks a diplomatic crash. By this I mean that a host of countries have invested diplomatically, or in terms of soft power, in institutions, partnerships and causes. The acceleration of a multipolar world by the second Trump presidency will crash the value of many of these diplomatic investments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An example might be the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and the US, and indeed the close relationship between Ireland and the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;More broadly Ireland has, correctly, invested heavily in the UN and the rules-based order. Some of the pillars of this order, like the World Trade Organisation – effectively built by an Irishman (Peter Sutherland) – are in a state of dereliction. It may well be the case that the UN ceases to be effective in dispute resolution between states, world health policy and great power coordination.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, together with Spain and Norway, Ireland has spent significant geopolitical capital supporting Palestine (all three countries recognised Palestine as a state). Here, it cannot be ruled out that a grand peace deal is made in the Middle East, between Israel, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, whose goal is to create greater investment and commercial flows between these countries and strategically disable Iran, but whose outcome is to render the ‘two-state’ solution unachievable. This new, harsh reality would leave the humanitarian-led foreign policies of many European countries well ‘off-side’, compared to the stance of the Trump administration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Economically, the great challenge will come from the spill-over effects of the Trump administration. His key proposed appointments – notably Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio as Treasury Secretary and Secretary of State, would not be out of place in any of the Republican administrations of the past fifty years, and Bessent in particular has a large stock of credibility on Wall Street and the wider economics community. His personal view of tariffs is that they are a negotiating tactic, best deployed to shape trading and financial relations with other countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While there is great concern over the potential impact of tariffs on Ireland, there may be two reasons to be less pessimistic. First, the Trump administration will cause enormous macroeconomic and diplomatic volatility if it imposes tariffs on allies and competitors at the same time. If his ultimate objective is to disable China as an economic power, he may well need to have allied economies like South Korea, Japan and the EU onside. Second, in many cases, American multinationals are deeply embedded in the Irish economy, which makes a retracement of foreign direct investment difficult. Still, the inevitable tariff negotiation between the EU and the US will entail close solidarity between EU nations, and its implications could well extend to the forthcoming debate on EU defence spending (an EU missile defence shield will cost up to Eur 500bn).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The understated risk to the rest of the world of the Trump economic policy package is that the White House tries to run the economy ‘hot’, and in turn this produces another phase of inflation, and rising interest rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then in terms of domestic fiscal policy, the central concern must be the effectiveness of state spending. While optically, Ireland has a strong fiscal position, it in effect has large unfunded liabilities to meet in terms of bringing its defence infrastructure up to the level of peer states like Denmark and Norway, and in terms of the long-term capital required to offset the impact of climate change on land and infrastructure (flooding in Spain is a reminder). Alongside this is the need to better fund universities and create centres of excellence in research.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It could be hoped that the fiscal debate will shift from the quantum of money that the government needs to deploy on infrastructure and housing, to the method by which these assets are built. If Ireland is richer (per capita) than most of its European peers, it lacks institutionalised know-how in infrastructure – from building apartments like the Austrians, to railways like the French and hospitals like the Swiss. In that respect, the post-election period offers a chance to stop and take stock of what has been done on infrastructure so far and seek the expertise of other EU countries for what needs to be built for the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An important element here is investment, and in time the State will need to think about how to better deploy Irish pension capital in infrastructure, agriculture and homegrown technology firms. Alongside this is the need to build investment infrastructure in the sense of cautiously opening up access to education and portfolio platforms so that households can build long-term investments, a topic that is naturally close to Unio. We flag that there is growing momentum in a ‘savings and investment’ union in Europe, and Ireland should be at the forefront of this. As we head into 2025, Ireland is an oasis of political stability in a chaotic world. It should use this opportunity to build the capabilities it will need in this fast-changing environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we help high earners achieve their full financial potential. Using our proprietary wealth planning framework we work with our clients to plan their future and importantly, how to fund it. If you would like to speak to a Unio Wealth Management adviser, visit &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Let&#39;s Talk | Unio Wealth Management&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishtimes.com/advertising-feature/2024/12/06/ireland-an-outlier-in-a-turbulent-world/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This article appeared in The Irish Times, December 6th, 2024.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Irish Times: Ireland, an outlier in a turbulent world?

&lt;p&gt;3 Mins Read&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stephen McEntee, private client adviser, Unio Wealth Management&#39;s Wealth &amp;amp; Family Office, writes about the risks and strategies associated with investing post-retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Investing post-retirement&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once you have made the transition to retirement and key considerations such as your income requirements and lifestyle needs have been explored in detail; the focus quickly moves to how and where your accumulated pension funds should be invested.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are clearly risks when you are funding a pension, in the ‘fund accumulation’ stage. There are also risks when you move to retirement, or the ‘decumulation’ stage, but they are very different.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sequence of Returns Risk is the risk that the timing of market returns impact retirement savings. For retirees, a market downturn early in retirement can deplete a portfolio faster than expected, even with strong long-term returns. This article explains why this risk matters and offers strategies to protect your retirement income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Risks with Retirement Income &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The risks specific to you as a post-retirement investor should be reflected in the investment portfolio within your post-retirement pension fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, when you are making regular withdrawals from an investment – as you will be doing in retirement – your selected investment portfolio should be constructed with Sequencing Risk in mind. Sequencing Risk is created by the sequence in which investment returns are generated, and the timing of withdrawals from the fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Understanding Sequence of Returns Risk&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To understand the effect of sequence of investment returns, consider the below two scenarios of five-year market returns:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;table border=&quot;0&quot; style=&quot;width: 690pt;&quot; width=&quot;920&quot;&gt;
 &lt;tbody&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Scenario A Returns&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Scenario B Returns&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;Year 1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;25%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;-20%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Year 2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;15%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;-5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;-5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;15%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;-20%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;25%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
 &lt;/tbody&gt;
&lt;/table&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The returns are identical in both the above scenarios, but in reverse order. In a ‘decumulating’ fund where you are making withdrawals, the order of the returns makes a significant impact on the value at the end of the five-year period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Scenario A, €100,000 invested with €10,000 withdrawals each year would leave residual capital value of €70,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Scenario B, the same investment amount and withdrawals would leave a residual capital value of €47,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, if you experience a poor initial sequence of returns immediately after retirement and make withdrawals during this period (as you may be obliged to do in a post-retirement pension); you effectively crystallise some losses. This can be difficult to recover from as you will continue to make withdrawals each year in retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Mitigating Risk &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are several strategies that can be employed to manage portfolios more effectively and reduce the impact of market downturns on retirement income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An important tool in trying to reduce the fund volatility you experience is to invest in a wide range of assets, known as diversification. Your portfolio should benefit from an appropriate level of diversification, both across assets classes, like shares, property and bonds, and within each asset class. You can also diversify geographically and across industries, and between different fund managers – reducing the risk of overreliance on any one fund manager.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another common strategy for post-retirement clients is to invest in a portfolio with a clear focus on income producing assets. In general terms, income paying assets tend to be more stable than the average when markets are volatile. In addition to this, the ability to take some or all your pension withdrawals from income generated within the fund means that the investments themselves are left mainly intact. This allows you to minimise the degree to which you crystallise losses when the fund falls in any particular year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Finally, when considering a fund on which you are somewhat dependent on for income in retirement, inflation risk should also be considered.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Investing your post-retirement fund in cash, or extremely low risk portfolios, reduces investment and sequencing risk, but increases the risk that the income you can expect from the fund will be worth less and less throughout your retirement in real terms.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This highlights the fundamental challenge to a post-retirement investor: no single type of risk should take precedent or be considered in isolation. Instead, all relevant risks should be considered in a balanced manner, and your expectations regarding your investment portfolio should involve not just an expected return over the long term, but also a good understanding of what your investor experience is likely to be over that period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stephen McEntee is a private client adviser in Unio Wealth Management&#39;s Wealth &amp;amp; Family Office. Stephen &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Stephen%20McEntee&amp;amp;segment=Independent%20Wealth%20and%20Family%20Office&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At &lt;strong&gt;Unio Wealth Management&lt;/strong&gt;, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/1ecefqpb45/vqdcidiuenj1wctetzt8n4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=6&amp;amp;p=64910325&amp;amp;t=33457561__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nfZp5_J4dNquUJWjgK06GKZUAVcTx3BtsZ-MUVNXTr8w1_uqlPWliA8FxUcAxkdQ6PRrdSgbD-BUj0Mcdw$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Preparing for Retirement

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning December 2nd, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch our brief in full:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/w1fm_aPXbH0?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Global equities had a mixed week, overall down -0.3%. Global bond yields fell across the board, led by the US with the 10-year Treasury dropping -0.23% to 4.19%&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Oil and gold prices dropped by 4.8% and 1.7% last week thanks to tensions easing in the Middle East.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Eurozone inflation rose to 2.3% in November, exceeding the target rate for first time in three months.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- In earnings news, companies reporting this week include: Salesforce, Marvell Technologies and, the Royal Bank of Canada.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 2nd December 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;US stock market valuations have only been as high as in 2001 and 2020, market concentration is more extreme than in the late 1920’s (the top ten companies now make up 38% of the market capitalization of the S&amp;amp;P 500 index), and money manager surveys show US households to be the most bullish on future returns from equities since the survey began in the early 1980’s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;So, given this precarious euphoria, when is the crash?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My response is that crashes come in unexpected places and times and, one idea that has not had much coverage but that might become current is the idea of a ‘diplomatic crash’. By this I mean that a host of countries have invested diplomatically, or in terms of soft power, in institutions, partnerships and causes. The acceleration of a multipolar world by the second Trump presidency will crash the value of many of these diplomatic investments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;An example might be the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and the US, the seeds of which were sown by Roosevelt and Churchill during the second world war (Churchill coined the term in 1946), and later cultivated by Thatcher/Reagan and then the Bushes and Clintons with both John Major and Tony Blair. Today, it is very hard to see any personal chemistry, or philosophical common ground between Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer. If the ‘special relationship’ were a stock or even a crypto coin, its value would be at a historic low.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In more detail, the idea of the ‘diplomacy crash’ came to me the night before I voted in Ireland’s general election. Ireland is a very quirky, even eccentric country from a geopolitical view in that unlike many other European countries there is close to no debate in Irish politics on defence and security, and its defence capability is miniscule compared to benchmark countries like Norway and Sweden.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context Ireland, like many other mid-ranking developed countries, is about to suffer a diplomatic crash. It has, correctly, invested heavily in the UN and the rules-based order. Some of the pillars of this order, like the World Trade Organisation – effectively built by an Irishman (Peter Sutherland) – are in a state of dereliction. It may well be the case that the UN ceases to be effective in dispute resolution between states, world health policy and great power coordination.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In addition, together with Spain and Norway, Ireland has spent significant geopolitical capital supporting Palestine (all three countries recently recognized Palestine as a state). Here, it cannot be ruled out that a grand peace deal is made in the Middle East, between Israel, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, whose goal is to create greater investment and commercial flows between these countries and strategically disable Iran, but whose outcome is to render the ‘two-state’ solution unachievable. This new, harsh reality would leave the humanitarian led foreign policies of many European countries well ‘off-side’, compared to the stance of the Trump administration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ireland is just an example here, and there are plenty of other crashes in diplomatic capital – Germany’s trade policy with China, and potentially Japan’s relationship with the USA, France’s relationship with Africa and in general the cultivation of the rules-based order by democracies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In finance, when a market crash occurs, investors become structurally risk averse, run for safe assets and generally retract positions. This might be the same in diplomacy. The risk then is a more unsure, less engaged diplomatic world, and worryingly one where the international rule of law is ignored.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In Europe, reflecting the lessons of the euro-zone financial crisis, this may imply that EU foreign policy becomes more consistent across countries (though perhaps not yet unified) and more focused (Katja Kallas is perhaps the most forceful foreign policy chief that the EU has had). In addition, new policy coalitions and leadership groups will form, notably so in the case of the Nordic and Baltic states on defence and immigration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The EU also needs to stop geopolitical hedging by its members. Hungary under Viktor Orban has become notoriously close to Russia, and whilst Serbia had tried to play both sides it seems more comfortable as a bona fide EU nation (it is an accession state).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Once Ireland’s election result is clear, the first task for its leaders may be to choose sides – solidarity with Europe and active participation in the EU defence effort,&amp;nbsp;or a singular, eccentric relationship with the Trump administration.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week, Mike.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Diplomacy Crash

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning November 25th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch our brief in full:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/1bffdIRXyic?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• It was a strong week for equities, supported in part by Nvidia&#39;s robust earnings. Nvidia continues to deliver with revenue up 94% from a year ago to $35.1bn.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• As earnings season wraps up, notable companies reporting this week include Zoom Technologies, Dell Technologies, and Workday Inc.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Zoom&#39;s stock has risen 24.1% this year, Dell&#39;s stock is up 92.8% YTD due to the AI transition, while Workday’s stock remains flat on the back of lower revenue forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Key macro events to watch this week are the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, the second estimate of US Q3 GDP, and Eurozone inflation data.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 25th November, 2024

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Act Now on Your Year End Company Pension Contribution&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The recent budget and Finance Act introduced changes to Personal Retirement Savings Accounts (PRSAs), including a cap on company contributions starting in 2025.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Until the end of 2024, employers can contribute unlimited amounts to an employee&#39;s PRSA. This is a great opportunity for businesses to make significant pension contributions without needing to increase taxable salaries.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, from January 2025, contributions will be limited to 100% of the employee&#39;s earnings.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Please get in touch to see how we can help you make the most of this opportunity before the window closes.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Changes to PRSAs&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This year’s budget and subsequent Finance Act presented changes for PRSAs and re-introduces a limit on company paid PRSA contributions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Until the end of 2024, there is no limit to the amount an employer can contribute to a PRSA for a company director or other employee.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Traditionally, a large pension contribution would mean the need for an individual to also have a large salary or an extensive employment period.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Currently, a business can contribute significantly to an employee’s pension fund without the need for the individual to draw a higher taxable salary or have long company service.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;When funding via a PRSA, the only real limitation currently is the tax efficient Standard Fund Threshold (SFT) limit of €2M.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From 1st January 2025, this will change, and employer contributions to PRSAs will be limited to 100% of the employee’s earnings.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The table below outlines some of the features of a PRSA and why it is currently such an attractive funding option.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCQMWZGFO3OZFBLO3LINDW5L6NFE?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Act Now on Your Year End Company Pension Contribution&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fy73&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCQMWZGFO3OZFBLO3LINDW5L6NFE&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Act Now on Your Year End Company Pension Contribution.JPG&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Funding for Spouses&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the case of spouses working in the same business, many companies fund only one pension for a couple.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are many advantages for putting two separate pensions in place – one for each spouse.&amp;nbsp;This is particularly advantageous where the couples pension funds will exceed €800,000. Funding individually, rather than a couple, will provide the opportunity for each spouse to take a tax-free pension lump sum.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Important Changes to PRSA Contributions

&lt;p&gt;3 Mins Read&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;David Moran, Director, Independent Wealth &amp;amp; Family Office, writes about the significant wealth transfer which will define the coming decades. The article discusses how high-net-worth individuals can protect and grow their wealth through diversified investments, tax efficiencies, and legacy planning. It also highlights the importance of navigating family dynamics and understanding differing goals across generations.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It will likely be no surprise to read that a significant transfer of wealth is underway in Ireland and beyond.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Across the developed world, the coming years will see trillions’ worth of investment and housing wealth move, primarily from the baby boomer generation to their children. This transfer of family wealth between generations will be a defining trend for the decades ahead. So, as a client seeking advice in passing on wealth efficiently, how might you begin that conversation with your adviser?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Wealth in Ireland&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Ireland, wealth has grown significantly over recent decades driven by economic development a thriving-tech sector, and a rising property market. Ireland is the 20th wealthiest country in the world, with an average wealth per capita of €250,000. Switzerland tops the list at €710,000 per capita.1&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Wealth as a Legacy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many high-net worth individuals and families focus on protecting their assets through diversified investments, tax efficiencies and legacy planning to secure wealth for future generations.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When it comes to advising a client, early meetings are primarily about building trust, recognising that wealth for some individuals represents not just financial success but a legacy with personal, emotional, and generational dimensions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Navigating Family Dynamics&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sensitivity to these dynamics is critical; wealth serves as a foundation for opportunities, but it can also be a source of complexity, with differing goals across family members, particularly when it comes to more sensitive areas of discussion such as the provision of long-term care, Enduring Power of Attorney and, legacy giving need to be explored.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Different generations for example may have completely different views as to how assets should be invested. A younger family member may wish to invest to grow the assets, while the older generation might place more emphasis on protecting the wealth they have spent a lifetime accumulating.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Increasingly, younger investors are becoming more conscious of ESG investment screening – a means of measuring the Environmental and Social impact of the investment of their assets. Consequently, the plan for the transfer of assets itself will sometimes involve an associated restructuring of an investment portfolio to reflect a stronger focus on ESG investments, for example exposure to renewable energy, or simply equities within dedicated ESG investment funds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Preferences as to how to engage with financial planning or investment advice can often vary also. At the risk of generalisation, younger clients may place more emphasis on being able to access advice and information online or through other digital channels; while older clients may prefer a more traditional, face-to-face relationship with their advisers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Strategy with Empathy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, as a client seeking advice in passing on wealth efficiently, how might you begin the conversation?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Firstly, take the time to fully understand and document your own priorities. Do you simply want to pass wealth to the next generation tax-efficiently? Perhaps you have other philanthropic goals? Have you taken the time to understand your own needs in retirement before prioritising others? This may involve the support of one or more professional advisers, be that a tax or financial planning professional.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Secondly, introduce the other parties involved in the wealth transfer to your advisers and involve them in the conversation. This step might initially be as simple as providing them with a current statement of affairs including a list of your own advisers.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;No two families are the same. When it comes to your plan to pass on wealth, your circumstances should be reflected in an approach that is nuanced and appropriate to you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;David Moran is a Director in Unio&#39;s Independent Wealth &amp;amp; Family Office. David &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=David%20Moran&amp;amp;segment=Independent%20Wealth%20and%20Family%20Office&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;References:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. Global Wealth Report 2024, UBS&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Protecting and Growing Family Wealth

&lt;p&gt;John F Kennedy is famous for many things, but a lesser-known accomplishment is that he won a Pulitzer Prize for a bestselling book entitled ‘Profiles in Courage’ that told the stories of eight American political figures (mostly senators if I recall) who took morally courageous stands on issues that went against the views of their parties and popular opinion. An example was John Quincy Adams’ decision to break from the Federalist Party (over foreign policy).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Like all things Kennedy, the book was a dazzling success, but also had a few magical ingredients. It is generally accepted that Ted Sorensen, adviser and speechwriter to Kennedy, contributed much of the book, or in his own terms, he wrote ‘many of the words in the sentences’. Equally, the book did not make it through the formal entry process for the Pulitzer, but was nudged into the competition by Joe Kennedy, the president’s father.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As an aside, in the context of the recent presidential election, it could well be argued that Joe Kennedy was a Trumpian figure…or that Trump is simply following the ‘Patriarch’s’ (David Nasaw’s book of this title is very good) example. Kennedy accomplished more as a businessman than Trump but fell short in his political career. Instead, he groomed Joe jnr (killed in the second world war), then John, Bobby and Ted.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of Joe senior’s achievements was his appointment as American ambassador to the UK, but his term was cut short for his perceived stance on appeasement. With some irony and independence, Joe snr had encouraged the publication of his son’s Harvard thesis as a book. ‘Why England Slept’ queried the ‘soft’ stance of the British government towards Germany and argued that if Britain had re-armed earlier, and taken a more robust stance with Germany, the second world war may not have happened, or at least might have taken a different path (the book was a great success and the British royalties were given to the city of Plymouth which had been badly bombed by the Luftwaffe).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Though Robert Kennedy junior may now take the ‘Kennedy’ limelight, the message of JFK’s books echoes with today’s world. In a couple of years’ time, someone might write ‘Why Europe Slept?’ in the sense that Europe has let its guard slip on security and not built defence infrastructure to keep up with the threat of Russia.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a week where a Chinese vessel is suspected of cutting a telecoms cable between Germany and Finland, when the first EU defence and space commissioner has been confirmed (Andrius Kubilius’ first task is to compile an inventory of Europe’s defence supply chains) and where the intercontinental ballistic missiles have been used on Ukraine, there is a sense that Europe is still not ready for the worst.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The idea of ‘profiles in courage’ is even more pertinent. In a multipolar world, where countries and companies have to ‘take sides’, where America arguably will become more transactional and less relationship driven in its foreign policy and, where democracy is being eroded from within and afar, moral courage will be at a premium.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One unfortunate example here is Olaf Scholz’ moral capitulation in calling Russia’s president last week, ostensibly to lay the groundwork for a peace deal. Scholz likely had the upcoming German elections in mind, but his call was rewarded with an intense bombardment of Kiev.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This has left Scholz even more discredited, and there is now a growing debate around his future as SPD leader and the prospect that he could be replaced by Boris Pistorius, the popular defence minister.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having Pistorius in place as Social Democrat leader by the time of the election might boost the party and would also make a coalition with the CDU easier to form and more ideologically consistent. As it stands, the polls show the CDU/CSU with some 32% of the vote, the SPD on 16%, AfD at 19% and Sara Wagenknecht’s party at 7%. At that rate the CDU-SPD coalition might need to take on a smaller partner, but in effect Merz would be the dominant partner.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A Merz-Pistorius lead coalition could be a real change for Germany, could reignite its economy and remake its energy policy, and may turn it into a more robust geopolitical player vis a vis Russia.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My advice is that they both read the works of John Kennedy.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week, Mike.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Profiles in Courage

&lt;p&gt;This month’s Global Macro Council focused on Trump&#39;s second term.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The tenor of that term is becoming clearer with the nomination of new cabinet members.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two major risks are emerging.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Firstly, the response to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could lead to supply chain disruptions and strained relations between the US, China, and Europe. Secondly, the Trump cabinet&#39;s policies might lead to higher inflation and rising bond yields, potentially causing a downturn in asset prices.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The policies of the Trump cabinet are expected to have varying impacts on different sectors. Increased energy production may help control inflation but could harm energy stocks. The financial sector could benefit from deregulation, while the approach to large technology firms remains uncertain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Unio-GMC-Outlook_November-2024_Trumps-Second-Try.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more in November’s Global Macro Council Outlook&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Trump - The Second Try

&lt;p&gt;In what has been a weeks of wall-to-wall election coverage, our webinar is a must-watch for anyone looking at the bigger picture.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What is the ripple effect of Trump&#39;s win?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hosted by Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions at Unio, in conversation with our guest speakers: Shanella Rajanayagam, Trade Economist at HSBC and Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thank you to our speakers. You may watch the webinar in full below. &lt;em&gt;(32 minutes) &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/PZl4ele31KM?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The discussion focuses on several key areas:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Trade Policy: The heightened uncertainty in trade policies and the need for scenario planning due to Trump&#39;s unpredictable tariff policies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Geopolitical Risks: The significant geopolitical shifts that could either rejuvenate the American Empire or signify its decline.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Inflationary Effects: Trump&#39;s potential tariffs could lead to inflationary pressures in the US and globally.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Economic Impact: Studies suggest that US GDP could be negatively impacted by Trump&#39;s trade policies, with potential long-term effects on global GDP.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Impact on Europe: How Europe, particularly Ireland, may need to navigate the new trade dynamics and geopolitical risks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Environmental Policies: Trump&#39;s administration is likely to weaken international environmental agreements. However, this shift could create opportunities for entrepreneurs focused on environmental innovation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Investment Opportunities: Despite the risks, there may be investment opportunities, particularly in Europe, as markets adapt to the new geopolitical landscape.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A key takeaway is that while there may be some turbulence ahead, from an investment perspective, this should not be a cause for alarm. There will likely be positive opportunities over the next few years, which we must consider when positioning client portfolios. At Unio, we are committed to maintaining a long-term view and not reacting excessively to short-term fluctuations. This principle is consistently applied in our investment strategies.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Ripple Effect of the US Election

&lt;p&gt;If any readers travel to Singapore, I can recommend they visit the Botanic Gardens to sense the dawn break. A badly adjusted body clock brought on by jet lag meant that I found myself jogging around the Gardens at 5.30am on Monday and Tuesday mornings – uplifted by the sounds, smells and sights of this mini paradise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My few days in Singapore, principally to speak at the Founders Forum gathering, allowed me to gauge the Asian reaction to the prospect of a second, more menacing Trump term in office.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I did so armed with the memory of a May 2016 visit to Singapore where I had asked a gathering of some 300 people to compile a word cloud (using their mobiles) of thoughts and emotions they associated with Donald Trump. The result was harsh, and very few of the participants that day thought Trump would be elected as president in 2016, and just as few thought that Brexit would happen.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To my mind the event was emblematic of the certainty of the era of globalization, and the ways in which this was smashed by events like the first Trump presidency, Brexit and the smothering of Hong Kong’s open society.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Singapore is one of the most important places to observe these changes from – it is highly globalized (the DHL Connectedness Report highlights it as the most globalized country in the world), delicately balanced between the Chinese commercial and American worlds, and institutionally one of the strongest countries (though it is one tenth the size of County Cork, it has an active army nearly ten times the size of that of Ireland). As a leading ‘micro-power’ it has an even greater stock of soft power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, Singapore will acutely feel the rising tensions between China and America especially in terms of the technologies it uses, investment flows and diplomacy. For context, the soon to be secretary of state Marco Rubio has laid out the fault lines in the relationship between China and America in an interesting document entitled ‘The World China Made’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, several prominent politicians in Singapore such as prime minister Laurence Wong have declared the end of the ‘golden era of globalization’. My guess is that in the Trump era, Wong and colleagues will have to tread incredibly carefully diplomatically. Economically, it is clear that Singapore’s role as the wealth hub of Asia, or its ‘Geneva’ is gathering pace, and also obvious that its economy is benefitting from the growing prosperity in countries like Indonesia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are two other aspects of my visit that are worth stressing, less for what they say about Singapore but more for what they tell us about how the ‘West’ is perceived.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, with regard to Europe, in two separate meetings I was asked if I thought the euro would survive. This greatly surprised me as not only do I think the euro is a solid, though not yet perfectly formed currency, I have not been asked that question in Europe in nearly ten years. It suggests that Europe still has a reputational problem, or that at very least its ‘message’ is not reaching Asia. Conversely, it seems that there are too few Asian voices in the European media – connecting us to what is happening in cities like Singapore and Hong Kong.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second reflection, which also resonates across Europe, is that for the first time in at least a century, an American presidency is being launched that has a manifestly threatening and aggressive stance towards the rest of the world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;America has historically been the builder of relationships, alliances and institutions (Pax Americana) and its (soft) power has been built on this. The tenor of the Trump cabinet is increasingly clear, and many of the appointees appear to have been selected on the basis that they did bad things in the past, or that they are prepared to do bad things to others in the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is the great unknown for the USA, that its new posture towards the rest of the world causes it to lose influence and friends.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Distance

&lt;p&gt;The Unio Weekly View for the week beginning November 11th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Check out our investment brief below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/ms2gW-OyItQ?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- The &#39;Trump Trade&#39; greatly benefited equities and bitcoin last week as investors expect tax cuts and less corporate regulation from a second Trump presidency.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Global bond yields all fell last week as both the US and UK central banks continued their rate cutting cycle.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- US headline and core inflation data for October will be released on the 13th. The current headline and core rates stand at 2.4% and 3.3% respectively.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- On the 14th Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell, will speak in relation to the central bank’s decision to cut rates by a further 25bps. It’s also worth keeping an eye out for UK Q3 GDP on the 15th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Tencent, Walt Disney and Alibaba all report results this week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 11 November, 2024

&lt;p&gt;Donald Trump will be president of the United States for a second time, defying those who thought his first term was an anomaly and who considered that the American people still care about the rule of law. He will preside over the 250th anniversary of US independence, the next Olympics and World Cup.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is an election result of such great consequence that it will decide whether America’s hegemony is renewed, or that its empire fades like so many others have done through the ages. Fittingly, I woke up to the news of Trump’s victory in Vienna, a city that knows a thing or two about empires. In that context, an interesting and possibly underread book is ‘The Hapsburg Way – 7 rules for turbulent times’ by Eduard Habsburg, known formally as the Archduke of Austria and now a career diplomat for Hungary.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Of Habsburg’s seven rules, the most important are ‘Believe in the empire, and your subsidiarity’ and ‘Respect law and justice’. Trump will likely not do well on these counts, nor does he score on ‘Be Catholic’ though the Catholic church has chased his coattails through the electoral campaign. He does better on ‘Get married and have many children’ and ‘Be brave in battle’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The book is full of interesting snippets, such as that the first governor of Texas (in 1691) was installed by the (Spanish) Habsburgs. In that respect the only blemish in the book is the foreword, written by Habsburg’s boss Viktor Orban, who this week held court over his European counterparts in Budapest, in the wake of the Trump victory.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While I think that Trump will be much more disruptive for Asia and Europe, and that his presidency will see an unprecedented re-shaping of the Middle East, a great deal of media attention is devoted to his impact on Europe and NATO. Overall, the reaction is far too alarmist and the vision of world leaders cowering before Trump gives little acknowledgement of his and America’s vulnerabilities.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite this, with near comic timing, only hours after Trump’s victory was confirmed, the squabbling German government fell apart, a development that has been simmering for some time.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Germany will likely have an election next March, and this is good news. Scholz’ ineffective and indecisive government will be thrown out (Scholz may also be replaced by Boris Pistorius at the head of his party), and Germans will vote in a centre-right government, if polls are to be believed. There is very strong appetite on the part of German businesses to restart the economy, unblock planning laws and rethink energy policy. This much was very clear to me when speaking with investors and businesspeople in Hamburg (after Vienna).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If a new centre-right government transpires in Germany, this should re-engage the political engine at the heart of Europe between France and Germany. But there is a small chance that Emmanuel Macron will not be president of France in a year’s time. Macron, who this week compared Europe’s fate to ‘herbivore in a climate of carnivores’, is fantastically unpopular in France and it cannot be discounted that the Rassemblement will try to bring him down in 2025. Similarly, there is a risk that far-right parties in Europe are emboldened by the Trump victory.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Apart from the travails of the German and French leaders, there is a shift of power going on across Europe – in favour of Poland and Italy, and towards the Baltics/Nordics. The sense is that a Trump led US will bring about the end to the Pax Americana, which may initially leave Europe more vulnerable diplomatically, though ultimately it will become more independent (to America’s disadvantage). Arguably the loser here is the UK, stranded offside the EU, and at odds with Trump and his vice-president.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A Trumpian America, if true to the caricature, will leave Europe as the last bastion of democracy and independent institutions. This is a great challenge and one that most people are not ready for. In events I speak at, a trick question I pitch to the audience is to ask how many of them (usually accomplished, educated people) would enter politics – in most cases there are few volunteers. If European democracies are to be renewed, politics must re-civilise itself and to quote Eduard Habsburg, politics also needs more brave people.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another area to watch is institutions. Donald Trump already politicised the Supreme Court and might well do the same with the Federal Reserve. On Thursday the Fed, oddly in my view, cut rates, but the press conference after the meeting was dominated by Chair Powell denying that he would resign if Trump requested he do so. As America’s institutions may become more politicised, and world institutions like the UN and WTO become less relevant in a Trumpian world, Europe needs to ensure that the independence and competence of its institutions is pristine.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Returning to the topic of defence, perhaps the most interesting confirmation hearing (by the EU Parliament) of EU commissioners designate was that of Andrius Kubilius, the Lithuanian, first defence commissioner. His first task will be to deliver a paper (in 100 days from now) on the state of defence procurement, the integration of defence supply chains and the opportunities for a more intensive commitment to space technology. In his commentary, he revealed that a pan-European missile defence shield could cost up to Eur 500bn. So, we should brace ourselves for the issue of EU war bonds to pay for this.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To end this note with a very big picture view, in the context of the theme of the ‘Levelling’, Trump’s first victory was a wrecking ball to globalization. This second one shatters it completely and will try to remake America and the world order with a narrative and vision (‘tariffs’, ‘deportation’, ‘loyalty tests’) that will deglobalize. Politically, Trump has sold Americans a political vision based on the Leviathan (the people surrender their liberty to a singular leader in return for protection). Europe is still a ‘Leveller’ type system (bottom up democracies). Of the two approaches, I am with the Levellers.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Want to hear more? Join us at our next webinar:&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Global Markets After the Vote – The Ripple Effect of the US Election. &lt;/strong&gt;This webinar is a must-attend for anyone looking at the bigger picture as an&amp;nbsp;investor.&amp;nbsp;We will cut through the noise to explore how&amp;nbsp;Trump&#39;s victory could impact markets globally, with a focus on what it&amp;nbsp;means for Ireland’s economy, local business, and individual investments.&amp;nbsp;Join us on Wednesday,&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;13th November at 11 am&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;to get valuable insights and stay prepared for whatever changes may come.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7474495881785115482&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Register here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Empire

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Donald Trump will be president of the United States for the second time, a development that will dramatically alter the course of American society and have many implications for the world order. The fact that the Senate has shifted to the Republicans will enable Trump, notably in assembling his cabinet and in shaping new legislation. In policy terms, an important difference between the next and the previous Trump government will be an ideological coherence and more singular organisations. In addition, the Trump victory will likely trigger a shift in power within the Democratic party.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Amidst a very strong turnout, America looks divided, and the campaign has been rancorous. Trump’s election will have implications for healthcare, women’s health, immigration, and law - in most cases not for the better.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In terms of foreign policy, the world’s view of America will change, compared to the sense people have had of it over the past fifty years. The re-shaping of the Middle East, to Iran’s detriment, will accelerate. It is likely that Trump will push for a deal of sorts between Ukraine and Russia, though Ukraine and Europe may well contest the parameters of this.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Europe will feel lonelier diplomatically and will need to become more independent. A power shift from large countries like Germany to eastern states like Poland, as well as Italy, will occur and Viktor Orbán will continue to irritate colleagues. For the UK’s Starmer-led government, the notion of the ‘special relationship’ may well be over.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ireland may not suffer diplomatically in the way Germany or the UK might, but trade and investment policy are more uncertain now, and there is a growing sense that like other European countries, there is a divergence between American society and that of Ireland.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Economically, there is a perception that Trump is ‘good for business’ in the sense that regulation will be pared back, and taxes can fall. Trade policy is likely to be much more aggressive, granted some of the policies that have been crafted by members of the Trump entourage, and, few allies (i.e. Japan, South Korea) will be spared. Europe will be pivotal here in terms of how it plays the US-China trade relationship.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Trump may find that the one force that reins him in is the bond market. In the context of a very high deficit and near record levels of government debt, the room for fiscal manoeuvre is limited, though he is not known to favour tax hikes. In that respect, bond and dollar volatility may be the financial markers of the second Trump presidency, and this could well be exacerbated if he changes the make-up of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equities may see a short-term rally, but valuations are now at historically high levels, and ironically international investors may prefer to consider emerging and European assets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Want to hear more?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Join us at our next webinar: &lt;strong&gt;Global Markets After the Vote – The Ripple Effect of the US Election. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In what will undoubtedly be a week of wall-to-wall election coverage,&amp;nbsp;this webinar is a must-attend for anyone looking at the bigger picture as an&amp;nbsp;investor.&amp;nbsp;We’ll cut through the noise to explore how&amp;nbsp;the U.S. election could impact markets globally, with a focus on what it&amp;nbsp;means for Ireland’s economy, local business, and individual investments.&amp;nbsp;Join us on Wednesday, &lt;strong&gt;13th November at 11 am&lt;/strong&gt; to get valuable insights and stay prepared for whatever changes may come.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7474495881785115482&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Register here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
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   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; width=&quot;100%&quot; style=&quot;width: 100%; padding: 0cm 18.75pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Trump 2.0 - Implications

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning November 4th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our weekly brief&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/xiz66I9AJ1A?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ahead of tomorrow&#39;s US vote, the Dollar index has sold off as the polls continue to tighten between both candidates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Global equities had a difficult week, down 1.4% driven by weaker than expected earnings in the tech space.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Global bonds rose as the UK budget was not well received and caution continues ahead of the US election.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Eurozone inflation fell to 2% in October, in line with the European&#39;s Central Bank&#39;s target.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The Federal Reserve and Bank of England have interest rate calls on Thursday.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Berkshire Hathaway, Ryanair and Novo Nordisk all announce earnings this week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 04 November, 2024

&lt;p&gt;Budget 2025 saw the lifetime thresholds for Capital Acquisitions Tax increase – and with these changes already in effect, it’s never been a better time to think about how you can engage in tax-efficient estate planning.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The last thing anyone wants to have to think about when they have just lost a loved one is a tax bill. Building your legacy isn’t easy and you don’t want to see your hard work swallowed up by the tax man when the next generation receive their inheritance.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are numerous ways that you can tax efficiently pass assets to your family, both during your lifetime and as part of your legacy. The earlier you start, the bigger the potential tax savings.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Capital Acquisitions Tax (CAT)&lt;/strong&gt; is charged on assets that you receive as a gift or inheritance and the current rate of this tax is 33%. Of course, you can receive a certain level of wealth this way tax free, within ‘threshold’ limits. These limits depend on your relationship to the recipient of the gift or inheritance.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Parents typically look to pass their wealth to the next generation where there is a surplus of wealth, or likely to be one over time. Where a gift or inheritance from a parent to child, the first €400,000 given or inherited, can be received tax free. Beyond this though, it’s a different story. The thresholds are less generous between different groups.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCOQSE43FS6ZCNTMR6SVU63B7U4I?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Lifetime CAT Thresholds&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fy49&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCOQSE43FS6ZCNTMR6SVU63B7U4I&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Lifetime CTA Thresholds.PNG&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In fact, the current threshold from parent to child is quite low when you consider that the average house price across Ireland is €335,000* with many properties selling for amounts well in excess of this. This can lead to children having to sell an inherited property that may have been owned by a family for some time, simply to meet a tax liability.&amp;nbsp; *source CSO, Property Price Index, April 2024.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, how can you pass on your wealth and make sure that the next generation can benefit in the way that you would hope?&amp;nbsp;Here are a few planning ideas that might be of benefit to you.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Make a will&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ensure your Estate is divided up on death to make the most of those tax-free thresholds, i.e. leave assets to everyone who has a threshold available to them, including grandchildren and your children’s spouses/partners. Don’t let the laws of intestacy decide who receives the assets you’ve spent your lifetime building up - or the associated tax bill!&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Small Gift Exemption&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;During your lifetime you can gift to your children up to €3,000 every year tax free. In fact, you can gift this amount to as many people as you like each year, without it attracting any tax for the recipient or you – although it is important to make sure you can meet your own needs before you consider gifting. For example, if a couple were to each gift to their two sons, their two daughters-in-law and five grandchildren over the next 20 years, they would reduce the value of their estate on death and gift a total of €1,080,000 – all tax free. This would represent a tax saving of €356,400 – and all without utilising any of the available tax-free thresholds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Consider a savings plan&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you plan to give larger gifts during your lifetime that might lead to the recipient exceeding their lifetime threshold limit, you might consider starting a special type of savings plan, the value of which is specifically used for the payment of CAT. This could be useful if you intend to provide a large gift in the future, perhaps for a property purchase.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What about your pension assets?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you’re already retired, you may have an Approved Retirement Fund (ARF). If an ARF is left, as part of your will, to anyone other than your spouse or children it will be subject to income tax at your marginal rate. Additionally, the remaining balance, after the deduction of income tax, will be further reduced by CAT. Addressing inheritance of ARF specifically in your Will can ensure it doesn’t fall into the residue of your estate and end up being inherited by someone other than your spouse/child.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Consider taking out a life insurance policy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A Section 72 ‘whole of life’ life insurance policy can be taken out specifically for the payment of a CAT liability. The value of the policy itself, where established correctly, is exempt from any CAT. This can provide much-needed cash for your beneficiaries to pay inheritance tax on illiquid assets like property. Furthermore, the pay-out can be larger than the accumulated value of the associated premiums, and unlike other types of life policies, a whole of life policy is guaranteed to pay out on death.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Look at offsetting tax on personal investment assets&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some investments may be subject to exit tax on death, but this tax can be offset against any CAT incurred by the recipient when they inherit the investment. It’s worth considering leaving such investments specifically to someone who will also incur an inheritance tax liability on receipt of them and can therefore avail of the tax offset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Other assets may be subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) if you gift them during your lifetime. However, if the recipient has used up their lifetime threshold and is subject to CAT on the gift, this CAT can be offset against the CGT you have paid.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would like to find out more about gifting and legacy planning, speak to your Unio adviser and they will talk you through the best solutions for you or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch with us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Preserving Wealth and Legacy - Smart Inheritance Tax Planning

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A headline in last week’s Guardian caught my eye. It read ‘No-one will save you’ and detailed the bubbling awakening of a volcano near Grindavik in the south of Iceland. Granted that we were in the area, we drove down to have a look. My family didn’t share my ‘lava-lust’ and luckily for them the police were still in place and roads to the volcano were closed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;However, the ‘no one will save you theme’ is also relevant to Iceland in the financial sense, in the way it represents a rare example of a small, powerless country that resolved its banking and debt crisis by itself, in a very painful but ultimately productive way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Some readers may recall that in the mid 2000’s Icelandic entrepreneurs were making headlines with bids for leading British retailers like Hamleys and Karen Millen. That a small, fish led economy of some 350,000 people could produce such brash, adventurous capitalists has less to do with Iceland’s Viking and Celtic heritage than the over supply of cheap money from its banks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At the time&lt;strong&gt;,&lt;/strong&gt; Iceland vied with Ireland for the title of ‘biggest banking sector’ (relative to GDP). According to a presentation deck from Mar Gudmundsson&lt;strong&gt;,&lt;/strong&gt; the Norwegian who took over as head of Iceland’s central bank post the crisis, the Icelandic banking sector grew by a factor of three times between 2004 and 2008. Specifically, Iceland’s banks, the likes of Glitnir, Landsbanki and Kaupthing (all AAA rated of course) were growing their balance sheets at a rapid rate (to a near record 10 times Iceland’s GDP) and bankers travelled from London to sell them new, genius investment ideas.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Like Ireland, Iceland became admired for its ‘model’ economy, and took advantage of the fawning of other Nordic countries and bodies like the OECD to sell more ‘Glacier bonds’.&amp;nbsp;There are plenty of colourful stories about the exploits of Icelandic bankers at that time, but to cut a long story short, when the global financial crisis struck in October 2008, the Icelandic banking system quickly collapsed.&amp;nbsp;As a small, open economy with meagre financial resources, the fallout was dramatic and painful. In the aftermath of the crisis, the Reykjavik stock market fell by 90%, the corporate bond market cratered, and the currency (Icelandic krona, ISK) by 50%. Many households had borrowed in foreign currencies and as a result saw the burden (in ISK) of their mortgages soar. On paper, Iceland’s debt to GDP hit 700%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A classic banking bubble was soon followed by a deep, textbook ‘bust’ (one economist Hermann Schwartz summed it up as ‘Iceland came late to the global party, drank too quickly, and hit the floor rather harder than larger economies’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What is most interesting about Iceland is the way it resolved its crisis, largely by itself and through the will of the people. This might sound obvious or even trite, but when I compare it to the fallout from Ireland’s economic blow-up whose causes were very similar to Iceland’s banking crisis, Iceland has demonstrated a far greater degree of reform and accountability in its public life. In a world of heavily indebted nations the example of Iceland is one to bear in mind.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Like other European countries at the epicentre of the financial crisis Iceland was gripped by protests. Reform came quickly. The long-serving prime minister, Geir Haarde lost his job (his last speech to the nation ended with the words ‘God save Iceland’), and the governor of the central bank was forced out of his&amp;nbsp;role.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The new government, and to a large extent the Icelandic people are considered to have largely taken ownership of the resolution of the crisis (think of the public opposition to pension reform in France as a counter example). Some thirty-six bankers were tried, sent to jail and fined, a development that is in stark contrast to other crisis hit countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Iceland suffered a brutal financial shock, and a deep hit to the real economy (output dropped 15% in two years), though this was ultimately less severe than the damage done to the Greek and Spanish economies, one reason for this being the manner in which the drop in the ISK made Iceland attractive as an exporter and tourist destination (the curiosity of tourists was also piqued by the explosion of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano and the use of Iceland as a location for Game of Thrones).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A number of financial reforms also helped, the financial regulator was given extra powers, notably to protect deposit holders and new, domestic economy focused banks were created. The government refused to assume responsibility for debt owed to foreign nations and investors (many of whom were in the UK which placed Iceland on a terror watch list). Fiscal austerity was imposed, under the watch of the IMF, but this was less onerous in its conditionality than that imposed on Ireland, Greece and Spain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The result of this reform and readjustment process was that the Icelandic economy began to recover some three years after the crisis started, and according to Iceland’s central bank GDP growth had caught up with the recovery of the US economy by 2018, surpassing that of the euro-zone.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whilst it is a small, idiosyncratic economy, there are some clear lessons from Iceland in terms of how an open economy might deal with a multi-faceted banking, debt and currency crisis.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Very broadly, the key elements involve prioritizing the domestic economy, domestic banking&amp;nbsp;deposits and the free functioning of the financial system,&amp;nbsp;the sense of justice and accountability that comes from ‘regime’ change and the arraignment of guilty bankers,&amp;nbsp;the absence of overly punitive austerity, and the presence of a stabilizing mechanism (in this case the currency).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As I write, Iceland’s economy seems to be thriving, with a new focus on biotech, geothermal power and climate-tech. France, Germany and the UK should pay attention.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

No One Will Save You

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Kim Hong-Kyun is not a name that very many Europeans know, but they really should, given his grave diplomatic intervention last week. Hong-Kyun is the South Korean ‘first foreign minister’, who last week summoned the Russian ambassador to Seoul to register South Korea’s displeasure at the news that up to 12,000 North Korean soldiers are in or on their way to Russia to fight in Ukraine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;While North Korea’s contribution to the Russian war effort is already known (their armaments industry is producing as many shells as Russia itself – and more than all of Europe), the prospect of an Asian state sending soldiers to fight in a European country is unprecedented, and I am perplexed that European governments have not reacted to this (though South Korea, Australia and Japan sent representatives to a recent NATO meeting).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The South Koreans have pledged to arm Ukraine if North Korean troops fight there, raising the complicated prospect of an Asian proxy war in Europe – again something that would have been inconceivable years ago, and that also tilts us towards the notion of a world war.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whilst some readers might find this an exaggeration, we are at a moment of coherence, when threads that have been developing over the years become clearer and begin to describe the contours of the emerging geopolitical order.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One of the notable formations here is the SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which I wrote about in the Levelling (p. 245) describing them as a geopolitical ‘gang’ of the future and sort of anti-NATO coalition, or at least an anti-AUKUS* group. Despite this, few of the university post-grads in international relations I have come across in recent teaching sessions knew of the SCO.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There is a sense that the shadow or the logic of the SCO was lurking behind last week’s BRICS meeting, given the perception that the BRICS is becoming an anti-Western alliance, which in reality is not true. Reinforcing this are the very different cultures across the BRICS countries, and the risk to their project that relations between them depend on individual autocrats rather than institutions or peoples.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Yet, a sign of the times is the manner in which large emerging nations like India and Turkey are hedging their bets in the sense of maintaining good relations with Russia and the US. For India in particular, the BRICS meeting was a chance to begin to repair relations with China.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;They could be forgiven for doing so granted the impact that the outcome of the US presidential election will have on international relations. The choice is one between an effective continuation of the foreign policy of the Biden/Democrat administration in the context of growing pushback against American power, versus a Trump foreign policy that is unsure, opportunistic and likely goes against the deep grain of Republican foreign policy as established by Ronald Reagan, George H Bush, Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;2025 will hopefully see the end of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, following which the notion of the coherence of rival systems will come into sharper focus. It is increasingly clear that the leading autocratic states (Russia and China) are hell bent on undermining the democratic world, and any nations that toy with the idea of joining it (witness the heavy handed Russian interference in last week’s referendum on EU membership in Moldova, and it&#39;s obvious interference in Georgia’s election which takes place this weekend).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The danger is that the sharpening coherence of the SCO is like the development of AI – it has been gathering pace amongst specialists for some time, and then a public event (the launch of ChatGPT) brings it into the public domain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One of the obvious casualties of the emergence of the SCO and indeed the geopolitical trials the world is suffering, is the diminished influence and credibility of world institutions like the UN and WTO (World Trade Organisation), which are being reduced to the role of bystanders in this emerging geopolitical contest.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The scene is set then for the November 5th election to either reinforce or undermine the world order.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Coherence

&lt;p&gt;In an intense year of elections, the most consequential is America’s, which besides many other factors, will have decisive implications for trade.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From an investment point of view, the difference in trade and economic policy between the candidates is stark.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-October-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more in October’s Global Macro Council Outlook.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this month&#39;s GMC, we were fortunate to be joined by guest speakers Shanella Rajanayagam, Trade Economist at HSBC and Arnab Das, Global Market Strategy at Invesco, EMEA. Thank you both for your insights and expertise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Re-Globalising Trade

&lt;p&gt;There is a theory abroad that the British Empire was so vast and dominant, simply because a large country (England) was attached to a brilliant small country (Scotland). It is true that many of the individuals we associate with the advancement of Britain are Scottish - economist Adam Smith, scientists James Watt, Alexander Fleming and Alexander Graham Bell, and writers like Arthur Conan Doyle and Walter Scott. More recently, some of the more prominent political figures in Westminster have been Scottish – such as Gordon Brown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This year is the tenth anniversary of the Scottish independence referendum, which whilst the motion for independence was defeated, set in train a groundswell in favour of independence and the resulting electoral landslide for the Scottish National Party in the subsequent general election. At the time of the referendum, the SNP was led by Alex Salmond, who died last week, and who was the founding father and driving force of the independence movement (and a subscriber to this note).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the time of the referendum, there was great interest in the prospect of Scotland going it alone, and the way the Scots might dis-engage their economy from England was the focus of attention. In many respects the downfall of the independence side was that they became mired in an argument over the kind of currency arrangement Scotland might have, and the resulting impact that this could have on household finances. In the land of Braveheart, this battle by spreadsheet proved too much.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The independence referendum also brought into focus the kind of socio-economic model that Scotland might enjoy, and this spurred me to start researching the model of small, advanced states, a theme I have developed in collaboration with David Skilling over the years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Simply put, our thesis is that while the likes of Sweden, Switzerland, Singapore, Ireland and the Netherlands are culturally very different they, and a handful of other small states are all highly successful. Alex Salmond used to refer to the northern most small, advanced economies as the ‘arc of prosperity’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Small-advanced states dominate the lists of ‘happiest nation’, ‘most innovative’ and ‘most open economy’, and share a common set of factors upon which their success is built (strong institutions, a healthy regard for the rule of law, prioritisation of education and innovation for example).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, this ‘secret sauce’ tallies with the work of the winners of this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson, the body of whose works links growth to institutions and laws (the book ‘Why Nations Fail’ is worth a read).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the first occasions that David and I presented our work was with Alex Salmond, in Singapore, and since then David in particular has been an active adviser to the Scottish government.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My sense is that the death of Alex Salmond, and the near implosion of the SNP amidst a series of leadership crises (and the resurrection of the Scottish Labour party who have increased their tally of Scottish MPs in Westminster from 2 to 37) will gravely diminish the political momentum towards an independent Scotland. On the other hand, the limits that Brexit places on the UK in general will serve as one of several motivators for the Scots to go their own way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the underlying theses behind the small state model is that they are adaptive and strategic – nimbly ducking around the imbalances of a chaotic world. To a large extent this is still true – the Nordic countries, as well as the smaller Baltic states have impressively upped their game on the security and defence front (Ireland has not), and Sweden and Finland have thrown off their neutrality.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, and a marker of how policy is changing in the Western world, the Nordic state – once a near parody of tolerance – are adopting much tougher stances on immigration, and after too much patience, organised crime. If they are really canaries in the coal mine of world politics, this turning point suggests that in Europe, there is now little welcome for an increase in immigration.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, having been in the vanguard of economic advancement during globalization, small, advanced states are at the forefront of dealing with the challenges of an intensely geopolitical world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Act of  Union

&lt;p&gt;The Minister for Finance, Jack Chambers TD, has published Finance Bill 2024, following approval by Government late last week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Finance Bill 2024 contains important changes to pensions along with other changes that could effect your financial planning. It&#39;s important to note that the changes have been announced but are not in law until ratified through the Finance Act, which usually happens towards the end of the calendar year.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We have reviewed Finance Bill 2024 and picked out the key proposed changes that may have an impact on our advice to you.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While we had expected to see detail on the implementation of the recently announced SFT changes, we were disappointed to see proposed changes to employer PRSA contributions.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;PRSA Contributions&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Employer contributions to PRSAs will be &lt;strong&gt;limited to 100% of the employee’s remuneration&lt;/strong&gt;. Any contribution above this amount will be treated as &lt;strong&gt;Benefit in Kind (BIK)&lt;/strong&gt; and be &lt;strong&gt;subject to income tax&lt;/strong&gt; for the employee.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Employer contributions to PRSAs will still be allowed as a deductible expense for the employer&lt;strong&gt; up to the limit of 100% of the employee’s salary&lt;/strong&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;PRSA changes are expected to come into effect on 01/01/2025.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;If you are planning an employer contribution to your PRSA, it is important that you do not delay and reach out to your Unio Adviser as soon as possible.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Standard Fund Threshold (SFT)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The SFT defines the maximum tax-efficient pension fund in Ireland. It is set to rise to&lt;strong&gt; €2.8 million by 2029,&lt;/strong&gt; with the threshold rising by&lt;strong&gt; €200,000 per annum from 2026 – 2029&lt;/strong&gt;. From 2030 onwards, the threshold is then set to rise in line with an applicable level of growth each year (yet to be determined).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chargeable Excess Tax (CET)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-No changes to the rate of CET applicable on claims above the Standard Fund Threshold (SFT) limit were detailed in the Finance Bill which will remain at &lt;strong&gt;40% &lt;/strong&gt;for the time-being.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-No change was indicated to being able to offset the&lt;strong&gt; 20% tax &lt;/strong&gt;on a retirement lump sum between &lt;strong&gt;€200,000 - €500,000 &lt;/strong&gt;against CET.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We may see a change to both of the above once the first SFT increase happens in &lt;strong&gt;2026.&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Capital Acquisition tax (CAT) Thresholds&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Budget 2025 outlined that the Lifetime CAT thresholds will increase for the first time since 2019. This has mainly been in response to the rapid increase seen in property prices and will allow for a greater transfer of wealth between generations without triggering a tax liability.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Group A Threshold (parent to child) increases from €335,000 to&lt;strong&gt; €400,000.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Group B Threshold (grandchildren and other relatives) increases from €32,500 to &lt;strong&gt;€40,000.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Group C Threshold (other) increases from €16,250 to &lt;strong&gt;€20,000.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There was no mention of a change to the CAT rate of &lt;strong&gt;33%&lt;/strong&gt; so this will still apply to any amounts above the new thresholds.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The threshold increases were effective from 02/10/2024.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Retirement Relief&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Retirement Relief has been amended so that if an individual &lt;strong&gt;aged 55 or over&lt;/strong&gt; disposes of qualifying assets to a child after&lt;strong&gt; 01/01/2025&lt;/strong&gt;,&lt;strong&gt; a lifetime limit of €10m&lt;/strong&gt; will apply.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Capital Gains Tax (CGT) will apply on any balance above this unless the child&lt;strong&gt; retains ownership of the asset for 12 years&lt;/strong&gt;, in which case the CGT will be deferred.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-If the child disposes of the qualifying asset&lt;strong&gt; prior to the 12-year deferment period&lt;/strong&gt;, they will be liable for CGT on the original amount received above the €10m threshold and any subsequent gains on the asset since they received same.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What do these changes mean for you?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For a full understanding of the potential changes and the impact they will have on&amp;nbsp;financial planning for your future, speak to your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Finance Bill 2024

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning October 14th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our brief below.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/1U0MdgG2Gfo?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Last week saw the beginning of Q3 corporate earnings, and as is tradition, financial sector businesses kicked things off. The big news came from the performance of JP Morgan, with the bank comfortably exceeding profit expectations. It was also a good week for Blackrock with their AUM surpassing $11.5Tn after a positive quarter.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-On the macro side the key talking point of the week was US inflation, which came in at 2.4% slightly above economists expectations. There is also growing fears that the German economy will contract this year but bounce back strongly in 2025 as rates fall.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Overall global equity markets were positive for the week up 1.2% led by growth stocks. Fixed income markets were relatively muted over the week off the back of mixed macro news.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 14 10 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Regular readers will know that I travel a lot, always with a preference for boats and trains and by air when necessary. Having spent much of the summer without the need for a plane, the next few months will see an intensification of my travel schedule across Europe, the Middle East and Asia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In most places I will be talking about the economics and politics of a changing world, but the virtue of visiting so many cities (Hamburg to Abu Dhabi for instance) and regions (the Cotswolds to South East Asia) is the opportunity it grants to witness the kinds of growth and development happening in the world, and the measures we can use to compare economic activity across countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Here, a few favourites come to mind. In the 1990’s and early 2000’s it was commonplace for economists and investment strategists in the large banks to rush back from trips to Asia with tales of how many cranes they had seen across the skylines of major Chinese cities and estimates of what this meant for the growth of the Chinese economy. Nowadays, those economists sit on a deck chair in the Marina Bay Sands hotel in Singapore, look out onto the bay and count the number of tankers anchored there as a proxy for global supply chain disruption.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Another tell-tale indicator is taxis. A former colleague, friend and reader of this note, with whom I used to travel to Japan with in the late 1990’s referenced the length of taxi queues as a proxy for Japan’s then moribund economy (often unoccupied taxi ranks would snake around office blocks).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then on a visit to a thriving Abu Dhabi in 2012, my taxi driver got lost (on the way to the airport). He apologised, saying it was his ‘first day’. I assumed he meant it was his first day as a taxi driver, but it turned out that it was his first day in Abu Dhabi. I politely took this as a sign of a vibrant labour market and a strong economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A risk that travelling economists face, not unwittingly, is that they normally stay in the centre of a city, and often in a decent hotel. I wrote a note some time ago describing this as ‘Grande Bretagne’ syndrome, after the teams from the IMF who oversaw the austerity programme of the Greek economy during the euro-zone financial crisis who stayed in the plush Grande Bretagne and Hilton hotels in the city centre. While this placed them near the seat of power, it meant that they were blind to the brutal impact of austerity across the country.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In general, travelling economists should get out and about. For instance, the quality of public transport in a country is a good indicator of the standard of infrastructure and to an extent, social cohesion and, is also a good way to observe a society. Someone observed that a city in which the wealthy use public transport is a well-balanced one (Zurich is a good example). In contrast, there is, inexplicably, no train from Dublin airport to the city centre, but a ride on the Luas tram will give a very good idea of the dramatic changes in Irish society.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In keeping with this approach, a favourite activity to beat jetlag and to either reacquaint with or discover a city is an early morning run (this week’s schedule took in the Tour Eiffel, the Tiergarten and Madrid (the park was closed due to bad weather)). In that idiosyncratic way, My eyes (and feet) are sensitive to the quality of the road surface, pollution and to the appearance of new buildings and signs of dereliction (Berlin scores on both counts).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are other indicators of the economic prowess of cities, such as the rise of tall towers (the UAE for instance). In this tech driven age, a new category of indicators might comprise cities that want to become crypto-hubs (UAE, Miami, Zurich, Lisbon) and those that seek to attract large artificial intelligence (AI) firms (OpenAI has just opened an office in Paris).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As a final note on Madrid, I haven&#39;t seen the city as ‘sleek’ or well presented (the 12th was the national holiday), and it must be said, as expensive. Note that Spain now has a slightly lower interest rate (bond yield) than France, and a considerably higher rate of growth than Germany.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are a lot more Latin Americans than I had expected, and this has both helped tourism, and pushed up house prices (to the ire of some locals). Spain’s golden visa system means that it is the recipient of wealthier Latin Americans leaving countries like Venezuela. At the same time, quite a number of Spanish businesses and executives are relocating to Lisbon, which is a warning sign for innovation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

From Cranes to Crypto

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Winter it seems, across much of Europe, has come early. Two instincts that grow as the evenings darken are the inclination to have a tipple in the evening and to watch a good film. One Danish work that captures both sentiments is &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.festival-cannes.com/en/f/druk/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!m5CdP4wjWeNpTzeY7XT2opD79WAJfFlQZ0laKWMx1xxJGJ0zxBJbJex7G8SXVhHd9ZxtIG0iZ_jDOVxMYXjg9A_9$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;‘Druk’ or ‘Another Round’&lt;/a&gt;, which won the Oscar for best international film in 2021. I recommend it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the film a group of four school teacher friends decide to test the hypothesis of a Norwegian psychologist that humans have a deficiency of alcohol in their blood, and the protagonists undertake an experiment to maintain a ‘warm’ level of alcohol in their blood. It is an experiment I attempt often, but the real lesson today is with central banking.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It seems that central bankers have decided that in the spirit of ‘Druk’, the liquidity in the world financial system is not sufficient and have set out to administer near daily injections of cheap money. The number of central banks changing policy (i.e. to negative) is the greatest it has been, apart from the global financial crisis and the COVID period. In September alone there have been 24 rate cuts from central banks around the world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Chief amongst these has been the 50-basis point cut from the Federal Reserve and the very dramatic, multiple policy moves by China. In short China has cut rates, infused the banking system, made mortgages cheaper and generally tried to spread liquidity over the emerging cracks in China’s economy. In the spirit of ‘Druk’ it is the equivalent of going on a five day bender in order to cure a serious disease.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Nonetheless, the easing in policy from the Fed and China, together with what will likely be a couple of more rate cuts this year from the European Central Bank mean that the world financial system is flush with liquidity. Chinese markets – hitherto the worst performing markets of a major economy – show the impact and importance of liquidity. The market cap of the Hang Seng index has grown by a quarter in less than two weeks. China has overtaken the US in terms of equity market performance to date.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There is no change to fundamentals – I don’t see this policy move having a decisive impact on the downward trend in Chinese earnings, but that doesn’t matter in the near term – liquidity is coursing through the pipes of the Chinese financial system, and in turn might bring a temporary easing to conditions in the property market.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For all the analysts who devote time to measuring earnings and calibrating valuations, the reality is that in this era of ‘quick to please’ monetary policy, liquidity matters a lot for asset prices. My rule of thumb in constructing a measure of liquidity would encompass money supply, the state of central bank balance sheets, the key role of the dollar and net issuance of debt by treasuries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The arcane notion of financial liquidity has attracted enough attention that the Financial Times recently ran an article breaking down its component parts. A couple of top-flight economics consultancies run their own measures of liquidity – such as LongView Economics and Michael Howell at CrossBorder Capital. The latter holds that we are on the cusp of a significant upswing in global liquidity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If that is true, the implication for markets is ‘Druk’- a persistent giddyiness whilst central banks keep rates low and liquidity flush, amidst an acceptable level of GDP and profit growth. This is the kind of macro climate we have seen in the mid and late 1990’s, and one that tends to dampen the market implications of turbulent geopolitics.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;From the point of view of asset prices, there are a couple of possible trajectories. Historically, the Fed has started to cut interest rates when the price to earnings ratio on the S&amp;amp;P 500 has been close to 10 times (1960’s to 1990’s). Now, like in 2000, it is in the mid 20’s which suggests that extra liquidity now could run asset prices in bubble territory proper, and cultivate the next bout of inflation, something the central banks’ bank, the BIS, has warned about (helpfully the BIS has taken a counter view to that of its members ahead of a number of crisis).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For the time being, the upturn in liquidity may be most meaningful for capital markets activity and assets in the private economy. They have been in the doldrums. If the ‘Druk’ hypothesis is working we should see a rise in IPO activity into 2025, and intensification in private equity deals and a rise in funding activity (beyond AI firms) in venture.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then, later in 2025, the hangover will arrive.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Druk

&lt;p&gt;Minister for Finance Jack Chambers announced his first Budget to the Dáil, detailing a host of tax and cost of living measures. This announcement will be followed by the Finance Bill next week, which we expect to confirm other measures, such as amendments to the Standard Fund Threshold. This along with the other recommendations outlined in the&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/standard-fund-threshold-set-to-increase&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; report of the independent examination of the Standard Fund Threshold (SFT)&lt;/a&gt; may have an impact on your retirement planning. A lot of these recommendations for change are long overdue and we have outlined the most important details that may affect you below.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What the recent Standard Fund Threshold changes could mean for you&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On 18th September, Minister Chambers announced several positive changes with regards to pensions ahead of the Finance Bill for 2025. These were announced on the back of a review &amp;amp; recommendations conducted by an independent expert, Dr. Donal de Buitléir. While these changes are still at a very high level and with additional details still to emerge with regards to some of the finer details, they could have a significant impact on how you can plan for your retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Standard Fund Threshold (SFT)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The SFT is the maximum tax-efficient pension fund in Ireland, and it has been set at €2million since 2014. However, the recent announcement is set to see this rise to €2.8million by 2029, with the threshold rising by €200,000 per annum from 2026 – 2029. From 2030 onwards, the threshold is then set to rise in line with an applicable level of growth each year (yet to be determined).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chargeable Excess Tax (CET)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The reason the SFT plays such a key part in retirement planning is that any funds that exceed this €2million limit are subject to a CET of 40%. This tax has been considered overly punishing for those with high pension potential, as the 40% excess could be taxed again once pension income is drawn.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the rate of CET is to remain unchanged for now, a review of this is due to take place by 2030, with a rate as low as 10% recommended.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Retirement Lump Sums&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Under the current rules, a lifetime tax-efficient lump sum of €500,000 can be taken from all combined pension pots. The first €200,000 of this is tax free, while the remaining €300,000 is subject to a standard rate tax of 20% (up to a total of €60,000).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This lump sum amount is not set to rise and will remain at €500,000. It was previously linked as a proportion (25%) of the SFT, but this link is due to be severed and the €500,000 will instead remain as a fixed amount.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Currently, you can receive a credit for any tax paid on a lump sum above the €200,000 with any CET liability to avoid double taxation in this space (so the first €60,000 of CET could be offset against the €60,000 standard tax on a lump sum amount of €500,000). However, if the CET rate be reduced to the recommended 10% in future, then this credit will also likely be abolished. However, this will be reviewed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Other recommendations of interest included in the report&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The removal of annual pension and age-related contribution limits on schemes&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• A review of the capitalisation factors used to determine the overall value of Defined Benefit pension schemes with regards to the SFT, with a decrease in the current age-related factors recommended. This review will be applicable to benefits accrued since 01 January 2014&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Potential allowance for any CET payments to be spread over 20 years instead of a once-off up-front cost to private sector workers&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• A review of the connection between a Pension Adjustment Order (PAO) and the SFT. However, this would need further legal advice to advance any specific proposal.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What this means for you&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While some of these recommendations are in their early stages, they could have a significant impact on your overall pension pot at retirement, depending on where you are in your retirement planning journey and your specific circumstances.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is particularly important if you’re due to retire in 2025 as the changes to SFT limits are not due to come into effect until 2026.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is equally important if you have previously drawn benefits from a pension plan, as depending on the amounts, you may or may not have scope for additional pension funding.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is also an opportunity to revise existing contribution and investment strategies to ensure you are maximising your retirement drawdown potential.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Therefore, it is essential to review your pension strategy with your adviser to receive careful and considered retirement planning advice. They will advise you on the best course of action to take in respect of these changes to ensure you achieve your specific retirement goals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;All eyes will now be focused on the Finance Bill announcement next week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;PRSA Contributions for Business Owners&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While there was no mention of changes to company contribution limits in the Budget, this may change when the Finance Bill is published next week.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Increase to Capital Acquisitions Tax (CAT) Thresholds&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A welcome addition to Budget 2025 was the announcement that the Lifetime CAT thresholds will increase for the first time since 2019. This has mainly been in response to the rapid increase seen in property prices over the past few years and will allow for a greater transfer of wealth between generations without triggering a tax liability.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Group A Threshold&lt;/strong&gt; (parent to child) increasing from €335,000 to&lt;strong&gt; €400,000.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Group B Threshold&lt;/strong&gt; (grandchildren and other relatives) increasing from €32,500 to &lt;strong&gt;€40,000.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Group C Threshold&lt;/strong&gt; (other) increasing from €16,250 to&lt;strong&gt; €20,000.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There was no mention of a change to the CAT rate of 33% so this will still apply to any amounts above the new thresholds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There were also no changes noted to the Small Gift Exemption of €3,000 per annum.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The changes to the CAT rates allow for new opportunities for lifetime gifting and estate planning, and we recommend you discuss this with your Unio Adviser.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Retirement Relief&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This relief is often used when passing on a business to the next generation. CGT at 33% may be due on the gains made by the parent passing on the business to their child. Changes were announced in last year’s budget to the upper age limit and the amounts that can be relieved.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An additional change was announced in Budget 2025 outlining that if the child continues to hold the shares in the business for 12 years, this CGT will be abated in full.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While this is another welcome addition, a cautious approach should be taken until the full mechanics of how this will be implemented are finalised.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Other Changes of Note&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The amount that can be relieved under the popular Employment Incentive Investment Scheme (EIIS) has been doubled from €500,000 to €1 million.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Further information on tax relief on the auto-enrolment scheme, to be introduced from September 2025 as per latest guidance, was provided. Employer contributions can be relieved for tax, and growth on the pension assets will be free of tax.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The Standard rate tax cut off increased from €42,000 to €44,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Personal tax credits increased by €125 to a new threshold of €1,875.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• 4% rate of USC decreased to 3% with a new entry point of €27,382.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Stamp duty on residential property increases with immediate effect. Rates as follows: 1% to €1m, 2% on next €500,000, 6% on excess above €1.5m.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• State Pension increased by €12 per week to €289.70.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• A generous cost of living package was introduced.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Unio-Budget-2025-Highlights.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;View a summary of key Budget 2025 highlights here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would like to discuss how these changes could affect your personal financial plans, speak to your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Budget 2025 Highlights

&lt;p&gt;The Boston Tea Party is an early example of how a trade dispute can reshape an economy (Boston) and foment political change. It is iconic enough that the first presidency of Donald Trump was prefigured by the rise of the Tea Party as a disruptive force in Republican politics.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With the presidential election not far off now, tariffs form the spear-end of Donald Trump’s economic strategy, potentially because he can implement them unilaterally (without the approval of the Senate). In addition, many of his acolytes, from Robert Lighthizer to Peter Navarro, are ‘trade’ obsessed, and have recently published books like ‘No Trade is Free‘ to underline the ways in which they would re-order the international trade system.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, other members of the Trump entourage such as Robert O’Brien, the National Security Adviser (2019-21) has in the July edition of Foreign Affairs Journal invoked the idea that America can bring peace to a disordered world through ‘strength’. In this vision, strength comes in the form of 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and export controls, a message that has repeatedly been emphasised by Trump himself.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that context, a second Trump presidency could begin with a trade war, and a verbal assault on the currencies of ostensible allies that have weakened in recent years, such as the Japanese yen. American consumers and potentially the bond market might pay the price of tariffs &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/sovereign-debt-funds&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;(we wrote last week that Trump wanted to fund the development of a sovereign wealth fund with revenues from tariffs)&lt;/a&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Trade wars are generally not successful, and while Trump may have in mind America’s trade spats with Japan (1987), the weight of past trade disputes going back to the Smoot Hawley Act suggest that there are better ways to guard American economic power. China could respond with measures that cripple supply chains for at least a couple of years. In this scenario, a trade confrontation between the US and China would decisively shatter the axis of globalisation as we know it, and finally render the WTO (World Trade Organisation) obsolete.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A US-China trade war might have many other consequences.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One might be the rise of populous south Asian (and south east Asian) from India to Bangladesh to Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, with Singapore as their organising locus. Many of these countries are urbanising and rolling out infrastructure, most of them need but distrust China, and in most cases aspire to closer commercial ties to the USA. Tariffs on China by the USA will accelerate supply chain de-risking by Western multinationals towards these countries, though this could well complicate their relationship with China.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A second consideration is Europe. The EU has been caught by surprise by the consequences of several Biden administration policies – the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act – which illustrates that US international trade policy is usually made with a view to domestic politics. A second Trump presidency should be no surprise to Brussels, and there is a small but important team of officials working on a policy response to a potential trade war on Europe by Trump.&amp;nbsp;Europe’s trump card may lie in its role as a partner with the US against China. It will be difficult for Washington to reshape trade relations with China, Europe and potentially Japan by taking each one on. Stymieing China is better done in collaboration with Japan and Europe, and Trump should really see the constraints of the policy situation that faces him.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A second Trump presidency will be different to the first in the sense that he has had time to prepare for it, and crucially, his supporters have had four years to concoct a policy strategy (‘2025’ seems to have dropped out of headlines). In the same way, a Harris presidency comes with deeper reserves of policy experts, and to a large sense on the international trade and economic outlook, the Harris case represents ‘more of the same’ in terms of the techno-strategic economic policy that is currently pursued by the White House.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An idealised, and though I like the idea a lot, too lofty rendition of this policy is Walter Russell’s Mead’s September Foreign Affairs essay entitled ‘The Return of Hamiltonian Statecraft’ which argues for the very unTrumpian notion of ‘enlightened patriotism’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, a Harris White House would use trade and investment policy to laser focus on America’s race with China for global supremacy. Driving Chinese economic and investment activity further inwards might be one goal, and ironically anything Washington can do to make Chinese public life more closed and repressive, the better (because it curbs innovation and wealth creation).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, the US and Europe, would both pursue parallel strategies of ‘strategic autonomy’ or what Trump refers to as ‘strategic national manufacturing’ focused on sectors like defence, new computing power (quantum, AI, data storage and management), batteries and new power sources and revolutionary medicine. Europe’s challenge is to find a way of reducing long-term energy costs.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Kamala Harris, who has trialled a few incoherent policies (taxes on unrealised capital gains, price controls) is likely to be more constrained in her fiscal policy – because her government is likely to instinctively focus more on tax and spending changes, for which she will need the help of the Senate (which in turn could tilt towards the Republicans). As such her fiscal policy will focus on not increasing the national debt, and like many other governments, encouraging the private sector to work with government to build out strategic technologies.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Another Tea Party

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning September 23rd, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/BZGxXt4dOOc?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-It was a frantic week for macro news with three of the world&#39;s largest central banks making interest rate calls.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The biggest news was the 50bps cut made by the Federal Reserve, somewhat catching analysts and economists off guard as most had priced in a 25bps cut. The cut, which took the base rate to 5.0%, indicated the Feds growing focus on a softening labour market versus the subsiding inflation challenge.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-In the UK, the Bank of England held its base rate at 5.0%, in an 8-1 vote, with uncertainty growing as to the outlook of the UK economy. The same story was true in Japan, with the Bank of Japan holding their base rate at 0.25%. The net result saw global equities rise over the week, up 0.7%.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The US market drove the returns, whilst both Europe and UK equities were negative on the week. Gold continued its strong rally, up 1.5% whilst crude oil jumped 4.5% due to declining global stockpiles and a sharp interest rate cut from the Fed.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The US 10yr-2yr yield curve “uninverted” as it headed back above 0% for the first time since early July 2022. Stable economic data coupled with a 50bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve gave investors confidence over the future of both short and medium term rates in the US.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCZLGLZ5YTB5ATPLSTO4ZHR4THQQ?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Chart of the Week 23 09 2024&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxrY&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCZLGLZ5YTB5ATPLSTO4ZHR4THQQ&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;chart of week.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Equities &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MC7P4QOQYY2JGGXBRZFNMYPAZNNA?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Equities Chart 23 09 2024&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxrd&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MC7P4QOQYY2JGGXBRZFNMYPAZNNA&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;equities.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Bonds&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCN36VD2F2N5EW3OUEOMDZ4LIVMI?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Bonds Chart 23 09 2024&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxri&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCN36VD2F2N5EW3OUEOMDZ4LIVMI&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;bonds.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 23rd September 2024

&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-September-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read September&#39;s Global Macro Outlook in full.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this month’s Unio Global Macro Council, discussion shifted from global topics to focus on Ireland&#39;s domestic developments ahead of the budget on October 1st and a likely general election in the coming months.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland&#39;s economy is stronger than other European economies however, capacity constraints (housing, infrastructure) could slow growth. Political discourse in Ireland differs from other European countries, with less focus on security and defence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland benefits from foreign direct investment, particularly from US tech firms, but risks are posed by potential US-EU trade tensions. Focus should be on domestic reforms, reducing business costs, and supporting tech start-ups to ensure future economic resilience.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read more in this month&#39;s Outlook.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Time for Small Tech

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One of the attractions of elections is that they throw up new ideas and policy proposals – and it is not unkind to say that one increasingly gets the impression of politicians throwing suggestions at the ‘policy wall’ to see what sticks. Aggressive tariffs on China and taxes on unrealised capital gains are two examples from the US.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One idea that Democrats and Republicans share is the proposed establishment of a sovereign wealth fund in the US. In the case of Donald Trump, his aim is to fund it with tariff revenues, whilst the Democrats conceive a sovereign wealth fund that might take stakes in firms in strategic industries, which is a very French idea (recalling the ‘strategic yoghurt policy’ of 2005). The flaw in this particular idea, is that there is in fact no money to capitalise such a fund.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In stark contrast, I recall the last time Washington pondered a sovereign wealth fund was at the end of the Clinton presidency, when Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin had in a financial ‘end of history’ moment, engineered a fiscal surplus (government earning more than it is spending). At the time, the sense was that surpluses would feed a ‘social security’ sovereign wealth fund, which would allow Americans to enjoy a prosperous retirement.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What is striking is that if you look at the history of America’s financial health, the Rubin/Clinton surplus is an anomalous blip. Since then, the US has registered nearly a quarter of a century of deficits, which irregardless of the level of growth of the economy,&lt;a href=&quot;https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; seem to get bigger (relative to the economy) every year.&lt;/a&gt; These burgeoning deficits are starting to take their toll on the US (and I should mention many other large developed economies – Britain and France prominently so), as its debt level rises beyond 100% to GDP (expected to hit 122% in 2035). It is a very odd situation. In textbook economics, large deficits tend to exist in times of war, recession or crisis. As such, if any of these occurs, there will be scant room for governments to help the economy (and rescue plans may become a trial of strength of central banks).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That’s not all. Readers will sense that I am writing more and more about indebtedness, and it is indeed becoming a preoccupation of mine. The idea of the ‘Age of Debt’ is that debt is becoming pervasive, and as a factor will weigh on geopolitics, the tenor of political debates and the shaping of the financial markets of the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context, once we get beyond the rise of election campaigns and into 2025, governments will have to jettison dreams of sovereign wealth funds and instead subject themselves to debt sustainability analysis. It is akin to a household giving up a dream of buying a second home as their bank manager demands that the mortgage and credit card balance are paid off first.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Debt sustainability analysis is one of those arcane activities in economics, and I can count at least three friends who can run their own debt sustainability models, which is not something I should readily admit. The essence of debt sustainability analysis is that the future debt load (and its precariousness) of a country are driven by a set of factors – the rate at which a government spends, the inflation adjusted interest rate it pays, growth and demographics. These factors are inter-related – borrowing that is deployed to productive investment can produce growth and thus reduce the risks associated with debt for instance. Today, the rapid acceleration in the indebtedness of many countries, low growth and ebbing demographics are some of the factors that make debt increasingly unsustainable.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If that was a reasonably technical explanation, the best parallel I can think of to communicate debt sustainability is climate sustainability – or at least both sets of analysis point to a world that is heating up, and where there is relatively little reaction to this. Debt and climate sustainability analyses are long-term processes, and my sense is that governments gladly ignore them, until they become immediately problematic.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That is beginning to happen. France’s bond spread (over Germany) is elevated, and British bond yields are close to 4%. Neither country can afford to increase debt levels. The same is true for Canada. In the US, next February will see the installation of the new Treasury Secretary, and he or she will have the difficult task of telling the next President that there is no money in the kitty.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As such, the establishment of sovereign wealth funds is a distant, fluffy dream for most governments. A violent lesson here is that Ireland had a sovereign wealth fund in the early 2000’s, but it was swallowed up in the consequences of the euro-zone financial crisis, and is only now being re-established.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For those sovereign wealth funds that exist – in Norway or Saudi Arabia – the next trade may not be to buy quoted equities and private equity, but to either buy the discounted debt of developed countries when they have their sustainability crisis, or to engage in private lending to them. When that happens, a new shift in geoeconomic power will be under way.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Sovereign Debt Funds

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 16th September, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/IVYhODn3Dzs?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;In summary:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It’s a very busy week on the macro front as some big central banks will be making interest rate calls. Up first is the Federal Reserve, who will make an interest rate decision on the 18th, the following day, the Bank of England will make an interest rate call. And finally, on the 20th, inflation data in Japan will be released along with a Bank of Japan interest rate call.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One earnings report to look out for this week is FedEx, which will release its Q1 2025 earnings on the 19th. The transportation and e-commerce business is classed as a ‘bellweather’ stock and is often used as a gauge the overall strength of the US economy. On the same day, British clothes retailer Next Plc will post their Q2 earnings whilst General Mills will post their results on the 18th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Chinese 10-year yield reached 2.07% over the last week, its lowest level in history, as the economy continues to stumble. There is an expectation that the Chinese government will have to introduce further stimulus measures in an effort to spark growth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCIWCDZOP3TBBQLIX7Y6CIASM4FQ?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxqV&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCIWCDZOP3TBBQLIX7Y6CIASM4FQ&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;chart of week.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Equities Chart&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MC57RY5TDTZZADJLJ76WJINKJNRU?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxqa&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MC57RY5TDTZZADJLJ76WJINKJNRU&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;equities.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Bonds Charts&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCSUCD4BVSQBHZLN7PR2KEZ2RZJY?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxqf&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCSUCD4BVSQBHZLN7PR2KEZ2RZJY&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;bonds.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 16th September 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Next week the Federal Reserve will very likely cut interest rates, for the first time since the COVID related rate cutting cycle. Recall of course that at the end of this speedy sets of cuts, most of the leading central banks had declared inflation to be ‘transitory’. The Fed cut will come on the back of a series of rate cuts from ‘elder’ central banks – the Bank of England, Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank, as well as the European Central Bank from whom we had another rate cut last week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The anticipated move by the Federal Reserve is instructive in several respects. Market based interest rates are lower than Fed rates and many investors expect (or rather crave) the Fed to make a 50 basis point cut, as opposed to a ‘standard’ one of 25 basis points. This is yet another sign of monetary addiction – the result of the conditioning of investors to financial liquidity. In mid-August, following a dip in the stock market, I wrote that the idea of the ‘Fed put’ – the notion that the Fed would react to a fall in asset prices by cutting rates – is very much alive in markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The market dip led several seasoned and apparently credible investors to call for an emergency cut in rates. However, the Fed has only ever taken such dramatic action in the thick of deep crises (LTCM/Russian economic collapse, the &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/dot.com__;!!O22_8FOSssc!n93_x9tgNzXgcJj32jmBktfQDQ32cMgOg6eNjoW6aAzCD4zetXuDqHaCIZ3BFl-x88ULD8Qa2w93iMjO_mlwNyNs$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;dot.com&lt;/a&gt; collapse, 9/11, the global financial crisis and the COVID crisis). Similarly, it has not begun a rate cutting cycle with a 50 basis point cut, outside of financial crises. There is no financial crisis today (though plenty of mounting financial risks such as very high debt levels), but a crisis of expectations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That crisis of expectations is at play as investors position for the Fed meeting next week. In my experience, the Fed is, in normal economic conditions, a cautious and slow-moving beast, and it would be untypical for them to begin a rate cutting phase with an outsized rate cut. To do so would suggest that they are in a hurry to correct a mistake of their own making.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;To that extent, investor behaviour that demands a 50-basis point cut, recalls the quip from Paul Samuelson, the first winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, that the market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Set against this apparent concern by investors (do they fear a recession or desire lower rates?) is a debate around a relatively new economic rule of thumb called the Sahm Rule, named after research by economist Claudia Sahm at the Federal Reserve. Her rule states that when the medium-term unemployment rate rises an impending recession is signalled (the three month average of unemployment needs to rise by 50 basis points). It is a surprisingly simple rule that appears to have prefigured eleven US downturns going back to 1953. Sahm’s aim in establishing a reliable rule was that stimulus checks can be sent out at the outset of recessions (as opposed to waiting for GDP data to indicate a recession).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I am tempted to trump the Sahm Rule with two observations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is Goodhart’s Law, named after Bank of England and LSE economist Charles Goodhart which states that ‘when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure’, or more colloquially that fame kills a good model.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;More seriously, most of the last ten business cycles were conventional ones, whereas this business cycle bears the scars of reversing demographics, the lingering effects of COVID fiscal policy and labour market distortions (work from home) not to mention the contortions of strategic industrial policy (i.e. the CHIP’s Act, Inflation Reduction Act) and the political ramifications of high inflation and immigration. It is anything but a typical business cycle, and very hard to read.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Somewhat unusually at this stage in the cycle government finances are weak (from France to the US) whilst the large corporates of the Western world are in a generally healthy financial state. Of the major economies, China poses the greatest risk to the downside in the near-term.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;With different components of the US economy moving in different directions, my expectation is for a slowdown than a deeper recession (this may eventually come at the end of 2025 if inflation rises again). Equally, I expect the Fed to make a series of rate cuts rather than deep cutting cycle. If that view is correct, the interest rates market will be very volatile, as investors periodically over react to data points and price in ‘booms’ and busts’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Expect a market tantrum next week with investors complaining that the Fed is behind the curve. Samuelson would tell us that the curve has got it wrong.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Samuelson vs. Sahm

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 9th September, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/yy8M0pyam9k?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;In Summary&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;The market’s focus this week will be on Europe, as the ECB will make an interest rate call on the 12th. Earlier this summer President Lagarde indicated that rate cuts were on the table for the September meeting and with August’s headline inflation rate (2.2%) hitting its lowest level since July 2021, the market is pricing in a 25bps cut from the current rate of 4.25% and there looks to be further flexibility for the ECB to continue cutting.&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;In the US, headline and core inflation data will be published on the 11th. The current rate stands at 2.9% and 3.2% respectively. A weaker print could increase the likelihood of a larger rate cut at the end of the month. Its also worth noting Chinese inflation data was issued today, with the headline rate coming in at 0.6% up from 0.5% in July.&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;There are still some large software companies left to publish their earnings this week. Two of the big beneficiaries of AI demand, Oracle (1Q25) and Adobe (3Q24) will report today and on the 12th respectively.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Normally once the Fed begins a rate cutting cycle, the 10-year yield falls quickly in response. As the September Fed meeting approaches, the question arises ‘will the 10 year yield behave in the same way as it has historically when rates are cut?’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCMGQYUJZ55VF7BNPHVUFNDGTWA4?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxpJ&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCMGQYUJZ55VF7BNPHVUFNDGTWA4&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Chart of Week.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Equities Chart&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCZGUN6DQAWFAWBGC3FGFS4BVMUM?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxpO&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCZGUN6DQAWFAWBGC3FGFS4BVMUM&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Equities.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Bonds Charts&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCHPPKOIV4KZBXPPODFGP3KQSOGM?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxpT&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCHPPKOIV4KZBXPPODFGP3KQSOGM&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Bonds.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span&gt;﻿&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 9th September 2024

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Join our next webinar&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Learn how you can optimise your retirement savings&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the run up to the Budget on October 1st, there is a significant opportunity to optimise your retirement savings in the most tax efficient way. Directors and other senior employees can currently benefit from an increased scope for company pension contributions when they’re paid into a PRSA.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Agenda&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Join to hear our expert panel explain this and more pensions changes on the horizon:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. The Immediate Opportunity: How flexible contributions to a PRSA may significantly enhance the amount you and your company can pay into your pension.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2. Changes on the horizon: How PRSA funding rules could be revised in the upcoming Budget.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It’s important that you consider your options. We want to make sure that your pension is structured in the best way possible to fund your retirement.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Speakers&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Aine McGroarty, Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Dixon, Head of Independent Wealth, and Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning at Unio Wealth Management.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Joining Instructions&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Date: Tuesday, 10th September, 2024&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Time: 11:00 to 11:30am&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/240792388643140702&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Register here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we want you to plan for the retirement you deserve. Pensions and their rules and regulation is an ever-changing world. To ensure that you can make the most of your wealth, and to explore the best solutions for your circumstances, talk to your Unio adviser who can help you navigate pension changes and so much more, or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;get in touch here&lt;/a&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

The Irish Pensions Landscape

&lt;p&gt;In 2018, Pavel Durov the founder of messaging app Telegram, dined with Emmanuel Macron, and for his troubles was later awarded a French passport. Durov should have known that as a French citizen, the state will get you at some stage in your life, and so last week he was arrested in France. Durov’s story is layered with intrigue, and it is not immediately obvious what strategy is being played out here.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, it is one of a growing number of tales that illustrate what will be one of the great trends of the 21st century, the tension between the power generated by technology and its effect on democracy. Other examples are the disputes between Elon Musk and diverse governments (the UK and Brazil), the difficult passage of the Californian AI Bill, and the apparent Department of Justice antitrust probe into Nvidia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equally, technology weighs on many public policy debates now – such as the access to mobile phones in schools, the demands that data centres place on electricity grids and the TikTok-ification of politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Technology is a source of wealth, economic growth and power. The historic outperformance of large US technology firms on the stock market is a manifestation of the first effect, while the ways in which governments, in what could politely be termed less than democratic governments, crave the means by which they can use technology (notably social media) to marshall their citizens is worrying. The countries of the MENA region post the Arab Spring is an example, and of course China is the benchmark here. Democracies at least, have better instincts, and most of them are trying to curb the negative side-effects of the power of technology firms and entrepreneurs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, many of them find the burden of oversight frustrating.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the striking debates I participated in over the summer was the Rencontres Economiques, where across a range of European policy makers there was great frustration at the dictum ‘America innovates, China replicates and Europe regulates’. In particular, there is frustration in Europe at the relatively shallow pools of capital available to scale up technology firms, but it must be said few politicians are willing to do much to help.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Europeans are equally frustrated with the view that their competence is in regulation, rather than innovation, but I am beginning to wonder if Europe has in fact gotten out in front, notably so with its EU AI Act.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The EU AI Act is only just coming into operation, and it has its flaws, but its strength is that it is based on a broad, clear framework. In contrast, what is starting to become clear in the US is that in the absence of legislation (Senator Chuck Schumer’s AI regulatory initiative is seen as a ‘roadmap’) the effort to curb the power of large social media and AI firms on society will be piece-meal. I suspect for instance there will be a lot more civil and corporate legal cases to establish the ownership of data-sets and the access to them by AI engines, as is the case between the New York Times and OpenAI.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, the lack of a regulatory framework to steer the development of AI and social media risks tension between different arms of the state. In the US the Department of Justice is taking aim at a range of social media sites that are suspected of coming under Russian influence, and the antitrust investigation into Nvidia risks cutting across the Biden administration’s security driven economic policy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many of these contradictions and challenges are laid out in an excellent, new book entitled ‘The Tech Coup’ by Marietje Schaake, that whilst written in the US, has a decidedly European tone (the author was an MEP). She argues for a more precautionary approach to the mass roll out of new technologies, with specific limits on technologies like spyware, facial recognition systems and crypto-currencies, and much greater transparency on the uses and finance of AI. These are sensible proposals, but likely the very opposite of what Donald Trump might instigate as a set of policies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thus, the tension between democracy and the power of technology will intensify – driven by at least two factors. The first is the geostrategic importance of technology – in particular data consuming and content producing technologies (which explains why the US has been so keen to limit the power of China’s TikTok).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second, which many legal frameworks have great difficulty in encompassing, is the arrival of the ‘tech bro’, wealthy individuals, who consider themselves above the law, and in some cases, beyond common decency. While some politicians seem dazzled by these ‘bros’, democratic states should not bend to their wills, and as a rule democratic states tend to outlast tycoons.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Technology Vs. Democracy

&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCSUXQ4CBD5VFOLHJVPSTMIUB2XQ?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio ICRA Overall Winner John Murphy, Howth Yacht Club&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqSa&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCSUXQ4CBD5VFOLHJVPSTMIUB2XQ&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Unio ICRA Overall Winner John Murphy, Howth Yacht Club .JPG&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio ICRA National Championship 2024 Overall Winner John Murphy of Outrajeous and ICRA Commodore Denis Byrne (right) at the Royal Irish Yacht Club, Dun Laoghaire.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It was fair winds and sunshine for the Irish Cruiser Racing (ICRA) National Championships 2024&amp;nbsp;on the last weekend in August in the elegant surrounding of the Royal Irish Yacht Club.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It was a first for Unio Wealth Management to sponsor the ICRAs and we are delighted to be associated with such an esteemed date in the Irish sailing calendar, a true celebration of excellence, teamwork and adaptability, all principles Unio stands by - charting a safe course for our clients, albeit from the comfort of dry land.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Well done to the 60 yachts and over 500 crew who competed, and congratulations to&lt;strong&gt; John Murphy and crew of the J/109 Outrajeous (Howth YC)&lt;/strong&gt; who won the 2024 Unio ICRA Nationals Overall Champion title.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thank you to ICRA, the officers and members of the Royal Irish Yacht Club and Race Director Mark McGibney for making the weekend such a success.&amp;nbsp;A perfect end to the ICRA racing season.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled, full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCD4ZXF5522JDMXIF7IR7K7GDK4E?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio ICRA Overall Winner John Murphy and crew, Howth Yacht Club&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqSc&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCD4ZXF5522JDMXIF7IR7K7GDK4E&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Unio ICRA Overall Winner John Murphy and crew, Howth Yacht Club .JPG&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;John Murphy, helmsman Neil Spain and crew of the J/109 Outrajeous (Howth YC) celebrate their win.&lt;/p&gt;

Unio ICRA National Championships 2024

&lt;p&gt;In today’s hectic world there is an ever-growing list of stressors that weigh on our minds. When asked to identify sources of stress, money emerges as a recurring theme. As a personal financial adviser, I often find myself acting as a coach and mentor, helping clients make informed decisions and keeping them on the path to financial wellbeing.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Renowned satirist Jonathan Swift once famously said, “A wise person should have money in their head, but not in their heart.” By effectively managing our money, we gain control over our finances, creating opportunities for personal and professional growth, and helping us attain that all important peace of mind.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Working with the right adviser can help coordinate all aspects of your financial life so you can focus on what is most important to you and making the right choices in life for you and your family. It is an ongoing relationship built on trust and, when done correctly, your adviser will become an integral part of your life, your counsel for financial and more importantly life decisions. You can take comfort knowing that they will have the time, attention, and expertise to address every aspect of your finances while you focus on living.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Peace of Mind&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A recent study by the Financial Planning Standards Board (FPSB) (1) revealed that clients who work with a Certified Financial Planner experience a significantly higher quality of life. These clients report increased confidence and satisfaction regarding their financial situations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Furthermore, the study identified “reducing financial worries and stress” as one of the top three benefits that financial planners provide to their clients. This is especially significant in Ireland, which has a rich tapestry of culture, values, and behaviours that shape how we approach wealth and financial management.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What Keeps You up at Night?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Clients often remark that they appreciate the clarity and focus they get from a financial planning meeting. By looking at the bigger picture, we move the conversation away from the spread sheet and facilitate those deeper conversations about a client’s concerns and aspirations. What’s on your mind? What do you want to achieve in life and how can we help you get there?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Typically, your financial plan should establish important long term personal financial goals and shorter-term objectives. A long-term goal might be starting to save for your child’s future or achieving a particular income level in retirement. A typical shorter-term objective may be to reduce debt or increase pension savings. Your plan sets out your goals and describes a clear ‘route map’ of what you need to do to achieve them. Using financial modelling software, we build a picture of what your financial future might look like and work through accumulation strategies or simply give you the peace of mind that you are on track.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Additionally, your financial plan might include other practical steps such as ensuring you have an up-to date will in place or an enduring power of attorney.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your financial legacy and efficiently passing on wealth might also be an important consideration and ensuring that you have the right structures in place to do so tax efficiently may be a priority for you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Behavioural Aspect of Wealth Management&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many individuals carry beliefs about money that can hinder their financial success. For some clients, cultural attitudes towards wealth may instil feelings of guilt or fear of judgment. Partnering with our clients and coaching them on these limiting beliefs, enables them to adopt a more empowering mindset towards wealth accumulation and management.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, in Ireland there is a cultural reticence for people to invest beyond traditional bank deposits and that can hold us back as a country. This can often result in missed opportunities for growth, leading to financial uncertainty in the long run.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In contrast, a cohesive financial plan including an investment plan tailored to your goals can offer potential for higher returns, helping you build wealth more effectively. Knowing that your finances are actively working towards your future can reduce financial stress, contributing to greater peace of mind.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio advisers are also here to help clients navigate the stress and anxiety that sometimes accompanies financial decisions. Understanding what drives emotional reactions can lead to more rational and well-thought-out investment choices.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Top 5 Benefits of Working with a Financial Planner&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;(1)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. Improved Financial Wellbeing and Peace of Mind: Knowing your finances are in order allows you to sleep soundly, free from the anxieties of unexpected financial troubles.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2. Simplified Financial Matters: Financial planners help demystify complex financial concepts, making it easier for clients to understand and manage their finances.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;3. Enhanced Confidence in Financial Decisions: With expert guidance, clients can make informed decisions, reducing the stress and uncertainty often associated with managing money.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;4. Increased Financial Freedom and Control: Effective financial planning provides clients with a sense of control over their financial future, leading to a more empowered and relaxed lifestyle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;5. Goal Setting and Achievement: Financial planners help clients establish and reach their personal and financial goals, contributing to overall life satisfaction and happiness.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we take a holistic view. Beyond financial advice, we consider and understand your life goals, ensuring that our advice and your financial plan align with your broader life aspirations. If you want to learn more, speak with a Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch with us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Rowena Kenny is a Qualified Financial Adviser, Chartered Accountant and Certified Life Coach with a background in Tax, Law, Business, Nursing and Fashion Design. Currently working in Unio Wealth Management, Rowena advises High Net Worth clients on savings and investments, life assurance, pensions, retirement planning and estate planning in line with client life goals and aspirations.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] FPSB Value Of Financial Planning Global Consumer Research 2023&lt;/p&gt;

When it comes to your finances, achieving peace of mind might be easier than you think.

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 02 September, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/pESJMqsi_d0?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;In Summary&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;Last week’s market movement was heavily influenced by the quarterly report of&amp;nbsp;Nvidia, which grew revenue 122% QoQ but still missed some extremely high expectations set by Wall Street analysts. This week, another big beneficiary of the AI boom, Broadcom, will post its Q3 earnings on the 5th. The semiconductor and software product business has seen its stock price rise an impressive 75.8% over the last year and 44.5% YTD.&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;On the macro side, the big news will come at the end of the week, when US unemployment and non-farm payroll data is released. Payroll growth has averaged 170k/month over the last quarter but the unemployment rate has still risen by 0.5% since the start of the year with the current unemployment rate standing at 4.3%.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;Prior to that, US manufacturing and services&amp;nbsp;PMI data will be published on the 3rd and 5th respectively. The manufacturing index currently stands at 46.8 and is expected to rise to 47.8 whilst the services PMI is expected to rise to 51.5. On the 4th, the Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.25%.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;After recent market volatility and as we head into the September, which is historically the worst performing month for equities (known as the “September effect”), investors might be looking more closely at safe haven assets like gold. However, with a growing expectation of falling US interest rates, it has already seen a strong rally relative to USD over the last year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCDRMDEMGN35DULGB6RMKMUUKNQU?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqRc&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCDRMDEMGN35DULGB6RMKMUUKNQU&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Chart of the Week 02 09 2024&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;chart of week.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Equities Chart &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCWJF6F7DED5D5ZKANFYNYNSAXCU?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqRe&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Equities Chart 02 09 2024&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCWJF6F7DED5D5ZKANFYNYNSAXCU&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;equities.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Bonds Charts &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCSY7RGQRWDFC5NHYRWK25TNXBYM?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqRh&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Bonds Chart 02 09 2024&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCSY7RGQRWDFC5NHYRWK25TNXBYM&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;bonds.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 2nd September 2024

&lt;p&gt;Have you ever thought about what your retirement will look like? Do you aspire to own a holiday home or the sports car you always dreamed of? If you could, would you financially support your children while they navigate the path to their chosen career?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The costs attached to these hopes and ambitions are personal financial goals that you should be setting as part of your financial plan. A bit like a route map, a financial plan guides you on your journey. There is a destination you want to get to and a few different paths you might have to think about along the way.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning at Unio, ,explains how working with a financial planning professional will help you focus on what is important to you, define your goals, and enables your financial planner to develop tailored advice, a plan to guide you on your journey and help track your progress.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Structuring a Financial Plan&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A comprehensive financial plan covers various aspects of your financial life, such a budgeting, saving, investments, insurance, tax strategies, retirement planning and estate planning.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Typically, your financial plan should establish important long term personal financial goals and shorter-term objectives. For example, it may include funding a child&#39;s education or achieving a particular income level in retirement goal – a long-term goal. The associated shorter-term objective may be to increase pension saving – it is what you need to do to make the goal a reality.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Additionally, your financial plan might include other practical steps such as ensuring you have an up-to date will in place or an enduring power of attorney. Your financial legacy and efficiently passing on wealth might also be an important consideration and ensuring that you have the right structures in place to do so tax efficiently may be another priority for you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your plan sets out your goals and details a clear ‘route map’ of what you need to do to achieve them.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;A financial plan is a great way of bringing order to your life and can empower you to make decisions around your finances.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1. Do I have enough?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once you put time into working through what is important to you and you have defined your financial goals, your financial planning professional will start to look at your current position. They consider your cashflow (what comes in and goes out each month) and your existing assets and any debts (such as mortgages). Using financial modelling software, they can help build a picture of what your financial future might look like and work through strategies to make the most of what you can build or simply give you the peace of mind that you are on track.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2. What I have I want to maintain and grow&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You work hard to build your wealth, and it is important to treat what you have with care. Underpinning a financial plan is the right investment strategy. This must be aligned with your need to access your money at various stages throughout your plan along with your own appetite for risk. Some of your money will need to be easily accessible for contingency planning as a ‘rainy day fund’ or shorter term known expenses. In the longer term, for example, for retirement planning, you may be able to consider higher risk investment strategies that give potential for greater returns while knowing over the long term you can withstand exposure to more volatile investment asset classes. Your investment strategy needs to work with your plan and enable you to protect and grow what you have so your money is there when you need it.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;3. Can I be more tax-efficient?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A financial planning professional can introduce strategies aimed at ensuring assets are tax efficiently built and maintained. Crucially they can also assist in maximising your tax efficiency at the point of retirement. It is also key to consider your legacy, including surplus personal or business assets and have strategies employed to pass assets tax-efficiently to your family at the right time.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;4. It’s not a one-off exercise.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This plan is your financial blueprint for life, it is a living thing, and we see its creation and ongoing assessment as a significant responsibility. Expert guidance will help steer you in the right direction. Life can throw curve balls and revisiting and updating your plan helps you to stay focused and allows you to adjust things if you hit bumps along the road. You can measure how far you have come on your journey and check you are still on track to achieve your goals.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;5. Am I too late to make a Financial Plan?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Like most things in life, the earlier you start, the better the outcome. While it is never too late, the sooner you engage with a financial planner the greater the benefit.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would like to find out more about how you can take control of your financial future, reach out to your Unio adviser or get in touch here.&lt;/p&gt;

Taking control of your financial future

&lt;p&gt;Have you ever wondered how much fixed income, equity or even private equity you should hold in your portfolio?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this week’s note, I want to give you a sense of the engineering behind one of the first ports of call for our clients – fitting them with the right portfolio is like getting the right set of clothes or medicine. Gauging a client’s appetite for risk and then building a portfolio around it is one of the first things we do, but it is also a topic that dominates the investment industry, and very different types of investor – from family offices to individuals to sovereign wealth funds – will have different points of view on what is the best mix of assets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One example, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/treasure-chest&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;which we have written about recently&lt;/a&gt; are endowments, as exemplified by the Yale model pioneered by David Swensen. Here, the top US university endowments – the likes of Yale, Harvard and Princeton – have since the 1980’s held up to a third of their portfolio assets in private assets such as private equity, and the performance of their approach has become famous.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A more typical finance-led approach to determining the composition of any portfolio is portfolio optimization – this may sound dreadfully boring and dry to our readers, and it is, but it is a process that is as important financially as the annual medical check-up is from a healthcare point of view.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The idea of portfolio optimization is to first gauge an investor’s tolerance for risk (i.e. what degree of asset price fluctuation they are prepared for, and the headline levels of expected return and risk they have in mind). Granted this, the optimization process, will produce a combination of assets that together, will deliver the appropriate level of return in the long run, given risk appetite.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is where it gets complicated.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, in a portfolio, it is important to have a mix of assets that are well diversified – that is, they don’t move the same way given underlying economic conditions. In most cases, the relationship between asset classes can be observed over time, and even modelled for different segments of the business cycle. For example, it is intuitive that equities would rise in a business cycle recovery, whereas government bonds might be flat to weaker in terms of performance…but those bonds are worth having as a safe haven in times of market and economic stress.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second, difficult element is trying to get a handle on how different assets might perform in the future. As a benchmark, historical returns can be helpful, and for those readers who are interested there are some decent databases of long run stock and bond returns, from the likes of &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/podcast/ripple-effect/stocks-for-the-long-run-jeremy-siegel/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gRutQq20lSNlusY6eDIbHyMQz3iJK6UHIIgq1JdkmZ3h3UsVHWXxL4sztD8VIMUMD_2GukWWVDBdJ72Cn5SgEcdK$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Jeremy Siegel at the University of Pennsylvania&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/www.econ.yale.edu/*shiller/data.htm__;fg!!O22_8FOSssc!gRutQq20lSNlusY6eDIbHyMQz3iJK6UHIIgq1JdkmZ3h3UsVHWXxL4sztD8VIMUMD_2GukWWVDBdJ72Cn7xLqyP2$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller&lt;/a&gt;. Perhaps the most comprehensive is the work of Professors Elroy Dimson and Paul Marsh whose &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/in-focus/2024/global-investment-returns-yearbook.html__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gRutQq20lSNlusY6eDIbHyMQz3iJK6UHIIgq1JdkmZ3h3UsVHWXxL4sztD8VIMUMD_2GukWWVDBdJ72Cn7nEipNe$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Investment Returns Yearbook publication&lt;/a&gt; is widely followed. They extensively research the performance of different asset classes over time and over 120 years find that the average real return on equities (USA) is just over 5%.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that regard, historic and periodic analysis of returns offers strategists a good benchmark and are always helpful when setting investor expectations for future returns.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Forecasting future returns involves more work and can be a lengthy process – as it requires long-term forecasts (often for different growth scenarios) for GDP, inflation, profit growth and interest rates to name a few variables. A good number of the large investment institutions now undertake this process – which in the industry is called ‘Capital Market Assumptions’. Much of their research material is available publicly and we have examined the CMAs of numerous different institutions including behemoths like Blackrock and &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/am.jpmorgan.com/ch/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/portfolio-insights/ltcma/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gRutQq20lSNlusY6eDIbHyMQz3iJK6UHIIgq1JdkmZ3h3UsVHWXxL4sztD8VIMUMD_2GukWWVDBdJ72Cn0DDDv1T$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;JP Morgan&lt;/a&gt; in order to highlight some of the research available in the industry.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The next step for portfolio strategists is to take this spectrum of expected returns (and risk) and blend them together to produce a portfolio that gives specific investors the best return for a given amount of risk.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we also have a lengthy, rigorous process to construct the parameters of our portfolios.&amp;nbsp;Utilising the breath of data available we model the relationships between asset classes which helps us define the Unio view of the investment world, in turn contributing to optimal portfolio design for our clients.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In determining a client’s long-term investment strategy, we seek to attain a balance between risk and reward in targeting a client’s financial goals given their risk appetite and investment time horizon. A key component of investment strategy design is identifying appropriate asset classes and these include equities, bonds, cash and alternatives. Within these asset categories we identify an optimal target asset allocation utilising the breath of the investment universe and supported by our extensive modelling capabilities, to create a diversified client portfolio.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Into the Future

&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-August-2024_Turns-Shifts-and-Cuts.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read August&#39;s Global Macro Outlook in full.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This month’s Unio Global Macro Council meeting was devoted to an analysis of the performance of investment styles at turning points in the economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It seems that a &#39;new regime’ is in place for interest rates. We discussed the change in behaviour of central banks from a tightening bias to a loosening one. In Europe, we also expect the ECB to continue cutting rates, and this has the potential to kickstart lending. Often turns in interest rates are also accompanied by shifts in the performance of inter-related asset classes, or investment styles. Read more in this month&#39;s report.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We were fortunate to be joined by guest speakers&amp;nbsp;Edward Rackham&lt;strong&gt;, &lt;/strong&gt;Co-Chief Investment Officer at Los Angeles Capital, Laszlo Tisler, Vice President, Portfolio Research at BlackRock, Stefan Poechhacker, Vice President at BlackRock and, Natasha Sarkaria, Investment Strategist, BlackRock. Thank you for your insights and expertise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Turns, Shifts and Cuts

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 26th August, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch our investment brief for the week ahead:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/z6SFdaiHynE?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week is dominated by inflation data which includes releases from Australia, Germany, and the Eurozone on the 28th, 29th and 30th respectively. The Eurozone flash estimate for core inflation is forecasted to be 2.8% for August, compared to 5.3% this time last year. Any signs of a persistence in pricing pressures could limit the ECB’s ability to deliver further rate cuts this year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the US, the focus will be on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, with July’s data released on the 30th. The day before the second estimate of GDP data for Q2 2024 will be released with the first estimate indicating the economic growth had accelerated to an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, compared to 1.4% of first quarter.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Earnings season is winding down, however, a few high-profile companies are still scheduled to report their quarterly results this week. Nvidia, releasing on the 28th of August will be the main highlight, with investors looking to the chipmaker for an indication of the overall health of the AI boom. It will also be worth looking out for the performance of Salesforce and CrowdStrike (following the recent IT outage caused by one of their software updates) who both post results on the 28th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We will shortly be entering into the month of September, which from a stock market perspective has historically been the worst performing month of the year. This is often referred to as the September Effect and has been attributed to investors’ seasonal behavioural bias.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCNHA5MF7SPRGW3O726SYGUYNZAE?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqQU&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Chart of the Week 26th August, 2024&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCNHA5MF7SPRGW3O726SYGUYNZAE&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Chart of the Week 26th Aug.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Equities Chart&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCJYYFK7KYRNATHMRAAJHDGPQ73Q?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqQW&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Equities Chart 26th August 2024.&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCJYYFK7KYRNATHMRAAJHDGPQ73Q&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Equities 26th Aug.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Bonds Chart&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCFGPPZ5O7GVDI3D72SXHAOGGMDY?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqQY&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Fixed Income Chart 26th August, 2024&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCFGPPZ5O7GVDI3D72SXHAOGGMDY&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Fixed Income Chart 26th Aug.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View 26th August, 2024

&lt;p&gt;Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning at Unio Wealth Management, explains how funding for your pension via a PRSA could transform your retirement planning.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When Personal Retirement Savings Accounts (PRSAs) first arrived on the scene in 2002, they were intended to encourage pension savings and ensure adequate pension provision – mainly targeting the self-employed and those not covered by an occupational pension scheme.&amp;nbsp;They were designed to be cheap, portable pension products.&amp;nbsp;Over time, they have become the ‘go-to’ solution for individuals looking for creative ways to fund their pension and structure and create a retirement income that matches their lifestyle.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Over the last couple of years, PRSAs have seen several changes, most crucially, the removal of Benefit in Kind (BIK) on employer contributions, making them a great option for anyone targeting the most tax efficient retirement pot.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The PRSA has suddenly become the devilishly handsome yet intriguing relative at that family reunion!&amp;nbsp;PRSAs have been simplified, made more accessible and are fast becoming an indispensable component of a well-rounded retirement strategy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What is a PRSA?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A PRSA is a type of long-term personal pension plan. It is like an investment account that is designed to let you save for retirement in a flexible, tax efficient way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A PRSA is nice and simple with no onerous training or reporting requirements.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is an individual pension arrangement, not an occupational pension, though an employer can contribute to it.&amp;nbsp;There are no requirements under the IORPS II directive which, introduced common standards and enhanced governance for all company pension schemes.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;And a PRSA is not subject to the same funding rules as a traditional occupational pension scheme which limits the contributions to those which are calculated to provide a maximum retirement benefit of 2/3rds of final salary.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Put simply, those who may have been constrained by outdated pension rules, are now able to save more extensively for their retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What are the benefits?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Business owners and directors can now use PRSAs for significantly enhanced employer contributions into their pension funds.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Additionally, businesses that were slow to put pension arrangements in place for their key employees - due to complex trustee issues - can now do so without having a trust in place and without the additional reporting requirements that go with it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Where once a PRSA was only attractive to those with modest earnings, the removal of BIK on employer contributions has led to funding possibilities far exceeding those achievable via other pension types.&amp;nbsp;This presents the opportunity to get more money into your pension faster.&amp;nbsp;For cash rich businesses, this is just too good an opportunity to miss!&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Is the PRSA becoming the pension product of choice?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;‘The National Pensions Framework’ published in March 2010 set out the Governments plans for reform of the Irish pension system.&amp;nbsp;This included further initiatives aimed at increasing pension coverage – the introduction of an Auto-Enrolment system - a workplace pension savings scheme which is co-funded by employers and the State.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While all the changes around simplification, inclusion, and tighter standards and governance are welcomed, navigating the pension landscape continues to be challenging.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;The PRSA however is the exception, remaining a flexible, easy to understand, easy to access pension product.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Who can benefit?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Family business owners,&lt;/strong&gt; who might take lower salaries.&amp;nbsp;Traditionally, having a low salary meant having lower possible pension contributions.&amp;nbsp;Now, a business can contribute significantly to the individual’s pension fund without the need for the individual to draw a higher taxable salary.&amp;nbsp;This also opens significant estate planning opportunities in assisting the passing of a business and its assets to the next generation.&amp;nbsp;PRSAs are a very beneficial tool as people plan for transition to retirement and exit from their business.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Directors and other key employees in businesses. &lt;/strong&gt;The complexity of occupational pensions has been off-putting to small business owners when considering funding a pension as part of their employee’s remuneration package.&amp;nbsp;PRSAs can be put in place for these key employees, and the business can contribute to their pensions with no BIK implications or trustee issues.&amp;nbsp;There are of course alternative options, such as the recently developed Master Trust - a separate but equally interesting topic. The ability to put attractive pension benefits in place for key staff will always play an integral part of ensuring staff loyalty and coverage at the same time.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Those looking for a phased retirement.&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;We didn’t yet mention the complexities around how to access your retirement benefits.&amp;nbsp;People are living longer, more active lives with many looking to a phased entry to retirement, moving to part-time or consultancy work right into their 70s.&amp;nbsp;PRSAs can be your flexible friend and allow you to stagger accessing your retirement benefits over time, in conjunction with any continuing earned income, maximising your tax efficiency. This differs from other pension arrangements, which are restrictive and will insist that you access all your funds in one go, giving rise to additional earned income and an unwanted increase in Income Tax.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we want you to plan for the retirement you deserve.  Pensions and their rules and regulation is an ever-changing world.&amp;nbsp;To ensure that you can make the most of your wealth, and to explore the best solutions for your circumstances, talk to your Unio adviser who can help you navigate pension changes and so much more, or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch with us here.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Powering Up Your Retirement Planning with a PRSA

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The really important event of the last week was not the Democratic Party convention in Chicago that crowned Kamala Harris as the party’s candidate for president, but rather a dull offsite gathering for professional economists in remotest America.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The event, known as the Kansas Federal Reserve Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, or colloquially as ‘Jackson Hole’ is where leading central bankers and academic economists go to take the temperature of the macro world, and offer guidance as to what their next move might be.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;‘Jackson Hole’&amp;nbsp;has become one of the more important platforms for central bankers, due in little part to its proximity to decent fishing. Legend has it that up to the early 1980’s the Kansas Fed struggled to attract participants to its annual conference but came up with the idea of hosting it in Jackson Hole, because the prospect of excellent trout fishing might lure then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker (a keen fisherman) to the conference.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The strategy worked and Jackson Hole gathering is now internationally famous and attracts many professional central bankers, whose pronouncements are closely followed by markets. Never before has trout played such an important role in central banking.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The title of this year’s symposium is &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!ie0EiAQXRAGLImn33b9_j5sKnAt1dAUIrTUBcnmwpYJYQWD6JSi22RmbYL88G_fzBPW7Zf7Jm8EoslHQsbcRQgA3$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy&lt;/a&gt;, where the debate will, in its own very arcane way, focus on the plumbing of the financial system, and particularly on how ‘liquidity’ directed by central banks flows through the economy and impacts factors like industrial output, inflation and consumer behaviour. I will spare readers the detail on some of the research papers but wanted to make a few of my own observations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first relates to market expectations of monetary policy (interest rates). Two recent, related observations are worth mentioning. As a result of the August equity market sell-off, there were prominent calls for an emergency interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, and relatedly that the Fed should make a 50 basis point cut in rates at its forthcoming September meeting (from prominent commentators such as Prof Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton Business School).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The Fed has only ever taken such dramatic action in the thick of deep crises (LTCM/Russian economic collapse, the &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/dot.com__;!!O22_8FOSssc!ie0EiAQXRAGLImn33b9_j5sKnAt1dAUIrTUBcnmwpYJYQWD6JSi22RmbYL88G_fzBPW7Zf7Jm8EoslHQsdToUiuP$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;dot.com&lt;/a&gt; collapse, 9/11, the global financial crisis and the COVID crisis). There is no financial crisis today (though plenty of mounting financial risks such as very high debt levels), but a crisis of expectations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That is, the Fed and other large Western central banks have permitted investors to believe in the notion of a ‘Fed put’, or rather that central banks will rescue them if asset prices take a turn for the worst, and the calls for an emergency rate cut betray this. The existence of the notion of a ‘Fed put’ makes life a lot more difficult for central bankers – it encourages excess risk taking and leverage, unproductive investment and arguably entrenches the already sizeable wealth effect in the US economy. From the point of view of monetary purists, it distorts the options open to central bankers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second factor that I feel is relevant is the fiscal state of much of the Western economic world. Large deficits and near record high levels of debt make the transmission of monetary policy more difficult. High deficits – driven by spending – often go against the direction of monetary policy (there should really be better coordination between them), whilst high debt levels mean that pockets of credit risk and groups of zombie companies (their interest payments swamp profits).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that context, central banks have a difficult task. The gyrations in the yen are a sign of the complexity of the Japanese financial system (the central bank owns nearly two thirds of the bond market and a chunk of the stock market).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ahead of the formal Federal Reserve meeting in mid September, Fed Chair Powell has signalled the beginning of a series of rate cuts – we are not sure that this will be a ‘rate cutting cycle per se’, but a recalibration of rates to weaker growth and a riskier world. The bond market and the dollar have already reacted, and for our team at Unio, the real question is whether other economies can tolerate stronger domestic currencies – notably the euro-zone, and the yen in Japan.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Further reading: At May&#39;s meeting of the Unio Global Macro Council, we examined the case for dollar weakness, or correspondingly a pickup in the currency that one contributor, Harvinder Kalirai of Alpine Marco, referred to as the ‘anti-dollar’ i.e., the euro. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/time-for-the-anti-dollars&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Jackson Hole

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 19th August, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week&#39;s investment brief in full:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/K1K03hRA79Y?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- After a positive inflation print in the US last week, attention will now turn to the release of the Federal open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for July, on the 21st and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, starting on the 22nd.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Commentary coming from both will likely impact the market’s views on where US interest rates will go in the short term. With inflation now below 3.0% in the US, confidence is growing that a rate cut will come in September.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- EU core inflation data for July will be published on the 20th. As the ECB is now in its rate cutting cycle, policy officials will be keen to see growth in the economy but not at the expense of higher inflation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-On the earnings side, most of the recognisable names have posted their quarterly results. It’s worth keeping an eye out for Intuit’s earnings on the 22nd. The American software company announced last month that it would be cutting up to 10% of its global workforce due to the company’s recent investment in AI.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39;&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View  19th August, 2024

&lt;p&gt;Tax relief is available on personal contributions made to pension plans, making them an incredibly efficient way of reducing your taxable income. The amount of net relevant earnings/remuneration on which tax relief can be claimed is €115,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The maximum contribution rate (including both AVCs (Additional Voluntary Contributions) and ordinary personal contributions) on which you can receive income tax relief is determined by your age as follows:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCW67OBFM2QVBKRI34QDL2BFGE5Y?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Are you maximising your  pension contributions?&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqNj&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCW67OBFM2QVBKRI34QDL2BFGE5Y&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Are you maximising your  pension contributions table _web image.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These limits apply only to personal pension contributions. Employer pension contributions can be paid in addition to further enhance your overall retirement funding.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have you taken advantage of full tax relief for 2023?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you have not yet used the full income tax relief available for the 2023 tax year, you can do so by making an Additional Voluntary Contribution by 31st October 2024 (or 14th November 2024 if you make an online tax return) and claiming income tax relief directly from the Revenue Commissioners.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please note that this year Revenue have updated their requirements for making your tax submissions online and members are required to upload a copy of their pension certificate to move through the online application process. Please take this into account when sending AVCs near the online assessment deadline date (14th November 2024) and allow time for the pension certificate to be issued by your pension provider.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we want you to plan for the retirement you deserve. Pensions, along with their rules and regulations are ever-changing. To ensure that you can make the most of your wealth, and to explore the best solutions for your circumstances, talk to your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch&lt;/a&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Are you maximising your pension contributions?

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;An early morning run through Berlin last week (down Unter den Linden and through the Tiergarten) underlined to me its role as one of the few cities to have been at the centre of several, major shifts in political power – from the dominance of Bismark and the Prussian Empire, to Berlin’s role as a scientific and intellectual hub at the start of the 20th century, the two world wars, effective Russian occupation, and then the path from unification to its role as Europe’s economic powerhouse. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That the consensus view of Germany today is of ‘the sick man of Europe’ is also emblematic of a regime shift in globalization – Germany has neither the leadership, diplomacy, economic policy nor energy policy to succeed in a multipolar world. It is also an interesting vantage point to consider how some of the tectonic geopolitical shifts will evolve through the rest of 2024. Here are a few that preoccupy me. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;We have written a number of times in recent years on the way in which the breakdown of the unipolar globalized world order is forcing countries and companies to ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2022/02/26/taking-sides/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!mPmFbKscehV8qPDihB9tUHc40MvuLeCCOg0t6r2MwlH6igWmWAPHUyzJykJqyZd2_wqksY41nDlgVigmdWtizCWx$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;take sides’&lt;/a&gt;. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have made this trend more acute, as have growing supply chain centric protectionism. The messy evolution of the world order around three economic poles and value systems (China, EU, USA) adds complexity. Two recent events illustrate how different actors are becoming embroiled with each other.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;First, Elon Musk’s interview with Donald Trump, combined with his castigation of Keir Starmer polarise the international consequences of the US presidential election. For instance, the EU Commissioner with responsibility for the Digital Services Act (Thierry Breton) hastily took sides and leapt to caution Musk. If Trump wins, there is a convincing argument that ‘global oligarchy’ will align with him, to the great inconvenience of Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Second, the deepening of China’s support for both Russia (Chinese troops have recently been on exercise in Belarus) and Iran is puzzling and may increasingly put Xi Jinping at odds with colleagues. While this collaboration (of which North Korea is an important component part) is turning the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) into a coherent strategic grouping, it is taking China down a narrow path diplomatically, and one that will sap its credibility on the international stage.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The admirers of Xi may argue that China is creating not just a new world order, but a new model of government (autocratic state development). But, from a Western point of view, and I hope a neutral stance, China has fallen in with a ‘bad crowd’ whose foreign policy modus operandi seems to be to ‘make things worse’ (especially for democracies). In that regard, Xi may come under greater pressure from within his party – some of whom think he has taken a ‘wrong turn’, and many of whom are concerned with the performance of the economy. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If China is in danger of taking the ‘wrong side’, Germany is at risk because it is not taking sides.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Returning to Berlin and looking ahead to September, Olaf Scholz may also come under great pressure from colleagues. The ‘back to school’ season brings state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenberg. In these ‘eastern’ states, the ruling coalition has feeble support (mid-teens for the three coalition parties together), the conservative CDU does much better (close to 30%) with the now notorious AfD enjoying close to 30% in the three above states.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whilst these are regional elections, the prospect of a strong showing for the AfD (granted the highly controversial nature of its ‘eastern’ leaders) will embarrass Scholz. It might also further undermine the government’s energy policy (voters in these regions want the return of Russian gas and coal). It also brings into question the need for the government to spend more on structural social infrastructure.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Scholz coined the term ‘Zeitenwende’ (or turning point) to coin Germany’s strategic dilemma, but he has done little to steer it towards a better path. The consternation in Berlin over Ukraine’s use of German armour in Russia and the stasis in the government on producing a budget&amp;nbsp;in the context of fiscal constraints suggest policy paralysis.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The new development for the second half of 2024 through 2025 may well be that both Germany and China, two of the important engines of the world economy, become embroiled in economic and political crises of their own making.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Wrong Turns

&lt;p&gt;As they near retirement, many women in Ireland face a harsh reality that their pensions are significantly lower than those of men. Our colleague Miriam Burke, Head of Member Engagement at Unio Employee Benefits explores the gender pension gap, looking at causes and some practical approaches to addressing the shortfall.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 2024 Gender Pension parity Gap Report from Irish Life clearly highlights the pension inequality faced by working women, finding a worrying 36% gender pension gap(1). This gender pension gap, driven by factors such as parental leave, career breaks for caregiving, part-time work and lower lifetime earnings, highlights ongoing inequalities that jeopardise the financial security of Irish women.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In my job, I meet and advise hundreds of men and women every year at different stages in their retirement cycle and get to see this ‘gap’ at first hand. It’s a fact that women’s pension pots are lower than their male counterparts and while thankfully over the last few years the gender pay gap is getting less, and women are more aware, and paying into their pensions earlier, their ‘pension pots’ continue to be lower.&amp;nbsp;The report finds that women in this country would need to work a staggering eight years longer to retire with the same pension pot as men (1). I think we could do better.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Why the gap?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Anyone can end up having a gap in their pension, due to parental leave, maternity or paternity leave, or caring for a family member, however, the implication of taking time out from paying pension contributions needs to be considered carefully, as these breaks can severely impact pension income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Though both women and men take time out from the workforce, on average European women spend 4.3 years less in paid employment than men, though in Ireland, that gap is wider at six years(2).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another driver of the pension gap is the perennial issue of the pay gap. The overall EU gender earnings gap is 36.2 %(2). The Irish Life report found that women’s salaries are, on average, 22% less than their male colleagues.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The ‘glass ceiling’ too remains a factor. The position in the hierarchy influences the level of pay and less than one in ten of top companies’ CEOs are women (3).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On a positive note, I believe that the new generation of women coming into the workplace are generally more confident, finance-savvy and very focused on their pensions however, the pressure seems to be on women to educate themselves, and demand pay transparency and equal rewards.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Bridging the gap&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The gender pension gap issue is complex, and a multi-faceted approach is needed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Solutions such as pension contributions for caregivers and promoting equal pay are obvious and important steps forward. Visibility of women in senior roles will help as will reporting salary ranges to understand gender representation in the workforce.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is a mechanism that allows employers to increase contributions for individuals on their return from unpaid leave, but it is not widely availed off. Similarly, employees could increase their AVCs at any time on their return to make up for lost contributions however this may not be affordable. An approach where employers pay pension contributions when employees are on maternity or paternity leave is what is needed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pensions are complex and information is power. Engage frequently with your pension adviser to make sure you understand your options when it comes to your pension arrangements and the implications of any leave entitlements.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;References:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gender Pension Parity Report, Irish Life, 2024&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Duration of Working Life, Eurostat, 2023&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Gender Pay Gap Situation in the EU, Eurostat 2022&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Mind the Gap – The Gender Pension Gap in Ireland

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 12th August, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week&#39;s investment brief in full:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/5RVXVjMPdaQ?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;In summary: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Despite a&amp;nbsp;volatile start in equity markets last week, by the close of business on Friday, the MSCI World had made back all its losses from Monday’s sell off, breaking even for the week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- On a regional basis, European stocks traded highest, closing out the week up 0.4% leaving YTD gains of 7.0% compared to 13.8% in the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Fixed income yields also ticked higher, in particular in the US where the 10 year yield jumped 0.14% to 3.94% over further recession fears. It also didn’t help that oil prices ticked up 4.4%, adding further pressure to the future inflation outlook.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Looking ahead to this week, US and UK inflation data will be released on the 14th and will no doubt be watched closely, due to the impact it could have on rate cutting cycles in September. From an earnings perspective some big US retailers such as Walmart and Home Depot will post their earnings on the 13th whilst Tencent and Cisco will post theirs on the 14th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite the strong sell off in equity markets over the last week the ‘bull-bear’ sentiment index, which is still above zero represents an overall positive outlook on US equity markets. However it has pulled back considerably in recent days.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCN6VMGQ6V5NCMPBS6Q6AULXFW6A?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqNA&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCN6VMGQ6V5NCMPBS6Q6AULXFW6A&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;chart of week12082024.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;We are here to help&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice.&amp;nbsp;If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/sodvwdkei0/lbhlyi9c77v151dy77l1u4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=5&amp;amp;p=64443015&amp;amp;t=31915503__;!!GIL_j7ndwvA!Dl6WHPkYbVBPT1bFb5mk2sFM9ynJvDqyozyeviD7FZN7KxOG_FKcjhs01l9R1A-lGRHtDeWA-BUdAb9WW3hmEY5G$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt; or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;let&#39;s talk.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View 12th August 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;On Saturday morning I got up early to run the first and last ten kilometres of the Olympic marathon course, a few hours before the actual race. The course joins the most memorable parts of Paris with Versailles and is consistent with the spirit of the two-week Games in showing the accessibility of the city and its magnificence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I have spent much of the past two weeks at the Games, mostly at the rowing, athletics and other endurance events like triathlon and bike (my favourite performances were Cork’s Paul O’Donovan and Fintan McCarthy –in the men’s lightweight sculls, Cassandre Beaugrand in the women’s triathlon, and the USA’s Grant Fisher in the 10,000m).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Once the security-driven tension of the opening passed, Paris relaxed and blossomed, and I think it is fair to say that the Games have been a huge success for Paris, France and the morale of the French people (their morale always needs boosting, their self-regard not so).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The success of the Games is a sharp contrast to the mood one month ago, when the country was confronted with the possibility that Jordan Bardella might be prime minister during the Games. Yet, Bardella has now effectively disappeared from public view. The question now is whether the success of the Games will colour the process of the formation of a new government?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My hunch is that it makes a government led by either the far left and far right less likely, and points to a preference for a centrist government – which I think is predicated on a split in the NFP left coalition (coming once they all return from holidays). I do not think that Emmanuel Macron’s reputation will be vastly enhanced by the Games, but they could be decisive in the race for mayor of Paris (Anne Hildago might opt to stand again, against the likes of Rachida Dati and Clement Beaune).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One reason that the atmosphere in Paris seemed so relaxed is that most of the Parisians left the city.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In my experience one motivation for this is that, unlike say England, there is no ‘sports culture’ in France (at least in the realms of the upper and middle classes). Achievement in sports is something for people in the regions, or the suburbs. Despite&amp;nbsp;that, France does remarkably well in many sports like rugby, which is in effect played in a few regional centres (and professionally in Paris).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In this respect, the strong performance of France in the Games, allied to the even more impressive medal haul of Australia and combined with the lacklustre showing of larger countries like India, Brazil and South Africa (who have a combined three gold medals compared the six won by tiny New Zealand) begs the question as to what makes a successful Olympic nation, and whether these characteristics are correlated to economic achievement or even innovation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Here, there are maybe three different models.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first, which encompasses the English speaking nations (GB -5th place in the medals table, USA – currently 2nd, Australia – 3rd, New Zealand – 11th and&amp;nbsp;Ireland – 14th) and some of the Nordics is based on what I call the ‘schools’ model, where sport is taught and practised competitively in the school system, and where this is valued culturally. In many cases, successful school athletes (especially so in Olympic sports) can continue sports at a very high level at university or clubs. Here the US university system stands out for the support it gives to athletes (from many countries, note that France’s hero Leon Marchand is a student at Arizona State University) and the vast resources that individual universities possess.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What is interesting from the point of view of the Olympics is that the national sports of the English-speaking countries – American football and baseball, hurling and Gaelic football, cricket, Australian rules – are not Olympic sports, and if anything draw talented athletes away from Games sports (and the Nordics have winter sports). It is still however an argument that a ‘sporting culture’ pays off.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second approach is what I call ‘institutional excellence’, as exemplified by France (and it must also be said Australia with its world leading Institute for Sport), where promising athletes are funnelled through high level performance institutes and top flight clubs, and given support in terms of conditioning, psychology and diet. In the case of France, other institutions like the army also play a supporting role (19 of 52 French medal winners are soldiers). Japan and South Korea might also fall into this category, though it is worth noting the role that Japanese corporates play in supporting sports like running.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The third model is the ‘communist’ one, which whilst communism has gone out of fashion, the communist system’s approach to manufacturing athletes has not, and is manifest in China, Romania and of course Russia. In these countries, within certain sports (rowing is one), promising physiological ‘specimens’ are channelled into specific sports and driven to compete. Whilst athletes from many countries have engaged in drug-fuelled enhancement, the ‘communist’ model countries have recently been the greatest offenders (Russia’s efforts here has been described as ‘state-sponsored and systematic’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;These are very broad sketches and will miss many elements such as the quality of individual coaching. One element they have in common is ‘age’ in the sense that most of the successful Olympic countries have been competing for a long time (the 1924 medal table was dominated by the USA, France, Finland, GB and Sweden) and I suspect that institutionalised expertise in many sports as well as a sense of ‘how to win’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;While my fellow Parisian Simon Kuper of the FT writes that there is a correlation between the level of economic development and Olympic achievement, I think it is more complicated. There does seem to be a correlation between sporting success and country pedigree (system longevity) and gender equality, and there does not appear to be a relationship between rate of development and Olympic achievement (China is the exception).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What is more interesting is the notion that the three above ‘Olympic’ models are related to different approaches to innovation. As we noted in last week’s note, China has a state driven, ‘all-costs’, competitive approach to innovation, Europe’s is also state driven and resource-short, while the resource rich US university model (I would include Imperial and Oxbridge in the UK here too) tallies well with the centres of innovative excellence in the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If there is a lesson to countries like India, who perhaps want to be more successful (India sent a large business/socialite/media delegation to the Games) it is to focus on schools and colleges, develop a competitive sports program within its huge army, and copy Australia’s Institute for Sport.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Let’s see who does well in LA.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Olympic Economies

&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Irish investors can learn a lot from John Maynard Keynes, renowned for his economic theories but less celebrated for his investment acumen. In the 1920s and 1930s, Keynes managed portfolios for insurance companies and King’s College, Cambridge, and consistently beat the market by over 5% a year. His bold strategies, like early investments in stocks and focused positions, influenced modern investment managers, notably Yale’s David Swensen. Keynes’ work provides a blueprint for effective investment strategies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;John Maynard Keynes is very well known for his contributions to economics and policy making, but less so for his investing prowess. In the 1920’s Keynes worked as a portfolio manager for two insurance companies and from 1921 to 1946 ran the endowment (the ‘Chest’) for King’s College, Cambridge. Keynes’ investing performance is the subject of some fascinating research by David Chambers and Elroy Dimson.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Early in his career Keynes was what we might call a macro investor, focusing on commodities and foreign exchange. Later, he became more focused on stocks, and from the 1930’s Keynes beat the (stock) market by over 5% per year despite several close shaves with personal bankruptcy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Viewed from the point of view of today’s stock market, what was unusual about Keynes’ style was that in the 1920’s and 1930’s equities were very much the preserve of retail investors, and not so much institutional managers.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, Chambers and Dimson remark that Keynes’ early allocation to equities was ‘as radical as the much later move to illiquid assets in the late 20th century by Yale’. Unsurprisingly, Keynes’ investing style, which was driven by strong macro-economic views and focused on a few, large and often concentrated positions (if he was investing today he would likely be heavily invested in mega-cap technology stocks) has influenced modern endowment managers, most notably David Swensen of Yale.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Swensen pioneered the move by large US university endowments towards private assets (notably private equity, but also infrastructure and venture), a strategy that has proven remarkably profitable. The top endowments, generally Ivy League schools and other top ranking universities like MIT, have consistently made double digit returns, spurred by annual §private equity returns in the very high teens.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, the endowment model is coming under scrutiny, partly because some universities have overinvested in private assets at a time when capital distributions have slowed (my former employer Princeton University has effectively invested up to 40% of its portfolio in private equity and venture), and partly because universities themselves have adjusted their expenditure upwards whilst they have enjoyed generous disbursements from performing endowments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Endowments in the US originally paid 4% of their value to universities annually but in some cases this has risen to 12% (in turn pressuring endowment managers to produce returns). Broadly, disbursements from endowments amount to close to 30% of university budgets with much of it spent on student financial aid. Given that cash distributions from private equity funds have slowed, the knock on to university spending is being felt.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Anyone who has visited a top-flight US university and witnessed the extent to which laboratories, sports facilities and student bursaries are well funded will appreciate the size of university budgets and the role that endowments play. In Europe, only ETH Zurich can match this level of financial backing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The debate on endowment investing has been enlivened by the publication in February of the 50th NACUBO Endowment Study. In general, the nearly 700 endowments surveyed in the report hold less fixed income than I would imagine for a typical ‘balanced’ investor, more ‘foreign’ equities than US (this might explain some underperformance), and nearly 50% alternative assets (including a large slug of hedge funds).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Interestingly from the point of Keynes’ active management stance, nearly 50% of US endowments ‘outsourced’ their investment office function. Reflecting this, allocations to private equity, returns and return distribution tend to be better in the larger endowments that have well-equipped investment teams.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In turn this reflects the reality that private equity and venture are two of the asset classes (unlike equity and bond funds) where returns are highly dispersed (i.e. there is a large difference between the best and worst performing funds). As such, finding the best performing funds and gaining access to them has a cost in terms of investment research resources. To this end, I wonder if many universities have really been following the ‘endowment’ model as pioneered by Keynes and Swensen.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, one of the secrets of the performance of the Yale and Harvard models is that they have very good networks of alumni in the private investment industry, who willingly proffered the best advice and access to their alma mater.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Supporting this theory, Keynes had a similar network of former students around the world (notably in Africa – think mining stocks and commodities) who offered him advice, information and investment opportunities and he also had access to relatively sophisticated telegram technology, so that in some cases he had access to market moving information before others. Further, Keynes was unlike many investors today in that his colleagues at King’s had great faith in him and gave him enormous freedom to pursue his own investment style.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This ‘freedom’ has been all but quashed by benchmarking and technology in public markets (i.e. equity and bond funds) but still exits in private markets – the trick is to find the Keynes like managers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit&amp;nbsp;Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/sodvwdkei0/lbhlyi9c77v151dy77l1u4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=5&amp;amp;p=64443015&amp;amp;t=31915503__;!!GIL_j7ndwvA!Dl6WHPkYbVBPT1bFb5mk2sFM9ynJvDqyozyeviD7FZN7KxOG_FKcjhs01l9R1A-lGRHtDeWA-BUdAb9WW3hmEY5G$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Treasure Chest

&lt;p&gt;Stock markets in Europe remained unsettled today after a couple of days of volatile trading in the US. This was in reaction to fears of a US economic slowdown. A rare interest rate rise in Japan is also believed to have played a part.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Global Macro Council has issued a note following recent activity in global equity markets&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/What-does-market-stress-mean-for-the-economy-August-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read the report in full. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Listen to Mike O’Sullivan, Strategic Adviser and Director at Unio, and Alex Kinsella our Head of Investment Solutions, discuss recent market and macro events and what they mean for the economy and our client portfolios.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Unio-Client-Call-_What-does-market-stress-mean-for-the-economy_August-2024.mp3&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Listen here&lt;/a&gt; ( 10 minutes duration)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;talk to us. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

What does market stress mean for the economy?

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If I uttered the word plenum, you might think I was a surgeon or arcane barrister, and not a casual observer of Chinese politics. The ‘Plenum’ is held seven times during the five yearly policy making cycle that aims to set the long-term direction of the development of China by the Communist Party.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Amidst the generalised chaos of Western politics in recent weeks, China held its most recent plenum (July 15-19), and this was the third plenum of this policy cycle, which typically focuses on economic policy. Though the outcome appeared to have been something of a damp squib, it is worth reflecting on .&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;To many international observers (note that China is becoming much less transparent in its policy process and in the availability of detailed macro data), there are three re-occurring threads.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is to ‘make China more like Denmark’(my words not the CCP’s), in other words to deepen its social welfare net and to limit inequalities. This has long been a goal of the CCP. In 2018, in the last chapter of the Levelling we wrote that ‘&lt;em&gt;Another approach is to develop social infrastructure that encompasses many of the elements of intangible infrastructure, such as health-care spending, education, pension plans, and broader financial services. ……Motivation for building social infrastructure in China may come from stress points uncovered during China’s next recession. As such, it would be a logical chapter in China’s path to development, and not at all unlike Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal. The New Deal was a watershed in the United States in many respects, one of which was that it marked the full evolution of the United States from an emerging to a developed nation.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The building out of a social infrastructure in China remains a significant project, as does the flattening out of Chinese society – effectively the elimination of poverty and the reduction of inequalities. Granted that I wrote the above paragraph in 2017/18, it is striking that a number of basic reforms are still missing – there is very little reform of the hukou system (household registration system that allows internal migrants to work in cities) and children of migrant workers to cities do not receive the same social benefits and education as children of city parents do. In addition, little accommodation has been made for the fact that the ageing of the population will strain the social safety network. In that regard China looks a little like France!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;So, like the US under Roosevelt, the creation of a formal ‘new deal’ type social infrastructure, if it happens, could be a (positive) turning point for China.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second challenge is to make China more like Silicon Valley. The plenum underlined the importance of maintaining a laser like focus on ‘high quality development’, which translates as the need to make China the leader in new, strategic technologies. In this respect it is conceptually like the EU’s idea of strategic autonomy, but far far more serious in implementation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In addition, the wording of the plenum drafts references ‘fierce international competition’, which ultimately points to intense competition with European car manufacturers, and in the telecoms and AI sectors. In recent years the number of directives from the CCP on topics that fall under the ‘Strategic Innovation’ umbrella, has multiplied and state aid for sectors like AI and semiconductors is now burgeoning into the trillions of dollars.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The third element that bears flagging is the ongoing focus on ‘reform’, and to my limited experience there is a ‘lost in translation’ element where quite harsh Chinese policies end up being translated as positive, innocuous Western ones. As an example, I recall in the 2010’s a very senior Chinese trade diplomat explaining that ‘rule of law’ did not equate to a Western sense of adherence to established laws, but rather the imposition of the rule of the CCP on business, politics and society. In that context, the idea of ‘reform’ means the fitting of Chinese society to the will of CCP, and specifically Xi Jinping ‘thought’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My interpretation of all of this is that Xi is shaping China in the form of a more closed state (which again to the tone of my recent note on globalization, makes for a less open world), that curbs the will of those inside, adopts a singularly selfish approach to those outside, and relies on several great strides in technological industrialisation for the prolongation of the ‘China Dream’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The contradiction here, and specifically between the three strands to emerge from the plenum, is that in its policy making (social infrastructure) and economy (high quality development) China needs innovation but is creating a socio-political system that smothers it. This is the fallacy of authoritarian systems.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In this respect, the third plenum missed a trick in not outlining a Keynesian style stimulus for the economy (or even longer-run structural one). The property market is slowing, entrepreneurs are very cautious and the risks associated with local government debt are rising.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Plenum

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Major changes to Ireland’s pension system are only months away. But the reforms could have negative consequences for those who have already amassed significant retirement savings, writes Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning at Unio.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A new pension auto-enrolment system is due to come into effect in Ireland at the start of 2025. The system is designed to address the problem of declining and inadequate long-term retirement savings by ensuring employees automatically join the scheme.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the government has provided a good deal of information on how auto-enrolment will work, several details still need to be confirmed – and there is also some uncertainty around whether the systems needed to implement the scheme will be in place in time for the January 2025 deadline.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Amid this uncertainty, early analysis carried out by Unio indicates that a number of high net worth (HNW) individuals may be at risk of falling victim to some unintended and potentially negative consequences of the new regime. At the moment, we are talking to our clients to explain what these issues could be and to discuss a variety of strategies that might need to be employed to avoid problems such as higher tax bills.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How the auto-enrolment regime will operate&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;According to legislation, that passed both Houses of the Oireachtas before the Dáil summer recess, around 800,000 employees, between the ages of 23 and 60, who earn at least €20,000 a year and who are not already members of a workplace pension, will be automatically enrolled in a new scheme from January 1, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Both employees and employers will contribute a certain percentage of the employee’s gross income to the scheme. This percentage will gradually rise over the first 10 years of membership, from 1.5% each in years one to three to 6% each in year 10. Additional top-ups will be made by the state.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Eligible employees will, at first, be opted into an auto-enrolment pension scheme for six months, after which they can choose to opt out if they wish. Anyone who does decide to opt out after the initial six-month period will be automatically re-enrolled two years later.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Potential impact on HNW individuals&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Auto-enrolment is being introduced to address the fact that aside from a potential State Pension entitlement, a large percentage of private-sector workers in Ireland currently have no other form of retirement savings. However, there appears to be a danger that a significant number of higher earners – specifically, those who have built up substantial pension pots already – could find themselves inadvertently included in the auto-enrolment system, which could have damaging implications for their finances.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is currently a €2 million limit on the total value of pension savings that can be accrued over a lifetime. Known as the Standard Fund Threshold (SFT), it was originally introduced in 2005, at a level of €5 million, but was reduced in 2010 in the wake of the financial crisis and again in 2014. Many people who have found themselves close to, or above, the SFT in recent years have decided to stop saving into a pension to avoid the punitive tax charge of an additional 40% that can be imposed as a result of exceeding the limit.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, if Revenue records indicate that someone is not currently part of a pension scheme, they are likely to be automatically enrolled at the start of 2025, and subsequently unable to leave the scheme for six months. During this period, and additional potential ‘opted in’ periods, the size of their lifetime pension savings may increase, potentially taking them past the €2 million SFT.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Avoiding tax charges and possible next steps&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The imminent introduction of auto-enrolment should prompt HNW individuals to examine their current pension status – whether they are still paying into a scheme or not – and check they are not at risk of being caught in a situation as described above. By working with a trusted adviser, you can assess if your current level of savings means you need to take the SFT into account. Equally, if you have stopped paying into a pension due to concerns around the SFT it could, in some circumstances, be worth restarting contributions at a very low level before the January 1, 2025, deadline to avoid being automatically enrolled against your wishes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is possible that the rules around auto-enrolment could be amended in the months ahead, and even that the scheme – which was originally due to start in early 2025 – may face further delays. Similarly, there have been calls recently for the government to lift the €2 million SFT, which has been in place since 2014, to reflect rising living costs and life expectancy. This uncertainty means it is even more important to stay in contact with finance experts over the coming months.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read more:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/ab617-historic-automatic-enrolment-legislation-passed-by-dail/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Historic Automatic Enrolment Legislation passed by Dáil, Department of Social Protection, 4 July 2024&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Auto-enrolment Pensions: How high earners could be caught in a tax trap.

&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCCPLLDNVA2REYVI4MH5IDEBELRE?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uptA&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCCPLLDNVA2REYVI4MH5IDEBELRE&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;All smiles Unio Harvest shot edit.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pictured above L-R: Garry Cullen, Head of Private Clients at Harvest Financial Services; Kate Candon, Chief Marketing Officer at Unio: Terry Devitt, Chief Investment Officer at Harvest Financial Services; Gerry Devitt, Managing Director at Harvest Financial Services; Ian Brady, CEO, at Unio; Linda Harmon, Chief Operating Officer at Unio; Michael O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio; and, Áine McGroarty, Chief Commercial Officer at Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Warm welcome to the team at Harvest who join Unio Wealth Management today 1st July.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Today, we are thrilled to share that Harvest Financial Services has joined forces with Unio Wealth Management to create a powerhouse in wealth management. We welcome the brilliant team of advisers and experts from Harvest to Unio and together we are on a journey that promises to elevate the level of service and expertise we provide our valued clients.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients’ wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. And, by welcoming the team from Harvest, we are enhancing our capabilities allowing us to draw from a wealth of knowledge, experience, and innovative strategies to better serve our clients&#39; diverse needs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thank you to our clients for your continued trust and support, we are excited about the future and are committed to maintaining the highest standards of excellence in everything we do.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ian Brady, Chief Executive Officer at Unio commented: “I am delighted to welcome the Harvest team to Unio Wealth Management. With the combined knowledge of our growing firm, Harvest and Unio are well-positioned to embark on a new chapter of growth and innovation. We remain dedicated to our mission of guiding, guarding and growing our clients wealth and we are confident that the addition of Harvest will propel us towards achieving our vision.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gerry Devitt, Managing Director, Harvest Financial Services: “It is great to see the business we created over 30 years ago enter a new and exciting phase with Unio Wealth Management. I am confident that the combined resources of the two businesses will deliver even better outcomes for our clients going forward. Onwards and upwards!”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Commenting on this milestone Aine McGroarty, Chief Commercial Officer at Unio: “Integrating with Harvest brings not only growth across all our teams but also an exciting opportunity to leverage our collective expertise, driving unparalleled value for our clients. Together, we intend to make a significant and lasting impact on our clients’ lives and lead the evolution of wealth management.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pictured below: The team at Harvest Financial Services.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCJTUA27MNB5FKBILR7W3UIEBO5A?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio welcomes the team at Harvest Financial Services.&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000upte&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCJTUA27MNB5FKBILR7W3UIEBO5A&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Unio welcomes Harvest team 1 01 07 2024.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Warm welcome to the team at Harvest Financial Services

&lt;p&gt;There remain few winners in the French general election. The best that can be said is that there will not be a Rassemblement-led government during the Olympics. The risk now is of ongoing political uncertainty and friction, and in the context of a move towards the far-left (some of whose worst instincts encompass support for Hamas and 90% income tax rates), a confrontation with bond markets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The takeaway of the election is that the Rassemblement has not triumphed. A number of factors have played a role here. In the past couple of weeks, tv and radio interviews have exposed the lack of real policy knowledge of Jordan Bardella (notably revealing his comments on the rights of bi-nationals), not to mention the incoherence of many of his RN colleagues.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, tactical voting across the country has managed to limit the advance of the RN (who are now engaging in the familiar cry that ‘the election has been stolen’). Bear in mind that the RN won 37% of the votes but will have fewer seats than the far-left NFP group who garnered 27% of the vote, which shows the power of tactical voting but also should sound a warning ahead of the French presidential elections (2027).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are several strands emerging. The first is that while Macron has avoided a RN majority, he has ushered it into the mainstream of French politics, crippled his own party and resurrected the far-left in France. He remains severely diminished in the sense that the majority of French people resent him, prior political allies from Edouard Philippe to Gabriel Attal are distancing him, and that political power will now pass to parliament.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Attention will now turns to the formation of a government. The French constitution doesn’t offer a clear guide here – it is set up to shape majority governments. There are perhaps three scenarios to bear in mind.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;A technocratic government of experts and well-regarded figures in public life. We are aware that the Elysee had been in touch with several eminent people prior to the second round. This scenario is a low probability one for the moment, at least until other possibilities are exhausted.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;An NFP centred government, with ‘silent support’ of the centre. We think this would be difficult to achieve given the policy programme of the La France Insoumise in particular, and they would have to severely moderate this and give up the chance for Jean-Luc Melanchon to serve in government (everyone is against this).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;-&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;A ‘grand coalition’ government of the centre, which is enabled by the breaking of the socialists with LFI to join Renew and possibly the Greens/Ecolos, and some of the right wing deputies. This ‘German’ style government could come close to a slim majority but would necessitate a break in the left wing coalition. The difficulty for Macron would be the role that Francois Hollande might play, the concessions he would need to give to the Greens and the choice of prime minister (maybe Raphael Glucksmann?). Glucksmann, an MEP, is one of the relative winners of the campaign, along with the soon to be former prime minister Gabriel Attal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What’s next? Gabriel Attal is expected to submit his resignation, though it is unclear if Macron will accept it for now (he has the NATO summit this week), and we suspect that this government could be kept in place till after the Olympics, with a lot of manoeuvring going on at the same time. The leader of the Assemblée will be selected on the 18th July, and then September looms in terms of a budget.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Economically, a new government could be less coherent, less experienced (Bruno Le Maire was in place for seven years) and will want to spend more, with a possibility (esp if the NFP is involved) that it will be instinctively less friendly to investment and capital markets. As such, France is up against the limits of fiscal space, and the risk of a run in with the bond market is high.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Summary: This was a very costly move by Macron. France and its parliament is divided, the far-left is in a powerful position in parliament, the far-right has garnered 37% of the vote and there are growing financial risks to the political outlook in France. Macron as a political force is finished.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

France – Germany without the money

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;This article was written by Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and appears in &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024/07/03/the-demise-of-macron-as-a-political-force-will-be-felt-across-europe/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;The Irish Times&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt; today ahead of the second round in the French election.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Events in France point to a more chaotic future, and Ireland must build its defence and security infrastructure amid growing challenges&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Next weekend, France faces into the second round of its unexpected, dramatic general election, with a number of grave risks on the political and economic horizons. There will be implications for Europe, and Ireland.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In a ‘year of elections’ globally, France has suddenly become the source of political drama as Emmanuel Macron’s plan to throw a ‘grenade’ into the political arena has backfired badly. His hope was to recompose the centre of French politics but instead he has evacuated it. Amidst a large first round turnout, he has now re-energised the far-left, which is building a rancorous coalition with other left-wing parties, and at the same time, ushered the far-right to the antechamber of government. For the second time, Macron has remade the French political system.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This is an election that very few French people wanted, and the timing of it, with the holiday season and Olympics, could not have been more divisive. With the first round results manifestly favouring the Rassemblement National, Macron is the main loser and ‘Macronism’ (big speeches and big ideas) is very likely over.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Two broad scenarios are now forming. One is of a minority Rassemblement National (RN) led government, aided by various members of the right (mostly former Republicans). The centre and far-left parties are now engaging in&amp;nbsp;a&amp;nbsp;loose voting arrangement to try to limit the seats that the Rassemblement wins. The other, given the obvious lack of durability of a far-left anchored coalition, is some form of techno-cratic government. Both scenarios are laden with the risk of constitutional crisis and the potential for political unrest and strikes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At a time when Labour looks likely to bring a steady, boring calm to British politics, it seems that the contagion of political chaos has passed to Paris, and neither of the&amp;nbsp;above two&amp;nbsp;scenarios is likely to result in an orderly Assembly. The far left and far right are very hostile to each other, and neither would have patience for true technocrats, a feeling that is likely reciprocated. In that context, it is hard to imagine any meaningful policies being enacted in France in the next year, and to a large extent the 2027 presidential race has kicked off.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Macron has done something unusual for a French president in that he has, possibly like David Cameron and his successors in the Tory party, done harm to his country. In the eyes of many his decision to call an election has opened up a series of tail-risks for France and Europe, and this is where the implications for Ireland lie.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;France, like the UK, has a debt to GDP ratio that, apart from the period around the world wars, hasn’t been as elevated since the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars. This, and a large deficit, create the conditions for a financial accident and a more difficult relationship with Brussels. Both the RN and the Nouveau Front Populaire have deep seated antipathies to the Anglophone commercial and financial world, and neither has a good relationship with the European policy ‘centre’, that would enable them to work easily with the EU and its institutions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As such, there is a higher risk of financial stress in the euro-zone, though likely not a full-blown crisis. In this context a far-right led government may opt to put fiscal policy on ‘auto-pilot’ and focus much more intently on the issues of identity, immigration and security, which itself would be contentious.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The likely demise of Emmanuel Macron as a political force will be felt across Europe. He has been the motivating force behind the idea of ‘strategic autonomy’ and has provoked the security debate with comments like ‘NATO is brain dead’. His&amp;nbsp;diminished&amp;nbsp;standing will make the EU/NATO security outlook less coherent, especially so if he sits atop a Rassemblement government. Additionally, the centre of European political power may now move towards countries like Poland, with Italy and Greece also likely to become more influential. Of particular concern is the scope for relations with Germany to suffer if there is a Rassemblement&amp;nbsp;government.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are perhaps two more lessons for Ireland. The first is that we have one of the best democratic systems in the world, even if that is not always accurately reflected in public discourse. The lesson is that democracies need to be nurtured and protected, and the incivility that has crept into public life is a negative development.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second is that Ireland is increasingly suffering the problems that have bedeviled France for some time – an inability to absorb large numbers of immigrants, the demands of an intensely dangerous international security environment and the allure of populism, and these need to be addressed in a structured way, with clear political vision.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ireland as a state is still set up for a globalized world, but as deglobalization sets in these negative trends will intensify. In that regard it is wiser to regard events in France as a harbinger, or warning for the future, as opposed to an outlier. The aim then is to start to build infrastructure – defence and security is one example – that will mean Ireland has the resilience to meet the growing challenges that a more chaotic world throws at it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Mike O’Sullivan is the co-author of ‘L’Accord du Peuple’ (Calmann-Levy) with Pierre-Charles Pradier, and a speaker at the Rencontres Économiques in Aix-en-Provence this weekend.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The demise of Macron as a political force will be felt across Europe

&lt;p&gt;The political landscape is shifting dramatically, with the Conservatives ousted from office in the UK, potential changes looming in France and, the latest developments in the US Presidential campaign. Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio joined Newstalk&#39;s Joe Lynam to discuss events of the week in politics, business and markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://open.spotify.com/episode/2n1hOLn4Ts4ZctY0yAKusP?si=vL0DFHcASq2l92tv6X5ADg&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Listen📻 here &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

What do the latest political changes mean for global economies?

&lt;p&gt;This year has brought significant elections with unexpected impacts on international markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Eurozone bond yields, including those for Ireland, surged following President Macron’s shock dissolution of the French parliament. Shares in India fell post-election and the peso plummeted after elections in Mexico.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser,&amp;nbsp;Unio&amp;nbsp;joined Newstalk&#39;s Joe Lynam this morning to discuss how elections are shaking up global markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;📻 &lt;a href=&quot;https://open.spotify.com/episode/5wrdzr65XFhzO0HJhynkpO?si=bDZk1tBoQeq6e_6ucS8RDw&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Listen here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;5 mins 48 secs&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment. If you want to find out more, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Irish Times

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