&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Technology happens quickly. This time two years ago, few people had heard about ChatGPT, and few investors knew what Nvidia did. On January 6th 2023, I wrote a note entitled ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2023/01/06/talos/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jW_fkXuO5C243TaS3Eyb8QWlrZB8KR1DxOQl04Cjx6CP7IfDe0-ZfpfCtz9clZzhoC9B_ooY-M-mx6qRb8SqOBhk$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Talos&lt;/a&gt;’ where I remarked...&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;’A recent development here is the arrival of ChatGPT an interactive ‘intelligent’ bot that has been developed by OpenAI (set up seven years ago to build socially constructive AI, and recently valued at USD 30bn). ChatGPT is catching on quickly, not least because students have found that it can write half decent essays. I recently tested it out, asking for a response to the question ‘Is globalization over?’- the result is below, and in my humble opinion is a good rendition of the kind of response that a ‘two handed economist’ might give (‘on one hand…on the other’). I think I can just about do better, and if there is any lesson to draw it is for human writers to be more opinionated, quirky or style driven in how they write. I am not out of a job just yet.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I am still writing, and don’t use ChatGPT to do so. In January 2023, my presumption was that because ChatGPT had already been in place for some time, investors knew about it and had factored it into share prices (the theory of efficient markets in finance says that all publicly available information is quickly reflected in market prices).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This was not the case, and with hindsight, I realise that students of economic and finance of the 1990’s spent far too much time imbibing the ‘efficient markets hypothesis’, which was a big thing at the time and the&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.princeton.edu/*ceps/workingpapers/91malkiel.pdf__;fg!!O22_8FOSssc!jW_fkXuO5C243TaS3Eyb8QWlrZB8KR1DxOQl04Cjx6CP7IfDe0-ZfpfCtz9clZzhoC9B_ooY-M-mx6qRbyp67IFO$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; big guns of academic finance raged about it into the 2000’s&lt;/a&gt;. I suspect that more people today believe markets are rigged than efficient, with the rigging done by vampire squid type funds and central banks, to name a few culprits.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The performance of AI centric stocks (notably Nvidia) shows that the early promise of AI was underestimated, perhaps to the extent to which it is overestimated today. Indeed, the concentration of the top ten companies in the US stock market (they make up 40% of the market capitalisation) is as high as it only has been in 1930. In that context, the apparent supplanting of ChatGPT by DeepSeek (we might call it ‘Chatccp’) in the Apple app store is a reality check.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It is also an efficient markets check. I had seen the initial model test results from DeepSeek at the start of this year (Azeem Azhar’s blog had mentioned it back in November, and also as far back as &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.exponentialview.co/p/ev-451?utm_source=substack&amp;amp;utm_medium=email__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jW_fkXuO5C243TaS3Eyb8QWlrZB8KR1DxOQl04Cjx6CP7IfDe0-ZfpfCtz9clZzhoC9B_ooY-M-mx6qRb-FaIfTY$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;December 2023&lt;/a&gt;). To that end, the technology world has been well aware of DeepSeek for months, so it is a surprise, and another slap in the face for efficient markets hypothesis (I am still a little obsessed about this).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whatever about efficient markets, the advent of DeepSeek is a reminder of how the cycle of innovation in economies works, and will have some commentators rushing for their Schumpeter. The Austrian economist coined the term ‘creative destruction’, but his views on capitalism are worth re-reading for he believed that it would undermine itself (different cohorts or corporates would effectively block the system) and collapse. His work on business cycles is also well overdue a comeback.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;We don’t quite know whether DeepSeek (who claim to have produced superior model results compared to ChatGPT and Claude AI for a fraction of the cost) have been helped by the Chinese state, whether any espionage is involved nor the extent to which they have piggybacked on work already done by US based teams. Nor is it too important that the bandwidth of the model is restricted in China and that it is unlikely to be widely used in the West.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The important development is that the cost of production threshold for large AI models has been set much lower. Other cheaper models are on the way, Bytedance&#39;s Doubao-1.5 or Moonshot&#39;s Kimi k1.5 are two emerging examples.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;To that end, the first phase in the AI boom now comes to an end. Much like other key technology infrastructure breakthroughs – railway (railway companies made up 50% of the stock market in 1900), automobiles (France dominated the auto market from 1903 to 1929, at times manufacturing half of the world’s cars) to the internet (anyone remember AOL or Netscape”) – the initial innovation garners huge amounts of capital, is expected to change the world, which it does but often not in the ways investors expect. The legacy is usually a new web of infrastructure.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the next phase of AI, Investors will now not likely pay up for model developers but will focus on unique datasets, applications of AI (health) and the AI industrial supply chain - energy for AI for example (see last week’s note ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/humphrey&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Humphrey&lt;/a&gt;’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The view of the stock market, which quickly rebounded, is that the consumer is the winner – that DeepSeek opens up the prospect of cheaper, better AI for common use, and I think the investor conversation will turn to how this impacts consumption patterns and the way people work (from police officers to teachers).&amp;nbsp;The fact that the stock market took the positive view of the DeepSeek news suggests that the AI bubble in stocks is alive and well.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Elsewhere in AI, model development is accelerating in a sinister way. In a paper entitled &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/ai-red-line-b2687013.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;‘Frontier AI systems have surpassed the self-replicating red line’,&lt;/a&gt; scientists at Fudan university highlight how AI can build replicates of itself, and when this process runs into obstacles, demonstrate a survival instinct (such as rebooting hardware to fix errors). It strikes me that this is the real AI development we need to pay attention to.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Revenge of the Textbook

&lt;p&gt;The January Global Macro Council( GMC) Outlook highlights that 2025 might be the year to move away from expensive, high-performing assets that had strong momentum in 2024. Better diversification could lead to better long-term returns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this month&#39;s GMC, we were fortunate to be joined by guest speakers Moritz Brand Portfolio Manager at Invesco Quantitative Strategies and Fawaz A Chaudhry Partner &amp;amp; Head of Equities at Fulcrum Asset Management. Thank you both for your insights and expertise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-January-2025-_Year-of-the-Contrarian.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read this month&#39;s GMC outlook in full.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Market Trends&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Liquidity injections from central banks have driven momentum in markets over the last decade.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Expensive growth stocks have outperformed value stocks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The dollar has shown strong momentum in the past two years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Current Asset Valuations&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Significant capital is tied up in top technology firms, the dollar, and corporate bonds, all at all-time high valuations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The dollar is the most expensive it has been since the early nineties.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• US stock valuations are close to the highest levels since the late 1990s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The top fifteen US companies are worth as much as the Chinese and European equity markets combined.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Investment Strategy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• There is no bubble in the broad US market, but the significant amount of capital in very expensive dollar assets demands attention and action from investors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Better diversification, especially away from very expensive assets, could lead to better long-term returns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Influencing Factors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The collapse in long-term US bonds signals a resurgence of inflation and potential creditworthiness issues for the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• President Trump&#39;s executive orders on various topics might warrant a diversification strategy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Year of the Contrarian?

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning January 27th, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our investment brief in full 📽️:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/Lk2GB8wb0kQ?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ The Magnificent 7 will report quarterly results: Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla on the 29th; Apple on the 30th. These stocks have driven strong equity market performance in 2023 and 2024, dominating the S&amp;amp;P 500 index.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Following Trump&#39;s energy emergency declaration, investors await oil companies&#39; outlooks for the year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ On the macro side, the Federal Reserve&#39;s interest rate announcement is due on the 29th, with no change expected however there will be close attention to outlook and forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ In Europe, the ECB is set to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.9% on the 30th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;talk to us.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 27th January, 2025

&lt;p&gt;I’m glad to mention that my ‘GoldenEye’ note generated a lot of feedback, some of it cursing my good luck to spend a week in the Caribbean. To atone, I spent four days last week in the foggy cold of England, touring from Oxford to Manchester to the Cotswolds and finishing in London. Many of the places I visited are points of reference that I have known for a long time. Some have changed for the better (the Elizabeth line in London is very useful), some for the worse (this Manchester United team is indeed the worst ever), and some have not changed at all (the food at Pepper’s Burgers in Oxford is just as good as it was thirty years ago).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Economically and politically, Britain is worse off. Brexit has been a terrible misstep, and the new Labour government is struggling to even diagnose the sputtering economy. Real-wage growth is feeble, productivity is at multi-decade lows, the fiscal deficit dominates policy making and the bond market is more troubled than when Liz Truss was prime minister. The only saving grace is that Britain isn’t Germany.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In foreign policy, while Britain is an active supporter of Ukraine and still a UN Security Council member, it is at risk of becoming lost geopolitically – Britain is stranded outside the EU and the special relationship between Washington and London is all but dead politically in the Trump 2.0 era.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, Britain is good at remaking itself. I think that at some point it will have its ‘Brian’ moment when, to borrow from the Monty Python film (The Life of Brian), a political leader will emerge, haphazardly or by design, with the force of personality and ideas to right the country. Nigel Farage is not this person, and without being unkind, I am not sure that Keir Starmer is either.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It used to be the case that Britain didn’t need talented politicians; it had a large, expert civil service to run the country. Instead of ‘Brian’s’ it had ‘Humphreys’ after ‘Sir Humphrey Appleby’ the fictional cabinet secretary in the excellent 1980’s tv series ‘Yes, (Prime) Minister’. The series revolves around the art of non-decisions and the careful practice by civil servants of keeping elected officials far from the levers of power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When the engine of the economy was whirring, the job of the ‘Humphreys’ was to keep politicians from putting a spanner in the works. Now that productivity is dead across the UK (below the US, Germany and France) due to a lack of investment in capital and skills, the country needs to be inspired by new ideas. Thankfully, two of them came along last week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first was the latest in a series of notes on the UK economy by the excellent &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.longvieweconomics.com/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!i5Mdr0wxE6xjkP0eqq4wJkZVwMa1gNCaoRv5nxABPNcsfebGmi_rs4P8esFEO4OmaQLGMqAXwfjfzbfNROjOnFZ6$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;LongView Economics.&lt;/a&gt; In brief, their diagnosis is that Britain faces several, long-growing problems – to many ‘Humphreys’ or rather too much regulation and bureaucracy (government spending is at seventy year highs), the death of risk capital and the need to re-generate investment flows across the British economy and the financialization of the economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two of the solutions flagged by LongView are the needs to reform the NHS and to cut bureaucracy across government. This might happen sooner than many think because the second inspirational idea to come out of the UK was the launch a week ago of the &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-opportunities-action-plan/ai-opportunities-action-plan__;!!O22_8FOSssc!i5Mdr0wxE6xjkP0eqq4wJkZVwMa1gNCaoRv5nxABPNcsfebGmi_rs4P8esFEO4OmaQLGMqAXwfjfzbfNRASdxsRp$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;UK AI Opportunities Action Plan&lt;/a&gt;, which in effect was authored by the venture capitalist Matt Clifford with a little help from the likes of Sir Demis Hassabis. It is applied and well thought through enough that it could not have been written by civil servants. In a week where the USD 500bn Softbank/OpenAI/Oracle AI investment has grabbed the headlines, the UK AI Plan deserves much closer attention and, in my view, is the best framework for an AI value chain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whilst there are fifty recommendations in the report, all of which have been endorsed by the government, the main ones involve ‘feeding’ AI models by making high quality data more available (changing copyright laws), accelerate investment in data centres and also set up an AI Energy Council to plan the energy sources to power the data centres. There are also plans for a national data library and for the use of AI in the NHS.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One striking element, announced this Tuesday, is the use of AI assistants to speed up public services, with data-sharing deals across siloed departments; and a new set of AI tools — dubbed “Humphrey”. The aim is to speed up and make the work of civil servants more efficient – with the stated aim of saving GBP 55bn (this is very ambitious and if achieved would cut significantly into the budget deficit).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The plan, at least, is ambitious. Whether or not the Labour government can implement this plan is very much an open question but at least they have in their hands a blueprint for investment and perhaps the beginning of something better for the British economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Humphrey

&lt;p&gt;Unio Wealth Management has launched its monthly thought leadership series for 2025, the themes of which underpin financial advice to our clients.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read more: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Unio-Themes-2025-1.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Unio Wealth Management Monthly Thought Leadership Series&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2025 will see the dawning of a new world where new rules and ways of doing things are crafted, but also one where impatience is a symptom of an unclear future for many countries, companies and households.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, Unio is launching a monthly thought leadership series - New World, New Rules, Your Wealth - that will examine and debate how Ireland – from the point of view of its economy, politics and diplomacy – will be affected by this ‘new world under new rules’ theme.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Specifically, we will interrogate a number of strategic themes, that will command investors’ attention this year:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ireland and the EU&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The UK Splutters&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ireland’s Relationship With the US&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ireland&#39;s Security Posture&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Deep Tech and Strategic Autonomy&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Immigration&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Small States&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A constant thread through these themes is the relevance to financial markets, a sense of what international investors are doing and the implications for our clients’ portfolios: corporate; SME; and, professionals and executives in Ireland.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch below as Mike O&#39;Sullivan goes into more detail on each of the themes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch the short clip below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/MVFDZyvmCFo?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

New World, New Rules, Your Wealth.

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Navigating Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Pensions: Making Informed Decisions&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;This article compares Defined Benefit (DB) and Defined Contribution (DC) pensions. DB pensions offer guaranteed income, while DC pensions involve investment risk for the employee. Employers prefer DC schemes due to predictable costs. Transfer values allow employees to switch from DB to DC pensions, with potential benefits like inheritance options. The decision to transfer involves assessing financial factors, risk, and personal circumstances with the help of a financial adviser. 4 minutes read.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;DB pensions, where your former employer pays you a guaranteed income, have been described as the ultimate gold-plated pension.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Modern Pension Plans &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Most employers now offer a DC pension, where they provide employees with a set amount of money to invest in a pension plan. The employee takes on the investment risk and the uncertainty of whether the pension pot they have at retirement will be enough to support them in retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Employer Preferences&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Employers prefer DC schemes, because they know exactly what they need to pay into them each year for their employees, and after that, their obligation is satisfied. In contrast, DB schemes can be a large liability on the company balance sheet, because ultimately, they don’t know how long they will be paying out that guaranteed income – will all of the retired employees end up being centurions, with the company liable to pay them a guaranteed income for thirty or forty years?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Transfer Values&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Facing this uncertain cost, many companies offer pension scheme members transfer values. What this means is that they hand the member a DC pension in exchange for the member giving up their DB pension, that guaranteed income for life. The member takes on the investment risk and manages the pension to give them enough income to live on in retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Benefits of Transfer Values &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, there can be upsides to taking a transfer value too for example, what happens if the member passes away? With a DB pension, the pension payable each year is paid to the spouse, but is usually reduced by a third, or in some cases even by half. Then, upon the death of the surviving spouse, it ceases to pay completely. In some cases, there is no spouse’s pension at all, no value can be passed on to their children or other family members. In contrast, with a DC pension, the full value of the pension pot can pass to the spouse and estate just like any other asset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Factors Influencing Transfer Values &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The transfer value on offer may fluctuate over time, and this is driven by multiple factors. The most important are bond yields and how long the member has left until retirement. Typically, as bond yields increase, we see transfer values reduce, and vice versa. Also, as the member grows closer to retirement age, typically transfer values increase. Other things that can influence the transfer value on offer include the funding status of the scheme, and whether any enhancement is being offered by the sponsoring firm to incentivise the member to take the transfer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Making the Decision&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are many financial factors to be considered when weighing up a transfer value, but ultimately, it is a personal decision – a huge personal decision. If you choose to take the transfer value, there is no going back into the DB scheme. It can be a daunting decision to make. The process starts with a transfer value offer letter being received by the member, with no further context or analysis beyond the simple numbers of what their defined benefit entitlement is, and what the transfer value on offer is.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Our Approach&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We take a two-pronged approach when a client comes to us with a transfer value offer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;First, we assess whether the transfer value could provide them with the same level of income as the DB pension would, also considering what level of investment risk would have to be taken to achieve this.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Then we assess how the client’s risk profile stacks up against this required risk level.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Comprehensive Analysis&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Following this assessment, we look at the big picture. We run a cashflow analysis incorporating all the client’s assets, income, expenses, and liabilities, with one scenario showing their financial position if they remain in the DB scheme, and a second showing what might change &lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;if&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt; they take the transfer value.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We then move on to look at the personal side of things. What level of income does the client need, and how do they value security of income? Do they want to leave an inheritance to their family some day? How is their health, is there an increased risk of passing away early in retirement? Then we must assess how the client would deal with investment risk.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Considerations and Conclusions &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These factors represent just a fraction of the many considerations that must be taken into account when deciding whether to accept or decline a transfer value. By speaking to your financial adviser, you can gain valuable insights into the essential context surrounding transfer values, ensuring that your decision is well-informed and made with confidence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the author&lt;/strong&gt;: &lt;em&gt;Yvonne Clinton is a Financial Planner with Unio Wealth Management and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Navigating Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Pensions

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning January 20th, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our investment brief in full 📽️:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/iCWCh6XuNTY?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Earnings season kicked off with a bang last week with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs exceeding earnings and profit forecasts thanks to strong trading revenue.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Looking ahead to this week, several well know companies will report earnings: Netflix on the 21st; Johnson &amp;amp; Johnson&amp;nbsp;on the 22nd; and, American Express on the 24th. Over the past year American Express’s stock has risen c.69% as financial services companies continue to thrive.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Today is a big day in the US as the transfer of power between President Biden and Trump will take place at approximately 12:00 EST inside the Capitol Building.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ On the 21st, UK unemployment data for November will be released. Recent UK macroeconomic data has been generally muted. Bank of England officials may need to respond more quickly if the jobs report indicates weakness.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 20th January.

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I may well lose half of my readers with the next sentence but, whilst many of you were struggling in sub-zero temperatures I spent much of last week in the Caribbean. As the plane passed south over azure sea and white beaches, I thought to myself that we were not far from Goldeneye, the Jamaican residence of ‘James Bond’ author Ian Fleming. Indeed, the character of James Bond has some local Caribbean flavour, Fleming was a keen ornithologist and named his main character after an expert ornithologist and author of ‘Birds of the West Indies’ called James Bond, who subsequently visited Fleming at Goldeneye in 1964 (Goldeneye was the name of a 1941 intelligence operation in Spain that Fleming as involved in).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Early in his career, Fleming struggled to match his more illustrious father and brother (the excellent ‘Geographies, Genders and Geopolitics of James Bond’ by Lisa Funnell and Klaus Dodd underlines how Fleming’s conception of Bond was influenced by both his brother and father), and his military career really only took off when he took up a role in Intelligence (he worked at Room 37 at the Admiralty).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;He was given charge of a small but telling operation whose aim was to conceive high impact missions that had little chance of success, but that would confuse the enemy. His playbook of operations was called the Trout Memo – after the fly-fishing technique designed to entrap trout. The conception of these high risk missions formed the basis for the James Bond novels, which from 1953 onwards were very popular, and by 1965 the series had reached thirteen books.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In 1965 the writer Kingsley Amis, well known as a serious critic, poet and author, published the book ‘The James Bond Dossier’, an analysis of Ian Fleming’s Bond novels. The book which contains studied lists of Bond’s victims, lovers (at my count Bond prefers English, American, French and then Swedish ‘friends’) and adversaries (few governments, mostly individuals and warped older male sociopaths at that), helped Amis enter the world of popular culture – he clearly had a sense of the allure and longevity of the Bond brand.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some of the films based on Fleming’s work have been spot on in identifying threats and trends. On the whole and perhaps reflecting Fleming’s own operations, many of them involve the disruption of supply chains and the resulting profiteering – for instance Goldeneye was based on the deployment of an electromagnetic device to rob the Bank of England (don’t forget that Goldfinger plotted to use a dirty bomb to steal gold from Fort Knox), Tomorrow Never Dies Involved the manipulation of the media, in Die Another Day a satellite is used to manipulate the weather over North Korea and so on.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the Bond film franchise is struggling to settle on a new actor to take over from Daniel Craig, my sense is that we live in a world that is increasingly Bond like in its geopolitics. Whilst the period of globalizations was relatively calm, we are now in the midst of a number of trends that are Bondesque – a Cold War between the US and China, a grey war between Russia and Europe, NATO re-armament (which featured in Thunderball), the rise of oligarchy and the advent of space as a competitive domain, to mention a few.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Every time I leave Europe, the intensity of the US-China struggle for supremacy strikes me, though I feel that most Europeans are not alive to this. Neither are they alive to the shadow war that Russia (with help from China) is prosecuting on Europe. The Polish government (holder of the EU rotating presidency) unveiled a sabotage campaign by Russia to target freight aircraft across Europe. This comes after a series of assassinations, sabotage attacks and hacking campaigns that Russia has prosecuted in Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Back in the Caribbean, a striking event last week was the disintegration of Elon Musk’s Starship, which reminds us of the sharp rise of oligarchs as political operators (as highlighted by President Biden), and of how space is opening up as a new, competitive domain (Bond film Moonraker gave us a taste of this).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In particular, the entry of Musk into the operation of military innovation and procurement is a sign of a wave of aerospace and defence innovation, that is being pioneered by firms like Shield AI, Helsing AI and Anduril. As a sample of the thinking behind this innovations, one idea that was put to me recently is to replace fighter jets with hypersonic rockets that carry and deploy drones to the battlefield. Of course, the trouble with most of these technologies is that they are unmanned, leaving little room for Bond like characters to distinguish themselves.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A final element worth mentioning is geopolitical power. Britain is a much less consequential player geopolitically than it was in the 1950’s, but it still retains a seat on the UN Security Council for instance. The trouble is that many of the institutional reference points of the Fleming era are losing their lustre, and risk being replaced by an entirely new set of institutions, and we could speculate that in the future we will see the development of a World Cyber Police, an AI led World AI Safety Institute and an authority to police genetic editing and DNA hacking, all of which might feature in future Bond plots.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;James Bond may be on hold as a cinematic experience, but I wonder if the next Bond movie should be called ‘No Time for Tariffs’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Goldeneye

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning January 13th, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our full investment brief 📽️:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/Rl4VjRCiCeQ?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ It’s the start of Q4 reporting this week and JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Blackrock lead the way reporting their Q4 earnings on the 15th. The S&amp;amp;P 500 financials sector rose over 26% in 2024 as banks continue to benefit from higher interest rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ UK inflation and GDP data will be released on the 15th and 16th respectively. Current UK inflation stands at 2.6% and is expected to rise to 2.7% due to higher energy prices and increased Christmas spending.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ US inflation data for December will be released on the 15th and the headline rate is expected to rise 0.1% to 2.8%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Increased demand from China, lower US inventories and continued supply cuts from OPEC+ along with increased winter fuel demand has pushed oil prices to their highest level in over 3 months. YTD WTI crude is up 6.7% at $77.27 p/b.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 13th January

&lt;p&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio Wealth Management in conversation with John Daly, The Irish Examiner. Mike talks about how despite the many challenges Ireland faces, most notably inflation, the country is still very competitive compared to many other European countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“If I had to pick one way in which Ireland is different to other countries, I would say that while it is an old country, it has a young society and younger economy, in terms of structural development,” he says, referencing Joe Lee’s book on Irish history, which speaks of a long history of economic underachievement.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“I illustrate this to people with a chart of Irish GDP compared to that of Britain, starting in 1800 up to today. What it shows is a very long period of economic underdevelopment, right up to 1990, when the Berlin wall fell, globalisation kicked off and Ireland rode its coattails.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;Since then, Ireland has become a wealthy country, but the fact that it has happened quickly, and in a boom-and-bust style, means that the investment infrastructure and culture of infrastructure that you might find in older economies — from Sweden to France — is not yet there.”&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While personal wealth has grown significantly, with the number of people with net assets of over €1m having doubled in the last decade, Ireland is under-served in terms of wealth management advice.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;“As a trusted wealth adviser, Unio’s goal is to move our clients from being passive wealth holders to active wealth builders.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;In this context, Ireland has a lot of upsides because we are at the beginning of a generational transfer in wealth, one that hopefully becomes more meaningful in the ways it can help Irish firms to grow. The challenge is to get policymakers to take a very fresh look at the way investment works in Ireland,” he adds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Challenges facing Ireland&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Looking at the more significant challenges facing Ireland in the future, his instinct is to look beyond 2025. “I think the biggest economic issue will be inflation — and to focus on reshaping our economic model so that it enables Ireland to advance in terms of economic sophistication and as a society. We need a longer-term investment model, more Irish growth companies and a complete overhaul of infrastructure.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The issue Ireland faces is not a lack of money, but a lack of know-how in planning and executing infrastructure projects — which is something other peer countries like Denmark and Sweden have.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland has done very well from globalisation, but he points out this is changing fast: “As the ‘tide goes out’, Ireland is being exposed in terms of its lack of defence and security capabilities and a total absence of geopolitical and security alertness in our political class.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;It worries me that, in the same way, Ireland was unprepared for the 2008 economic collapse, we are similarly unprepared for a rougher, chaotic world order.”&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The investment landscape is profoundly influenced by both global and local politics, he says, where diplomatic relations, regional conflicts and political stability all shape investor sentiment and market dynamics.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“At Unio, understanding this interplay is key to navigating financial markets and helping clients maximise their financial lives and futures.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Given how 2024 delivered political and economic turbulence to the eurozone, with its largest economies, Germany and France, facing significant challenges, Mike O’Sullivan takes an optimistic view.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“It seems to me that, in a volatile way, the eurozone has become stronger institutionally through every crisis that has befallen it — Brexit and covid being the latest examples.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;However, across the EU, France and Germany are ‘unwell’ economically, but there is an important power shift to the east, notably the Baltic states and Poland, and Spain is growing strongly.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;I would say that the one element of the European debate that is not felt in Ireland is the need to prepare industry, the technology sector and militaries for conflict with Russia. Denmark, for example, has just added €5bn to its military budget.”&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Global uncertainty&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With incoming US president Donald Trump taking office on January 20, and general anticipation of more global uncertainty, Ireland’s position is better than that of many of our EU neighbours.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In some respects, it is too late to worry — we have known for some time that the economy is over-reliant on foreign direct investment, but policy has not reacted to this. Having said that, those multinationals are deeply embedded in our economy, so a sudden exit is unlikely.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;In addition, in other ways, Ireland is still a very competitive economy compared to many EU neighbours,” he says.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“I think the recent election was a good example of how grounded and local Irish politics is, and that is a good thing. There are other elements of Irish democracy — like the citizens&#39; assembly — that are also admirable. Yet, lower turnout is a worry, as is the impact of social media on public life and the quality of political debate across the world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;The other element that needs to be balanced is that our political system rewards politicians for focusing too much on local issues, often to the detriment of the ‘bigger picture’.&quot;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While maintaining continued contact with his native Cork, Mike readily admits that living in the ‘City of Light’ does have its moments.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“It’s a wonderful place to live. We are right in the city centre so have witnessed many of the events that define Paris — including the fire at Notre Dame and the Olympics. The city is thriving and very liveable.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we help high earners achieve their full financial potential. Using our proprietary wealth planning framework we work with our clients to plan their future and importantly, how to fund it. If you would like to speak to a Unio Wealth Management adviser, visit&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Let&#39;s Talk | Unio Wealth Management&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-41550316.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This is an excerpt from an article that appeared in The Irish Examiner, January 10th, 2025&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Ireland’s position is better than that of many of our EU neighbours

&lt;p&gt;We spent a memorable New Year’s Eve on Dursey Island, one of the more remote parts of Europe, whose only point of access to the Irish mainland is by ‘Ireland’s only cable car’, where the principal safety device is a bottle of holy water. In 1602, Dursey was the scene of the massacre of some of the O’Sullivan clan. Some six hundred years before that, it was a staging post for the Vikings.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I am tempted to think that had the Vikings stayed the O’Sullivans could have escaped the slaughter of the Siege of Dunboy, but then again, always optimistic, I contend myself that Dursey – unlike the other Viking island (Greenland) will not attract the attention of the US Navy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My intention this year is to be as least distracted as possible by the geopolitical strategizing of President Trump, but in the context of a far more ideological cabinet, his thoughts have consequences – not least for how they will encourage the enemies of America and the ‘west’ to behave.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For investors, political and geopolitical risks will likely play a much greater role in developed market asset returns than in any time over the past forty years, and the market reaction to Donald Trump’s victory offers them a wonderful opportunity to take a contrarian view and ‘spend American exceptionalism’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To explain what I mean by that, our starting point in 2025 is that an array of US assets trade at very high levels. Indeed, to recap a phrase I used in December markets are starting 2025 from the ‘wrong place’ in the sense that an enormous amount of capital is tied up in assets (the top ‘7’ technology firms, the dollar, corporate bonds) that trade at all time lofty valuations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For instance, Bank of America estimates that the dollar is the most expensive that it has been since the early nineties, and valuations for US stocks are close to the highest levels they have reached since the late 1990’s. The top fifteen companies in the US are now worth the same as Chinese and European equity markets together.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Added to that, quite a few assets have exploded in value because of their proximity to Donald Trump – notably the crypto eco-system and Tesla (which has added USD 850bn in market value around the time of the election, an amount equal to the value of its ten nearest competitors).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is not yet a bubble in the broad US market – many segments such as value stocks (high dividend companies) and small companies have not performed, but there is sufficient capital held in very expensive dollar denominated assets that it demands the attention and action of investors.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Market analysts do not appear worried – in the time-honoured fashion the major investment houses have released their year ahead forecasts, which suspiciously all cluster around the 10% market, and equally suspiciously no investment house is forecasting a negative year for US stocks. This collective conclusion must have required great analytical power because an independent re-running of these same models points to flat or negative returns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, investors should take advantage of expensive dollar assets and diversify abroad.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;They may be convinced to do so by two developments. The first is the collapse in long term US bonds since the Federal Reserve launched into a series of rate cuts from September onwards. In effect the bond market is signalling that it sees a resurgence of inflation ahead, and it is also likely flagging that the credit worthiness of the US may be deteriorating (in the sense that there is little prospect of the budget deficit and government debt being pared back).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Related to this, the second Trump administration begins in a much worse fiscal place as the first Trump government did in 2016. In the period 1960 to 2016 (with the exception of the Vietnam War) the US budget deficit has always followed the tempo of the business cycle (as proxied by unemployment).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That is to say that the budget deficit shrunk when the economy was strong (low unemployment) and it grew when the government spent more to cushion the effects of recession (high unemployment).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Today, we have the opposite – unemployment is low and the budget deficit is very high. This implies three risks – that too much spending in a ‘hot’ economy creates inflation, that there won&#39;t be any money left to ‘rescue’ an eventual recession, and that the rising deficit implies rising debt, which bond markets don’t like.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;None of these risks, and rising bond yields, appear to worry the US equity and corporate bond market, but they should. A contrarian view might look to sell expensive dollar denominated assets and allocate overseas.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So my message to start the year is – don’t invade Denmark, buy its equity market.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Contrarians and Controversialists

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View, our weekly investments brief covering global markets and macro news.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our full investment brief📽️ below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/75LJY9eyaSQ?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first full trading week of the new year will be keenly watched given the tumultuous Christmas period for markets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ Turkey&#39;s central bank announced it’s first rate cut since Feb 2023, reducing it’s key rate from 50% to 47.5%&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ The release of the FOMC Minutes on the 8th could offer more detail on the Federal Reserve’s outlook for 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ EU inflation rate data will be released on the 7th along with an update on European unemployment rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ In the US jobs data will be front and centre as there will be updates on JOLTs Job Openings (7th), Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate (both the 10th).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, Week Beginning 6th January

&lt;p&gt;The December Global Macro Council Outlook highlights four broad themes for 2025: portfolio agility, fiscal policy after elections, trade wars influencing a multipolar world, and risks such as a potential recession in China. Europe is shifting towards strategic autonomy, presenting new private investment opportunities in sectors like space, quantum, and defence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-December-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more in this month&#39;s Outlook.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Four Pillars for 2025

&lt;p&gt;I filed my article early this week for two reasons. On Friday morning, we headed to Cork for holidays and I attach a link with a short list of&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeosullivan/2024/12/17/what-books-to-read-for-christmas/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;suggested Christmas reading&lt;/a&gt;, and hope you have a chance to get to the bookshop (always a more rewarding experience than buying online).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Granted that it is year end, I am often caught up in the swirl of ‘2025’ prognostications on the economy and politics, and while not a great fan of short-term forecasting, I thought I would lay out a few themes that will condition markets and economies into 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;I wouldn’t start from here.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial markets – which are dominated by US equities (over 65% of world market cap), are starting 2025 from a vertiginous place.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Retail investor surveys have never been so optimistic, stock market concentration is at levels last seen in 1929 (the top ten stocks account for 40% of the market) and valuations are stratospheric (a simple measure, the price to earnings ratio, has only been higher in 2020 and 2001). In that respect, many investors might pose the question ‘when is the crash?’. My sense is that absent a damaging trade and supply chain war between the US and China in Q1, we will likely see a very meaningful rotation from US equities to cheaper markets in parts of Asia, but more so Europe (the election of Friedrich Merz as German Chancellor in late February might be the catalyst for this).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;The Plaza Problem&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A further reason for this is the strength of the dollar, which makes foreign assets cheaper for US investors. Following the election of Donald Trump, a range of key currencies have weakened noticeably – the yen, Brazil’s real, the Indian rupee, renminbi and the euro. Whilst the new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will see the benefits of a strong dollar, the weakness of ‘foreign’ currencies is anathema to the worldview of Donal Trump, who dreams of another Plaza Accord (a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’) that might reset the competitiveness of the dollar.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The problem with this view, as we head into 2025, is that the weakness of Asian currencies and the euro, relative to the dollar, is driven largely by diverging economic performance. In that context, a Trump administration that runs the economy ‘hot’ risks postponing a grand currency accord. It also risks a resurgence in inflation (and bond yields), which I suspect will be a story for next summer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;China – Japan or Greece?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The one factor that could temper inflation is China, a very large political economy that we know increasingly less about. My bet is that commentators will spend much of 2025 debating whether China is ‘Japan’ or ‘Greece’, in the sense of how the deleveraging of its economy materialises. China will become the risk factor for 2025 – economically, geopolitically and commercially in the way it will respond to the onset of tariffs from Washington.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite a recent, aggressive financial stimulus, the Chinese economy is gripped by deflation – in house prices, activity and a fall in entrepreneurial activity. Underlying this is a generalized demand problem.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This year’s plenum on economic policy has not done much to repair the structural creaking of the economy and the worry is that internal ‘reform’ (i.e. a political crackdown) further saps the willingness of entrepreneurs to invest, and equally that Xi is shaping China in the form of a more closed state, that curbs the will of those inside, adopts a singularly selfish approach to those outside, and relies on several great strides in technological industrialisation for the prolongation of the ‘China Dream’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The contradiction here, and specifically between the three strands to emerge from the plenum, is that in its policy making and economy China needs innovation but is creating a socio-political system that smothers it.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this respect, the third plenum and the recent liquidity boost missed a trick in not outlining a Keynesian style stimulus for the economy (or even longer-run structural one). The property market is slowing, entrepreneurs are very cautious, and the risks associated with local government debt are rising.&amp;nbsp;While China has so far managed to duck a major recession, the government may have become too complacent about the deleveraging process, and the possibility that this accelerates downwards, dramatically so as was the case for Greece, or tortuously as was the case for Japan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Bond markets – suffering the hangover from elections&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As China slows, the key variable to watch is the Chinese long bond yield, which has been compressing lower in recent months as investors take a dim view of the economy. Elsewhere, there should be plenty of action across bond markets, driven by the fiscal aftershock of elections across the world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We still have a general election in Japan and the prospect of an election in Germany next February (23rd). In the cases of the US, UK and France, elections have seen bond yields rise in the context of near record indebtedness and very large deficits.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that respect, the fiscal hangover begins. Governments across regions will find themselves reined in by bond markets and under pressure to curb spending and in some cases to raise taxes. This pressure alone may eventually tilt economic policy more towards supply side changes, and also change the kinds of issues that politicians focus on such as immigration and identity politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Fiscal rectitude may only come to reign after a few bond market tantrums. There are two countries in particular worth watching – France and the US. First, the French budget process has been very drawn out, and with France having to cut its deficit in half over the next three years, it is unlikely that France’s political class, not to mention its public, are ready for deeper austerity. In that way, higher French bond yields will be a fixture in markets and might periodically push much higher.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The other market to watch is the US bond market, which in 2025 may become the limiting factor for equity and other riskier assets. Since the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, bond yields have risen and remain stubbornly high. With growth in the US economy strong, and other economies steadying, the risk factor is that inflation rises (though lower oil prices and deflation from China can offset this), driving bond yields higher, or that the desire of the Trump administration to run the economy ‘hot’ provokes a rise in yields. In this sense, the bond market may become Trump’s nemesis. The market reaction to this week’s Fed meeting is a sign of things to come.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This post is a little longer than normal and am now going to ‘down pens’ till you hear from me again on January 12th, when I will focus on some of the risks and potential surprises for 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a lovely Christmas and a very prosperous new year,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

2025 - The Hangover

&lt;p&gt;The New Year is an ideal time to establish healthy money habits and to put yourself on a sound financial path.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning&lt;/strong&gt; sets out some simple financial planning tips to get your finances into shape so you can spend more time enjoying the things you love and less time worrying about your money.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Think about your life &amp;amp; financial goals&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Write down your short-term, medium term and long-term life goals along with a timeline for achieving them. Do these goals require financial funding? We often think about when we hope to retire and what that might look like however, along the way there are likely to be other life events and goals you would like to work towards.&amp;nbsp;This could include clearing your mortgage in a particular timeframe or saving for your children’s education.&amp;nbsp;Focusing on your financial goals will help you build a financial plan and with a plan you have a better chance of success!&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Create a budget &amp;amp; track your spending&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 50-30-20 rule is a good place to start: a budgeting approach that allocates&amp;nbsp;50% of your income to needs, 30% to wants, and 20% to savings. You can build your wealth while prioritising spending on things that matter to you. With a better understanding of where your money is going often comes the availability of extra disposable income, allowing you to invest the money or use it in other ways to improve your financial wellbeing.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;3.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Effectively use any surplus cash&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once you have a handle on your personal finances, consider how you can make your money work for you and invest to achieve your goals. If you already have a pension in place, are you making the most of it? A work-based pension is effectively free money from your employer and your pension fund continues to provide a tax efficient way to save for your future.&amp;nbsp;Think about using any surplus cash to increase your AVCs. The maximum contribution &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/are-you-maximising-your-pension-contributions&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;on which you can receive income tax relief is determined by your age.&lt;/a&gt; Every extra €100 that you save to your pension is costing you as little as €60* once tax relief is considered. What about your savings? The bulk of savings in Ireland lies in low-yielding easy-to-access bank accounts. It may be time to consider building an investment portfolio that can grow that pot.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;4.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Empower yourself&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Understanding your finances is empowering and drives sound choices when it comes to making big financial decisions such as moving house or investing in a holiday home. We aren’t taught about personal finances in school. Most of us learn about money when we start dealing with bills and mortgages. A good place to start is to read the business pages at the weekend or check out a good finance podcast. Key to this however is a good relationship with your financial adviser, someone in your corner who you can ask questions and who understands your needs and goals. They will be able to explain why they’re making certain decisions with your money and how this affects you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;5.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;Seek advice&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My final tip is to seek expert “advice”. Generally, people who work with a quality financial planning professional enjoy more financial confidence and experience less financial stress. An adviser works with you to help determine exactly what your financial goals are, talks you through your options and provides a personalised financial plan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The right adviser will help coordinate all aspects of your financial life so you can focus on what’s most important to you and your family.&amp;nbsp;It’s an ongoing relationship built on trust and, if done correctly, your adviser will become an integral part of your life, your counsel for financial decisions. You can take comfort knowing that they will have the time, attention, and expertise to address every aspect of your finances while you focus on living.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This plan is your financial blueprint for life, it’s a living thing and we see its creation and ongoing assessment as a significant responsibility. Expert guidance will help steer you in the right direction. Life can throw curve balls and revisiting and updating your plan is paramount to its success.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;*This figure is based on marginal tax relief of 40%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Wealth Management&lt;/strong&gt;, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/1ecefqpb45/vqdcidiuenj1wctetzt8n4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=6&amp;amp;p=64910325&amp;amp;t=33457561__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nfZp5_J4dNquUJWjgK06GKZUAVcTx3BtsZ-MUVNXTr8w1_uqlPWliA8FxUcAxkdQ6PRrdSgbD-BUj0Mcdw$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Get Your Finances in Shape for 2025 and Beyond.

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A few weeks ago, it would have been inconceivable to most foreign policy experts that Israeli aircraft could bomb Syria at will with their tanks apparently in shooting distance of Damascus, all the while a new Islamist regime installed itself there. This latest turn in the topsy turvy geopolitical world gives a glimpse of some of the regime shifts to come and the fragility of erstwhile brutal, long lasting dictatorships.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I absorbed the implications of the event in Abu Dhabi, which in terms of its success and trajectory, underlines the view of some that there are ‘two middle easts’.&amp;nbsp;At the same time, Abu Dhabi has risen to a point of influence that it will be the lodestar in building the economic structure of the region once a viable peace plan for Israel/Palestine has been found.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The surprise departure of Bashir al-Assad will likely accelerate the reordering of the region and give food for thought to other ‘strongmen’. It may eventually be that a gang of them ends up living out of the Ritz Carlton in Moscow.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Indeed, &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/688225__;!!O22_8FOSssc!ms1jRbEU0XGArti1murXZun3TGrhUF5t3F-s8dKZGzUaJx71NxVWh1ZA98XMpVNjyf_60szb_fjLLilbq0uiCUF8$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;a couple of academics&lt;/a&gt; have tracked the flight of deposed dictators and state that&amp;nbsp;‘&lt;em&gt;we find that dictators are more likely to go into exile in states that are close neighbors, have hosted other dictators in the past, are militarily powerful, and possess colonial links, formal alliances, and economic ties. By contrast, fleeing dictators tend to avoid democratic states and countries experiencing civil conflict’&lt;/em&gt;. More specifically, in Europe the top three destinations for dictators are Russia, the UK and France!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Despite Assad’s fall, Syria itself is not out of the woods – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham may be media sensitive, but they are also deadly, conservative Islamists. They have manifestly been given a firm helping hand by Turkey, which is re-establishing itself as a regional power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Turkish foreign policy is an enigma, wrapped in a mystery. In the past I have written how, in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, many countries in north Africa wanted to follow the ‘Turkish model’ of development. Since then, Recep Erdogan has enfeebled the country’s institutions and its economic backbone and has turned a foreign policy that used to be based on ‘no trouble with neigbours’ to one of ‘trouble with neighbours’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;However, Erodgan is a key player now – especially in terms of how he negotiates Russia’s military withdrawal. There remain many open questions, notably how the fall of Syria further weakens Iran and what implications this has for Iraq. Larger regional countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia will welcome the toppling of Assad and the further undermining of Iran, but now have to face up to the prospect of a regional peace deal where the strength of their support for Palestine will be tested.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If in 2025 a peace deal is struck that keeps in place the two-state formula, then the prospect of a regional economic recovery, led by the UAE (or Abu Dubai as some call it), may not be far off.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Visits to ministries, financial institutions (including Abu Dhabi Finance Week) and infrastructure players, with Prof. Afshin Molavi and several other economists and writers, gave a sense of the ambition of the region.&amp;nbsp;In particular compared to previous visits to the region, two things stood out as ‘new developments’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is a growing sense of independence on the part of the UAE to go its own way in terms of how it makes policy (as opposed to being a policy taker from the US and the EU). This is evident in finance, infrastructure, labour markets and trade. On trade specifically, the UAE has to be geopolitically ambidextrous in how it builds relationships with the US and China, though when it comes to technology, the sense is that it is very much plugged into America.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second element worth commenting on is the idea of ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Working-with-Gulf-states-India-can-build-a-new-center-of-power__;!!O22_8FOSssc!ms1jRbEU0XGArti1murXZun3TGrhUF5t3F-s8dKZGzUaJx71NxVWh1ZA98XMpVNjyf_60szb_fjLLilbq7WGtinb$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Fourth Pole’&lt;/a&gt;. I have written on this in the last year, and the idea is that in a multipolar world made up of three ‘poles’ (US, EU and China) there is room for a fourth pole made up of India, the Gulf States and other players across the ‘region’ (which we could define as those countries&amp;nbsp;a&amp;nbsp;five hours&amp;nbsp;flight&amp;nbsp;away from the&amp;nbsp;UAE,&amp;nbsp;which includes some 2.4 billion people across Asia, Africa, Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The notion of the ‘Fourth Pole’ is gathering pace around the very close relationship between the UAE and India (the very popular Hindu Temple in Abu Dhabi is just one sign), and the web of trade, finance and infrastructure deals they are engaging in across the region. This relationship may not ultimately become as deep as that of the EU countries, but it is beginning to look like a modern version of the ‘Coal and Steel’ community. The risk however, is that they overbuild capacity in the face of a forthcoming economic shock or recession.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a final word, the best indication that I had that the UAE is feeling both confident and more independent is that some&amp;nbsp;well-connected government advisors&amp;nbsp;have come up with an acronym for the west – W.E.N.A (Western Europe and North America)!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

W.E.N.A

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio View for the week beginning December 9th, our weekly investments brief covering global markets and macro news.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Several major events impacted financial markets last week.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The French government collapse tested bond markets, and attempts to enforce martial law in South Korea were rejected.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The week concluded with the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad&#39;s government.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-This week, watch for US inflation data on the 11th (current rate at 2.6%) and the ECB’s interest rate decision on the 12th (expected cut of at least 25bps from 3.4%).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-In stock news, Oracle Corp’s Q2 earnings release is today (YTD stock rise of 84.2%). Look out for Microsoft’s AGM tomorrow and Adobe’s Q4 earnings on the 11th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our full brief below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/Kg_tNjtMYdM?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: https://unio.ie/lets-talk.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 9th December 2024

&lt;p&gt;Monday morning started with an early sprint from Baker St to Marylebone train station in London, passing close to 221b Baker St, the fabled home of Sherlock Holmes. However, Holmes was not on my mind, but rather his nemesis, Professor James Moriarty.&amp;nbsp;I was on my way to a seminar on the future of crime (especially as it concerned robots and social robots) organized by the excellent team at UCL’s Dawes Centre for Future Crime.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The rumour is that Conan Doyle based the character of Moriarty on George Boole, Professor of Maths at University College Cork from 1849 until 1864 (disappointingly his former home on Grenville Place is in a state of dereliction). Boole, one of the great mathematicians, created Boolean algebra which laid the foundations for computer language and is this the structure around which scientists use machines to mimic and ‘improve’ on human behaviour. To that end, Moriarty and the idea of the ‘future of crime’ should be of all the more interest to us in an AI driven world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whilst many serious crimes are in abeyance – murder rates in small open democracies (Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Ireland for instance) are very low, and those in the large EU economies – France, Germany, the UK and Italy trend below 1 per 100,000 (the USA is seven times higher), new forms of crime are on the rise, many of them driven by technology. Mobile phones and social media have become an entirely new vector for crime in terms of the theft of passwords, online bank details, identity theft and the harassment and abuse of people online. Similarly, crypto currencies are the conduit for much criminal activity, and it is believed that confiscations have made the FBI the biggest holder of bitcoin. In addition, the metaverse has opened up an entirely new legal space, where injuries and attacks carried out in an apparently unreal world can have consequences in the real world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, the issue at stake at the Dawe’s Centre seminar was whether socially intelligent robots can create new forms of crime, that are not yet covered by legal frameworks and for which countermeasures have not been conceived.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is a terrifying prospect – robots could not only be primed to deliver drugs or explosives but imagine the consequences of robot bodyguards and guard-dogs who take it upon themselves to attack specific targets. In many cases, the prosecution of an assault by a robot would likely follow the logic of charging the owner of a dog (Britain’s Princess Anne was famously prosecuted when her pitbull ‘Dotty’, bit two children). On a more mundane basis, robots increasingly interact with vulnerable humans – the lonely, the elderly and for instance autistic children, and while these interactions are very helpful, they also open up scope for abuse. In time the growing prevalence of sex robots will cause all sorts of controversies.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, in cases where the robot acts intelligently and autonomously, the law is not clear and frameworks on AI offer only meagre guidance. Robert Harris’ book ‘The Fear Index’ is a good illustration of what might occur when an intelligence ‘bot’ takes over a critical infrastructure, and the use of AI on the battlefield is chilling in its ruthlessness.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Heavy duty robots also permit the exploration, surveillance and protection of faraway places (the deep sea, space and remote parts of the earth) though at the same time they permit mischief by various actors such as attacks on critical marine infrastructure.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It may well be that, as in the case of driverless cars, socially intelligent robots are less dangerous than humans, though the notion itself of criminal robots is cause for concern. For the time being, many of the impetuses to the ‘future of crime’ are human factors. Some of them relate to changes in wealth – such as the rise of powerful oligarchs, and a rich ultra-high net worth class of people who on one hand are targets for crime and on the other hand have the means to dominate others and push their own visions of what society should look like. We may see more of this type of behaviour in coming years.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then, we really get into ‘Moriarty’ territory when states begin to collaborate with individuals and gangs, as is the case with Russia for instance. States have access to intelligent and often lethal robots and can enable organized criminals to use them – it is not impossible that gangs might start to use drones in contract killings. The other, related area that is increasingly relevant here is corporate intelligence and security (Lewis Sage-Passant’s book on this topic is very good) where many corporate security teams have to combat hacking and other attacks by robots, from criminal gangs, and as was sadly demonstrated in New York last week, assassins.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If Moriarty existed today, and perhaps he does, corporates as well as governments might be his preferred targets, and he would very likely equip himself with robotic henchmen (and women) who could subvert the human world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The question is, what would Sherlock do?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Moriarty

&lt;p&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio Wealth Management writes about how the investment landscape is profoundly influenced by global and local politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In today’s interconnected world, the investment landscape is profoundly influenced by both global and local politics. From international trade agreements and diplomatic relations to regional conflicts and political stability, these factors play a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment and market dynamics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, understanding this interplay is crucial for navigating the complexities of financial markets and helping our clients maximise their financial lives and potential futures.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland is interesting in that it continues to be a very open economy – exposed to global forces, but that has so far proven its resilience. We are a democratic outlier. Unlike so many other countries in this ‘year of elections’ there will be fundamentally little change in the governance of the state. At the time of writing, it looks like Fine Gael and Fianna Fail will continue in power, supported either by Labour or a more disparate group of independents. Amidst low turnout, the other trend is the evolution of the political system in terms of a block of four or more parties on the left, and a relatively high number of independents. If Ireland demonstrates an outward form of stability, the world around it is changing in a way not seen since the early 1990′s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Political debate in Europe is dominated by issues that have made no imprint on the election campaign in Ireland – defence and security with a focus on the threat to Europe from Russia, and increasingly the role of China as a bad actor, the need to boost investment in ‘strategic autonomy’ sectors (from AI to quantum to defence ‘deep’ tech). Then, the really significant change is the more mercantilist stance that America will take to the rest of the world, and the risks to the rules based international system that has been cultivated by so many American presidents. In this respect, like many other countries Ireland risks a diplomatic crash. By this I mean that a host of countries have invested diplomatically, or in terms of soft power, in institutions, partnerships and causes. The acceleration of a multipolar world by the second Trump presidency will crash the value of many of these diplomatic investments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An example might be the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and the US, and indeed the close relationship between Ireland and the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;More broadly Ireland has, correctly, invested heavily in the UN and the rules-based order. Some of the pillars of this order, like the World Trade Organisation – effectively built by an Irishman (Peter Sutherland) – are in a state of dereliction. It may well be the case that the UN ceases to be effective in dispute resolution between states, world health policy and great power coordination.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, together with Spain and Norway, Ireland has spent significant geopolitical capital supporting Palestine (all three countries recognised Palestine as a state). Here, it cannot be ruled out that a grand peace deal is made in the Middle East, between Israel, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, whose goal is to create greater investment and commercial flows between these countries and strategically disable Iran, but whose outcome is to render the ‘two-state’ solution unachievable. This new, harsh reality would leave the humanitarian-led foreign policies of many European countries well ‘off-side’, compared to the stance of the Trump administration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Economically, the great challenge will come from the spill-over effects of the Trump administration. His key proposed appointments – notably Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio as Treasury Secretary and Secretary of State, would not be out of place in any of the Republican administrations of the past fifty years, and Bessent in particular has a large stock of credibility on Wall Street and the wider economics community. His personal view of tariffs is that they are a negotiating tactic, best deployed to shape trading and financial relations with other countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While there is great concern over the potential impact of tariffs on Ireland, there may be two reasons to be less pessimistic. First, the Trump administration will cause enormous macroeconomic and diplomatic volatility if it imposes tariffs on allies and competitors at the same time. If his ultimate objective is to disable China as an economic power, he may well need to have allied economies like South Korea, Japan and the EU onside. Second, in many cases, American multinationals are deeply embedded in the Irish economy, which makes a retracement of foreign direct investment difficult. Still, the inevitable tariff negotiation between the EU and the US will entail close solidarity between EU nations, and its implications could well extend to the forthcoming debate on EU defence spending (an EU missile defence shield will cost up to Eur 500bn).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The understated risk to the rest of the world of the Trump economic policy package is that the White House tries to run the economy ‘hot’, and in turn this produces another phase of inflation, and rising interest rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then in terms of domestic fiscal policy, the central concern must be the effectiveness of state spending. While optically, Ireland has a strong fiscal position, it in effect has large unfunded liabilities to meet in terms of bringing its defence infrastructure up to the level of peer states like Denmark and Norway, and in terms of the long-term capital required to offset the impact of climate change on land and infrastructure (flooding in Spain is a reminder). Alongside this is the need to better fund universities and create centres of excellence in research.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It could be hoped that the fiscal debate will shift from the quantum of money that the government needs to deploy on infrastructure and housing, to the method by which these assets are built. If Ireland is richer (per capita) than most of its European peers, it lacks institutionalised know-how in infrastructure – from building apartments like the Austrians, to railways like the French and hospitals like the Swiss. In that respect, the post-election period offers a chance to stop and take stock of what has been done on infrastructure so far and seek the expertise of other EU countries for what needs to be built for the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An important element here is investment, and in time the State will need to think about how to better deploy Irish pension capital in infrastructure, agriculture and homegrown technology firms. Alongside this is the need to build investment infrastructure in the sense of cautiously opening up access to education and portfolio platforms so that households can build long-term investments, a topic that is naturally close to Unio. We flag that there is growing momentum in a ‘savings and investment’ union in Europe, and Ireland should be at the forefront of this. As we head into 2025, Ireland is an oasis of political stability in a chaotic world. It should use this opportunity to build the capabilities it will need in this fast-changing environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we help high earners achieve their full financial potential. Using our proprietary wealth planning framework we work with our clients to plan their future and importantly, how to fund it. If you would like to speak to a Unio Wealth Management adviser, visit &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Let&#39;s Talk | Unio Wealth Management&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishtimes.com/advertising-feature/2024/12/06/ireland-an-outlier-in-a-turbulent-world/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This article appeared in The Irish Times, December 6th, 2024.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Irish Times: Ireland, an outlier in a turbulent world?

&lt;p&gt;3 Mins Read&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stephen McEntee, private client adviser, Unio Wealth Management&#39;s Wealth &amp;amp; Family Office, writes about the risks and strategies associated with investing post-retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Investing post-retirement&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once you have made the transition to retirement and key considerations such as your income requirements and lifestyle needs have been explored in detail; the focus quickly moves to how and where your accumulated pension funds should be invested.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are clearly risks when you are funding a pension, in the ‘fund accumulation’ stage. There are also risks when you move to retirement, or the ‘decumulation’ stage, but they are very different.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sequence of Returns Risk is the risk that the timing of market returns impact retirement savings. For retirees, a market downturn early in retirement can deplete a portfolio faster than expected, even with strong long-term returns. This article explains why this risk matters and offers strategies to protect your retirement income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Risks with Retirement Income &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The risks specific to you as a post-retirement investor should be reflected in the investment portfolio within your post-retirement pension fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, when you are making regular withdrawals from an investment – as you will be doing in retirement – your selected investment portfolio should be constructed with Sequencing Risk in mind. Sequencing Risk is created by the sequence in which investment returns are generated, and the timing of withdrawals from the fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Understanding Sequence of Returns Risk&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To understand the effect of sequence of investment returns, consider the below two scenarios of five-year market returns:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;table border=&quot;0&quot; style=&quot;width: 690pt;&quot; width=&quot;920&quot;&gt;
 &lt;tbody&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Scenario A Returns&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Scenario B Returns&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;Year 1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;25%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;-20%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Year 2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;15%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;-5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;-5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;15%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;-20%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;25%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
 &lt;/tbody&gt;
&lt;/table&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The returns are identical in both the above scenarios, but in reverse order. In a ‘decumulating’ fund where you are making withdrawals, the order of the returns makes a significant impact on the value at the end of the five-year period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Scenario A, €100,000 invested with €10,000 withdrawals each year would leave residual capital value of €70,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Scenario B, the same investment amount and withdrawals would leave a residual capital value of €47,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, if you experience a poor initial sequence of returns immediately after retirement and make withdrawals during this period (as you may be obliged to do in a post-retirement pension); you effectively crystallise some losses. This can be difficult to recover from as you will continue to make withdrawals each year in retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Mitigating Risk &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are several strategies that can be employed to manage portfolios more effectively and reduce the impact of market downturns on retirement income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An important tool in trying to reduce the fund volatility you experience is to invest in a wide range of assets, known as diversification. Your portfolio should benefit from an appropriate level of diversification, both across assets classes, like shares, property and bonds, and within each asset class. You can also diversify geographically and across industries, and between different fund managers – reducing the risk of overreliance on any one fund manager.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another common strategy for post-retirement clients is to invest in a portfolio with a clear focus on income producing assets. In general terms, income paying assets tend to be more stable than the average when markets are volatile. In addition to this, the ability to take some or all your pension withdrawals from income generated within the fund means that the investments themselves are left mainly intact. This allows you to minimise the degree to which you crystallise losses when the fund falls in any particular year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Finally, when considering a fund on which you are somewhat dependent on for income in retirement, inflation risk should also be considered.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Investing your post-retirement fund in cash, or extremely low risk portfolios, reduces investment and sequencing risk, but increases the risk that the income you can expect from the fund will be worth less and less throughout your retirement in real terms.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This highlights the fundamental challenge to a post-retirement investor: no single type of risk should take precedent or be considered in isolation. Instead, all relevant risks should be considered in a balanced manner, and your expectations regarding your investment portfolio should involve not just an expected return over the long term, but also a good understanding of what your investor experience is likely to be over that period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stephen McEntee is a private client adviser in Unio Wealth Management&#39;s Wealth &amp;amp; Family Office. Stephen &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Stephen%20McEntee&amp;amp;segment=Independent%20Wealth%20and%20Family%20Office&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At &lt;strong&gt;Unio Wealth Management&lt;/strong&gt;, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/1ecefqpb45/vqdcidiuenj1wctetzt8n4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=6&amp;amp;p=64910325&amp;amp;t=33457561__;!!O22_8FOSssc!nfZp5_J4dNquUJWjgK06GKZUAVcTx3BtsZ-MUVNXTr8w1_uqlPWliA8FxUcAxkdQ6PRrdSgbD-BUj0Mcdw$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Preparing for Retirement

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning December 2nd, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch our brief in full:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/w1fm_aPXbH0?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Global equities had a mixed week, overall down -0.3%. Global bond yields fell across the board, led by the US with the 10-year Treasury dropping -0.23% to 4.19%&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Oil and gold prices dropped by 4.8% and 1.7% last week thanks to tensions easing in the Middle East.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Eurozone inflation rose to 2.3% in November, exceeding the target rate for first time in three months.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- In earnings news, companies reporting this week include: Salesforce, Marvell Technologies and, the Royal Bank of Canada.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 2nd December 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;US stock market valuations have only been as high as in 2001 and 2020, market concentration is more extreme than in the late 1920’s (the top ten companies now make up 38% of the market capitalization of the S&amp;amp;P 500 index), and money manager surveys show US households to be the most bullish on future returns from equities since the survey began in the early 1980’s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;So, given this precarious euphoria, when is the crash?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My response is that crashes come in unexpected places and times and, one idea that has not had much coverage but that might become current is the idea of a ‘diplomatic crash’. By this I mean that a host of countries have invested diplomatically, or in terms of soft power, in institutions, partnerships and causes. The acceleration of a multipolar world by the second Trump presidency will crash the value of many of these diplomatic investments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;An example might be the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and the US, the seeds of which were sown by Roosevelt and Churchill during the second world war (Churchill coined the term in 1946), and later cultivated by Thatcher/Reagan and then the Bushes and Clintons with both John Major and Tony Blair. Today, it is very hard to see any personal chemistry, or philosophical common ground between Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer. If the ‘special relationship’ were a stock or even a crypto coin, its value would be at a historic low.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In more detail, the idea of the ‘diplomacy crash’ came to me the night before I voted in Ireland’s general election. Ireland is a very quirky, even eccentric country from a geopolitical view in that unlike many other European countries there is close to no debate in Irish politics on defence and security, and its defence capability is miniscule compared to benchmark countries like Norway and Sweden.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context Ireland, like many other mid-ranking developed countries, is about to suffer a diplomatic crash. It has, correctly, invested heavily in the UN and the rules-based order. Some of the pillars of this order, like the World Trade Organisation – effectively built by an Irishman (Peter Sutherland) – are in a state of dereliction. It may well be the case that the UN ceases to be effective in dispute resolution between states, world health policy and great power coordination.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In addition, together with Spain and Norway, Ireland has spent significant geopolitical capital supporting Palestine (all three countries recently recognized Palestine as a state). Here, it cannot be ruled out that a grand peace deal is made in the Middle East, between Israel, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, whose goal is to create greater investment and commercial flows between these countries and strategically disable Iran, but whose outcome is to render the ‘two-state’ solution unachievable. This new, harsh reality would leave the humanitarian led foreign policies of many European countries well ‘off-side’, compared to the stance of the Trump administration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ireland is just an example here, and there are plenty of other crashes in diplomatic capital – Germany’s trade policy with China, and potentially Japan’s relationship with the USA, France’s relationship with Africa and in general the cultivation of the rules-based order by democracies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In finance, when a market crash occurs, investors become structurally risk averse, run for safe assets and generally retract positions. This might be the same in diplomacy. The risk then is a more unsure, less engaged diplomatic world, and worryingly one where the international rule of law is ignored.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In Europe, reflecting the lessons of the euro-zone financial crisis, this may imply that EU foreign policy becomes more consistent across countries (though perhaps not yet unified) and more focused (Katja Kallas is perhaps the most forceful foreign policy chief that the EU has had). In addition, new policy coalitions and leadership groups will form, notably so in the case of the Nordic and Baltic states on defence and immigration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The EU also needs to stop geopolitical hedging by its members. Hungary under Viktor Orban has become notoriously close to Russia, and whilst Serbia had tried to play both sides it seems more comfortable as a bona fide EU nation (it is an accession state).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Once Ireland’s election result is clear, the first task for its leaders may be to choose sides – solidarity with Europe and active participation in the EU defence effort,&amp;nbsp;or a singular, eccentric relationship with the Trump administration.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week, Mike.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Diplomacy Crash

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning November 25th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch our brief in full:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/1bffdIRXyic?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• It was a strong week for equities, supported in part by Nvidia&#39;s robust earnings. Nvidia continues to deliver with revenue up 94% from a year ago to $35.1bn.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• As earnings season wraps up, notable companies reporting this week include Zoom Technologies, Dell Technologies, and Workday Inc.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Zoom&#39;s stock has risen 24.1% this year, Dell&#39;s stock is up 92.8% YTD due to the AI transition, while Workday’s stock remains flat on the back of lower revenue forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Key macro events to watch this week are the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, the second estimate of US Q3 GDP, and Eurozone inflation data.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 25th November, 2024

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Act Now on Your Year End Company Pension Contribution&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The recent budget and Finance Act introduced changes to Personal Retirement Savings Accounts (PRSAs), including a cap on company contributions starting in 2025.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Until the end of 2024, employers can contribute unlimited amounts to an employee&#39;s PRSA. This is a great opportunity for businesses to make significant pension contributions without needing to increase taxable salaries.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, from January 2025, contributions will be limited to 100% of the employee&#39;s earnings.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Please get in touch to see how we can help you make the most of this opportunity before the window closes.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Changes to PRSAs&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This year’s budget and subsequent Finance Act presented changes for PRSAs and re-introduces a limit on company paid PRSA contributions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Until the end of 2024, there is no limit to the amount an employer can contribute to a PRSA for a company director or other employee.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Traditionally, a large pension contribution would mean the need for an individual to also have a large salary or an extensive employment period.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Currently, a business can contribute significantly to an employee’s pension fund without the need for the individual to draw a higher taxable salary or have long company service.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;When funding via a PRSA, the only real limitation currently is the tax efficient Standard Fund Threshold (SFT) limit of €2M.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From 1st January 2025, this will change, and employer contributions to PRSAs will be limited to 100% of the employee’s earnings.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The table below outlines some of the features of a PRSA and why it is currently such an attractive funding option.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCQMWZGFO3OZFBLO3LINDW5L6NFE?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Act Now on Your Year End Company Pension Contribution&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fy73&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCQMWZGFO3OZFBLO3LINDW5L6NFE&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Act Now on Your Year End Company Pension Contribution.JPG&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Funding for Spouses&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the case of spouses working in the same business, many companies fund only one pension for a couple.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are many advantages for putting two separate pensions in place – one for each spouse.&amp;nbsp;This is particularly advantageous where the couples pension funds will exceed €800,000. Funding individually, rather than a couple, will provide the opportunity for each spouse to take a tax-free pension lump sum.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Important Changes to PRSA Contributions

&lt;p&gt;3 Mins Read&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;David Moran, Director, Independent Wealth &amp;amp; Family Office, writes about the significant wealth transfer which will define the coming decades. The article discusses how high-net-worth individuals can protect and grow their wealth through diversified investments, tax efficiencies, and legacy planning. It also highlights the importance of navigating family dynamics and understanding differing goals across generations.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It will likely be no surprise to read that a significant transfer of wealth is underway in Ireland and beyond.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Across the developed world, the coming years will see trillions’ worth of investment and housing wealth move, primarily from the baby boomer generation to their children. This transfer of family wealth between generations will be a defining trend for the decades ahead. So, as a client seeking advice in passing on wealth efficiently, how might you begin that conversation with your adviser?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Wealth in Ireland&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Ireland, wealth has grown significantly over recent decades driven by economic development a thriving-tech sector, and a rising property market. Ireland is the 20th wealthiest country in the world, with an average wealth per capita of €250,000. Switzerland tops the list at €710,000 per capita.1&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Wealth as a Legacy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many high-net worth individuals and families focus on protecting their assets through diversified investments, tax efficiencies and legacy planning to secure wealth for future generations.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When it comes to advising a client, early meetings are primarily about building trust, recognising that wealth for some individuals represents not just financial success but a legacy with personal, emotional, and generational dimensions.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Navigating Family Dynamics&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sensitivity to these dynamics is critical; wealth serves as a foundation for opportunities, but it can also be a source of complexity, with differing goals across family members, particularly when it comes to more sensitive areas of discussion such as the provision of long-term care, Enduring Power of Attorney and, legacy giving need to be explored.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Different generations for example may have completely different views as to how assets should be invested. A younger family member may wish to invest to grow the assets, while the older generation might place more emphasis on protecting the wealth they have spent a lifetime accumulating.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Increasingly, younger investors are becoming more conscious of ESG investment screening – a means of measuring the Environmental and Social impact of the investment of their assets. Consequently, the plan for the transfer of assets itself will sometimes involve an associated restructuring of an investment portfolio to reflect a stronger focus on ESG investments, for example exposure to renewable energy, or simply equities within dedicated ESG investment funds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Preferences as to how to engage with financial planning or investment advice can often vary also. At the risk of generalisation, younger clients may place more emphasis on being able to access advice and information online or through other digital channels; while older clients may prefer a more traditional, face-to-face relationship with their advisers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Strategy with Empathy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, as a client seeking advice in passing on wealth efficiently, how might you begin the conversation?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Firstly, take the time to fully understand and document your own priorities. Do you simply want to pass wealth to the next generation tax-efficiently? Perhaps you have other philanthropic goals? Have you taken the time to understand your own needs in retirement before prioritising others? This may involve the support of one or more professional advisers, be that a tax or financial planning professional.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Secondly, introduce the other parties involved in the wealth transfer to your advisers and involve them in the conversation. This step might initially be as simple as providing them with a current statement of affairs including a list of your own advisers.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;No two families are the same. When it comes to your plan to pass on wealth, your circumstances should be reflected in an approach that is nuanced and appropriate to you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;David Moran is a Director in Unio&#39;s Independent Wealth &amp;amp; Family Office. David &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=David%20Moran&amp;amp;segment=Independent%20Wealth%20and%20Family%20Office&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;References:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. Global Wealth Report 2024, UBS&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Protecting and Growing Family Wealth

&lt;p&gt;John F Kennedy is famous for many things, but a lesser-known accomplishment is that he won a Pulitzer Prize for a bestselling book entitled ‘Profiles in Courage’ that told the stories of eight American political figures (mostly senators if I recall) who took morally courageous stands on issues that went against the views of their parties and popular opinion. An example was John Quincy Adams’ decision to break from the Federalist Party (over foreign policy).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Like all things Kennedy, the book was a dazzling success, but also had a few magical ingredients. It is generally accepted that Ted Sorensen, adviser and speechwriter to Kennedy, contributed much of the book, or in his own terms, he wrote ‘many of the words in the sentences’. Equally, the book did not make it through the formal entry process for the Pulitzer, but was nudged into the competition by Joe Kennedy, the president’s father.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As an aside, in the context of the recent presidential election, it could well be argued that Joe Kennedy was a Trumpian figure…or that Trump is simply following the ‘Patriarch’s’ (David Nasaw’s book of this title is very good) example. Kennedy accomplished more as a businessman than Trump but fell short in his political career. Instead, he groomed Joe jnr (killed in the second world war), then John, Bobby and Ted.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of Joe senior’s achievements was his appointment as American ambassador to the UK, but his term was cut short for his perceived stance on appeasement. With some irony and independence, Joe snr had encouraged the publication of his son’s Harvard thesis as a book. ‘Why England Slept’ queried the ‘soft’ stance of the British government towards Germany and argued that if Britain had re-armed earlier, and taken a more robust stance with Germany, the second world war may not have happened, or at least might have taken a different path (the book was a great success and the British royalties were given to the city of Plymouth which had been badly bombed by the Luftwaffe).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Though Robert Kennedy junior may now take the ‘Kennedy’ limelight, the message of JFK’s books echoes with today’s world. In a couple of years’ time, someone might write ‘Why Europe Slept?’ in the sense that Europe has let its guard slip on security and not built defence infrastructure to keep up with the threat of Russia.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a week where a Chinese vessel is suspected of cutting a telecoms cable between Germany and Finland, when the first EU defence and space commissioner has been confirmed (Andrius Kubilius’ first task is to compile an inventory of Europe’s defence supply chains) and where the intercontinental ballistic missiles have been used on Ukraine, there is a sense that Europe is still not ready for the worst.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The idea of ‘profiles in courage’ is even more pertinent. In a multipolar world, where countries and companies have to ‘take sides’, where America arguably will become more transactional and less relationship driven in its foreign policy and, where democracy is being eroded from within and afar, moral courage will be at a premium.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One unfortunate example here is Olaf Scholz’ moral capitulation in calling Russia’s president last week, ostensibly to lay the groundwork for a peace deal. Scholz likely had the upcoming German elections in mind, but his call was rewarded with an intense bombardment of Kiev.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This has left Scholz even more discredited, and there is now a growing debate around his future as SPD leader and the prospect that he could be replaced by Boris Pistorius, the popular defence minister.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having Pistorius in place as Social Democrat leader by the time of the election might boost the party and would also make a coalition with the CDU easier to form and more ideologically consistent. As it stands, the polls show the CDU/CSU with some 32% of the vote, the SPD on 16%, AfD at 19% and Sara Wagenknecht’s party at 7%. At that rate the CDU-SPD coalition might need to take on a smaller partner, but in effect Merz would be the dominant partner.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A Merz-Pistorius lead coalition could be a real change for Germany, could reignite its economy and remake its energy policy, and may turn it into a more robust geopolitical player vis a vis Russia.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My advice is that they both read the works of John Kennedy.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week, Mike.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Profiles in Courage

&lt;p&gt;This month’s Global Macro Council focused on Trump&#39;s second term.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The tenor of that term is becoming clearer with the nomination of new cabinet members.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two major risks are emerging.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Firstly, the response to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could lead to supply chain disruptions and strained relations between the US, China, and Europe. Secondly, the Trump cabinet&#39;s policies might lead to higher inflation and rising bond yields, potentially causing a downturn in asset prices.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The policies of the Trump cabinet are expected to have varying impacts on different sectors. Increased energy production may help control inflation but could harm energy stocks. The financial sector could benefit from deregulation, while the approach to large technology firms remains uncertain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Unio-GMC-Outlook_November-2024_Trumps-Second-Try.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more in November’s Global Macro Council Outlook&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Trump - The Second Try

&lt;p&gt;In what has been a weeks of wall-to-wall election coverage, our webinar is a must-watch for anyone looking at the bigger picture.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What is the ripple effect of Trump&#39;s win?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hosted by Alex Kinsella, Head of Investment Solutions at Unio, in conversation with our guest speakers: Shanella Rajanayagam, Trade Economist at HSBC and Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thank you to our speakers. You may watch the webinar in full below. &lt;em&gt;(32 minutes) &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/PZl4ele31KM?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The discussion focuses on several key areas:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Trade Policy: The heightened uncertainty in trade policies and the need for scenario planning due to Trump&#39;s unpredictable tariff policies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Geopolitical Risks: The significant geopolitical shifts that could either rejuvenate the American Empire or signify its decline.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Inflationary Effects: Trump&#39;s potential tariffs could lead to inflationary pressures in the US and globally.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Economic Impact: Studies suggest that US GDP could be negatively impacted by Trump&#39;s trade policies, with potential long-term effects on global GDP.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Impact on Europe: How Europe, particularly Ireland, may need to navigate the new trade dynamics and geopolitical risks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Environmental Policies: Trump&#39;s administration is likely to weaken international environmental agreements. However, this shift could create opportunities for entrepreneurs focused on environmental innovation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Investment Opportunities: Despite the risks, there may be investment opportunities, particularly in Europe, as markets adapt to the new geopolitical landscape.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A key takeaway is that while there may be some turbulence ahead, from an investment perspective, this should not be a cause for alarm. There will likely be positive opportunities over the next few years, which we must consider when positioning client portfolios. At Unio, we are committed to maintaining a long-term view and not reacting excessively to short-term fluctuations. This principle is consistently applied in our investment strategies.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Ripple Effect of the US Election

&lt;p&gt;If any readers travel to Singapore, I can recommend they visit the Botanic Gardens to sense the dawn break. A badly adjusted body clock brought on by jet lag meant that I found myself jogging around the Gardens at 5.30am on Monday and Tuesday mornings – uplifted by the sounds, smells and sights of this mini paradise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My few days in Singapore, principally to speak at the Founders Forum gathering, allowed me to gauge the Asian reaction to the prospect of a second, more menacing Trump term in office.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I did so armed with the memory of a May 2016 visit to Singapore where I had asked a gathering of some 300 people to compile a word cloud (using their mobiles) of thoughts and emotions they associated with Donald Trump. The result was harsh, and very few of the participants that day thought Trump would be elected as president in 2016, and just as few thought that Brexit would happen.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To my mind the event was emblematic of the certainty of the era of globalization, and the ways in which this was smashed by events like the first Trump presidency, Brexit and the smothering of Hong Kong’s open society.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Singapore is one of the most important places to observe these changes from – it is highly globalized (the DHL Connectedness Report highlights it as the most globalized country in the world), delicately balanced between the Chinese commercial and American worlds, and institutionally one of the strongest countries (though it is one tenth the size of County Cork, it has an active army nearly ten times the size of that of Ireland). As a leading ‘micro-power’ it has an even greater stock of soft power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, Singapore will acutely feel the rising tensions between China and America especially in terms of the technologies it uses, investment flows and diplomacy. For context, the soon to be secretary of state Marco Rubio has laid out the fault lines in the relationship between China and America in an interesting document entitled ‘The World China Made’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, several prominent politicians in Singapore such as prime minister Laurence Wong have declared the end of the ‘golden era of globalization’. My guess is that in the Trump era, Wong and colleagues will have to tread incredibly carefully diplomatically. Economically, it is clear that Singapore’s role as the wealth hub of Asia, or its ‘Geneva’ is gathering pace, and also obvious that its economy is benefitting from the growing prosperity in countries like Indonesia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are two other aspects of my visit that are worth stressing, less for what they say about Singapore but more for what they tell us about how the ‘West’ is perceived.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, with regard to Europe, in two separate meetings I was asked if I thought the euro would survive. This greatly surprised me as not only do I think the euro is a solid, though not yet perfectly formed currency, I have not been asked that question in Europe in nearly ten years. It suggests that Europe still has a reputational problem, or that at very least its ‘message’ is not reaching Asia. Conversely, it seems that there are too few Asian voices in the European media – connecting us to what is happening in cities like Singapore and Hong Kong.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second reflection, which also resonates across Europe, is that for the first time in at least a century, an American presidency is being launched that has a manifestly threatening and aggressive stance towards the rest of the world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;America has historically been the builder of relationships, alliances and institutions (Pax Americana) and its (soft) power has been built on this. The tenor of the Trump cabinet is increasingly clear, and many of the appointees appear to have been selected on the basis that they did bad things in the past, or that they are prepared to do bad things to others in the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is the great unknown for the USA, that its new posture towards the rest of the world causes it to lose influence and friends.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Distance

&lt;p&gt;The Unio Weekly View for the week beginning November 11th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Check out our investment brief below:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/ms2gW-OyItQ?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- The &#39;Trump Trade&#39; greatly benefited equities and bitcoin last week as investors expect tax cuts and less corporate regulation from a second Trump presidency.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Global bond yields all fell last week as both the US and UK central banks continued their rate cutting cycle.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- US headline and core inflation data for October will be released on the 13th. The current headline and core rates stand at 2.4% and 3.3% respectively.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- On the 14th Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell, will speak in relation to the central bank’s decision to cut rates by a further 25bps. It’s also worth keeping an eye out for UK Q3 GDP on the 15th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Tencent, Walt Disney and Alibaba all report results this week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or get in touch here: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 11 November, 2024

&lt;p&gt;Donald Trump will be president of the United States for a second time, defying those who thought his first term was an anomaly and who considered that the American people still care about the rule of law. He will preside over the 250th anniversary of US independence, the next Olympics and World Cup.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is an election result of such great consequence that it will decide whether America’s hegemony is renewed, or that its empire fades like so many others have done through the ages. Fittingly, I woke up to the news of Trump’s victory in Vienna, a city that knows a thing or two about empires. In that context, an interesting and possibly underread book is ‘The Hapsburg Way – 7 rules for turbulent times’ by Eduard Habsburg, known formally as the Archduke of Austria and now a career diplomat for Hungary.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Of Habsburg’s seven rules, the most important are ‘Believe in the empire, and your subsidiarity’ and ‘Respect law and justice’. Trump will likely not do well on these counts, nor does he score on ‘Be Catholic’ though the Catholic church has chased his coattails through the electoral campaign. He does better on ‘Get married and have many children’ and ‘Be brave in battle’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The book is full of interesting snippets, such as that the first governor of Texas (in 1691) was installed by the (Spanish) Habsburgs. In that respect the only blemish in the book is the foreword, written by Habsburg’s boss Viktor Orban, who this week held court over his European counterparts in Budapest, in the wake of the Trump victory.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While I think that Trump will be much more disruptive for Asia and Europe, and that his presidency will see an unprecedented re-shaping of the Middle East, a great deal of media attention is devoted to his impact on Europe and NATO. Overall, the reaction is far too alarmist and the vision of world leaders cowering before Trump gives little acknowledgement of his and America’s vulnerabilities.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite this, with near comic timing, only hours after Trump’s victory was confirmed, the squabbling German government fell apart, a development that has been simmering for some time.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Germany will likely have an election next March, and this is good news. Scholz’ ineffective and indecisive government will be thrown out (Scholz may also be replaced by Boris Pistorius at the head of his party), and Germans will vote in a centre-right government, if polls are to be believed. There is very strong appetite on the part of German businesses to restart the economy, unblock planning laws and rethink energy policy. This much was very clear to me when speaking with investors and businesspeople in Hamburg (after Vienna).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If a new centre-right government transpires in Germany, this should re-engage the political engine at the heart of Europe between France and Germany. But there is a small chance that Emmanuel Macron will not be president of France in a year’s time. Macron, who this week compared Europe’s fate to ‘herbivore in a climate of carnivores’, is fantastically unpopular in France and it cannot be discounted that the Rassemblement will try to bring him down in 2025. Similarly, there is a risk that far-right parties in Europe are emboldened by the Trump victory.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Apart from the travails of the German and French leaders, there is a shift of power going on across Europe – in favour of Poland and Italy, and towards the Baltics/Nordics. The sense is that a Trump led US will bring about the end to the Pax Americana, which may initially leave Europe more vulnerable diplomatically, though ultimately it will become more independent (to America’s disadvantage). Arguably the loser here is the UK, stranded offside the EU, and at odds with Trump and his vice-president.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A Trumpian America, if true to the caricature, will leave Europe as the last bastion of democracy and independent institutions. This is a great challenge and one that most people are not ready for. In events I speak at, a trick question I pitch to the audience is to ask how many of them (usually accomplished, educated people) would enter politics – in most cases there are few volunteers. If European democracies are to be renewed, politics must re-civilise itself and to quote Eduard Habsburg, politics also needs more brave people.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another area to watch is institutions. Donald Trump already politicised the Supreme Court and might well do the same with the Federal Reserve. On Thursday the Fed, oddly in my view, cut rates, but the press conference after the meeting was dominated by Chair Powell denying that he would resign if Trump requested he do so. As America’s institutions may become more politicised, and world institutions like the UN and WTO become less relevant in a Trumpian world, Europe needs to ensure that the independence and competence of its institutions is pristine.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Returning to the topic of defence, perhaps the most interesting confirmation hearing (by the EU Parliament) of EU commissioners designate was that of Andrius Kubilius, the Lithuanian, first defence commissioner. His first task will be to deliver a paper (in 100 days from now) on the state of defence procurement, the integration of defence supply chains and the opportunities for a more intensive commitment to space technology. In his commentary, he revealed that a pan-European missile defence shield could cost up to Eur 500bn. So, we should brace ourselves for the issue of EU war bonds to pay for this.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To end this note with a very big picture view, in the context of the theme of the ‘Levelling’, Trump’s first victory was a wrecking ball to globalization. This second one shatters it completely and will try to remake America and the world order with a narrative and vision (‘tariffs’, ‘deportation’, ‘loyalty tests’) that will deglobalize. Politically, Trump has sold Americans a political vision based on the Leviathan (the people surrender their liberty to a singular leader in return for protection). Europe is still a ‘Leveller’ type system (bottom up democracies). Of the two approaches, I am with the Levellers.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Want to hear more? Join us at our next webinar:&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Global Markets After the Vote – The Ripple Effect of the US Election. &lt;/strong&gt;This webinar is a must-attend for anyone looking at the bigger picture as an&amp;nbsp;investor.&amp;nbsp;We will cut through the noise to explore how&amp;nbsp;Trump&#39;s victory could impact markets globally, with a focus on what it&amp;nbsp;means for Ireland’s economy, local business, and individual investments.&amp;nbsp;Join us on Wednesday,&amp;nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;13th November at 11 am&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;to get valuable insights and stay prepared for whatever changes may come.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7474495881785115482&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Register here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Empire

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Donald Trump will be president of the United States for the second time, a development that will dramatically alter the course of American society and have many implications for the world order. The fact that the Senate has shifted to the Republicans will enable Trump, notably in assembling his cabinet and in shaping new legislation. In policy terms, an important difference between the next and the previous Trump government will be an ideological coherence and more singular organisations. In addition, the Trump victory will likely trigger a shift in power within the Democratic party.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Amidst a very strong turnout, America looks divided, and the campaign has been rancorous. Trump’s election will have implications for healthcare, women’s health, immigration, and law - in most cases not for the better.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In terms of foreign policy, the world’s view of America will change, compared to the sense people have had of it over the past fifty years. The re-shaping of the Middle East, to Iran’s detriment, will accelerate. It is likely that Trump will push for a deal of sorts between Ukraine and Russia, though Ukraine and Europe may well contest the parameters of this.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Europe will feel lonelier diplomatically and will need to become more independent. A power shift from large countries like Germany to eastern states like Poland, as well as Italy, will occur and Viktor Orbán will continue to irritate colleagues. For the UK’s Starmer-led government, the notion of the ‘special relationship’ may well be over.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ireland may not suffer diplomatically in the way Germany or the UK might, but trade and investment policy are more uncertain now, and there is a growing sense that like other European countries, there is a divergence between American society and that of Ireland.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Economically, there is a perception that Trump is ‘good for business’ in the sense that regulation will be pared back, and taxes can fall. Trade policy is likely to be much more aggressive, granted some of the policies that have been crafted by members of the Trump entourage, and, few allies (i.e. Japan, South Korea) will be spared. Europe will be pivotal here in terms of how it plays the US-China trade relationship.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Trump may find that the one force that reins him in is the bond market. In the context of a very high deficit and near record levels of government debt, the room for fiscal manoeuvre is limited, though he is not known to favour tax hikes. In that respect, bond and dollar volatility may be the financial markers of the second Trump presidency, and this could well be exacerbated if he changes the make-up of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equities may see a short-term rally, but valuations are now at historically high levels, and ironically international investors may prefer to consider emerging and European assets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Want to hear more?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Join us at our next webinar: &lt;strong&gt;Global Markets After the Vote – The Ripple Effect of the US Election. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In what will undoubtedly be a week of wall-to-wall election coverage,&amp;nbsp;this webinar is a must-attend for anyone looking at the bigger picture as an&amp;nbsp;investor.&amp;nbsp;We’ll cut through the noise to explore how&amp;nbsp;the U.S. election could impact markets globally, with a focus on what it&amp;nbsp;means for Ireland’s economy, local business, and individual investments.&amp;nbsp;Join us on Wednesday, &lt;strong&gt;13th November at 11 am&lt;/strong&gt; to get valuable insights and stay prepared for whatever changes may come.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7474495881785115482&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Register here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Trump 2.0 - Implications

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning November 4th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our weekly brief&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/xiz66I9AJ1A?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Ahead of tomorrow&#39;s US vote, the Dollar index has sold off as the polls continue to tighten between both candidates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Global equities had a difficult week, down 1.4% driven by weaker than expected earnings in the tech space.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Global bonds rose as the UK budget was not well received and caution continues ahead of the US election.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Eurozone inflation fell to 2% in October, in line with the European&#39;s Central Bank&#39;s target.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The Federal Reserve and Bank of England have interest rate calls on Thursday.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Berkshire Hathaway, Ryanair and Novo Nordisk all announce earnings this week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 04 November, 2024

&lt;p&gt;Unio gives peace of mind to clients while helping them unlock confidence in their financial futures.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Busy professional and personal lives mean that time is often at a premium for high-net-worth individuals. However, taking a step back from day-to-day concerns to take an in-depth and holistic view of finances and personal wealth with the help of an expert qualified financial adviser, is time well spent. It is also among the best investments that you can make in yourself and your future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That’s the experience of clients who turn to Unio Wealth Management, experts in this field.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio exists to meet the needs of people in Ireland who have accumulated wealth, yet they are time poor and are currently under-advised.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It represents an amalgamation of some of Ireland’s leading wealth management and employee benefits companies with the backing of Great-West Lifeco. In Ireland, Unio has over 300 employees and oversees €14bn of assets on behalf of personal and corporate clients.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“We invested a lot in our people and the technology platform to support the integration of these companies and build our wealth capability for the future. We are fortunate in what we acquired as we gained significant capability and top talent from each of the businesses.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“While personal wealth has grown significantly in Ireland in recent years, with the number of people with net assets of over €1 million having doubled in the last decade, Ireland is under-served in terms of wealth management advice,” explains chief executive, Ian Brady.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“We make financial lives better through expert advice aligning our clients’ life goals with our years of experience in wealth planning and investments. This gives our clients immense peace of mind, maximises their wealth and unlocks their confidence in the future. That’s why we believe that time spent with us is truly time well spent,” Brady notes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many people are so busy working, they neglect getting advice around their full financial life, he says and operate piecemeal in terms of investment products that they may have bought through the years. There is a reluctance on the part of many people to look at the full financial picture, resulting in missed opportunity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One clear and simple manifestation of this is the very high level of assets held in deposit accounts. About 47 per cent of Irish wealth, or approximately €150bn, is kept on deposit compared to 30 per cent in the Netherlands and Denmark, with around 90 per cent of this in the form of overnight deposits, attracting virtually no interest.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“This is holding individuals, households and us as a country back. The leveraged effect if people in Ireland sought expert wealth management advice and deployed their savings to further their financial lives would be immense. We believe we have a role to play to help arrest this situation,” Brady notes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Maximising potential is a cornerstone of the Unio Way, and as chief commercial officer Aine McGroarty says, the process of helping people build their financial wealth starts with a dialogue in which clients sit down with Unio to discuss their circumstances and what is important to them, and this varies hugely depending on the person. “Our clients tell us that wealth means more to them than money or assets, it is about quality of life for the future and often about making big life decisions, we understand this, and this is what makes Unio different,” she says.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“We provide clients with a full bespoke financial life plan. We have a team of expert advisers and financial planners who help with that plan and clients get access to a dedicated financial adviser on their terms who can advise on their unique situation, where they want to get to in their financial lives and the best way to get there,” she says.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;McGroarty likes to draw an analogy with a doctor’s visit for a full medical review. Clients get an expert opinion on their financial health and how to improve it and if required, can be referred for specialist tax or legal advice. Having established the needs and aspirations of clients, Unio works to develop a wealth plan, often involving a broad spectrum of investments and assets classes and taking relevant time horizons into account. The need for diversification and appropriate risk management strategies are key tenets of these plans.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While every client is different, the common denominator is that everyone has life goals and triggers such as saving for children or their retirement, and Unio’s mission is to use its professional expertise to help clients realise these, she says. The goal as their trusted adviser, is to move clients from passive wealth holders to active wealth builders.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The whole life and whole person approach taken by Unio involves taking a single view of a client’s holistic assets and how they can be managed for maximum benefit in a process that involves guiding, guarding and growing wealth. This moves the experience into a different realm from one where clients are simply sold products on a piecemeal basis. It puts them back in control of their lives.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Traditionally the industry has been product-led and this has put people off engaging and seeking quality advice. People maybe have had disparate advice in terms of quality and engagement. Huge swathes of wealthy Ireland are under-advised in terms of the bigger picture, and this is where Unio can best serve clients,” Brady says.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Brady notes the research from the European Household Study on Finance shows that Ireland is one of the top countries in income per capita but is significantly lower in terms of financial literacy and very low on investment fund adoption. In many cases, professionals are accumulating wealth at a relatively young age and have a strong future earnings power – yet most often their wealth is concentrated on single stock options, he observes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“We’ve grown up as a country and become wealthy very quickly in Ireland, but we have not adapted from an investment capability point of view. The opportunity cost of not performing well in this area is enormous. We understand that, in their day to day lives, clients don’t always have to time to think about their long-term financial journey. People may be time-poor but clients that invest time in the process with their Unio Wealth Management Adviser are making the greatest investment in their future and our experience is that those who invest in advice are twice as likely to feel positively about their future.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;If you would like to speak to a Unio Wealth Management Adviser, visit&amp;nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Let&#39;s Talk | Unio Wealth Management&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishtimes.com/sponsored/2024/11/04/the-wealth-management-partner-that-helps-high-earners-achieve-their-full-financial-potential/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;This article appeared in the Irish Times, November 4th, 2024.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The wealth management partner that helps high earners achieve their full financial potential

&lt;p&gt;Budget 2025 saw the lifetime thresholds for Capital Acquisitions Tax increase – and with these changes already in effect, it’s never been a better time to think about how you can engage in tax-efficient estate planning.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The last thing anyone wants to have to think about when they have just lost a loved one is a tax bill. Building your legacy isn’t easy and you don’t want to see your hard work swallowed up by the tax man when the next generation receive their inheritance.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are numerous ways that you can tax efficiently pass assets to your family, both during your lifetime and as part of your legacy. The earlier you start, the bigger the potential tax savings.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Capital Acquisitions Tax (CAT)&lt;/strong&gt; is charged on assets that you receive as a gift or inheritance and the current rate of this tax is 33%. Of course, you can receive a certain level of wealth this way tax free, within ‘threshold’ limits. These limits depend on your relationship to the recipient of the gift or inheritance.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Parents typically look to pass their wealth to the next generation where there is a surplus of wealth, or likely to be one over time. Where a gift or inheritance from a parent to child, the first €400,000 given or inherited, can be received tax free. Beyond this though, it’s a different story. The thresholds are less generous between different groups.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCOQSE43FS6ZCNTMR6SVU63B7U4I?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Lifetime CAT Thresholds&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fy49&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCOQSE43FS6ZCNTMR6SVU63B7U4I&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Lifetime CTA Thresholds.PNG&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In fact, the current threshold from parent to child is quite low when you consider that the average house price across Ireland is €335,000* with many properties selling for amounts well in excess of this. This can lead to children having to sell an inherited property that may have been owned by a family for some time, simply to meet a tax liability.&amp;nbsp; *source CSO, Property Price Index, April 2024.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, how can you pass on your wealth and make sure that the next generation can benefit in the way that you would hope?&amp;nbsp;Here are a few planning ideas that might be of benefit to you.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Make a will&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ensure your Estate is divided up on death to make the most of those tax-free thresholds, i.e. leave assets to everyone who has a threshold available to them, including grandchildren and your children’s spouses/partners. Don’t let the laws of intestacy decide who receives the assets you’ve spent your lifetime building up - or the associated tax bill!&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Small Gift Exemption&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;During your lifetime you can gift to your children up to €3,000 every year tax free. In fact, you can gift this amount to as many people as you like each year, without it attracting any tax for the recipient or you – although it is important to make sure you can meet your own needs before you consider gifting. For example, if a couple were to each gift to their two sons, their two daughters-in-law and five grandchildren over the next 20 years, they would reduce the value of their estate on death and gift a total of €1,080,000 – all tax free. This would represent a tax saving of €356,400 – and all without utilising any of the available tax-free thresholds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Consider a savings plan&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you plan to give larger gifts during your lifetime that might lead to the recipient exceeding their lifetime threshold limit, you might consider starting a special type of savings plan, the value of which is specifically used for the payment of CAT. This could be useful if you intend to provide a large gift in the future, perhaps for a property purchase.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What about your pension assets?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you’re already retired, you may have an Approved Retirement Fund (ARF). If an ARF is left, as part of your will, to anyone other than your spouse or children it will be subject to income tax at your marginal rate. Additionally, the remaining balance, after the deduction of income tax, will be further reduced by CAT. Addressing inheritance of ARF specifically in your Will can ensure it doesn’t fall into the residue of your estate and end up being inherited by someone other than your spouse/child.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Consider taking out a life insurance policy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A Section 72 ‘whole of life’ life insurance policy can be taken out specifically for the payment of a CAT liability. The value of the policy itself, where established correctly, is exempt from any CAT. This can provide much-needed cash for your beneficiaries to pay inheritance tax on illiquid assets like property. Furthermore, the pay-out can be larger than the accumulated value of the associated premiums, and unlike other types of life policies, a whole of life policy is guaranteed to pay out on death.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Look at offsetting tax on personal investment assets&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some investments may be subject to exit tax on death, but this tax can be offset against any CAT incurred by the recipient when they inherit the investment. It’s worth considering leaving such investments specifically to someone who will also incur an inheritance tax liability on receipt of them and can therefore avail of the tax offset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Other assets may be subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) if you gift them during your lifetime. However, if the recipient has used up their lifetime threshold and is subject to CAT on the gift, this CAT can be offset against the CGT you have paid.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would like to find out more about gifting and legacy planning, speak to your Unio adviser and they will talk you through the best solutions for you or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch with us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Preserving Wealth and Legacy - Smart Inheritance Tax Planning

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A headline in last week’s Guardian caught my eye. It read ‘No-one will save you’ and detailed the bubbling awakening of a volcano near Grindavik in the south of Iceland. Granted that we were in the area, we drove down to have a look. My family didn’t share my ‘lava-lust’ and luckily for them the police were still in place and roads to the volcano were closed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;However, the ‘no one will save you theme’ is also relevant to Iceland in the financial sense, in the way it represents a rare example of a small, powerless country that resolved its banking and debt crisis by itself, in a very painful but ultimately productive way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Some readers may recall that in the mid 2000’s Icelandic entrepreneurs were making headlines with bids for leading British retailers like Hamleys and Karen Millen. That a small, fish led economy of some 350,000 people could produce such brash, adventurous capitalists has less to do with Iceland’s Viking and Celtic heritage than the over supply of cheap money from its banks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At the time&lt;strong&gt;,&lt;/strong&gt; Iceland vied with Ireland for the title of ‘biggest banking sector’ (relative to GDP). According to a presentation deck from Mar Gudmundsson&lt;strong&gt;,&lt;/strong&gt; the Norwegian who took over as head of Iceland’s central bank post the crisis, the Icelandic banking sector grew by a factor of three times between 2004 and 2008. Specifically, Iceland’s banks, the likes of Glitnir, Landsbanki and Kaupthing (all AAA rated of course) were growing their balance sheets at a rapid rate (to a near record 10 times Iceland’s GDP) and bankers travelled from London to sell them new, genius investment ideas.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Like Ireland, Iceland became admired for its ‘model’ economy, and took advantage of the fawning of other Nordic countries and bodies like the OECD to sell more ‘Glacier bonds’.&amp;nbsp;There are plenty of colourful stories about the exploits of Icelandic bankers at that time, but to cut a long story short, when the global financial crisis struck in October 2008, the Icelandic banking system quickly collapsed.&amp;nbsp;As a small, open economy with meagre financial resources, the fallout was dramatic and painful. In the aftermath of the crisis, the Reykjavik stock market fell by 90%, the corporate bond market cratered, and the currency (Icelandic krona, ISK) by 50%. Many households had borrowed in foreign currencies and as a result saw the burden (in ISK) of their mortgages soar. On paper, Iceland’s debt to GDP hit 700%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A classic banking bubble was soon followed by a deep, textbook ‘bust’ (one economist Hermann Schwartz summed it up as ‘Iceland came late to the global party, drank too quickly, and hit the floor rather harder than larger economies’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What is most interesting about Iceland is the way it resolved its crisis, largely by itself and through the will of the people. This might sound obvious or even trite, but when I compare it to the fallout from Ireland’s economic blow-up whose causes were very similar to Iceland’s banking crisis, Iceland has demonstrated a far greater degree of reform and accountability in its public life. In a world of heavily indebted nations the example of Iceland is one to bear in mind.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Like other European countries at the epicentre of the financial crisis Iceland was gripped by protests. Reform came quickly. The long-serving prime minister, Geir Haarde lost his job (his last speech to the nation ended with the words ‘God save Iceland’), and the governor of the central bank was forced out of his&amp;nbsp;role.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The new government, and to a large extent the Icelandic people are considered to have largely taken ownership of the resolution of the crisis (think of the public opposition to pension reform in France as a counter example). Some thirty-six bankers were tried, sent to jail and fined, a development that is in stark contrast to other crisis hit countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Iceland suffered a brutal financial shock, and a deep hit to the real economy (output dropped 15% in two years), though this was ultimately less severe than the damage done to the Greek and Spanish economies, one reason for this being the manner in which the drop in the ISK made Iceland attractive as an exporter and tourist destination (the curiosity of tourists was also piqued by the explosion of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano and the use of Iceland as a location for Game of Thrones).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A number of financial reforms also helped, the financial regulator was given extra powers, notably to protect deposit holders and new, domestic economy focused banks were created. The government refused to assume responsibility for debt owed to foreign nations and investors (many of whom were in the UK which placed Iceland on a terror watch list). Fiscal austerity was imposed, under the watch of the IMF, but this was less onerous in its conditionality than that imposed on Ireland, Greece and Spain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The result of this reform and readjustment process was that the Icelandic economy began to recover some three years after the crisis started, and according to Iceland’s central bank GDP growth had caught up with the recovery of the US economy by 2018, surpassing that of the euro-zone.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whilst it is a small, idiosyncratic economy, there are some clear lessons from Iceland in terms of how an open economy might deal with a multi-faceted banking, debt and currency crisis.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Very broadly, the key elements involve prioritizing the domestic economy, domestic banking&amp;nbsp;deposits and the free functioning of the financial system,&amp;nbsp;the sense of justice and accountability that comes from ‘regime’ change and the arraignment of guilty bankers,&amp;nbsp;the absence of overly punitive austerity, and the presence of a stabilizing mechanism (in this case the currency).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As I write, Iceland’s economy seems to be thriving, with a new focus on biotech, geothermal power and climate-tech. France, Germany and the UK should pay attention.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

No One Will Save You

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Kim Hong-Kyun is not a name that very many Europeans know, but they really should, given his grave diplomatic intervention last week. Hong-Kyun is the South Korean ‘first foreign minister’, who last week summoned the Russian ambassador to Seoul to register South Korea’s displeasure at the news that up to 12,000 North Korean soldiers are in or on their way to Russia to fight in Ukraine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;While North Korea’s contribution to the Russian war effort is already known (their armaments industry is producing as many shells as Russia itself – and more than all of Europe), the prospect of an Asian state sending soldiers to fight in a European country is unprecedented, and I am perplexed that European governments have not reacted to this (though South Korea, Australia and Japan sent representatives to a recent NATO meeting).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The South Koreans have pledged to arm Ukraine if North Korean troops fight there, raising the complicated prospect of an Asian proxy war in Europe – again something that would have been inconceivable years ago, and that also tilts us towards the notion of a world war.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whilst some readers might find this an exaggeration, we are at a moment of coherence, when threads that have been developing over the years become clearer and begin to describe the contours of the emerging geopolitical order.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One of the notable formations here is the SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which I wrote about in the Levelling (p. 245) describing them as a geopolitical ‘gang’ of the future and sort of anti-NATO coalition, or at least an anti-AUKUS* group. Despite this, few of the university post-grads in international relations I have come across in recent teaching sessions knew of the SCO.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There is a sense that the shadow or the logic of the SCO was lurking behind last week’s BRICS meeting, given the perception that the BRICS is becoming an anti-Western alliance, which in reality is not true. Reinforcing this are the very different cultures across the BRICS countries, and the risk to their project that relations between them depend on individual autocrats rather than institutions or peoples.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Yet, a sign of the times is the manner in which large emerging nations like India and Turkey are hedging their bets in the sense of maintaining good relations with Russia and the US. For India in particular, the BRICS meeting was a chance to begin to repair relations with China.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;They could be forgiven for doing so granted the impact that the outcome of the US presidential election will have on international relations. The choice is one between an effective continuation of the foreign policy of the Biden/Democrat administration in the context of growing pushback against American power, versus a Trump foreign policy that is unsure, opportunistic and likely goes against the deep grain of Republican foreign policy as established by Ronald Reagan, George H Bush, Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;2025 will hopefully see the end of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, following which the notion of the coherence of rival systems will come into sharper focus. It is increasingly clear that the leading autocratic states (Russia and China) are hell bent on undermining the democratic world, and any nations that toy with the idea of joining it (witness the heavy handed Russian interference in last week’s referendum on EU membership in Moldova, and it&#39;s obvious interference in Georgia’s election which takes place this weekend).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The danger is that the sharpening coherence of the SCO is like the development of AI – it has been gathering pace amongst specialists for some time, and then a public event (the launch of ChatGPT) brings it into the public domain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One of the obvious casualties of the emergence of the SCO and indeed the geopolitical trials the world is suffering, is the diminished influence and credibility of world institutions like the UN and WTO (World Trade Organisation), which are being reduced to the role of bystanders in this emerging geopolitical contest.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The scene is set then for the November 5th election to either reinforce or undermine the world order.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Coherence

&lt;p&gt;In an intense year of elections, the most consequential is America’s, which besides many other factors, will have decisive implications for trade.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From an investment point of view, the difference in trade and economic policy between the candidates is stark.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-October-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more in October’s Global Macro Council Outlook.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this month&#39;s GMC, we were fortunate to be joined by guest speakers Shanella Rajanayagam, Trade Economist at HSBC and Arnab Das, Global Market Strategy at Invesco, EMEA. Thank you both for your insights and expertise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Re-Globalising Trade

&lt;p&gt;There is a theory abroad that the British Empire was so vast and dominant, simply because a large country (England) was attached to a brilliant small country (Scotland). It is true that many of the individuals we associate with the advancement of Britain are Scottish - economist Adam Smith, scientists James Watt, Alexander Fleming and Alexander Graham Bell, and writers like Arthur Conan Doyle and Walter Scott. More recently, some of the more prominent political figures in Westminster have been Scottish – such as Gordon Brown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This year is the tenth anniversary of the Scottish independence referendum, which whilst the motion for independence was defeated, set in train a groundswell in favour of independence and the resulting electoral landslide for the Scottish National Party in the subsequent general election. At the time of the referendum, the SNP was led by Alex Salmond, who died last week, and who was the founding father and driving force of the independence movement (and a subscriber to this note).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the time of the referendum, there was great interest in the prospect of Scotland going it alone, and the way the Scots might dis-engage their economy from England was the focus of attention. In many respects the downfall of the independence side was that they became mired in an argument over the kind of currency arrangement Scotland might have, and the resulting impact that this could have on household finances. In the land of Braveheart, this battle by spreadsheet proved too much.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The independence referendum also brought into focus the kind of socio-economic model that Scotland might enjoy, and this spurred me to start researching the model of small, advanced states, a theme I have developed in collaboration with David Skilling over the years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Simply put, our thesis is that while the likes of Sweden, Switzerland, Singapore, Ireland and the Netherlands are culturally very different they, and a handful of other small states are all highly successful. Alex Salmond used to refer to the northern most small, advanced economies as the ‘arc of prosperity’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Small-advanced states dominate the lists of ‘happiest nation’, ‘most innovative’ and ‘most open economy’, and share a common set of factors upon which their success is built (strong institutions, a healthy regard for the rule of law, prioritisation of education and innovation for example).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, this ‘secret sauce’ tallies with the work of the winners of this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson, the body of whose works links growth to institutions and laws (the book ‘Why Nations Fail’ is worth a read).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the first occasions that David and I presented our work was with Alex Salmond, in Singapore, and since then David in particular has been an active adviser to the Scottish government.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My sense is that the death of Alex Salmond, and the near implosion of the SNP amidst a series of leadership crises (and the resurrection of the Scottish Labour party who have increased their tally of Scottish MPs in Westminster from 2 to 37) will gravely diminish the political momentum towards an independent Scotland. On the other hand, the limits that Brexit places on the UK in general will serve as one of several motivators for the Scots to go their own way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the underlying theses behind the small state model is that they are adaptive and strategic – nimbly ducking around the imbalances of a chaotic world. To a large extent this is still true – the Nordic countries, as well as the smaller Baltic states have impressively upped their game on the security and defence front (Ireland has not), and Sweden and Finland have thrown off their neutrality.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, and a marker of how policy is changing in the Western world, the Nordic state – once a near parody of tolerance – are adopting much tougher stances on immigration, and after too much patience, organised crime. If they are really canaries in the coal mine of world politics, this turning point suggests that in Europe, there is now little welcome for an increase in immigration.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, having been in the vanguard of economic advancement during globalization, small, advanced states are at the forefront of dealing with the challenges of an intensely geopolitical world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Act of  Union

&lt;p&gt;The Minister for Finance, Jack Chambers TD, has published Finance Bill 2024, following approval by Government late last week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Finance Bill 2024 contains important changes to pensions along with other changes that could effect your financial planning. It&#39;s important to note that the changes have been announced but are not in law until ratified through the Finance Act, which usually happens towards the end of the calendar year.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We have reviewed Finance Bill 2024 and picked out the key proposed changes that may have an impact on our advice to you.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While we had expected to see detail on the implementation of the recently announced SFT changes, we were disappointed to see proposed changes to employer PRSA contributions.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;PRSA Contributions&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Employer contributions to PRSAs will be &lt;strong&gt;limited to 100% of the employee’s remuneration&lt;/strong&gt;. Any contribution above this amount will be treated as &lt;strong&gt;Benefit in Kind (BIK)&lt;/strong&gt; and be &lt;strong&gt;subject to income tax&lt;/strong&gt; for the employee.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Employer contributions to PRSAs will still be allowed as a deductible expense for the employer&lt;strong&gt; up to the limit of 100% of the employee’s salary&lt;/strong&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;PRSA changes are expected to come into effect on 01/01/2025.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;If you are planning an employer contribution to your PRSA, it is important that you do not delay and reach out to your Unio Adviser as soon as possible.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Standard Fund Threshold (SFT)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The SFT defines the maximum tax-efficient pension fund in Ireland. It is set to rise to&lt;strong&gt; €2.8 million by 2029,&lt;/strong&gt; with the threshold rising by&lt;strong&gt; €200,000 per annum from 2026 – 2029&lt;/strong&gt;. From 2030 onwards, the threshold is then set to rise in line with an applicable level of growth each year (yet to be determined).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chargeable Excess Tax (CET)&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-No changes to the rate of CET applicable on claims above the Standard Fund Threshold (SFT) limit were detailed in the Finance Bill which will remain at &lt;strong&gt;40% &lt;/strong&gt;for the time-being.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-No change was indicated to being able to offset the&lt;strong&gt; 20% tax &lt;/strong&gt;on a retirement lump sum between &lt;strong&gt;€200,000 - €500,000 &lt;/strong&gt;against CET.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We may see a change to both of the above once the first SFT increase happens in &lt;strong&gt;2026.&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Capital Acquisition tax (CAT) Thresholds&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Budget 2025 outlined that the Lifetime CAT thresholds will increase for the first time since 2019. This has mainly been in response to the rapid increase seen in property prices and will allow for a greater transfer of wealth between generations without triggering a tax liability.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Group A Threshold (parent to child) increases from €335,000 to&lt;strong&gt; €400,000.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Group B Threshold (grandchildren and other relatives) increases from €32,500 to &lt;strong&gt;€40,000.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Group C Threshold (other) increases from €16,250 to &lt;strong&gt;€20,000.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There was no mention of a change to the CAT rate of &lt;strong&gt;33%&lt;/strong&gt; so this will still apply to any amounts above the new thresholds.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The threshold increases were effective from 02/10/2024.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Retirement Relief&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Retirement Relief has been amended so that if an individual &lt;strong&gt;aged 55 or over&lt;/strong&gt; disposes of qualifying assets to a child after&lt;strong&gt; 01/01/2025&lt;/strong&gt;,&lt;strong&gt; a lifetime limit of €10m&lt;/strong&gt; will apply.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Capital Gains Tax (CGT) will apply on any balance above this unless the child&lt;strong&gt; retains ownership of the asset for 12 years&lt;/strong&gt;, in which case the CGT will be deferred.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-If the child disposes of the qualifying asset&lt;strong&gt; prior to the 12-year deferment period&lt;/strong&gt;, they will be liable for CGT on the original amount received above the €10m threshold and any subsequent gains on the asset since they received same.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What do these changes mean for you?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For a full understanding of the potential changes and the impact they will have on&amp;nbsp;financial planning for your future, speak to your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Finance Bill 2024

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning October 14th, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our brief below.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/1U0MdgG2Gfo?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Last week saw the beginning of Q3 corporate earnings, and as is tradition, financial sector businesses kicked things off. The big news came from the performance of JP Morgan, with the bank comfortably exceeding profit expectations. It was also a good week for Blackrock with their AUM surpassing $11.5Tn after a positive quarter.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-On the macro side the key talking point of the week was US inflation, which came in at 2.4% slightly above economists expectations. There is also growing fears that the German economy will contract this year but bounce back strongly in 2025 as rates fall.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Overall global equity markets were positive for the week up 1.2% led by growth stocks. Fixed income markets were relatively muted over the week off the back of mixed macro news.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 14 10 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Regular readers will know that I travel a lot, always with a preference for boats and trains and by air when necessary. Having spent much of the summer without the need for a plane, the next few months will see an intensification of my travel schedule across Europe, the Middle East and Asia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In most places I will be talking about the economics and politics of a changing world, but the virtue of visiting so many cities (Hamburg to Abu Dhabi for instance) and regions (the Cotswolds to South East Asia) is the opportunity it grants to witness the kinds of growth and development happening in the world, and the measures we can use to compare economic activity across countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Here, a few favourites come to mind. In the 1990’s and early 2000’s it was commonplace for economists and investment strategists in the large banks to rush back from trips to Asia with tales of how many cranes they had seen across the skylines of major Chinese cities and estimates of what this meant for the growth of the Chinese economy. Nowadays, those economists sit on a deck chair in the Marina Bay Sands hotel in Singapore, look out onto the bay and count the number of tankers anchored there as a proxy for global supply chain disruption.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Another tell-tale indicator is taxis. A former colleague, friend and reader of this note, with whom I used to travel to Japan with in the late 1990’s referenced the length of taxi queues as a proxy for Japan’s then moribund economy (often unoccupied taxi ranks would snake around office blocks).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then on a visit to a thriving Abu Dhabi in 2012, my taxi driver got lost (on the way to the airport). He apologised, saying it was his ‘first day’. I assumed he meant it was his first day as a taxi driver, but it turned out that it was his first day in Abu Dhabi. I politely took this as a sign of a vibrant labour market and a strong economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A risk that travelling economists face, not unwittingly, is that they normally stay in the centre of a city, and often in a decent hotel. I wrote a note some time ago describing this as ‘Grande Bretagne’ syndrome, after the teams from the IMF who oversaw the austerity programme of the Greek economy during the euro-zone financial crisis who stayed in the plush Grande Bretagne and Hilton hotels in the city centre. While this placed them near the seat of power, it meant that they were blind to the brutal impact of austerity across the country.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In general, travelling economists should get out and about. For instance, the quality of public transport in a country is a good indicator of the standard of infrastructure and to an extent, social cohesion and, is also a good way to observe a society. Someone observed that a city in which the wealthy use public transport is a well-balanced one (Zurich is a good example). In contrast, there is, inexplicably, no train from Dublin airport to the city centre, but a ride on the Luas tram will give a very good idea of the dramatic changes in Irish society.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In keeping with this approach, a favourite activity to beat jetlag and to either reacquaint with or discover a city is an early morning run (this week’s schedule took in the Tour Eiffel, the Tiergarten and Madrid (the park was closed due to bad weather)). In that idiosyncratic way, My eyes (and feet) are sensitive to the quality of the road surface, pollution and to the appearance of new buildings and signs of dereliction (Berlin scores on both counts).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are other indicators of the economic prowess of cities, such as the rise of tall towers (the UAE for instance). In this tech driven age, a new category of indicators might comprise cities that want to become crypto-hubs (UAE, Miami, Zurich, Lisbon) and those that seek to attract large artificial intelligence (AI) firms (OpenAI has just opened an office in Paris).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As a final note on Madrid, I haven&#39;t seen the city as ‘sleek’ or well presented (the 12th was the national holiday), and it must be said, as expensive. Note that Spain now has a slightly lower interest rate (bond yield) than France, and a considerably higher rate of growth than Germany.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are a lot more Latin Americans than I had expected, and this has both helped tourism, and pushed up house prices (to the ire of some locals). Spain’s golden visa system means that it is the recipient of wealthier Latin Americans leaving countries like Venezuela. At the same time, quite a number of Spanish businesses and executives are relocating to Lisbon, which is a warning sign for innovation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

From Cranes to Crypto

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Winter it seems, across much of Europe, has come early. Two instincts that grow as the evenings darken are the inclination to have a tipple in the evening and to watch a good film. One Danish work that captures both sentiments is &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.festival-cannes.com/en/f/druk/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!m5CdP4wjWeNpTzeY7XT2opD79WAJfFlQZ0laKWMx1xxJGJ0zxBJbJex7G8SXVhHd9ZxtIG0iZ_jDOVxMYXjg9A_9$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;‘Druk’ or ‘Another Round’&lt;/a&gt;, which won the Oscar for best international film in 2021. I recommend it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the film a group of four school teacher friends decide to test the hypothesis of a Norwegian psychologist that humans have a deficiency of alcohol in their blood, and the protagonists undertake an experiment to maintain a ‘warm’ level of alcohol in their blood. It is an experiment I attempt often, but the real lesson today is with central banking.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It seems that central bankers have decided that in the spirit of ‘Druk’, the liquidity in the world financial system is not sufficient and have set out to administer near daily injections of cheap money. The number of central banks changing policy (i.e. to negative) is the greatest it has been, apart from the global financial crisis and the COVID period. In September alone there have been 24 rate cuts from central banks around the world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Chief amongst these has been the 50-basis point cut from the Federal Reserve and the very dramatic, multiple policy moves by China. In short China has cut rates, infused the banking system, made mortgages cheaper and generally tried to spread liquidity over the emerging cracks in China’s economy. In the spirit of ‘Druk’ it is the equivalent of going on a five day bender in order to cure a serious disease.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Nonetheless, the easing in policy from the Fed and China, together with what will likely be a couple of more rate cuts this year from the European Central Bank mean that the world financial system is flush with liquidity. Chinese markets – hitherto the worst performing markets of a major economy – show the impact and importance of liquidity. The market cap of the Hang Seng index has grown by a quarter in less than two weeks. China has overtaken the US in terms of equity market performance to date.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There is no change to fundamentals – I don’t see this policy move having a decisive impact on the downward trend in Chinese earnings, but that doesn’t matter in the near term – liquidity is coursing through the pipes of the Chinese financial system, and in turn might bring a temporary easing to conditions in the property market.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For all the analysts who devote time to measuring earnings and calibrating valuations, the reality is that in this era of ‘quick to please’ monetary policy, liquidity matters a lot for asset prices. My rule of thumb in constructing a measure of liquidity would encompass money supply, the state of central bank balance sheets, the key role of the dollar and net issuance of debt by treasuries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The arcane notion of financial liquidity has attracted enough attention that the Financial Times recently ran an article breaking down its component parts. A couple of top-flight economics consultancies run their own measures of liquidity – such as LongView Economics and Michael Howell at CrossBorder Capital. The latter holds that we are on the cusp of a significant upswing in global liquidity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If that is true, the implication for markets is ‘Druk’- a persistent giddyiness whilst central banks keep rates low and liquidity flush, amidst an acceptable level of GDP and profit growth. This is the kind of macro climate we have seen in the mid and late 1990’s, and one that tends to dampen the market implications of turbulent geopolitics.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;From the point of view of asset prices, there are a couple of possible trajectories. Historically, the Fed has started to cut interest rates when the price to earnings ratio on the S&amp;amp;P 500 has been close to 10 times (1960’s to 1990’s). Now, like in 2000, it is in the mid 20’s which suggests that extra liquidity now could run asset prices in bubble territory proper, and cultivate the next bout of inflation, something the central banks’ bank, the BIS, has warned about (helpfully the BIS has taken a counter view to that of its members ahead of a number of crisis).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For the time being, the upturn in liquidity may be most meaningful for capital markets activity and assets in the private economy. They have been in the doldrums. If the ‘Druk’ hypothesis is working we should see a rise in IPO activity into 2025, and intensification in private equity deals and a rise in funding activity (beyond AI firms) in venture.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then, later in 2025, the hangover will arrive.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Druk

&lt;p&gt;Minister for Finance Jack Chambers announced his first Budget to the Dáil, detailing a host of tax and cost of living measures. This announcement will be followed by the Finance Bill next week, which we expect to confirm other measures, such as amendments to the Standard Fund Threshold. This along with the other recommendations outlined in the&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/standard-fund-threshold-set-to-increase&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; report of the independent examination of the Standard Fund Threshold (SFT)&lt;/a&gt; may have an impact on your retirement planning. A lot of these recommendations for change are long overdue and we have outlined the most important details that may affect you below.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What the recent Standard Fund Threshold changes could mean for you&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On 18th September, Minister Chambers announced several positive changes with regards to pensions ahead of the Finance Bill for 2025. These were announced on the back of a review &amp;amp; recommendations conducted by an independent expert, Dr. Donal de Buitléir. While these changes are still at a very high level and with additional details still to emerge with regards to some of the finer details, they could have a significant impact on how you can plan for your retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Standard Fund Threshold (SFT)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The SFT is the maximum tax-efficient pension fund in Ireland, and it has been set at €2million since 2014. However, the recent announcement is set to see this rise to €2.8million by 2029, with the threshold rising by €200,000 per annum from 2026 – 2029. From 2030 onwards, the threshold is then set to rise in line with an applicable level of growth each year (yet to be determined).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chargeable Excess Tax (CET)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The reason the SFT plays such a key part in retirement planning is that any funds that exceed this €2million limit are subject to a CET of 40%. This tax has been considered overly punishing for those with high pension potential, as the 40% excess could be taxed again once pension income is drawn.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the rate of CET is to remain unchanged for now, a review of this is due to take place by 2030, with a rate as low as 10% recommended.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Retirement Lump Sums&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Under the current rules, a lifetime tax-efficient lump sum of €500,000 can be taken from all combined pension pots. The first €200,000 of this is tax free, while the remaining €300,000 is subject to a standard rate tax of 20% (up to a total of €60,000).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This lump sum amount is not set to rise and will remain at €500,000. It was previously linked as a proportion (25%) of the SFT, but this link is due to be severed and the €500,000 will instead remain as a fixed amount.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Currently, you can receive a credit for any tax paid on a lump sum above the €200,000 with any CET liability to avoid double taxation in this space (so the first €60,000 of CET could be offset against the €60,000 standard tax on a lump sum amount of €500,000). However, if the CET rate be reduced to the recommended 10% in future, then this credit will also likely be abolished. However, this will be reviewed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Other recommendations of interest included in the report&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The removal of annual pension and age-related contribution limits on schemes&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• A review of the capitalisation factors used to determine the overall value of Defined Benefit pension schemes with regards to the SFT, with a decrease in the current age-related factors recommended. This review will be applicable to benefits accrued since 01 January 2014&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Potential allowance for any CET payments to be spread over 20 years instead of a once-off up-front cost to private sector workers&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• A review of the connection between a Pension Adjustment Order (PAO) and the SFT. However, this would need further legal advice to advance any specific proposal.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What this means for you&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While some of these recommendations are in their early stages, they could have a significant impact on your overall pension pot at retirement, depending on where you are in your retirement planning journey and your specific circumstances.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is particularly important if you’re due to retire in 2025 as the changes to SFT limits are not due to come into effect until 2026.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is equally important if you have previously drawn benefits from a pension plan, as depending on the amounts, you may or may not have scope for additional pension funding.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is also an opportunity to revise existing contribution and investment strategies to ensure you are maximising your retirement drawdown potential.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Therefore, it is essential to review your pension strategy with your adviser to receive careful and considered retirement planning advice. They will advise you on the best course of action to take in respect of these changes to ensure you achieve your specific retirement goals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;All eyes will now be focused on the Finance Bill announcement next week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;PRSA Contributions for Business Owners&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While there was no mention of changes to company contribution limits in the Budget, this may change when the Finance Bill is published next week.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Increase to Capital Acquisitions Tax (CAT) Thresholds&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A welcome addition to Budget 2025 was the announcement that the Lifetime CAT thresholds will increase for the first time since 2019. This has mainly been in response to the rapid increase seen in property prices over the past few years and will allow for a greater transfer of wealth between generations without triggering a tax liability.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Group A Threshold&lt;/strong&gt; (parent to child) increasing from €335,000 to&lt;strong&gt; €400,000.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Group B Threshold&lt;/strong&gt; (grandchildren and other relatives) increasing from €32,500 to &lt;strong&gt;€40,000.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Group C Threshold&lt;/strong&gt; (other) increasing from €16,250 to&lt;strong&gt; €20,000.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There was no mention of a change to the CAT rate of 33% so this will still apply to any amounts above the new thresholds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There were also no changes noted to the Small Gift Exemption of €3,000 per annum.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The changes to the CAT rates allow for new opportunities for lifetime gifting and estate planning, and we recommend you discuss this with your Unio Adviser.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Retirement Relief&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This relief is often used when passing on a business to the next generation. CGT at 33% may be due on the gains made by the parent passing on the business to their child. Changes were announced in last year’s budget to the upper age limit and the amounts that can be relieved.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An additional change was announced in Budget 2025 outlining that if the child continues to hold the shares in the business for 12 years, this CGT will be abated in full.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While this is another welcome addition, a cautious approach should be taken until the full mechanics of how this will be implemented are finalised.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Other Changes of Note&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The amount that can be relieved under the popular Employment Incentive Investment Scheme (EIIS) has been doubled from €500,000 to €1 million.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Further information on tax relief on the auto-enrolment scheme, to be introduced from September 2025 as per latest guidance, was provided. Employer contributions can be relieved for tax, and growth on the pension assets will be free of tax.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The Standard rate tax cut off increased from €42,000 to €44,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Personal tax credits increased by €125 to a new threshold of €1,875.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• 4% rate of USC decreased to 3% with a new entry point of €27,382.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Stamp duty on residential property increases with immediate effect. Rates as follows: 1% to €1m, 2% on next €500,000, 6% on excess above €1.5m.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• State Pension increased by €12 per week to €289.70.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• A generous cost of living package was introduced.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Unio-Budget-2025-Highlights.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;View a summary of key Budget 2025 highlights here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would like to discuss how these changes could affect your personal financial plans, speak to your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Budget 2025 Highlights

&lt;p&gt;The Boston Tea Party is an early example of how a trade dispute can reshape an economy (Boston) and foment political change. It is iconic enough that the first presidency of Donald Trump was prefigured by the rise of the Tea Party as a disruptive force in Republican politics.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With the presidential election not far off now, tariffs form the spear-end of Donald Trump’s economic strategy, potentially because he can implement them unilaterally (without the approval of the Senate). In addition, many of his acolytes, from Robert Lighthizer to Peter Navarro, are ‘trade’ obsessed, and have recently published books like ‘No Trade is Free‘ to underline the ways in which they would re-order the international trade system.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, other members of the Trump entourage such as Robert O’Brien, the National Security Adviser (2019-21) has in the July edition of Foreign Affairs Journal invoked the idea that America can bring peace to a disordered world through ‘strength’. In this vision, strength comes in the form of 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and export controls, a message that has repeatedly been emphasised by Trump himself.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that context, a second Trump presidency could begin with a trade war, and a verbal assault on the currencies of ostensible allies that have weakened in recent years, such as the Japanese yen. American consumers and potentially the bond market might pay the price of tariffs &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/sovereign-debt-funds&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;(we wrote last week that Trump wanted to fund the development of a sovereign wealth fund with revenues from tariffs)&lt;/a&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Trade wars are generally not successful, and while Trump may have in mind America’s trade spats with Japan (1987), the weight of past trade disputes going back to the Smoot Hawley Act suggest that there are better ways to guard American economic power. China could respond with measures that cripple supply chains for at least a couple of years. In this scenario, a trade confrontation between the US and China would decisively shatter the axis of globalisation as we know it, and finally render the WTO (World Trade Organisation) obsolete.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A US-China trade war might have many other consequences.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One might be the rise of populous south Asian (and south east Asian) from India to Bangladesh to Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, with Singapore as their organising locus. Many of these countries are urbanising and rolling out infrastructure, most of them need but distrust China, and in most cases aspire to closer commercial ties to the USA. Tariffs on China by the USA will accelerate supply chain de-risking by Western multinationals towards these countries, though this could well complicate their relationship with China.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A second consideration is Europe. The EU has been caught by surprise by the consequences of several Biden administration policies – the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act – which illustrates that US international trade policy is usually made with a view to domestic politics. A second Trump presidency should be no surprise to Brussels, and there is a small but important team of officials working on a policy response to a potential trade war on Europe by Trump.&amp;nbsp;Europe’s trump card may lie in its role as a partner with the US against China. It will be difficult for Washington to reshape trade relations with China, Europe and potentially Japan by taking each one on. Stymieing China is better done in collaboration with Japan and Europe, and Trump should really see the constraints of the policy situation that faces him.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A second Trump presidency will be different to the first in the sense that he has had time to prepare for it, and crucially, his supporters have had four years to concoct a policy strategy (‘2025’ seems to have dropped out of headlines). In the same way, a Harris presidency comes with deeper reserves of policy experts, and to a large sense on the international trade and economic outlook, the Harris case represents ‘more of the same’ in terms of the techno-strategic economic policy that is currently pursued by the White House.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An idealised, and though I like the idea a lot, too lofty rendition of this policy is Walter Russell’s Mead’s September Foreign Affairs essay entitled ‘The Return of Hamiltonian Statecraft’ which argues for the very unTrumpian notion of ‘enlightened patriotism’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, a Harris White House would use trade and investment policy to laser focus on America’s race with China for global supremacy. Driving Chinese economic and investment activity further inwards might be one goal, and ironically anything Washington can do to make Chinese public life more closed and repressive, the better (because it curbs innovation and wealth creation).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, the US and Europe, would both pursue parallel strategies of ‘strategic autonomy’ or what Trump refers to as ‘strategic national manufacturing’ focused on sectors like defence, new computing power (quantum, AI, data storage and management), batteries and new power sources and revolutionary medicine. Europe’s challenge is to find a way of reducing long-term energy costs.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Kamala Harris, who has trialled a few incoherent policies (taxes on unrealised capital gains, price controls) is likely to be more constrained in her fiscal policy – because her government is likely to instinctively focus more on tax and spending changes, for which she will need the help of the Senate (which in turn could tilt towards the Republicans). As such her fiscal policy will focus on not increasing the national debt, and like many other governments, encouraging the private sector to work with government to build out strategic technologies.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Another Tea Party

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning September 23rd, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/BZGxXt4dOOc?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-It was a frantic week for macro news with three of the world&#39;s largest central banks making interest rate calls.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The biggest news was the 50bps cut made by the Federal Reserve, somewhat catching analysts and economists off guard as most had priced in a 25bps cut. The cut, which took the base rate to 5.0%, indicated the Feds growing focus on a softening labour market versus the subsiding inflation challenge.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-In the UK, the Bank of England held its base rate at 5.0%, in an 8-1 vote, with uncertainty growing as to the outlook of the UK economy. The same story was true in Japan, with the Bank of Japan holding their base rate at 0.25%. The net result saw global equities rise over the week, up 0.7%.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The US market drove the returns, whilst both Europe and UK equities were negative on the week. Gold continued its strong rally, up 1.5% whilst crude oil jumped 4.5% due to declining global stockpiles and a sharp interest rate cut from the Fed.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The US 10yr-2yr yield curve “uninverted” as it headed back above 0% for the first time since early July 2022. Stable economic data coupled with a 50bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve gave investors confidence over the future of both short and medium term rates in the US.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCZLGLZ5YTB5ATPLSTO4ZHR4THQQ?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Chart of the Week 23 09 2024&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxrY&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCZLGLZ5YTB5ATPLSTO4ZHR4THQQ&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;chart of week.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Equities &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MC7P4QOQYY2JGGXBRZFNMYPAZNNA?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Equities Chart 23 09 2024&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxrd&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MC7P4QOQYY2JGGXBRZFNMYPAZNNA&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;equities.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Bonds&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCN36VD2F2N5EW3OUEOMDZ4LIVMI?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Bonds Chart 23 09 2024&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxri&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCN36VD2F2N5EW3OUEOMDZ4LIVMI&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;bonds.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 23rd September 2024

&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-September-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read September&#39;s Global Macro Outlook in full.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this month’s Unio Global Macro Council, discussion shifted from global topics to focus on Ireland&#39;s domestic developments ahead of the budget on October 1st and a likely general election in the coming months.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland&#39;s economy is stronger than other European economies however, capacity constraints (housing, infrastructure) could slow growth. Political discourse in Ireland differs from other European countries, with less focus on security and defence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland benefits from foreign direct investment, particularly from US tech firms, but risks are posed by potential US-EU trade tensions. Focus should be on domestic reforms, reducing business costs, and supporting tech start-ups to ensure future economic resilience.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read more in this month&#39;s Outlook.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Time for Small Tech

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One of the attractions of elections is that they throw up new ideas and policy proposals – and it is not unkind to say that one increasingly gets the impression of politicians throwing suggestions at the ‘policy wall’ to see what sticks. Aggressive tariffs on China and taxes on unrealised capital gains are two examples from the US.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One idea that Democrats and Republicans share is the proposed establishment of a sovereign wealth fund in the US. In the case of Donald Trump, his aim is to fund it with tariff revenues, whilst the Democrats conceive a sovereign wealth fund that might take stakes in firms in strategic industries, which is a very French idea (recalling the ‘strategic yoghurt policy’ of 2005). The flaw in this particular idea, is that there is in fact no money to capitalise such a fund.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In stark contrast, I recall the last time Washington pondered a sovereign wealth fund was at the end of the Clinton presidency, when Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin had in a financial ‘end of history’ moment, engineered a fiscal surplus (government earning more than it is spending). At the time, the sense was that surpluses would feed a ‘social security’ sovereign wealth fund, which would allow Americans to enjoy a prosperous retirement.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What is striking is that if you look at the history of America’s financial health, the Rubin/Clinton surplus is an anomalous blip. Since then, the US has registered nearly a quarter of a century of deficits, which irregardless of the level of growth of the economy,&lt;a href=&quot;https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; seem to get bigger (relative to the economy) every year.&lt;/a&gt; These burgeoning deficits are starting to take their toll on the US (and I should mention many other large developed economies – Britain and France prominently so), as its debt level rises beyond 100% to GDP (expected to hit 122% in 2035). It is a very odd situation. In textbook economics, large deficits tend to exist in times of war, recession or crisis. As such, if any of these occurs, there will be scant room for governments to help the economy (and rescue plans may become a trial of strength of central banks).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That’s not all. Readers will sense that I am writing more and more about indebtedness, and it is indeed becoming a preoccupation of mine. The idea of the ‘Age of Debt’ is that debt is becoming pervasive, and as a factor will weigh on geopolitics, the tenor of political debates and the shaping of the financial markets of the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context, once we get beyond the rise of election campaigns and into 2025, governments will have to jettison dreams of sovereign wealth funds and instead subject themselves to debt sustainability analysis. It is akin to a household giving up a dream of buying a second home as their bank manager demands that the mortgage and credit card balance are paid off first.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Debt sustainability analysis is one of those arcane activities in economics, and I can count at least three friends who can run their own debt sustainability models, which is not something I should readily admit. The essence of debt sustainability analysis is that the future debt load (and its precariousness) of a country are driven by a set of factors – the rate at which a government spends, the inflation adjusted interest rate it pays, growth and demographics. These factors are inter-related – borrowing that is deployed to productive investment can produce growth and thus reduce the risks associated with debt for instance. Today, the rapid acceleration in the indebtedness of many countries, low growth and ebbing demographics are some of the factors that make debt increasingly unsustainable.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If that was a reasonably technical explanation, the best parallel I can think of to communicate debt sustainability is climate sustainability – or at least both sets of analysis point to a world that is heating up, and where there is relatively little reaction to this. Debt and climate sustainability analyses are long-term processes, and my sense is that governments gladly ignore them, until they become immediately problematic.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That is beginning to happen. France’s bond spread (over Germany) is elevated, and British bond yields are close to 4%. Neither country can afford to increase debt levels. The same is true for Canada. In the US, next February will see the installation of the new Treasury Secretary, and he or she will have the difficult task of telling the next President that there is no money in the kitty.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As such, the establishment of sovereign wealth funds is a distant, fluffy dream for most governments. A violent lesson here is that Ireland had a sovereign wealth fund in the early 2000’s, but it was swallowed up in the consequences of the euro-zone financial crisis, and is only now being re-established.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For those sovereign wealth funds that exist – in Norway or Saudi Arabia – the next trade may not be to buy quoted equities and private equity, but to either buy the discounted debt of developed countries when they have their sustainability crisis, or to engage in private lending to them. When that happens, a new shift in geoeconomic power will be under way.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Sovereign Debt Funds

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 16th September, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/IVYhODn3Dzs?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;In summary:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It’s a very busy week on the macro front as some big central banks will be making interest rate calls. Up first is the Federal Reserve, who will make an interest rate decision on the 18th, the following day, the Bank of England will make an interest rate call. And finally, on the 20th, inflation data in Japan will be released along with a Bank of Japan interest rate call.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One earnings report to look out for this week is FedEx, which will release its Q1 2025 earnings on the 19th. The transportation and e-commerce business is classed as a ‘bellweather’ stock and is often used as a gauge the overall strength of the US economy. On the same day, British clothes retailer Next Plc will post their Q2 earnings whilst General Mills will post their results on the 18th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Chinese 10-year yield reached 2.07% over the last week, its lowest level in history, as the economy continues to stumble. There is an expectation that the Chinese government will have to introduce further stimulus measures in an effort to spark growth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCIWCDZOP3TBBQLIX7Y6CIASM4FQ?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxqV&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCIWCDZOP3TBBQLIX7Y6CIASM4FQ&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;chart of week.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Equities Chart&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MC57RY5TDTZZADJLJ76WJINKJNRU?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxqa&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MC57RY5TDTZZADJLJ76WJINKJNRU&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;equities.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Bonds Charts&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCSUCD4BVSQBHZLN7PR2KEZ2RZJY?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxqf&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCSUCD4BVSQBHZLN7PR2KEZ2RZJY&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;bonds.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 16th September 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Next week the Federal Reserve will very likely cut interest rates, for the first time since the COVID related rate cutting cycle. Recall of course that at the end of this speedy sets of cuts, most of the leading central banks had declared inflation to be ‘transitory’. The Fed cut will come on the back of a series of rate cuts from ‘elder’ central banks – the Bank of England, Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank, as well as the European Central Bank from whom we had another rate cut last week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The anticipated move by the Federal Reserve is instructive in several respects. Market based interest rates are lower than Fed rates and many investors expect (or rather crave) the Fed to make a 50 basis point cut, as opposed to a ‘standard’ one of 25 basis points. This is yet another sign of monetary addiction – the result of the conditioning of investors to financial liquidity. In mid-August, following a dip in the stock market, I wrote that the idea of the ‘Fed put’ – the notion that the Fed would react to a fall in asset prices by cutting rates – is very much alive in markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The market dip led several seasoned and apparently credible investors to call for an emergency cut in rates. However, the Fed has only ever taken such dramatic action in the thick of deep crises (LTCM/Russian economic collapse, the &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/dot.com__;!!O22_8FOSssc!n93_x9tgNzXgcJj32jmBktfQDQ32cMgOg6eNjoW6aAzCD4zetXuDqHaCIZ3BFl-x88ULD8Qa2w93iMjO_mlwNyNs$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;dot.com&lt;/a&gt; collapse, 9/11, the global financial crisis and the COVID crisis). Similarly, it has not begun a rate cutting cycle with a 50 basis point cut, outside of financial crises. There is no financial crisis today (though plenty of mounting financial risks such as very high debt levels), but a crisis of expectations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That crisis of expectations is at play as investors position for the Fed meeting next week. In my experience, the Fed is, in normal economic conditions, a cautious and slow-moving beast, and it would be untypical for them to begin a rate cutting phase with an outsized rate cut. To do so would suggest that they are in a hurry to correct a mistake of their own making.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;To that extent, investor behaviour that demands a 50-basis point cut, recalls the quip from Paul Samuelson, the first winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, that the market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Set against this apparent concern by investors (do they fear a recession or desire lower rates?) is a debate around a relatively new economic rule of thumb called the Sahm Rule, named after research by economist Claudia Sahm at the Federal Reserve. Her rule states that when the medium-term unemployment rate rises an impending recession is signalled (the three month average of unemployment needs to rise by 50 basis points). It is a surprisingly simple rule that appears to have prefigured eleven US downturns going back to 1953. Sahm’s aim in establishing a reliable rule was that stimulus checks can be sent out at the outset of recessions (as opposed to waiting for GDP data to indicate a recession).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I am tempted to trump the Sahm Rule with two observations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is Goodhart’s Law, named after Bank of England and LSE economist Charles Goodhart which states that ‘when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure’, or more colloquially that fame kills a good model.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;More seriously, most of the last ten business cycles were conventional ones, whereas this business cycle bears the scars of reversing demographics, the lingering effects of COVID fiscal policy and labour market distortions (work from home) not to mention the contortions of strategic industrial policy (i.e. the CHIP’s Act, Inflation Reduction Act) and the political ramifications of high inflation and immigration. It is anything but a typical business cycle, and very hard to read.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Somewhat unusually at this stage in the cycle government finances are weak (from France to the US) whilst the large corporates of the Western world are in a generally healthy financial state. Of the major economies, China poses the greatest risk to the downside in the near-term.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;With different components of the US economy moving in different directions, my expectation is for a slowdown than a deeper recession (this may eventually come at the end of 2025 if inflation rises again). Equally, I expect the Fed to make a series of rate cuts rather than deep cutting cycle. If that view is correct, the interest rates market will be very volatile, as investors periodically over react to data points and price in ‘booms’ and busts’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Expect a market tantrum next week with investors complaining that the Fed is behind the curve. Samuelson would tell us that the curve has got it wrong.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Samuelson vs. Sahm

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 9th September, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/yy8M0pyam9k?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;In Summary&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;The market’s focus this week will be on Europe, as the ECB will make an interest rate call on the 12th. Earlier this summer President Lagarde indicated that rate cuts were on the table for the September meeting and with August’s headline inflation rate (2.2%) hitting its lowest level since July 2021, the market is pricing in a 25bps cut from the current rate of 4.25% and there looks to be further flexibility for the ECB to continue cutting.&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;In the US, headline and core inflation data will be published on the 11th. The current rate stands at 2.9% and 3.2% respectively. A weaker print could increase the likelihood of a larger rate cut at the end of the month. Its also worth noting Chinese inflation data was issued today, with the headline rate coming in at 0.6% up from 0.5% in July.&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;There are still some large software companies left to publish their earnings this week. Two of the big beneficiaries of AI demand, Oracle (1Q25) and Adobe (3Q24) will report today and on the 12th respectively.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Normally once the Fed begins a rate cutting cycle, the 10-year yield falls quickly in response. As the September Fed meeting approaches, the question arises ‘will the 10 year yield behave in the same way as it has historically when rates are cut?’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCMGQYUJZ55VF7BNPHVUFNDGTWA4?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxpJ&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCMGQYUJZ55VF7BNPHVUFNDGTWA4&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Chart of Week.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Equities Chart&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCZGUN6DQAWFAWBGC3FGFS4BVMUM?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxpO&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCZGUN6DQAWFAWBGC3FGFS4BVMUM&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Equities.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Bonds Charts&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCHPPKOIV4KZBXPPODFGP3KQSOGM?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fxpT&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCHPPKOIV4KZBXPPODFGP3KQSOGM&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Bonds.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span&gt;﻿&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 9th September 2024

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Join our next webinar&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Learn how you can optimise your retirement savings&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the run up to the Budget on October 1st, there is a significant opportunity to optimise your retirement savings in the most tax efficient way. Directors and other senior employees can currently benefit from an increased scope for company pension contributions when they’re paid into a PRSA.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Agenda&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Join to hear our expert panel explain this and more pensions changes on the horizon:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. The Immediate Opportunity: How flexible contributions to a PRSA may significantly enhance the amount you and your company can pay into your pension.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2. Changes on the horizon: How PRSA funding rules could be revised in the upcoming Budget.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It’s important that you consider your options. We want to make sure that your pension is structured in the best way possible to fund your retirement.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Speakers&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Aine McGroarty, Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Dixon, Head of Independent Wealth, and Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning at Unio Wealth Management.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Joining Instructions&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Date: Tuesday, 10th September, 2024&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Time: 11:00 to 11:30am&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/240792388643140702&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Register here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we want you to plan for the retirement you deserve. Pensions and their rules and regulation is an ever-changing world. To ensure that you can make the most of your wealth, and to explore the best solutions for your circumstances, talk to your Unio adviser who can help you navigate pension changes and so much more, or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;get in touch here&lt;/a&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

The Irish Pensions Landscape

&lt;p&gt;In 2018, Pavel Durov the founder of messaging app Telegram, dined with Emmanuel Macron, and for his troubles was later awarded a French passport. Durov should have known that as a French citizen, the state will get you at some stage in your life, and so last week he was arrested in France. Durov’s story is layered with intrigue, and it is not immediately obvious what strategy is being played out here.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, it is one of a growing number of tales that illustrate what will be one of the great trends of the 21st century, the tension between the power generated by technology and its effect on democracy. Other examples are the disputes between Elon Musk and diverse governments (the UK and Brazil), the difficult passage of the Californian AI Bill, and the apparent Department of Justice antitrust probe into Nvidia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equally, technology weighs on many public policy debates now – such as the access to mobile phones in schools, the demands that data centres place on electricity grids and the TikTok-ification of politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Technology is a source of wealth, economic growth and power. The historic outperformance of large US technology firms on the stock market is a manifestation of the first effect, while the ways in which governments, in what could politely be termed less than democratic governments, crave the means by which they can use technology (notably social media) to marshall their citizens is worrying. The countries of the MENA region post the Arab Spring is an example, and of course China is the benchmark here. Democracies at least, have better instincts, and most of them are trying to curb the negative side-effects of the power of technology firms and entrepreneurs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, many of them find the burden of oversight frustrating.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the striking debates I participated in over the summer was the Rencontres Economiques, where across a range of European policy makers there was great frustration at the dictum ‘America innovates, China replicates and Europe regulates’. In particular, there is frustration in Europe at the relatively shallow pools of capital available to scale up technology firms, but it must be said few politicians are willing to do much to help.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Europeans are equally frustrated with the view that their competence is in regulation, rather than innovation, but I am beginning to wonder if Europe has in fact gotten out in front, notably so with its EU AI Act.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The EU AI Act is only just coming into operation, and it has its flaws, but its strength is that it is based on a broad, clear framework. In contrast, what is starting to become clear in the US is that in the absence of legislation (Senator Chuck Schumer’s AI regulatory initiative is seen as a ‘roadmap’) the effort to curb the power of large social media and AI firms on society will be piece-meal. I suspect for instance there will be a lot more civil and corporate legal cases to establish the ownership of data-sets and the access to them by AI engines, as is the case between the New York Times and OpenAI.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, the lack of a regulatory framework to steer the development of AI and social media risks tension between different arms of the state. In the US the Department of Justice is taking aim at a range of social media sites that are suspected of coming under Russian influence, and the antitrust investigation into Nvidia risks cutting across the Biden administration’s security driven economic policy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many of these contradictions and challenges are laid out in an excellent, new book entitled ‘The Tech Coup’ by Marietje Schaake, that whilst written in the US, has a decidedly European tone (the author was an MEP). She argues for a more precautionary approach to the mass roll out of new technologies, with specific limits on technologies like spyware, facial recognition systems and crypto-currencies, and much greater transparency on the uses and finance of AI. These are sensible proposals, but likely the very opposite of what Donald Trump might instigate as a set of policies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thus, the tension between democracy and the power of technology will intensify – driven by at least two factors. The first is the geostrategic importance of technology – in particular data consuming and content producing technologies (which explains why the US has been so keen to limit the power of China’s TikTok).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second, which many legal frameworks have great difficulty in encompassing, is the arrival of the ‘tech bro’, wealthy individuals, who consider themselves above the law, and in some cases, beyond common decency. While some politicians seem dazzled by these ‘bros’, democratic states should not bend to their wills, and as a rule democratic states tend to outlast tycoons.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Technology Vs. Democracy

&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCSUXQ4CBD5VFOLHJVPSTMIUB2XQ?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio ICRA Overall Winner John Murphy, Howth Yacht Club&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqSa&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCSUXQ4CBD5VFOLHJVPSTMIUB2XQ&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Unio ICRA Overall Winner John Murphy, Howth Yacht Club .JPG&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio ICRA National Championship 2024 Overall Winner John Murphy of Outrajeous and ICRA Commodore Denis Byrne (right) at the Royal Irish Yacht Club, Dun Laoghaire.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It was fair winds and sunshine for the Irish Cruiser Racing (ICRA) National Championships 2024&amp;nbsp;on the last weekend in August in the elegant surrounding of the Royal Irish Yacht Club.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It was a first for Unio Wealth Management to sponsor the ICRAs and we are delighted to be associated with such an esteemed date in the Irish sailing calendar, a true celebration of excellence, teamwork and adaptability, all principles Unio stands by - charting a safe course for our clients, albeit from the comfort of dry land.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Well done to the 60 yachts and over 500 crew who competed, and congratulations to&lt;strong&gt; John Murphy and crew of the J/109 Outrajeous (Howth YC)&lt;/strong&gt; who won the 2024 Unio ICRA Nationals Overall Champion title.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thank you to ICRA, the officers and members of the Royal Irish Yacht Club and Race Director Mark McGibney for making the weekend such a success.&amp;nbsp;A perfect end to the ICRA racing season.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled, full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCD4ZXF5522JDMXIF7IR7K7GDK4E?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio ICRA Overall Winner John Murphy and crew, Howth Yacht Club&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqSc&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCD4ZXF5522JDMXIF7IR7K7GDK4E&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Unio ICRA Overall Winner John Murphy and crew, Howth Yacht Club .JPG&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;John Murphy, helmsman Neil Spain and crew of the J/109 Outrajeous (Howth YC) celebrate their win.&lt;/p&gt;

Unio ICRA National Championships 2024

&lt;p&gt;In today’s hectic world there is an ever-growing list of stressors that weigh on our minds. When asked to identify sources of stress, money emerges as a recurring theme. As a personal financial adviser, I often find myself acting as a coach and mentor, helping clients make informed decisions and keeping them on the path to financial wellbeing.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Renowned satirist Jonathan Swift once famously said, “A wise person should have money in their head, but not in their heart.” By effectively managing our money, we gain control over our finances, creating opportunities for personal and professional growth, and helping us attain that all important peace of mind.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Working with the right adviser can help coordinate all aspects of your financial life so you can focus on what is most important to you and making the right choices in life for you and your family. It is an ongoing relationship built on trust and, when done correctly, your adviser will become an integral part of your life, your counsel for financial and more importantly life decisions. You can take comfort knowing that they will have the time, attention, and expertise to address every aspect of your finances while you focus on living.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Peace of Mind&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A recent study by the Financial Planning Standards Board (FPSB) (1) revealed that clients who work with a Certified Financial Planner experience a significantly higher quality of life. These clients report increased confidence and satisfaction regarding their financial situations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Furthermore, the study identified “reducing financial worries and stress” as one of the top three benefits that financial planners provide to their clients. This is especially significant in Ireland, which has a rich tapestry of culture, values, and behaviours that shape how we approach wealth and financial management.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What Keeps You up at Night?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Clients often remark that they appreciate the clarity and focus they get from a financial planning meeting. By looking at the bigger picture, we move the conversation away from the spread sheet and facilitate those deeper conversations about a client’s concerns and aspirations. What’s on your mind? What do you want to achieve in life and how can we help you get there?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Typically, your financial plan should establish important long term personal financial goals and shorter-term objectives. A long-term goal might be starting to save for your child’s future or achieving a particular income level in retirement. A typical shorter-term objective may be to reduce debt or increase pension savings. Your plan sets out your goals and describes a clear ‘route map’ of what you need to do to achieve them. Using financial modelling software, we build a picture of what your financial future might look like and work through accumulation strategies or simply give you the peace of mind that you are on track.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Additionally, your financial plan might include other practical steps such as ensuring you have an up-to date will in place or an enduring power of attorney.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your financial legacy and efficiently passing on wealth might also be an important consideration and ensuring that you have the right structures in place to do so tax efficiently may be a priority for you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Behavioural Aspect of Wealth Management&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many individuals carry beliefs about money that can hinder their financial success. For some clients, cultural attitudes towards wealth may instil feelings of guilt or fear of judgment. Partnering with our clients and coaching them on these limiting beliefs, enables them to adopt a more empowering mindset towards wealth accumulation and management.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, in Ireland there is a cultural reticence for people to invest beyond traditional bank deposits and that can hold us back as a country. This can often result in missed opportunities for growth, leading to financial uncertainty in the long run.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In contrast, a cohesive financial plan including an investment plan tailored to your goals can offer potential for higher returns, helping you build wealth more effectively. Knowing that your finances are actively working towards your future can reduce financial stress, contributing to greater peace of mind.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio advisers are also here to help clients navigate the stress and anxiety that sometimes accompanies financial decisions. Understanding what drives emotional reactions can lead to more rational and well-thought-out investment choices.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Top 5 Benefits of Working with a Financial Planner&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;(1)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. Improved Financial Wellbeing and Peace of Mind: Knowing your finances are in order allows you to sleep soundly, free from the anxieties of unexpected financial troubles.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2. Simplified Financial Matters: Financial planners help demystify complex financial concepts, making it easier for clients to understand and manage their finances.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;3. Enhanced Confidence in Financial Decisions: With expert guidance, clients can make informed decisions, reducing the stress and uncertainty often associated with managing money.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;4. Increased Financial Freedom and Control: Effective financial planning provides clients with a sense of control over their financial future, leading to a more empowered and relaxed lifestyle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;5. Goal Setting and Achievement: Financial planners help clients establish and reach their personal and financial goals, contributing to overall life satisfaction and happiness.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we take a holistic view. Beyond financial advice, we consider and understand your life goals, ensuring that our advice and your financial plan align with your broader life aspirations. If you want to learn more, speak with a Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch with us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Rowena Kenny is a Qualified Financial Adviser, Chartered Accountant and Certified Life Coach with a background in Tax, Law, Business, Nursing and Fashion Design. Currently working in Unio Wealth Management, Rowena advises High Net Worth clients on savings and investments, life assurance, pensions, retirement planning and estate planning in line with client life goals and aspirations.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] FPSB Value Of Financial Planning Global Consumer Research 2023&lt;/p&gt;

When it comes to your finances, achieving peace of mind might be easier than you think.

&lt;p&gt;Hello and welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 02 September, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/pESJMqsi_d0?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;In Summary&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;Last week’s market movement was heavily influenced by the quarterly report of&amp;nbsp;Nvidia, which grew revenue 122% QoQ but still missed some extremely high expectations set by Wall Street analysts. This week, another big beneficiary of the AI boom, Broadcom, will post its Q3 earnings on the 5th. The semiconductor and software product business has seen its stock price rise an impressive 75.8% over the last year and 44.5% YTD.&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;On the macro side, the big news will come at the end of the week, when US unemployment and non-farm payroll data is released. Payroll growth has averaged 170k/month over the last quarter but the unemployment rate has still risen by 0.5% since the start of the year with the current unemployment rate standing at 4.3%.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;Prior to that, US manufacturing and services&amp;nbsp;PMI data will be published on the 3rd and 5th respectively. The manufacturing index currently stands at 46.8 and is expected to rise to 47.8 whilst the services PMI is expected to rise to 51.5. On the 4th, the Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.25%.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;After recent market volatility and as we head into the September, which is historically the worst performing month for equities (known as the “September effect”), investors might be looking more closely at safe haven assets like gold. However, with a growing expectation of falling US interest rates, it has already seen a strong rally relative to USD over the last year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCDRMDEMGN35DULGB6RMKMUUKNQU?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqRc&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCDRMDEMGN35DULGB6RMKMUUKNQU&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Chart of the Week 02 09 2024&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;chart of week.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Equities Chart &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCWJF6F7DED5D5ZKANFYNYNSAXCU?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqRe&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Equities Chart 02 09 2024&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCWJF6F7DED5D5ZKANFYNYNSAXCU&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;equities.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Bonds Charts &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCSY7RGQRWDFC5NHYRWK25TNXBYM?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqRh&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Bonds Chart 02 09 2024&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCSY7RGQRWDFC5NHYRWK25TNXBYM&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;bonds.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View, 2nd September 2024

&lt;p&gt;Have you ever thought about what your retirement will look like? Do you aspire to own a holiday home or the sports car you always dreamed of? If you could, would you financially support your children while they navigate the path to their chosen career?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The costs attached to these hopes and ambitions are personal financial goals that you should be setting as part of your financial plan. A bit like a route map, a financial plan guides you on your journey. There is a destination you want to get to and a few different paths you might have to think about along the way.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning at Unio, ,explains how working with a financial planning professional will help you focus on what is important to you, define your goals, and enables your financial planner to develop tailored advice, a plan to guide you on your journey and help track your progress.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Structuring a Financial Plan&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A comprehensive financial plan covers various aspects of your financial life, such a budgeting, saving, investments, insurance, tax strategies, retirement planning and estate planning.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Typically, your financial plan should establish important long term personal financial goals and shorter-term objectives. For example, it may include funding a child&#39;s education or achieving a particular income level in retirement goal – a long-term goal. The associated shorter-term objective may be to increase pension saving – it is what you need to do to make the goal a reality.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Additionally, your financial plan might include other practical steps such as ensuring you have an up-to date will in place or an enduring power of attorney. Your financial legacy and efficiently passing on wealth might also be an important consideration and ensuring that you have the right structures in place to do so tax efficiently may be another priority for you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your plan sets out your goals and details a clear ‘route map’ of what you need to do to achieve them.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;A financial plan is a great way of bringing order to your life and can empower you to make decisions around your finances.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1. Do I have enough?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once you put time into working through what is important to you and you have defined your financial goals, your financial planning professional will start to look at your current position. They consider your cashflow (what comes in and goes out each month) and your existing assets and any debts (such as mortgages). Using financial modelling software, they can help build a picture of what your financial future might look like and work through strategies to make the most of what you can build or simply give you the peace of mind that you are on track.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2. What I have I want to maintain and grow&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You work hard to build your wealth, and it is important to treat what you have with care. Underpinning a financial plan is the right investment strategy. This must be aligned with your need to access your money at various stages throughout your plan along with your own appetite for risk. Some of your money will need to be easily accessible for contingency planning as a ‘rainy day fund’ or shorter term known expenses. In the longer term, for example, for retirement planning, you may be able to consider higher risk investment strategies that give potential for greater returns while knowing over the long term you can withstand exposure to more volatile investment asset classes. Your investment strategy needs to work with your plan and enable you to protect and grow what you have so your money is there when you need it.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;3. Can I be more tax-efficient?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A financial planning professional can introduce strategies aimed at ensuring assets are tax efficiently built and maintained. Crucially they can also assist in maximising your tax efficiency at the point of retirement. It is also key to consider your legacy, including surplus personal or business assets and have strategies employed to pass assets tax-efficiently to your family at the right time.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;4. It’s not a one-off exercise.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This plan is your financial blueprint for life, it is a living thing, and we see its creation and ongoing assessment as a significant responsibility. Expert guidance will help steer you in the right direction. Life can throw curve balls and revisiting and updating your plan helps you to stay focused and allows you to adjust things if you hit bumps along the road. You can measure how far you have come on your journey and check you are still on track to achieve your goals.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;5. Am I too late to make a Financial Plan?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Like most things in life, the earlier you start, the better the outcome. While it is never too late, the sooner you engage with a financial planner the greater the benefit.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would like to find out more about how you can take control of your financial future, reach out to your Unio adviser or get in touch here.&lt;/p&gt;

Taking control of your financial future

&lt;p&gt;Have you ever wondered how much fixed income, equity or even private equity you should hold in your portfolio?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this week’s note, I want to give you a sense of the engineering behind one of the first ports of call for our clients – fitting them with the right portfolio is like getting the right set of clothes or medicine. Gauging a client’s appetite for risk and then building a portfolio around it is one of the first things we do, but it is also a topic that dominates the investment industry, and very different types of investor – from family offices to individuals to sovereign wealth funds – will have different points of view on what is the best mix of assets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One example, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/treasure-chest&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;which we have written about recently&lt;/a&gt; are endowments, as exemplified by the Yale model pioneered by David Swensen. Here, the top US university endowments – the likes of Yale, Harvard and Princeton – have since the 1980’s held up to a third of their portfolio assets in private assets such as private equity, and the performance of their approach has become famous.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A more typical finance-led approach to determining the composition of any portfolio is portfolio optimization – this may sound dreadfully boring and dry to our readers, and it is, but it is a process that is as important financially as the annual medical check-up is from a healthcare point of view.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The idea of portfolio optimization is to first gauge an investor’s tolerance for risk (i.e. what degree of asset price fluctuation they are prepared for, and the headline levels of expected return and risk they have in mind). Granted this, the optimization process, will produce a combination of assets that together, will deliver the appropriate level of return in the long run, given risk appetite.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is where it gets complicated.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, in a portfolio, it is important to have a mix of assets that are well diversified – that is, they don’t move the same way given underlying economic conditions. In most cases, the relationship between asset classes can be observed over time, and even modelled for different segments of the business cycle. For example, it is intuitive that equities would rise in a business cycle recovery, whereas government bonds might be flat to weaker in terms of performance…but those bonds are worth having as a safe haven in times of market and economic stress.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second, difficult element is trying to get a handle on how different assets might perform in the future. As a benchmark, historical returns can be helpful, and for those readers who are interested there are some decent databases of long run stock and bond returns, from the likes of &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/podcast/ripple-effect/stocks-for-the-long-run-jeremy-siegel/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gRutQq20lSNlusY6eDIbHyMQz3iJK6UHIIgq1JdkmZ3h3UsVHWXxL4sztD8VIMUMD_2GukWWVDBdJ72Cn5SgEcdK$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Jeremy Siegel at the University of Pennsylvania&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/www.econ.yale.edu/*shiller/data.htm__;fg!!O22_8FOSssc!gRutQq20lSNlusY6eDIbHyMQz3iJK6UHIIgq1JdkmZ3h3UsVHWXxL4sztD8VIMUMD_2GukWWVDBdJ72Cn7xLqyP2$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller&lt;/a&gt;. Perhaps the most comprehensive is the work of Professors Elroy Dimson and Paul Marsh whose &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/in-focus/2024/global-investment-returns-yearbook.html__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gRutQq20lSNlusY6eDIbHyMQz3iJK6UHIIgq1JdkmZ3h3UsVHWXxL4sztD8VIMUMD_2GukWWVDBdJ72Cn7nEipNe$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Investment Returns Yearbook publication&lt;/a&gt; is widely followed. They extensively research the performance of different asset classes over time and over 120 years find that the average real return on equities (USA) is just over 5%.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that regard, historic and periodic analysis of returns offers strategists a good benchmark and are always helpful when setting investor expectations for future returns.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Forecasting future returns involves more work and can be a lengthy process – as it requires long-term forecasts (often for different growth scenarios) for GDP, inflation, profit growth and interest rates to name a few variables. A good number of the large investment institutions now undertake this process – which in the industry is called ‘Capital Market Assumptions’. Much of their research material is available publicly and we have examined the CMAs of numerous different institutions including behemoths like Blackrock and &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/am.jpmorgan.com/ch/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/portfolio-insights/ltcma/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gRutQq20lSNlusY6eDIbHyMQz3iJK6UHIIgq1JdkmZ3h3UsVHWXxL4sztD8VIMUMD_2GukWWVDBdJ72Cn0DDDv1T$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;JP Morgan&lt;/a&gt; in order to highlight some of the research available in the industry.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The next step for portfolio strategists is to take this spectrum of expected returns (and risk) and blend them together to produce a portfolio that gives specific investors the best return for a given amount of risk.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we also have a lengthy, rigorous process to construct the parameters of our portfolios.&amp;nbsp;Utilising the breath of data available we model the relationships between asset classes which helps us define the Unio view of the investment world, in turn contributing to optimal portfolio design for our clients.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In determining a client’s long-term investment strategy, we seek to attain a balance between risk and reward in targeting a client’s financial goals given their risk appetite and investment time horizon. A key component of investment strategy design is identifying appropriate asset classes and these include equities, bonds, cash and alternatives. Within these asset categories we identify an optimal target asset allocation utilising the breath of the investment universe and supported by our extensive modelling capabilities, to create a diversified client portfolio.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Into the Future

&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-August-2024_Turns-Shifts-and-Cuts.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read August&#39;s Global Macro Outlook in full.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This month’s Unio Global Macro Council meeting was devoted to an analysis of the performance of investment styles at turning points in the economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It seems that a &#39;new regime’ is in place for interest rates. We discussed the change in behaviour of central banks from a tightening bias to a loosening one. In Europe, we also expect the ECB to continue cutting rates, and this has the potential to kickstart lending. Often turns in interest rates are also accompanied by shifts in the performance of inter-related asset classes, or investment styles. Read more in this month&#39;s report.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We were fortunate to be joined by guest speakers&amp;nbsp;Edward Rackham&lt;strong&gt;, &lt;/strong&gt;Co-Chief Investment Officer at Los Angeles Capital, Laszlo Tisler, Vice President, Portfolio Research at BlackRock, Stefan Poechhacker, Vice President at BlackRock and, Natasha Sarkaria, Investment Strategist, BlackRock. Thank you for your insights and expertise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Turns, Shifts and Cuts

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 26th August, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch our investment brief for the week ahead:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/z6SFdaiHynE?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week is dominated by inflation data which includes releases from Australia, Germany, and the Eurozone on the 28th, 29th and 30th respectively. The Eurozone flash estimate for core inflation is forecasted to be 2.8% for August, compared to 5.3% this time last year. Any signs of a persistence in pricing pressures could limit the ECB’s ability to deliver further rate cuts this year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the US, the focus will be on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, with July’s data released on the 30th. The day before the second estimate of GDP data for Q2 2024 will be released with the first estimate indicating the economic growth had accelerated to an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, compared to 1.4% of first quarter.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Earnings season is winding down, however, a few high-profile companies are still scheduled to report their quarterly results this week. Nvidia, releasing on the 28th of August will be the main highlight, with investors looking to the chipmaker for an indication of the overall health of the AI boom. It will also be worth looking out for the performance of Salesforce and CrowdStrike (following the recent IT outage caused by one of their software updates) who both post results on the 28th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We will shortly be entering into the month of September, which from a stock market perspective has historically been the worst performing month of the year. This is often referred to as the September Effect and has been attributed to investors’ seasonal behavioural bias.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCNHA5MF7SPRGW3O726SYGUYNZAE?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqQU&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Chart of the Week 26th August, 2024&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCNHA5MF7SPRGW3O726SYGUYNZAE&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Chart of the Week 26th Aug.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Equities Chart&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCJYYFK7KYRNATHMRAAJHDGPQ73Q?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqQW&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Equities Chart 26th August 2024.&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCJYYFK7KYRNATHMRAAJHDGPQ73Q&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Equities 26th Aug.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Unio Bonds Chart&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCFGPPZ5O7GVDI3D72SXHAOGGMDY?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqQY&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Fixed Income Chart 26th August, 2024&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCFGPPZ5O7GVDI3D72SXHAOGGMDY&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Fixed Income Chart 26th Aug.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View 26th August, 2024

&lt;p&gt;Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning at Unio Wealth Management, explains how funding for your pension via a PRSA could transform your retirement planning.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When Personal Retirement Savings Accounts (PRSAs) first arrived on the scene in 2002, they were intended to encourage pension savings and ensure adequate pension provision – mainly targeting the self-employed and those not covered by an occupational pension scheme.&amp;nbsp;They were designed to be cheap, portable pension products.&amp;nbsp;Over time, they have become the ‘go-to’ solution for individuals looking for creative ways to fund their pension and structure and create a retirement income that matches their lifestyle.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Over the last couple of years, PRSAs have seen several changes, most crucially, the removal of Benefit in Kind (BIK) on employer contributions, making them a great option for anyone targeting the most tax efficient retirement pot.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The PRSA has suddenly become the devilishly handsome yet intriguing relative at that family reunion!&amp;nbsp;PRSAs have been simplified, made more accessible and are fast becoming an indispensable component of a well-rounded retirement strategy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What is a PRSA?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A PRSA is a type of long-term personal pension plan. It is like an investment account that is designed to let you save for retirement in a flexible, tax efficient way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A PRSA is nice and simple with no onerous training or reporting requirements.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is an individual pension arrangement, not an occupational pension, though an employer can contribute to it.&amp;nbsp;There are no requirements under the IORPS II directive which, introduced common standards and enhanced governance for all company pension schemes.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;And a PRSA is not subject to the same funding rules as a traditional occupational pension scheme which limits the contributions to those which are calculated to provide a maximum retirement benefit of 2/3rds of final salary.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Put simply, those who may have been constrained by outdated pension rules, are now able to save more extensively for their retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What are the benefits?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Business owners and directors can now use PRSAs for significantly enhanced employer contributions into their pension funds.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Additionally, businesses that were slow to put pension arrangements in place for their key employees - due to complex trustee issues - can now do so without having a trust in place and without the additional reporting requirements that go with it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Where once a PRSA was only attractive to those with modest earnings, the removal of BIK on employer contributions has led to funding possibilities far exceeding those achievable via other pension types.&amp;nbsp;This presents the opportunity to get more money into your pension faster.&amp;nbsp;For cash rich businesses, this is just too good an opportunity to miss!&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Is the PRSA becoming the pension product of choice?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;‘The National Pensions Framework’ published in March 2010 set out the Governments plans for reform of the Irish pension system.&amp;nbsp;This included further initiatives aimed at increasing pension coverage – the introduction of an Auto-Enrolment system - a workplace pension savings scheme which is co-funded by employers and the State.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While all the changes around simplification, inclusion, and tighter standards and governance are welcomed, navigating the pension landscape continues to be challenging.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;The PRSA however is the exception, remaining a flexible, easy to understand, easy to access pension product.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Who can benefit?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Family business owners,&lt;/strong&gt; who might take lower salaries.&amp;nbsp;Traditionally, having a low salary meant having lower possible pension contributions.&amp;nbsp;Now, a business can contribute significantly to the individual’s pension fund without the need for the individual to draw a higher taxable salary.&amp;nbsp;This also opens significant estate planning opportunities in assisting the passing of a business and its assets to the next generation.&amp;nbsp;PRSAs are a very beneficial tool as people plan for transition to retirement and exit from their business.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Directors and other key employees in businesses. &lt;/strong&gt;The complexity of occupational pensions has been off-putting to small business owners when considering funding a pension as part of their employee’s remuneration package.&amp;nbsp;PRSAs can be put in place for these key employees, and the business can contribute to their pensions with no BIK implications or trustee issues.&amp;nbsp;There are of course alternative options, such as the recently developed Master Trust - a separate but equally interesting topic. The ability to put attractive pension benefits in place for key staff will always play an integral part of ensuring staff loyalty and coverage at the same time.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Those looking for a phased retirement.&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;We didn’t yet mention the complexities around how to access your retirement benefits.&amp;nbsp;People are living longer, more active lives with many looking to a phased entry to retirement, moving to part-time or consultancy work right into their 70s.&amp;nbsp;PRSAs can be your flexible friend and allow you to stagger accessing your retirement benefits over time, in conjunction with any continuing earned income, maximising your tax efficiency. This differs from other pension arrangements, which are restrictive and will insist that you access all your funds in one go, giving rise to additional earned income and an unwanted increase in Income Tax.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we want you to plan for the retirement you deserve.  Pensions and their rules and regulation is an ever-changing world.&amp;nbsp;To ensure that you can make the most of your wealth, and to explore the best solutions for your circumstances, talk to your Unio adviser who can help you navigate pension changes and so much more, or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch with us here.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Powering Up Your Retirement Planning with a PRSA

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The really important event of the last week was not the Democratic Party convention in Chicago that crowned Kamala Harris as the party’s candidate for president, but rather a dull offsite gathering for professional economists in remotest America.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The event, known as the Kansas Federal Reserve Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, or colloquially as ‘Jackson Hole’ is where leading central bankers and academic economists go to take the temperature of the macro world, and offer guidance as to what their next move might be.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;‘Jackson Hole’&amp;nbsp;has become one of the more important platforms for central bankers, due in little part to its proximity to decent fishing. Legend has it that up to the early 1980’s the Kansas Fed struggled to attract participants to its annual conference but came up with the idea of hosting it in Jackson Hole, because the prospect of excellent trout fishing might lure then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker (a keen fisherman) to the conference.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The strategy worked and Jackson Hole gathering is now internationally famous and attracts many professional central bankers, whose pronouncements are closely followed by markets. Never before has trout played such an important role in central banking.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The title of this year’s symposium is &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!ie0EiAQXRAGLImn33b9_j5sKnAt1dAUIrTUBcnmwpYJYQWD6JSi22RmbYL88G_fzBPW7Zf7Jm8EoslHQsbcRQgA3$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy&lt;/a&gt;, where the debate will, in its own very arcane way, focus on the plumbing of the financial system, and particularly on how ‘liquidity’ directed by central banks flows through the economy and impacts factors like industrial output, inflation and consumer behaviour. I will spare readers the detail on some of the research papers but wanted to make a few of my own observations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first relates to market expectations of monetary policy (interest rates). Two recent, related observations are worth mentioning. As a result of the August equity market sell-off, there were prominent calls for an emergency interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, and relatedly that the Fed should make a 50 basis point cut in rates at its forthcoming September meeting (from prominent commentators such as Prof Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton Business School).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The Fed has only ever taken such dramatic action in the thick of deep crises (LTCM/Russian economic collapse, the &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/dot.com__;!!O22_8FOSssc!ie0EiAQXRAGLImn33b9_j5sKnAt1dAUIrTUBcnmwpYJYQWD6JSi22RmbYL88G_fzBPW7Zf7Jm8EoslHQsdToUiuP$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;dot.com&lt;/a&gt; collapse, 9/11, the global financial crisis and the COVID crisis). There is no financial crisis today (though plenty of mounting financial risks such as very high debt levels), but a crisis of expectations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That is, the Fed and other large Western central banks have permitted investors to believe in the notion of a ‘Fed put’, or rather that central banks will rescue them if asset prices take a turn for the worst, and the calls for an emergency rate cut betray this. The existence of the notion of a ‘Fed put’ makes life a lot more difficult for central bankers – it encourages excess risk taking and leverage, unproductive investment and arguably entrenches the already sizeable wealth effect in the US economy. From the point of view of monetary purists, it distorts the options open to central bankers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second factor that I feel is relevant is the fiscal state of much of the Western economic world. Large deficits and near record high levels of debt make the transmission of monetary policy more difficult. High deficits – driven by spending – often go against the direction of monetary policy (there should really be better coordination between them), whilst high debt levels mean that pockets of credit risk and groups of zombie companies (their interest payments swamp profits).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that context, central banks have a difficult task. The gyrations in the yen are a sign of the complexity of the Japanese financial system (the central bank owns nearly two thirds of the bond market and a chunk of the stock market).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ahead of the formal Federal Reserve meeting in mid September, Fed Chair Powell has signalled the beginning of a series of rate cuts – we are not sure that this will be a ‘rate cutting cycle per se’, but a recalibration of rates to weaker growth and a riskier world. The bond market and the dollar have already reacted, and for our team at Unio, the real question is whether other economies can tolerate stronger domestic currencies – notably the euro-zone, and the yen in Japan.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Further reading: At May&#39;s meeting of the Unio Global Macro Council, we examined the case for dollar weakness, or correspondingly a pickup in the currency that one contributor, Harvinder Kalirai of Alpine Marco, referred to as the ‘anti-dollar’ i.e., the euro. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/time-for-the-anti-dollars&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read more &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Jackson Hole

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 19th August, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week&#39;s investment brief in full:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/K1K03hRA79Y?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- After a positive inflation print in the US last week, attention will now turn to the release of the Federal open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for July, on the 21st and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, starting on the 22nd.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Commentary coming from both will likely impact the market’s views on where US interest rates will go in the short term. With inflation now below 3.0% in the US, confidence is growing that a rate cut will come in September.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- EU core inflation data for July will be published on the 20th. As the ECB is now in its rate cutting cycle, policy officials will be keen to see growth in the economy but not at the expense of higher inflation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-On the earnings side, most of the recognisable names have posted their quarterly results. It’s worth keeping an eye out for Intuit’s earnings on the 22nd. The American software company announced last month that it would be cutting up to 10% of its global workforce due to the company’s recent investment in AI.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39;&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View  19th August, 2024

&lt;p&gt;Tax relief is available on personal contributions made to pension plans, making them an incredibly efficient way of reducing your taxable income. The amount of net relevant earnings/remuneration on which tax relief can be claimed is €115,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The maximum contribution rate (including both AVCs (Additional Voluntary Contributions) and ordinary personal contributions) on which you can receive income tax relief is determined by your age as follows:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCW67OBFM2QVBKRI34QDL2BFGE5Y?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Are you maximising your  pension contributions?&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqNj&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCW67OBFM2QVBKRI34QDL2BFGE5Y&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Are you maximising your  pension contributions table _web image.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These limits apply only to personal pension contributions. Employer pension contributions can be paid in addition to further enhance your overall retirement funding.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have you taken advantage of full tax relief for 2023?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you have not yet used the full income tax relief available for the 2023 tax year, you can do so by making an Additional Voluntary Contribution by 31st October 2024 (or 14th November 2024 if you make an online tax return) and claiming income tax relief directly from the Revenue Commissioners.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Please note that this year Revenue have updated their requirements for making your tax submissions online and members are required to upload a copy of their pension certificate to move through the online application process. Please take this into account when sending AVCs near the online assessment deadline date (14th November 2024) and allow time for the pension certificate to be issued by your pension provider.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we want you to plan for the retirement you deserve. Pensions, along with their rules and regulations are ever-changing. To ensure that you can make the most of your wealth, and to explore the best solutions for your circumstances, talk to your Unio adviser or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch&lt;/a&gt;.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Are you maximising your pension contributions?

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;An early morning run through Berlin last week (down Unter den Linden and through the Tiergarten) underlined to me its role as one of the few cities to have been at the centre of several, major shifts in political power – from the dominance of Bismark and the Prussian Empire, to Berlin’s role as a scientific and intellectual hub at the start of the 20th century, the two world wars, effective Russian occupation, and then the path from unification to its role as Europe’s economic powerhouse. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That the consensus view of Germany today is of ‘the sick man of Europe’ is also emblematic of a regime shift in globalization – Germany has neither the leadership, diplomacy, economic policy nor energy policy to succeed in a multipolar world. It is also an interesting vantage point to consider how some of the tectonic geopolitical shifts will evolve through the rest of 2024. Here are a few that preoccupy me. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;We have written a number of times in recent years on the way in which the breakdown of the unipolar globalized world order is forcing countries and companies to ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2022/02/26/taking-sides/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!mPmFbKscehV8qPDihB9tUHc40MvuLeCCOg0t6r2MwlH6igWmWAPHUyzJykJqyZd2_wqksY41nDlgVigmdWtizCWx$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;take sides’&lt;/a&gt;. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have made this trend more acute, as have growing supply chain centric protectionism. The messy evolution of the world order around three economic poles and value systems (China, EU, USA) adds complexity. Two recent events illustrate how different actors are becoming embroiled with each other.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;First, Elon Musk’s interview with Donald Trump, combined with his castigation of Keir Starmer polarise the international consequences of the US presidential election. For instance, the EU Commissioner with responsibility for the Digital Services Act (Thierry Breton) hastily took sides and leapt to caution Musk. If Trump wins, there is a convincing argument that ‘global oligarchy’ will align with him, to the great inconvenience of Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Second, the deepening of China’s support for both Russia (Chinese troops have recently been on exercise in Belarus) and Iran is puzzling and may increasingly put Xi Jinping at odds with colleagues. While this collaboration (of which North Korea is an important component part) is turning the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) into a coherent strategic grouping, it is taking China down a narrow path diplomatically, and one that will sap its credibility on the international stage.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The admirers of Xi may argue that China is creating not just a new world order, but a new model of government (autocratic state development). But, from a Western point of view, and I hope a neutral stance, China has fallen in with a ‘bad crowd’ whose foreign policy modus operandi seems to be to ‘make things worse’ (especially for democracies). In that regard, Xi may come under greater pressure from within his party – some of whom think he has taken a ‘wrong turn’, and many of whom are concerned with the performance of the economy. &amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If China is in danger of taking the ‘wrong side’, Germany is at risk because it is not taking sides.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Returning to Berlin and looking ahead to September, Olaf Scholz may also come under great pressure from colleagues. The ‘back to school’ season brings state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenberg. In these ‘eastern’ states, the ruling coalition has feeble support (mid-teens for the three coalition parties together), the conservative CDU does much better (close to 30%) with the now notorious AfD enjoying close to 30% in the three above states.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Whilst these are regional elections, the prospect of a strong showing for the AfD (granted the highly controversial nature of its ‘eastern’ leaders) will embarrass Scholz. It might also further undermine the government’s energy policy (voters in these regions want the return of Russian gas and coal). It also brings into question the need for the government to spend more on structural social infrastructure.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Scholz coined the term ‘Zeitenwende’ (or turning point) to coin Germany’s strategic dilemma, but he has done little to steer it towards a better path. The consternation in Berlin over Ukraine’s use of German armour in Russia and the stasis in the government on producing a budget&amp;nbsp;in the context of fiscal constraints suggest policy paralysis.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The new development for the second half of 2024 through 2025 may well be that both Germany and China, two of the important engines of the world economy, become embroiled in economic and political crises of their own making.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Wrong Turns

&lt;p&gt;As they near retirement, many women in Ireland face a harsh reality that their pensions are significantly lower than those of men. Our colleague Miriam Burke, Head of Member Engagement at Unio Employee Benefits explores the gender pension gap, looking at causes and some practical approaches to addressing the shortfall.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 2024 Gender Pension parity Gap Report from Irish Life clearly highlights the pension inequality faced by working women, finding a worrying 36% gender pension gap(1). This gender pension gap, driven by factors such as parental leave, career breaks for caregiving, part-time work and lower lifetime earnings, highlights ongoing inequalities that jeopardise the financial security of Irish women.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In my job, I meet and advise hundreds of men and women every year at different stages in their retirement cycle and get to see this ‘gap’ at first hand. It’s a fact that women’s pension pots are lower than their male counterparts and while thankfully over the last few years the gender pay gap is getting less, and women are more aware, and paying into their pensions earlier, their ‘pension pots’ continue to be lower.&amp;nbsp;The report finds that women in this country would need to work a staggering eight years longer to retire with the same pension pot as men (1). I think we could do better.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Why the gap?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Anyone can end up having a gap in their pension, due to parental leave, maternity or paternity leave, or caring for a family member, however, the implication of taking time out from paying pension contributions needs to be considered carefully, as these breaks can severely impact pension income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Though both women and men take time out from the workforce, on average European women spend 4.3 years less in paid employment than men, though in Ireland, that gap is wider at six years(2).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another driver of the pension gap is the perennial issue of the pay gap. The overall EU gender earnings gap is 36.2 %(2). The Irish Life report found that women’s salaries are, on average, 22% less than their male colleagues.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The ‘glass ceiling’ too remains a factor. The position in the hierarchy influences the level of pay and less than one in ten of top companies’ CEOs are women (3).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On a positive note, I believe that the new generation of women coming into the workplace are generally more confident, finance-savvy and very focused on their pensions however, the pressure seems to be on women to educate themselves, and demand pay transparency and equal rewards.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Bridging the gap&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The gender pension gap issue is complex, and a multi-faceted approach is needed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Solutions such as pension contributions for caregivers and promoting equal pay are obvious and important steps forward. Visibility of women in senior roles will help as will reporting salary ranges to understand gender representation in the workforce.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is a mechanism that allows employers to increase contributions for individuals on their return from unpaid leave, but it is not widely availed off. Similarly, employees could increase their AVCs at any time on their return to make up for lost contributions however this may not be affordable. An approach where employers pay pension contributions when employees are on maternity or paternity leave is what is needed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pensions are complex and information is power. Engage frequently with your pension adviser to make sure you understand your options when it comes to your pension arrangements and the implications of any leave entitlements.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;References:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gender Pension Parity Report, Irish Life, 2024&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Duration of Working Life, Eurostat, 2023&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Gender Pay Gap Situation in the EU, Eurostat 2022&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Mind the Gap – The Gender Pension Gap in Ireland

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 12th August, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch this week&#39;s investment brief in full:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/5RVXVjMPdaQ?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;In summary: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Despite a&amp;nbsp;volatile start in equity markets last week, by the close of business on Friday, the MSCI World had made back all its losses from Monday’s sell off, breaking even for the week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- On a regional basis, European stocks traded highest, closing out the week up 0.4% leaving YTD gains of 7.0% compared to 13.8% in the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Fixed income yields also ticked higher, in particular in the US where the 10 year yield jumped 0.14% to 3.94% over further recession fears. It also didn’t help that oil prices ticked up 4.4%, adding further pressure to the future inflation outlook.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Looking ahead to this week, US and UK inflation data will be released on the 14th and will no doubt be watched closely, due to the impact it could have on rate cutting cycles in September. From an earnings perspective some big US retailers such as Walmart and Home Depot will post their earnings on the 13th whilst Tencent and Cisco will post theirs on the 14th.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Chart of the Week&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite the strong sell off in equity markets over the last week the ‘bull-bear’ sentiment index, which is still above zero represents an overall positive outlook on US equity markets. However it has pulled back considerably in recent days.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCN6VMGQ6V5NCMPBS6Q6AULXFW6A?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uqNA&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCN6VMGQ6V5NCMPBS6Q6AULXFW6A&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;chart of week12082024.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;We are here to help&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice.&amp;nbsp;If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/sodvwdkei0/lbhlyi9c77v151dy77l1u4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=5&amp;amp;p=64443015&amp;amp;t=31915503__;!!GIL_j7ndwvA!Dl6WHPkYbVBPT1bFb5mk2sFM9ynJvDqyozyeviD7FZN7KxOG_FKcjhs01l9R1A-lGRHtDeWA-BUdAb9WW3hmEY5G$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt; or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;let&#39;s talk.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View 12th August 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;On Saturday morning I got up early to run the first and last ten kilometres of the Olympic marathon course, a few hours before the actual race. The course joins the most memorable parts of Paris with Versailles and is consistent with the spirit of the two-week Games in showing the accessibility of the city and its magnificence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I have spent much of the past two weeks at the Games, mostly at the rowing, athletics and other endurance events like triathlon and bike (my favourite performances were Cork’s Paul O’Donovan and Fintan McCarthy –in the men’s lightweight sculls, Cassandre Beaugrand in the women’s triathlon, and the USA’s Grant Fisher in the 10,000m).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Once the security-driven tension of the opening passed, Paris relaxed and blossomed, and I think it is fair to say that the Games have been a huge success for Paris, France and the morale of the French people (their morale always needs boosting, their self-regard not so).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The success of the Games is a sharp contrast to the mood one month ago, when the country was confronted with the possibility that Jordan Bardella might be prime minister during the Games. Yet, Bardella has now effectively disappeared from public view. The question now is whether the success of the Games will colour the process of the formation of a new government?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My hunch is that it makes a government led by either the far left and far right less likely, and points to a preference for a centrist government – which I think is predicated on a split in the NFP left coalition (coming once they all return from holidays). I do not think that Emmanuel Macron’s reputation will be vastly enhanced by the Games, but they could be decisive in the race for mayor of Paris (Anne Hildago might opt to stand again, against the likes of Rachida Dati and Clement Beaune).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One reason that the atmosphere in Paris seemed so relaxed is that most of the Parisians left the city.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In my experience one motivation for this is that, unlike say England, there is no ‘sports culture’ in France (at least in the realms of the upper and middle classes). Achievement in sports is something for people in the regions, or the suburbs. Despite&amp;nbsp;that, France does remarkably well in many sports like rugby, which is in effect played in a few regional centres (and professionally in Paris).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In this respect, the strong performance of France in the Games, allied to the even more impressive medal haul of Australia and combined with the lacklustre showing of larger countries like India, Brazil and South Africa (who have a combined three gold medals compared the six won by tiny New Zealand) begs the question as to what makes a successful Olympic nation, and whether these characteristics are correlated to economic achievement or even innovation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Here, there are maybe three different models.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first, which encompasses the English speaking nations (GB -5th place in the medals table, USA – currently 2nd, Australia – 3rd, New Zealand – 11th and&amp;nbsp;Ireland – 14th) and some of the Nordics is based on what I call the ‘schools’ model, where sport is taught and practised competitively in the school system, and where this is valued culturally. In many cases, successful school athletes (especially so in Olympic sports) can continue sports at a very high level at university or clubs. Here the US university system stands out for the support it gives to athletes (from many countries, note that France’s hero Leon Marchand is a student at Arizona State University) and the vast resources that individual universities possess.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What is interesting from the point of view of the Olympics is that the national sports of the English-speaking countries – American football and baseball, hurling and Gaelic football, cricket, Australian rules – are not Olympic sports, and if anything draw talented athletes away from Games sports (and the Nordics have winter sports). It is still however an argument that a ‘sporting culture’ pays off.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second approach is what I call ‘institutional excellence’, as exemplified by France (and it must also be said Australia with its world leading Institute for Sport), where promising athletes are funnelled through high level performance institutes and top flight clubs, and given support in terms of conditioning, psychology and diet. In the case of France, other institutions like the army also play a supporting role (19 of 52 French medal winners are soldiers). Japan and South Korea might also fall into this category, though it is worth noting the role that Japanese corporates play in supporting sports like running.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The third model is the ‘communist’ one, which whilst communism has gone out of fashion, the communist system’s approach to manufacturing athletes has not, and is manifest in China, Romania and of course Russia. In these countries, within certain sports (rowing is one), promising physiological ‘specimens’ are channelled into specific sports and driven to compete. Whilst athletes from many countries have engaged in drug-fuelled enhancement, the ‘communist’ model countries have recently been the greatest offenders (Russia’s efforts here has been described as ‘state-sponsored and systematic’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;These are very broad sketches and will miss many elements such as the quality of individual coaching. One element they have in common is ‘age’ in the sense that most of the successful Olympic countries have been competing for a long time (the 1924 medal table was dominated by the USA, France, Finland, GB and Sweden) and I suspect that institutionalised expertise in many sports as well as a sense of ‘how to win’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;While my fellow Parisian Simon Kuper of the FT writes that there is a correlation between the level of economic development and Olympic achievement, I think it is more complicated. There does seem to be a correlation between sporting success and country pedigree (system longevity) and gender equality, and there does not appear to be a relationship between rate of development and Olympic achievement (China is the exception).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What is more interesting is the notion that the three above ‘Olympic’ models are related to different approaches to innovation. As we noted in last week’s note, China has a state driven, ‘all-costs’, competitive approach to innovation, Europe’s is also state driven and resource-short, while the resource rich US university model (I would include Imperial and Oxbridge in the UK here too) tallies well with the centres of innovative excellence in the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If there is a lesson to countries like India, who perhaps want to be more successful (India sent a large business/socialite/media delegation to the Games) it is to focus on schools and colleges, develop a competitive sports program within its huge army, and copy Australia’s Institute for Sport.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Let’s see who does well in LA.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Olympic Economies

&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Irish investors can learn a lot from John Maynard Keynes, renowned for his economic theories but less celebrated for his investment acumen. In the 1920s and 1930s, Keynes managed portfolios for insurance companies and King’s College, Cambridge, and consistently beat the market by over 5% a year. His bold strategies, like early investments in stocks and focused positions, influenced modern investment managers, notably Yale’s David Swensen. Keynes’ work provides a blueprint for effective investment strategies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;John Maynard Keynes is very well known for his contributions to economics and policy making, but less so for his investing prowess. In the 1920’s Keynes worked as a portfolio manager for two insurance companies and from 1921 to 1946 ran the endowment (the ‘Chest’) for King’s College, Cambridge. Keynes’ investing performance is the subject of some fascinating research by David Chambers and Elroy Dimson.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Early in his career Keynes was what we might call a macro investor, focusing on commodities and foreign exchange. Later, he became more focused on stocks, and from the 1930’s Keynes beat the (stock) market by over 5% per year despite several close shaves with personal bankruptcy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Viewed from the point of view of today’s stock market, what was unusual about Keynes’ style was that in the 1920’s and 1930’s equities were very much the preserve of retail investors, and not so much institutional managers.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, Chambers and Dimson remark that Keynes’ early allocation to equities was ‘as radical as the much later move to illiquid assets in the late 20th century by Yale’. Unsurprisingly, Keynes’ investing style, which was driven by strong macro-economic views and focused on a few, large and often concentrated positions (if he was investing today he would likely be heavily invested in mega-cap technology stocks) has influenced modern endowment managers, most notably David Swensen of Yale.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Swensen pioneered the move by large US university endowments towards private assets (notably private equity, but also infrastructure and venture), a strategy that has proven remarkably profitable. The top endowments, generally Ivy League schools and other top ranking universities like MIT, have consistently made double digit returns, spurred by annual §private equity returns in the very high teens.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, the endowment model is coming under scrutiny, partly because some universities have overinvested in private assets at a time when capital distributions have slowed (my former employer Princeton University has effectively invested up to 40% of its portfolio in private equity and venture), and partly because universities themselves have adjusted their expenditure upwards whilst they have enjoyed generous disbursements from performing endowments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Endowments in the US originally paid 4% of their value to universities annually but in some cases this has risen to 12% (in turn pressuring endowment managers to produce returns). Broadly, disbursements from endowments amount to close to 30% of university budgets with much of it spent on student financial aid. Given that cash distributions from private equity funds have slowed, the knock on to university spending is being felt.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Anyone who has visited a top-flight US university and witnessed the extent to which laboratories, sports facilities and student bursaries are well funded will appreciate the size of university budgets and the role that endowments play. In Europe, only ETH Zurich can match this level of financial backing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The debate on endowment investing has been enlivened by the publication in February of the 50th NACUBO Endowment Study. In general, the nearly 700 endowments surveyed in the report hold less fixed income than I would imagine for a typical ‘balanced’ investor, more ‘foreign’ equities than US (this might explain some underperformance), and nearly 50% alternative assets (including a large slug of hedge funds).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Interestingly from the point of Keynes’ active management stance, nearly 50% of US endowments ‘outsourced’ their investment office function. Reflecting this, allocations to private equity, returns and return distribution tend to be better in the larger endowments that have well-equipped investment teams.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In turn this reflects the reality that private equity and venture are two of the asset classes (unlike equity and bond funds) where returns are highly dispersed (i.e. there is a large difference between the best and worst performing funds). As such, finding the best performing funds and gaining access to them has a cost in terms of investment research resources. To this end, I wonder if many universities have really been following the ‘endowment’ model as pioneered by Keynes and Swensen.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, one of the secrets of the performance of the Yale and Harvard models is that they have very good networks of alumni in the private investment industry, who willingly proffered the best advice and access to their alma mater.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Supporting this theory, Keynes had a similar network of former students around the world (notably in Africa – think mining stocks and commodities) who offered him advice, information and investment opportunities and he also had access to relatively sophisticated telegram technology, so that in some cases he had access to market moving information before others. Further, Keynes was unlike many investors today in that his colleagues at King’s had great faith in him and gave him enormous freedom to pursue his own investment style.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This ‘freedom’ has been all but quashed by benchmarking and technology in public markets (i.e. equity and bond funds) but still exits in private markets – the trick is to find the Keynes like managers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit&amp;nbsp;Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/sodvwdkei0/lbhlyi9c77v151dy77l1u4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=5&amp;amp;p=64443015&amp;amp;t=31915503__;!!GIL_j7ndwvA!Dl6WHPkYbVBPT1bFb5mk2sFM9ynJvDqyozyeviD7FZN7KxOG_FKcjhs01l9R1A-lGRHtDeWA-BUdAb9WW3hmEY5G$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Treasure Chest

&lt;p&gt;Stock markets in Europe remained unsettled today after a couple of days of volatile trading in the US. This was in reaction to fears of a US economic slowdown. A rare interest rate rise in Japan is also believed to have played a part.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Global Macro Council has issued a note following recent activity in global equity markets&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/What-does-market-stress-mean-for-the-economy-August-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read the report in full. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Listen to Mike O’Sullivan, Strategic Adviser and Director at Unio, and Alex Kinsella our Head of Investment Solutions, discuss recent market and macro events and what they mean for the economy and our client portfolios.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Unio-Client-Call-_What-does-market-stress-mean-for-the-economy_August-2024.mp3&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Listen here&lt;/a&gt; ( 10 minutes duration)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;talk to us. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

What does market stress mean for the economy?

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If I uttered the word plenum, you might think I was a surgeon or arcane barrister, and not a casual observer of Chinese politics. The ‘Plenum’ is held seven times during the five yearly policy making cycle that aims to set the long-term direction of the development of China by the Communist Party.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Amidst the generalised chaos of Western politics in recent weeks, China held its most recent plenum (July 15-19), and this was the third plenum of this policy cycle, which typically focuses on economic policy. Though the outcome appeared to have been something of a damp squib, it is worth reflecting on .&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;To many international observers (note that China is becoming much less transparent in its policy process and in the availability of detailed macro data), there are three re-occurring threads.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is to ‘make China more like Denmark’(my words not the CCP’s), in other words to deepen its social welfare net and to limit inequalities. This has long been a goal of the CCP. In 2018, in the last chapter of the Levelling we wrote that ‘&lt;em&gt;Another approach is to develop social infrastructure that encompasses many of the elements of intangible infrastructure, such as health-care spending, education, pension plans, and broader financial services. ……Motivation for building social infrastructure in China may come from stress points uncovered during China’s next recession. As such, it would be a logical chapter in China’s path to development, and not at all unlike Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal. The New Deal was a watershed in the United States in many respects, one of which was that it marked the full evolution of the United States from an emerging to a developed nation.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The building out of a social infrastructure in China remains a significant project, as does the flattening out of Chinese society – effectively the elimination of poverty and the reduction of inequalities. Granted that I wrote the above paragraph in 2017/18, it is striking that a number of basic reforms are still missing – there is very little reform of the hukou system (household registration system that allows internal migrants to work in cities) and children of migrant workers to cities do not receive the same social benefits and education as children of city parents do. In addition, little accommodation has been made for the fact that the ageing of the population will strain the social safety network. In that regard China looks a little like France!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;So, like the US under Roosevelt, the creation of a formal ‘new deal’ type social infrastructure, if it happens, could be a (positive) turning point for China.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second challenge is to make China more like Silicon Valley. The plenum underlined the importance of maintaining a laser like focus on ‘high quality development’, which translates as the need to make China the leader in new, strategic technologies. In this respect it is conceptually like the EU’s idea of strategic autonomy, but far far more serious in implementation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In addition, the wording of the plenum drafts references ‘fierce international competition’, which ultimately points to intense competition with European car manufacturers, and in the telecoms and AI sectors. In recent years the number of directives from the CCP on topics that fall under the ‘Strategic Innovation’ umbrella, has multiplied and state aid for sectors like AI and semiconductors is now burgeoning into the trillions of dollars.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The third element that bears flagging is the ongoing focus on ‘reform’, and to my limited experience there is a ‘lost in translation’ element where quite harsh Chinese policies end up being translated as positive, innocuous Western ones. As an example, I recall in the 2010’s a very senior Chinese trade diplomat explaining that ‘rule of law’ did not equate to a Western sense of adherence to established laws, but rather the imposition of the rule of the CCP on business, politics and society. In that context, the idea of ‘reform’ means the fitting of Chinese society to the will of CCP, and specifically Xi Jinping ‘thought’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My interpretation of all of this is that Xi is shaping China in the form of a more closed state (which again to the tone of my recent note on globalization, makes for a less open world), that curbs the will of those inside, adopts a singularly selfish approach to those outside, and relies on several great strides in technological industrialisation for the prolongation of the ‘China Dream’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The contradiction here, and specifically between the three strands to emerge from the plenum, is that in its policy making (social infrastructure) and economy (high quality development) China needs innovation but is creating a socio-political system that smothers it. This is the fallacy of authoritarian systems.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In this respect, the third plenum missed a trick in not outlining a Keynesian style stimulus for the economy (or even longer-run structural one). The property market is slowing, entrepreneurs are very cautious and the risks associated with local government debt are rising.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Plenum

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Major changes to Ireland’s pension system are only months away. But the reforms could have negative consequences for those who have already amassed significant retirement savings, writes Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning at Unio.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A new pension auto-enrolment system is due to come into effect in Ireland at the start of 2025. The system is designed to address the problem of declining and inadequate long-term retirement savings by ensuring employees automatically join the scheme.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the government has provided a good deal of information on how auto-enrolment will work, several details still need to be confirmed – and there is also some uncertainty around whether the systems needed to implement the scheme will be in place in time for the January 2025 deadline.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Amid this uncertainty, early analysis carried out by Unio indicates that a number of high net worth (HNW) individuals may be at risk of falling victim to some unintended and potentially negative consequences of the new regime. At the moment, we are talking to our clients to explain what these issues could be and to discuss a variety of strategies that might need to be employed to avoid problems such as higher tax bills.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How the auto-enrolment regime will operate&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;According to legislation, that passed both Houses of the Oireachtas before the Dáil summer recess, around 800,000 employees, between the ages of 23 and 60, who earn at least €20,000 a year and who are not already members of a workplace pension, will be automatically enrolled in a new scheme from January 1, 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Both employees and employers will contribute a certain percentage of the employee’s gross income to the scheme. This percentage will gradually rise over the first 10 years of membership, from 1.5% each in years one to three to 6% each in year 10. Additional top-ups will be made by the state.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Eligible employees will, at first, be opted into an auto-enrolment pension scheme for six months, after which they can choose to opt out if they wish. Anyone who does decide to opt out after the initial six-month period will be automatically re-enrolled two years later.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Potential impact on HNW individuals&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Auto-enrolment is being introduced to address the fact that aside from a potential State Pension entitlement, a large percentage of private-sector workers in Ireland currently have no other form of retirement savings. However, there appears to be a danger that a significant number of higher earners – specifically, those who have built up substantial pension pots already – could find themselves inadvertently included in the auto-enrolment system, which could have damaging implications for their finances.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is currently a €2 million limit on the total value of pension savings that can be accrued over a lifetime. Known as the Standard Fund Threshold (SFT), it was originally introduced in 2005, at a level of €5 million, but was reduced in 2010 in the wake of the financial crisis and again in 2014. Many people who have found themselves close to, or above, the SFT in recent years have decided to stop saving into a pension to avoid the punitive tax charge of an additional 40% that can be imposed as a result of exceeding the limit.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, if Revenue records indicate that someone is not currently part of a pension scheme, they are likely to be automatically enrolled at the start of 2025, and subsequently unable to leave the scheme for six months. During this period, and additional potential ‘opted in’ periods, the size of their lifetime pension savings may increase, potentially taking them past the €2 million SFT.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Avoiding tax charges and possible next steps&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The imminent introduction of auto-enrolment should prompt HNW individuals to examine their current pension status – whether they are still paying into a scheme or not – and check they are not at risk of being caught in a situation as described above. By working with a trusted adviser, you can assess if your current level of savings means you need to take the SFT into account. Equally, if you have stopped paying into a pension due to concerns around the SFT it could, in some circumstances, be worth restarting contributions at a very low level before the January 1, 2025, deadline to avoid being automatically enrolled against your wishes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is possible that the rules around auto-enrolment could be amended in the months ahead, and even that the scheme – which was originally due to start in early 2025 – may face further delays. Similarly, there have been calls recently for the government to lift the €2 million SFT, which has been in place since 2014, to reflect rising living costs and life expectancy. This uncertainty means it is even more important to stay in contact with finance experts over the coming months.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read more:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/ab617-historic-automatic-enrolment-legislation-passed-by-dail/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Historic Automatic Enrolment Legislation passed by Dáil, Department of Social Protection, 4 July 2024&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Auto-enrolment Pensions: How high earners could be caught in a tax trap.

&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCCPLLDNVA2REYVI4MH5IDEBELRE?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000uptA&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCCPLLDNVA2REYVI4MH5IDEBELRE&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;All smiles Unio Harvest shot edit.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pictured above L-R: Garry Cullen, Head of Private Clients at Harvest Financial Services; Kate Candon, Chief Marketing Officer at Unio: Terry Devitt, Chief Investment Officer at Harvest Financial Services; Gerry Devitt, Managing Director at Harvest Financial Services; Ian Brady, CEO, at Unio; Linda Harmon, Chief Operating Officer at Unio; Michael O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio; and, Áine McGroarty, Chief Commercial Officer at Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Warm welcome to the team at Harvest who join Unio Wealth Management today 1st July.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Today, we are thrilled to share that Harvest Financial Services has joined forces with Unio Wealth Management to create a powerhouse in wealth management. We welcome the brilliant team of advisers and experts from Harvest to Unio and together we are on a journey that promises to elevate the level of service and expertise we provide our valued clients.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients’ wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. And, by welcoming the team from Harvest, we are enhancing our capabilities allowing us to draw from a wealth of knowledge, experience, and innovative strategies to better serve our clients&#39; diverse needs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thank you to our clients for your continued trust and support, we are excited about the future and are committed to maintaining the highest standards of excellence in everything we do.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ian Brady, Chief Executive Officer at Unio commented: “I am delighted to welcome the Harvest team to Unio Wealth Management. With the combined knowledge of our growing firm, Harvest and Unio are well-positioned to embark on a new chapter of growth and innovation. We remain dedicated to our mission of guiding, guarding and growing our clients wealth and we are confident that the addition of Harvest will propel us towards achieving our vision.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gerry Devitt, Managing Director, Harvest Financial Services: “It is great to see the business we created over 30 years ago enter a new and exciting phase with Unio Wealth Management. I am confident that the combined resources of the two businesses will deliver even better outcomes for our clients going forward. Onwards and upwards!”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Commenting on this milestone Aine McGroarty, Chief Commercial Officer at Unio: “Integrating with Harvest brings not only growth across all our teams but also an exciting opportunity to leverage our collective expertise, driving unparalleled value for our clients. Together, we intend to make a significant and lasting impact on our clients’ lives and lead the evolution of wealth management.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pictured below: The team at Harvest Financial Services.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCJTUA27MNB5FKBILR7W3UIEBO5A?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio welcomes the team at Harvest Financial Services.&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000upte&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCJTUA27MNB5FKBILR7W3UIEBO5A&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Unio welcomes Harvest team 1 01 07 2024.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Warm welcome to the team at Harvest Financial Services

&lt;p&gt;There remain few winners in the French general election. The best that can be said is that there will not be a Rassemblement-led government during the Olympics. The risk now is of ongoing political uncertainty and friction, and in the context of a move towards the far-left (some of whose worst instincts encompass support for Hamas and 90% income tax rates), a confrontation with bond markets.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The takeaway of the election is that the Rassemblement has not triumphed. A number of factors have played a role here. In the past couple of weeks, tv and radio interviews have exposed the lack of real policy knowledge of Jordan Bardella (notably revealing his comments on the rights of bi-nationals), not to mention the incoherence of many of his RN colleagues.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, tactical voting across the country has managed to limit the advance of the RN (who are now engaging in the familiar cry that ‘the election has been stolen’). Bear in mind that the RN won 37% of the votes but will have fewer seats than the far-left NFP group who garnered 27% of the vote, which shows the power of tactical voting but also should sound a warning ahead of the French presidential elections (2027).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are several strands emerging. The first is that while Macron has avoided a RN majority, he has ushered it into the mainstream of French politics, crippled his own party and resurrected the far-left in France. He remains severely diminished in the sense that the majority of French people resent him, prior political allies from Edouard Philippe to Gabriel Attal are distancing him, and that political power will now pass to parliament.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Attention will now turns to the formation of a government. The French constitution doesn’t offer a clear guide here – it is set up to shape majority governments. There are perhaps three scenarios to bear in mind.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;A technocratic government of experts and well-regarded figures in public life. We are aware that the Elysee had been in touch with several eminent people prior to the second round. This scenario is a low probability one for the moment, at least until other possibilities are exhausted.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;An NFP centred government, with ‘silent support’ of the centre. We think this would be difficult to achieve given the policy programme of the La France Insoumise in particular, and they would have to severely moderate this and give up the chance for Jean-Luc Melanchon to serve in government (everyone is against this).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;-&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;A ‘grand coalition’ government of the centre, which is enabled by the breaking of the socialists with LFI to join Renew and possibly the Greens/Ecolos, and some of the right wing deputies. This ‘German’ style government could come close to a slim majority but would necessitate a break in the left wing coalition. The difficulty for Macron would be the role that Francois Hollande might play, the concessions he would need to give to the Greens and the choice of prime minister (maybe Raphael Glucksmann?). Glucksmann, an MEP, is one of the relative winners of the campaign, along with the soon to be former prime minister Gabriel Attal.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What’s next? Gabriel Attal is expected to submit his resignation, though it is unclear if Macron will accept it for now (he has the NATO summit this week), and we suspect that this government could be kept in place till after the Olympics, with a lot of manoeuvring going on at the same time. The leader of the Assemblée will be selected on the 18th July, and then September looms in terms of a budget.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Economically, a new government could be less coherent, less experienced (Bruno Le Maire was in place for seven years) and will want to spend more, with a possibility (esp if the NFP is involved) that it will be instinctively less friendly to investment and capital markets. As such, France is up against the limits of fiscal space, and the risk of a run in with the bond market is high.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Summary: This was a very costly move by Macron. France and its parliament is divided, the far-left is in a powerful position in parliament, the far-right has garnered 37% of the vote and there are growing financial risks to the political outlook in France. Macron as a political force is finished.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

France – Germany without the money

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;This article was written by Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and appears in &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024/07/03/the-demise-of-macron-as-a-political-force-will-be-felt-across-europe/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;The Irish Times&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt; today ahead of the second round in the French election.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Events in France point to a more chaotic future, and Ireland must build its defence and security infrastructure amid growing challenges&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Next weekend, France faces into the second round of its unexpected, dramatic general election, with a number of grave risks on the political and economic horizons. There will be implications for Europe, and Ireland.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In a ‘year of elections’ globally, France has suddenly become the source of political drama as Emmanuel Macron’s plan to throw a ‘grenade’ into the political arena has backfired badly. His hope was to recompose the centre of French politics but instead he has evacuated it. Amidst a large first round turnout, he has now re-energised the far-left, which is building a rancorous coalition with other left-wing parties, and at the same time, ushered the far-right to the antechamber of government. For the second time, Macron has remade the French political system.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This is an election that very few French people wanted, and the timing of it, with the holiday season and Olympics, could not have been more divisive. With the first round results manifestly favouring the Rassemblement National, Macron is the main loser and ‘Macronism’ (big speeches and big ideas) is very likely over.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Two broad scenarios are now forming. One is of a minority Rassemblement National (RN) led government, aided by various members of the right (mostly former Republicans). The centre and far-left parties are now engaging in&amp;nbsp;a&amp;nbsp;loose voting arrangement to try to limit the seats that the Rassemblement wins. The other, given the obvious lack of durability of a far-left anchored coalition, is some form of techno-cratic government. Both scenarios are laden with the risk of constitutional crisis and the potential for political unrest and strikes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At a time when Labour looks likely to bring a steady, boring calm to British politics, it seems that the contagion of political chaos has passed to Paris, and neither of the&amp;nbsp;above two&amp;nbsp;scenarios is likely to result in an orderly Assembly. The far left and far right are very hostile to each other, and neither would have patience for true technocrats, a feeling that is likely reciprocated. In that context, it is hard to imagine any meaningful policies being enacted in France in the next year, and to a large extent the 2027 presidential race has kicked off.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Macron has done something unusual for a French president in that he has, possibly like David Cameron and his successors in the Tory party, done harm to his country. In the eyes of many his decision to call an election has opened up a series of tail-risks for France and Europe, and this is where the implications for Ireland lie.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;France, like the UK, has a debt to GDP ratio that, apart from the period around the world wars, hasn’t been as elevated since the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars. This, and a large deficit, create the conditions for a financial accident and a more difficult relationship with Brussels. Both the RN and the Nouveau Front Populaire have deep seated antipathies to the Anglophone commercial and financial world, and neither has a good relationship with the European policy ‘centre’, that would enable them to work easily with the EU and its institutions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As such, there is a higher risk of financial stress in the euro-zone, though likely not a full-blown crisis. In this context a far-right led government may opt to put fiscal policy on ‘auto-pilot’ and focus much more intently on the issues of identity, immigration and security, which itself would be contentious.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The likely demise of Emmanuel Macron as a political force will be felt across Europe. He has been the motivating force behind the idea of ‘strategic autonomy’ and has provoked the security debate with comments like ‘NATO is brain dead’. His&amp;nbsp;diminished&amp;nbsp;standing will make the EU/NATO security outlook less coherent, especially so if he sits atop a Rassemblement government. Additionally, the centre of European political power may now move towards countries like Poland, with Italy and Greece also likely to become more influential. Of particular concern is the scope for relations with Germany to suffer if there is a Rassemblement&amp;nbsp;government.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are perhaps two more lessons for Ireland. The first is that we have one of the best democratic systems in the world, even if that is not always accurately reflected in public discourse. The lesson is that democracies need to be nurtured and protected, and the incivility that has crept into public life is a negative development.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second is that Ireland is increasingly suffering the problems that have bedeviled France for some time – an inability to absorb large numbers of immigrants, the demands of an intensely dangerous international security environment and the allure of populism, and these need to be addressed in a structured way, with clear political vision.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ireland as a state is still set up for a globalized world, but as deglobalization sets in these negative trends will intensify. In that regard it is wiser to regard events in France as a harbinger, or warning for the future, as opposed to an outlier. The aim then is to start to build infrastructure – defence and security is one example – that will mean Ireland has the resilience to meet the growing challenges that a more chaotic world throws at it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Mike O’Sullivan is the co-author of ‘L’Accord du Peuple’ (Calmann-Levy) with Pierre-Charles Pradier, and a speaker at the Rencontres Économiques in Aix-en-Provence this weekend.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The demise of Macron as a political force will be felt across Europe

&lt;p&gt;The political landscape is shifting dramatically, with the Conservatives ousted from office in the UK, potential changes looming in France and, the latest developments in the US Presidential campaign. Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio joined Newstalk&#39;s Joe Lynam to discuss events of the week in politics, business and markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://open.spotify.com/episode/2n1hOLn4Ts4ZctY0yAKusP?si=vL0DFHcASq2l92tv6X5ADg&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Listen📻 here &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

What do the latest political changes mean for global economies?

&lt;p&gt;This year has brought significant elections with unexpected impacts on international markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Eurozone bond yields, including those for Ireland, surged following President Macron’s shock dissolution of the French parliament. Shares in India fell post-election and the peso plummeted after elections in Mexico.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser,&amp;nbsp;Unio&amp;nbsp;joined Newstalk&#39;s Joe Lynam this morning to discuss how elections are shaking up global markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;📻 &lt;a href=&quot;https://open.spotify.com/episode/5wrdzr65XFhzO0HJhynkpO?si=bDZk1tBoQeq6e_6ucS8RDw&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Listen here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;5 mins 48 secs&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment. If you want to find out more, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

How Elections Are Shaking Up Global Markets

&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As I stepped out on the street in Kreuzberg (Berlin) on Monday, all was calm, with little to worry about, save the choice of the excellent local food, loud music, beer and football (the Dutch invasion was just starting ahead of Tuesday’s match against Austria). Kreuzberg, was of course, once on the frontier of West Berlin, looking across to East Berlin and will have featured in the high stakes espionage between the West and East (notably so when Markus Wolf ran the Stasi).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having once run into Mr Wolf, I was pondering what Berlin was like at the time, and we should not be surprised that it is still regarded as ‘the city of spies’, and that it continues to feature in espionage literature.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Given that context, it was no surprise to learn that Germany continues to be targeted by foreign spies. Over a week ago, German Interior minister Nancy Faeser launched the annual threat assessment of the German domestic intelligence service – which pinpoints Russia as well as China and Iran as the authors of multi-faceted attacks (disinformation, cyber attacks, manipulation of people flows and racial tensions) on Germany, not to mention a recent spate of assassination attempts in Germany by Russia.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Of great concern is the range of threats to Germany (the same is true in most other countries), from Russian operatives defenestrating enemies of Moscow, to plots to overthrow the German state by the far-right to Islamic terror (there are over 27000 known radicalised Islamists in Germany, and the threat of Islamic terror has been growing since the October 7 attack).&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The tactics that the enemies of Europe (and democracy) are deploying are likely very different to those crafted by the likes of Markus Wolf. Espionage during the Cold War was motivated by a need for information, with plenty of proxy battles for influence taking place around the rest of the world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Today, the aim seems to be outright destabilisation and provocation – from the multiple attacks on arms production facilities across Europe to an epidemic of coups d’état across Africa, to the waves of disinformation on our social media. There is also the impression that the US is being tied down in multiple conflicts around the world.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The issue then, is what the EU and its member countries need to do.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is to confront the problem and bring it into the open. Nancy Faeser’s report is just one of a growing number from security services across Europe – in May the head of Britain’s GCHQ outlined a similar, urgent threat landscape. The second will be for governments to give security services larger budgets, and potentially, to allow them a more flexible modus operandi.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The new development relates to the new EU commission. Following last week’s meeting of heads of state, it now looks likely that Ursula von der Leyen will continue as president – and with Katja Kallas as foreign representative, the tone of the next commission will tilt from ‘Green Deal’ to ‘security’ and ‘strategic autonomy’. Defence infrastructure and innovation will become a key trend in the private investment (private equity and venture). Von der Leyen has already flagged that enormous amounts of capital will be required to support this, and given the failure of the EU to build out its capital markets union (CMU) this will be an immense challenge.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One element that might help, a little, is von der Leyen’s proposal to create an EU defence commissioner. If it does happen, it will run into two of the common problems that beset bright ideas in Brussels.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First the role of defence commissioner will need to be based on the reallocation of powers from other commissioners – some defence innovation and military logistics responsibilities from Thierry Breton’s department, transport and infrastructure from the Transport commissioner (Valean) and various other responsibilities from the foreign representative.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second issue is that it might take some power from national defence ministries, but there is also a strong argument that they need to be better coordinated.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that sense the new EU defence commissioner might reflect changes that John Healey (currently the shadow defence minister in the UK) wants to usher in – an office for value for money in the Ministry of Defence and a restructured defence command. The EU defence commissioner might also start by coordinating the purchase and use of heavy duty equipment, such as large transport aircraft, and driving the integrated use of new technologies across countries. Another potential task is to find means of better coordinating European security agencies and militaries, so that their collective, offensive capability becomes stronger.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is a depressing, though necessary use of resources, and a sad sign of our times.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit&amp;nbsp;Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice.&amp;nbsp;If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/sodvwdkei0/lbhlyi9c77v151dy77l1u4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=5&amp;amp;p=64443015&amp;amp;t=31915503__;!!GIL_j7ndwvA!Dl6WHPkYbVBPT1bFb5mk2sFM9ynJvDqyozyeviD7FZN7KxOG_FKcjhs01l9R1A-lGRHtDeWA-BUdAb9WW3hmEY5G$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

From Cold War To Total War

&lt;p&gt;It is holiday season in France, and not wanting to ‘stick out’, we have headed down to Aix-en-Provence for a long weekend. But, it’s not all fun and games, as there is the excellent ‘Rencontres Économiques’ to attend. The Rencontres is where the French establishment come to discuss the state of the political economic world, in the sun (think of it as Roland Garros for economists). For their troubles, the French have to listen to me preach to them on democracy, which is timely to say the least.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The weather was too good and the company so interesting to define that the event possibly marked the ‘fin de regime’, but with the second round of the election happening on Sunday 7th, the mood is all about ‘rupture’, ‘crise’ ‘extreme’, and it is hard to believe that there can be a positive scenario for France in the next year or so.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this week’s &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024/07/03/the-demise-of-macron-as-a-political-force-will-be-felt-across-europe/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Irish Times&lt;/a&gt;, I wrote on the implications for Europe of Emmanuel Macron’s demise. I believe that he is finished as a political force, and the implications of this will ripple across Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Macron as a ‘lame duck’ will no longer carry as much sway as he did in Europe, and from the point of view of countries like the US, may no longer be regarded as the prime mover in EU politics – in that respect Tusk, von der Leyen, Kallas and Meloni are relative winners. The other risk is that Germany in particular finds it hard to cooperate with a RN led government if that transpires, and this will also change the dynamic in EU politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Domestically, Macron has twice remade the French political landscape, first creating and energising (but not rooting) a new centre, and then recently, destroying that centre. France now faces an illiberal form of democracy, perched on the very unstable pillars of the far-left and far-right.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The upshot is that the Rassemblement National will be the largest party in the Assemblée, menacingly close to a majority, and now part of the political establishment. On the other side, stepping over the bodies of the few remaining members of the parties of the centre, is an inchoate far-left grouping, with few realistic ideas as to how to improve France’s economy or mend its society.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, the likely outcome of this Sunday’s election is a technocratic government in the context of a constitutional crisis. In recent times, France has had three cohabitations (Mitterand-Chirac, Mitterand-Balladur, Chirac-Jospin) but never had to assemble a technocratic government, in the same way that Italy has managed for example. French media is now increasingly featuring constitutional experts opining on how the constitution might steer the formation of a technocratic government, and in some cases, also speaking on the future of the president in the context of this unprecedented political crisis.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The French constitution was never designed with this kind of exercise in mind, it was crafted to form majority governments. Therefore, forming a caretaker technocratic government is an experiment and I suspect that there will be a lot of behind the scenes debate as to who might be best to lead such a government – if that is to be the case.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Formally, the process is led by the president, but with Macron damaged by the detonation of his own political grenade, this now becomes more complicated. Indeed, it will be interesting to see how he can recover from this. France has a difficult year ahead, a constitutional crisis likely punctuated by unrest and the risk of an economic shock.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With a sense of calm and normalcy now finally returning to the UK on this momentous weekend, there is a sense that Macron has caught the ‘contagion of chaos’. He has made an ill-considered decision, in the manner of David Cameron or Rishi Sunak.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If France is having its ‘fin de siècle’ moment (Aix is the best place to experience this!) then the UK is turning the page. Thursday’s momentous election has swept the Tories out of power, led to a recovery in the Lib Dem vote, sanctioned the Scottish Nationalists and the unionists in Northern Ireland. A major positive was a rise in the number of female MPs (41% of parliament). While Labour only received a third of the vote, Keir Starmer has a huge stock of political capital in parliament.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Like many others, I have caricatured him as steady and boring. My sense is that Labour will remain so for the foreseeable future, until they are familiar with the levers of power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The striking, first task of Keir Starmer will be the NATO summit (July 9-11) where I expect that he will re-affirm the UK’s commitment to its existing military-security goals, especially on Ukraine (compared to the Tories, the one area that may change is Israel/Palestine where there will be more emphasis from Starmer on finding a negotiated peace). Notably Starmer will have the luxury of being the most popular of the major NATO country leaders, and one with a fresh start. From a foreign policy point of view, we expect him to stress better relations with the EU and Ireland specifically, but it is far too early to expect any initiative on trade. I also expect that the tenor of early policy announcements will be focused on the reform of ‘public life’ (House of Lords, corruption).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If he is really daring, he might visit France.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;You may be interested in our webinar: Changing of the Guard in the UK and France - Implications for Ireland, Wednesday, July 10th at 11am.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/1340793297587056725&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Register here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Contagion of Chaos

&lt;p&gt;In a topsy-turvy world marked by high drama political events such as the recent French election, the turmoil in American politics and the promise of the new government in the UK, not to mention the spectacle of the Olympics, only one event really matters – the onset of the holiday season.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My next-door neighbour, as she packed her bags, asked for a few book recommendations, which I had started to provide by text, but as that got overly lengthy, have written them down here instead (with apologies for the focus on finance and economics).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Regular readers will know that in last week’s note I tackled American politics, and specifically JD Vance, and would recommend his book ‘Hillbily Elegy’ as a text that will help us better help us understand him, and America.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As mentioned, if I were to recommend two books to him – as he ambitiously thinks of the vice presidency, I would highlight Chris Whipple’s ‘The Gatekeepers‘ which explains how seventeen chiefs of staff to American presidents have marshalled their leaders, as well as Robert Reich’s ‘Locked in the Cabinet’ which is a wonderful, humorous study of how power really works in Washington. Two other books on American politics have been recommended to me, and as I trust the judgment of the friends who have highlighted them I want to pass on ‘When the Clock Broke’ by John Ganz, and ‘An American Dreamer’ by David Finkel.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sticking with politics, there are a few ‘tomes’ worth noting for the really serious aficionados’ Robert Caro’s books on Lyndon Johnson could take a long time to read, and Ron Chernow’s ‘Hamilton’, which I would class as a must-read. Crossing the Atlantic, in a more gossipy sense, I often recommend Chip Channon’s ‘Diaries’, and Alan Clark’s ‘Diaries’ is a more tawdry follow up. In a more modern setting, Rory Stewart’s ‘Politics on the Edge’ is decent.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In my experience, the world of finance has been badly neglected by writers – fiction and non-fiction, and it might be that very few people with a literary bent are tempted by finance, and of course, fewer bankers can write well. There are a few exceptions – William Cohan (I enjoyed his book on Lazard, ‘The Last Tycoons’)), Michael Lewis (e.g. Liar’s Poker), Amor Towles – who spent most of his career in investment management but emerged sane enough to produce the exquisite ‘Gentleman in Moscow’, ‘Rules of Civility’ and his latest book, ‘Table for Two’; which I have bought and squirrelled away for later in August.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another writer in this rarefied group is Irish writer Aifric Campbell, who worked in a very senior role in the City, and has produced a number of books – of which ‘The Lovemakers’ is a must read for anyone with an interest in understanding how AI driven robots will interact with humans.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some of the more interesting books on finance relate to deal making in corporate finance and private equity – ‘Barbarians at the Gate’ was perhaps the first blockbuster here, and my private equity friends have also flagged ‘King of Capital’ (David Carey and John Morris) which sketches the rise of Blackstone and the private equity industry.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another asset class that is captivating is art, and here Don Thompson’s - The $12 Million Stuffed Shark - The Curious Economics of Contemporary Art’ is fun.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is a useful set of books that link the economy to changes in society, and vice versa and notable recent books here are ‘Finance and the Good Society’ by Robert Shiller, and ‘Ultra-Processed People’ by Chris van Tulleken. In this field, James Scott, a high accomplished social scientist, died last week and of the books of his I have read ‘Seeing Like a State’ is a very good illustration of the collision of state institutions with social complexity. A not unrelated and more entertaining take on this is William Newman’s ‘Things are so bad they can’t get worse’, the story of the institutional collapse of Venzuela.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Finally, I am stashing a few books away for the holidays, Yoko Tawada’s ‘Memoirs of a Polar Bear’, ‘Le Barman du Ritz’ by Philippe Colin, I have pre-ordered Marietje Schaake’s ‘The Tech Coup’ and for old times sake a few Agatha Christie novels. In addition, my wife tells me that Francois Mauriac recommends the biography of Leon Trotsky, which the Marxist society have helpfully put online here.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

BooksSunday

&lt;p&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio joined Newstalk&#39;s Joe Lynam to discuss events of the week in politics, business and markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/breakfast-business/a-look-at-todays-business-stories-and-websites-with-michael-osullivan&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Listen📻 here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Macron calls for a political truce as the Olympics begin in Paris&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- &#39;The Trump Trade&#39; in the wake of the Kamala Harris candidacy&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- The US delivers better than expected GDP growth in Q2&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Olympics, US Elections and, Rate Cuts

&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-July-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Read July&#39;s Global Macro Outlook in full.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this month’s Global Macro Council, the focus was on technology.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We discussed the current dynamics of the US earnings season and the long-term technological trends that could shape future investment strategies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We provide both a broad overview and specific insights into emerging opportunities, making it essential reading for investors aiming to stay informed in the ever-evolving market landscape.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The World of Tomorrow

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View, our summary of markets and macro news for the week beginning July 29th, 2024:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- In markets news, it’s a big week for quarterly earnings as four of the “Magnificent 7” companies report this week -&amp;nbsp;Microsoft, Meta (Facebook), Apple and Amazon - with all four reporting modest share price returns this year compared to 2023. Investors will be watching for updates on each companies’ AI initiatives.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- On the macro front, both the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve will make interest rate decisions on the 31st. Japan is entering a new regime by claiming victory in its long battle with deflation, however expectations of an interest rate hike this week are mixed. The Fed on the other hand will likely start to signal that they are close to cutting interest rates, although a cut at this meeting is unlikely.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- The Yen has dramatically rebounded against the US Dollar over the last two weeks, setting the scene for a potentially volatile&amp;nbsp;week as central banks from both countries have their meetings on Wednesday. The Yen has increased nearly 5% on expectations that the interest rate differential between the two countries could narrow.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch our investment brief in full here 📽&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/cFsCc_IdayA?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39;&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View 29th July 2024

&lt;p&gt;I have twice shared a stage with J.D. Vance, which at the time of writing puts me one ahead of Donald Trump. On both occasions, Vance’s book ‘Hillbilly Elegy’(I managed to get a signed copy, for my mother-in-law) was seen as offering people a glimpse as to why working class America was switching their traditional allegiance from the Democrats, towards what they perceived to be ‘system-smashing’ politicians like Donald Trump. Indeed, to my own reading, a large section of Irish-America has recently made this political journey.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I thoroughly enjoyed Vance’s book, had widely recommended it, and would continue to do so. He has had a fascinating life, which I am sure will get ever more interesting. Somewhat ironically given the Trump political program, Vance’s success in life is testament to the role of institutions (US Marines and education (not unlike Barack Obama)) and in my view is an argument for greater government spending on education and more open access to elite education in the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When I spoke (at two separate conferences) with him, my unkind thought was that he expressed himself better – more thoughtfully – in writing than in the spoken word. That seems to be changing, and Vance has clearly crafted an ability to provoke. Much has been made of his intellectual journey to the extreme right of American politics, something that has become the norm as the Republican party has become shattered by Trump (a contemporary of mine – an elite soldier and former governor – has also veered off to the extreme right). As a result, the press is full of speculation on Vance’s views on the dollar and Ukraine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Vance is in many respects the opposite of Trump in terms of his life story – he started poor, became a soldier, ‘pulled himself up’ through education and has now converted to Catholicism (thanks in part to the Dominicans). Trump had a privileged upbringing, disdains learning and the military (‘losers’), and could not possibly be more irreligious.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Curiously, the Catholic Church in America, which is much more conservative than that outside the US, appears to be attaching itself to the coattails of the Trump movement, a tactic that helps to explain why it is the largest, oldest institution the world has known.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Vance may now reflect on the role of vice-president, and what this will mean for him. In general, it is a political graveyard, populated by token political players. That Kamala Harris has not carved out a serious role in American public life is testament to this. There are, however, two examples of very effective vice presidents – George W Bush, who was more like a prime minister to Ronald Reagan, and Joe Biden, whose experience and vast range of political relationships meant that Barack Obama was tethered to the political establishment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, Vance, the critic of elites, is at an interesting point.&amp;nbsp;Since ‘Hillbilly’ was released, he has been mixing more with the American elite, in the technology, policy and venture capital worlds. If he enters the White House with Trump, he will come up against the full complexity of the American power machine.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Here I recommend Robert Reich’s excellent book ‘Locked in the Cabinet’. Reich, a professor of labour economics, was appointed Labor Secretary by Bill Clinton, and the book recounts how his optimism and idealism left him outmanoeuvred by those who ‘really ran the world’ (Robert Rubin).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another book that I know Vance has, is Chris Wipple’s ‘The GateKeepers’ which is. fascinating study of seventeen chiefs of staff to American presidents. Trump notoriously went through several chiefs of staff, but in many cases the chief of staff can be the most important player in an administration (Jimmy Baker is the most often cited example).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, for all the clamour around Vance, he might well – like Robert Reich – find himself sidelined by the team around Trump. With the European press over-obsessing about Vance, this is where the real risk lies. The first Trump presidency was chaotic. The second will come armed with a mission to transform America, potentially along the lines of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025’. I will devote more time to this, but in short it is an aggressive plan to re-make American government (politicised), society and the foreign policy. As a recent article in Foreign Affairs put it, this will be an ‘Imperial Presidency’, shorn of the constraints that have shaped American public life for the past two hundred years.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To Europe, the US under Trump will look more like China – driven by a single, imperial leader, obsessed with the viability of domestic industry, slow to help allies and much more transactional in foreign policy, and will use financial policy in a more selfish way. Consistent with the end of globalization, there will no longer be an effort to transmit American values, a la George W Bush and Bill Clinton.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In short, it will be an America that few of us will recognise.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

JD Goes to Washington

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to Unio&#39;s weekly summary of market and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It was a positive week for financial markets with investors buoyed by US inflation data, which showed headline inflation falling to 3.0% and spurring a belief in a rate cut in September.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Global equities rose 0.5% over the week with a greater dispersion in returns than what we have seen so far YTD. The Euro also gained strength against the Dollar on rate cut expectations, rising 0.8% over the week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Quarterly bank results, on the whole, were positive but net interest income fell for JP Morgan and Citi, despite the former posting record profits and the latter beating Wall Street estimates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week, the big macro news will be the ECB interest rate call on the 18th whilst large-cap stocks such as UnitedHealth (16th), Johnson &amp;amp; Johnson (17th) and Netflix (18th) will post their quarterly performance.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch our investment brief for the week ahead:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/u6_bUNk29I8?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View 16th July 2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In last week’s note(s) I focused a lot on France, to the exclusion of mentioning other debates that are live around the world. One that preoccupies me is that of globalization – which for most readers will seem so esoteric and distant, that they may rightly care little about it.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ireland is the case in point - it has been transformed by globalization, and to that extent its fortunes&amp;nbsp;may well be tied to what happens with globalization.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It is in my view worth stopping to think about the direction of globalization – given the way it has shaped the past thirty years. I sense that as globalization crumbles, we are already starting to miss its notable characteristics – peace, low inflation and international prosperity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Three things happened last week that have globalization, or its demise, back on my mind.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;First at the Rencontres Economiques, I had a row with a former German economic minister who claimed that a new wave of globalization was about to start. This claim seemed fanciful, not least that the German economy is cleaven between a reliance on China, a need to be better aligned with the US, a disastrous energy policy and a fascination with Russia that has still not been broken by the war in Ukraine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Granted that globalization refers to a world that is interdependent and interconnected, it is wrong to hold that we live in a globalised world when dependencies are shifting (the US and Europe want to be much less dependent on China for instance) while the US and China barely have any political and policy connections, and are, in the minds of many, about to embark on war.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second encounter that set me thinking about globalization was that I ran into Prof Barry Eichengreen, the international authority on foreign exchange, financial flows and who was passing through Europe on his way back to the US from India, where he had delivered a paper entitled ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.ncaer.org/publication/globalization-and-growth-in-a-bipolar-world__;!!O22_8FOSssc!mQT5uAQxnOOQ2ej31alqTysUbCbkc9ZCgQyBqcNm8iQ8aajejr2M3JFd6_K8jq5gupFEGb-neZ4VlIWbu8wWn-ot$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Globalization and Growth in a bi-polar world’&lt;/a&gt;. Whilst I believe it impossible to enjoy globalization in the context of a world that is severely divided, I was much more careful to pick an argument this time, given Barry’s great mind.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the paper he charts how trade (relative to GDP) – one of the tenets of globalization – has faced severe headwinds but remains at high levels and has changed course somewhat (trade and investment flows have pushed out to countries like Mexico and Vietnam). Capital and financial flows have retraced even more, and the Eichengreen paper details China&#39;s efforts to deepen its financial markets and boost the use of its currency (though its political economy is a major obstacle to this).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The Eichengreen paper, based largely on what we see in trade and capital flows, paints a picture of the contours of globalization as we have come to know it, as remaining in place. However, I would add to the argument other metrics of globalization – the flow of people, the flow of tourism and overseas education, the flow of ideas and of political and diplomatic discourse between nations. On many of these criteria, walls are going up, and it is impossible to speak of there being a consensus on one global system or way of doing things. Markedly, most of the institutions of the globalised world order (IMF, WHO, World Bank to name a few) are defunct.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My argument is that globalization is not to be confused with the ongoing growth of trade, or the business cycle, it is a very specific form of interconnectedness of nations and regions that is breaking down. It started with the fall of communism, and mostly likely died with the snuffing out of Hong Kong’s democracy in 2020.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This idea was part of a great discussion I had with Chris Watling of LongView Economics as part of &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.youtube.com/watch?v=eP7EugH_nWQ__;!!O22_8FOSssc!mQT5uAQxnOOQ2ej31alqTysUbCbkc9ZCgQyBqcNm8iQ8aajejr2M3JFd6_K8jq5gupFEGb-neZ4VlIWbu_X8xUYa$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;their podcast&lt;/a&gt; series. LongView is perhaps the best independent markets and economics research firm, and one of the elements they tend to capture very well is the idea of (short and long-term) cycles of risk appetite in markets and economies. In that context, the idea that we are passing from one long-running economic ‘regime’ (globalization, to something else, was apt.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The Interregnum* will be a period of breaking (down the imbalances that have built up with globalisation such as climate damage and debt) and making (new world institutions and the integration of technology into economies and societies). It will be a noisy, chaotic process and its success is not yet a given.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For the moment, the very least we should do is accept that globalization has passed and start to think about the future.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;*A period when normal government is suspended, especially between successive reigns or regimes. The interregnum was the period in English history from the execution of Charles I in 1649 to the Restoration of Charles II in 1660.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Into the Interregnum

&lt;p&gt;Watch our post-election analysis of the UK and French elections, discussing the implications for Ireland and Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Don&#39;t miss this insightful discussion on the political shifts and their broader impact hosted by Kate Candon, Chief Marketing Officer at Unio in conversation with our guest speakers: Dr. Emmanuelle Schon-Quinlivan and Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Watch here &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/yjeN08szEYU?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Thank you to our speakers: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Dr. Emmanuelle Schon-Quinlivan&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Dr. Emmanuelle Schon-Quinlivan has been a lecturer in European politics at UCC since 2001. She was awarded a Jean Monnet Chair in 2021 and a Teacher Training grant in 2022. Dr. Schon-Quinlivan directs the UCC Hub in Active European Citizenship and led the &quot;My Big Friendly Guide to the European Union&quot; project. Educated at La Sorbonne, Sciences Po Paris, and Edinburgh University, her research focuses on European politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Changing of the Guard in the UK and France: Post-Election Analysis

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 8th July 2024, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Earnings season kicks off this week with the main focus on the big banks and asset management companies. The 12th will be a busy day with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all posting their Q2 results. With interest rates remaining high, it should result in positive net interest income for the banks, however on the flip side, the level of M&amp;amp;A activity and the revenue that flows from it may not be as high.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On the macro side, in France, the recent snap election has resulted in a hung parliament while in the US, uncertainty around President Biden’s ability to run as the Democratic nominee grows.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It&#39;s worth looking out for inflation data in both the US and China over the week. Chinese inflation data will be released on the 10th whilst CPI data in the US will be published on the 11th. The current headline and core inflation rates in the US are 3.3% and 3.4% respectively.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch our investment brief: 📽 ⬇&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/2pdIHonRVNQ?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Weekly View 08 07 2024

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;This webinar is no longer open to registrations. You may view the webinar in full via the following link: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/changing-of-the-guard-in-the-uk-and-france-post-election-analysis&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;View here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Overview&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Join us for a post-election analysis on the UK and French elections, discussing the implications for Ireland and Europe. Don&#39;t miss this insightful discussion on the political shifts and their broader impact.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hosted by Kate Candon, Chief Marketing Officer at Unio in conversation with our guest speakers : Dr. Emmanuelle Schon-Quinlivan and Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Joining Instructions&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Date: Wednesday, 10 July, 2024&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Time: 11:00 to 11:30 am&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;REGISTER HERE&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About our speakers&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Dr. Emmanuelle Schon-Quinlivan&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Dr. Emmanuelle Schon-Quinlivan has been a lecturer in European politics at UCC since 2001. She was awarded a Jean Monnet Chair in 2021 and a Teacher Training grant in 2022. Dr. Schon-Quinlivan directs the UCC Hub in Active European Citizenship and led the &quot;My Big Friendly Guide to the European Union&quot; project. Educated at La Sorbonne, Sciences Po Paris, and Edinburgh University, her research focuses on European politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&lt;/p&gt;

Changing of the Guard in the UK and France: Implications for Ireland

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 01 July 20204, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;View our full investment brief ⬇📽&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/0YxbpMAAEkM?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;All eyes are on the UK this week as the general election takes place on the 4th. The Labour Party holds a commanding lead in the polls with c.42% in favour of a Keir Starmer government.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the US, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the month of May will be released on the 3rd. The minutes should give some insight into policy officials thinking on when the first rate cut will come.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It was a disappointing week across global financial markets. In the equities space, the MSCI World fell 0.2% with the US down 0.3%, Europe down 0.7% and the UK down 1.1%. The latter two regions have seen a sell off in part due to the systemic risks coming from elections in England and France.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The same concerned reaction came in fixed income markets as all major countries saw a rise in their 10 year yields, both Italy and the US up 0.12% each. A continued rise in oil prices, up 1.4% over the week, after strong monthly gains, may well put pressure on headline inflation data released later this month.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients&#39; wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice.&amp;nbsp;If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/sodvwdkei0/lbhlyi9c77v151dy77l1u4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=5&amp;amp;p=64443015&amp;amp;t=31915503__;!!GIL_j7ndwvA!Dl6WHPkYbVBPT1bFb5mk2sFM9ynJvDqyozyeviD7FZN7KxOG_FKcjhs01l9R1A-lGRHtDeWA-BUdAb9WW3hmEY5G$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/sodvwdkei0/15lmkkt7r2o151dy77l1u4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=5&amp;amp;p=64443015&amp;amp;t=31915503__;!!GIL_j7ndwvA!Dl6WHPkYbVBPT1bFb5mk2sFM9ynJvDqyozyeviD7FZN7KxOG_FKcjhs01l9R1A-lGRHtDeWA-BUdAb9WW0Xr-R1V$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View 01 07 2024

&lt;p&gt;Rishi Sunak’s sodden, tragi-comic, and surprise announcement of a UK general election was an amusing episode in a so far uneventful ‘year of democracy’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The announcement was a boon to headline writers, who had fun with phrases like ‘Drowning St’. My attention was piqued by the background music ‘things can only get better’ (D:Ream), which added to the farce, but which British political aficionados will recognise as the song that was also used by Tony Blair’s New Labour party in their 1997 election campaign.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the time, I was finishing my studies and happened to be in London on the day of the election, and vividly recall walking past Downing St, where the sense of a new era was palpable. Today, the challenge for Keir Starmer is whether he can spura new era of growth and renewal in the UK, or whether his party simply turns out to be ‘not the Tories’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the late 1990’s, Blair’s government, bolstered by a very strong front bench, had spent a long time preparing for government, and once in power made a series of dramatic policy moves (see our recent note ‘Does debt smother politics?). By comparison, the most important question for the July 4th election – with the Tories 21 points behind Labour in the polls and destined to be wiped out (some 100 sitting MP’s, mostly Tories, will not stand this time) is, how ready are Labour?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whilst the election announcement has taken many Tory MPs by surprise, my sense is that Labour would also have much preferred a November election – they still must find candidates for over 80 seats and faces a few awkward spots such as Islington North where Jeremy Corbyn will stand as an independent. Indeed, the fact that both the Tories and Labour are logistically unprepared for a July election might benefit the Liberal Democrats, which opens up a small chance of a coalition government (importantly electoral reform would be the price of this).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To date, Keir Starmer’s Labour has given relatively few details on its program, partly to allow space for the Tories to slip up and partly not to skew the debate on the outlook for the economy. This will be Labour’s greatest challenge.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When Blair came to power in 1997 the British economy was bigger than that of China and India together, the world was under the steam of globalization and debt to GDP in the UK was close to 40%. Today, China regards Britain as a ‘little island’ (nothing wrong with little islands!), globalization has come asunder and debt to GDP is 100%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I suspect that if there are early, dramatic wins for Starmer, they will be in tax (cutting back exemptions for the wealthy and potentially a wealth tax), corruption (standards in public life), and institutional reform (end of the House of Lords?).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Revitalising the economy will take longer, notably because Labour will initially stick to the UK’s fiscal rules and take pains to avoid any early volatility in the pound and gilt markets. In order to enact its plans for technology and ‘green energy’ investment Labour will most likely have to create partnership with international institutional investors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Outside of these areas it is not clear to me how Labour can immediately reverse the damage done to educational, social services (NHS) and the fabric of small towns and cities, exacted by the Tories. It will require a level of imagination, funding and policy continuity not seen in British politics for decades.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In foreign policy, Labour’s approach will be a much less contentious one – relations with Ireland (which have deteriorated since Johnson) will be much warmer, and the approach to the EU will most likely be less confrontational and more collaborative. Whilst David Lammy (shadow foreign secretary) has spent a decent amount of time in the US, courting Republicans and Democrats, the scenario of a Trump presidency and a Labour government is a high probability one, but a configuration that would stretch the notion of a ‘special relationship’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In defence I expect little headline level changes to Britain’s commitments, but the shadow defence minister John Healey will likely re-organise the military command and HQ, and importantly spend a good deal of time reorganising defence investment and procurement so that it gives ‘value for money’.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the next few weeks, Labour faces twin, urgent challenges – mobilising the party across the UK, focusing on making inroads in the south and Scotland, and then preparing for government in the context of a gargantuan challenge.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The good news is that the summer holidays start just after the election which I suspect will mean that the effective policy launch of the new government will kick off in September.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Sunday View is written by Mike O&#39; Sullivan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;About Mike O&#39;Sullivan&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Author of &quot;The Levelling - What Next After Globalisation&quot;, Mike O&#39;Sullivan chairs the Unio Global Macro Council, the Unio Investment Committee, and is a director at Unio. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth and is an expert in European financial policy working with a number of European fintech firms.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this environment. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or contact us at &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Sunday View: Is Labour ready?

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 24 June 2024, our summary of markets and macro news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our full investment brief ⬇📽&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/HXap7ni21mc?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a year dominated by global elections, attention shifts to the US Presidential election.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On the 27th at 21:00 ET, Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off in their first debate in Atlanta, Georgia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It&#39;s becoming clear that investors are looking to see a unified government (congress &amp;amp; executive branch) in the control of either party. Whilst polling data does not reflect guaranteed asset class performance, it does indicate the current mood of investors in relation to the potential impact of the November election. See chart below.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MC54OBWXXW4JCV5GKLFDE42MXTXE?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Chart showing the potential impact of different US election outcomes on major asset classes.&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20Y7Q000000upsg&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MC54OBWXXW4JCV5GKLFDE42MXTXE&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;chart of week 24062024.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions. If you want to find out more, talk to your Unio adviser or get in touch here: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://unio.ie/contact&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View 24.06.2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It is an understatement to say that the weekend of the 5th July will be a watershed for democracy and politics on both sides of the Channel. It seems that for once since Brexit, Labour might bring a dull calm to British public life, whilst the contagion of political chaos has spread to Paris.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;But, as Britain moves left politically and France appears ready to shift rightwards, there is more at stake than politics. Both economies are burdened with huge debt loads, and the ways in which politicians navigate these will determine the geo-economic future of these two UN security council members, and serve as a lesson to other indebted nations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The economic cases of Britain and France are worthy of attention in at least two respects. The first is their long, often shared economic history. This is the third time that debt levels in both countries have spiked to extreme levels – ominously the previous episodes were the aftermath of the world wars and the period after the Napoleonic Wars. Then, the actions, principally of Pitt the Younger in reforming the economy and financial system meant Britain leapt ahead of France as the power of the 19th century.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second is that unlike other high debt economies such as the USA, the French and British economies are barely growing, and appear to have lost the means to do so. Neither do they enjoy the exorbitant privilege that the dollar permits. To that end, the high debt challenge posed to London and Paris is a precarious one, with broad implications. At this stage, at least three of those are clear.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first of these relates to the ways in which high deficits and debt loads will condition politics. Neither country has much fiscal space and this may well tilt the political debate further towards topics like identity, immigration and values. This has been the case in France (and Italy) for some time.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In Britain, it&#39;s hard not to feel that the recent Labour manifesto is ‘boring, boring’ like Keir Starmer’s favourite football team, reflecting Labour’s desire to tiptoe around the fiscal risks facing Britain. Consistent with this, it would not be a surprise that a prospective Labour government could choose to kick-off its term in office with a focus on institutional reform (Houses of Commons and Lords) and accountability in public life.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second challenge for new governments in Britain and France will be growth, and this is where the real policy lessons will be learnt. As neither country has the scope to enact a hefty fiscal stimulus, new growth must be endogenous to reforms in both economic systems. In this respect Labour, whose keenness to halt policy uncertainty and desire for foreign investment, are in a much easier place.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In France, the strong likelihood is that the aftermath of the July 7th vote is accompanied by an economic shock, driven by the entire lack of transparency and credibility that the far-left and far-right bring to economic policy, as well as their antipathy to foreign investors and corporates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The third question is who might help France and Britain soften the impact of their debt loads. In financial markets there is a growing view that central banks will need to be deployed to recycle the debt loads of the economies they oversee. This is effectively the case in Japan, though the Bank of England may be loath to be seen to cap gilt yields (especially after the Truss debacle) and the ECB’s Governing Council would be badly split on the issue of ‘rescuing’ France.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The more likely avenue is greater collaboration with private investors (private equity, very large pension funds and some sovereign wealth funds) where projects that would ordinarily be funded and run by the state, are instead jointly capitalized and managed by private institutional investors, and some corporations. This is a likely avenue for Britain on green infrastructure and could continue to be the case for France in sectors like artificial intelligence.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As July approaches, investors are already starting to vote, gilts and the pound are calm, but there is a budding crisis in the French bond market.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit&amp;nbsp;Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/sodvwdkei0/lbhlyi9c77v151dy77l1u4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=5&amp;amp;p=64443015&amp;amp;t=31915503__;!!GIL_j7ndwvA!Dl6WHPkYbVBPT1bFb5mk2sFM9ynJvDqyozyeviD7FZN7KxOG_FKcjhs01l9R1A-lGRHtDeWA-BUdAb9WW3hmEY5G$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&amp;nbsp;or&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/sodvwdkei0/15lmkkt7r2o151dy77l1u4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=5&amp;amp;p=64443015&amp;amp;t=31915503__;!!GIL_j7ndwvA!Dl6WHPkYbVBPT1bFb5mk2sFM9ynJvDqyozyeviD7FZN7KxOG_FKcjhs01l9R1A-lGRHtDeWA-BUdAb9WW0Xr-R1V$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

A Tale of Two Debts

&lt;p&gt;At this month’s&lt;strong&gt; Global Macro Council&lt;/strong&gt;, the focus was on the &lt;strong&gt;UK election.&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;July 4th will very likely bring a change of government, an end to heightened political volatility, and a chance for the UK economy to begin to mend. As such, a period of calm and the beginnings of growth in the UK would also be a positive for the Irish economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/UNIO-GMC-Outlook-June-2024.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read June’s Global Macro Outlook in full. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This month, we were fortunate to be joined by guest speakers, Jamie Dannhauser, Ruffer LLP and Daniel Wales, Fulcrum Asset Management, who shared their insights and expertise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions. If you want to find out more, talk to your &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt; or get in touch &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;here. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

A New Start

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 17 June 2024.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Last week, French President Macron called a snap parliamentary election, leading to the biggest weekly drop in French stocks since 2022, as fears of a far-right majority gain momentum. Banks were heavily sold off, with higher inflation and a rate cut also hurting the sector.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- This week, attention shifts to the UK as the general election approaches. Labour, led by Keir Starmer, holds a strong lead at 42% in the polls. May inflation data, to be released on the 19th, currently stands at 2.3%. A lower figure may bolster the Conservatives and PM Sunak but is unlikely to significantly sway voters. It might influence the Bank of England’s rate decision on the 20th, with the current rate at 5.25%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Companies to watch this week include Mastercard and Toyota Motor Corp, who hold their AGMs on the 18th, and Accenture plc reports Q3 2024 earnings on the 20th. Falling interest rates may shape Mastercard’s outlook, while EU tariffs on Chinese EVs could benefit Toyota’s EV market.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;View our full investment brief ⬇📽&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/YHgS1YWgLcg?showinfo=0&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Speak to you Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch. &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View 17.06.2024

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This Sunday, Mike O&#39;Sullivan reviews Starmer’s policy playbook, worth paying attention to because of the likelihood that Labour will form the next government in the UK.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One of the more ‘colourful’ habits in the otherwise sensible life of Sir Keir Starmer is that he is an Arsenal supporter, to the extent that he has been quizzed on this in media interviews, and cruelly asked if, like Arsenal, he will ‘bottle’ the premiership. For those non-football fans amongst you, even Arsenal fans like to chant ‘boring, boring..Arsenal’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Consistent with his devotion to Arsenal, ‘boring, boring’ seems to be the guiding light of Starmer’s policy playbook, launched formally on Thursday in the form of the 23,000-word, 134 page Labour manifesto.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The subset of individuals who peruse political party manifestos is small, and I have heroically dug into it to save readers the trouble. It is worth paying attention to because of the likelihood that Labour will form the next government in the UK.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My first take is that the manifesto is very conservative, with a small &#39;c&#39;, in the sense that it emphasises Starmer&#39;s reluctance to change many elements of existing fiscal policy (corporate tax stays at 25% for example) and effectively&amp;nbsp;ventures very little in terms of dramatic policy moves.&amp;nbsp;The headlines stress no &#39;austerity&#39; but it is also hard to see this package producing a durable expansion and return to productivity.&amp;nbsp;The manifesto is accompanied by a laborious compilation of the costs of the Labour programme, the object of which must be to convince markets that Labour are on top of their fiscal ‘game’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My sense is that the manifesto is characteristic of a party that&amp;nbsp;wants to avoid any kind of policy hiccup before the election, and confirms my sense that the big policy moves, if there are any, will come in the autumn or early 2025, once the government has been bedded in.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;On balance it is a manifesto for workers rather than capitalists. The message for workers is that income tax, national insurance contributions and VAT won&#39;t change, but we will see small groups (private equity execs for instance) treated more severely. Also, with the abolition of generous non-dom tax status, the international wealthy will feel the fiscal pain, added to which private education fees will be charged VAT. These measures are expected to raise GBP 6bn, which is small in the context of the economy and deficit. More efficiencies in spending&amp;nbsp;are expected to bring &#39;new&#39; fiscal boost to GBP 8.5bn&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;From the point of view of companies and investors, there is not yet much here to worry about, but neither much to be excited for.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;We also have a little more colour on the landmark innovation of the manifesto, GB Energy - the brainchild of Ed Miliband (one of the most experienced Labour ministers and the most &#39;policy ready&#39; one). GB Energy will be based in Scotland and will invest in renewables (co-invest with the private sector in new green technologies, and help scale up start ups in segments like solar and wind, and help to invest in the&amp;nbsp;installation of green energy infrastructure). It will take on existing state owned stakes in energy projects like GB Nuclear, and the aim is to capitalise it (likely in 2025 to the tune of GBP 8bn). One element for the energy sector is the flagging in the manifesto of much tougher regulation of the energy sector (in terms of consumer prices).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;On healthcare, my first impression is that the improvements flagged for the NHS are not transformative and as a trend, point towards more outsourcing of services, away from hospitals.&amp;nbsp;Finally, there are some interesting comments in the &#39;serving the country&#39; section of the manifesto (reform of the House of Lords and a focus on ethics in public life). My expectation is that Labour will lead with these reforms once in power.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In more detail, I think Labour will win the July 4th election, their immediate accession to power will be marked by a number of high-profile foreign affairs events (i.e. NATO summit) where Starmer will be able to look ‘presidential’. August will be quiet and I think the early policy moves will come, as above, in the area of institutional reform.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As we move into the autumn, the focus will turn to economics, and I suspect Labour will lead this with a series of announcements on inward investment. The launch of GB Energy and the national wealth fund will follow.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This manifesto is deliberately ‘boring’ in the sense that it will ease Labour’s passage through the election campaign with little policy friction. Voters’ disdain for the Tories will be enough for Labour to win handsomely, and they may well be helped by the damage that the Reform party will do to the Tories.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;With the economy in mind, the absence of chaos that should accompany a Labour government (as opposed to the Tories) should help, and a great deal will depend on international factors. However, the manifesto, in my view, is not a convincing plan in terms of kickstarting productivity in the UK economy. ‘Boring’ will not be enough to satisfy the economic challenge that has been left to Starmer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;From the point of view of Ireland it will matter a great deal that our closest neighbour could return to growth. Relations between London and Dublin will most certainly improve, but the spoiler is that the shadow defence secretary John Healey has spoken repeatedly of the ‘Irish free-riding problem’ in defence. Higher spending on security might well be the unexpected cost to Ireland of a Labour victory.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit&amp;nbsp;Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What&#39;s next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland (&#39;Ireland and the Global Question&#39;, and &#39;What did we do right?&#39;) and was an independent member of Ireland&#39;s National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions. If you want to learn more,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/sodvwdkei0/lbhlyi9c77v151dy77l1u4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=5&amp;amp;p=64443015&amp;amp;t=31915503__;!!GIL_j7ndwvA!Dl6WHPkYbVBPT1bFb5mk2sFM9ynJvDqyozyeviD7FZN7KxOG_FKcjhs01l9R1A-lGRHtDeWA-BUdAb9WW3hmEY5G$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your&amp;nbsp;Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/uniofinancialservicesltd.newsweaver.com/sodvwdkei0/15lmkkt7r2o151dy77l1u4/external?email=true&amp;amp;a=5&amp;amp;p=64443015&amp;amp;t=31915503__;!!GIL_j7ndwvA!Dl6WHPkYbVBPT1bFb5mk2sFM9ynJvDqyozyeviD7FZN7KxOG_FKcjhs01l9R1A-lGRHtDeWA-BUdAb9WW0Xr-R1V$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Deliberately boring?

&lt;p&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Strategic Adviser and Director, Unio provides his first thoughts on the implications of the European elections for Europe, and notably for France as the drama unfolds in Paris, and considers consequences for macro and private markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;The State of play in Europe&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;The European elections have left the centre still ‘holding’, the Greens badly damaged, a mixed night for the far-right, Meloni in the ascendency across Europe and Macron not only damaged but now imperilled by his decision to call an election. Scholz in Germany is also damaged but at least he has not imperilled himself in the same way that Macron has.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From a European point of view, the European &#39;centre&#39; in the parliament looks like it will hold (the European Peoples&#39; Party (EPP) has fared well) and a new executive (Von der Leyen etc) will most likely be elected. Its momentum is boosted by a good showing for Donald Tusk, and the decent showing for Friedrich Merz’ party in Germany. The major story is in France, where the Rassemblement National has performed in line with the polls, in its best ever elections, and Emmanuel Macron has called a parliamentary election for the end of June/early July. Though this move was allegedly prepared some months ago, in my view this is a mistake - echoing the decision of Rishi Sunak recently for example.&quot; Read more &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeosullivan/2024/06/10/macron-goes-full-sunakthe-risk-to-france-rises/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Macron Goes Full ‘Sunak’ - The Risk To France Rises, by Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Forbes, 10/06/2024&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;What are the implications for macro and private markets?&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Macron&#39;s move introduces some tail-risk to euro zone assets and the euro will be weaker for the next couple of months.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- This is a pity as the euro-zone economy is starting to pick up, and enjoy rate cuts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Arguably, we will see less stringent green regulation, however the megatrend of green tech spending will continue.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- The fact that the EPP remains &#39;in control&#39; is generally &#39;good for business&#39;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- A new departure in private investment is defence and the momentum in AI and Digital etc will continue.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About Mike O&#39;Sullivan&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Author of &quot;The Levelling - What Next After Globalisation&quot;, Mike O&#39;Sullivan chairs the Unio Global Macro Council, the Unio Investment Committee, and is a director at Unio. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy working with a number of European fintech firms.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions in this new environment. If you want to find out more, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;talk to your Unio adviser&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Macron Goes Full ‘Sunak’ - The Risk To France Rises

&lt;p&gt;Welcome to the Unio Weekly View for the week beginning 10 June, 2024, our summary of macro and markets news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week in summary:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- After the ECB’s rate cut last week, attention will turn to the US where the Federal Reserve will make an interest rate call on the 12th. The current rate stands at 5.5%, however there is an expectation that rates will stay unchanged at the upcoming meeting. On the same day, the inflation rate for May will be released in the US. Current headline inflation stands at 3.4%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Economists have pencilled in the September meeting as when the US central bank may start to cut rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- In markets news, Oracle Corp will announce their Q4 earnings on the 11th. The stock has performed strongly YTD, up c.18.6%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- Adobe post their quarterly results on the 13th. The stock has sold off c.21% YTD in part due to the collapse of its $20bn buyout of Figma. At their Q1 results, management did provide weaker than expected Q2 guidance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- And finally, Nvidia became the second most valuable company in the world after surpassing Apple and breaking through the $3 Tr Market Cap value.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch The Unio Weekly View, our investment brief for the week ahead:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/HLBO9qnRza0?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions. If you would like to find out more, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt; or contact us &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/contact&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Weekly View 10.06.2024

&lt;p&gt;Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser,&amp;nbsp;Unio joined Newstalk&#39;s Joe Lynam this morning to discuss today&#39;s business and markets news.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Topics discussed today included:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The legal battle between the European Union and Meta as the Digital Services Act is deployed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;US interest rates remain stubbornly high. ECB has signalled a June rate cut.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;AI creates job, 800 more announced this week at IBM.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wallstreet: Dow Jones breaks 40,000 for the first time.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://open.spotify.com/episode/6RPjVA81iJjEOlYw5hMLGK?si=7tdVDic8QPGjdOWQs2maQg&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Listen here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;(8 mins, 38 seconds)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions. If you want to find out more, talk to your Unio adviser or contact us at&amp;nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Unio On Newstalk

&lt;p&gt;In what could be a defining moment at the ballot box for Europe, the European Elections take place this week. Ireland goes to the polls on June 7th.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With dynamic shifts in political leanings and a potential far-right surge of “anti-European” parties, watch our webinar to hear a discussion that will bring you closer to the rapidly changing political and economic landscape and the potential implications for your financial decisions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This webinar is hosted by Kate Candon, Chief Marketing Officer at Unio in conversation with Mike O&#39;Sullivan, Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch the webinar in full here:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/sz5aLimnZo0?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are happy to provide you with the insights you need to make informed investment decisions. If you would like to find out more, speak with your Unio adviser or contact us at &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:info@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;info@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

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