&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In most countries, central bankers are anonymous bureaucrats, and rightly so. In America, this is not so, thanks largely to the size of its economy and financial markets, culture of personality and fabled role of the Federal Reserve. In the past sixty years, the chiefs of the Fed have been household names, though most of them will have been uncomfortable with this level of attention. Like the characters in the Wizard of Oz, the career of each Fed chief has been characterised by a particular character trait – Paul Volcker was courage exemplified, Ben Bernanke displayed great intelligence under pressure, Janet Yellen was scholarly, and Jerome Powell was calm and patient (with his president). &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Amongst them, Alan Greenspan, who died last week at the age of 100, was the governor who elevated the Fed to its mythical status, and who through his eighteen years at the helm of the central bank, captured markets with his ‘delphic’ form of communication. It is worth repeating that Greenspan once quipped to a reporter that ‘If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said’. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At the time, central bankers spoke less to journalists and were far less transparent in their communication. Kevin Warsh the new Fed chief wants to return towards this approach though he might bear in mind that, so sparing was Greenspan in his messaging, that market watchers tried to guess changes in monetary policy from the size of Greenspan’s briefcase. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Greenspan was an unusual central banker in terms of the trajectory of his career; he had made a name on Wall Street as a consulting economist with a focus on very detailed sector level data. Through the 1987 crash, crises in Russia, Asia, Latin America and the hedge fund LTCM, he won the confidence of investors, but critics will argue that he ultimately allowed himself to become seduced by Wall Street and failed to adequately regulate it in the run up to the global financial (housing) crisis. Many of the obituaries of Greenspan will focus on his role as ‘Maestro’ (the title of Bob Woodward’s book on Greenspan) but there is also an interesting way in which his era contrasts with our own, and the lessons it holds for the future. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;First the Greenspan era (1987-2006) was one of building and growing, and accelerated globalization. In general, the 1990s and 2000s were periods of rising expectations, whereas today that is not generally the case across countries. A notable feature was the sense that ‘things were on the up’ in the 1990s was the growth of emerging markets. In contrast, our era is one of vandalization of the institutions that permitted globalization, and in many countries, of a struggle with decline (Britain, Germany and possibly the US are cases in point).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Secondly, the Greenspan period was one where the USA was first amongst equals of nations and this permitted it to play a coordinating role in international economic policy. The most striking image of this came with the February 1999 Time magazine cover that marked the end of the Asian and Russian financial crises with a photo showing Alan Greenspan (Chairman, Federal Reserve), Larry Summers (economic adviser to President Clinton) and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, under the banner ‘Committee to Save the World’. That could not happen today. Notably, the Greenspan era was one of collaboration between nations, and also across policy and political bodies (bipartisanship) in Congress and close coordination between the Fed and the Treasury). Today, growing distrust makes collaboration very difficult, but collaboration is essential to both avoiding and resolving financial crises. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then, a feature of the 1990s and 2000s was the debate around balancing the budget, something that Republicans proclaimed as sacrosanct, but that only Democrat Robert Rubin achieved. In particular, Greenspan was critical of George W Bush for his governments’ lax approach to fiscal matters. At very least then, Treasury Secretaries tried to rein in budget deficits and generally talked a good game around this. Today, public finances in nearly all the major economies are on cruise-control for fiscal ruin. In the major economies budget deficits register 5% or more, something that would historically be associated with a bad recession. Debt levels, at 100% (to GDP), would have been unthinkable to investors and policy makers in the 1990s.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If today’s world is an ‘upside down’ version of the 1990s, then the challenges that Greenspan faced are germane. One risk is that there is a bubble in AI-driven stocks, and the range of market valuation and investor behaviour indicators are tipping levels not seen since 2000 (and 1929!). I can recall a debate in the late 1990s when the Alan Greenspan Federal Reserve pondered publicly what it should do if there was a bubble in the stock market, the inconclusive outcome of which was that bubbles were very difficult to identify, so it was best to do relatively little, but to then actively mop up the mess once the bubbles burst. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Many central bankers will still agree with this approach, and the context has changed in important ways. The technology behind this bubble is strategic and it is very clear that firms like OpenAI and Palantir are closely aligned with the US government for example. AI is also the principal source of investment led growth, and is thus a sacred economic cow, even though it will swell private sector indebtedness. As such few central bankers may want to puncture this bubble. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This week’s volatile price action in technology stocks (South Korea’s market fell by over 10%) suggest that central bankers should in fact be more vigilant in the face of what Greenspan called ‘irrational exuberance’. He faced the 1987 crash only two months into his tenure. Kevin Warsh, who wants to re-make the Fed a little more in the image of Greenspan, should pay attention. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; book a complimentary Wealth Check &lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Irrational Exuberance

&lt;h2&gt;A Bit of Reality: Bitcoin and the Liquidity Test Ahead&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The advent of the Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve with its first meeting last Wednesday, very likely heralds a new departure in American central banking. The Warsh Fed will likely be less effusive in its communication (notably there will be less public defending why the Fed doesn’t hit its forecast levels of rates and inflation), will be more closely coordinated with the Treasury, and if the track record of the new governor is to be believed, will be much more reluctant to use the balance sheet of the central bank to support markets and the animal spirits of the economy. The real test of this will be next economic crisis, potentially a public debt crisis that starts in the next couple of years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the medium term, the backdrop to the Warsh Fed will likely be characterised by tighter liquidity conditions. Warsh will likely slow the Fed’s reserve accumulation program, equity issuance by tech firms, IPOs, new bond issuance (again, for AI infrastructure) will also mop up market liquidity and following a bout of bond retirement in the second quarter owing to a bumper tax take, the US Treasury will increase debt issuance from the end of June onwards (up to USD 600bn in Q3).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;So broadly speaking from a ‘plumbing’ view of markets, there will be less liquidity shooting around the pipelines of markets. Ordinarily, this is not great news for risky assets like equities, especially with valuations at the very top of 100-year ranges. However, the asset class that intrigues me, is bitcoin, already a significant underperformer this year. The mystery being that bitcoin has yet to reveal its true identity as an asset class, let alone a money.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Bitcoin was established in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, as an alternative to paper money and the institutional framework around that money (i.e. the Fed and the ECB), but has failed in this aim. Bitcoin is not a money. It is simply far too volatile to act as a reliable store of value or basis for payment. Also, the technology associated with cryptocurrencies is also complex enough to dissuade most households from using them.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As a case in point, I can recall that in bitcoin’s early days (2016), train stations in Switzerland’s ‘Crypto Valley’ had a facility to exchange swiss francs for bitcoin, and the canton accepted bitcoin as payment for taxes and services. But transaction fees were very high, and this experiment hasn’t caught on. In fact, only some 0.1% of tax settlements in the canton of Zug were paid in bitcoin.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;While the Swiss authorities were happy to give bitcoin the benefit of the doubt, most institutions in the old-finance world, primarily central banks who plan their own digital currencies, have an incentive for it not to succeed, and famously in 2021 Christine Lagarde referred to bitcoin’s ‘funny business’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Reflecting this, the weakness of bitcoin has not been the technology, but rather the infrastructure around it, and the people who have used it as a means of payment. In the past five years, a good number of exchanges (in Asia) and brokers have collapsed or been shut down, and the entry and exit points to the crypto world are under examination from tax authorities. Also, the anthropology and sociology of those who populate the crypto world is crucial to how these assets behave and subsequently to their risk characteristics. In this light, the fact that the biggest holder of bitcoins is apparently the FBI says a lot.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Bitcoin, and the broader crypto world, now face two new competitors of sorts. One is the growth of stablecoins (which are based on the Ethereum blockchain), which may facilitate ‘grey’ economy transactions far more efficiently than bitcoin. The other is AI, whose claim on the electricity and energy sources of the world, makes the production of bitcoin more expensive. Lurking in the future is quantum technology, which some fear could break the bitcoin protocol.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;So, bitcoin is far away from meeting the objectives of a ‘money’, and in my view is a ‘tulip’, a speculative, trading asset. It also seems to me that many people are increasingly happy with bitcoin being assigned this role, and much of the interest and eco-system that is developing around it underpins the role of bitcoin as a speculative asset rather than as a bona fide currency.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As such, this points to bitcoin and crypto currencies being ushered into the corner of eclectic trading assets – though less of an experience than horse racing, with none of the aesthetic bonus of art and not quite the fun of collecting wine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;These assets tend, in my experience, to be driven by waves of liquidity, and surges in wealth, as opposed to more fundamental factors. Thus, with the prospect of weaker liquidity ahead, bitcoin is in for a test. It has been claimed that bitcoin is a safe haven, or digital gold, but in general its tendency is to weaken as macro uncertainty rises. It might be the first victim of the Warsh era.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; book a complimentary Wealth Check &lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

A bit of Reality

&lt;h1 style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://forms.office.com/e/9J7U6retp9&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;CLICK HERE to Enter the Irish Life Dublin Marathon competition &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What does it take to go from thinking about it to completing a marathon?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hi, I'm Antonio Porcu and I work as a IT Lead Architect at Unio. Outside of work, sport has always been a big part of my life. To date, I've completed 22 marathons, including all six World Marathon Majors, with a personal best of 2:36:21 at the Berlin Marathon in 2019. The thing I'm most proud of is not any particular result, but the consistency I've maintained over the years. Sport has taught me discipline, resilience and patience, qualities that have helped me both in running and in my professional career.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Personal Stats&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Number of marathons completed: 22&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Personal Best: 2:36:21&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First marathon: Dublin Marathon 2012&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Next race: Hopefully Dublin Marathon, otherwise Valencia Marathon&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Go-to gear: A good pair of running shoes(Asics Novablast), a GPS watch and consistency are the essentials&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;You’ve recently completed the Cape Town Marathon, which is being considered as a future World Marathon Major, how did it compare to other races you’ve run, and what stood out to you about the experience?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Cape Town was an incredible experience. The scenery is unique, the atmosphere was fantastic and the local support was amazing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Compared to some of the World Marathon Majors, it feels slightly less crowded, but that gives it its own character. The course is more challenging than many people expect and the views throughout the race are unforgettable. It is definitely one of the most beautiful marathons I have run.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Was there a standout moment from the day that really stayed with you?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the moments that stayed with me most was seeing Table Mountain while running through the city. As runners, we often travel around the world chasing races, and Cape Town reminded me how special it is to experience a city from a marathon course. It was also exciting to experience a race that could become a future World Marathon Major. You could really feel the energy and ambition behind the event. Crossing the finish line knowing I had completed another marathon in such an iconic location was a great feeling.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;You've run 22 marathons to date, what first got you into it, and what made you stick with it?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I've always been involved in sport. When I was younger, I was a competitive swimmer and developed a strong aerobic base.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;After moving to Dublin, I started running mainly to stay fit and manage my weight. I began with shorter races such as 3Ks, 5Ks and 10Ks, and gradually increased the distance. Over time I became fascinated by the challenge of the marathon. Interestingly, marathon running is probably not my natural strength. I believe I'm naturally better suited to shorter endurance events where speed plays a bigger role. However, the marathon became my favourite distance because of the physical and mental challenge it presents.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Do you remember your first marathon, and how has your experience evolved since?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My first marathon was the Dublin Marathon in 2012. At that stage, my goal was simply to finish and enjoy the experience. Over the years, through consistent training and experience, I gradually improved my performances and eventually achieved a personal best of 2:36:21 at the Berlin Marathon in 2019. The biggest lesson I've learned is that improvement doesn't happen overnight. It comes from years of consistency, learning from mistakes and enjoying the process.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What does a typical training week look like for you in the lead up to a race?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A typical marathon training week includes around 80 to 90 kilometres of running. I usually have one interval session, one tempo or threshold session, several easy recovery runs and a long run at the weekend. I also include strength training to help prevent injuries and improve overall running efficiency.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One aspect of my training that I find particularly interesting is lactate testing. I follow many of the principles used in the Norwegian training model, using lactate measurements to help control intensity and ensure I'm training at the right effort level. It allows me to train more precisely and avoid doing too much hard running.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The key for me is consistency rather than trying to do one spectacular workout.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How do you fit marathon training around work and everything else?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For me, consistency is the most important part of marathon training. I'm not an early morning runner. Most of my training happens after work, so I need to organise my day around it. Sometimes that means heading straight out for a run after work, and sometimes it means training late in the evening.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There have been plenty of occasions where I've started a workout at 10 or even 10:30 at night simply because I didn't want to miss a session. Life, work and family commitments don't always make training easy, but I've learned that consistency over many years is what makes the difference.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Not every workout is perfect and sometimes sessions need to be adjusted, but I always try to keep the routine going. I believe that showing up consistently is more important than any single training session.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What goes through your head in the final stretch of a marathon?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Usually a mix of relief, excitement and determination. After months of training, you know you're about to achieve something you've worked hard for. At the same time, you're trying to stay focused and squeeze out every last bit of energy before reaching the finish line.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;For anyone thinking about taking on the Dublin Marathon this year — what would you say to them?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Go for it. You don't need to be an elite runner to complete a marathon. The most important thing is to start, follow a sensible training plan and stay consistent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Dublin Marathon has a fantastic atmosphere and incredible crowd support. Whether your goal is simply to finish or to achieve a personal best, crossing that finish line is an experience you'll never forget.&lt;/p&gt;

What does it take to go from thinking about it to completing a marathon?

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Older readers might remember actor Ray McAnally, one of Ireland’s best but slightly forgotten actors. Anyone curious to sample his talent should watch the 1992 three part series ‘A Very British Coup’. It is based on the book of the same name by Chris Mullin, the former Labour MP, Birmingham Six campaigner, and someone who was regarded as one of the most likeable MPs in Westminster. His political diaries are also appreciated as the best in the genre.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;‘A Very British Coup’ appeared around the same time as Michael Dobbs’ ‘House of Cards’, which is now famous in its American incarnation, though the British version is far better. In Mullins’ book, the central character is Harry Perkins, a newly elected left wing prime minister from Sheffield, and someone who wears his man of the people identity proudly. As soon as Perkins takes power, he runs up against the establishment, the press, the City, security services and the American government. Despite a valiant resistance, Perkins is eventually forced from power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The book and tv series came to mind for two reasons, both of which concern next week’s Makersfield by-election on June 18, which could vault Manchester’s mayor Andy Burnham into Downing Street. The resignation of defence secretary John Healey, makes this all the more dramatic.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first reason is that this manoeuvre is a particularly British one in terms of the logistics of the electoral process and consistent with the tendency in Westminster to discard prime ministers as if they are football managers. No wonder that some commentators refer to the Italianisation of British politics (in the 1990’s the average duration of an Italian government was one year, and we may now be on the brink of the seventh prime minister in ten years in the UK). To succeed, Burnham will need a comfortable victory in Makersfield, and a groundswell of support from Labour MP’s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second issue relates to the inbox of prospective prime minister Burnham. He is known to be far more political and personable than Starmer, and his mixture of ‘Irish blood and English heart’ (to quote Morrissey) will equip him for the challenges ahead.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Oddly, given the magnitude of change in the world order, some of the challenges that a possible prime minister Burnham will face, are like the ones that confronted Harry Perkins – a gloomy public mood and atmosphere of economic decline, trouble with the Americans and a pressing need to keep up with new technologies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The special relationship between Washington and London is, like many other institutions of the post Bretton Woods era (NATO, the UN, World Trade Organisation), in real trouble. Senior American politicians like JD Vance and Elon Musk think little of inserting themselves into the debate on immigration and identity in the UK. The NHS is on the verge of cancelling a large contract with Palantir, and the White House has managed to push the UK back towards the EU politically. It has done much the same for Iceland, Norway, Ukraine, Hungary and even Canada.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then, there is the gloom of the economy. In recent months a series of books has been published about the UK economy, the general tenor of which is captured by AG Hopkins’ ‘The Land Where Nothing Works’. There is a very clear, though frustratingly long-term (for politicians) policy recipe that might allow the UK to lift its sluggish trend growth rate. It involves an overhaul of the education system, far greater state funding of the universities, reform of the welfare state and labour market, and cultivation of broader private investment. Chatter on the left wing of the Labour party suggests that this may not be the chosen path of a Burnham cabinet.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The other related element is technology. In ‘A Very British Coup’, computers were edging into the mainstream, now robots, humanoids and AI are the mainstream. Thanks to the work of a few talented private sector entrepreneurs the UK last year launched its AI Opportunity Plan, which in my view is one of the most coherent strategies for the build-out of a national AI plan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Last week, the Starmer government followed this with the AI Hardware Plan, which leans heavily on the development of British super computing and next generation semiconductor capabilities.&nbsp;In both cases, Britain has the talent, the vision, but lacks real capital (two months ago the capitalisation of the Taiwanese and South Korean stock markets passed out the FTSE 100), and very markedly, the execution from politicians is missing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If Andy Burnham becomes prime minister this summer, the risk is that he stops at the political coup of winning power, like the six prime ministers who have preceded him. A real coup would be to restore confidence and momentum in the economy and make Britain a relevant power in the 21st century.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; book a complimentary Wealth Check &lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

A Very British Coup

&lt;h1&gt;How artificial intelligence is reshaping markets, valuations and the future of investing&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Since Anthropic’s “Mythos moment”, the impact of AI on our lives has become unmistakable. The power of its latest model was so striking that regulators on both sides of the Atlantic moved quickly to assess potential risks, particularly the possibility of systems abandoning ‘moral’ guardrails and exploiting, rather than fixing, software vulnerabilities.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;And, with good timing, Pope Leo XIV has published a thoughtful note, Magnifica Humanitas, on how AI should be deployed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;AI Moves from Breakthrough to Investment Reality&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Nowhere is that truer than in finance. According to Pitchbook, 45% of all American unicorns (venture-backed companies with a valuation above USD 1bn) are AI-driven, not bad for a technology that, to public eyes, barely existed three years ago. In more detail, two earlier venture-backed successes, Bytedance (i.e. TikTok) and Uber had been established for 80 months when they launched their first products. OpenAI and Anthropic have done so after 30 months, and each is now worth close to USD 1 trn. Equally, illustrating the link between investor exuberance and AI, the FT recently estimated that two-thirds of the value of SpaceX is attributable to investments made in the company in the six months since December 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When this trio of AI firms lists on the stock market, revised index inclusion rules will add their weight to the already substantial 44% representation of technology stocks in the major indices. To that end, AI is no longer a market theme or fad but is becoming an asset class in its own right.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;From Market Trend to AI as an Asset Class&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the factors that distinguishes a genuine asset class from a market theme or fad is the presence of a transformative technology, with a lasting economic impact. In the context of an otherwise pedestrian US economy, AI capital expenditure is the dominant growth driver and in the last year, expenditure on data centres in the US hit USD 1 trillion.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A comprehensive study from Stanford’s Forecasting Research Institute (March 2026) compared GDP forecasts from different types of forecasters – economists in the private sector, academics, AI experts and the general public. Unsurprisingly, those closest to the AI industry tended to have the highest GDP forecasts, while academics were more grounded. On balance though, there is a consensus view that AI will lift the trend rate of growth in the US.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;How Investors Can Access AI Exposure&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are also increasingly varied ways to invest in AI. An AI-centric portfolio can now span private equity, venture capital, infrastructure (clean energy for data centres), real estate (data centres), currencies such as the Korean won, corporate bonds (Amazon, Meta, Oracle and Alphabet have issued nearly USD 150bn in bonds this year) and private credit. Indeed, AI-related private credit investments are expected to grow by over USD 1.5 trn in the next two years. While there is already a rich mix of AI-centric asset classes, the correlations between them remain high, limiting the diversification benefit.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two other markers of the emergence of AI as an asset class are worth noting. First, the resources that investment banks commit to AI-driven deals, capital market events and security research, which are already substantial I am told.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Second, as noted recently, AI has its own distinctive mode of corporate governance – strong-willed founders who monopolise voting rights, enormous pay packets and neutered boards. This concentration of control is likely to prove one of the structural vulnerabilities of the AI complex as scrutiny from regulators and institutional investors intensifies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Given the scale of AI’s footprint across markets, one of the essential tasks for investors will be to identify assets uncorrelated with AI (e.g. luxury goods, food), as well as hedges on AI assets. And, as the suspected AI bubble grows in value, investment managers will have to find ways of protecting portfolios against sharp reversals in AI valuations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The investment dimension of the AI boom carries particular urgency. Given the risk that AI (as per Mythos) creates potentially existential security and economic risks, and could disrupt labour markets, there is a strategic need for pension funds and sovereign wealth funds to have exposure to the economic benefits of AI. As it stands, the risk is that billions of people will have their lives and livelihoods changed by AI, but the benefits accrue to only a narrow group of investors and executives. In that regard, the advent of AI as an asset class gives individuals, countries and investment funds a means of participating in the upside of the AI boom.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Risks, Valuations and the Question of an AI Bubble&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The one formidable obstacle investors will have to navigate is the sense that we are in the thick of an AI bubble. Already long-run valuation measures - such as the ratio of market price to long-run earnings (the ‘Shiller P/E’), or the ratio of the value of the US stock market to GDP -&nbsp;are testing all-time highs, at levels not seen since 1929 and 2000. In this way, AI is truly everywhere, in our savings, investments and pensions, and that will be a risk.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; book a complimentary Wealth Check &lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

AI as an Asset Class

&lt;h1&gt;Managing Your Finances During Redundancy&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Conor Jordan, Private Client Adviser at Unio, examines the rise in tech sector redundancies in Ireland and outlines key considerations for managing finances during redundancy, including short‑term expenditure, long‑term planning, pensions and investments. 4-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Tech redundancies in Ireland: what the data shows&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It will be no surprise to read that in Ireland, there has been a significant increase in the number of redundancies within the tech sector.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;According to Eurofound (the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions), Ireland accounts for the largest proportion (around 40%) of all redundancies in the tech sector in the European Union(EU).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sixteen of the top twenty global tech companies and the top three enterprise software providers base their European Operations in Ireland, and 106,000 people are employed within the IT industry1.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The ‘Great Tech Reset’ began in 2022 and gathered pace into 2023 with an estimated 428,449 global tech workers losing their jobs2. This continued into 2025 with over 118,000 layoffs3.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;According to &lt;a href=&quot;https://layoffs.fyi/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Layoffs.fyi&lt;/a&gt; more than 111,000 tech employees had already been laid off across 147 tech companies by mid-May 2026, indicating that the pace of redundancies has accelerated significantly this year4 .&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In May 2026, Meta announced that they would be looking to make further cuts to their Irish workforce this year. They will look to reduce their global workforce by around 20%5. Meta employs 1,800 people through their Irish operation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many multinational tech employers including Amazon, Oracle, PayPal and a host of smaller firms maintain sizeable operations in Ireland, leaving employees there waiting to learn the extent to which local roles may be affected by ongoing global redundancy programmes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Redundancy can be challenging - financially and emotionally&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In today's economic landscape, for clients impacted by circumstances out of their control, facing redundancy can be a challenging chapter in one's career.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Amidst the potential emotional and financial stress of redundancy, making informed and considered decisions about your finances can be difficult.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Balancing short‑term needs with long‑term plans&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Redundancy often brings a lump sum severance payment, providing a financial cushion during the transition period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The immediate, shorter term financial decisions you make during this period could have an impact on your long-term financial health. It can be challenging to balance these more pressurized, short-term decisions while keeping your longer-term financial plan on track.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Five practical steps to manage your finances during redundancy&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;-&lt;/strong&gt;Taking prudent steps to manage your outgoings insofar as it is possible.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The potential investment of the lump sum for the long-term, if you have another employment to move to, or if you have a sufficient emergency fund already in place.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Considering whether to clear debt, either mortgage related or more expensive short-term debt such as credit cards or car loans.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The decision as to how you elect to receive your redundancy payment, and particular waiving or retaining your pension tax-free lump sum.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Making a pension ‘top-up’ payment, if possible, to offset the potential interruption of contributions to your pension fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The importance of expert financial advice&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Seeking professional financial advice becomes paramount during this time. The stress of redundancy may hinder clear, strategic thinking about long-term financial planning. Financial Planners can offer clarity, guiding you through the options and ensuring your decisions align with your long-term financial goals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Expert advice can provide a clear roadmap, offering insights into optimizing your redundancy payment’s impact, it’s interaction with your pension fund and outlining clearly the steps you might take to safeguard your financial future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial Planning should contribute to all aspects of your wellbeing – financial, physical, mental and psychological. We are here to offer straightforward advice, to provide structured Financial Planning and to offer comfort that you are focused on things that you can control.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Next steps&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you’ve been impacted by redundancy, speaking to a financial adviser can help you understand your options and make informed decisions for the future. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Get in touch&lt;/a&gt; and one of our advisers will clarify your position and help you maximise&nbsp;your next steps.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Sources: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1]&lt;em&gt; &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.idaireland.com/explore-your-sector/business-sectors/technology&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://www.idaireland.com/explore-your-sector/business-sectors/technology&lt;/a&gt;, IDA, 2026&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[2] &lt;a href=&quot;https://techfundingnews.com/the-ripple-effect-of-big-tech-what-can-we-learn-from-startup-layoffs-in-2025&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://techfundingnews.com/the-ripple-effect-of-big-tech-what-can-we-learn-from-startup-layoffs-in-2025&lt;/a&gt;, February 2025&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[3] &lt;a href=&quot;https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/10/tech-layoffs-2024-list&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/10/tech-layoffs-2024-list&lt;/a&gt;, December 2025&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[4] &lt;a href=&quot;https://layoffs.fyi/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://layoffs.fyi&lt;/a&gt;, May 2025&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[5] &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.independent.ie/business/up-to-350-jobs-at-risk-as-meta-informs-government-of-proposed-staff-cuts-in-ireland/a/152159004.html&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Up to 350 jobs at risk as Meta informs Government of proposed staff cuts in Ireland | Irish Independent&lt;/a&gt;. May, 2025&lt;/p&gt;

Navigating Redundancy in the Tech Sector

&lt;h1 style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;Irish Savers Failing to Capitalise on Investment Opportunities as Inflation Continues to Erode Value of Cash Savings&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Almost half of people in Ireland and 28% of high earning households don’t realise money is losing value sitting in a deposit account&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;One in three adults say investing feels too risky because of market fluctuations, rising to 38% among higher-income AB consumers&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31% of high earners say investing is too complicated&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Dublin, 22 May 2026: Almost half of adults in Ireland do not realise their money is losing value while sitting in a deposit account and many are failing to capitalise on investment opportunities to protect their long-term wealth, according to the newly released Savings Reality Survey(1) commissioned by Unio Wealth Management.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While some people are increasing their savings - with 28% of AB consumers doing so over the past year, the research shows that holding wealth predominantly in cash is not keeping pace with rising prices.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The findings indicate a need for greater awareness and access to financial advice. With 2.6m people in Ireland being under-advised, having not accessed financial advice in over 2 years, many people are missing opportunities to protect the value of their money and take control of their financial future(2).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Inflation Is the Real Risk — Yet Markets Get the Blame&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland may be a wealthy nation that saves, with over €170bn3 cash sitting in bank deposits, but saving only in cash means that wealth can quietly slip backwards over time. The Savings Reality Survey from Unio Wealth Management highlights that inflation is steadily eroding the real value of wealth, often without people realising just how much their wealth is depreciating.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, according to the Unio Savings Reality Calculator4 someone with €300,000 in savings could see the real value of their money fall by €64,354 to around €235,646 over 10 years if left as cash on deposit in the bank. By contrast, the same amount could potentially grow in real value up to €374,378 if invested in a balanced diversified portfolio for the same period, highlighting a significant “opportunity gap” and the impact of inflation on idle savings5.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The research findings highlight a widespread caution towards investing, even as inflation steadily erodes the value of cash held in traditional savings accounts. Fears around market volatility continue to outweigh concerns about inflation, despite the long-term negative impact on savings. One in three adults say investing feels too risky because of market fluctuations, rising to 38% among higher-income AB consumers. Yet, inflation guarantees a gradual loss of purchasing power over time, raising the question of why people would accept a guaranteed loss by holding cash.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Choosing to keep money in cash is itself a financial decision - one that carries a less visible cost. As inflation rises, the real spending power of savings declines over time, leaving households gradually worse off. This “silent” erosion of wealth underscores the trade-off facing many Irish consumers between perceived short-term stability and long-term financial protection.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A Knowledge Gap Is Keeping People on the Sidelines&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A lack of confidence and knowledge emerged as a key barrier to investing among Irish consumers highlighting the need for easy access to financial advice. Notably, 40% say they ‘don’t know enough about investing’, a figure that remains consistent among AB consumers and households with more than €100,000 income per year, highlighting a significant pool of potential future investors who may simply need guidance to take their next step.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A further 23% said they find investing too complicated, rising to 31% for higher income households. The findings point to a significant knowledge gap that continues to hold people back from engaging with investment opportunities.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This suggests that, despite increased availability of platforms and products, many consumers remain on the sidelines due to uncertainty and perceived complexity.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Derek Buckley, Chief Commercial Officer, Unio Wealth Management said: “Inflation can quietly erode savings, and many people don’t realise the impact. While Ireland’s saving culture is a national strength, it’s important to understand how cash can lose value over time. Without a plan that can outpace inflation, households risk falling behind despite their best efforts. We encourage people to try &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Unio’s Savings Reality Calculator&lt;/a&gt; to see the effect for themselves. The right advice and planning can help people make informed decisions with confidence, making their money work harder and building long-term financial resilience.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To help people better understand how inflation and time can impact the real value of cash, Unio Wealth Management has developed a &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Savings Reality Calculator&lt;/a&gt;, designed to illustrate how different choices can affect wealth over the long term. The tool is intended to support informed conversations about savings, investing and financial planning.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Notes to editors&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. About the Savings Reality Survey. The Unio Savings Reality Survey was conducted by RED C via the RED Line Online Omnibus with 1,006 respondents, between 29 January and 3 February 2026. Data was weighted to reflect the national population.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2. RED C Research conducted on behalf of Irish Life with 2,000 people from 23 February – 06 March 2026. Data was weighted to reflect the national population.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;3. Central Bank of Ireland, March 2026 Bank Balance Sheets | Central Bank of Ireland&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;4. Unio Savings Reality Calculator, see &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;www.unio.ie/savings-reality-check&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Unio Savings Reality Calculator gives people a simple, transparent way to see how inflation erodes the real value of cash over time. By comparing cash on deposit with an illustrative long term investment projection, individuals can visualise the long term impact of inflation and investment choices. The tool is designed to support financial understanding rather than provide investment advice.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;5. The €300,000 illustration is based on an investment in a balanced, diversified portfolio achieving an assumed annual return of 5% over a 10-year period. Assumed inflation rate of 2.7% per annum. Deposit interest rate assumed: 0.25% per annum. Management charges, fees and taxes are excluded from the calculations. Values are shown on an inflation-adjusted basis. Real value refers to nominal value that has been adjusted for the effects of inflation.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Outcomes are informed by Unio Capital Market Assumptions (December, 2025), which are developed using long-term institutional capital market expectations from multiple global investment partners. Expected returns of 5% are assumed for balanced portfolios (conventionally a 60:40 equity–bond mix).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Important Warnings&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• The value of your investment may go down as well as up.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• If you invest in this product, you may lose some or all of the money you invest.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• These figures are estimates only and are not a reliable guide to future performance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;• Returns may be affected by changes in currency exchange rates.&lt;/p&gt;

Irish Savers Failing to Capitalise on Investment Opportunities

&lt;h1&gt;Mixed Market Signals: Are We Approaching a Market Reset?&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This month’s GMC outlook, examines the increasingly conflicting signals across markets, and the prospect that these tensions may ultimately resolve through a broader market reset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Mixed Market Signals&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Markets are at a pivotal point. Bond yields are rising across the board as bond investors worry about inflation and mounting debt levels, while oil prices are creeping inexorably higher amid warnings that the world economy (particularly Africa, Asia and Europe) is on the verge of an energy shock with no clear end in sights to the Iran War. At the same time, a small number of technology stocks have rallied impressively in recent weeks (Intel had trebled in value since the end of March) pushing the key indices to all-time highs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At a broad level, it is difficult to reconcile the risks from rising bond yields and energy prices with the continued optimism in technology stocks. Something has to give. At this month’s Global Macro Council, we explored the prospect of a market reset and what it could mean for strategic investors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Narrow Market Rally&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the short-run, equities look vulnerable to a correction. The recent rally (from the Iran War lows) has been one of the fastest on record, in terms of how quickly markets have reached new highs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But, that new high for the S&amp;P 500 has arrived on the back of a small number of AI-related, mostly semiconductor stocks. In fact, as the broad market has climbed higher the majority of stocks in the index have not rallied, and this now suggests that exuberance in technology stocks may represent a short-term risk. In addition, several indicators from our investment toolbox suggest that risk appetite is currently stretched.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We therefore expect some form of pullback, but remain less concerned about the medium-term outlook. One clear takeaway from the recent rally is that the earnings and business cycles remain healthy, particularly in terms of corporate activity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, the risk is that the momentum of the business cycle is upset by the effect of higher interest rates and by the friction from higher energy costs. In the United States (US) the consumer is an area of concern.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the start of this year we wrote about the ‘K-shaped’ economy, where a smaller group of wealthier households continues to drive spending, while a larger, more vulnerable cohort is increasingly exposed to higher costs such as fuel and mortgage rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We also note that the growth outlook in Asia and the US is predicated on continued momentum in AI-related capital expenditure.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Market Reset Ahead&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our overall expectation is that extreme asset prices resolve themselves lower – potentially in the sequence that higher yields threaten growth which crimps potential demand for energy (oil falls), and hits risk appetite for technology stocks, and then yields subside.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With an eye on the rest of this year, we have greater confidence that energy prices will come down. A more perplexing question is whether the main driver of corporate earnings, AI investment (bear in mind we have some large IPOs on the way), will itself drive inflation, and prolonged high yields.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Download this month's GMC Outlook: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Unio-GMC-_May-2026-Into-Thin-Air-2.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Into Thin Air &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; book a complimentary Wealth Check &lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Into Thin Air

&lt;h1&gt;Predator or Prey? Navigating a Changing Global Order&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On Wednesday, I had dinner in Jack’s Brasserie in Bern, an iconic restaurant not far from two of the institutions that have overseen the rise in power and wealth of Switzerland, its national (central) bank and parliament. My visit to Jack’s was triggered by the fact that I had just finished Giuliano da Empoli’s latest book ‘Hour of the Predator’, and Jack’s was the location of a ‘Lunch with the FT’ between da Empoli and Simon Kuper. Often the FT’s Lunch series throws up sterile exchanges, but this was a good one, and Simon managed to convey the ambience of Jack’s, so I had to go along.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Da Empoli has spent his life in public policy, as a writer on politics, and adviser to former Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi (he occasionally advised another centrist, Emmanuel Macron). He became famous with his book ‘The Wizard of the Kremlin’ (now a film where Jude Law does a passable impersonation of Vladimir Putin), but it is his latest book ‘The Hour of the Predator’ that I find highly pertinent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Da Empoli originally published his works in French and has benefited from the short form novels or longish essays that are popular in France and that should really be more widespread in the English-speaking world. One of his talents are pen portraits, notably of politicians he has encountered – from Mohammed Bin Salman, now ruler of Saudi Arabia, Nayib Bukele of El Salvador and Joe Biden.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Da Empoli’s ‘Predators’ thesis is highly relevant to Europeans. It is yet another framing of the idea of the unravelling of globalization, and the chaotic start of a new world order. In this context, ‘Predators’ are autocratic, populist politicians and hyper wealthy technology entrepreneurs. They act in sudden, brutal ways, using technology and social media for control and operating outside the established norms and rules. They justify this on the basis that it is a necessary cost of remaking the system and allegedly handing power back to the people.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Readers will have a good idea of who the ‘Predators’ are. They have succeeded in accelerating the pace in politics and geopolitics (for example in the first three months of this year we have had attacks on Venezuela, Iran, a threat to attack Greenland and a stealthy suppression of Cuba). The smashing of the established way of doing things and the undercutting of the institutions that have enabled globalization (from NATO to the UN) are part of the ‘Predator’ tradecraft. As a result, economic policy volatility is at an all-time high and financial markets face contradictory signals, with bond yields, energy prices and technology stocks all at record highs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The action and drama associated with the ‘Predators’ is seductive, but the question we need to ask is whether they are builders and visionaries, or merely agents of chaos, and vandals? The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) experiment, for instance, suggests the latter. The degradation of corporate governance in the US is another case in point. The danger is that the public, either as investors in some of the landmark IPOs, or as taxpayers, is left holding the bill. My instinct is that most Americans will soon want their laws and institutions back, and stability restored.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Predators need prey, and many of the ‘Predators’ appear to unite in disdain against Europe. For them, the likes of Renzi and Macron typify the over-educated, lawyerly, social liberalism of Europe. Early in the rise of the ‘Predators’, they took control of the geopolitical narrative, painting Europe as a slow moving, regulatory beast. Indeed, Europe is guilty of moving sluggishly, and electorates are impatient about a range of issues. Neither has it found the urgency and capital to match the rise of America’s technology sector.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For its part however, Europe needs to realize that the rules of the game have changed, such that there are now few rules (Macron, inspired by Da Empoli, has voiced this view), and for instance needs to adopt a more aggressive stance against Russian interference across the continent, and to permit the radical overhaul of industry and finance across Europe. Sadly, it appears to do the opposite.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Finally, there is no country in greater need of the ‘Hour of the Predators’ view than Ireland. More than any other country in Europe, public and political stances cling to the sense that the institutions and norms of the globalized era are still operational. It would be better if they were but that is sadly not the case. The debate on security and defence is a case in point. All other small, advanced countries – from Singapore to Switzerland – are bracing themselves and equipping for a nastier world. Ireland is not and may soon find it is the prey.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; book a complimentary Wealth Check &lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Predator or Prey?

&lt;h1&gt;Unio Sponsors Munster Senior Tour 1000 Open at Sunday’s Well&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We are delighted to sponsor the &lt;strong&gt;Unio Munster Senior Tour 1000 Open&lt;/strong&gt; at &lt;a href=&quot;https://sundayswell.ie/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Sunday’s Well Boating and Tennis Club&lt;/a&gt;, running from &lt;strong&gt;12 to 23 May&lt;/strong&gt;. A much‑loved fixture on the Irish tennis calendar, the tournament attracts senior players from across the country and continues to go from strength to strength&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Set within one of Cork’s most historic clubs, the Munster Senior Tour 1000 Open is known for its high standards of competition, great atmosphere and strong sense of community, both on and off the court. The event plays an important role in supporting and celebrating senior tennis in Ireland, bringing players and supporters together from across the country.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio Wealth Management is proud to support Sunday’s Well Boating and Tennis Club and a tournament that continues to make such a positive contribution to Irish tennis at all levels.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pictured at the launch are representatives from Unio Wealth Management and Sunday’s Well Boating and Tennis Club celebrating the Munster Senior Tour 1000 Open sponsorship: Derek Buckley, Chief Commercial Officer, Unio Wealth Management; Dave Hannam Secretary/ Manager; Sunday's Well Boating and Tennis Club; Kevin McCarthy, Tournament Director, Dave Carroll, Chairman; Claire O'Riordan Murray, Club Captain; Noreen Stokes, Business Development Director, Unio Wealth Management; and, Donal Johnson, Sunday's Well Committee.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MC4VPCM2GXEBAGVNRBBA5MBQUMTY?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Unio Wealth Management representatives at Sunday’s Well Tennis Club Cork&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YS700000rN2In&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MC4VPCM2GXEBAGVNRBBA5MBQUMTY&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;unio at Sunday's well.jfif&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Game on at Sunday's Well

&lt;h1&gt;Markets in a Bermuda Triangle: Making Sense of Conflicting Signals&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a child I was fascinated and terrified by tales of the Bermuda Triangle, an area between Florida, Puerto Rico and Bermuda where ships and planes disappeared without warning, allegedly. Legend had it that a mysterious magnetic field around the Sargasso Sea drew vessels to perdition, or that even darker forces were behind the disappearance of the crew of the Mary Celeste.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Without stretching the analogy too far, my feeling is that financial markets have entered a logical Bermuda Triangle, or even Trilemma. Data, models, rules and indicators go in, only to emerge logically impaired. In particular, there is an unreal sense from at least three asset classes that are at historically extreme levels, each apparently contradicting the other. They cannot all be right.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In one corner, the US has, for the first time since 2007, issued long-term debt (30 years maturity) at a yield of 5%. Then, US stock market valuations are at an all-time high since 1929 and, as we stressed in last week’s note, semiconductor stocks are in a speculative frenzy. In another corner of the triangle, oil prices are pushing the highs of the last two decades.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This trio of market signals leaves investing logic in a grey zone — a Bermuda Triangle-like make-believe world. This stretched logic suggests that the prosperity and productivity of AI-related capital expenditure will rescue the world from both high inflation and a debt crisis, and will also prove powerful enough to compensate for the effects of a momentary energy crisis. I am not sure.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The confluence of these three indicators is interesting because each one points to a long-term trend that investors and policymakers cannot ignore, but equally, each one rests on a short-run vulnerability.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Rising bond yields in Europe, the UK, Japan and the US are an early warning of a debt crisis, or debt purgatory, to come. In the very short term, they signal that inflation is creeping higher whilst a number of policymakers — notably on the Fed’s FOMC — appear complacent about this development.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equities are trading at record high levels and valuations, mostly because earnings and business cycles are strong. But a very small number of stocks has pushed the market higher, caused in part by the fact that sectors like semiconductors are heavily financialised.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What I mean by this is that the deployment of exchange-traded funds and options has surcharged the prices of semiconductor stocks, and likely driven them well above long-term fundamental valuations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In my view, Intel’s ability to treble in value since the end of March (from USD 41 to USD 129 last week) has less to do with the fundamentals of the company, and more to do with speculation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In support of this, a recent Goldman Sachs note shows that retail investors now account for around 20% of US stock market trading, while wealthier households hold roughly 40% of the market.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Energy prices remind us that in a multipolar world, commodities — or rather their supply and refinement — acquire a premium, and that a number of countries will have to address shortcomings in industrial supply chains. For example, last week Willie Walsh, the former airline chief executive, warned that the UK has scant jet fuel refining capacity. As such, energy infrastructure will be an area for future investment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the short term, however, supply pressure may be more acute: oil inventories are being drawn sharply lower. Unless there is a full and speedy resolution to the Iran War, estimates from JP Morgan point to world oil inventories dropping to 6.8 billion barrels by September — just enough to keep refineries operating worldwide.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, like the Sargasso Sea, market compasses are spinning in different directions, and it is difficult to discern a clear narrative. The confusion arises from the changing geopolitical nature of the world, the fast shift in industrial structure away from ‘bits’ and towards ‘atoms’, shortages of refined oil and compute, and the intense financializaton of specialised sub-industries such as semiconductors and commodities.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Given the disagreement between markets, the obvious question is: which one is right? A ‘two-handed’ economist might argue that the stock, commodity and bond markets are all correct, but on different time frames.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In my experience, the bond market is the most consequential, because when it worries, it imposes a cost on other markets and on political actors. The overused but apt quote from President Clinton’s adviser James Carville in the mid-1990s captures it well: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, the ‘market triangle’ or trilemma is resolved by bonds showing their displeasure at high oil and inflation, slowing the economy and walloping the over-bought sections of the stock market.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From a policy angle, bond markets are highlighting the urgent need for policymakers to calm inflation — through rate rises from central banks, and an early test for incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — for governments to reduce debt, and for greater policy clarity in countries like the UK. The silver lining is that credit markets are so far well behaved, signalling that the healthy business cycle should allow for these policy actions to be made now, before it is too late.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&nbsp;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; book a complimentary Wealth Check &lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Lost at Sea

&lt;h1&gt;Taking the First Step on the Investment Ladder&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Investing doesn’t have to mean taking big risks. For many people, a balanced portfolio can be a sensible first step, helping your money work a bit harder over time while keeping things measured and manageable.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this article, Ger Fitzgerald explains how balanced investing can help you begin at a pace that feels comfortable and right for you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When people start thinking about investing, it’s sometimes about achieving a return, more often, it’s about wanting their money to do something&lt;em&gt; &lt;/em&gt;to support future plans, protect long-term spending power, or simply work a bit harder over time. That’s often where a balanced portfolio comes into the conversation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A step away from “all or nothing”&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Getting onto the investment ladder doesn’t mean jumping straight into high-risk investing. A balanced portfolio is often used as a first step, allowing your money to start working harder while keeping a stabilising element in place. This type of portfolio typically combines:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Growth assets, such as shares, which aim to grow your money over time.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Stabilising assets, such as bonds and cash like investments, which are there to help reduce sharp ups and downs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This mix is designed to feel more measured than investing fully in shares, while offering greater long-term potential than leaving everything in cash.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Warning: the value of your investment may go down as well as up.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Why a Balanced Portfolio Appeals to Cash‑Heavy Investors&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When markets are strong, the growth side of a balanced portfolio can help drive returns. When markets are unsettled, the defensive elements are there to help cushion the journey.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For clients moving from cash into investing, this balance can make that first step feel more controlled and more comfortable.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Investing over time, not overnight&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Balanced portfolios are generally used with a medium to long-term horizon in mind. Over time, market ups and downs tend to smooth out but values will still fluctuate, and returns are never guaranteed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That’s why we focus not just on the portfolio itself, but on:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-how much you invest&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-when you invest&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-and how it fits alongside the cash you want to keep accessible.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;How an Adviser Helps You Take the First Step with Confidence&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As advisers, our role is to help you get on the investment ladder at a pace that feels right for you. That might mean starting gradually, reviewing and adjusting the balance as your confidence, goals and circumstances evolve.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Investing doesn’t have to replace cash, it can complement it, helping your wealth work harder while staying aligned with your comfort level.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Time for a Savings Reality Check?&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Discover the cost of doing nothing with your wealth with&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Unio’s Savings Reality Check.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;Then take the next step with a no‑obligation &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Wealth Check&lt;/a&gt;. A Unio adviser will help you understand your options and answer your questions in a simple 30 minute call about you, your wealth and how to grow it. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Book your Wealth check today! &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Warning: the value of your investment may go down as well as up.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;About the author&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ger Fitzgerald, FIA, FSAI, CERA is Head of Investment Strategy at Unio, responsible for the delivery of investment solutions. Ger advises clients and trustee boards on investment requirements, asset allocation and manager selection. Ger sits on Unio’s Global Macro Council and Investment Committee. Ger is an Actuary, Chartered Enterprise Risk Actuary, QFA and Pension Trustee Practitioner.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Further reading:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/is-inflation-quietly-eating-away-your-cash&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Is Inflation quietly eating away your cash?&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Taking the First Step on the Investment Ladder

&lt;h1&gt;Goodbye Governance - AI Unicorns, Mega-Caps &amp; Governance Risk&nbsp;&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A long time ago, when I completed my postgraduate studies, I shelved my thesis (on the relationship between corporate governance and company performance) away in a dusty library, thinking that, like many academic works, it would have no relevance in the world of business. Yet, soon after, as the tide went out on the dot.com bubble, a series of major corporate governance scandals surfaced (Enron being the most prominent).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Hopefully my sense of timing is better with experience, and I have started to think of the corporate governance/performance link again. There are a few recent triggers. The value of Intel, having languished in the doldrums for decades, has recovered toward the levels seen in 2000. Taiwan and South Korea, as we noted last week, have become two of the largest stock markets in the world. A range of valuation measures for the US market and indicators of retail participation in the market, are at 2000 nosebleed levels. It also seems that technology companies are growing on steroids, Samsung has become a USD 1 trillion firm last week and Nvidia is now worth USD 5 trillion.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The really new development is the advent of mega-cap start-ups like Anthropic and SpaceX, both of which have raised capital at valuations close to USD 1 trillion. Trotting behind them, according to the May edition of the Pitchbook Unicorn Tracker (a unicorn is a private company with a value of USD 1bn or greater), are 1,680 unicorns. There were 44 when the term was coined in 2013. Today’s unicorns are worth close to USD 9 trillion (the top 3 companies are worth USD 2.5 trn). About 40% of the total unicorn value is made up of AI firms, which suggests that they are very young indeed. In the history of economics and business, this is an entirely new phenomenon. For it to have happened, several things have changed since the dot.com bubble.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is that public and private markets have grown impressively. Not only are US public markets the largest that they have been relative to GDP, but private capital (private equity, venture capital, etc.) is now becoming a sizeable source of financing internationally. As it does, different forms of investor are emerging within it – private credit is the one that currently gets attention, but many growth capital investors have helped to push unicorn valuations to extremes for fear of missing out on hot deals. For example, the median value of late-stage venture deals in AI firms is now USD 5bn, a USD 4bn premium on non-AI firms.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An interesting new element in capital structure is that new, fast growing firms count governments as shareholders, as well as the ranks of former officials and those in the political ecosystem (France’s Mistral is a case in point). Further, the large technology firms have also become active venture investors, and in many recent earnings reports the item ‘other income’ popped up, showing how the likes of Microsoft are already reaping the benefits of their investments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two other significant changes are worth flagging. The advent of social media and, more recently, AI-driven commerce means that successful companies can grow very quickly. Large established firms like Apple, Microsoft and JP Morgan have taken decades to grow but are being ‘caught’ by young companies with relatively small workforces, and the effect is disruptive — largely, though not always, positively so. This is much less the case in Europe, which also lacks the small but critical cohort of individuals who know how to build and scale new firms rapidly.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The emergence of a new business model is well-timed for the evolving world order. Recall that the Joint Stock Company Act of 1844 helped to spur the expansion of the British empire in the 19th century, the arrival of the ‘global business model’ (Theodore Levitt’s 1983 essay ‘The Globalization of Markets’ captured this development) was the modus operandi through which America transmitted globalisation around the world (or as one economist put it multinationals were the ‘B-52’s of globalization’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, to my original statement, the arrival of new, fast-growing, private companies (many of which are pre-IPO firms), comes at a time when corporate governance in the US is at a low ebb, in terms of the alignment of executive pay with outcomes, active boards, shareholder vigilance, and oversight by institutions like the SEC and Department of Justice.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Further, new, young companies bring their own governance foibles. Many are led by individuals with strong personalities, a necessary quality in start-ups, many would argue, but an undesirable one from a governance point of view, especially where technologies like AI demand ethical guardrails in their deployment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Further, many fast-growing firms have complicated capital structures and voting rights. In the past, slower-moving capital market cycles and better regulation might have weeded these out but have instead become the norm. Incorporation in regulatory ‘paradises’ (more businesses are set up in Texas for instance), the prohibition of shareholder class actions, non-profit structures and heavy share-based compensation have become the norm. This matters because more retail investors can access ‘soon to be private’ companies, in addition to subscribing for IPOs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Above all, many of these firms have as yet little to show in terms of profits and in the context of stratospheric valuations, the risk of a bubble is high. Once the AI capital expenditure boom slows, the tide will go out —as Warren Buffett famously observed, and many will lose their capital, and will wonder if they should have paid more attention to corporate governance. If they do, I have an old study to share with them.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Goodbye Governance

&lt;h1&gt;Richard Jones appointed CEO of Unio Financial Services&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Leadership team further strengthened with the appointment of Derek Buckley as Chief Commercial Officer&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCZLSJZS54JBEHTL3RSUCJSZOGMU?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Richard Jones, CEO and Derek Buckley, CCO, Unio&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YS700000orkOV&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCZLSJZS54JBEHTL3RSUCJSZOGMU&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Richard Doyle and Derek Buckley .jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Richard Jones, CEO and Derek Buckley, CCO, Unio&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio Financial Services Ltd, has today announced the appointment of Richard Jones as Chief Executive Officer. As one of Ireland’s leading wealth management and employee benefits firms, Unio oversees more than €14 billion in client assets. Jones took up his role in May 2026.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Jones brings extensive leadership experience across wealth management, insurance and financial services. Prior to joining Unio, he held a number of senior leadership roles within Bank of Ireland Group, including Director of Strategy &amp; Transformation for Wealth &amp; Insurance and Interim Chief Executive Officer of New Ireland Assurance. Over the course of his career he has held senior executive positions with leading international financial institutions, working across Ireland, the UK, the United States and Australia. Richard is a Chartered Director and holds an Economics degree and a Master of Business Administration (MBA).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Incoming CEO of Unio, Richard Jones, said: “I am delighted to be joining Unio Financial Services, one of Ireland’s leading wealth management and employee benefits businesses, at such an important stage in its development. With a strong heritage supporting both personal and corporate clients, and the backing of the global Great-West Lifeco group, Unio has built a reputation for trusted advice, long-term relationships and consistent delivery.’&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;‘As we enter our next phase of growth, we will focus on deepening client partnerships, continuing to invest in our capabilities and further establishing Unio as one of the leading firms shaping Ireland’s evolving wealth and benefits market.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio Financial Services Ltd also announced the appointment of Derek Buckley as Chief Commercial Officer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Buckley joins Unio as Chief Commercial Officer with 25 years’ experience in investment banking in Dublin and London. Prior to joining Unio, he worked at Davy where he was Head of Business Development between capital markets and wealth management and previously was a Managing Director at Bernstein in London. Buckley will be responsible for overseeing all commercial activities for the wealth management business, including the management of Unio’s advisory teams and regional offices.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Commenting on his appointment as Chief Commercial Officer of Unio, Derek Buckley said: “I’m delighted to be joining Unio Wealth Management at a key stage in its evolution, there is an historic, inter-generational transfer of wealth under way and a new cohort of earned wealth creating a surge in the need for wealth advice in Ireland. Unio has ambitious growth plans and I look forward to working with the advisory teams in Dublin and regionally to scale the business. The combination of the strength of our parent company Irish Life Group domestically and the wealth leadership position of Great-West Lifeco internationally, positions Unio uniquely to meet the needs of a new and growing market in Ireland that want a refreshing, progressive and differentiated wealth management offering.’&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Commenting on both appointments, Patrick Ryan, Chairperson of Unio’s Board, said: “We are delighted to welcome Richard Jones as our new Chief Executive Officer and Derek Buckley as Chief Commercial Officer to Unio. Richard brings a proven track record of leadership having led major growth and transformation initiatives across the sector. Richard’s strategic vision and deep expertise in financial services will be instrumental as we continue to grow and enhance the value we deliver to our clients. Similarly, Derek’s strong commercial acumen and track-record of success across the Irish and UK markets will further strengthen our position and support the next phase of our expansion.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Declan Bolger, CEO of Irish Life Group, said: “These appointments represent an important step in the continued growth and development of Unio. Richard Jones brings strong leadership and deep industry experience, while Derek Buckley will play a key role in further strengthening the firm’s commercial capabilities and client proposition. As part of the wider Irish Life Group, we remain committed to investing in the talent and leadership that will support our long-term ambitions.”&lt;/p&gt;

Richard Jones appointed CEO of Unio Financial Services

&lt;h1&gt;Why Keeping All of Your Company Equity Might Be A Risky Move&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;David O’Connell, a private client adviser in Unio’s Independent Wealth team, discusses the risks associated with holding a single stock and the importance of diversification. Understanding how equity compensation works is essential, along with seeking professional advice to incorporate your company shares into a broader financial plan. A 4-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Key Considerations for Senior Leaders in Irish Multinationals&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For many senior leaders in Ireland’s multinational and large corporate sectors, equity compensation has become an increasingly common component of their overall remuneration. Whether it’s stock options, or other incentive schemes, they all share one important trait: they tie your personal financial future even closer to your employer’s fortunes. This isn’t an explainer on company shares — plenty of excellent resources already exist - instead, we want to explore a simpler, yet often overlooked question: &quot;Should you actually hold on to your company shares?&quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The €50,000 Question…..&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When a client tells me they’ve received company shares, I ask them a simple question:&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“If your employer handed you a €50,000 bonus in cash, would your first move be to ring a stockbroker and buy your company’s shares?”&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Almost without exception, the answer is no. If that’s the case, why leave it all tied up in stock you didn’t actively choose to buy in the first place?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equity compensation is just another form of bonus — it just happens to be paid in shares. If you wouldn’t voluntarily put a lump sum of your own money into your company’s stock, then it’s worth questioning whether it’s wise to let such a significant portion of your wealth remain there, just because it was given to you that way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The Hidden Concentration Risk&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We often talk about diversification in investment portfolios, but it’s surprising how little this is applied when it comes to equity compensation. Holding one stock — especially your employer’s — creates a serious concentration risk.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Let’s look at some of Ireland’s major multinational employers offering stock options: Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Airbnb. They are all market leaders, yet even Apple has seen its stock fall 17% since the start of the year. No company, no matter how big, is immune to volatility.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We’ve started looking at the difference in volatility between holding single-company stock versus a diversified medium-risk investment fund. Early data points to a clear takeaway — diversification matters.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Layering Risk on Risk&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There’s also a broader issue at play. If your salary, bonus, career prospects, and equity compensation are all tied to one company, then your entire financial wellbeing is anchored to a single source. Lose your job, and not only is your income gone — you could also lose your unvested equity compensation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is a key point that’s often missed. Unvested stock options may be viewed as ‘future upside’, but they are also a potential loss if your employment is terminated before vesting. You’re not just investing in the company — you’re investing in the hope you’ll remain employed long enough to realise that value.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;It’s Complicated, Get the Right Advice&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The mechanics of equity compensation schemes vary widely, and the tax implications can be complex. Whether it’s the timing of vesting, the implications of capital gains, or the need to declare income correctly, tax advice is essential. Many people don’t even know what type of scheme they’re in — and that’s a red flag in itself.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It’s always best to work with both a wealth adviser and a tax professional who can look at the bigger picture — not just your investment exposure, but how your equity compensation fits into your broader financial plan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Final Thoughts&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equity compensation is a great benefit but it's also a risk if misunderstood or left unmanaged. If you wouldn’t actively choose to invest heavily in your employer’s stock, it might be time to consider a strategy that better aligns with your long-term financial goals. At Unio Wealth Management, we help senior leaders make sense of the complexity focusing on smart diversification, financial planning, and protecting what they’ve worked hard to earn.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Book Your Complimentary Wealth Check&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Spend 30 minutes with an expert adviser and turn clarity into action. No complexity, just a simple conversation about you, your wealth and how to grow it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Book your complimentary Wealth Check today&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;David O’Connell is a private client adviser in our Independent Wealth team.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Why Keeping All of Your Company Equity Might Be A Risky Move

&lt;h1&gt;When it comes to your finances, it's really all about achieving peace of mind.&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Conor Murray CFP®, Head of Unio's Corporate and Company Executives team, writes about why financial planning reduces stress and builds peace of mind, and how a trusted adviser relationship turns clarity into action. Read the full article to see how a focused plan can help you make confident choices for your future. A 5 minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In today’s hectic world there is an ever-growing list of stressors that weigh on our minds. When asked to identify sources of stress, money emerges as a recurring theme. As a personal financial adviser, I often find myself acting as a coach and mentor, helping clients make informed decisions and keeping them on the path to financial wellbeing.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Why money is one of life’s biggest sources of stress&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Renowned satirist Jonathan Swift once famously said, “A wise person should have money in their head, but not in their heart.” By effectively managing our money, we gain control over our finances, creating opportunities for personal and professional growth, and helping us attain that all important peace of mind.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The adviser relationship: turning clarity into confident action&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Working with the right adviser can help coordinate all aspects of your financial life so you can focus on what is most important to you and making the right choices in life for you and your family. It is an ongoing relationship built on trust and, when done correctly, your adviser will become an integral part of your life, your counsel for financial and more importantly life decisions. You can take comfort knowing that they will have the time, attention, and expertise to address every aspect of your finances while you focus on living.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Finding peace of mind through financial planning&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A recent study by the Financial Planning Standards Board (FPSB) (1) revealed that clients who work with a Certified Financial Planner experience a significantly higher quality of life. These clients report increased confidence and satisfaction regarding their financial situations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Furthermore, the study identified “reducing financial worries and stress” as one of the top three benefits that financial planners provide to their clients. This is especially significant in Ireland, which has a rich tapestry of culture, values, and behaviours that shape how we approach wealth and financial management.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What Keeps You up at Night?&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Clients often remark that they appreciate the clarity and focus they get from a financial planning meeting. By looking at the bigger picture, we move the conversation away from the spread sheet and facilitate those deeper conversations about a client’s concerns and aspirations. What’s on your mind? What do you want to achieve in life and how can we help you get there?&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Turning your goals into a clear financial roadmap&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Typically, your financial plan should establish important long term personal financial goals and shorter-term objectives. A long-term goal might be starting to save for your child’s future or achieving a particular income level in retirement. A typical shorter-term objective may be to reduce debt or increase pension savings. Your plan sets out your goals and describes a clear ‘route map’ of what you need to do to achieve them. Using financial modelling software, we build a picture of what your financial future might look like and work through accumulation strategies or simply give you the peace of mind that you are on track.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Protecting your family, your future and your legacy&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Additionally, your financial plan might include other practical steps such as ensuring you have an up-to date will in place or an enduring power of attorney.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your financial legacy and efficiently passing on wealth might also be an important consideration and ensuring that you have the right structures in place to do so tax efficiently may be a priority for you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The behavioural side of managing wealth&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many individuals carry beliefs about money that can hinder their financial success. For some clients, cultural attitudes towards wealth may instil feelings of guilt or fear of judgment. Partnering with our clients and coaching them on these limiting beliefs, enables them to adopt a more empowering mindset towards wealth accumulation and management.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, in Ireland there is a cultural reticence for people to invest beyond traditional bank deposits and that can hold us back as a country. This can often result in missed opportunities for growth, leading to financial uncertainty in the long run.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In contrast, a cohesive financial plan including an investment plan tailored to your goals can offer potential for higher returns, helping you build wealth more effectively. Knowing that your finances are actively working towards your future can reduce financial stress, contributing to greater peace of mind.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio advisers are also here to help clients navigate the stress and anxiety that sometimes accompanies financial decisions. Understanding what drives emotional reactions can lead to more rational and well-thought-out investment choices.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The benefits of working with a trusted financial adviser&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1. Improved Financial Wellbeing and Peace of Mind: Knowing your finances are in order allows you to sleep soundly, free from the anxieties of unexpected financial troubles.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2. Simplified Financial Matters: Your financial adviser will help demystify complex financial concepts, making it easier for clients to understand and manage their finances.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;3. Enhanced Confidence in Financial Decisions: With expert guidance, clients can make informed decisions, reducing the stress and uncertainty often associated with managing money.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;4. Increased Financial Freedom and Control: Effective financial planning provides clients with a sense of control over their financial future, leading to a more empowered and relaxed lifestyle.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;5. Goal Setting and Achievement: Your financial adviser can help you establish and reach your personal and financial goals, contributing to overall life satisfaction and happiness.&nbsp;[1]&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;In Summary&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How does financial planning reduce stress?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;By bringing clarity to your finances, helping you understand your options and providing a clear plan forward.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Why is peace of mind important in financial planning?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When you feel confident and informed, you’re better able to make calm, long‑term decisions that align with your goals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Is financial planning just about money?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;No , it’s about supporting life decisions, protecting family interests and helping people feel in control of their future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Book Your Complimentary Wealth Check&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Spend 30 minutes with an expert adviser and turn clarity into action. No complexity, just a simple conversation about you, your wealth and how to grow it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Book your complimentary Wealth Check today&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Conor is Head off Corporate and Company Executives at Unio, where he has worked since 2016. He has extensive experience advising clients in the Corporate and Multinational sectors. Conor holds the Certified Financial Planner designation (CFP®), QFA, RPA and SIA qualifications.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[1] FPSB Value Of Financial Planning Global Consumer Research 2023&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Achieving Financial Peace of Mind

&lt;h1&gt;League of Nations II: Markets, Power and the Shifting World Order&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One implication of the recent surge in the price of semiconductor firms is that the stock markets of Taiwan and South Korea are now larger than that of the UK (which in 1900 made up 25% of the world stock market capitalization). It is expected that the two East Asian countries will soon have more billionaires than Britain, many of whom have apparently been scattered to the winds by the Labour government.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Though a country’s stock market is a highly imperfect indicator of a country’s economic standing, it does offer good clues as to evolving industrial structure. Bond yield and currencies help to complete the picture, and the runaway UK 10-year Gilt yield (now above 5%) doesn’t tell a happy story either. Then, on GDP, the country whose rise impresses me is Poland, which has not suffered a recession in the past thirty years (COVID excepted). Its GDP has increased sevenfold since 1990, and by 2030 it is expected to surpass the UK in terms of GDP (based on purchasing power parity). Remarkably, Poland is also shaping up to be a geopolitical power as well.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The loosening of the globalized world order, and the advent of many new risks and challenges – from the impact of AI on economies, to climate damage to war – has the potential to knock some nations back, and present opportunities to others.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, we can expect that the rise and fall of stock markets and economies tells us a lot about the rise and fall of nation states. In a world where the established world order is shattered (OPEC is the latest long running institution to fall apart), the rise and fall of countries is accelerating, and has become more vivid. In 2020, in the context of how different countries and states were responding to the COVID crisis, we wrote of the idea of the ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2020/04/11/league-of-nations/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!m-zRSI3OykECgxHR_8P-NtYPf6Jis_Sy3LsPh1miwvJzxH4vIFfHd3YqLaROwx7T0R2zzkHY4aNpauq0JYaiZCYf$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;League of Nations’&lt;/a&gt;, and have emphasized the theme ever since.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are many existing league tables of country performance – happiest nation, most innovative country and most competitive, to name a few. Those league tables tend to be dominated by small, advanced economies. Regular readers will know that one of my favourite long run economic themes is the success of the small, advanced economy model, notably so for the way in which these nations can adapt to changes in the broader world. The UAE is a case in point.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In previous notes I have also made the parallel between football and politics, and this is still valid. A few weeks ago, I mentioned that in the last ten years the UK has had more ministers for housing (a whopping 14) than Chelsea FC have had managers (12). Chelsea has recently parted with their latest manager Liam Rosenior, and it might well be that a cabinet reshuffle or change of prime minister leads to Matthew Pennycook moving on from his job as UK housing minister.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Like football, the manager of a country is important. For decades, Singapore and the Emirati states have made a virtue of strong, visionary leadership, Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis and more recently Mark Carney in Canada are associated with turning their nations away from troubled waters.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In today’s League of Nations, the winning formula is changing, and shifting towards all things ‘sovereign’ and ‘atom-like’. For example, last week Canada announced the creation of a sovereign wealth fund to help the buildout of critical infrastructure, and it also laid claim to be the host of the new multilateral defence bank (Chris Collins and I wrote about this in a recent note for&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.barrons.com/articles/europe-needs-to-get-serious-about-its-defense-a-new-bank-is-the-answer-996b96e4?refsec=commentary&amp;mod=topics_commentary__;!!O22_8FOSssc!m-zRSI3OykECgxHR_8P-NtYPf6Jis_Sy3LsPh1miwvJzxH4vIFfHd3YqLaROwx7T0R2zzkHY4aNpauq0JVTQZ38U$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Barrons&lt;/a&gt;). Further, as I mentioned last week’s note (‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/mystified-ai-cyber-risk-sovereign-ai&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Mystified&lt;/a&gt;’), successful countries will need to cultivate their own AI stack, and the merger of Cohere and Aleph Alpha is a sign of things to come (their main shareholder is German but the firm will effectively be Canadian from now).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then, with a step change in the industrial structure of the developed economies of the world underway, from services and ‘bits’ (software, crypto) to ‘atoms’ (energy, infrastructure, defence, AI and quantum), those countries with the universities, capital base and innovation ecosystems, will thrive. America is the standout example, but the Nordic countries and the economic zones that surround the Alps (particularly Switzerland) are good examples.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One consideration regarding the stature of nations is age and pedigree. One of the elements that makes small, advanced countries successful is that their laws, democracies and institutions have been in place for some time, and therefore offer clarity and consistency to businesses for example. At the same time, as economies get older they can become sclerotic, acquire layers of regulation and fail to engage in the creative destruction necessary to keep economic growth at healthy levels. Whilst this is simply an observation, I have a hunch that like aging athletes, older, large economies (US, Japan, UK, France) resort to a ‘boost’ in order to keep their economies going, which may explain why they are excessively indebted.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A final word in praise of older economies and societies, which relates to the cultures, behaviours and ‘family silver’ they accumulate over time. King Charles III’s various speeches in Washington last week demonstrated the value of heritage, and he might just have saved Britain from relegation to the lower leagues.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

League of Nations II

&lt;h1&gt;Iran War Oil Shock: Is Inflation Transitory or Here to Stay?&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Oil prices are lifting inflation again. This month's Unio Global Macro Council (GMC) assessed central bank options, Europe’s uneven exposure, and the key tail risk: a prolonged Hormuz blockage triggering a sharper macro shock.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Oil shock: inflation hits fast&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The recent fuel protest across Ireland demonstrates how far away events can impact our daily lives, and how sensitive households are to rising inflation and the more onerous cost of living. In that regard, this month’s Global Macro Council focused on a critical variable for the economy, and markets, the outlook for inflation in the context of the Iran War.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a strict economic sense, the rise in the price of oil and fuel related commodities, will push up inflation (depending on the weighting of energy in inflation baskets). However, the medium to long-term consequence of this is unclear. Higher fuel prices may well trigger a negative demand shock, and lower risk appetite, or they may lead to rising expectations of higher prices in the future (inflation). For instance, economists at Goldman Sachs, who contributed to the GMC, estimate that a&nbsp;sustained&nbsp;10% rise in the price of oil adds 0.30%&nbsp;to euro-zone inflation, whilst at the same time knocking 0.20% off the Gross Domestic Product (GMC). The debate amongst central bankers reflects this.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Central banks: hike or hold?&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), amongst the major central banks, were caught out by the sharp rise in inflation that arose after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with many central bank chiefs initially describing it as ‘transitory’. This time, central bankers are more wary, with Christine Lagarde the ECB chief warning that the bank might have to raise rates in order to stave off inflation. Our sense is that, quite obviously, rate hikes will not resolve the Iran War, and they risk aggravating any demand shock that emerges from this energy crisis.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Rather, Lagarde’s comments were a shot across the bows of consumers and corporates that any medium-term rise in inflation expectations would be fought against by the central bank.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Europe: winners, losers, rewires&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One particularity in the EU is that different European countries have very disparate energy grids and will be impacted in varying ways, though it is worth mentioning that the spike in gas prices is nothing like that of 2022. France has a very efficient grid and the benefit of a large nuclear sector, while Spain generates a lot of energy from renewables. They are relatively less impacted whereas Germany and Italy, more exposed to fossil fuels, will face a steeper rise in energy costs. Additionally, Ireland and the UK, because of their energy mix and grid quality, are two of the European countries where electricity prices are highest. As a result, we expect a wholesale overhaul of energy and electricity systems across Europe.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Like Ireland, countries across the world are impacted by the energy shock, which is also triggering a food and soft commodity shock across Africa (through fertilizer prices), which may later impact prices across the rest of the world. For the moment, in most cases, governments are responding by lowering energy taxes and fuel caps, in addition to strategies to limit demand, as fuel stockpiles start to run low.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Knock-on effects: food, taxes, and AI&nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are of course other drivers of inflation – housing (or ‘shelter’) has a significant impact on headline inflation in the US, and a soft labour market in Europe can dampen the impetus of inflation.&nbsp;An additional complication, for both central bankers and investors, is the effect of AI, both on energy systems and in terms of its longer-term effect on wages and service prices.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From this point onwards, the likelihood of some form of resolution around the blockage of the Straits of Hormuz, is the main case scenario of most investors and one that would help dampen the energy price shock, though some form of ‘premium’ is likely till at least the end of the year.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A much lower probability event, but one we need to consider in the event of a geopolitically charged world, is a prolonged blockage of the Strait, which produces a further leg up in oil prices, and thus a more troubling macro shock. This might be exacerbated if the White House decides to export less oil overseas in order to dampen local energy prices. That is a scenario we want to avoid.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Download this month's GMC Outlook:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Unio-GMC-_April-2026-_-Inflation-Transitory-or-Here-to-Stay.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;Inflation - Transitory or Here to Stay?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Inflation - Transitory or Here to Stay?

&lt;h1&gt;Mystified: AI, Cyber Risk and Why Markets Can’t Agree&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the characteristics of a chaotic world order, that is on one hand bedazzled by a new technology and on the other, deeply troubled by multiple wars and economic stress, is the disagreement of different markets about the state of the world. For example, the US stock market has recently hit new highs, but at the same time, many parts of the commodity complex portend an energy crisis (in Asia and Europe mostly) and a food crisis (in Asia and Africa).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Often these disagreements occur when sets of investors are laser focused on very specific asset classes, and perhaps do not talk to each other as much as they should. For a long time, this was a perennial problem between the equity and credit departments of investment banks. In periods of stress, credit analysts often had a much more negative view on individual companies than their equity analyst counterparts. I recall that during market crises (&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/dot.com__;!!O22_8FOSssc!l8wbs6iNlRj4FLOZO-j2wyUJ4VxugcORrrTHwMPFgafnhj4kcGB4wnEiOJHMlpdnZC0KnpoB3rkoIug3gd5z8iJz$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;dot.com&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;and global financial crisis), some banks brought credit and equity analysts together, so that the balance sheet and profit and loss statement could speak to each other, as it were.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This initiative came to mind last week when I read that in one part of the impressive, new JPMorgan headquarters in Manhattan market strategists were busy upgrading the bank’s 2026&nbsp;forecast for the S&amp;P 500 index to 7600 while very likely in another part of the JPMorgan building, lawyers, bankers, chief technology officers are scrambling to figure out the implications of Anthropic’s latest model Mythos for the banking system. Many of you will have read that upon the launch of the model, the Treasury Secretary summoned executives from the largest American banks to ponder how Mythos, if used the wrong way, could collapse the financial system.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mythos is impressive, but also very scary to put it simply. In tests it has easily outperformed other Anthropic models and outperformed to the very upper limit of cybersecurity related tests, detecting thousands of cyber vulnerabilities in software it tested. The problem is that the unconstrained Mythos can do the exact opposite, exploit bugs in software, and execute deadly attacks on IT systems.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Because of this Anthropic has limited the release of Mythos to twelve companies (‘Project Glasswing’), and the aim of this initiative is to find and repair deficiencies in software. The risk of course is that other platforms or states manage to develop models as powerful as Mythos (some Chinese models are said to be only seven months behind) and apply these to nefarious ends. Indeed, there are reports that three major Chinese AI firms have set up 24,000 accounts on Claude in order to try to hijack its capabilities.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The fact that the Treasury, and other bodies like the Bank of England, are scurrying to determine Mythos’ threat to financial systems is of great concern, and the advance of this model is now a national security issue across most developed nations. The risk of a large, near-autonomous attack on software infrastructure, financial systems and public institutions is now very real, and makes Robert Harris’ 2011 book ‘The Fear Index’ highly prescient (it’s one for the beach this summer).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The advent of Mythos also strikes a chord with a chart in a recent research paper from the Dallas Federal Reserve that illustrates&nbsp;the potential for AI to affect long-term economic growth. Economists normally deploy three types of forecasts – a baseline that tracks historic growth rates, an optimistic version a little above it, and a corresponding pessimistic one. In this paper, however, the optimistic scenario goes vertically upwards and the pessimistic one goes vertically downwards, capturing the potential of AI either to revolutionise the economy or to destroy humanity. In a later chapter I explore the economic and financial effects of AI in more depth, and how it may trigger or exacerbate a debt crisis.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;More importantly, it brings into focus the idea of sovereign AI, the idea that governments control and need to control AI models and their data, energy and funding supply chains. Anthropic’s recent popularity is partly based on its independence from the US administration, but it is nonetheless in the American camp. China is catching up fast (DeepSeek is taking on new investors) but, apart from Mistral, Europe is lagging.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are several things’ governments can and must do, and I am thinking of democracies like the UK, Japan, Canada and the EU. The first is state capitalism (a f&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/davidskilling.substack.com/p/from-the-market-state-to-state-capitalism__;!!O22_8FOSssc!l8wbs6iNlRj4FLOZO-j2wyUJ4VxugcORrrTHwMPFgafnhj4kcGB4wnEiOJHMlpdnZC0KnpoB3rkoIug3gcBZSA81$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;ull description of which&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;is outlined in a recent note from David Skilling), and this can involve sovereign wealth funds taking bigger stakes in AI model builders, the build out and reform of energy systems, and the further concentration of poles of AI excellence. Europe has been too slow here so far, and in my experience confuses the initiative towards state capitalism with a disinterest in incentivising private investment.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A further initiative will be the enhancement of national cyber security institutes in the context of greater collaboration between aligned nations and a rethinking of how critical infrastructure works, is powered and where its multiple vulnerabilities lie.&nbsp;The terrifying risk is that AI is developing so quickly that a small group of malicious individuals, aided by a small army of cyber agents, could disable a small country like Belgium.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When ChatGPT came to light in 2023, the key figures in the industry issued two letters (‘The Pause Letter’ in March 2023, and ‘The Extinction Letter’ in May 2023) that warned of the capabilities of AI and of its potential misuse. The letters were greeted with some scepticism, and in the giddy rush of AI stocks were quickly forgotten. It turns out that the founders may have been on to something.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Mystified

&lt;h1&gt;Power, image and the politics behind France’s 2027 presidential race.&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A few years ago, I was walking through the Gare de Lyon in Paris when I was brought to a halt by the sight of an elegant woman strolling through the concourse. She was followed by a black Labrador, a porter, and then a smaller gentleman trundling behind. The lady in question was actress Julie Gayet, wife of Francois Hollande, the former President of France (the gentleman). One of Hollande’s most famous acts as President was to sneak out of the Elysee on a scooter for what the British tabloid press might call ‘trysts’ with Julie.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A distinguishing factor of French politics compared to Anglophone countries like the UK, Australia and Ireland (it used also be the case in the US) is that a politician’s private life is private, and not for public consumption.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In keeping with this spirit, in 1899, President Félix Faure allegedly died in the arms of his mistress. More recently, presidents like Giscard and Jacques Chirac married well, but had plenty of ‘adventures’. Indeed, the film about Bernadette Chirac ‘Bernadette’, starring Catherine Deneuve is quite good in this regard. Speaking of which, another film to recommend is ‘La Conquete’, the story of the disintegration of Nicolas Sarkozy’s first marriage whilst he rose to power. Sarkozy has done more than most to banalise French politics, but his relationship with Carla Bruni has also introduced a popular sense of glamour into public life.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My reflections on the love lives of French presidents are motivated by two things. Francois Hollande has this week declared himself ‘ready’ to enter the battle for the 2027 presidency. With much attention on the right, there is space on the left of French politics for a serious candidate, and Hollande sees an opportunity, though he may well be beaten to it by Dominique de Villepin (famous foreign minister and then prime minister under Chirac who led France’s policy on the 2003 war – there is a good film on this ‘Quai d’Orsay, starring Julie Gayet).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The other event was the ‘coming out’ of Jordan Bardella and Maria Carolina de Bourbon des Deux-Siciles as a public couple, thanks to Paris-Match. In the likely event that Marine Le Pen cannot contest the 2027 presidency, Bardella will be the Rassemblement’s candidate, and according to polls the frontrunner in the contest.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If elected, he will have little in common with previous presidents, apart from the fact that he is male. He is different in a few respects.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is that he is a manufactured candidate, in the sense that from a very early age he has been groomed and cultivated by the Le Pen clan, provided with speaking coaches and marketing strategists. To that end, many suspect that the ParisMatch report is just another marketing stunt to burnish his profile, it appears too sterile and planned, and there is nothing worse than a French politician who is not genuinely passionate.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second more serious accusation is that Bardella has done little of consequence in his professional life and is effectively untested as a leader and driver of policy. In this regard, he has more in common with other young politicians across Europe, whose only claim to credibility is their addiction to TikTok posts. To date many of his public appearances are carefully choreographed, but in the long run into an electoral campaign, Bardella will have to think and speak on his feet, which may be his key weakness.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A related, and underestimated criticism is that Bardella has not demonstrated his intellect, and has not passed through France’s Grandes Écoles – as have the likes of Hollande, Edouard Philippe, Macron and Chirac, who apparently topped his class. This rite of passage is important in the context of the way the French state operates – it is a pyramidical elite, made up of generally very capable people, who act and think alike. In order to make this system work, the person at the top needs to think like, and have the intellectual respect of those below.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Under that scenario, a young, inexperienced Bardella, without the crutch of an experienced policy team, would struggle, and it is becoming clear that the French establishment is girding itself for a Bardella presidency by placing centrist type policymakers in key institutional posts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is a scenario where, if he was victorious, the establishment might hand him two poisoned chalices, a crisis over immigration and potentially, a financial crisis. France is in my view the most financially vulnerable country in Europe, given the state of its finances and the fact that parliament has done nothing to resolve this. In that regard, a Bardella presidency could trigger financial chaos in France, that might eventually force reform of pensions and social security (Bardella would be a lame duck by then).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thus, Bardella does not fit the profile of the typical French president, and as the presidential contest gathers steam his limitations may become more obvious. According to polls, the one centrist politician who can come close to beating him is Édouard Philippe, former prime minister and author of the excellent ‘Dans L’Ombre’. If anything, he needs to learn from this work of political fiction and go a little 'MAGA'.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

La Conquête

&lt;h1&gt;Unio Wealth Management Recognised at the WealthBriefing European Awards 2026&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCM2MTXUSFFJAAHIZXOJ3XX5BAXY?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Ger Fitzgerald, Áine McGroarty, Keith Farrell,  Derek Buckley, Kate Candon and Mike O'Sullivan, Unio Wealth Management at the WealthBriefing European Awards 2026.&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YS700000pWZ7Q&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCM2MTXUSFFJAAHIZXOJ3XX5BAXY&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Awards 1.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pictured L-R: Ger Fitzgerald, Áine McGroarty; Keith Farrell; Derek Buckley; Kate Candon; and, Mike O'Sullivan Unio Wealth Management at the WealthBriefing European Awards 2026 which took place on March 19th, 2026 at the London Marriott.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio Wealth Management is delighted to&nbsp;have won&nbsp;“Most Innovative Wealth Management Model” at the WealthBriefing European Awards 2026.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Winning this award is a strong endorsement of&nbsp;Unio’s&nbsp;purpose,&nbsp;values&nbsp;and the progressive way we serve clients. It&nbsp;recognises&nbsp;the collective effort across the business and reflects our people's commitment to delivering high‑quality, client‑centred&nbsp;advice, underpinned by innovation and continuous improvement.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This recognition&nbsp;reinforces pride in our culture and&nbsp;values&nbsp;and&nbsp;motivates our teams to continue raising the bar.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The annual award ceremony celebrates excellence across the European Wealth Management industry, and we are proud to be&nbsp;recognised on the international stage.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://clearviewpublishing.com/events/the-fourteenth-wealthbriefing-european-awards-2026/?tab=finalists-top&amp;subtab=winners&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;See here for a full list of winners.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MC22X4R5BBHJFQZOXPB4KXBNVSEQ?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YS700000pesMB&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MC22X4R5BBHJFQZOXPB4KXBNVSEQ&quot; alt=&quot;WealthBriefing European Awards 2026 Unio award logo for innovative wealth management model&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Unio Wins Most Innovative Model at 2026 Awards_SEO.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Unio Win WealthBriefing European Award

&lt;h1&gt;Unio Wealth Management’s “Building Wealth Report” reveals Ireland is Wealthy but We Don’t Feel it&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;➡️ &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/The-Unio-Wealth-Management-Building-Wealth-Report-3.4MB.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Unio Building Wealth Report July 2025&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Watch as Mike O'Sullivan, report author and Chief Investment Officer, Unio discusses the report's key findings.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/-HdN0m1C77U?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;· Ireland is now one of the EU’s wealthiest nations&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;· Irish households are 30% richer than the UK&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;· Yet only 10% of Irish people consider themselves ‘quite wealthy’&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Irish people do not feel wealthy despite the fact Ireland is now one of the wealthiest countries in Europe, according to the Building Wealth Report by Unio Wealth Management.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Unio Building Wealth Report shows that average net wealth per adult in Ireland is now higher than the height of the Celtic Tiger (€300k) at €323k, marking a significant recovery from the €140k average recorded in 2013. The report defines wealth as the total value of financial assets and property, minus any outstanding debt.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In 2013, the UK had nearly one-third more average wealth per adult than Ireland. Now, the situation has reversed, with Irish adults on average 30% wealthier than their UK counterparts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;According to a Red C sentiment survey commissioned by Unio Wealth Management as part of its Building Wealth Report, only 10% of Irish people consider themselves ‘quite wealthy’. Just 40% of Irish people feel wealthier than they were ten years ago, with younger people and those in higher income brackets most likely to express this sentiment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The research shows that Irish people are divided on the concept of wealth, with an equal number of respondents feeling comfortable with the term as those who feel uncomfortable. Interestingly, 40% approx. of respondents in the 18-34 cohort expressed comfort with the notion of wealth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland’s total net household wealth has risen to €1.27trn, an increase from the €500bn recorded during the same period in 2013. This represents annual growth of 7.6%, surpassing major European counterparts France, Germany and the UK, and second only to Luxembourg.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;31% of wealth in Ireland is made up of financial assets which is broadly in line with other EU countries, this compares to 53% in Switzerland. As Ireland’s culture of investing in financial assets continues to grow, this figure is expected to rise. The exponential growth of the tech sector, particularly in Dublin, has seen Ireland become a major European hub, further contributing to increased wealth in the country.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Commenting on the findings, the report author Mike O’Sullivan, Director and Chief Investment Officer of Unio said: “Our aim is to contribute to a well-informed conversation around wealth in Ireland and people’s attitudes to the notion of wealth. While Ireland is now very well positioned compared to other European countries, Switzerland and the US lead in terms of average wealth per adult at €720k and €574k respectively, what these countries have in common is a mature culture of wealth planning and investing. Ireland could climb higher in the global wealth rankings through greater uptake of advice and investing in financial assets.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Irish people across all income brackets are broadly aligned in associating wealth with financial security and ‘peace of mind’. There is an increased desire for the provision of financial advice as 40% of those Irish people who consider themselves in a position of wealth wish to avail of such services.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;Ireland became wealthy relatively quickly, high earners are often the most under-advised because their lives are so busy and there is a cultural reluctance to talk about wealth in Ireland”, says Ian Brady, CEO of Unio Wealth Management. “Countries like Switzerland and the US have a mature, advice-led culture of wealth planning, which feels more personal. With more people accumulating wealth at a younger age, we see a need for advice-led wealth planning in Ireland. At Unio, many of our clients are in a stronger financial position than they realise, and with the right advice we can help them achieve their full financial potential. Our goal is to help clients become active wealth builders rather than passive wealth holders.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio’s Mike O’Sullivan said: “To many people, Ireland is a rich country, but we just don’t feel it on account of difficulties with housing, childcare and infrastructure rollouts in comparison with our European counterparts. It is worth noting that much of Ireland’s wealth is ‘new wealth’ and there are fewer multi-generational businesses compared to other EU countries, which suggests Irish people are still coming to terms with the notion of wealth. For instance, although Irish adults are 30% richer than their UK counterparts, the UK has a far greater level of multi-generational wealth than Ireland, although that is now changing. Overall, the report paints a picture of a stressed middle class. Irish households are statistically much wealthier compared to other European nations but there isn’t a broad sense of wealth amongst the population, which can likely be attributed to inflation and a high cost of living along with people associating their incomes as a sole measure of wealth.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wealth isn’t just about having money, it’s about clarity, control, and having the right guidance around you. Whether you are navigating success or planning your next step, now is the time to take control and unlock the potential of the wealth you have worked so hard to earn.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Time for a Savings Reality Check?&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Discover the cost of doing nothing with your wealth with&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Unio’s Savings Reality Check.&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;Then take the next step with a no‑obligation&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Wealth Check&lt;/a&gt;. A Unio adviser will help you understand your options, answer your questions in a simple 30 minute call about you, your wealth and how to grow it.&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Book your Wealth check today!&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Unio Building Wealth Report

&lt;p&gt;Wendy McKeown, Head of Financial Planning at Unio Wealth Management explains the time value of money and shares how it can guide you toward smarter financial decisions.&nbsp;Whether you are just starting to invest or planning for retirement, using time wisely can significantly enhance our financial returns and help secure a stable future. A 5-mins read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The time value of money is a simple idea with a big impact: money you have today is worth more than the same amount in the future. Why? Because today’s money can be invested, earn a return, and grow over time. Understanding this concept helps you make better choices about saving, investing, and borrowing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;TIME + MONEY = MORE MONEY!&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ever since I first watched ‘Back to the Future’ and tried to wrap my head around the idea of the ‘space-time continuum’, the importance of time as a concept has continued to fascinate me.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That movie introduced me to the idea that decisions we make now impact our future path, something I talk about daily as a Financial Planner.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Time is one of the most valuable assets that we have in life – it's something we can’t get back once it’s gone, we can’t save it or earn more of it.&nbsp;But how can we use time to our advantage when managing our finances?&nbsp;Simple – by understanding the impact of time better.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Here are three key financial planning concepts that explain the relationship between time and money.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;1-The Power of Compounding&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As Albert Einstein once said, “compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it”.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Compounding is the process of generating returns on both your original investment and through re-investment of returns you have previously received.&nbsp;It’s simple; interest on your interest means more returns on your investment returns.&nbsp;The longer your money is invested, the more it grows showing clearly how time can significantly boost your wealth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Below is an example that shows the power of compounding—and why starting early makes all the difference.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCCRSRIPTHA5GFVA57GDTM6PO6NQ?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Compounding savings table showing Mary starts at 25 with €200/month vs John at 35 with €400/month, both at 6% return.&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fzza&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCCRSRIPTHA5GFVA57GDTM6PO6NQ&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Time Value of Money table .jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;John and Mary both plan to retire at 65, but they started saving at different times. Mary began at 25, while John waited until 35. Both use the same investment strategy, earning 6% annually. Mary contributes €200 per month; John, starting later, contributes €400 per month.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The chart shows their investment growth from age 25 to 65. Mary’s savings (orange line) grow quickly at first thanks to an early start. John’s savings grow more slowly initially, but by around age 60, compounding helps him catch up. By retirement, both have just over €400,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Here’s the key takeaway: Mary reached the same goal with lower contributions simply by starting earlier. She let time work its magic—compounding rewards patience.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Time is money. Start early, invest consistently, and let your money grow.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCFS7FBOQECNHOVEP5R5HBGPPEEU?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;This chart shows the growth of John’s and Mary’s investments or savings over time from age 25 to 65.&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fzxo&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCFS7FBOQECNHOVEP5R5HBGPPEEU&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Picture1.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;*This&nbsp;chart&nbsp;is based on level non-escalating contributions for the duration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCGPRZJS3OX5BONO4TX2OSZJCSDY?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;warning statement&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000g0Ux&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCGPRZJS3OX5BONO4TX2OSZJCSDY&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Warning These figures are estimates only.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2-The Time Value of Money&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 'Time value of money' refers to the idea that money available today is worth more than the same amount tomorrow.&nbsp;Would you rather be gifted €1,000 today or €1,000 in 5-years’ time?&nbsp;Most individuals would opt for today, as, like the example above, money available now can be invested to generate returns.&nbsp;&nbsp;With 6% p.a. growth, you could grow €1,000 received today to €1,338 in 5 years’ time.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, money is also impacted by inflation which will reduce the future value of the same amount of money. The purchasing power of €1,000 in 5 years’ time will be different to that of the same amount today. For example, using an inflation rate of 2%, something that cost €1,000 today will cost €1,104 in 5 years’ time. This often leads to the suggestion that your investment strategy should ‘inflation protect’ your assets at the very minimum, targeting an investment return equal to or greater than the prevailing rate of inflation, thus maintaining the spending power of your capital&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;3-Lifecycle Investing&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Lifecycle investing refers to adjusting your investment strategy based on your age, financial goals, and risk tolerance over time. Early in your career, you might take more risks for higher returns, while closer to retirement, you shift toward safer investments. This concept shows how time influences not just the growth of money but how you manage it at different stages of life.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In conclusion, understanding the relationship between time and money is essential for effective financial planning. Concepts like compound interest, the time value of money, and lifecycle investing show us that the earlier we start, and the more intentionally we adapt our strategies over time, the greater our potential for financial success. Whether it's Mary starting to save a decade before John, or adjusting our investments as we move through life, using time wisely can mean the difference between financial stress and long-term security. The key is to start early, stay consistent, and adapt as your goals and circumstances evolve.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wendy McKeown CFP® is head of Unio Wealth Management’s Financial Planning team and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Talk to us&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With the right financial guidance, you can focus on moments that matter, make confident decisions, and secure your future. Understanding the time value of money isn’t just smart, it’s empowering.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Discover the cost of doing nothing with your wealth with&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Unio’s Savings Reality Check.&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;Then take the next step with a no‑obligation&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Wealth Check&lt;/a&gt;. A Unio adviser will help you understand your options, answer your questions in a simple 30 minute call about you, your wealth and how to grow it.&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Book your Wealth check today!&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Time Value of Money

&lt;p&gt;Many Irish savers feel comfortable holding large amounts of cash in low interest accounts. It feels safe, familiar, and always within reach. Richard White, Head of Unio's Institutional Business team, explains why in today’s environment, leaving your money sitting idle may be quietly eroding its value, and what you should consider instead. A 4-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Cash That Isn’t Keeping Up&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When interest rates on deposit accounts sit close to zero, the real value of your savings begins to erode. Inflation in Ireland reached 3.2% in November 2025¹, and everyday essentials reflect the same trend with grocery price inflation climbing to 6.3%². As prices rise, the purchasing power of your money falls. Even if the number in your bank account doesn’t change, what it can buy steadily diminishes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Irish Savers Are Missing Out&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Irish households are estimated to hold €167.1 billion in deposits³, and more than 90% of this sits in overnight or current accounts&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;earning some of the lowest interest rates in Europe⁴.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This creates a substantial gap between what savers &lt;em&gt;could&lt;/em&gt; be earning and what they &lt;em&gt;are&lt;/em&gt; earning. In fact, estimates suggest that Irish savers may be missing out on as much as €3 billion in potential interest every year⁵.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, households are saving more than ever, with almost €1 of every €7 now being put aside⁶. Yet because so much of that money remains in ultra‑low‑interest accounts, people are paradoxically saving more while earning less.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Why Cash Isn’t Always the Safe Option&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Holding some cash makes perfect sense for short-term needs or emergencies. But beyond that, inflation quietly erodes your purchasing power. Even with inflation now around 2–3%, a saver earning 1% interest still experiences a negative real return. The result: your cash looks safe yet loses value year after year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The truth is that most of us have done exactly what we were told to do: save carefully, avoid big risks, and keep money in cash. Yet when prices rise faster than savings rates, even careful savers are quietly losing spending power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This isn’t bad decision-making; it’s a change in how the system works. Cash feels safe because the number doesn’t go down, but over time it buys less. For wealthier households, the bigger danger isn’t market ups and downs but letting money slowly lose its value by standing still.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Smarter Options&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The good news? Savers don’t have to choose between low returns and locking money away long-term. Today, there are low risk, accessible alternatives that offer better value without sacrificing liquidity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Money market funds and short dated bonds, widely used across Europe, can provide returns several times higher than typical instant access accounts. These solutions aim to preserve capital, maintain flexibility, and help your savings keep pace with - or even outpace - inflation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Act Now to Stop Your Savings Losing Value&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Discover the cost of doing nothing with your wealth with&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Unio’s Savings Reality Check.&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;Then take the next step with a no‑obligation&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Wealth Check&lt;/a&gt;. A Unio adviser will help you understand your options, answer your questions in a simple 30 minute call about you, your wealth and how to grow it.&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/savings-reality-check&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Book your Wealth check today!&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;References &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;CSO, November&nbsp;2025: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cpi/consumerpriceindexnovember2025/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Consumer Price Index&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;RTE, September 2025: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/0922/1534703-worldpanel-by-numerator-supermarket-figures/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Grocery price inflation rises to 6.3% from 5.4%&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Central Bank of Ireland: August 2025 &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/bank-balance-sheets/2025m7_ie_monthly_statistics.pdf?sfvrsn=e38e691a_4&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Money and Banking Statistical Release&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Central Bank of Ireland: April 2025: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/statistical-publications/behind-the-data/low-and-slow&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Low and Slow: Irish Household Deposit Preferences&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;5.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;Biz Brief, December 2024: &lt;a href=&quot;https://bizbrief.ie/news/analysis-reveals-irish-savers-forfeit-e2-7-billion-by-overlooking-higher-interest-rate-deposit-accounts/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Analysis Reveals Irish Savers Forfeit €2.7 Billion by Overlooking Higher Interest‑Rate Deposit Accounts.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;6.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;RTÉ News: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/1211/1548415-cso-household-savings/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Household saving rate hits 14.8% in third quarter – CSO&lt;/a&gt;, December 2025&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Further Reading: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/balanced-portfolio-first-step-investing&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Taking the First Step on the Investment Ladder.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement&lt;/p&gt;

Is inflation quietly eating away your cash?

&lt;h1&gt;When Machines Enter the Mind&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Brain computer interfaces (BCIs) are no longer science fiction. As experimental neurotechnologies move from healthcare research into broader applications, they raise profound ethical, privacy and societal questions. When machines gain pathways to the human mind, the implications reach far beyond technology.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A recurring theme in this letter is the ‘Rise of the Machines’, the ways in which artificial intelligence (AI) and robots will become a growing part of manufacturing and service industries, not to mention our socio-political lives. Amidst the dominance of geopolitics as the driving force in the international political economy, every week brings a new leap forward in the capability of machines, from the rise of ClawBots and MoltBook, to advances in chip technology.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The latest, startling advance is Anthropic’s Mythos tool, whose ability to repair and reinforce software code against vulnerabilities has left software specialists flabbergasted, but whose potential is so great (and the model has strayed off the moral path in training) that the US Treasury has convened banks to fathom how a model like Mythos might, in extremis, attack banking software.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For the moment, Mythos is in relatively safe hands, but the potential for misuse of new technologies was underlined in an excellent report by the CEPA (Centre for European Policy Analysis) entitled&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/war-without-end-deterring-russias-shadow-war/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jUid_0jpkFQl4r__QHZaltjHJ34LFp66WWYr4758-Elt6oAQ4wk4T0fHpflXa32zEGfEeUJBxD8xN3yNq5QfX_3Q$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;’War Without End’&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;that outlined the multi-varied aspects of Russia’s violent interference across Europe. Many of these attacks are cunning and vicious, and in many cases use social media and increasingly, AI.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, the link between AI and crime was highlighted in a novel way by the&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/bbcstudios/2025/the-mystery-of-agatha-christies-writing-methods-brought-to-life-in-bbc-maestro-course/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jUid_0jpkFQl4r__QHZaltjHJ34LFp66WWYr4758-Elt6oAQ4wk4T0fHpflXa32zEGfEeUJBxD8xN3yNq0aicc_9$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;release of a BBC project that used&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;the work (published and private) of Agatha Christie to build a AI generated writing masterclass in the style and voice of Christie (whilst I am on the topic I heartily recommend the ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.shedunnitshow.com/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jUid_0jpkFQl4r__QHZaltjHJ34LFp66WWYr4758-Elt6oAQ4wk4T0fHpflXa32zEGfEeUJBxD8xN3yNq2oSNsQf$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;SheDunnit&lt;/a&gt;’ podcast).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With crime on my mind, and my inner ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/moriarty&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Moriarty&lt;/a&gt;’ awakened, I traipsed across Surrey for an offsite organized by the excellent&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.ucl.ac.uk/engineering/future-crime__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jUid_0jpkFQl4r__QHZaltjHJ34LFp66WWYr4758-Elt6oAQ4wk4T0fHpflXa32zEGfEeUJBxD8xN3yNq41I-26E$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Dawes Centre for Future Crime&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;at University College London. Appropriately in an age where criminal masterminds use technology, one of the Dawes Centre team, Vaseem Khan, has authored ‘Quantum of Menace’, a spin-off book from Ian Fleming’s James Bond oeuvre where technology quartermaster ‘Q’ is the hero.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the key strands of the Centre’s research is to identify how emerging technologies and megatrends, from climate change to robotics, may provoke new forms of crime and correspondingly, what countermeasures might be put in place. This time, we delved into the potential for neurotechnology to act as a conduit for crime, specifically in the ways BCI (brain-computer interfaces) technology, where brain waves can be used to control external devices, and potentially, vice versa, could be used in criminal acts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;BCIs are still experimental, though increasingly applied in healthcare (for sleep issues and in traumas), and in some research projects, the combined use of AI and BCI devices has succeeded in using brainwaves to ‘transcribe’ written messages. Elon Musk’s&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/neuralink.com/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jUid_0jpkFQl4r__QHZaltjHJ34LFp66WWYr4758-Elt6oAQ4wk4T0fHpflXa32zEGfEeUJBxD8xN3yNq8HLRFEO$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Neuralink&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;project is just one very ambitious indicator of where this technological field is headed.&nbsp;The implication is that we might ‘think’ instructions to a machine, or each other, but also that machines can access and potentially manipulate our brainwaves.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While BCI technology is still developmental, we need only look at how the many devices we use – phones, air pods, wrist monitors and headphones – and consider how in years to come, external devices could be used to link to our brainwaves.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From an ethical and privacy point of view, brainwaves are even more precious than our health data. Imagine if someone knew our innermost thoughts and fantasies or could control and shape these. In that context, the regulatory debate around the use of BCIs and neurotechnology is already underway but, that will not diminish the temptation for some people to use these devices in nefarious ways – to manipulate humans to do bad things, to alter witnesses memories of a crime, for social control, as a military technology, as a portal for fraud, cognitive enhancement, the suppression or exaggeration of emotions, as a tool to commit a murder and as an addictive stimulus, to name a few dark paths.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If we consider how consumer technology, social media, has come to dominate our lives and impact economies, sociability (and possibly fertility rates), public life and even diplomacy, it is worth taking the emergence of neuro-technologies very seriously, for their positive (healthcare) effects as well as negative. It is a truly new form of interaction. To a large extent, humans interact with AI, robots and machines as discrete entities, where to a large extent, humans have ultimate control (Mythos might disagree).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The new development is that neuro-technologies offer a pathway to our minds for machines.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Murder She Thought

&lt;h1&gt;Mike O’Sullivan on Newstalk's Breakfast Business: today’s key headlines&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This morning Joe Lynam was joined by Mike O'Sullivan, Chief Investment Officer, Unio&nbsp;on Newstalk's Breakfast Business to discuss some of the key themes making headlines:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://open.spotify.com/episode/6kqTBBhWqM71RTLc51yk4I?si=Wfu46tFWTrudACjLI4QoGw&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Listen to the interview here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;(8 minutes):&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- As details, emerge of the Government's new savings and investment scheme &quot;Ireland is just in the foothills of building a long term investing culture&quot;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- The continuing Middle East conflict is increasing jet fuel costs, meaning higher fares and possible disruption for summer travellers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;- On a lighter note: the 'great KitKat heist' - 12 tonnes of chocolate stolen as Nestlé warns of a possible shortage ahead of Easter!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Unio on Newstalk

&lt;h1&gt;Battle for Budapest: Hungary’s election and the EU’s next test&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the days before what is now known as the Iran War, and amidst the horrific suppression of its citizens by the Iranian state, a Dutch diplomat, having arrived at Tehran airport, was stopped and asked to disclose the contents of his luggage. He refused, citing diplomatic immunity, and left Iran, leaving his luggage behind. A subsequent inspection of the luggage in the presence of another Dutch diplomat, allegedly revealed three Starlink modems and a number of satellite phones.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It is not at all clear whether the devices were for ‘personal use’ or for the benefit of Iranian dissidents, but the incident reminded me of the efforts of George Soros to export hundreds of photocopiers into communist Eastern Europe in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, so that texts on democracy could be copied and circulated.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This was the very tip of the iceberg of Soros’ funding of the pro-democracy movement in Eastern Europe, and at one point it was said that he gave more in aid than all the Western governments together. In particular, Soros, who studied under the philosopher Karl Popper (author of ‘The Open Society and its Enemies’), was committed to creating an ‘open society’ in Hungary, the country of his birth, and established the Central European University (CEU) in Budapest in 1991.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Around the mid 1990’s I recall Bill Newton-Smith, a philosopher and Fellow at Balliol College and associate of Soros leaving England to help run the CEU. As he left Oxford, a young student activist called Viktor Orbán had come the other way (in 1990 I think), to begin a research fellowship on the topic of civil society in Europe, sponsored by the Soros Foundation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Orbán didn’t last long at Oxford, returned home to become a member of parliament and the leader of the main liberal party Fidesz. Orbán has been a central figure in Hungarian politics since then, but in the late 2000’s, underwent a political and moral transformation. At a conference in Prague some years ago, I spoke with a few entrepreneurs who had been early associates of Orbán's, and who had suspicions as to the motivation behind his change of tack.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This change pivoted on his relationship with Soros, who Orbán has transformed into a figure of hate for the far-right internationally. Equally, Orbán flipped his view on Russia. He had been highly critical of Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia, but soon after, following a visit to St Petersburg to meet Vladimir Putin, Orbán started to change his stance on Russia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For much of the past sixteen years, Orbán has commanded a large amount of popular support. However, his actions and willingness to go against the grain of the EU have come at a cost to Hungary: over the past fifteen years, Hungarian GDP growth has lagged that of Poland by 0.8% per annum, tens of billions in EU aid have been withheld, and corruption has become institutionalised under Orbán. Budapest has become a staging post for the Russian security services and teachers, women, judges, amongst others have suffered in ways they would not expect in a normal European country.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In this context, the general election in Hungary (April 12th) could become a critical turning point, and is highly important for the EU. At a broad level, polls point to a victory for Peter Magyar of the Tisza Party, with the majority of the opposition parties in Hungarian politics having swung behind him. However, in the context of extensive gerrymandering, a propensity for ethnic voting groups (Hungarians living abroad and Roma in Hungary) to tilt toward Orbán, and the capture of state institutions and budgets, the outcome is highly uncertain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Not only is Orbán an ally of Moscow (Orbán’s team has been accused of leaking confidential EU discussions to Russian officials, and Orbán holds frequent meetings with the Russian foreign minister), but he has become the darling of the international MAGA movement. Not only has Orbán’s campaign been endorsed by Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump, but Marco Rubio visited Budapest in mid-February and vice president JD Vance will travel there on April 7th, just before the election.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are already allegations of impropriety and vote rigging against Orbán, in what will be a hotly contested election, and deep suspicion of social media influence by Russia, not to mention the support of the White House.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;EU leaders fear a close election or that Orbán, having lost the vote, will use his remaining days to change laws and appointments to key institutions. The example of Poland is being mentioned, where on taking power Donald Tusk faced years of difficulty in removing hard-right opponents from media and other institutions.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As such, the EU will have to invest enormous time, energy and capital in remaking Hungary. The short-term gain for the EU will be the absence of the Hungarian veto on European foreign policy stances, notably so in the case of Ukraine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Should Orbán win, or continue to contest a close vote, a more existential issue faces the EU that will centre around a gathering debate on how to further sanction and potentially expel an EU member that is steadfastly recalcitrant.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Lurking behind the election, is a deeper foreign policy issue for Europe, in the context of several major wars and the disintegration of NATO, the need to combat more fiercely interference in the democratic processes of EU member states.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Battle for Budapest

&lt;h1&gt;Do no harm&nbsp;&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An unusual but non surprising cameo in the response of the UK to the burgeoning energy crisis that is resulting from the Iran War, was the inclusion of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey in last Tuesday’s emergency COBRA (Cabinet Office Briefing Room) meeting. The prospect that inflation and a cost-of-living crisis could further derail the fledgling economic recovery in the UK, has struck fear into politicians (the OECD reckons that the UK will be the worst hit country), though monetary policy purists won’t like the appearance that the independence of the ‘Old Lady’ (the Bank not Bailey!) is compromised.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What is more interesting is that this is yet another datapoint in a trend where finance, war and politics are becoming interwoven. In peacetime, central banks were the only game in town, the monetary battleships of the 2010’s, keeping the peace in bond markets and tilting currency moves in their country’s favour.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That was not always the case, books like Liaquat Ahmed’s excellent ‘Lords of Finance’, show the key role that central banks played in maintaining the stability of war time economies.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now, the world order that is unravelling before our eyes is more like that of the 1910’s than the 2010’s, and a particular concern for central bankers is the extent to which economies have become frictioned.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;By this, I mean the extra costs and inefficiencies that are bubbling up because of the end of globalization (a period associated with intense commoditization of prices and low inflation), a pandemic of supply chain disruption, and great power competition for ‘rare’ things (from rare earths to rare places like Greenland to rare technologies like quantum computing).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In general, these frictions will tend to bump up the rate of inflation. A famous example is the way in which the side effects of the war on Ukraine combined with short-sighted energy policy in Europe to produce a prolonged rise in inflation from 2021 to 2022.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From the point of view of central bankers, inured to a decade of stubbornly low inflation, this was a surprise, and prominent members of the central banking community were badly caught out by their view that this burst of inflation was ‘transitory’. Their difficulty is that the economic context of the 2010’s was characterised by demand weakness whereas the main policy problem of the 2020’s is supply constraint.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We now live in an economy of ‘atoms’ (energy, commodities, deeptech), where historically huge amounts of investment capital expenditure are being deployed amidst supply constraints to build a new (AI) economic infrastructure. About half of this will be financed by different forms of credit. Within this model, the debate on the productivity benefits of AI, which has produced a wide range of estimates of the potential impact of AI on the economy, illustrates what a demanding environment it is for central bankers to read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The potential energy shock from the Iran war complicates matters even more and raises the prospect of a policy error. Echoing the schoolboy mistake by Jean-Claude Trichet to raise interest rates in 2006 when a spike in the dollar helped trigger a spike in oil prices, current ECB President Christine Lagarde has stated that the ECB was ‘ready to raise rates’. This may be a pre-emptive move to push markets to do the ECB’s job, and to warn companies and unions off raising prices. If not, Lagarde and other central bankers should do no harm. A rate rise from the ECB will do nothing to re-open the Strait of Hormuz (good note on the disruptive&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.kielinstitut.de/publications/the-cost-of-closing-the-strait-of-hormuz-energy-bottlenecks-and-global-food-security-19613/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!miAYV3cbBaQeXclA8_zhhwgG5OoitNjPwHf7-XHHjCPEOnwFr0vDUR1RLe2YkcOX31L-5mwcXZD-Tf2J1SkMETHp$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;effects from the Kiel Institute&lt;/a&gt;), nor to rebuild refining capacity in the Gulf states.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The dilemma for central bankers is in distinguishing between an energy centric rise in prices and an eventual generalised rise in inflation expectations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In my view the economic consequences of the Iran War can be short lived, but as long as it endures, amounts to a tax on consumers, a hit to risk appetite and a blow to confidence in US financial assets. Furthermore, the many costs of the war (see our note of two weeks ago, ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/war-debt-strategic-contradiction&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;It will be over by Christmas’&lt;/a&gt;) include a rise in the debt burden that countries like the US and UK will suffer, and an elevated level of uncertainty as the world’s former policeman turns bully.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It could be worse for central bankers, they could be politicians, who now must contend with another cost-of-living crisis, with little money left in the fiscal jar.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Do No Harm

&lt;h1 style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mars, Venus or lost in space?&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Two recent events have me thinking of a 2003 book by the international relations expert Robert Kagan, entitled ‘&lt;em&gt;Of Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New World Order&lt;/em&gt;’, which started life as a 2002 article in Policy Review. In the foreign affairs world, the book is known colloquially as ‘Mars or Venus’, because the opening sentence goes ‘Americans are from Mars and Europeans are from Venus’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Kagan’s aim was to explain that Europe and the US had very different views of the world, and that these differences were rooted in culture, history and aims. Europe is the older, wiser and more genteel continent, concerned with roping its social democracy in well-made rules, whereas the relatively younger American republic (250 years old this year) was more muscular, in military and financial terms. Kagan’s book, in keeping with the reception given to Francis Fukuyama’s ‘The End of History’ and more recently Graham Allison’s ‘Destined For War’, is better known for its strapline than the detail of its argument, but then again that is the art of the successful author, and one that in comparison, few European international relations experts have cracked.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That, in 2002, Kagan felt the need to state that Europeans and Americans are different, betrayed the long-held sense that they are the same people, in the sense that in 2002, the vast majority of Americans could trace their family history back to Germany, Ireland, Britain and France (in 1960 some 85% of foreign-born Americans were from Europe vs 10% today).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That much was also clear during the many events in Washington to mark St Patrick’s Day. President Trump invoked his own European heritage (Scottish mother, German father), teased Speaker Mike Johnson as to whether he was a WASP or Italian, whilst Taoiseach Micheal Martin told how a Cork man, Stephen Moylan, a senior officer in George Washington’s staff, is credited with the first use of the phrase ‘the United States of America’ in 1776.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context, the ‘Mars and Venus’ argument is ever more relevant today as the divide between Europe and its American cousins widens. While European countries wholeheartedly supported the US in the 1991 Kuwait War (see our recent note) and in the aftermath of 9/11, the doubts that many European governments had over the 2003 invasion of Iraq partly motivated Kagan’s book (the film ‘Quai D’Orsay is very good in this context).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In that context, the polite refusal of nearly all of America’s allies, not just in Europe but also the likes of Japan and India, to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz, is emblematic of a deepening divide, and in recent weeks a good number of American friends have reached out to ask ‘is it us, or is it you?’. My polite response is that ‘it’s the White House’ (noting that most Americans are against this war), but more broadly I feel that one of the great anomalies of our time is that so few Americans realise the damage that is being done to America’s reputation abroad.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;So, one might argue that Kagan’s ‘Mars-Venus’ short-hand for international relations has never been more true, and the fact that Europe has done little in the past twenty years to bolster its security, and to deepen its financial markets, gives some weight to American frustration and derision. Equally, the vandalization of shared values (democracy) and institutions (NATO, the United Nations) by the White House causes horror across European capitals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Yet, at this painful point in trans-Atlantic relations, I wonder if we have reached peak ‘Mars-Venus’, in the context that Europe today is still quite like it was in 2003 in terms of world view, whereas the US is politically and socially very different to that of 2003.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My reasoning is that Europe is finally having the ‘neo-con’ moment that the US went through in the early 2000s (Robert Kagan was part of that movement), and is starting to rebuild its defences, though it lags badly on capital markets union (now Investment Savings Union).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Oddly, Europe no longer shares the same enemies as the US. Russia should be the prime concern of European security chiefs. It is also troubling that the Trump administration actively supports far-right parties like the AfD in Germany, and the few European nations who side with the Kremlin (VP Vance visits Hungary next week).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As such, Europe’s path and challenge is clear – to remain the sole liberal democratic pole in a disordered world. When Robert Kagan wrote his book in 2003, the natural assumption was that American democracy was a beacon for others to follow, as far as Asia and even across Eastern Europe (Kagan’s wife Victoria Nuland was a senior American diplomat serving in Eastern Europe during ‘the Maidan’ in 2014, where her most famous utterance was ‘f@#k the EU’).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Yet, America’s democracy is now in deep trouble, and one of the sharpest critics of Donald Trump’s approach is Robert Kagan, who warns of the descent towards a dictatorship.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Further Reading on this topic:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/oil-shock-markets-energy-2026&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Oil Shock: Europe’s Energy Risk and Market Resilience | Unio Insights&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/middle-east-market-impact-webinar-unio&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;How Middle East Tensions Are Shaping Markets | Unio Insights&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/war-debt-strategic-contradiction&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;War, Debt and Strategy: Why Conflicts Strain Public Finances | Unio Insights&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/safe-places&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Safe Places: What Europe’s Shifting Security Landscape Means for Markets | Unio Insights&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Mars, Venus or lost in space?

&lt;h1&gt;An Oil Shock?&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The decision by the White House to embark on a war with Iran is already proving costly—in human terms, through economic disruption (notably across the Middle East), financially (with the US reportedly spending $12bn on weapons and munitions in the first week), and in the impact of rising energy prices on the global economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The jump in the price of oil, from near $60 a few months ago to $100 will weigh on the world economy, but for now markets are reading this as a temporary event. In addition, the structure of economies has changed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Compared to the 1970s oil shock, the US and European economies are much less energy intensive than in prior decades, corporate cashflows and balance sheets are healthy and thus able to withstand shocks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The US is now an energy exporter so to an extent, can benefit from higher energy prices, unlike the 1970s, but Europe is likely much more vulnerable. While the energy shock in Europe is much less severe than in 2022 when Ukraine was invaded, the Iran war will catalyse further changes in its energy policy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a new development, last week Ursula von der Leyen, the EC president, has upgraded the role that nuclear power will play as part of Europe’s energy strategy, placing it on par with renewables. In very broad policy terms, this is a new move, and one that Germany will focus on. In addition, the complex emissions trading system in Europe has the effect of boosting marginal energy prices, notably so in countries like Italy and Austria. With gas and other fuel prices rising, this system will now likely come under review. Populist parties in France for example, have been calling for ways to reduce headline fuel prices.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are other disruptive effects. For example, in addition to the manufacture of fertiliser, the Middle East supplies roughly a third of global helium, the coolant for MRI machines, semiconductor fabrication and quantum computing infrastructure. It is also a globally critical supplier of sulphur, the essential feedstock for sulphuric acid, and is a strategic hub for copper and base‑metal processing. In this respect, a prolonged crisis will produce specific but costly supply chain disruptions.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A Macro Lens&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;From a macroeconomic point of view, the key question is whether the war will produce a durable rise in inflation, or alternatively a global macro demand shock. Our sense is that the risk is of the latter. Rising energy costs and the open-ended risks that the war entails are likely to curb risk appetite, capital market activity and cause consumers to be more judicious in their spending.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Market Reaction&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So far, bond markets have taken a different view, inflation swaps have risen, yields on Treasuries have jumped by a little bit more, signalling tighter monetary conditions. Central banks will thus be very careful as to how they interpret these market signals, and some of the more experienced central bankers will be mindful of how the European Central Bank, under the leadership of Jean-Claude Trichet, hiked rates in response to an oil price spike in the year before the global financial crisis.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Standing back, despite the human cost and media headlines, markets are so far resilient, and other themes such as volatility in private credit and rapid developments in the application of AI are also drivers of price action.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If this conflict stretches beyond the end of March, and there is damage to gas facilities in countries like Qatar, we expect the market reaction to be more pronounced. For now, our expectation is for some form of accord to be reached before then.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Download this month's GMC Outlook: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Unio-GMC-_March-2026-_-An-Oil-Shock-.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;An Oil Shock?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

An Oil Shock?

&lt;p&gt;Catch up on this timely conversation as Noreen Stokes, Private Client Director at Unio and Mike O’Sullivan, Chief Investment Officer at Unio unpack what Middle East events could mean for global markets, Ireland’s economy, and investor portfolios. Watch the recording below:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/h9FyXabCsmc?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Get the latest financial news and analysis, direct to your inbox. The Unio View. Clear insights, fresh perspectives. &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/subscribe-to-the-view&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Sign up here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Beyond the Headlines: The Middle East and Global Market Turbulence

&lt;h1&gt;&lt;strong&gt;It will be over by Christmas&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;&quot;Mon centre cède, ma droite recule, situation excellente, j'attaque&quot;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the First Battle of the Marne, not so far from Paris, in September 1914, Marshall Foch sent the above, inspiring communiqué to Marshall Joffre (‘my centre is crumbling, my right is retreating, the situation is excellent, I attack!’). The Battle of the Marne was arguably the greatest land battle of the twentieth century and caused over 500,000 casualties. Its strategic effect was to halt and reverse Germany’s lightning attack across France towards Paris and set the scene for years of entrenched warfare. At the time, the Great War was some three months old, and many thought that ‘it will be over by Christmas’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are few parallels between the First World War and the Iran War, but there is a creeping feeling that, in the absence of a clear strategy from the White House (see last week’s note ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/safe-places&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Safe Places’&lt;/a&gt;), there is a risk that this conflict becomes entrenched.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is already very costly. In the first week of the attack on Iran, the US apparently spent close to USD 11bn on weapons and munitions, and that is without calculating the human and economic costs. In the context of record public indebtedness, the question is not so much can America win the war, but can it afford it?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed,&nbsp;it seems largely forgotten now that America’s own wars have been associated with indebtedness. That the American Revolutionary War was financed mostly by the French (Lafayette and Beaumarchais), Spain and the Netherlands – indeed in a lesson for policy makers today, Congress had to print money to pay off these loans, which had the effect of causing rampant inflation and devaluing the dollar.&nbsp;It's also worth flagging that the American Civil War saw a sharp run up in debt (US sovereign debt in 1865 was 40 times what it was in 1860, according to figures from the Treasury), the consequence of which was a collapse in the dollar, again.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Still, the lesson that wars generally strain finances, seems to have been habitually forgotten.&nbsp;Some might recall that Larry Lindsey, an economic adviser to George W. Bushs’ administration left his job after producing what at the time was considered to be a high estimate (USD 200bn) of the costs of the second Iraq War. It turned out to be a conservative estimate, as the Congressional Budget Office put the cost of the war at USD 2.4bn and other analysts have put the total cost at closer to USD 5bn.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equally,&nbsp;Britain and France are fascinating in many ways – they have very old and rich economies and together have been involved in most wars going back to at least 1000 AD. Britain is a nose ahead of&nbsp;France in that there is arguably a longer thread of data available about its economy, and it is very well curated by the likes of the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility, whose note on ‘300 years of public finance data’ is a must read for aficionados of economic history.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If I could sum up those 300 years of data it would be to state that wars drive indebtedness, and then indebtedness itself drives fiscal reform. Between 1700 and 1800, debt to GDP in Britain rose from 25% to close to 200%, during a period that was marked by wars over the Spanish Succession, the Austrian Succession, the Seven Years War, the American War of Independence and of course the Napoleonic Wars (after the French Revolution).&nbsp;As a rough rule, British participation in the many and varied wars of the 18th&nbsp;century led to spikes in defence spending of up to 10%, whilst the more deadly world wars saw defence spending push beyond 50% (of GDP).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;More broadly, the Kiel Institute has created a database of conflicts going back over the past 150 years that measures the economic costs of war, and they have used this to create a model that scopes the potential economic costs of war scenarios. Though quite chilling in its consequences, their interactive tool is useful, and I recommend it to the White House.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, I input a scenario (based on 2023 economic valuations) for a war that takes place in Taiwan and also in China (assuming a dramatic US riposte). The direct economic and capital damages are well into the USD 20 trillion, and that is without counting US military losses and the disruptive effect on world trade, risk appetite, and financial market collateral damage.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, not only do armies march on their stomachs as Napoleon hinted, but also on their balance sheets.&nbsp;In this alarming context, geopolitical ‘players’ have two pressing needs. One is to build out their military capabilities, and the other is to reduce debt – in part to allow them the fiscal space to be warlike. With the US now spending over USD 100 bn more on interest payments on its debt than on its military, it is living a strategic contradiction.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

It Will Be Over by Christmas

&lt;h1 style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Safe Places&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I started the week in the beautiful surroundings of Killarney, Co. Kerry, where after nearly two months of constant rain, we enjoyed blue skies. One of my earliest memories of Killarney, thanks to Irish-German cousins, was the sizeable German community there (Killarney used have a German butchers) and a commonplace saying at the time was that the reason many Dutch and Germans were drawn to the southwest of Ireland is that its remoteness and prevailing winds, meant that it would be the safest place in Europe in the event of a Cold War nuclear exchange.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That much was mildly reassuring given the news from the Middle East.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;More so in the context that, in the same corner of the world at Île Longue in Brittany, Emmanuel Macron announced an upgrade of France’s nuclear deterrent, and critically the building of a European nuclear umbrella encompassing the likes of Greece, Belgium, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. This was followed by bi-lateral announcements by other states, notably Germany, and work on joint operations committees will start to take shape from the end of this year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This is a major announcement from France and the involvement of other countries is highly significant, especially in the case of Germany, and it is yet another indication of the advent of a Military Union in the EU (and I would include Norway and the UK here, possibly Canada). Yet, as we noted in last week’s note (‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/riddle-of-the-funds&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Riddle of the Funds’&lt;/a&gt;), capital markets union, and business scaling incentives will be more important than nuclear missiles in enabling Europe to build a military innovation complex.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My worry is that with the pace of geopolitical events taking place at a rapid speed, Europe may leave it too late. The attack on Iran was a case in point, but the White House has left the outside world convinced that it has no coherent strategy for Iran, and this exposes multiple risk scenarios.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Five weeks ago in our ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/persepolis&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Persepolis’&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;note, we concluded by observing that the future of Iran might change when&nbsp;&nbsp;‘&lt;em&gt;An opening may come when the Supreme Leader, Khamenei dies – he is&nbsp;86 and suffers from cancer. This event could provide the cover for a discrete but meaningful shift in policy, and the start of negotiations on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program, and the beginning of a more promising era&lt;/em&gt;’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Broadly, my view has not changed. The volatility of the past week has taught us much more about the behaviour of investors and market analysts, than the future of Iran. There has simply been too much ‘knee-jerkism’, about the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on long-term inflation and bond markets for example.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What matters most is the long-term alignment of Iran with other countries in the region, post this war, and in this context,&nbsp;there are several considerations. If this war ends in a ‘Mission Accomplished’ style declaration of triumph by both the US and Iran, the first factor will be the extent to which Iranian civil society has any role in the government. Iran is unlike Iraq was in 2003 in that it has a broad middle class, and a large, wealthy diaspora ready to contribute to the country. Unfortunately, it is also unlike Iraq in the sense that it has a very broad, entrenched regime elite, and herein lies the fallacy of the White House’s decapitation strategy. The Iranian ‘regime’ is composed of priests, oligarchs and the military, who have deep economic interests across the country (the IRGC own stakes in many businesses) and unrooting them will be difficult. If somehow, a more modern elite was to eventually come to power in Iran, then this would be a considerable boost for my ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-fourth-pole&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Fourth Pole’&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;thesis of a coherent, thriving economic&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;zones&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;across the region.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If Iran is not ‘Iraq in 2003’, then the prosecution of this war by the US looks from a political point of view, nothing like the 1991 Gulf War. At the time George H. Bush, himself a decorated aviator, spent time building a coalition of allies to fight a war with a very clear and limited objective. Bush, General Norman Schwarzkopf and Colin Powell were recognized for their leadership and clarity, and we cannot say the same for Secretary of War Hegseth.&nbsp;Today, there is no sense of an overall strategy (though Israel’s aims are clear), and the enduring sense is that the White House is now a source of uncertainty, rather than an architect of peace.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then, finally, the remarkable feature of this war is how publicly quiet Russia and China have been about the plight of their Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) partner. China has become a vital financial partner in the last decade, Russia is at the epicentre of Iran’s economy and military supply chain. I recall taking an internal flight in Iran twenty years ago where the bodyguards of a Russian businessman stood protectively in the aisle for the duration of the flight (including takeoff and landing).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The danger is less Russian opportunism, but rather that it and China perceive America’s action to be strategic, and that they respond in kind. Other countries like Turkey will also ponder the post-war landscape and what it means for their regional positioning.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Let’s hope that none of them think of Kerry!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Safe Places

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A friend who lives in an isolated area and therefore in need of&nbsp;good reading&nbsp;material, recently asked me to recommend some geopolitical oriented thrillers. I&nbsp;immediately&nbsp;thought of decent, new writers in the field like David McCloskey and Charles Beaumont, the interesting recent James Stavridis/Elliot Ackerman&nbsp;books&nbsp;that straddle fact and fiction, as well as the scary ‘If Russia Wins’ by Carlo Masala.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;However, many of my favourites are from different eras, Laurence Durrell's 'White Eagles over Serbia' set during the Cold War, and then in a bygone period of great power competition, the works of Eric Ambler and of course, Erskine Childers ('Riddle of the Sands' ).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The end of globalization and the onset of great power competition means that those works remain relevant though, if on the fourth anniversary of the war on Ukraine European policymakers wanted reading recommendations, I might well propose a book like Sebastian Mallaby’s ‘The Power Law’, or Azeem Azhar’s ‘Exponential’, and to be cheeky, even ‘The Art of the Deal’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My reasoning, with Europe (the EU, UK, Nordic nations) finally starting to mobilise its factories and innovators to bolster its war economy, is that there&nbsp;remain&nbsp;several missing elements in the quest to build the industrial champions of the European war economy. Europe’s politicians are&nbsp;very good&nbsp;at high minded rhetoric (there are repeated calls to build the European Google, Palantir and Anduril), and even better at racking up debt, but less gifted at spurring large scale innovation.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;For instance, the response to the hostile American message to the EU at the 2025 Munich Security Conference was the lifting of the German debt brake, while the recent threat to ‘take’ Greenland has prompted multiple calls for the issue of ‘euro-bonds’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;However, with German military spending and defence related industrial production now taking off, the secret to defence and security innovation lies more in business school texts, than in war college. There are a few elements to highlight here.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first one touches on a perennial problem for Europe, the lack of depth in financial markets. Amidst an epidemic of defence start-ups and fund launches across Europe, there are still relatively few investment funds focused on the kind of later stage investing&nbsp;required&nbsp;to scale security focused companies to a size where they can become part of the growing industrial infrastructure in Europe. This lacuna owes in part to the failure of Capital Markets Union (now Investment Savings Union), such that few pension funds and institutional managers are investors in 'strategic autonomy'.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It also reflects a labour market problem – there are simply few investors in Europe who have good knowledge of the defence and dual use ecosystem.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The idea of an ecosystem is the second aspect of the defence investment riddle. A small number of countries have cracked this – the US and France stand out. In the US, like France, the education system provides a rich supply of engineers and technologically capable&nbsp;graduates (e.g.&nbsp;Onera&nbsp;Labs in France), many of whom have a layer of business school training, and in&nbsp;a good number&nbsp;of cases have ties to or experience in the military.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ecosystems encompass large firms, divisions of the military and defence establishment (i.e.&nbsp;SpaceForce), as well as sector specialist investors. When the elements of such an ecosystem are connected and work together, they can propel an interesting start-up to&nbsp;a viable&nbsp;enterprise in a few years. A developed pan-European ecosystem does not exist, and its cultivation needs to surmount cultural obstacles (as the recent Future Combat Air System (FCAS) debacle has shown), tax and incentive policy, and a more open approach to innovation from large European firms.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Then, the element that is to my observation missing in many new defence focused start-ups and first-time investment funds is the presence of seasoned business operators who have experience in scaling businesses and advising on how best to navigate the various complex government procurement pathways across Europe.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This is a critical omission in the defence sector because government led procurement can help start-ups&nbsp;survive but&nbsp;not necessarily grow. This is doubly so in dual-use technologies such as cyber security and hardware (including new materials), where ‘go to market’ is a more important imperative than ‘go to war’.&nbsp;Compared to the US, Europe has a short supply of such operators, and in general governments have not done&nbsp;a good job&nbsp;of encouraging them to become part of the ‘strategic autonomy’ economy.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Europe faces a diplomatic disengagement by the US, a grave security threat from Russia and industrial dislocation by China. As such, Europe’s war economy needs to add up to much more than guns and drones, but must rest on innovation,&nbsp;entrepreneurship&nbsp;and ambitious capital.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have&nbsp;a great week&nbsp;ahead, Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Riddle of the Funds

&lt;p&gt;In this article,&nbsp;Yvonne Clinton CFP®, a financial&nbsp;planner in Unio’s Financial Planning team,&nbsp;explores how families can pass on more than their wealth by helping the next generation build the confidence and skills they need to manage that wealth well.&nbsp;A&nbsp;5-minute read.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland is experiencing an unprecedented transfer of wealth between generations, with almost two thirds (63%) of the wealthiest 20% of households (top quintile) in Ireland having&nbsp;received an intergenerational transfer at some point(1).&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As families accumulate more assets, a crucial question arises:&nbsp;is&nbsp;the next generation ready to manage what they inherit&nbsp;or will the wealth&nbsp;that has&nbsp;built&nbsp;up&nbsp;over&nbsp;their parents’&nbsp;lifetimes&nbsp;be squandered due to&nbsp;a&nbsp;lack of understanding&nbsp;of how to manage&nbsp;it properly?&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The&nbsp;demanding work&nbsp;of wealth building&nbsp;-&nbsp;earning promotions, managing expenses, buying a home, saving for the future&nbsp;-&nbsp;is just one part of the picture. Knowing how to preserve, grow, and pass on that wealth requires something else entirely: financial&nbsp;confidence and&nbsp;knowledge.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What do we mean by financial confidence?&nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having financial confidence allows you to engage better with important financial decisions, particularly in areas such as borrowing, investing, and long-term planning. It combines practical knowledge with the clarity and self-assurance needed to make informed choices. When people build financial confidence, they are better equipped to plan and manage their money in line with their individual or family goals.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Yet across the EU, around half of adults lack a sufficient understanding of basic financial concepts (2). Given the potential complexity of financial products, this gap in knowledge can lead to poor decision-making or to decisions being avoided altogether.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For many, financial understanding is developed informally through family, friends, books, media, or online sources. Beyond this, busy professionals often turn to a wealth manager, delegating the technical aspects of managing their assets to an expert. However, even with the support of a trusted adviser, many individuals still struggle to feel fully confident participating in financial conversations, let alone taking ownership of key financial decisions.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Better Understanding. Better Decisions.&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Working with a wealth manager can give clients peace of mind, but it is not a substitute for developing your own financial knowledge.&nbsp;Having a basic understanding of principles of investment risk, cashflow management,&nbsp;asset liquidity, and inheritance rules&nbsp;can lead to better outcomes.&nbsp;The client does not&nbsp;have to be&nbsp;an&nbsp;expert themselves,&nbsp;however&nbsp;if they understand the&nbsp;rationale&nbsp;behind their adviser’s recommendations, they are empowered to make decisions&nbsp;with the confidence that&nbsp;aligns&nbsp;with their values and long-term goals.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Confidence, or Over-confidence?&nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Most&nbsp;young people think it is important to talk about money,&nbsp;a change from&nbsp;previous&nbsp;generations&nbsp;when&nbsp;talking about finance was seen as impolite!&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A recent RED C survey commissioned by Unio Wealth Management for our &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-unio-building-wealth-report&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Building Wealth Report&lt;/a&gt; (3) shows that Irish people are divided on the concept of wealth, with an equal number of respondents feeling comfortable with the term as those who feel uncomfortable. Interestingly, 40% approx. of respondents in the 18-34 cohort expressed comfort with the notion of wealth 3.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But&nbsp;the next generation&nbsp;face their own issues when it comes to financial literacy, as&nbsp;this openness to discuss wealth&nbsp;doesn’t&nbsp;always translate to sound decision-making.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many&nbsp;young people are learning about money via social media, and this can&nbsp;lead to the development of over-confidence in their own knowledge and decision-making ability.&nbsp;The impact of risk on reward may be under-stated by&nbsp;influencers&nbsp;focusing on single stocks, or niche investments (4).&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Supporting the next generation to build their knowledge will enable them to understand that&nbsp;financial products and investment return are a tool to achieve their goals – not a goal in and of themselves.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Leaving a legacy that is more than just&nbsp;financial&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many parents may actively avoid discussing money with their children. Often this is driven by a desire to protect the children and ensure they are motivated to study and work hard at their own, independent careers.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But by shielding children from financial realities,&nbsp;they&nbsp;risk leaving them unprepared&nbsp;and&nbsp;unequipped to&nbsp;manage significant assets when the time comes.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A&nbsp;legacy&nbsp;can be&nbsp;more than money. It can&nbsp;also&nbsp;encompass the&nbsp;values, habits, and&nbsp;attitude towards finance&nbsp;that parents develop over their lifetime and pass on to their children. Without a shared understanding of how wealth is earned, managed, and preserved, even the best financial strategies can unravel within a generation.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;How to build financial&nbsp;confidence&nbsp;for&nbsp;you&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Be Curious&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Building&nbsp;personal&nbsp;financial literacy can start with the simple act of being&nbsp;curious and&nbsp;asking questions.&nbsp;When your adviser recommends a particular course of action, invest time in understanding the rationale. Over time, these conversations build financial confidence and enable deeper, more meaningful engagement.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Learning Opportunities&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your adviser may also share educational content, such as webinars or insights. Actively engaging with these materials&nbsp;-&nbsp;especially those most relevant to your situation&nbsp;-&nbsp;can expand your knowledge in areas you may not have considered before, such as estate planning, retirement, or philanthropic giving.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Ask Questions&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Know your&nbsp;own&nbsp;knowledge&nbsp;limitations;&nbsp;be honest about when you&nbsp;don’t&nbsp;understand something and be comfortable&nbsp;to&nbsp;ask questions and seek advice from professionals.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;And your Family&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Talk to Your Children About Money&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having age-appropriate&nbsp;discussions&nbsp;with your children can develop financial literacy from&nbsp;an early age. These conversations could start out as simple discussions over whether to spend or save pocket money this week. Teaching moments can&nbsp;also&nbsp;arise naturally in day-to-day life. For example, if there is a big purchase happening like a new car, or a home renovation, there may be an opportunity to talk through the costs of borrowing compared to saving to fund the purchase.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Avail of the Small Gift Exemption&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As the children grow, you can involve your adviser in this process of financial education.&nbsp;Parents will often use the&nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Small Gift Exemption&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;to gift up to €6,000 p.a. to a child in a tax-efficient manner.&nbsp;The&nbsp;child&nbsp;can&nbsp;usually&nbsp;access these funds from the age&nbsp;of&nbsp;eighteen, making this&nbsp;a suitable time&nbsp;to&nbsp;educate them about how to manage wealth and financial resources in a safe environment.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Investigate More Formal Structures&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For families with significant wealth, more formal structures&nbsp;such as family partnerships&nbsp;can provide oversight and protection&nbsp;of assets&nbsp;well beyond age 18, while gradually introducing children to the responsibilities of&nbsp;managing wealth.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;In short&nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial&nbsp;confidence&nbsp;starts with&nbsp;not being afraid to talk about finance and what your goals for your money are, while knowing the limits of your own knowledge.&nbsp;Beyond this,&nbsp;it means&nbsp;having in-depth conversations with your adviser, and&nbsp;your&nbsp;children. The wealth you have built up over the course of your lifetime is too important to leave to chance.&nbsp;&nbsp;Leave your family with&nbsp;both&nbsp;wealth&nbsp;and the ability to manage that wealth wisely.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the author&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Yvonne Clinton, CFP® is a financial planner in Unio Wealth Management’s Financial Planning Team and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;References&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-itw/intergenerationaltransferofwealth2020/keyfindings/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Intergenerational Transfer of Wealth, CSO, 2022&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2953&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Monitoring the level of financial literacy in the EU, European Union, 2023&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-unio-building-wealth-report&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Unio Building Wealth Report | Unio Insights 2025&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.mabs.ie/en/news/money-attitudes-and-behaviours-of-young-people-living-in-ireland/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Money, Attitudes and Behaviours of Young People Living in Ireland, MABS 2023&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Further Reading&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/passing-it-on-how-irish-families-are-rethinking-wealth-transfer&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Passing it on – How Irish Families are Rethinking Wealth Transfer | Unio Insights, 2025&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Next Step&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Passing On More Than Wealth

&lt;p&gt;Global tensions and rising debt are changing how investors view markets in 2026. Our latest Global Macro Council Outlook breaks down what’s happening, why trust in the US is slipping, and what it could mean for bonds, currencies and portfolios.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A Breakdown in Global Trust&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We are barely two months into the new year, and as we sift through the many geopolitical developments, it appears that the US is taking a more imperial view of the rest of the world, and in doing so is straining or even shattering relationships with allies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, trust between nations, and in particular trust by other nations in the United States (US) has crashed. The White House’s threats to ‘take’ Greenland broke any vestige of trust that Europe had in the administration, and the first public reaction was that European investors should sell American assets. This was perhaps an over reaction (given the lack of liquid alternatives).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Broadly, trust is vital to financial markets. The reason investors transact in ‘bits’ or ‘bits of paper’ is trust in the laws and standards that underpin them. Distrust helps to explain why the international use of China’s currency is so incredibly low compared to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For the past seventy years, international investors have generously trusted the US system, and in general been rewarded for doing so. To some extent the overreliance on the US capital markets has meant that other destinations, notably Europe, are less developed than they need to be. To that end, diversifying away from the US becomes more difficult in the near term.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, as geopolitical risk rises, and old assumptions are cast aside, investors will increasingly feel the need to adjust portfolios. This will likely be a slow, steady process.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Geopolitics, Currencies, and Capital Flows&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One guide to how this might work is the work of Barry Eichengreen. He is an academic authority on currencies and in a paper entitled &lt;em&gt;“Mars or Mercury? The Geopolitics of International Currency Choice”, &lt;/em&gt;written with two economists at the European Central Bank (ECB), he finds that military and geopolitical alliances are a significant factor in explaining currency strength. The rationale is that a country that is geopolitically well placed is engaged with and trusted by its allies through trade and finance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unsurprisingly, one of the main implications of the “Mars or Mercury?” paper is that in a scenario where the US withdraws from the world and becomes more isolationist, its strategic allies no longer become enthusiastic buyers of US financial assets and long term US interest rates could rise by up to 1 percent (there would be fewer buyers of American government debt), according to the paper.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, the many geopolitical events at the start of the year may now have triggered a move away from US assets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In keeping with this thesis, over the past nine months, US equities have underperformed European stocks, and the dollar has slipped to recent lows.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Valuations, Debt Pressures, and Diverging Bond Markets&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Unio’s view, there are other considerations to note, beyond geopolitics. The one indicator in our investment process that flashes red is the valuation of US equities (long term price to earnings ratio), which at an aggregate level is close to levels last seen during the dot.com bubble and, eerily, 1929.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition, the fiscal backdrop is worrisome: most major economies are heavily indebted (public rather than private debt), and there is little willingness on the part of finance ministers to cut back deficits. In the US, the Treasury now issues shorter term (than long term) debt, which helps to limit yield fluctuations but makes the bond market vulnerable to a buyers’ strike.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Europe, we see the emergence of a ‘relative value’ strategy, where investors differentiate more keenly between high and low debt countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For a change, Ireland is a good news story, as its debt level has been falling, and for the foreseeable future, yields should be well behaved.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Download this month's GMC Outlook: &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Unio-GMC-February-2026-The-Politics-of-Bonds-FINAL.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Politics of Bonds&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

The Politics of Bonds

&lt;h1&gt;Old Money and the Coming Demographic Power Shift&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A recent book, Samuel Moyn’s ‘Gerontocracy in America', highlights the growing concentration of wealth and power in the much older generations in the US, whilst younger generations face historically high valuations in real estate and financial assets, and how this growing intergenerational divide might be mended. Moyn, in my view, has struck a chord that will become one of the new dividing lines in politics, in Asia and the West.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;His book brings demographic change into focus, a slow-creeping risk to economies, society and public life, but whose implications are only just surfacing in the public debate. Despite that, from a popular point of view, the sense in many Western countries is that there are too many people, or rather that infrastructure has not kept up pace with population growth – I am writing this in Dublin, which is an excellent case in point.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Yet, the long-run demographic trends – falling fertility, longer life expectancy and a shift in population composition towards a much smaller working (tax paying) population, will have enormous impacts on society, pension systems and debt loads, to name a few economic issues.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As much was evident in Germany’s recent pension reform debate which was nearly upended by Helmut Kohl’s grandson Johannes Volkmann and a group of other young parliamentarians who voiced the right of the younger generation to not have to shoulder the financial burden of their parents’ generation (under the German system, and many others, the working population effectively funds the retirement system of the older generation).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The best starting point on the outlook for demographics is the United Nations World&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/population.un.org/wpp/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gLkIUHD46R3IUxVa_WP_8elW9aGaT7bbeUlZAi_WR0RsO8rrfbtaafoQKkGxV7oxKPykVbe56tdbL_iSDNVn4puH$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Population Prospects website&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;. and the data – especially in chart form – are quite striking.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The UN data shows that as we approach 2100 the world population will plateau and start to shrink. From roughly 2080 onwards the world population growth rate will turn negative for the first time in centuries (wars apart), as the death rate passes out the birth rate. Within the age cohorts, the over 65 group will expand by a billion people in the next thirty years.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;More specifically, at the country level, the US death rate will surpass the birth rate in around 2040, and population growth is likely to only be sustained by immigration. The picture is worse for some European countries – Italy for example is already in negative population growth territory, and the most negative forecast scenario from the UN has the Italian population dropping from over 60 million today to 25 million by 2100 (the same level as when Garibaldi unified the country).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equally, China, which has been renowned for its economic and population growth, will endure a collapse in the 24–65-year age group, who today number 830 million people and by 2100 are expected to comprise 280 million people. China is projected to be the country most affected by ageing, with its elderly dependency ratio expected to surpass 100% by 2080, meaning there will be more people aged over 65 than those aged 15 to 65.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The expected collapse in the working population begs serious questions for the economy – who will pay taxes, sustain pension systems and where will demand for financial assets come from. Markets are not worried, yet.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In general, researchers find that there is a positive link between demographics and asset prices, a finding that is predicated on the rise of the boomer middle class and the coincident equity bull market and fall in bond yields. The idea is that until they retire, working households invest more in real estate, equities and other riskier assets, but then shift to income-oriented assets like bonds as they get older and require income from investments. The oddity in that respect is that despite an ageing population, equities and real estate are very expensive. This may well owe to a growing investment culture, a record level of wealth (USD 500 trillion worldwide) and the prosperity boom that has resulted from globalization.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, old money will become a political target, both in terms of demands for lower inheritance taxes, to more populist measures to tax the ‘old’ and give the ‘young’. For governments who worry about demand for their bonds, wealthier older citizens might make ideal candidates for financial repression (their children would face lower inheritance tax provided that capital spent a period of ‘purgatory’ invested in government bonds – I outlined a similar theme in &lt;strong&gt;‘&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/patriotic-capital&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Patriotic Capital’&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the same time, pension systems will have to change to accommodate a proportionately smaller number of workers (to pensioners). Private pension systems will become more common, they will invest more, earlier, with a tilt to riskier assets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Concurrently, I expect to hear more on the need for states to establish sovereign wealth like funds (based potentially on the sale of state assets) to help provide for future pension liabilities. Another concern will be the need for states to cushion the potential blow of AI on workforces (a fund that holds equity in AI firms might be an avenue), at least through a transition period. In the long term, AI and robotics may well allow more older people to work for longer and for more women to enter the workforce. And, I haven’t managed to tackle the topic of later retirement ages and how that will impact the workforce and society.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The effects of demographics are not yet showing up in markets, and are just creeping into the investment industry, but it will become a major fiscal and financial megatrend.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;book a complimentary Wealth Check&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Old Money

&lt;h1&gt;Starmer's Leadership Crisis and How British Politics is Shifting&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The only positive aspect of the grim France versus Ireland rugby match of a week ago was that, serendipitously, I bumped into three brothers from Limerick whom I’ve known for some time. We re-grouped the evening after the match for a pint and a post-mortem, where the chat turned around sports and politics. Drawing the two threads together, one of the brothers noted that in the last ten years the UK has had more ministers for housing (a whopping 14) than Chelsea FC have had managers (12). Readers will immediately grasp the parallels between the two chaotic worlds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A couple of days later I had a chance to test the hypothesis at Old Trafford during the United vs. Spurs match (readers should not get the impression that I spend my life shuttling from one event to another). United are hardly a paragon of managerial stability, but I hope that in Michael Carrick we have finally rediscovered someone who recognises how the team should play. However, for much of the match, Thomas Frank, the Spurs manager, faced a barrage of abuse from the crowd, and having taken Spurs perilously close to the relegation zone, he was sacked on Wednesday.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The comparison between football and politics, in Britain at least, makes sense in other ways. Both are seeing an infusion of money, ‘overseas’ capital in the case of many British football clubs, and there is a good case to be made that foreign money has found its way into British politics also. Nick Gill, the former Reform UK man in Wales has recently been jailed for bribery (for spreading pro Russia content), and it is the stated objective of the White House team to involve themselves actively on the far-right fringes of British politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Both football and politics have in my view, become duller and devoid of what we might call ‘characters’, and both are in thrall to social media, to the irritating end that many MPs seem incapable of giving a speech in parliament without recourse to their mobile phone.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In one way, they are different. There is less violence in football, on and off the field, compared to the 1970’s and 1980’s, though at the same time public life has become much more unpleasant. Sadly, two MPs have been killed in the last 10 years at the hands of political extremists&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many MPs are leaving politics because of the stresses of the position. This pattern is repeated across many other democracies, especially in the case of female politicians.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The ire that is directed towards politicians may be one reason that Sir Keir Starmer is now, according to Ipsos and the FT, the most unpopular prime minister in over fifty years, and his Chancellor Rachel Reeves the most unpopular individual to hold that role. The oddity is that Starmer is honest, steady and importantly has not authored a policy disaster like Brexit. Perhaps, his failing is that like his favourite team Arsenal, he is ‘boring, boring’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sir Keir has been prime minister for some eighteen months, which eerily for him, is the average span of the Premiership football manager. Interestingly in this respect there are parallels in the corporate world, where the tenure of CEOs&nbsp;is shortening to about five years for the large US companies according to work at Harvard and some consulting firms. Like footballers but not MPs, CEOs&nbsp;are also much better paid.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Since the end of last year, Starmer’s Labour party colleagues have been stalking him, as they might a wounded animal. The deep embroilment of Peter Mandelson in the Epstein scandal has given these colleagues (many of whom know Mandelson very well) the cause to up the pace in the hunt for Starmer’s job, and the resignation of his right-hand man Morgan McSweeney, has only encouraged them. Now, there is 'blood in the water'&nbsp;and uncharitably thoughts turn to who might replace him, and what the political fallout could be.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A faceoff between the left leaning Andy Burnham (who does not have a seat in parliament), leftie Angela Rayner and the more centrist&nbsp;Blairite Wes Streeting is likely. An interesting compromise candidate could be energy secretary Ed Miliband, or even foreign&nbsp;secretary Yvette Cooper. My&nbsp;sense is that the British public does not want a more left leaning government, that they are ready for a more EU friendly policy set and that they want the next leader to be decisive.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is a high chance that Starmer&nbsp;goes, and that in many respects Labour shoots itself in the foot by dismaying the public and dividing their own party. By weakening themselves they increase the likelihood that a future government could incorporate a coalition of Labour/Liberal Democrats and the Greens. In itself, this would be a new departure (the only coalition since the War was the Tory/Lib Dem one from 2010-2015).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The UK (and the US) are unique in that they have been two party political systems for nearly one hundred years, at least. The structure of electoral systems has much to do with this. In many European countries, it is relatively easy to set up a political party and gain a foothold in parliament. Doing so in the UK has traditionally been very difficult because of the first past the post system.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, in the post Brexit era, a number of shifts are occurring, that are quickly coming to a head (especially so last week) that will entirely change British politics, and likely mean that after the next election, coalitions could be the norm rather than the exception.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the past month, Reform has welcomed several high-profile members of the Tory Party. With local elections in May, Nigel Farage has given Tories a deadline of early May to join Reform and a few others may join (Reform won only 5 seats in the last general election, followed by a number of by-elections, it now has 8 MPs). For context, Reform is at 29% in the polls, Conservatives and Labour on 18%, the Liberal Democrats on 13% and the Greens on 14%).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, Reform is becoming the (far) right wing party of choice, though it is unlikely they can muster enough decent candidates to win more than 20% of the seats (as opposed to votes).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In order to enter government, Reform would likely have to enter a coalition with the Tories, but with the recent defections, relations are at a low (Tories slated Braverman on her move).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then, on the left, the surprise in British politics has been the rise in support for the Liberal Democrats (they have 72 MPs, in stark contrast to Reform), and the sharp rise in support for the Greens. As such, if the distribution of seats in an election followed opinion polls, the next government might well be a left leaning, ‘Green’ coalition, something that would be common in a continental European country but, a complete break with tradition for British politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Starmer’s enemies appear committed to getting rid of him but need to take care that the road ahead is untravelled.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; book a complimentary Wealth Check &lt;/a&gt;with one of our expert advisory team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This article is a marketing communication and is considered an advertisement.&lt;/p&gt;

Boring, boring

&lt;h1&gt;Why Trust in Global Currencies is Shifting: Silver, Gold, Debt and Global Politics&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;‘It is not speed that kills, it is the sudden stop’&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This quote from a paper on currency crises by economist Rudiger Dornbusch came to mind last week as the price of silver having climbed over 100% in a month, collapsed by 30% in an afternoon. The sudden stop in silver is emblematic of many of the problems with financial markets but also strikes a chord with some of the deeper changes materialising within the world economy, such as the rising quantum of debt, and recent attacks on Jerome Powell.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As we noted in ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/grasshopper&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Grasshopper’&lt;/a&gt;, silver used to be a money, though the propensity of some users to mix it with inferior metal lead Sir Thomas Gresham to coin Gresham’s law that ‘bad money drives out the good’. In bulk form, silver and more so gold, was good enough to be a money, and to back up the paper money system until 1971 when the gold standard came to an end (one could present dollars to a bank and demand gold in return).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Without the backing of gold, the reasons people held and used paper (fiat money) were determined largely by important intangible factors – such as the rule of law, policy credibility, quality of institutions, as well as the economic usage of that paper – did central banks hold it as a reserve currency, is it widely traded and are financial institutions happy to use it? On most of these criteria, investors, businesses and central banks avoid China’s renminbi, but for the same reasons have been very happy to use the dollar, and to a lesser extent the euro. But, that might be changing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First of all, as globalization crumbles, there is a rise in distrust, notably in the dollar. There are two facets to this.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In my notes, I have mentioned the work of Barry Eichengreen a number of times. He is the academic authority on currencies and in a paper entitled “Mars or Mercury? The Geopolitics of International Currency Choice” written with two economists at the ECB, he finds that military and geopolitical alliances are a significant factor in explaining currency strength. The rationale is that a country that is geopolitically well placed is engaged with and trusted by its allies through trade and finance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unsurprisingly one of the main implications of the “Mars or Mercury?” paper is that in a scenario where the United States withdraws from the world and becomes more isolationist, its strategic allies no longer become enthusiastic buyers of US financial assets and long-term interest rates in the United States could rise by up to 1 percent (there would be fewer buyers of American government debt), according to the paper. As such the many geopolitical events at the start of the year may now have triggered a move away from US assets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A related move is that the institutions behind the dollar are also under attack, and from outside at least, look less sure. The mid-term elections and the way in which they are held, will be instructive.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next head of the Federal Reserve is another important development. My instinct, unlike other economists is to put less store on his family background, and suspicions that he might not be independent, simply because any political bias or even more general lack of judgement, will be quickly punished by markets. I agree with stances he has taken in recent years, notably against the ongoing deployment of quantitative easing. The really interesting element of the Warsh Fed will be the partnership he forms with Scott Bessent, and I suspect that this ‘accord’ will focus on creating the means by which the financial sector (notably banks) becomes the driving engine of the economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are other factors at work. China has been aggressively courting its emerging market trading partners to use the renminbi, and this is beginning to show up in currency flows (the renminbi has jumped from 2% to 4% of international trade driven transactions in the last two years, according to a research paper from the Fed). The big shift however is central banks, who for a variety of reasons, mostly geopolitical, have a newfound penchant to hold gold as a reserve, rather than Treasuries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this regard, buying by central banks has been the new development in the gold market in recent years, this has been surpassed by the side-effects of the financialisaton of gold and silver. To state it simply, the existence of exchange traded funds(ETFs) (with liquid options markets on these ETFs) has allowed retail investors, and institutions, to speculate on the price of gold. In the old days one had to buy it in bar loads, and in Zurich at least, take the No. 13 tram to visit the gold, as we described in a note,&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/marmite&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Marmite&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The lashings of financial products that have been built around gold and silver have to a large extent transformed them from stores of value, into Frankenstein-like speculative assets. The 30% collapse in the price of silver last week had many causes, but most of them can be traced to financial engineering. As such, this is a warning that, in a world with more US PE funds than McDonalds in the US and with more ETF’s than stocks, financialisaton can ultimately be highly damaging.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another angle on this is bitcoin, a techno-financial response to the growing lack of trust in economies. Some commentators have described it as digital gold, but it looks to have failed the test of being a money and is most certainty not a safe asset. I regard it as a risk asset, in a small, narrow pantheon with art, penny stocks and racehorses. Indeed, its utility as an instrument to transfer money is also diminishing, in a world where stablecoins are more prevalent, and where fintech is getting better (and cheaper) at facilitating transactions. It might be next for a stress test.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Funny Money

&lt;h1&gt;How Small States and Middle Powers Are Redrawing the Global Map&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the highly unique, and fascinating characteristics of this era of unravelling is the way we increasingly look at the world from a geopolitical rather than a geographic point of view. In previous phases in history, geography and geopolitics aligned neatly – for example the democratic West faced off against the communist East while economically, the North was well ahead of the South. Now, select countries from disparate parts of the world share the same dilemmas and challenges. Japan, as a middle power, arguably has more in common geopolitically with the UK, than it does with Indonesia. In turn, Singapore and Ireland, arguably share the same geopolitical stress points.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the post globalized world, new coalitions and constellations of countries are beginning to emerge. That much was on display at Davos two weeks ago, when Canadian prime minister Mark Carney eloquently pleaded the case of the democratic ‘middle powers’ and the need for them to collaborate. His speech was followed by the far less eloquent launch of Donald Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’, which is a ragtag band of largely developing countries not known for their commitment to the rule of law and appreciation of human rights.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As the various threads of globalization – from the use of the SWIFT payment system to energy pipelines like Nord Stream, the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and the US, NATO, USAID, and many more, fall by the wayside, new groups and alignments emerge, and in the rest of this note I will sketch some of them.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To start at the top of the pyramid, regular readers will know that David Skilling and I have extensively researched the phenomenon of small, advanced economies – a group that spans Sweden, Singapore, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, Norway, Finland, Switzerland, Austria and Denmark, and that may in future incorporate the Gulf States.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Culturally, these countries are very different but share the same economic and social successes (‘happiest place to live’, ‘best rule of law’, ‘highest GDP’), and a common policy recipe that is based on innovation, openness, education and social cohesion. While we have even tried to create a policy forum for these countries (the ‘g20’), they do not act as a formal block but actively compare notes behind the scenes. For example, the Nordic states are learning from each other and collaborating on immigration, while Ireland urgently needs to follow the examples of Singapore and Norway on defence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then, below the small, advanced economies are the ‘middle powers’, sizeable, developed countries, many of whom enjoyed periods of international dominance, but are now beset by demographic issues (ageing and immigration), and are searching for a defined geopolitical role. Japan, the UK, Canada, Korea, Australia and Russia (not big enough economically to be a superpower, and not nice enough either). With the exception of Russia, the middle powers are democracies and most are eager that the world stays much the same as it was during the period of globalization (at least in the case of Keir Starmer). As such they are beginning to hedge bets by aligning with larger powers, Russia with China, and the UK is now cultivating much better relations with the EU.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Looming over the middle powers are the three ‘great powers’ – China, the US and the EU, each with their strengths – military, finance and technology for the US, culture, liberal democracy, well-being and cities in the case of Europe, and industry and cultural cohesion in the case of China.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;They will be the pillars of the emerging multipolar world, and in contrast to the globalized era where most countries adopted the American way of doing things, these three ‘blocs’ will increasingly do things their own, culturally specific way. AI is an example, but corporate governance might be another tack. In addition to these three behemoths, a&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-fourth-pole&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; ‘Fourth Pole’&lt;/a&gt; made up of a core of India and the Gulf states, is possible, as we wrote back in November.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Those classifications still leave about fifty percent of the world’s population unaccounted for, whose nations collectively labour under the term ‘Global South’. These countries, from Nigeria to Indonesia to Bangladesh, share similar policy problems – the building of e-commerce driven economies, healthcare and urbanisation, to name a few but they are not at all at the level of policy exchange as the small, advanced economies, and many of them do not have structured economic models.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For some, the idea of the ‘Fourth Pole’ can become an interesting organizing point, but to a very large extent the survival of existing world institutions, from the UN to the World Bank, now depends on the large, populous emerging economies. Equally, the directions that these countries take in their political economy – do they follow the ‘Chinese model’, the European democratic one, or something else altogether. This policy question is vastly underestimated in the discourse on international economics and politics, partly because the ‘great powers’ are not leading by example.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;talk to us.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Constellations

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Introducing Unio Wealth Check

&lt;p&gt;Global politics is becoming more tense and unpredictable. As trade ties weaken and economic pressures grow, financial markets may be more exposed to shocks, making risk management an increasingly important part of investing. Read more in this month's Global Macro Council (GMC) Outlook.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A Shifting and More Confrontational Global Order&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The news that President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on select European countries, in order to apparently prise Greenland from the control of Denmark, was on one hand, the latest in a series of disruptive developments to emanate from the White House, and on the other, a grave escalation in the vandalization of the old, globalized world order, and the departure towards a harsher, mercantilist world where the idea of ‘spheres of influence’ is attractive to authoritarian leaders.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For Europe, this is another episode of casual bullying by the US president, occurring in the context of active undermining by Russia, and economic dumping by China. Europe is under siege.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As citizens we are deeply concerned, and as investors we ask how best to position portfolios in the context of increasingly disruptive geopolitics – note that this year we already have had an incursion into Venezuela (long-term implications for oil) and a politically motivated summons on the head of the Federal Reserve.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Markets Face New Vulnerabilities as Economic Conditions Shift&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In our view, geopolitics has in general not tended to impact asset prices during the era of globalization (for part of which quantitative easing helped to dull the pain of geopolitics).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now the financial and economic context has changed quite dramatically. Trade and financial relationships are breaking down, and supply chains have taken on a geopolitical tilt. The US and most other major developed economies have historically enormous debt loads and large deficits, and together with stubborn levels of inflation (affordability is the main political issue in the USA), this makes for a more fragile financial backdrop. Indeed, with Japanese and US bond yields rising recently, we suspect that markets are more vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, we examine geopolitical risks in terms of their first and second order macroeconomic effects, as well as their ability to upset specific asset classes. From that point, there are several ways to incorporate geopolitical risk in portfolios.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Positioning Portfolios for Rising Geopolitical Risk&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One method is through exposure to very specific sectors and stocks – with the defence sector being the most obvious current example, alongside cyber stocks and rare earth companies. These firms are found in public as well as in private (venture) markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A second method is to take a very long run view on what geopolitical risk may do to bond markets and currencies. As a historical case study, Turkey is a good example of a country where the undermining of institutions such as the judiciary and the central bank, has severely weakened the currency and bond markets. Many investors are starting to position for the same type of effect in the US, with the dollar still close to long term highs. At the same time, some currencies like the Swiss franc, tend to be safe havens in the context of geopolitical risk.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The central role of the US in financial markets (US equities make up over 65% of some equity benchmarks) and the role of the dollar as the reserve currency, in the context of a more disruptive foreign policy, make some hedging strategies more obvious. Tactically, hedging dollar exposure and trimming expensive US equities in portfolios are two strategies we have implemented, given the risk that the US becomes a less attractive trade and diplomatic partner.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Download this month's GMC Outlook:&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Unio-GMC-January-2026-Does-Geopolitics-Matter-1.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;&lt;strong&gt;Does Geopolitics Matter?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As always, Unio Wealth Management is keeping a close eye on the data and the decisions that shape our clients’ financial futures. If you want to learn more,&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Does Geopolitics Matter?

&lt;h2&gt;Arktika describes Europe’s changing security reality - NATO doubts, great‑power rivalry and the push for a European Defence Union.&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In 2007 two Russian mini-subs, Mir-1 and Mir-2, dived over 4,000 metres below the Arctic Circle to plant a titanium Russian flag, and so launched a primitive claim to the geological treasures at the top of the world. In highly Bond-esque fashion, the subs were supported by Mi-8 helicopters and the Rossiya, Russia’s most powerful nuclear-powered icebreaker.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The exploit was criticized by the then Canadian foreign minister as ‘15th&nbsp;century’ buccaneering but won the three Russian expedition leaders the medal of ‘Hero of the Russian Federation’ (they were accompanied by a Swedish scientist and an Australian adventurer).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The episode highlighted how the scramble for rare places (&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2021/02/27/the-scramble-for-rare-places/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jP07_a2Oq3mhP_BIs6W5BrRzDdZKJrTl2HUMMsS1SINf2eyMDsyoPEd-NtdjSMPVF9K6AUk-Hygi3yuXKh-5XrF1$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;we wrote about this in 2021&lt;/a&gt;) – the Arctic, Antarctic and outer space, are becoming strategic theatres in a world of great power rivalry. As much was emphasized in 2011 when then Secretary for State Hilary Clinton attended the Arctic Council meeting in Nuuk, a hitherto obscure club, to strengthen America’s commitment to the Arctic.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that context, it is no surprise that the Trump administration has discovered the strategic importance of Greenland, although there is not a single mention of it in the recent National Security Strategy document. The White House might have asked nicely and had its way to place listening stations and missile batteries in Greenland, but instead the President has banalised his office and his country and placed in jeopardy the most important geopolitical alliance of the past twenty years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In doing so he has proven my ‘Rule of Unravelling’ which states that in the post globalization era, all the constructive institutions and values of the globalized world will be stress-tested, in some cases to breaking point. For instance, the UN is invisible and impotent, and the most sacred of American institutions, the Federal Reserve, has come under a full-frontal attack in recent months. NATO it seems is next.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In most European capitals, especially those with large professional armies, there is considerable doubt that, under the Trump administration, the US will be a reliable ally. The immediate implication is to change the calculus that underpins any security guarantee for Ukraine, and indeed the process by which Ukraine will eventually become a member of the European Union.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Europe already significantly outstrips the US in terms of the extent to which it funds Ukraine (relative to GDP, Denmark is the biggest donor), but the intent of this aid will now have to become more lethal, in terms of what Ukraine can do with the arms provided to it, and craftier, in terms of the ways Ukraine can work with European armies to upset Russia’s war machine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;More broadly, there is also growing chatter that NATO is defunct, and will in effect be replaced by a European army (the Spanish foreign minister, amongst others, called for this last week).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A first step here might be an augmentation (and accelerated implementation) of the EU SAFE (Security Action for Europe) programme that allows member states to borrow to fund military equipment for joint use, especially where the bulk of that equipment is made in the EU. Canada is a member of the SAFE, and stupidly the EC made it all but impossible for the UK to join. But US arms manufacturers will have a hard time selling in Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An EU army could very easily be put together around the structures of existing cooperation agreements, and of course, the structures that have been put in place by NATO. Yet, there is still a considerable amount of work to do however on optimizing collaboration in areas like cyber warfare, intelligence sharing and logistics infrastructure (the EU aims to create a ‘Military Schengen’ by 2027).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The aim of such an army would be the defence of European interests and territories, which in practice takes aim at Russia, but can be broadly interpreted to also cover counter-terrorism, space and the deep seas. In the context of the spat over Greenland, the composition of such an army could encompass elements that are not traditionally classed as military activities, such as economic war, but that in a total war world, might be part of the greater arsenal.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Europe, the response to each crisis is to create a ‘Union’. In the same way that the euro-zone crisis led to the idea of Capital Markets Union, Europe’s ‘neo-con’ moment may produce a ‘Defence Union’, but unlike CMU, there is now a deadly sense of urgency. To my mind, it is still not at all clear that Europe’s political leaders are ready to command a large, capable military machine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a recent note &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/2026-year-of-the-riposte&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;‘Year of the Riposte’&nbsp;&lt;/a&gt;and in a talk at University College Cork with Prof. Andrew Cottey (‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/youtu.be/40useo9F3j0__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jP07_a2Oq3mhP_BIs6W5BrRzDdZKJrTl2HUMMsS1SINf2eyMDsyoPEd-NtdjSMPVF9K6AUk-Hygi3yuXKuf5AHjM$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Europe under Siege&lt;/a&gt;), I highlighted the litany of challenges that have been put to European leaders by the White House, China and Russia. In every case, the response has been a mixture of panic and a floundering search for compromise. Europe still dances to the tune set by Trump and others, as the Greenland fiasco has shown.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, in an underestimated speech at Davos, Friedrich Merz told the audience that ‘he gets it’ on defence and security. Yet, military procurement and recruitment are inefficient and sluggish.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Europe’s leaders have not yet passed the test set out in our recent ‘Riposte’ note ‘&lt;em&gt;the litmus test for Europe in 2026 is to stop reacting to the disorder that others sow, but to build a positive narrative around the EU, and critically to riposte in a meaningful way against its adversaries&lt;/em&gt;’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Soon they will have no choice. In 2019, Emmanuel Macron boldly stated that ‘NATO is brain dead’. It is now.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;talk to us.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Arktika

&lt;h1&gt;Feeling the ‘Blue Monday’ blues?&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your finances are a good place to start. Monday 19th January is traditionally known as &lt;em&gt;Blue Monday -&lt;/em&gt; often labelled the most depressing day of the year. But when it comes to your finances, there’s no need to feel blue. January is the perfect opportunity to take charge, build healthy habits, and set yourself up for financial confidence in 2026 and beyond. Wendy McKeown CFP® takes you through five simple tips to help you start the year on the right financial footing. A 4-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;1. Think about your life &amp; financial goals&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Writing things down makes them real. Jot down your short-, medium-, and long-term life goals, along with a realistic timeline for achieving them. Which goals will require financial support?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Retirement is a common focus, but many other life milestones can have significant financial implications from clearing your mortgage within a set timeframe to funding your children’s education. By clearly defining your goals and aligning them to your financial plan, you dramatically increase your likelihood of success.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;2. Create a budget and track your spending&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The &lt;strong&gt;50/30/20 rule&lt;/strong&gt; is a popular and simple way to think about managing your money. It helps you decide how much of your income should go toward essentials, lifestyle choices, and building long‑term financial security.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;-50% of income for needs&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These are the expenses you must pay to live and work.&nbsp;Examples include rent or mortgage; utilities (electricity, heating, water); groceries; transport to work; insurance and minimum debt repayments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;-30% for wants&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These are the ‘nice to haves’ that make life enjoyable but are optional. They include eating out; holidays; subscriptions (Spotify, Netflix, etc.); hobbies; gym and club memberships.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;-20% for Savings &amp; Financial Goods&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This portion helps you build financial security. It can include savings, investments, pension contributions, paying extra toward debts, and saving for a house deposit. This is the part that builds long-term wealth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Understanding where your money goes not only helps you manage spending but can also reveal opportunities to free up additional surplus income. This surplus can then be invested, saved, or redirected toward financial priorities that support your wellbeing and long-term security.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;3. Make the most of any surplus cash&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once you have good visibility of your finances, consider how to make your money work harder to help you achieve your goals. For example, look at your cash on deposit. Much of Ireland’s household savings sits in low yield, easy access accounts. Building a well-diversified investment portfolio may help your long-term savings grow more effectively.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you already contribute to a pension, are you maximising its benefits? Employer contributions are effectively free money, and pensions remain among the most tax efficient ways to save for retirement. Increasing your Additional Voluntary Contributions (AVCs) can make a meaningful difference - every extra €100 you contribute may cost you as little as €60* after tax relief.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;*Based on marginal tax relief of 40%.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;4. Empower yourself&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial understanding is empowering. It helps you make informed decisions when navigating major life choices such as moving home, investing in property, or planning for you and your family's future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Most of us aren’t taught personal finance at school, we learn it through experience. Start by reading the business pages at the weekend or listening to reputable financial podcasts. But one of the best ways to improve your financial literacy is by building a strong relationship with a trusted financial adviser. They will explain the rationale behind decisions, help you understand risks and opportunities, and ensure your plans align with your goals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;5. Seek expert advice&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Partnering with a professional financial adviser can significantly increase your financial confidence and reduce stress. An adviser will help you clarify your goals, explore your options, and develop a personalised financial plan tailored to your circumstances.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The right adviser becomes a long-term partner, someone who helps coordinate all aspects of your financial life so you can focus on what matters most, getting on with your life.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With ongoing review and support, your plan remains adaptable and resilient, even as life changes. Revisiting your plan regularly ensures you stay on track, make informed adjustments, and remain prepared for whatever curve balls life throws your way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Book your Complimentary Wealth Check&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Spend 30 minutes with an expert adviser and turn clarity into action. No complexity, just a simple conversation about you, your wealth and how to grow it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/wealthcheck&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Book your complimentary Wealth Check today.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;About the Author&nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wendy McKeown CFP® is head of Unio Wealth Management’s Financial Planning team and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Beat the 'Blue Monday' Blues by Taking Control of Your Finances

&lt;h1&gt;Persepolis to Protest: Iran’s Turbulent Journey from the Shah to Today&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In October 1971, a time when Mao ruled China, Brezhnev was in charge in the USSR and Nixon president of the USA, Maxim’s, the famous Parisian restaurant closed for two weeks so that staff could prepare the restaurant’s greatest order – the feast organised by the Shah of Iran to celebrate the 2500th anniversary of the establishment of the Persian empire by Cyrus the Great.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Shah’s celebration became known as the greatest party of all time (Life magazine called it ‘the party of the century’) and became highly controversial for its lavishness. For instance, nearly 300 red Mercedes were used to ferry guests around a large, tented city and in the end Maxim’s and other establishments sent some eighteen tonnes of food to Iran. Waiters had to open and taste all of the bottles of Chateau Lafite Rothschild 1945 for poison. Many of the world’s royal families attended, as did a range of social and political figures from Grace Kelly to Tito to Haile Selassie, to Imelda Marcos. It’s perhaps no surprise that this display of excess was followed a few years later by the Iranian Revolution.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The spectacle of the Shah’s party, his ties to foreign governments and the cruelty of his secret police and a drawn-out recession contributed to months of protests in the late 1970’s, which then led to the Revolution. One of the best accounts of the Revolution is a somewhat accidental one - Desmond Harney’s excellent eyewitness account of the revolution “The Priest and the King.” At the time, Harney worked in Tehran. He had been ready to leave Iran on vacation, but for work-related reasons he remained, and then witnessed the eruption of the revolution around him.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My other Revolution-related thought is of former Ayatollah Khomeini, who, on disembarking the Air France aircraft that took him back to Tehran on the outbreak of the revolution, was asked by ABC anchorman Peter Jennings how he felt about his return to Iran. “Nothing. I feel nothing,” was the alleged response. It gave a pointer as to the austere image Mr. Khomeini wanted to portray and of his cold single-mindedness. The fact that the man who translated Mr. Khomeini’s comments, was executed three years later, was another clue as to what would follow.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The regime that Khomeini created has outlasted many others – perhaps only the late Fidel Castro and especially so the late Queen Elizabeth II of England have seen as many US presidents, German chancellors, among others, pass on and off the world stage. While Iran has until recently been a dominant player in the Middle East from a geostrategic point of view, it has, to be polite, not been an economic success.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thus, in keeping with the template of revolutions, high prices, scarcity of food and fuel, and a broken economy, are triggering protests across Iran, that have become so vast, that expectations are growing that Iranians may eject their leadership.&nbsp;That moment may not be too far off, but the path to an Iran that benefits its people remains a difficult one.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Not only&nbsp;are&nbsp;its geriatric&nbsp;rulers&nbsp;stubbornly cut off from its people and the outside world,&nbsp;they have historically,&nbsp;to a worrying extent (this was especially the case under former prime minister Mahmoud Ahmadinejad),&nbsp;relied on heightened tension with&nbsp;the US,&nbsp;Israel and other ‘enemies’ for political oxygen.&nbsp;Also, economically, Iran is like Russia in that most of the assets and resources in the economy are held by a small number of people (IRG, business owners, clerics) who form a sclerotic elite around the theocrats. Breaking their hold on the economy will be difficult, even under a new regime.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Neither is regime change obvious. The name of the Shah’s son Reza Pahlavi is circulating widely (in the West) as a possible figurehead, but the story of the ‘greatest party’ and the memories of his brutality are at least two reasons why he will not lead a ‘new’ Iran. At the same time, it is not obvious what individuals or groups might replace the regime, if it came to that.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A further complication is that Iranians are highly distrustful of interventions from abroad, indeed some people joke that it is the only country in the world where MI6 is still considered to be a force to be reckoned with. Military intervention by the US or other states may not be welcome.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The EU is slightly less distrusted than the US and the UK, and it should take a more active stance – in terms of further sanctions, asylum for the hundreds of young people who have been jailed, organise the supply of communication technology into Iran (VPN’s, satellite technology), and potentially begin to plan to assist and shape a transition process.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Iran has been weakened economically by sanctions, humiliated by Israel and had its military capability enfeebled but sadly, the state still has an array of resources with which to repress its people.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My sense is that the brutal repression in Iran will continue now (with very little visible public support in the US and Europe), and the economy will weaken further. An opening may come when the Supreme Leader, Khamenei dies – he is&nbsp;86 and suffers from cancer. This event could provide the cover for a discrete but meaningful shift in policy, and the start of negotiations on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program, and the beginning of a more promising era.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great weekend ahead, Mike.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;talk to us.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Persepolis

&lt;h1&gt;Venezuela, Oil Wealth, and Global Leadership&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Benjamin Jowett is one of the prominent figures in the long history of Balliol College. Jowett, a scholar of Plato and university reformer, was Master of Balliol from 1870 to 1893, where one of his preoccupations was the production of upstanding young men who would then populate the civil service, and in particular who would be sent to ‘run’ India (Jowett favoured a thorough grounding in Greek and Latin as preparation for this task).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is an understatement to say that India suffered under British rule, during the colonial era (roughly 1700 to 1947) which was marked by the activities of the East India Company, India’s share of world GDP fell from 26% to 4% (after the Second World War). It is still recovering today.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To draw the obvious comparison with Venezuela, which is apparently now to be run from Washington in imperial style (will Marco Rubio be referred to as the Praefectus of Venezuela?), it at least does not have to worry about having its economy destroyed, the revolutionary socialist governments of the past twenty-five years have done a good job of that. Rubio is not made in the mould of Jowett’s scholars, but he speaks Spanish, which will be useful. A knowledge of finance will also be handy, to tackle the mountain of debt that Venezuela owes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a week where the American president has been scurrying around like a giddy child opening Pandora’s boxes, the strategy for Venezuela is not yet clear, and it could go very badly wrong, especially if the factions within the current Venezuelan regime start to disagree violently.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The apparent upside is Venezuela’s oil reserves and refining capacity, but this will take a long time and much capital to realise. Indeed, the process of extracting and monetising oil, and driving this wealth into an economy is something that few economies have mastered.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this regard, the idea of ‘Dutch disease’, a concept that initially referred to the effect of large gas finds on the Dutch economy, is well known, and colloquially, it describes the way the presence of natural resources can (negatively) skew the economic development of a country. Angola, which has been described as a ‘successful failed state’ for the way it has managed to extract and process oil, but does little else, is an example. Nigeria, Russia and of course Venezuela are other examples.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To their credit, the Gulf economies are good examples of states that have used the wealth generated by natural resources in a very ambitious way, whilst top of the league table are Canada, and Norway. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is the benchmark for many others, and it bears imagining what the UK could have achieved by channelling the wealth from North Sea oil and gas reserves into a sovereign wealth fund from the 1980’s onwards.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If there is a distinguishing factor across the relative success of the above nations it is the rule of law (and its associated values – policy clarity, strong institutions, and enlightened decision makers). The concept of the rule of law (I can recommend a book of that title by Tom Bingham, formerly Lord Chief Justice and Master of the Rolls (and like Jowett a Balliol alumni) should be clear to most readers, but its benefits are even more apparent when it is taken away. In this regard, a comment from a US oil company executive regarding investment in Venezuela (in the FT) to the effect that “&lt;em&gt;No one wants to go in there when a random f…g tweet can change the entire foreign policy of the country’&lt;/em&gt;&nbsp;is illustrative of the benefits of the rule of law. Similarly, threats by President Trump to curb the dividend policy of defence companies, and institutional ownership of housing also contribute to policy uncertainty.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;World institutions like the IMF and World Bank have produced tons of research demonstrating the link between the rule of law and growth, and stability. Yet the world that ushered in these institutions and globalization, is crumbling, vandalised by ‘world kings’ (Boris Johnson’s phrase) who act in an arbitrary way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The litmus test of this view will be the flow of capital. For the moment, the market view seems to be that ‘world kings’ get things done, and markets are reacting in kind. However, there are looming risks, notably the diverging values between the White House and Europe.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If world leaders were stupefied by the raid on Caracas, there was near hysteria in Europe at the suggestion by President Trump and his advisers that the US would annex Greenland. Though the initial reaction from politicians and commentators across Europe was perhaps overblown, there is a gulf between the American view of the White House’s foreign policy, and that of allies, and in the medium to long term this growing lack of alignment and trust will prove damaging.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;talk to us.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Praefectus

&lt;p&gt;So, 2025 is done and dusted. Despite the uncertainties we faced this time last year, the Irish economy has emerged in far better shape than many expected.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Tune in as Mike O'Sullivan, Chief Investment Officer at Unio Wealth Management, and economist Austin Hughes discuss&nbsp;what's in store for the Irish and global economy in 2026, in conversation with Joe Lynam on Newstalk's Breakfast Business.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.goloudplayer.com/episodes/what-can-the-global-economy-expe-YWE5YjJlYmQxYTQ4ZTU0MWI2ODg1OWUzYjA3OTk1MzY=&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Listen here. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As always, Unio is keeping a close eye on the data and the decisions that shape our clients’ financial futures.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/subscribe-to-the-view&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Subscribe to our updates.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Irish and Global Economy in 2026

&lt;h1&gt;2026 – Year of the Riposte?&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In foreign affairs, the great surprise of 2025, has not been tariffs or the geo-politicisation of AI, but the flipping of American foreign policy to apparently align with Russia, jettison the rule of law, tolerate China, and as our recent note underlined, rediscover Latin America - '&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/a-land-full-of-vibrancy-and-hope&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;A Land Full of Vibrancy and Hope&lt;/a&gt;'.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The big disappointment has been the slow, meek reaction of Europe to the above, the low point of which was the reference to Trump as ‘daddy’ by Mark Rutte, former Dutch prime minister and now NATO chief. Indeed,&nbsp;2025 might&nbsp;also&nbsp;be described as Europe’s ‘neo-con’ year, when its leaders were mugged by the reality of strategic competition, and more specifically the mendacity of Vladimir Putin and the election of Donald Trump.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are several strands to this. The first is the shock at the delivery of the message that America (the ‘White House’) is in effect dis-engaging from Europe and shattering the idea of the ‘West’. From the shambles of the Munich Security Conference to the communication of the National Security Strategy, there is still a shock felt across the continent to the change of direction that the White House is pursuing. A notable sign of this is how, in the post-Brexit world, Britain has become much closer to Europe on security and defence and is in the lead on strategy around Ukraine. A consequence of America’s ‘flip’ of this reaction, which I feel is not yet appreciated in the US, will be a much-reduced willingness to buy American goods and services.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In practical terms, the new geopolitical climate is revolutionising defence spending in Europe. The Baltic and Nordic states, as well as Poland, are all increasing defence budgets amidst warnings of a future confrontation with Russia. Most notably, Germany has cast aside its debt brake to target Eur 1trn in extra defence spending in the next decade, and the EU’s Eur 150bn loan facility has closed its loan round. Europe is now in effect in a three-year scramble to build defensive infrastructure, and there is also growing talk of more offensive (i.e. cyber) actions against Russia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Beyond the manner of the delivery of US diplomacy there is a mixture of anger and confusion in Europe at the stance of the White House. One is the apparent untethered nature of US diplomats like Steve Witkoff, his alleged closeness to Russia and the peace deal proposals he has concocted. This has caused concern because of the time, energy and political capital that European leaders have had to spend (with Ukraine) counteracting the US/Russia proposal.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A second source of ire is the apparent support by the White House for far-right parties in Europe – the AfD, Reform in the UK and the Rassemblement in France – all of whom have proven ties to Russia, all of whom hold 30% or more in opinion polls and all of whom are in direct opposition to governments in the three largest European countries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is also worth noting that the tension provoked by the White House has not brought Europe any closer to China – the perceived dumping of Chinese goods (electric vehicles for example) in Europe, and China’s support of Russia’s war in Ukraine are two major sticking points.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One relative bright spot on the horizon is that growth is beginning to pick up across Europe – bank lending is expanding, unemployment already low and lead indicators perking up. In that context it is likely that growth surprises to the upside next year. One great challenge, which has dropped from the policy limelight in the context of the focus on defence, is the Savings and Investment Union (old Capital Markets Union), and this is an essential part of the policy landscape in the coming year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Looking ahead, across individual countries, there is now a consensus view in the UK that Sir Keir Starmer could be toppled as prime minister by his Labour colleagues (Wes Streeting is favourite to take over, and another Blairite Yvette Cooper, cannot be ruled out either). A recent YouGov poll showed Starmer to be the most unpopular prime minister in the past fifty years, and Rachel Reeves is the most unpopular Chancellor. The only European leader who is further adrift in the opinion polls than Starmer is Emmanuel Macron.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Macron, it seems, has given up, and in France the political debate bypasses him and is steadfastly focused on the next presidential election which should take place in May 2027 though it is not impossible that an attempt is made to unseat him in 2026. The election to watch is in Hungary, where the pro-Russia/anti EU prime minister Viktor Orban is behind in the polls to Peter Magyar’s TISZA party. A return of Hungary to the pro-EU ‘fold’ would be welcome and would constitute a blow to Russia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, and in the context of the damp squib that was the last EU summit, the litmus test for Europe in 2026 is not to react to the disorder that others sow, but to build a positive narrative around the EU, and critically to riposte in a meaningful way to its adversaries.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week (and new year) ahead, Mike.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;talk to us.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

2026 – Year of the Riposte?

&lt;h1&gt;The Gold Narrative&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gold is a “Marmite” asset - loved by some and ignored by most, this special report argues that its recent rally reflects short-term trading effects and heightened geopolitical uncertainty rather than underlying fundamentals. A 4 minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The Marmite Metal&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are few assets like gold. The vast majority of investors do not hold it, nor do they have a sense of how its price behaves. However, there are others who are passionate about gold and hold large quantities of it in their portfolios. Finance theory suggests investors should hold up to 2% of gold in a portfolio, but our experience is that, in practice, either the vast majority of investors hold close to 0%, or a very small number of them have close to 10% in portfolios. To that end, gold is a ‘Marmite’ asset class because, like the Marmite spread, you either love it or hate it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It was once common to challenge graduates in interviews by asking them to explain the drivers of the gold price. Now, that question is more likely to focus on the drivers of Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s architects likely wanted it to behave like digital gold, but instead, it seems to trade like digital Nasdaq futures on steroids.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Typically, gold as a ‘rival’ for paper money is driven by changes in the monetary environment - namely, the value of the dollar and medium-term interest rates. For example, from the early 2000s onwards, the price of gold has moved inversely with the inflation-adjusted yield on ten-year U.S. bonds (rising bond yields tend to be bad for gold). Based on the rates market alone, gold’s fair value appears to be slightly north of USD 2,500. However, in 2022 an unusual dynamic emerged: inflation-adjusted bond yields rose, yet gold continued to climb and has not stopped since.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The strength of the gold price is curious because, in many quarters, demand for gold has been muted. According to the Banque de France, demand for gold is made up of jewellery (49%), central banks (23%), financial investors (21%), and the electronics sector (7%).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2 style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The Gold Narrative&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the past two years, Chinese and Indian households have been buying more gold, and before that, emerging economy central banks—notably Russia and South Africa—had been buyers, most probably to diversify out of dollars and euros given the risk of sanctions and asset confiscation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Financial holders of gold, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), have not been heavy buyers. Overall, though, commercial and financial demand for gold has not been dramatically strong in the past eighteen months.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;That still leaves a big chunk of gold’s outperformance unexplained. There are likely two factors at play.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is technical. In the first six months of 2025, there was a short squeeze in the gold market, which meant that a lot of financial actors (bullion banks and speculators) had short positions in gold (hoping that the price would go down) and now have to buy gold to cover loss-making positions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This short squeeze was exacerbated by a spike in demand for physical gold because of fears of tariffs on gold and silver (from Canada—home to many gold miners).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Gold in a Fractured Global Landscape&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second factor, which is more interesting and harder to calibrate, is geopolitics. Gold is a pure store of value —an asset to run to when the world is turned upside down. In a period where the global security architecture has been dismantled by the Trump administration, the reasons for holding gold are clear.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The disintegration of relations between the U.S. and China, the uncertainty caused by tariffs, and generally weak government finances across the G2 and G7 countries are just a couple of more detailed reasons to own gold. In that sense, it is a barometer of ‘Trump’s world,’ but also highly susceptible to his actions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The Unio View&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We do not have an official view on gold because it is a relatively small asset class, not widely held, and difficult to value. Also, many of the effects that drive gold are already expressed in our portfolios through fixed-income holdings and a partial hedge on our dollar-based equities.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At these levels, we are concerned that a good number of the factors that drove gold higher are petering out. It is increasingly held by retail investors (and through ETFs), and we would urge investors to think carefully about any potential drivers to the upside.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Download the full report here: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/The-Gold-Narrative-_Unio-Investments-December-2025.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Gold Narrative&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As always, Unio Wealth Management is keeping a close eye on the data and the decisions that shape our clients’ financial futures. If you want to learn more,&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Gold Narrative

&lt;h1&gt;Rise of the Machines - December Global Macro Council(GMC) Outlook&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This month’s Unio GMC Outlook explores the technologies shaping global markets in 2026, from AI-driven valuation models to quantum computing, robotics, new energy solutions and defence innovation. Overall, it points to a “rise of the machines”, with many of the best-performing smaller stocks concentrated in frontier technology segments. A 3-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As the end of year approaches we are looking forward, and notably did so in the &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/what-will-2026-bring-part-2&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;past two editions of the ‘Sunday View’&lt;/a&gt;. In our &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/disrupted&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;previous Global Macro Council meeting&lt;/a&gt;, we examined the macroeconomic outlook where in the context of an improving world economy (Europe could well surprise positively) we struck a note of caution for US equities as excessively high valuations tend to portend lower returns into the future. Amidst a debate on the nature and timing of a bubble in US equities, the timing of which is very hard to gauge, the more pertinent issue for investors is the profile of future returns for US equities, and the relative attractiveness of other markets. In this regard, the potential switch from ‘expensive’ markets like the US, to cheaper, more defensive sectors and markets will be the story of 2026.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A significant driver of the overvaluation is the performance of the AI centric Mag 7 stocks, most of which are now into trillion dollar territory in terms of market cap. Yet, in the interests of looking ahead, at this month’s GMC we examined some of the newer technologies of the future, that could fuel the trillion dollar firms of the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;New Energy&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At a time when large technology firms speak of data centres in the deep sea and, in outer space, partly because of grid blockages and data centre saturation in countries like Ireland, new forms of energy are in vogue – fuel cells and modular nuclear reactors are two that are prominent. Battery technology and storage are of course also important.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Robotics&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;South Korea and Japan are worth watching because they have been at the forefront of the decline in demographics that is gripping most countries now, and they are unique in their openness to the use of robotics in society, medical and elderly care. In the years ahead, robots will be more present in manual tasks – from picking fruit, building houses and in warehouse management to name a few, in addition to becoming more prevalent in education (teaching autistic children), healthcare (surgery) and in the defence sector.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Quantum Computing&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Today’s computers use bits that are either 1 or 0, solving problems step by step. Quantum computers use qubits, which act more like Schrödinger’s cat—able to be 1, 0, or both at once until measured. This allows them to explore many possibilities simultaneously and tackle problems far too complex for traditional machines. Europe and the US are investing heavily in quantum research, and a few listed firms are involved, though most remain in the prototype stage with no meaningful revenues. Their shares can therefore be volatile. Commercial applications are still years away, but if the technology develops as expected, quantum could become one of the most important and disruptive innovations of the next decade.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Defence&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland is starting to debate its neglected security and defence infrastructure, whilst other small states power ahead with innovation and aggressive spending. In the segment, innovation is occurring rapidly, notably in terms of unmanned vehicles (in the sea and air), cybersecurity and hypersonic missile technology. With the EU having just finalised its Eur 150 bn defence loan facility, this sector has significant scope to grow across Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Download this month's GMC Outlook:&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Unio-GMC-December-2025-Rise-of-the-Machines.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Rise of the Machines&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As always, Unio Wealth Management is keeping a close eye on the data and the decisions that shape our clients’ financial futures. If you want to learn more, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Rise of the Machines

&lt;h1&gt;'A Land Full of Vibrancy and Hope'&nbsp;&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Avid readers of the ‘Levelling’ book will know that some years ago, I wrote:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;&quot;Latin America remains part of the satellite region of the US pole. Sadly, it has been overlooked by Washington. The prime example of this neglect is Venezuela. The country is failing and in the grip of an underreported humanitarian crisis. Economically, this crisis may lead China to take a deeper role in Venezuela and in its oil production. Diplomatically, the lack of a comprehensive reaction from Washington brings to mind an article entitled “The Forgotten Relationship” that Jorge Castaneda published some years ago in Foreign Affairs in which he bemoaned the deteriorating relationship between Latin America and the United States.&quot;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Finally, my pleas are heard, and the White House is organizing a rescue (by gunboat) of Venezuela, and possibly much of Latin America.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While it is hard to know how the new engagement between the Trump administration and the fifth largest repository of oil reserves is going to play out, this administration is different to many of its predecessors in taking an active interest in Latin America – note the partisanship with regard to Brazil, generally good relations with Mexico, a chumminess with Milei and the likely support for the new president of Chile.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite very active backchannelling between the US military and the Venezuelan army the course that events might take is unclear, and laden with risks – the chaos of popular unrest in Venezuela, the risks that criminals in Venezuela and surrounding countries become involved (and strike in the US), or indeed the risk that other actors or countries use any regime change in Caracas to hurt the US, cannot be ruled out. Another risk is that some of Venezuela’s allies – Iran, China and Russia – become obstreperous, and dig in with Maduro and his cohorts, or that they use any change of government in Caracas to further their own ends. It is worth noting that only last week China launched a policy document entitled ‘Latin America and the Caribbean: A Land Full of Vibrancy and Hope’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is a significant risk of the Trump administration’s fetish for a spheres of influence motivated foreign policy. In the recent school boyish ‘National Security Strategy’, which has caused great anguish in the diplomatic parlours of Europe, the document refers to the ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For context, the Monroe Doctrine was likely the first coherent, muscular expression of American foreign policy – at the time it was aimed at keeping the Spanish and other pesky European powers out of Central and Southern America. Indeed, the dithering by the large European powers (notably France) over the long running Mercosur trade agreement, suggests that the European dare not go back to Latin America.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The NSS document gives a good deal of attention to Latin America, and this tilt will have the active support of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Like it or not, Latin America is now in Washington’s sphere.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, more generally, the establishment of a spheres of influence mindset in international relations may give the likes of Russia and China the sense that they may do as they wish in their own spheres of influence. In the same way that the invasion of Iraq, on the basis of flimsy evidence of weapons of mass destruction, apparently led Vladimir Putin to believe that the West was no longer respecting the rules of the international order, the ‘Trump Corollary’ strategy is a green light for bad policy actors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That would of course be bad news for Taiwan, and perhaps Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who all to some extent count on the notion of a US security guarantee for Taiwan. It may also prove confusing for the US military which, when not loitering off the coasts of Cuba and Venezuela, is organized around the concept of a grand battle in the South China Sea.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Beyond the obvious implications for Ukraine, there are plenty of other open questions – will China take the ‘Stans’ from Russia, and who gets Africa? Russian mercenaries have forced France out of at least seven countries and China has a hand in nearly every African economy. The cancellation of US AID is already having deadly consequences for human and animal life.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A world of spheres of influence might conjure the diplomacy of the Great Game, but it would leave many countries worse off, and the nondemocracies of the world free to abuse their military and economic power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A forlorn reminder of this was the jailing of Jimmy Lai, the Hong Kong democracy activist last week. Few Western governments were audible in protesting this act, save Britain, which used to count Hong Kong as part of its sphere of influence (Lai has British citizenship). The silent snuffling out of democracy in Hong Kong is the act that brought the curtain down on globalization in my view. An American spheres of influence foreign policy will sow further chaos.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;talk to us.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

A Land Full of Vibrancy and Hope

&lt;h1&gt;What Will 2026 Bring? Part 2 – Macro &amp; Geopolitical Themes&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Last week we released &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/what-will-2026-bring-part-1&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;the first five of our themes for the year ahead,&lt;/a&gt; where much of the focus was on artificial intelligence - and its potential impact on asset allocation, society, geopolitics and industry.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This week we focus on macro and geopolitical themes, which in the light of the US National Security Strategy document, are becoming vital for Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;#6&nbsp;Wall Street&nbsp;Retro&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the curious foibles of Donald Trump is his dislike of economic competitors. If readers care to watch,&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8wJc7vHcTs__;!!O22_8FOSssc!mqB2n3k_Oe4uNpshYb2u2gT0QRHvH4Vs55GDdCfC9xlbSUeQ7kDiWvZbAvP6iC8xjbpA9iD_J0RKqsq52Hz8AYTe$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;there are multiple videos of him in the 1980’s and 1990’s&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;castigating the role of Japan as an economic competitor of the US. That period was also marked by the rise of capital markets – as marked by the film ‘Wall Street’ and book ‘Barbarians at the Gate’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With Trump back in the White House, capital markets activity is building – merger activity is picking up, not just between companies but also business sales by private investment firms to industry. Cross-industry data suggest that takeover activity is picking up significantly, and in private markets, private equity deal making is enjoying a recovery. Other parts of the capital markets chain should also pick up – most notably IPOs and one of the tests for 2026 will be whether a string of large European fintech firms can come to market.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In recent days, the battle between Netflix and Paramount for Warner Brothers has been emblematic of some of the major takeover battles of capital markets history, and perhaps a harbinger of future activity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Future:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;While OpenAI for example is using acquisitions to build out an AI industrial structure, we do not yet have a landmark M&amp;A deal in the fashion of Vodafone-Mannesmann in 2000 or RBS’ acquisition spree in 2007. A sign of things to come are reports in the FT that AI giant Anthropic is preparing an IPO.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;An uptick in capital markets activity will be a boon for private markets asset managers, as it helps to free up capital. In equities, it may make value investing easier in the sense that cheaper, struggling firms are acquired, but the net effect may be to push equity valuations even higher.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Reading&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;William Cohen ‘The Last Tycoons’ (2007), William Burroughs ‘Barbarians at the Gate’&lt;/em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&nbsp;(1989)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Watch:&nbsp;&lt;em&gt;‘&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Wall Street’ (1987)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;#7&nbsp;Age of Debt&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the most terrifying economic statistics is that the world has never been as indebted- most of the large economies (Japan, China, USA, UK, France and Italy) or about 60% of world GDP, have debt to GDP ratios over 100%. In previous decades 60% was considered excessive!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The good news is that households and corporates are not carrying excess debt loads, and that world household wealth is close to USD 500 trillion. Also, economists have been warning about the risks of indebtedness for some time, and we have not experienced a crash – and apart from an inflation scare, bond markets have been reasonably well behaved. Indeed, we are guilty of thinking of indebtedness as a risk event, rather than an economic process.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That said, as we head towards 2030, the consequences - economic, financial and political - of fiscal deficits and debt loads become all the clearer.&nbsp;At one level, public indebtedness will lead to shifts in economic power – private investors will take on the strategic investment projects&nbsp;that governments cannot afford to do (Canadian pension funds are doing so in the UK already).&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the country level&nbsp;low debt countries like Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland and Norway will make up a small group of ‘safe’ countries that will accordingly enjoy greater economic power. At the same time,&nbsp;France, the UK and perhaps the US will spend the next fifteen years in the ‘Debtor’s Prison’&nbsp;where policy and politics become dominated by debt. The US and China are more interesting. The obvious response of the White House to indebtedness (it spends more on interest payments than defence) is to pursue a set of unorthodox policies that push the fiscal burden to allies (tariffs on Canada and military spending on Germany).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Future&lt;em&gt;:&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&nbsp;In markets, investors are already beginning to price some corporate bonds at yields below their sovereigns, and when credit markets do start to price risk&nbsp;large cash rich companies will&nbsp;be in an advantageous position, and in some cases can&nbsp;control more strategic assets, and the wealthy will find that governments need to court them rather than tax them.&nbsp;Instead of wealth taxes, expect governments to issue ‘Patriot’ bonds to wealthy families.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;The one country where this may not be the case is China, which is vastly indebted. Having studied the way some European economies become heavily indebted in the aftermath of the euro-zone crisis, the Communist party will throw entrepreneurs, the wealthy and corporates into the Debtors Prison, and let them pay their way out.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;High yield spreads in the US, Japanese bond yields and Chinese bank share prices are some of the key variables to watch.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read:&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Charles Dickens’ ‘Little Dorrit’ (1857) and Honoré de Balzac’s ‘Lost Illusions’ (1837-1843) and ‘Pére Goriot’(1835)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Watch:&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;A Christmas Carol (1984 version with George C Scott as&nbsp;Ebenezer Scrooge)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;#8 From Multipolarity to the Fourth Pole&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q4-2025-pitchbook-analyst-note-sovereign-ai-the-trillion-dollar-frontier&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;As the snippet on Sovereign AI &lt;/a&gt;suggests, strategic competition between the large economic blocs is the order of the day, and with globalization in the rear-view mirror the world order is evolving towards a multipolar form – one where the large zones do things increasingly differently.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the notion of multipolarity is framed around the US, China and Europe, there may well be a fourth pole in the making in the shape of India, the Gulf States and other players across the ‘region’ (which we could define as those countries&nbsp;within a&nbsp;five hour&nbsp;flight from the&nbsp;UAE,&nbsp;which includes some 2.4 billion people across Asia, Africa, Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are two elements that will determine whether a ‘Fourth Pole’ emerges – that this coherent group of countries has mass or scale, and that it increasingly has a method – or distinctive way of doing things (I recently developed this&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2025/12/04/the-forthcoming-fourth-pole-the-gulf-india-axis-will-lead-the-developing-world/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!mqB2n3k_Oe4uNpshYb2u2gT0QRHvH4Vs55GDdCfC9xlbSUeQ7kDiWvZbAvP6iC8xjbpA9iD_J0RKqsq52ABXipWS$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;theme in the UAE’s newspaper The National&lt;/a&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The notion of the ‘Fourth Pole’ is gathering pace around the very close relationship between the UAE and India (the very popular Hindu Temple in Abu Dhabi is just one sign), and the web of trade, finance and infrastructure deals they are engaging in across the region. This relationship may not ultimately become as deep as that of the EU countries, but it is beginning to look like a modern version of the ‘Coal and Steel’ community. The risk, however, is that they overbuild capacity in the face of a forthcoming economic shock or recession.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Future:&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;em&gt;The best indication that we had that the UAE is feeling both confident and more independent is that some&nbsp;well-connected government advisors&nbsp;have come up with an acronym for the west – W.E.N.A (Western Europe and North America).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Reading:&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/u.ae/en/about-the-uae/uae-in-the-future/uae-future__;!!O22_8FOSssc!mqB2n3k_Oe4uNpshYb2u2gT0QRHvH4Vs55GDdCfC9xlbSUeQ7kDiWvZbAvP6iC8xjbpA9iD_J0RKqsq52IV28mEQ$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;UAE Future Vision&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt;&nbsp;, Peter Hopkirk’s ‘The Great Game’ (1990)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;#9 Safe strategies in the Interregnum&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The process by which globalization unravels, and the multipolar world takes shape is going to be a long, noisy and uncertain one, which I term the ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/into-the-interregnum&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Interregnum&lt;/a&gt;’. It is an in-between phase, like the German idea of the ‘Zeitenwende’,&nbsp;characterized by noise, uncertainty, and multiple contests between the ‘old’ and the ‘new’ (finance is a good example with the emergence of ‘DeFi’ or decentralized finance).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Interregnum has at least three phrases. The first centres around the crises of the old, crumbling order notably in debt and democracy, the second phase around social, legal, and economic superstructures built around new technologies (AI, quantum) as well as the evolving contours of the multipolar world order, and then thirdly, the acceptance and coalescence of new world institutions, governments, and companies around this new world order.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Interregnum will be a period of breaking (down the imbalances that have built up with globalisation such as climate damage and debt) and making (new world institutions and the integration of technology into economies and societies). It will be a noisy, chaotic process and its success is not yet a given.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Future:&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;em&gt;From an investment point of view, the shifting geopolitical sands beg the question as to how exposed investors should be to US assets (See Theme #4 &lt;/em&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/what-will-2026-bring-part-1&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Expensives to Defensives&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt; in part one of this note) and what safe havens are available (small, advanced economy debt and corporate bonds perhaps, #7 above ‘Age of Debt’). There are other questions percolating up – previously specialized asset classes like agriculture, infrastructure and energy infrastructure will come more into the mainstream and become more ‘strategic’. Un-correlated assets or at least those that have much reduced correlation with equities will also be in demand.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/stable-genius&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Stablecoins&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;em&gt; is another area where many scratch their heads – is it a bona fide asset class or an electronic gambling chip? The bigger picture here is the ability of large financial institutions to evolve and adapt quickly to new technologies, whilst maintaining well managed balance sheets. The many ‘buy now pay later’ platforms will likely suffer here.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read:&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;The Fourth Turning by Neil Howe&lt;/em&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;(1997)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;#10 Europe – Right on the Brink&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Britain, France and Germany have never been as united, in misery that is. Each country is struggling to get growth going, the UK and France are indebted to the gills, and centrist governments in those countries are highly unpopular. In the political wings, new right-wing parties – the Rassemblement, AfD and Reform. All three lead on the issue of immigration, are less than clear on their economic plans and in their own special way, have close ties to Moscow.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The abiding lesson from Europe’s unpopular centrist governments is that if they do not confront difficult social and political issues, the public will tire of their mildness. In this sense, Europe’s liberals are being mugged by reality, and in the next year (at least in Germany and the UK) we are likely to see more dramatic attempts to combat illegal immigration, and to get economic growth going, with de-regulation emerging as the avenue through which this is achieved.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Future:&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;em&gt;The popular narrative is that the US innovates, China copies and Europe regulates. This may no longer be true, especially given the advances China is making in numerous technologies, and Europe may surprise in that a bonfire of regulations may mark 2026. European growth momentum is already better than that of the US, and a positive surprise could be in the offing&lt;/em&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read:&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Giuliano da Empoli ‘The Wizard of the Kremlin’(2022), ‘’L’Heure des Prédateurs’(2024).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Watch:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;&nbsp;The Great Beauty (2013), House of Cards (UK version) (1990), A Very British Coup (1988), and ‘La Conquête’(2011).&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;talk to us.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
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What will 2026 Bring? Part 2

&lt;h1&gt;What Will 2026 Bring? Unio’s Top Ten Themes – Part 1&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It’s that time of year when investors and economists release their prognostics for the year ahead, and eclectic and contrarian as we like to be, Unio brings you its top ten themes for 2026, with apologies for the length of the note. It’s really one to print out and read with a coffee, or even a stiff drink. To spare readers, and myself, I am releasing the first five themes now, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/what-will-2026-bring-part-2&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;and the following five next week&lt;/a&gt;.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Given the approach of the holidays I have also added in some pertinent film and book recommendations.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some of the ten themes we flag here are based on observations we have made during the year, and relate to trends that are now becoming clearer, chief amongst them is the imprint of AI on economies, geopolitics, and society.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We hesitate to make outright forecasts for GDP and rates for two reasons – first we expect growth to rise modestly during the year (though this is very much dependent on the capex cycle) and second, most of the interesting developments will take place at the sector level.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Enjoy and have a great week/year ahead!&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;#1 RAIlway Boom&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the late 1990’s as the dotcom bubble built, there was a polite debate amongst central bankers as to whether or not an asset price bubble was present in stock markets, most notably in dot.com related companies. The upshot of the debate was that even if the central bank could identify a bubble, there wasn’t much it could do to puncture the bubble (notwithstanding Alan Greenspan’s ‘irrational exuberance’ moment).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Today, central banking has changed, and so too have asset bubbles. There is a very broad narrative – from investors and economists – that we are indeed in a ‘bubble’, the only question is whether markets are in the foothills or the peak of the bubble. My sense is more ‘foothills’ than peak, largely because we are not quite yet seeing the folly and exuberant behaviour that was present in 2000 (I will share some stories in a future note).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Of course, the obvious danger of such a narrative is that for some but not all investors, it permits the belief that investors can continue to buy very expensive assets and later hand them off to ‘greater fools’, and the illusion that ultimately they are not the fools.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Every asset bubble needs an underlying logic, a belief that ‘this time it’s different’ and this is supplied in spades by the adoption and investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Signs that companies and households are deploying AI are manifold. This bubble is also different in the case that AI is producing revenues, as evidenced in the operating and market performance of large AI centric firms (the so called ‘magnificent seven’ companies who together now make up nearly 40% of the US stock market capitalization), but those earnings are predicated on the success of the AI business model and increasingly circular, in that investment by META becomes revenue for Nvidia and so on. A few of them are running down cash levels and issuing debt, but in general these firms still have strong balance sheets.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What is altogether less clear to me is how the economics of AI play out. While the adoption of AI is occurring more quickly than other technologies (the internet), competition will surely lower margins quickly. Chinese projects are a case in point, and some of the large US AI platforms, of which OpenAI is the leader, may find their economic models undercut.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Neither is the distribution of the productivity benefits that convincing – specialized firms and operators with access to proprietary data will be able to use AI to great benefit, along the lines of my ‘One Man and his Dog’ thesis. However, for most people, once some basic administrative tasks have been swallowed by AI applications, the positive economic impact on their lives might be more limited. Another consideration is that AI model technology is in the hands of a small number of investors, so the capital productivity benefits of it can also be limited.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Future: The AI boom or bubble is gathering momentum. Levels of capital investment (relative to GDP) are already surpassing those of prior bubbles, but have not yet attained the giddy heights reached during the railway bubble of the 1900’s. The railway bubble was one of the great asset bubbles – and helped build the crucial infrastructure of the first wave of globalization. In 1900, investment in railway infrastructure amounted to 6% of GDP, AI today is just over 1.3%. Also, at the turn of the 19th century nearly 60% of the market capitalization of the US stock market was made up of railway stocks (today it is 0.3%) which as a rule of thumb suggests we might see talk of a USD 10 trn valuation for Nvidia and S&amp;P500 at 10,000 as a ‘sell everything’ moment.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Read: Charles Kindleberger’s ‘Mania’s, Panics and Crashes’ (1978)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;#2 ‘Dalloway’&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the more memorable films I saw in 2025 is Dalloway, a French film starring the ever-excellent Cecile de France, which I hope will make its way to the Anglophone world. The object of the film is to show how pervasive and sometimes pernicious AI could become as a social force, and as we head into 2026, this is a theme that will become more important – in healthcare, labour markets and society – and more startlingly obvious.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To start with an alarming example, in 2021 the Swiss government’s Spiez Laboratory, one of whose specialisations is the study of deadly toxins and infectious diseases, is located right in the heart of Switzerland, performed an experiment where they deployed their artificial intelligence driven drug discovery platform called MegaSyn to investigate how it might perform if it were untethered from its usual parameters.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Like many AI platforms MegaSyn relies on a large database (in this case public databases of molecular structures and related bioactivity data) which it ordinarily uses to learn how to fasten together new molecular combinations to accelerate drug discovery. The rationale is that MegaSyn can avoid toxicity.&nbsp;In the Spiez experiment MegaSyn was left unconstrained by the need to produce good outcomes, and having run overnight, produced nearly 40,000 designs of potentially lethal bioweapon standard combinations (some as deadly as VX). It is an excellent example of machines, unconstrained by morality, producing very negative outcomes. It’s a chilling tale of the tail risks of AI.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;More commonly, AI will increasingly become part of our economic and social lives, and its effects will be more apparent.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In labour markets, there is already plenty of evidence to suggest that AI is curtailing hiring, markedly so in the case of graduates. When AI and robotics start to combine, they can have very positive outcomes (in education and elderly care) but in warfare (see the Netflix documentary ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsSzNOpr9cE&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Unknown Killer Robots&lt;/a&gt;’), fruit picking,&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68639533&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; warehouse management&lt;/a&gt; and even construction – to give a few examples, the blue collar labour force will feel the effect. This could set up a political reaction, and we might well see a Truth Social post from the White House to the effect that AI is not such a great idea and needs to be regulated.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A potential side-effect of the more negative effects of AI on the labour market could be a rise in anxiety and what social scientists call ‘anomie’. Much the same is becoming clear from the ways in which social media is skewing the sociability of humans (think of declining fertility rates, pub closures and the mental health effects of social media). As such, the social effects of AI may lead to ‘deaths of despair’. If this is grim, there is potentially very positive news in the use of AI to improve medical diagnoses in inexpensive ways, and the marginal impact of this in emerging countries can potentially be very significant (leading AI firm Anthropic is targeting science and healthcare in terms of applied AI solutions).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Future: The economic and social side-effects of AI will become clearer – many of them will be positive, but others will start to provoke a political reaction. While the EU has softened some of the restrictions in the EU AI Act, the interesting development is that at the state level in the US there is a growing desire to curb some of the effects of AI, a trend that is supported by case law. Moreover, some politicians in the US (Republican Josh Hawley is an example) are more vocal about the negative side-effects of AI on labour markets and education.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Read: Carl Benedikt Frey ‘The Technology Trap’(2019), and Robert Harris’ ‘The Fear Index’ (2011)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Watch: ‘Dalloway’.&nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;#3 AI Cold War&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A further facet of AI to keep an eye on is geopolitics, and as we leave 2025 behind, we will hear more about the notion of an AI Cold War or ‘Sovereign AI’ according to a&lt;a href=&quot;https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q4-2025-pitchbook-analyst-note-sovereign-ai-the-trillion-dollar-frontier&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; good Pitchbook note&lt;/a&gt;. This emerging idea refers to the strategic uses of AI, in the context of strategic competition between the ‘great’ powers. This race is already on, and the US is in the lead, with China chasing behind (my recent note on &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-plenum&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;‘The Plenum’&lt;/a&gt; details how China is prioritizing frontier technologies as the spearhead of its economic plan). Europe is very much in third place, with energy policy and half formed capital markets the biggest obstacle.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a ‘Cold War’ AI world, model development and deployment increasingly take a multipolar form, regulation is competitive, and technology firms are closely aligning with governments, forming symbiotic parts of national infrastructure, and national security considerations are embedded into investment processes and supply chain planning.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In time, governments may steer model developers towards new datasets if there is a strategic advantage to be gained. The recent launch of the ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/11/launching-the-genesis-mission/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Genesis Mission&lt;/a&gt;’ in the USA is a great example.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Future: From an investment point of view, we expect private equity/credit to become an enabler of this trend, and for their part governments will open up the flow of pension capital to private asset classes. Governments may also become more active investors – either in steering merger and consolidation activity, or in the fashion of the Trump administration, taking stakes in firms that are judged to be strategic. Military uses of AI will become more commonplace, and we will slowly learn more about the effects of this on navigation systems, genetics, finance and social media, to name a few.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Read: ‘Breakneck’, by Dan Wang (2025), ‘Chip Wars’ by Chris Miller (2022)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Watch: Dr Strangelove (1964)&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;#4 Expensives to Defensives&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An age-old joke goes that when asking for directions, the traveller is told ‘I wouldn’t start from here’. It is much the same for investors looking into 2026, though less so tactical traders who believe that they can time the ebbs and flows of the emerging stock market bubble.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The dilemma for asset allocators is that with the US stock market making up some 60% plus (depending on the benchmark) of world market capitalization, and trading at near record valuation multiples (price to earnings or price to long term earnings (Shiller PE), or even market capitalization to GDP (Buffet Indicator), the exposure to American assets is increasingly expensive and risky.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, a model that combines monetary, business cycle and market valuation indicators, suggests that from this point onwards, returns in the next couple of years for US equities will be close to zero. Add to that the fact that the dollar still looks expensive and corporate bond (and high yield) spreads are very narrow, and the conundrum for allocators next year will be considerable.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As we end the year, volumes have been very low and speculative activity (options) very high, and this points to high levels of volatility through 2026, and remarkably, a few of the large bank CEOs have warned of significant market drawdowns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Future: We expect to see investors put more money to work in cheaper defensive sectors – Staples and Healthcare for example, and for capital to flow to other regions beyond the US. In addition, in the next five years, if multiple surveys of family offices and pensions are to be taken at face value, we expect private assets to make up a much more significant proportion of investment portfolios.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Read: Benjamin Graham ‘The intelligent Investor’ (1949)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Watch: ‘Margin Call’(2011), ‘The Big Short’(2015)&nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;#5 K Shaped economy&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the context of a political-economic climate in the US where good, regular economic data is hard to come by, commentary from industry leaders as they report earnings is providing some fascinating insights. For example, some weeks ago, Chipotle, the burrito chain, reported a surprise drop in revenues because two key consumer groups, households earning USD 100k or less, and younger customers (24-35 years old) are cutting back discretionary spending, even on fast food.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A range of firms with similar client bases underline this trend – car manufacturers report that sales of expensive, large vehicles are strong, but that lower income customers are preferring smaller, fuel-efficient models. McDonalds is revising its ‘extra value meal’ option, and credit card providers like Amex report very different types of activity from rising card balances and distress in the lower segments, to robust spending in its ‘Platinum’ category.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Economists are blithely referring to this phenomenon as the ‘K-shaped’ economy, whistling past the graveyard of economic history that portends revolutions are made of such obvious divergences in fortune.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now all of the talk is of a K shaped economy – which refers to multiple divergences between the price insensitive wealthy and those in economic precarity who are sensitive to inflation, a services sector that is either shedding jobs and holding back from hiring compared to the upper echelons of the technology and finance industries where unprecedented levels of wealth are being created.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are two other effects ongoing. The first is the economic effect of AI focused capital expenditure (across the energy, logistics and technology sectors). The second, more important trend is a mangling of business cycles, such that few of them are synchronized across geographies, or between the real and financial economies (German chemicals is in the doldrums but German finance is on an upswing).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Yet, a better diagnosis might be the ‘Marxist’ economy – one where the owners of capital and the source of labour are at odds.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Future: In the US, the top 10% of the population own 87% of stocks and 84% of private businesses, according to data from the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, we have previously written about the rise of economic precarity in &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-road-to-serfdom&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Road to Serfdom&lt;/a&gt;. So, whilst it is a new observation amongst the commentariat, the diverging fortunes of capital and labour should start to trouble policymakers in 2026. Expect this to be a headline policy issue next year – the White House is already paring back some tariffs, and in Europe governments compete to either tax the wealthy (France and the UK) or to lure them (Italy).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Read: the NBER Business Cycle website&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Watch: Falling Down (1993)&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;talk to us.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
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What will 2026 bring? Part 1

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Welcome to the first in our Unio SME Series: Open, honest conversations with business owners.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;iframe frameborder=&quot;0&quot; scrolling=&quot;auto&quot; allowfullscreen=&quot;true&quot; src=&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/CjW8dZDuGH4?showinfo=0&quot; height=&quot;315px&quot; width=&quot;560px&quot;&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our goal is simple: to uncover the real stories behind success: what shapes the journey, how challenges are overcome, and what wealth, in every sense, means to our guests.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What does wealth mean when you’ve lived it all - from abundance to starting over? In this first episode, Elizabeth Byrne, Private Client Adviser at Unio Wealth Management, speaks with Dayna Caceres, Founder and CEO at Distinctions Consulting and VP of Programmes at the Professional Women’s Network, Dublin. Together, they explore resilience, wealth as freedom, and why, for business owners, community and good advice matter - you don’t have to do it all on your own.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A sincere thank you to our guest, Dayna Caceres, for being so generous with her time and insights. Her openness and wisdom made this first Unio SME conversation truly impactful.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This conversation covers:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Early independence and grit, how life experience shapes leadership.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Choosing entrepreneurship and designing a business for recurring income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The shift from “doing it all myself” to building a strong community.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Why good advice, and relationships are everything for women in business and why you should be intentional about building ‘your tribe’&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Why success isn’t just a milestone; it’s a system - recurring value, cash flow, and long-term planning.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-How true leadership isn’t just about driving profits, it’s about living your values and creating impact beyond the boardroom.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About our Host &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Elizabeth Byrne, CFP® is a private client adviser in Unio Wealth Management’s SME team and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth clients on how they can achieve their financial goals.&nbsp;Elizabeth may be contacted &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Elizabeth%20Byrne&amp;segment=Business%20Owners&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Get in touch &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio is a wealth management firm built around you, delivering personal service, trusted advice, and direct access to our experienced advice team. We work with individuals and businesses to create long-term, strategic plans that guard, guide, and grow your wealth. If you are an SME owner looking to turn business success into lasting personal wealth, get in touch to book your confidential consultation:&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Let's Talk | Unio Wealth Management&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pictured L-R: Elizabeth Byrne, Private Client Adviser at Unio Wealth Management, Dayna Caceres, Founder and CEO at Distinctions Consulting and VP of Programmes at the Professional Women’s Network, Dublin.&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MC76BIP2KLIJAX5LDQ362XRPTC3M?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Elizabeth Byrne, Private Client Adviser at Unio Wealth Management, Dayna Caceres, Founder and Managing Director of Distinctions and VP Programmes at the Professional Women’s Network Dublin.&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YS700000iLOPT&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MC76BIP2KLIJAX5LDQ362XRPTC3M&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;thumbnail_Unio Interview Still.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Unio SME Series Launches

&lt;h1&gt;The Fourth Pole: How Gulf States and India Are Shaping a New Multipolar World&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Debates on the state of the world tend to focus too much on ‘old powers’ – Europe, the US and China and the transition from a globalised world to a multipolar one that these regions are provoking will be a chaotic and at times ugly one.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A different, more positive element of the new world order might well be what in previous notes I have called the ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2023/09/15/the-fourth-pole/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!itsEUx52wCcFd5_Z8HGgEglfa18hrhafvN2_2Xm-7S4kH38Oe_EgK6DQnimXSlxJJ4aIFoGuGi50m-q6R7LsHELo$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Fourth Pole’&lt;/a&gt;, a geo-economic region centred around small, fast-growing states in the UAE and Qatar, the other Gulf states, encompassing Saudi Arabia, and stretching to parts of India, its vast diaspora, and beyond. A visit there last week gave me a chance to compare notes against what I saw on a longer visit to the region this time last year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Individually, many of these states top the league tables for growth, are emerging as active investors in and consumers of new technologies and are arguably more geopolitically busy than the large European countries. What is new is that trade and infrastructure deals, migration and the consequences of great power competition are creating the conditions for a regional locus, or ‘pole’, of economic, financial and soft power.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Such a ‘pole’ needs to have at least two criteria – a coordinated economic mass and a coherent method, or way of doing things. For example, Europe, the US and China have ‘mass’ economically and financially, diplomatically (even Europe is increasingly coordinated). They all have increasingly focused industrial strategies and are military powers. By comparison, Russia is not a ‘pole’ as it is not significant economically, industrially and has a toxic foreign policy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second and essential element of multipolarity is that each pole has a defined ‘method’ or way of doing things – Europe is a liberal social democracy with increasingly coordinated policies, China has the ‘China Dream’ social contract between the Chinese people and the communist party while the US is making itself great, again. Each one has a distinctly different approach to technology, the internet and lately, to regulating AI.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, in terms of mass and method, the idea of the ‘Fourth Pole’ is a nascent one. India and Saudi Arabia, to take two of the Fourth Pole players, are meaningful economically though much less so as financial players (though Saudi Arabia’s reserves and the investment capacity of the UAE and Qatar give some clout), and apart from India’s nuclear arsenal are not in the top division of battle-ready militaries.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Building ‘mass’ would take time and investment and would demand a coherence in strategy between very disparate countries, and currently there are few policy areas where there is policy collaboration at a detailed and well-coordinated level. The India to GCC/Saudi Arabia corridor is yet very different in terms of its cultures and development models and is very far from a common method.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is something that can arrive after at least forty years of close trade and cooperation, and in my view will be highly influenced by the Indian diaspora in countries as diverse as Kenya to Dubai. For the moment, the old European Coal and Steel Community (i.e. cooperation on economic infrastructure) is a good benchmark, though there are several factors that militate towards quicker cooperation between the Gulf states and their economic neighbours.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is attitude. On a lengthy trip to the UAE last year, I noticed a change in attitude on the part of policymakers to the West, which they label as W.E.N.A (Western Europe North America) and I took this to imply a more independent and self-confident view. There is a growing sense of independence in the region to go its own way in terms of how it makes policy (as opposed to being a policy taker from the US and the EU). This is evident in finance, infrastructure, labour markets and trade. On trade specifically, the UAE must be geopolitically ambidextrous in how it builds relationships with the US and China, though when it comes to technology, the sense is that it is very much plugged into America&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another attitudinal aspect is a form of economic agnosticism. Whilst the ‘great’ powers are busy cutting off access to each other’s supply chains, trade through the Gulf is less encumbered by geopolitics. Moreover, there are signs that the tariff war and great power rivalry have helped activity in ports such as Dubai.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another factor is demographics and development economics. There is a great deal of talk about the global south – effectively the fast growing, populous countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. It does their individual cultures little justice to group them together, and the idea of the ‘global south’ vastly overestimates the ability of these countries to act as a single entity. The primary challenge for the ‘global south’ countries is to find ways to increase the level of trade between themselves and in the long run it may be that the India-KSA-UAE corridor becomes the organizing locus for the global south.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The rise of individual Gulf states over the past thirty years has proven their singular ambitions and visions. As the world becomes more complicated, they will find that acting together brings growing benefits and here, there are at least two challenges.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is to steward a lasting peace around Palestine, that breeds a sense of security and justice across the region and sets the scene for a broader economic uplift. The second, potentially using the GCC framework, is to more actively coordinate development plans and position against the risk that economic development across the region becomes too correlated.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If these succeed, then the basis of the ‘Fourth Pole’, one of the positive surprises of the post globalisation will be set in place.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2025/12/04/the-forthcoming-fourth-pole-the-gulf-india-axis-will-lead-the-developing-world/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Further reading on The Fourth Pole&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;talk to us.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Fourth Pole

&lt;p&gt;Unio is proud to announce a new charity partnership with &lt;strong&gt;Barretstown&lt;/strong&gt;, who provide specially designed therapeutic camps and programmes for children and their families affected by cancer and other serious illnesses. These programmes help restore the magic of childhood for those who need it most.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As part of this partnership, Unio is supporting &lt;strong&gt;Barretstown’s Enchanted Forest, &lt;/strong&gt;a sustainable initiative delivered in conjunction with the Tree Council of Ireland. Through this programme, trees are planted within the Enchanted Forest, creating a lasting, environmentally positive contribution to the Barretstown grounds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We look forward to working with the amazing team at Barretstown, to celebrate and support the incredible work they do for children and families.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This initiative allows Unio to contribute to Barretstown’s mission in a meaningful and sustainable way, supporting both their programmes and the beautiful setting in which they take place.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;“Barretstown provides invaluable support to families, and the Enchanted Forest is a meaningful symbol of that work. We’re pleased to support an initiative that is both impactful and enduring, and we look forward to donating trees in the forest as new clients join Unio as a symbol of thanks and a way of reflecting our shared values of care, sustainability and making a positive difference”&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;— Ian Brady, CEO, Unio&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Pictured L-R at Barretstown, Richard White, Head of Institutional Business, Unio, Dee Ahearn, CEO, Barretstown, Ian Brady, CEO, Unio and Noreen Stokes, Private Client Director, Unio.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Unio Announces New Partnership Supporting Barretstown’s Enchanted Forest

&lt;p&gt;Readers of the ‘Sunday View’ might be looking for a destination to visit during the Christmas holidays, and if so, I want to&nbsp;recommend Caherdaniel in Kerry, with its gorgeous, long beach, woodlands and often – blue skies. It is also the home of one of Ireland’s best pubs – the Blind Piper.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Many of you will know that&nbsp;it is most famous for Derrynane House, the home of Daniel O’Connell&nbsp;(born not too far away in Cahersiveen)– one of the grand figures of Irish history – a man that King George IV called the ‘uncrowned king of Ireland’ – also known as the Liberator or Emancipator.&nbsp;Derrynane&nbsp;is also famous as&nbsp;the place where President De Gaulle spent six weeks after his resignation in 1969 – and he may well have been inspired by a biography of O’Connell, written by his maternal grandmother Josephine, which he read as a child.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My linking of De Gaulle and O’Connell is motivated by the fact that this year is the 250th&nbsp;anniversary of O’Connell’s birth, and last week I moderated a debate on democracy and European politics between a group of Irish and French experts in Paris.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In trying to explain O’Connell to a&nbsp;French&nbsp;audience today&nbsp;(not to mention the Irish audience – where he is somewhat forgotten), three defining traits stand out.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first one I would highlight is that he was European&nbsp;in his outlook. I frequently visit Caherdaniel, and the recurring thought is of O’Connell setting off in his carriage to travel Ireland or to go to Westminster&nbsp;&nbsp;or further to Rome – or back to France, where he was educated.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The second element that is interesting –&nbsp;was&nbsp;his internationalism – Marx, Dickens, Balzac, Bismarck, and John Quincy Adams in the US, all had something to say about O’Connell – and he was ardent in his support for other causes – against slavery in the US and, when he first took his seat in Westminster – he campaigned for the emancipation of the British Jews.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The third element we note about him is his political method – he spoke at enormous mass rallies – one at the&nbsp;Hill of Tara is said to have attracted 1 million people, he was an orator and a skilled political organiser, but also someone who believed in peaceful protest – perhaps because of what he witnessed in France during the Revolution.&nbsp;&nbsp;In today’s terms, O’Connell was one of the first liberal democrats, a defender of civil rights, and in some respects a beacon for liberal democracy in Europe and England – he was a founder of the Reform Club in London.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The point of raising his example today, beyond the simple fact of his anniversary, is to make the link with last week’s note on the changing of the political guard in the US (&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2025/11/14/change-of-guard/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!iDlBQ_ZSnqCI5DLUqVpH-M29-S17-SnDm38wS7OUzgaxVv0LeU0WJA9BEqQBACEGljarvFgEPFEsprMDRSNm17Cc$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Change of Guard&lt;/a&gt;) and the grim backdrop that Western democracies face in terms of the rise of populism, vexatious impact of social media on public life and the vandalisation of Europe by countries like Russia. For example, in the past week a train line in Poland was sabotaged, and controversially the head of the French army warned people to be ‘ready to lose their children’ in a war.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Three strands that came out of the debate on modern democracies, under the shadow of O’Connell, that are worthwhile flagging.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first, is to find ways of breaking the polarization of political arguments, or the phenomenon where political debates quickly become corralled into opposing camps, leaving little room for considered debate. Arguably, politicians are part of this problem given the tendency of governments to constantly spin news developments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Ironically, the second strand is a demand from politicians (in this case both French and Irish deputies) to curb abuse through social media, in particular its use as a channel to threaten public representatives. Every political figure I know has suffered abuse on social media, of a kind that if it were repeated in person, would most certainly result in a criminal conviction. The question then is whether and when politicians are ready to take a tougher stance with online abuse.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A final thought that relates directly to O’Connell is whether today’s mild-mannered political leaders – I am thinking of the likes of Friedrich Merz and Sir Keir Starmer – should be more enthusiastically populist in pushing their centrist causes. O’Connell was a complicated character and as stated a clever speaker and was a master in getting the ‘crowd’ on his side. The thought experiment is that democratic leaders ditch their anodyne, carefully crafted communications and let their oratorical skills off the leash. It would make a nice change and might well make the role of politician less frustrating.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Liberator

&lt;h1&gt;Global Disruption, Market Resilience&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As 2025 draws to a close, one striking theme stands out: despite a year of profound disruption, the global economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. This month’s Global Macro Council (GMC) Outlook explores the forces shaping investor sentiment and what the future may hold for global equities. A 3 minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As we approach the end of 2025 and look back on the year that has passed, the remarkable feature is how ‘disrupted’ the world economy has been, yet how resilient it has nonetheless proven to be.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Disruption has come in many forms.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, following the election of Donald Trump, indicators of economic policy uncertainty spiked to close to all-time highs as he launched his tariff policy in early April. Tariffs, and the impact of a curb on immigrants in the US have dominated the economic news, and whilst the tariff policy has garnered close to USD 30bn per month for the US government, there is mounting evidence that it has edged up prices for US consumers, with growing political consequences amidst a debate over a K-shaped economy (holders of capital do well whilst labour is suffering).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Second, the impact of AI on economies and societies is becoming real. Since the launch of ChatGPT, share prices of AI centric firms like Nvidia have surged, and now the real world is catching up in terms of the impact of AI on healthcare, employment, defence and science becoming manifest. We are likely in the early innings of the disruptive effect of AI on economies, and opinion is still divided between the great boost to productivity or a cataclysmic takeover of society by AI – as a recent paper by the&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/0624__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gvkkVBCRpxNPw6xml9V5ap54zS83kK7VfN0N0q56g-gzlAQXxi_ar6wt9UbXT9InlAxZ58bD1y3GssLA1jVKG5lHmek$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;set out.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If that is not disruptive enough, consider the rising role of geopolitics as a factor for investors. In the past year the intense strategic competition between China and the US, Russia’s brutality towards Ukraine and its provocations of Europe, as well as regional hotspots in Venezuela and Africa, have all come into focus. The rise in geopolitical tensions has real world implications notably in the sharp rise in defence spending, and in the case of Germany, a historic change to its debt brake and ramp up in defence spending.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite all of this, equity markets look resilient, as do earnings. Notwithstanding the impact of an AI driven earnings boon for the large tech firms, broad earnings have been positive, and in Europe key macro indicators like bank lending, lead indicators and company profits, have improved.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;From an investment point of view, this resilience of earnings is encouraging, but the dilemma is that market valuations have raced ahead, and in the US are now at record highs. On a range of valuation indicators (price to earnings, price to book, dividend yield etc) US equities are at the top of historic valuation ranges, and now tipping the highs seen in the&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/dot.com__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gvkkVBCRpxNPw6xml9V5ap54zS83kK7VfN0N0q56g-gzlAQXxi_ar6wt9UbXT9InlAxZ58bD1y3GssLA1jVKiasyKMY$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;dot.com&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;bubble, 1890’s and 1920’s, for example.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the very least this should sound a note of caution as excessively high valuations tend to portend lower returns into the future. Amidst a debate on the nature and timing of a bubble in US equities, the timing of which is very hard to gauge, the more pertinent issue for investors is the profile of future returns for US equites, and the relative attractiveness of other markets. In this regard, the potential switch from ‘expensive’ markets like the US, to cheaper, more defensive sectors and markets could be the more compelling story of 2026.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Download this month's GMC Outlook: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Unio-GMC-Outlook-November-2025-Disrupted.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Disrupted&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As always, Unio Wealth Management is keeping a close eye on the data and the decisions that shape our clients’ financial futures. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Disrupted

&lt;h1&gt;Mamdani’s Mayoral Win, Cheney’s Legacy &amp; the Democrats’ Future&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I was at the Knicks game (against Orlando Magic) at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night, which offered a glimpse of iconic New York, with Spike Lee courtside to underline the fact.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Madison Square Garden was probably not the place to look for a reaction to Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral election victory, though across Manhattan I found many people exercised about the event (as well as the recent Epstein release).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having last been in New York only two months ago, it has certainly not become less expensive, and to channel last week’s note &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/pear-shaped&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;(‘Pear-shaped’)&lt;/a&gt; on the K-Shaped economy that described how the holders of capital are doing well and labour is doing poorly, Mamdani is the beneficiary of this Marxian contrast, and he has the rhetoric to go with it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mamdani had the right level of charisma, decent organization and the perfect context. He may struggle as mayor, notably in terms of his authority with the police and emergency services, his economic acumen and moreover, in curbing the big picture macro issues that are beyond his control, as well as a hostile federal government.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Yet, for all the attention that his election has garnered, I do not think he is the only story in American politics (Seattle’s mayoral election also deserves attention for example), nor do I think he is the answer to the Democrats’ losing ways, and there are a number of other events to consider.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is the death of Dick Cheney, a day before Mamdani was elected. Cheney, or ‘Angler’ to give him his secret service codename (there is a good book on Cheney of that title, by Barton Gellman), is now an important reference point in American public life.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Cheney embodied the idea of someone who served the public and private sectors (almost at the same time), and who spent his life embedded in the industrial-defence-political complex. He had served several Republican presidents as a foreign policy and defence hawk, and when George W Bush asked him to lead the search for a vice-presidential candidate, Cheney could find no-one better than himself, and thus spent eight years as ‘W’ Bush’s vice president, with the suspicion being that it was he who called the shots (literally).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the time, Cheney was regarded as a right-wing hawk, but as American politics changed, he and his courageous daughter Liz (also generally right wing) were two of very few Republicans who had consistently stood up to, and repeatedly condemned Donald Trump. Amongst other policies, Cheney as a Cold War warrior must have found it very difficult to understand and stomach the approach of the current White House to Russia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That Cheney ended his life as a critic of Trump is a sign of how far the MAGA crowd have taken the Republican party. In itself, that should not mean that the Democrats fight the next elections from the far-left, as the result in New York hinted.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, two interesting results, the victories of Mikie Sherrill (now New Jersey’s first female Democratic governor) and Abigail Spanberger (Virginia’s first female governor) suggest that the Democrats can do well in the centre, with credible candidates. Both are role models - Sherrill is a Naval Academy graduate, flew helicopters and is the mother of four children, while Spanberger has three children and worked as a CIA agent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the current context, it is encouraging to see these very capable female candidates succeed, and even Marjorie Taylor Greene is displaying a form of reckless courage in veering away from the White House script.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whilst the Democrat party is in disarray and dispute (following the vote to end the government shutdown), it is in need of a change of guard, notably so given the announcement that Nancy Pelosi will retire from public life. In that respect, serious candidates of the calibre of Sherrill will note three developments that might encourage the sense that a ‘change of guard’ is in the offing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, the president’s entanglement with Jeffrey Epstein is sapping his patience and political capital. Secondly, national security will become a more real issue as it is very clear now that China and Russia have only malign intentions towards the West, despite the fantasies of pseudo-Kissingerians in Washington. Third, and most importantly, the direction and timbre of the economy is the key political issue, with affordability at the top of the docket.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Change of Guard

&lt;h1&gt;Pear-Shaped: The K-Shaped Economy and America's Diverging Fortunes&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the context of a political-economic climate in the US where good, regular economic data is hard to come by, commentary from industry leaders as they report earnings, is providing some fascinating insights. Chipotle, the burrito chain, reported a surprise drop in revenues because two key consumer groups, households earning USD 100k or less, and younger customers (24-35 years old) are cutting back discretionary spending, even on fast food.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A range of firms with similar client bases underline this trend – car manufacturers report that sales of expensive, large vehicles are strong, but that lower income customers are preferring smaller, fuel-efficient models. McDonalds is revising its ‘extra value meal’ option, and credit card providers like Amex report very different types of activity from rising card balances and distress in the lower segments, to robust spending in its ‘Platinum’ category. In keeping with this last observation, a headline in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal ran ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/new-york-city-wealth-e0ef94dc?mod=e2tw__;!!O22_8FOSssc!g2yI14jRZHoor21SDqktcZR-g8YqcUTgPSfP3PaBexacyVCe_PUuUGis9ubzCH4RqK7Mpgi_GwnFYtFMCLujebu8$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;big spenders keeping the party going’&lt;/a&gt;, while commentary from Federal Reserve board member Michael Barr referred to a two tier economy, where the wealthy are thriving.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Economists are blithely referring to this phenomenon as the ‘K-shaped’ economy, whistling past the graveyard of economic history that portends that revolutions are made of such obvious divergences in fortune. Indeed, it is a habit of economists that when they&nbsp;are unsure of the path of the business cycle, they reach for the alphabet. For example, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, analysts pondered whether we might see a V, W or U-shaped recovery.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now all of the talk is of a K shaped economy – which refers to multiple divergences between the price insensitive wealthy and those in economic precarity who are sensitive to inflation (this may help explain the election of Zohran Mamdani, but more on that next week), a services sector that is either shedding jobs and holding back from hiring compared to the upper echelons of the technology and finance industries where unprecedented levels of wealth are being created.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are two other effects ongoing. The first is the economic effect of AI focused capital expenditure (across the energy, logistics and technology sectors). The second, more important trend is a mangling of business cycles, such that few of them are synchronized across geographies, or between the real and financial economies (German chemicals is in the doldrums but German finance is on an upswing).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Yet, granted that we have just witnessed the&nbsp;highest number of job cuts in an October since 2003 in the US, set against the fact that the stock market hit all-time highs (and valuation highs) in October, and better diagnosis might be the ‘Marxist’ economy – one where the owners of capital and the source of labour are at odds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the US, the top 10% of the population own 87% of stocks and 84% of private businesses, according to data from the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, we have previously written about the rise of economic precarity in&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-road-to-serfdom&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Road to Serfdom&lt;/a&gt;. So, whilst it is a new observation amongst the commentariat, the diverging fortunes of capital and labour should start to trouble policymakers.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To start with, central bankers are in a difficult position as cutting rates will ultimately make wealth inequality greater, and many monetary economists would argue that inequality is not an objective in the Fed’s mandate. This is a fiscal/political problem, and one that Donald Trump had vowed to fix. However, the kinds of necessary fiscal remedies would have a strong ‘Robinhood’ flavour to them (fewer asset or capital exemptions, higher capital gains tax, and potentially higher corporate taxes) in truth are unlikely to be implemented.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The White House might argue that at least the US isn’t Europe – where everyone is poor, as all the wealthy have fled. Listening to debates in the UK House of Commons or France’s parliamentary fiscal committees last week, I have some sympathy for this view. Europe’s economies look ‘pear-shaped’ as the English might say.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Still, the idea of the K-shaped, or Marxist economy is worth studying, not so much for its economic consequences, but for the political, and ultimately financial, change it may bring.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Pear-shaped

&lt;h1&gt;Unio Win at the Irish Pensions Awards&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCZCPDLLL2INEY3LL4UZ7KNJ47X4?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Left to right: David Tighe CFP®, Head of Unio Wealth Solutions; Rowena Kenny ACA QFA SIA FPRA, Private Client Adviser; &amp; Noreen Stokes, Private Client Director, Unio Wealth Management&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YS700000fsCOc&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCZCPDLLL2INEY3LL4UZ7KNJ47X4&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Irish Pension Awards 2025.jpg&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pictured L-R: David Tighe, Head of Unio Wealth Solutions; Rowena Kenny, Private Client Adviser; and Noreen Stokes, Private Client Director.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio Wealth Management was honoured to receive the inaugural Wealth Management Award at the Irish Pensions Awards 2025.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This award is a proud moment for all of us at Unio and a celebration of the meaningful work we do every day to support our clients. It wouldn’t have been possible without the combined effort of so many people across our team.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We were also thrilled to see Unio represented across multiple categories on the night. A special congratulations to our colleagues in Unio Employee Benefits who were nominated in three categories, a fantastic achievement and a testament to their continued excellence and impact in the industry.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The awards took place on Tuesday, November 4th in the Round Room at the Mansion House, Dublin, marking the 14th year of celebrating excellence across the Irish pensions industry.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The full list of Irish Pensions Awards Winners&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.europeanpensions.net/irishawards/winners25.php&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; is available here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Unio Win at the Irish Pensions Awards

&lt;h1&gt;The Plenum&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;France, Germany and the UK, the industrial and intellectual powers of the early 20th century, are struggling to achieve economic momentum, against a threatening political backdrop where largely new parties from the right (Reform, AfD and Rassemblement) are hovering over these democracies. A common thread between the three countries is a lack of political and policy coherence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is not a problem for China, which whilst becoming even more autocratic, and has a policy mechanism that has served it well called the Plenum, which is held seven times during the five yearly policy making cycle that aims to set the long-term direction of the development of China by the Communist Party. Unlike the theatrical Labour and Tory party conferences in the UK, the Plenum is a sober affair.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Amidst the generalised chaos of Western politics in recent weeks, China held its most recent Plenum a week ago, of which there has been relatively little Western coverage. The object of the Plenum, a closed-door meeting between 370 Communist Party Central Committee members, is to agree and set out the broad (economic) policy objective for the next five years, to which further detail will be added in the new year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The backdrop to the Plenum is a more sluggish economy than the Chinese leadership would wish for. In particular, the Q3 GDP print was 4.8% Y-o-Y, which comes in just below the government’s 5% target. House prices fell again in September, this time at their fastest pace in 12 months. In addition, retail sales growth slowed and the contraction in property investment was disappointing. The need to boost demand is also an objective that has emerged from the Plenum.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The headline takeaway from the Plenum is that China ‘should achieve greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology’, which in many respects mirrors the path that the US and Europe are taking in developing their technology ecosystems in a strategic, autonomous way.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In more detail, the main thread from the Plenum is the stated objective to build a ‘modern industrial system’, which is now given top priority by the Party. This comes against the backdrop of the ‘involution’ policy of paring back excess capacity in existing industrial sectors, such as chemicals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The new policy will focus on building industries in leading technological segments – from clean energy to AI to semiconductors. Watchwords like intelligence, digitalization, and green transformation—will take policy priority over services (which was a priority in the previous Plenum gathering).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What is interesting is that the strategic competitive nature of the new policy is very much clear, as is the role of the US as the primary competitor. In this respect the Plenum outcome is a clear signal to the US regarding the trade war and restrictions on technology exports to China, and it puts last week’s trade ‘truce’ between the American and Chinese leaders in perspective, suggesting that China is simply buying time until it achieves technological independence from the US and Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The aim then (extending from the previous Plenum) is to make China more like Silicon Valley. My interpretation of all of this is that Xi is shaping China in the form of a more closed state (which makes for a less open world), that curbs the will of those inside, adopts a singularly selfish approach to those outside, and relies on several great strides in technological industrialisation for the prolongation of the ‘China Dream’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The contradiction here, and specifically between the strands to emerge from the Plenum, lies in an increasingly restrictive social infrastructure on one side and the ambition of a high-quality economy.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;China needs innovation but is creating a socio-political system that smothers it (a number of people have mentioned to me how some of China’s most creative people now live in Japan). This is the fallacy of authoritarian systems. Indeed, one of the facets of the Plenum was the replacement of 11 officials in the Central Committee – the highest number since 2017, most of whom held military roles.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this respect, Dan Wang’s recent book ‘Breakneck’ is interesting, rather it is much better in its commentary on China than other parts of the world and doesn’t fully do justice to the theory that an engineering led leadership is one of the key sources of China’s economic success. In the book Wang flags the focus on the high-tech sectors of the economy that has surfaced at the Plenum, but also notes China’s appalling failures in social areas – its handling of COVID and of the one-baby policy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wang’s view is that China will have little difficulty in finding scientists and researchers to pioneer discovery in fields like quantum computing, and here is the correct. The emerging issue may be finding the entrepreneurs to take and commercialise these technologies, and even more so, to do so on an international scale.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That might be a problem for the next Plenum. For the moment China is focusing on frontier technologies, so much so that the foreign minister of Germany, Johann Wadephul, had to cancel a trip to Beijing, because no-one would meet him.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Further reading: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/china-transitioning-from-debt-to-china-3-0&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Unio Global Macro Council(GMC) Outlook October 2025: China Transitioning from Debt to China 3.0&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;About the Author&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Strategic Adviser at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more,&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/about/advisers&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;speak with your Unio adviser&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Plenum

&lt;h1&gt;China – transitioning from debt to China 3.0&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This month, Unio's Global Macro Council explores China’s evolving economic landscape - from the legacy of debt-fuelled growth to the promise of AI, robotics and new energy. As tensions rise over rare earths and global influence, China remains a mystery to many in the West. With debt now at 293% of GDP, can China successfully transition to its next phase of innovation-led growth? A 3 minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The re-irruption of the tariff dispute between China and the US, triggered by a tightening of the export controls that China places on rare earths is a reminder of the great power competition that is emerging from the globalisation era. Of the major players, the US, Europe and China, China is a relative mystery in that it increasingly shields itself from outside scrutiny (economic data is harder to come by and restrictions on the flow of capital, ideas and people don’t help either). At the same time, it must be said that in the West there are a very small number of people who can be considered experts on China, and the number of political leaders in the West who know China is scant.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Viewed through the lens of the phases of its development, China is still working through the excesses of China 1.0 (the construction and real estate boom), living with China 2.0, its consumer led economy, and hoping that China 3.0 (AI, robotics and new energy) arrives soon. Its greatest concern is indebtedness in the face of slowing growth, which Morgan Stanley and Capital Group put in the low single digits, amidst a deteriorating rate of capital productivity. In China, according to the IMF 2025 Global Debt Monitor, total debt is 293% of GDP, just below that of ‘debt offenders’ France (328%) and Japan (418%), but still higher than most other countries including the USA (263%). China’s debt ratio has risen steadily over the ages, from 135% in 2000, to an average of 200% through the 2010’s to 264% by 2020. The emerging market ex China total debt to GDP ratio is a meagre 121%, so in this respect China has most certainly left its emerging market status behind and joined the ranks of the indebted older economies. Whilst total debt is elevated at 293%, Public or government debt to GDP in China is a little more respectable at 88% (advanced economies are at 110%). This excludes local authority debt, which itself is debatable as to whether it should be recognised as public or private debt.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The IMF includes part of China’s local authority debt in its private sector debt calculation, which at 200% in 2025 is one of the largest in the world (only France at 212% private sector debt to GDP, is larger). Aligned to the difficulty in the IMF data being validated, Chinese state bodies report lower debt figures, with Chinese media underlines that the debt load is ‘manageable’ . In that context, China has to tiptoe economically, allowing time for deleveraging to happen. Indeed, the Chinese authorities engage in periodic liquidity boosts to prime the stock market, in a bid to encourage savings out of real estate and into stocks. If China, whose financial system is largely internal in the sense that assets and liabilities are mostly held by domestic investors and importantly, where capital controls are in place, can deleverage, then it can resume the path to growth led by new technologies – notably new forms of energy and AI.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As always, Unio Wealth Management is keeping a close eye on the data and the decisions that shape our clients’ financial futures. If you want to learn more,&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt; get in touch.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

China – Transitioning from Debt to China 3.0

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;When George W Bush became president of the United States in 2000, following the relative calm and prosperity of the Clinton years, he was surrounded by a group of advisers called the ‘neo-cons’, whose significance grew in the aftermath of the September 11 attack on America.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The term ‘neo-con’ stemmed from Irving Kristol, one of the intellectual forces behind the right in American politics, who famously defined neo-conservatives as ‘liberals mugged by reality’. While the ‘neo-con’ movement started in the 1960’s and 70’s, it effectively came to prominence through the security policy actors of the post 2001 era -Paul Wolfowitz, Paul Bremer, Richard Perle and more famously John Bolton. The likes of Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney would have argued that they were never liberal in the first place.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In particular, the neo-cons’ policy approach was associated with an aggressively militaristic foreign policy, as exemplified in the invasion of Iraq. Though the neo-cons pre-figured Donald Trump, they now likely feel a diminished ideological attachment to him.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Today, as last week’s EU Summit in Copenhagen heralds another shift towards a tougher European policy stance on Russia, the time has come for Europe to have its neo-con moment, as centrist governments wake up to a geopolitical mugging by Russia, China and increasingly, the USA.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The extent of the Chinese pilferage of British state secrets is becoming clearer, the German intelligence services warn of subversion, manipulation and infiltration of German institutions by Russia and the Dutch intelligence agency has announced that it will curb intelligence sharing with Washington, lest its secrets are passed to the Kremlin. As evidence of these and other incursions grow, multiple European countries – Denmark and Sweden for example – have placed themselves on a war footing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At one level, the response of European countries (UK included) has been impressive. Germany has swept aside its debt brake and will spend up to Eur 1 trillion on defence in coming years, the UK has been an unwavering backer of Ukraine in its defence against Russian aggression, and there is now a defence start-up mania across Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;However, there are plenty of signs to suggest that Europe’s centrists have not come to terms with the vandalization of its democracies and institutions by outside actors. For example, tens of thousands of Chinese students populate UK universities, the south of France, Vienna and parts of Italy are host to wealthy Russians, and the EC is far too forgiving of the obstructionism of Viktor Orban. At the country level, there are notable laggards, Spain and Ireland stand out as nations that are ripe for a ‘mugging’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Following Captain Bligh’s dictum that ‘the beatings will continue until morale improves’, Europe will have to become more absolutist in its dealings with the world beyond, and in terms of the measures it will need to protect its democracy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The question then, is whether Europe is on the verge of a neo-con moment and what that might look like.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One response might be to list a series of necessary actions – a mechanism that might allow the EU to exclude recalcitrant members like Hungary, a more unforgiving policy on immigration, or a more full ‘shadow’ war against Russia, or even an aggressive acceleration of the savings and investment union (unlikely I fear).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A better signal would be a change in mentality. The EU and the UK currently march to the beat of every incursion and slight from the likes of Russia, or to the tone of every tweet from the US president. Europe will have to play at its own tempo, and more frequently up the ante in areas where it is capable of doing so. It must also change the international narrative around Europe, where it is cast as an ineffectual geopolitical actor and economic weakling.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The great pity, and a sign of a world that is being degraded, is that after a long period of globalisation when international democracy flourished, Europe could well end up as the last pocket of liberal democracy in the world. Whilst this is viewed as a vulnerability from Beijing and Moscow, and with disdain by others, for the vast majority of people around the world – education, healthcare and civil, open societies, all key characteristics of the European model, are what they crave. In years to come, Europe may be the only large region where the rule of law matters, and where institutions are stable.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A Europe that is ‘mugged by reality’ will in time act in a more ruthless and perhaps riskier way towards non-democracies, while concurrently being more confident in its socio-political model.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This EU Summit – which dodged a number of geopolitical issues (such as the use of Russian capital) – was not yet a ‘neo-con’ moment, the issue is how bad the mugging needs to be in order to change minds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Europe’s Neo-Con Moment

&lt;p&gt;Last week saw the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank take place in Washington, which typically offer a chance for economists and policy types to debate the state of the world. Several friends who attended reported back that the mood was less nervous than similar sessions earlier this summer, if only because the notion that we are in a normal, ordered world has been shattered.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In general, the IMF view is that in the next twelve months, the world economy will experience a low, positive rate of growth, with momentum in Europe picking up, just, and an otherwise troubled US economy flattered by the powerful effects of AI driven investment spending.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the early years of globalization, the confabs at the IMF/World Bank meetings produced a narrative that became known as the ‘Washington Consensus’ – effectively an approach to world economic development and globalisation, that was denounced by critics on the left as a neo-liberal policy recipe book.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Professor Joe Stiglitz, formerly the chief economist at the IMF, and thus one of its ‘high priests’, became very critical of the running of the IMF as an institution. In 2002 he wrote a book entitled ‘Globalization and its Discontents’ in which he mentioned globalization only 64 times but the IMF some 340 times. Despite that, and two case studies in errant leadership – at least two recent managing directors, Rodrigo de Rato and Dominique Strauss Kahn, were embroiled in scandals, the IMF maintained its place in the global macro discourse.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With the benefit of hindsight today, the Washington Consensus was valuable in the sense that it was a consensus– though perhaps not agreed – it encapsulated an approach that many countries were content to go along with as part of their first foray into real economic development. That consensus is now disturbed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I have long suspected that Donald Trump would shut down the IMF, but either he seems not to know it exits, or his treasury Secretary is a such a devotee of the IMF meetings and regards it as a useful forum to criticise China (notably, Bessent’s former chief of staff Dan Katz is now the Deputy Managing Director at the IMF). Now, it is not so much that the IMF will change, but the world around it has.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The ‘Fund’ used to be a financial ambulance (social scientist David Graeber had a harsher view calling it the ‘the high-finance equivalent of the guys who come to break your legs’), and in this sense it has rightly faced criticism in recent years – notably for its dealings with Greece (it was too harsh) and Argentina (it was too soft).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Today, it is a beacon of the orthodox, in an economic world where there seems to be a premium to unorthodox policy making. There are plenty of examples.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The IMF has stated that global public debt will hit 100% by 2029 (the highest since 1948) and singled out the US as a reckless player here. However, standard, or ‘orthodox’ remedies such as raising taxes and cutting spending are spurned by the White House in favour of antique policy choices (tariffs) and investment drive by immoral suasion.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Equally, now that Javier Milei’s chainsaw school of economic policy has run out of steam, the now traditional IMF visit to Buenos Aires might be expected, but it instead enjoys a financial support package from the US that will do little to help the underlying issues facing the Argentine economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Policy orthodoxy is being jettisoned in other ways. The Nobel (Riksbank) Prize in Economics went to three economists (Philippe Aghion, Joel Mokyr and Peter Howitt) for their work on how economies grow through innovation, as driven by higher education and research – two facets of the American model that are now being undercut.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If the IMF and its meetings are a beacon of the orthodox, governments like the USA are sailing past, on their way to a fiscal adventure, or simply speeding towards the financial rocks. If they hit those rocks, the warnings of the IMF economists that deficits are too high and debt to heavy will ring true, and there will be no money for a rescue.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is a crisis viewing in the US banking sector as markets question whether lending standards have been compromised. The index of US regional banks has fallen 10% since the start of October and could skid lower. It might give the IMF something to do.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

On The Rocks

&lt;h1&gt;Five Things Every Business Owner Should Know About Pensions&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pensions are one of the most powerful financial tools available to business owners yet they are often misunderstood or underused. Whether you're planning for retirement, aiming to optimise tax efficiency, or looking to build long-term wealth, a well-structured pension strategy can make a significant difference to your financial future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gary Cullen, Head of Unio's SME team writes about practical pension strategies to help business owners make smarter, more confident decisions about their wealth. A 4-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;1. Have a Plan for You&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your business may be thriving, but your personal financial future deserves equal attention. A pension is not just a company expense—it’s your future income. Having a tailored plan gives you flexibility and control, especially when it comes to the timing of your exit from your business, or its future sale. Don’t leave your future to chance, give yourself options.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;2. Don’t Just Focus on Investment Choices&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While investment performance matters, the structure of your pension can be just as important. Whether it’s an Occupational Pension Scheme or a Personal Retirement Savings Account (PRSA), the right setup depends on your circumstances. Factors like access age and death benefits vary significantly between structures. Whether you have existing benefits from a previous job can also influence what the right structure is for you. Get advice not just on where your money goes, but how it’s held.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;3. Understand the Power of Compounding and Euro Cost Averaging&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pensions are long-term vehicles, and the power of compounding means that even modest contributions can grow substantially over time. Euro cost averaging - investing consistently over time - helps smooth out market volatility. These principles make pensions powerful wealth-building tools, not just mechanisms for extracting value from your business. Read more about: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-time-value-of-money&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Time Value of Money | Unio News and Insight&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCRKD27OOVBBAFPPMSBE2GM5GYFY?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000g0f9&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCRKD27OOVBBAFPPMSBE2GM5GYFY&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Untitled (500 x 50 px) (460 x 50 px) (4).png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;4. Know the Tax Advantages&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Employer contributions to pensions can be highly tax efficient. For example, a €10,000 employer contribution may cost the business just €8,750 after corporation tax relief, and the funds move tax-efficiently from the business into the owner’s personal name. As an employee, the business owner can also make personal contributions and get income tax relief on same, but these are likely to be limited to a lower amount than what can be contributed by the employer.&nbsp;&nbsp;Understanding these dynamics can help you optimise your pension strategy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;5. Think Beyond the Business&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your pension should be designed to support your life beyond your business. Whether you plan to retire early, continue working part-time, or pass on wealth to your family, your pension structure can support those goals. With options like Approved Retirement Funds (ARFs) and annuities, and access ages ranging from 50 to 75 depending on the scheme, there’s room to personalise your plan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;About the author&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Gary Cullen is Head of Unio Wealth Management’s SME team and specialises in bespoke advice for business owners, covering retirement planning, financial strategy, and investment advisory services. Gary has been advising high-net-worth clients since 2003. Before joining Unio, Gary worked with Harvest Financial Services as Head of Client Management and held roles with Lloyds TSB and AIB in London.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Review Your Pension&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Invest time now to plan the pension you deserve with Unio. It will be time well spent. You might be surprised by how much more you could contribute with the right guidance. A quick 30-minute conversation with one of our expert advisers could unlock significant opportunities for your future. To book your pension review, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/pensions2025&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;visit our pension page&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt;, &lt;/strong&gt;fill out the short form and one of our expert advisers will be in touch to arrange a call at a time that suits you.&lt;/p&gt;

Five Things Every Business Owner Should Know About Pensions

&lt;h1&gt;Human Capital: The Hidden Asset in Wealth Planning&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While financial capital reflects what you’ve already earned, human capital - your skills, experience, and earning potential -drives what you can build. In this 5-minute read, Wendy McKeown CFP®, Head of Financial Planning at Unio, explores how understanding and managing your human capital is key to long-term financial success.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What is Human Capital?&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Human capital is the value you generate through education, knowledge, experience and skills that you accumulate throughout life – effectively your earnings power.&nbsp;We can think of human capital as a stream of future income to be realised over time.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Balancing Human and Financial Capital in Wealth Strategy&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The chart below illustrates the relationship between Human Capital, Financial Capital, and Total Wealth over a lifetime (ages 25 to 65).The chart demonstrates that human capital is the primary driver of wealth in early years, but over time, financial capital takes over as the dominant component. This transition highlights the importance of converting income potential into sustainable financial assets through proper wealth management.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MC4PBKQCBIRNGALNMV7AILVM5KZY?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Wealth management lifecycle chart showing human capital decreasing with age, financial capital growing, and total wealth as their sum.&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fzxU&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MC4PBKQCBIRNGALNMV7AILVM5KZY&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;The Time Value of Money _Unio Wealth Management.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Role of Human Capital in Financial Planning&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Human Capital is a measure of someone’s future earnings potential. This means Human Capital will be at its highest when someone is at the beginning of their career.&nbsp;For someone closer to retirement, human capital (or your future earnings potential) will be much lower. By contrast, your financial wealth is typically lowest when you are young and then over time, financial capital steadily increases as you save, invest and compound your earnings.&nbsp;As you age, you are steadily using up your future earning power, so the value of your human capital gradually declines.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;How human capital influences savings and investments&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The concept of human capital can play into your portfolio asset allocation. When you’re young and in the ‘accumulation’ phase of your investing life, you can focus on higher risk assets like equities with less in lower volatility assets such as bonds.&nbsp;Your human capital is high, and you have more time to recoup investment loses.&nbsp;Over time, as your human capital reduces and your financial capital increases, your investment allocation can shift towards more conservative assets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Protecting Your Human Capital&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Where you have a heavy reliance on human capital to provide cashflow to support lifestyle needs, there is also a larger risk that a loss of earnings will have a significantly bigger impact.&nbsp;This really highlights the necessity for life insurance for income protection, ideally correlated to hedge against mortality risk and targeted to cover any lost future earnings.&nbsp;Over time, as future earnings potential reduces, so too does the reliance on human capital in provision of cashflow as a larger financial capital base is accrued.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Time and the Value of Human Capital&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Time is the multiplier of human capital. The earlier you start developing your skills and expertise, the longer you can reap the rewards through higher income and better career opportunities. Understanding the compounding effect of time on your earning potential can transform the way you plan for your financial future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Conclusion – Human Capital vs. Financial Capital&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While financial capital measures the wealth you’ve accumulated, human capital represents your capacity to create more. Both are essential for financial stability, but they work in different ways - one is tangible, the other is potential. Balancing and nurturing both forms of capital is the foundation of sustainable wealth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;About the Author&nbsp;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wendy McKeown CFP® is head of Unio Wealth Management’s Financial Planning team and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Talk to us&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio is a wealth management firm built around our clients with a strong focus on personal service, trusted advice and access to our experienced investment team. We work closely with individuals, families and businesses to create long-term, strategic financial plans to help meet your goals by guarding, guiding and growing your wealth.&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Interested in starting a conversation about your wealth plan? &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Get in touch.&lt;/a&gt; It will be time well spent.&lt;/p&gt;

Human Capital: The Hidden Asset in Wealth Planning

&lt;h1&gt;Investing Post Retirement - Risks and Strategies&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stephen McEntee, private client adviser in Unio's Independent Wealth team, explores the unique challenges and opportunities that come with investing after retirement. From understanding the critical impact of Sequence of Returns Risk to implementing smart diversification and income-focused strategies, this article offers practical insights to help you protect and grow your retirement income. A 4-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Investing post-retirement&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once you have made the transition to retirement and key considerations such as your income requirements and lifestyle needs have been explored in detail; the focus quickly moves to how and where your accumulated pension funds should be invested.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are clearly risks when you are funding a pension, in the ‘fund accumulation’ stage. There are also risks when you move to retirement, or the ‘decumulation’ stage, but they are very different.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sequence of Returns Risk is the risk that the timing of market returns impact retirement savings. For retirees, a market downturn early in retirement can deplete a portfolio faster than expected, even with strong long-term returns. This article explains why this risk matters and offers strategies to protect your retirement income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Risks with Retirement Income&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The risks specific to you as a post-retirement investor should be reflected in the investment portfolio within your post-retirement pension fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, when you are making regular withdrawals from an investment – as you will be doing in retirement – your selected investment portfolio should be constructed with Sequencing Risk in mind. Sequencing Risk is created by the sequence in which investment returns are generated, and the timing of withdrawals from the fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Understanding Sequence of Returns Risk&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To understand the effect of sequence of investment returns, consider the below two scenarios of five-year market returns:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;table border=&quot;0&quot; style=&quot;width: 690pt;&quot; width=&quot;920&quot;&gt;
 &lt;tbody&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Scenario A Returns&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Scenario B Returns&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;Year 1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;25%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: black;&quot;&gt;-20%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;Year 2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;15%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;&quot;&gt;-5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;-5%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;15%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 102.3pt; border: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;136&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;Year 5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 155.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;208&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;-20%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 431.9pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;576&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;color: #333333;&quot;&gt;25%&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
 &lt;/tbody&gt;
&lt;/table&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The returns are identical in both the above scenarios, but in reverse order. In a ‘decumulating’ fund where you are making withdrawals, the order of the returns makes a significant impact on the value at the end of the five-year period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Scenario A, €100,000 invested with €10,000 withdrawals each year would leave residual capital value of €70,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Scenario B, the same investment amount and withdrawals would leave a residual capital value of €47,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, if you experience a poor initial sequence of returns immediately after retirement and make withdrawals during this period (as you may be obliged to do in a post-retirement pension); you effectively crystallise some losses. This can be difficult to recover from as you will continue to make withdrawals each year in retirement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Mitigating Risk&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are several strategies that can be employed to manage portfolios more effectively and reduce the impact of market downturns on retirement income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;An important tool in trying to reduce the fund volatility you experience is to invest in a wide range of assets, known as diversification. Your portfolio should benefit from an appropriate level of diversification, both across assets classes, like shares, property and bonds, and within each asset class. You can also diversify geographically and across industries, and between different fund managers – reducing the risk of overreliance on any one fund manager.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another common strategy for post-retirement clients is to invest in a portfolio with a clear focus on income producing assets. In general terms, income paying assets tend to be more stable than the average when markets are volatile. In addition to this, the ability to take some or all your pension withdrawals from income generated within the fund means that the investments themselves are left mainly intact. This allows you to minimise the degree to which you crystallise losses when the fund falls in any particular year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Finally, when considering a fund on which you are somewhat dependent on for income in retirement, inflation risk should also be considered.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Investing your post-retirement fund in cash, or extremely low risk portfolios, reduces investment and sequencing risk, but increases the risk that the income you can expect from the fund will be worth less and less throughout your retirement in real terms.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This highlights the fundamental challenge to a post-retirement investor: no single type of risk should take precedent or be considered in isolation. Instead, all relevant risks should be considered in a balanced manner, and your expectations regarding your investment portfolio should involve not just an expected return over the long term, but also a good understanding of what your investor experience is likely to be over that period.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;About the author&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stephen McEntee is a private client adviser in our Independent Wealth team. Stephen's expertise is in providing bespoke pension and investment advice to our high net worth clients.&nbsp;Prior to joining Unio in 2024, Stephen was a Senior Portfolio Manager at Harvest Financial Service Limited for 17 years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Review Your Pension&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Invest time now to plan the pension you deserve with Unio.&nbsp;It will be time well spent. A quick 30-minute conversation with one of our expert advisers could unlock significant opportunities for your future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To book your pension review,&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://unio.ie/pensions2025&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;visit our pension page,&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;fill out the short form and one of our expert advisers will be in touch to arrange a call at a time that suits you.&lt;/p&gt;

Investing Post Retirement - Risks and Strategies

&lt;h1&gt;Why Pension Contributions Are a Smart Tax Strategy&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pension contributions are not just about securing your future, they’re also one of the most effective ways to reduce your taxable income. In 2025, tax relief is available on personal contributions made to pension plans, with relief claimable on up to &lt;strong&gt;€115,000&lt;/strong&gt; of net relevant earnings.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Age-Based Contribution Limits for 2025&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The amount of income tax relief you can claim depends on your age. This includes both &lt;strong&gt;Additional Voluntary Contributions (AVCs)&lt;/strong&gt; and ordinary personal contributions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;table border=&quot;1&quot; style=&quot;border: none; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;
 &lt;tbody&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;Age&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;Maximum Contribution %&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.3pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;Maximum Contribution €&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;30&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;15%&lt;span style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.3pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;€17,250&lt;span style=&quot;text-align: left;&quot;&gt; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;30 to 39 years&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;20%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.3pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;€23,000&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;40 to 49 years&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;25%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.3pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;€28,750&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;50 to 54 years&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;30%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.3pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;€34,500&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;55 to 59 years&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;35%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.3pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;€40,250&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;60 years or over&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.25pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;40%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; style=&quot;width: 150.3pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot; width=&quot;200&quot;&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;center&quot; style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;&quot;&gt;€46,000&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
 &lt;/tbody&gt;
&lt;/table&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These limits apply only to &lt;strong&gt;personally made employee, or self-employed pension contributions&lt;/strong&gt;. Where applicable,&nbsp;employer contributions can&nbsp;also&nbsp;be made in addition to further enhance your overall retirement funding.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Don’t Miss Out on 2024 Income Tax Relief&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you haven’t yet used the full income tax relief available for the 2024 tax year, there’s still time. You can make AVCs by:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;*31st October 2025 - &lt;/strong&gt;The Pay and File deadline for the 2024 Income Tax Return (Form 11) is Friday 31 October.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;*19th November 2025&lt;/strong&gt; - The deadline for paying and filing on&nbsp;ROS for the 2024 Income Tax Return (Form 11) is Wednesday 19 November.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Important Note for Online Submissions&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Revenue requires that you upload a copy of your &lt;strong&gt;pension certificate&lt;/strong&gt; when submitting your tax return online. Be sure to allow enough time for your pension provider to issue this certificate, especially if you're submitting close to the deadline. This applies to all pension contributions which have not been deducted through net pay.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Review Your Pension&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You might be surprised by how much more you could contribute with the right guidance. A quick 30-minute conversation with one of our expert advisers could unlock significant opportunities for your future. Invest time now to plan the pension you deserve with Unio.&nbsp;It will be time well spent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/pensions2025&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Visit our pension page&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt; fill out the short form and one of our expert advisers will be in touch to arrange a call at a time that suits you.&lt;/p&gt;

Are you maximising your pension contributions?

&lt;h1&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Passing on More than Wealth: Building Financial Literacy Across Generations&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Yvonne Clinton CFP®, a financial planner in Unio’s Financial Planning team writes about the importance of building financial literacy across generations. The article discusses how financial literacy is crucial for managing and preserving wealth, especially as the transfer of wealth between generations in Ireland is growing at an unprecedented rate. A 5-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland is experiencing an unprecedented transfer of wealth between generations. As families accumulate more assets, a crucial question arises: are the next generation ready to manage what they inherit or will the wealth that has built up over their parents’ lifetimes be squandered due to a lack of understanding of how to manage wealth?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The demanding work of wealth building - earning promotions, managing expenses, buying a home, saving for the future - is just one part of the picture. Knowing how to preserve, grow, and pass on that wealth requires something else entirely: financial literacy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What is financial literacy?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial literacy refers to the set of skills required to make important financial decisions, particularly in the areas of borrowing and investing money. Being financially literate empowers people to plan and manage their money in line with their individual or family goals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, about half of the adult population of the EU does not have a good enough understanding of basic financial concepts to be considered financially literate [1]. Given the potential complexity of financial products, this lack of understanding can lead to poor decision-making, or even no decisions being made at all.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For many people, financial literacy is learned informally from family, friends, books, the media, or online sources. Beyond this, busy working professionals often employ a wealth manager, delegating the details of managing their wealth to the experts. But even with the support of a trusted adviser, many will still struggle to feel fully confident in financial conversations, never mind in making financial decisions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Financial Literacy cannot be outsourced&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Working with a wealth manager can give clients peace of mind, but it is not a substitute for developing financial literacy. Having a basic understanding of principles of investment risk, cashflow management, asset liquidity, and inheritance rules can lead to better outcomes. The client does not have to be an expert themselves, however if they understand the rationale behind their adviser’s recommendations, they are empowered to make decisions with the confidence that aligns with their values and long-term goals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Confidence, or Over-confidence?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Most young people think it is important to talk about money, a change from previous generations when talking about finance was seen as impolite!&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A recent RED C survey commissioned by Unio Wealth Management for our Building Wealth Report shows that Irish people are divided on the concept of wealth, with an equal number of respondents feeling comfortable with the term as those who feel uncomfortable. Interestingly, 40% approx. of respondents in the 18-34 cohort expressed comfort with the notion of wealth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But the next generation face their own issues when it comes to financial literacy, as this openness to discuss wealth doesn’t always translate to sound decision-making.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many young people are learning about money via social media, and this can lead to the development of over-confidence in their own knowledge and decision-making ability. The impact of risk on reward may be under-stated by influencers focusing on single stocks, or niche investments.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Supporting the next generation to build their knowledge will enable them to understand that financial products and investment return are a tool to achieve their goals – not a goal in and of themselves [2].&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Leaving a legacy that is more than just financial.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many parents may actively avoid discussing money with their children. Often this is driven by a desire to protect the children and ensure they are motivated to study and work hard at their own, independent careers.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But by shielding children from financial realities, they risk leaving them unprepared and unequipped to manage significant assets when the time comes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A legacy can be more than money. It can also encompass the values, habits, and attitude towards finance that parents develop over their lifetime and pass on to their children. Without a shared understanding of how wealth is earned, managed, and preserved, even the best financial strategies can unravel within a generation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;How to build financial literacy – for both you, and your family&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;For you:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Building personal financial literacy can start with the simple act of being curious and asking questions. When your adviser recommends a particular course of action, invest time in understanding the rationale. Over time, these conversations build financial confidence and enable deeper, more meaningful engagement.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your adviser may also share educational content, such as webinars or insights. Actively engaging with these materials - especially those most relevant to your situation - can expand your knowledge in areas you may not have considered before, such as estate planning, retirement, or philanthropic giving.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Know your own knowledge limitations; be honest about when you don’t understand something and be comfortable to ask questions and seek advice from professionals.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;For your family:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having age-appropriate discussions with your children can develop financial literacy from an early age. These conversations could start out as simple discussions over whether to spend or save pocket money this week. Teaching moments can also arise naturally in day-to-day life. For example, if there is a big purchase happening like a new car, or a home renovation, there may be an opportunity to talk through the costs of borrowing compared to saving to fund the purchase.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;According to a Red C sentiment survey commissioned by Unio Wealth Management as part of its recent &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/passing-it-on-how-irish-families-are-rethinking-wealth-transfer&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Unio Building Wealth Report 2025&lt;/a&gt; younger generations (18-34) generally appear more comfortable with the idea of wealth and curious to receive advice on it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As the children grow, you can involve your adviser in this process of financial education. Parents will often use the Small Gift Exemption to gift up to €6,000 p.a. to a child in a tax-efficient manner. The child can usually access these funds from the age of eighteen, making this a suitable time to educate them about how to manage wealth and financial resources in a safe environment.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For families with significant wealth, more formal structures such as family partnerships- can provide oversight and protection of assets well beyond age 18, while gradually introducing children to the responsibilities of managing wealth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;In short&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial literacy starts with not being afraid to talk about finance and what your goals for your money are, while knowing the limits of your own knowledge. Beyond this, financial literacy means having in-depth conversations with your adviser, and your children. The wealth you have built up over the course of your lifetime is too important to leave to chance.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Leave your family with both wealth and the ability to manage that wealth wisely.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Yvonne Clinton, CFP® is a financial planner in Unio Wealth Management’s Financial Planning Team and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Talk to us&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio is a wealth management firm built around our clients with a strong focus on personal service, trusted advice and access to our experienced investment team. We work closely with individuals, families and businesses to create long-term, strategic financial plans to help meet your goals by guarding, guiding and growing your wealth.&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Get in touch.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h3&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Further Reading&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h3&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/passing-it-on-how-irish-families-are-rethinking-wealth-transfer&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Passing It On: How Families Are Rethinking Wealth Transfer | Unio News &amp; Insights&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-unio-building-wealth-report&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Unio Building Wealth Report | Unio News &amp; Insights&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;References&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ol&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://finance.ec.europa.eu/consumer-finance-and-payments/financial-literacy_en&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;European Commission, Financial Literacy in Europe&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
 &lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.mabs.ie/en/news/money-attitudes-and-behaviours-of-young-people-living-in-ireland/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;MABS, 2023 Money Attitudes and Behaviours of Young People Living in Ireland &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ol&gt;

Financial Literacy Across the Generations

Bigger Pension Caps Ahead

&lt;h1&gt;‘Patriotic’ Capital&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Anglophone press has recently become very excited by the contribution of economist Gabriel Zucman to the debate in France on the dire fiscal outlook, and the notion that a tax on the super-rich might solve France’s intimidatingly high deficit and debt load. The idea is superficially attractive in France, where wealth is a dirty word, though there is lots of it (France has 5% of the world’s millionaires, according to recent UBS/CS Wealth Reports).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For his part, Zucman – a clever economist and winner of the Clark Medal - is guilty only of not having spent enough time with billionaires, and learning how mobile, and unpatriotic capital has become. Notably, fiscally weak states risk capital flight. Zucman may also have missed the signal that a stiff wealth tax (as a fiscal response) sends to the broad investment community. The UK is an example, where the recent policies of the Tories and Labour have allegedly scared all the billionaires off to either Milan or Dubai.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In France specifically, the debate on the Zucman tax obscures the reality that, in the effective-post Macron era, there is no appetite across the political spectrum to tackle the large deficit and debt load. However, a new left-leaning government in France will put the notion of a wealth tax even more so in the limelight.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;More broadly, the focus on wealth raises two important questions as we move into the ‘Age of Debt’, where&nbsp;the consequences of indebtedness pervade and dominate politics, financial markets, geopolitics and society.&nbsp;They are how will the capital of the wealthy behave in a debt laden world and how will governments marshal the wealthy?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At first sight, in a world where the burden of mostly government debt, is weighing on economies, owners of capital face opportunities and constraints, both of which will increasingly be driven by the notion of patriotism.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;High levels of government debt mean that governments cannot be as active in building new infrastructure, be it in AI, energy or in defence. That much is very clear in the UK, and despite the easing of the German debt brake, is also true in Europe. In the US, much of the new AI infrastructure will be funded by the cash rich technology giants and the private credit sector.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end private asset investors, and seasoned family businesses in the US as well as Europe, may have a larger strategic imprint, and the upshot of this is that tax focused economists like Gabriel Zucman should spend more time thinking of how to better incentivize private investment in Europe, which is yet missing in large economies like Germany.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The other, newer aspect of ‘patriotic capital’ relates to bond markets. We may not be far away from a point where institutional investors begin to lose faith in the bond markets of the major economies – China, Japan, UK, France, Italy and the US – near 60% of the world’s economy. In many of these countries bond yields may rise to multi-decade highs. The US, where inflation looks ready to push higher again is a particular concern, and this might well betray President Trump’s desire to take control of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Given that the White House has little appetite for orthodox fiscal policy it may, in the context of very high bond yields target the very wealthy, not so much as sources of tax revenue, but as patriotic buyers of debt. There are close to 130,000 ultra-high net worth individuals in the US (wealth over USD 50mn and beyond) and together they represent a pool of capital of tens of trillions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As is now the case in Indonesia, in the near future it may be that, consistent with the idea of financial repression, the US government issues a ‘patriotic’ loan sourced from American family offices, with the rider that those that have the correct asset allocation do not get a visit from the IRS. It might even be that more nuanced assets – defence innovation venture funding, is farmed out to wealthy Americans (it is largely the case already).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The reality of the indebtedness of the large economies means, somewhat contrary to the Zucman framework, that the wealthy and their governments become more symbiotic, and that there is a ‘contract’ between the wealthy and government. None of this solves the fact that some very wealthy pay miniscule taxes, nor that in countries like the USA, where wealth inequality is at historic extremes, and in particular that the super wealthy exert an undue influence on public life.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What is ahead, given weak government finances and record private wealth, is an era where patriotic ‘barons’ invest in government debt for the sake of fiscal peace and stability, and where they play an outsized role in the private economy. In time, this may sow the seeds of even greater upheaval.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

'Patriotic' Capital

&lt;h1&gt;Budget 2026: Small Wins for Investors and SMEs&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Budget 2026 was presented by Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe &amp; Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers today. As anticipated, there were no real surprises and the budget focused mainly on public spending and infrastructure. While we were hoping for more, there were some key proposals made in areas such as Exit Tax and Entrepreneur Relief, offering some respite to retail investors and small to medium businesses.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Exit Tax: Gains For Investors, Gaps in Reform&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio was pleased to see the rate of exit tax on Irish-domiciled investment funds and life products reduced from 41% to 38%. We believe that this should ultimately be brought in line with the standard rate of Capital Gains Tax of 33% levied on the likes of share and property sales.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, we were disappointed not to see the end of deemed disposal for Irish-domiciled investment funds and life products. This rule taxes gains made every eight years, even if the investor has not sold their holding and realised the gains. There was also no reduction to the 1% Government Levy applied to investment funds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Harmonisation of the rate and removal of deemed disposal were recommended in the Fund Sector 2030 report, which was published in late 2024. We hope to see these recommendations implemented in full following the issue of an Implementation Plan for the Fund Sector 2030, due later today (07/10/2025), as we believe they would encourage greater participation in investment in Ireland, particularly from retail investors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Bigger Breaks for Business Owners&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Entrepreneur Relief is a valuable relief which reduces the rate of Capital Gains Tax charged on the first €1m of gains made in their lifetime on the disposal of their business from 33% to 10%. This lifetime limit is being increased to €1.5m from the 1st of January 2026, which will result in business owners potentially saving up to €115,000 on the disposal of their business.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Additionally, VAT on food &amp; catering and hairdressing businesses will be reduced from 13.5% to 9% from the 1st of July 2026.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Other Points to Note&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As forecast, there were minimal changes with regards to personal tax bands or thresholds. There was a small increase to the 2% USC band, up to €28,700 from 01/01/2026.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It was confirmed that the State Pension rate will increase by €10 per week. It was also announced that a bonus double payment will again apply for Christmas.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Student Contribution Charge has been permanently revised to €2,500 per year, per student.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Implementation of Changes from Budget 2025&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some key changes that were announced in Budget 2025 are due to be implemented from 1st January 2026, including:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The Standard Fund Threshold is being increased to €2.2m and is due to increase further over the following years. &lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;Read more: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/bigger-pension-caps-ahead&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Bigger Pension Caps Ahead | Unio News and Insights&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;-Auto-Enrolment (AE) is being introduced in January 2026. This will see any employee aged between 23-60, earning more than €20,000 p.a., automatically enrolled in the My Future Fund pension scheme Contributions to My Future Fund will be made by the employee and employer and then be topped up by the government. Read more: &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/understanding-auto-enrolment&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Understanding Auto Enrolment | Unio News and Insights&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2 style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;What do these changes mean for you?&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Finance Bill will be critical for interpreting the finer points and our team will keep a close eye on any updates that may impact clients' financial plans.&nbsp; For a full understanding of the potential changes and the impact they will have on financial planning for your future, speak to your Unio adviser or&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;get in touch.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Budget 2026: Small Wins for Investors and SMEs

&lt;h1&gt;Maximising Pension Opportunities: Strategies for Professionals and Business Owners&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;h2 style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1134158788646541919&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Register here&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this webinar, Andy Dixon and Yvonne Clinton explore how to position your pension as a cornerstone of your wealth planning strategy. Learn how to unlock valuable tax efficiencies and plan with confidence for the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: center;&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Time &amp; Date:&lt;/strong&gt; Wednesday, October 15th 11:00-11:45am&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What You Will Learn:&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;-Maximise Your Pension Options: &lt;/strong&gt;Discover the key opportunities available and how to use them wisely to support your financial goals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;-Understand Recent Changes: &lt;/strong&gt;From PRSA updates to evolving thresholds, we’ll break down what’s changed and what it means for your retirement strategy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;-Plan with Confidence and Tax Efficiency:&lt;/strong&gt; Learn how smart planning today can lead to long-term financial security and peace of mind.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Meet Your Presenters&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Andy Dixon CFP®&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Head of Independent Wealth&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Andy specialises in bespoke advice for business owners and high-net-worth clients, covering retirement planning, financial strategy, and investment advisory services. Before joining Unio in 2024, Andy was Head of Business Development at Harvest Financial Services.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Yvonne Clinton CFP®, ACCA&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Financial Planner&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Yvonne brings deep expertise in retirement planning, investment strategy, and holistic wealth management. She is a trusted adviser to individuals and families navigating complex financial decisions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Your host for this session will be &lt;strong&gt;Wendy McKeown CFP®&lt;/strong&gt;, Head of Financial Planning at Unio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Ask the Experts&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have questions? Submit them in advance to our expert Q&amp;A session at &lt;a href=&quot;mailto:marketing@unio.ie&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;marketing@unio.ie&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Reviewing Your Pension Now is Time Well Spent&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You might be surprised by how much more you could contribute with the right guidance. A quick 30-minute conversation with one of our expert advisers could unlock significant opportunities for your future.&nbsp;Invest time now to plan the pension you deserve with Unio. It will be time well spent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/pensions2025&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Visit our pension page&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;fill out the short form and one of our expert advisers will be in touch to arrange a call at a time that suits you.&lt;/p&gt;

Webinar: Pensions Strategies for Professionals and Business Owners

&lt;p&gt;This week’s note is not about economics nor geopolitics but rather the inspiring Jane Goodall, who very sadly passed away in California this week. I’ve come to know her in the last five years as a trustee of the JG Legacy Foundation, and to add to the great mountain of tributes to her, can attest that she was a remarkable person, which is something we can say of too few figures on the world stage.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Jane was much better known in the Anglophone world than elsewhere, but the contribution of her research is felt internationally. To those who are less familiar with her life, in her early 20’s Jane saved up enough money to travel to Africa to pursue her ambition of studying wildlife (chimpanzees). After a period working with the famous paleoanthropologist Louis Leakey, she won his support for a solo research trip into the Gombe reserve in Tanzania to study chimps (though her mother came along to keep her company). There is a very good&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bbc.com/audio/play/w3ct1x7t__;!!O22_8FOSssc!kfW82IinDhbs-lEXUViti5LPek6yeeYn0R4kty_k7BNYpHi4ELiTS3X-e-bw8POYxJRvm-iN-qiJzH75DI44i4V3$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;BBC documentary on Jane’s work&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;in Gombe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This research became her life’s work and changed the way the&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-03209-y?utm_source=Live*Audience&amp;utm_campaign=acf28f1ac7-nature-briefing-daily-20251002&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_-33f35e09ea-50969340__;Kw!!O22_8FOSssc!kfW82IinDhbs-lEXUViti5LPek6yeeYn0R4kty_k7BNYpHi4ELiTS3X-e-bw8POYxJRvm-iN-qiJzH75DHMUJEv6$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;scientific community regarded&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;animals and the ways in which they were researched. An&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/article/jane-goodall-original-story-chimpanzees-still-astonishes__;!!O22_8FOSssc!kfW82IinDhbs-lEXUViti5LPek6yeeYn0R4kty_k7BNYpHi4ELiTS3X-e-bw8POYxJRvm-iN-qiJzH75DL4gHLdS$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;early National Geographic article by Jane&lt;/a&gt;, authored in 1963, is worth a read, not just because it gives a sense of her patience and intrepid curiosity, but for what it teaches us about the relationship between animals and humans, and the revelation (it was at the time) that animals are social, emotional creatures.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The flip side of this thought is that many humans are only a thin veneer away from the behaviour of chimps, and in a world where the law of the jungle is re-asserting itself, there are more and more displays of what we could call primate type behaviour.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Jane Goodall had many qualities – she was, I think very tough, brave and firmly believed in the causes she pioneered and supported. She travelled everywhere – in the past week she went from Bournemouth to New York and then California and was supposed to come to Cork at the end of this month. Though she was welcomed in the very top echelons of world society, she was most certainly not materialistic, save for a weakness for good whiskey.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If I could sum her up and draw lessons from her life for today’s world, I feel she was otherworldly in respects of her life story, comportment, and influence. Without over-moralising her life, there are at least two observations to make.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first, given that my inbox is full of tales of the de-humanisation of society – collapsing demographics, job markets deflated by AI, diminished social interaction between young people and other angsts created by social media, is of how Jane is a role model. In this context, Jane Goodall is an example to young and old of a life well lived, and one that has mattered. Two of her qualities that I would stress that can inform people today, are her intellectual curiosity and courage.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second remark, which is all the more obvious, is that the causes Jane pioneered and the values she personified, are increasingly the exception rather&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;than the rule. USAID budget cuts will lead to deaths in Africa, conservationism and the cause of the environment are no longer fashionable causes though arguably they are more vital than ever. In politics, there is a narrative that ‘bad things are happening’ without meaningful opposition, serious counterarguments, and meaningful leadership. One of Jane’s noteworthy statements was ‘&lt;em&gt;The biggest danger to our future is apathy’&lt;/em&gt;. The analogies to the political and corporate worlds are obvious.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I would like to finish this note by encouraging readers to dip into the story of Jane’s life (again sites like National Geographic are good), and the various projects that she has inspired like&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/rootsandshoots.org/about-us/our-global-chapters/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!kfW82IinDhbs-lEXUViti5LPek6yeeYn0R4kty_k7BNYpHi4ELiTS3X-e-bw8POYxJRvm-iN-qiJzH75DPoFt7BQ$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Roots and Shoots&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;the movement that helps young people impact their communities, the Jane Goodall Institute and then the&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/janeslegacy.org/jane-goodall-legacy-foundation/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!kfW82IinDhbs-lEXUViti5LPek6yeeYn0R4kty_k7BNYpHi4ELiTS3X-e-bw8POYxJRvm-iN-qiJzH75DJu1Ta9-$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Jane Goodall Legacy Foundation&lt;/a&gt;, which will soon start to fund the projects that Jane cared about.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Jane Goodall

&lt;h1&gt;Mind the Gap – The Gender Pension Gap in Ireland&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As they near retirement, many women in Ireland face a harsh reality that their pensions are significantly lower than those of men. Our colleague Miriam Burke, Head of Member Engagement at Unio Employee Benefits explores the gender pension gap, looking at causes and some practical approaches to addressing the shortfall.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The Scale of the Problem&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 2024 Gender Pension parity Gap Report from Irish Life clearly highlights the pension inequality faced by working women, finding a worrying 36% gender pension gap(1). This gender pension gap, driven by factors such as parental leave, career breaks for caregiving, part-time work and lower lifetime earnings, highlights ongoing inequalities that jeopardise the financial security of Irish women.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;First-Hand Experience&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In my job, I meet and advise hundreds of men and women every year at different stages in their retirement cycle and get to see this ‘gap’ at first hand. It’s a fact that women’s pension pots are lower than their male counterparts and while thankfully over the last few years the gender pay gap is getting less, and women are more aware, and paying into their pensions earlier, their ‘pension pots’ continue to be lower.&nbsp;The report finds that women in this country would need to work a staggering eight years longer to retire with the same pension pot as men (1). I think we could do better.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Why the gap exists?&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Anyone can end up having a gap in their pension, due to parental leave, maternity or paternity leave, or caring for a family member, however, the implication of taking time out from paying pension contributions needs to be considered carefully, as these breaks can severely impact pension income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Employment Duration&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Though both women and men take time out from the workforce, on average European women spend 4.3 years less in paid employment than men, though in Ireland, that gap is wider at six years(2).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Pay Disparity&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another driver of the pension gap is the perennial issue of the pay gap. The EU gender earnings gap is 36.2 %(2). The Irish Life report found that women’s salaries are, on average, 22% less than their male colleagues.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Leadership Representation&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The ‘glass ceiling’ too remains a factor. The position in the hierarchy influences the level of pay and less than one in ten of top companies’ CEOs are women (3).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Signs of Progress&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On a positive note, I believe that the new generation of women coming into the workplace are generally more confident, finance-savvy and very focused on their pensions however, the pressure seems to be on women to educate themselves, and demand pay transparency and equal rewards.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Bridging the Gap&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The gender pension gap issue is complex, and a multi-faceted approach is needed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Policy and Employer Action&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Employers can increase pension contributions for employees returning from unpaid leave.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Contributions during maternity/paternity leave should be standardised.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Salary range reporting and visibility of women in senior roles can help address systemic inequality.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Individual Strategies&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Employees can boost their AVCs (Additional Voluntary Contributions) to compensate for missed contributions—though affordability remains a concern.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Regular engagement with pension advisers is essential to understand options and implications of career breaks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Pensions are complex and information is power. Engage frequently with your private client adviser to make sure you understand your options when it comes to your pension arrangements and the implications of any leave entitlements.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Review Your Pension&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Invest time now to plan the pension you deserve with Unio.&nbsp;It will be time well spent. A quick 30-minute conversation with one of our expert advisers could unlock significant opportunities for your future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To book your pension review,&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;http://unio.ie/pensions2025&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;visit our pension page,&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;fill out the short form and one of our expert advisers will be in touch to arrange a call at a time that suits you.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;References:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Gender Pension Parity Report, Irish Life, 2024&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Duration of Working Life, Eurostat, 2023&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-The Gender Pay Gap Situation in the EU, Eurostat 2022&lt;/p&gt;

Mind the Gap: Tackling the Gender Pension Gap in Ireland

&lt;h1&gt;Auto-Enrolment: What You Need to Know&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Auto-Enrolment represents one of the most significant changes to retirement savings Ireland has ever seen. With the introduction of the &lt;strong&gt;My Future Fund&lt;/strong&gt; scheme, employees who previously may not have set aside money for retirement will soon find themselves automatically saving.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whether you are a business owner or an employee, it’s important to understand how the scheme works and what it means for you. Bevan Cantrell, Private Client Adviser at Unio explains more. A 4-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What Is Auto-Enrolment?&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At its core, Auto-Enrolment is a mandatory pension scheme aimed at boosting long-term savings. If you meet the eligibility requirements and are not already part of a pension plan, you will automatically be enrolled. While you can opt out after six months, anyone who remains eligible will be re-enrolled every two years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It is important to note that Auto-Enrolment does not replace the State Pension. Instead, it acts as a supplementary fund. Savings will be built from three sources: the employee’s own contributions, an equal contribution from the employer, and an additional top-up from the State. For every €3 an employee contributes, the employer will add €3, and the government will add €1, creating a strong incentive to remain in the scheme.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;When Will It Start?&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;After initial delays, Auto-Enrolment is scheduled to begin on &lt;strong&gt;1 January 2026&lt;/strong&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Who Will Be Enrolled?&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The scheme targets employees who are between the ages of 23 and 60, earn at least €20,000 annually, and are not already contributing to a pension scheme or Personal Retirement Savings Account (PRSA). Certain groups are excluded, including the self-employed, those already contributing to pension schemes, and workers outside the 23–60 age bracket.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;How Contributions Will Work&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Contributions will be phased in gradually over the first 10 years. In the early years, employees will contribute 1.5% of their gross income, matched by 1.5% from their employer, with a 0.5% top-up from the government. By year ten, contributions will reach 6% from employees, 6% from employers, and 2% from the State, resulting in a total contribution of 14% of earnings. Contributions will be capped at an annual salary of €80,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Contribution Structure&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Contributions will increase gradually over 10 years:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;table border=&quot;1&quot; style=&quot;border: none;&quot;&gt;
 &lt;tbody&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;75&quot; style=&quot;width: 56.45pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;Years&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;104&quot; style=&quot;width: 78.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;Employee&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;85&quot; style=&quot;width: 63.75pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;Employer&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;104&quot; style=&quot;width: 78.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;Government&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;57&quot; style=&quot;width: 42.5pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;Total&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;75&quot; style=&quot;width: 56.45pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;1-3&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;104&quot; style=&quot;width: 78.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;1.5%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;85&quot; style=&quot;width: 63.75pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;1.5%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;104&quot; style=&quot;width: 78.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;0.5%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;57&quot; style=&quot;width: 42.5pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;3.5%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;75&quot; style=&quot;width: 56.45pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;4-6&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;104&quot; style=&quot;width: 78.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;3%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;85&quot; style=&quot;width: 63.75pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;3%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;104&quot; style=&quot;width: 78.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;1%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;57&quot; style=&quot;width: 42.5pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;7%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;75&quot; style=&quot;width: 56.45pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;7-9&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;104&quot; style=&quot;width: 78.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;4.5%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;85&quot; style=&quot;width: 63.75pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;4.5%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;104&quot; style=&quot;width: 78.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;1.5%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;57&quot; style=&quot;width: 42.5pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;10.5%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;tr&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;75&quot; style=&quot;width: 56.45pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;10+&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;104&quot; style=&quot;width: 78.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;6%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;85&quot; style=&quot;width: 63.75pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;6%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;104&quot; style=&quot;width: 78.0pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;2%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
   &lt;td colspan=&quot;1&quot; rowspan=&quot;1&quot; valign=&quot;top&quot; width=&quot;57&quot; style=&quot;width: 42.5pt; border-top: none; border-left: none; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;&quot;&gt;&lt;p style=&quot;margin-bottom: 0cm;&quot;&gt;14%&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
  &lt;/tr&gt;
 &lt;/tbody&gt;
&lt;/table&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Contributions are capped at &lt;strong&gt;€80,000 annual salary&lt;/strong&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The Advantages&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For many workers, Auto-Enrolment will provide their first real opportunity to build a retirement nest egg. The matching contributions from employers effectively double what employees put in, while the government’s additional support further enhances savings. The system is also designed to be straightforward, with simple investment options, making it easier for those unfamiliar with pensions to participate.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The Drawbacks&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That said, Auto-Enrolment is not without limitations. Unlike traditional pension schemes, it does not offer income tax relief on employee contributions. Investment choice is restricted to just three levels of risk—low, medium, and high—and additional voluntary contributions will not be permitted. If an individual wishes to make AVCs they will have to set up their own pension, for example a AVC PRSA, to hold those funds, The scheme also sets a fixed retirement age of 66, which may not suit everyone. Higher earners may find the €80,000 salary cap restrictive.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Alternatives for Employers / Business Owners&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is a common question we are getting from business owners at the moment.&nbsp;Employers do have the option of avoiding Auto-Enrolment by offering their own occupational pension schemes. These alternatives can often provide more flexibility, such as tax relief at marginal rates, broader investment options, and the ability to make additional voluntary contributions. For higher earners in particular, employer-run schemes may offer greater benefits than the My Future Fund.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A business owner can set up a pension contract for anyone in the business. The most common one we see them set up is for themselves, however it can also be set up for key employees or a family member who works in the business, a spouse being a typical case.&nbsp;In the case of a spouse, there is the opportunity to fund up at a minimum €800,000 to a pension to get out the tax-free lump sum of €200,000 for the spouse, particularly if the business owner themselves is already over the Standard Fund Threshold (SFT) or fully funded up to €2 million. It is important to note that the family member needs to be genuinely employed in the business and that these decisions be made in the context of the overall business financial plan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Final Thoughts&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Auto-Enrolment marks a major step forward in strengthening Ireland’s retirement system. While the scheme may not suit every worker or employer, it ensures that more people are given the opportunity to save for the future, especially those who may not have considered it before. With contributions from employers and the government boosting individual savings, Auto-Enrolment is set to play a key role in improving retirement readiness across the country.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;About the Author&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Bevan Cantrell is an experienced Financial Adviser with 20+ years in the financial services industry, helping both personal and business clients put effective financial solutions in place. His expertise lies in the areas of Retirement &amp; Estate Planning, Portfolio Management, and Investment Advice.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Review Your Pension&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Invest time now to plan the pension you deserve with Unio.&lt;/strong&gt; It will be time well spent. You might be surprised by how much more you could contribute with the right guidance. A quick 30-minute conversation with one of our expert advisers could unlock significant opportunities for your future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To book your pension review, &lt;a href=&quot;http://unio.ie/pensions2025&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;visit our pension page,&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;strong&gt; &lt;/strong&gt;fill out the short form and one of our expert advisers will be in touch to arrange a call at a time that suits you.&lt;/p&gt;

Understanding Auto Enrolment

&lt;h1&gt;Shadow Wars&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Quite some years ago, at an evening gathering in Moscow, I had the pleasure of interviewing Natalya Kaspersky (in 1997 she founded the cyber security firm Kaspersky Lab&nbsp;with her then husband Eugene - he and many Kaspersky Lab colleagues had previously worked in the KGB).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I put a question to her regarding the growing number of Russian entrepreneurs, who seemed to thrive in a range of countries – the US, Canada, Germany and so on – but I was surprised by her answer – that the talent of the new entrepreneurial class was entirely due to the Russian state, its educational system and various socio-political institutions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Today, not unlike both America and China, the Russian state and the notion of entrepreneurship are at odds. Many wealthier, young Russians lurk in Dubai, Cyprus, Georgia or parts of Asia, and the domestic labour market in Russia has been badly damaged by the war in Ukraine. Tellingly in the context of Natalya Kaspersky’s comments, much research talent has been directed into military focused technologies, and more broadly Russia’s ‘War Economy’ has become the only game in town.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This has created opportunities and dependencies for Russia. On one hand, together with China, and Iran, Russia is now a key part of an energy empire – that trades commodities and builds commodity supply chains for at least one half of the world (India is shifting into this sphere). Both Russia and China have their claws into Africa, in a sinister repeat of what Tom Pakenham called the ‘Scramble for Africa’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In contrast, Russia’s isolation and mono-sectoral economy leave it heavily dependent on China – some 90% of high-tech imports into Russia come from China, and it is yet unclear what financial support it gets from Beijing. In a week when Argentina’s economy and financial markets spluttered to a halt and triggered a rescue by Washington, Russia risks becoming China’s ‘Argentina’ if that makes sense.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are however a few lessons for Western policymakers from Russia’s war economy, the first of which relates to debt. An under-remarked point is that Russia’s debt to GDP is only (officially) 20% which at least means it is not constrained by a huge debt burden, unlike the US, Britain, France, China, Italy and Japan. As the historian Niall Ferguson has remarked, no empire that has paid more to service its debt than its military has survived. In the future, indebtedness and military strength will be inter-related.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In 2008, after its partial invasion of Georgia, a post-mortem took place on the relatively poor state of the army (its training, equipment, and tactics) and hence began a modernisation process in earnest. Many critics would say that elements of this – such as the structure and training of the army have failed completely, but other elements, notably military technology are a lot better. Germany, Spain, and Italy all need, or are about to embark on modernisations of their armies, while other countries like Ireland will need to remake their armies almost from scratch. In this respect, in a more contested world, there is a premium on getting military modernisation right.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second element of this, which is being felt in cities like Copenhagen, Warsaw and Berlin this week is Russia’s conception of total war. In 2021, a few months before the invasion of Ukraine we wrote (&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2021/11/13/great-war-to-total-war/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!mtc7dj3Qi7esMh-ryWKbDKvavm5J4Pkw-te1zgJZunsB4sorRiH2_OvyvkEdIbQ3vLqai8qnmXZGNN44X4Xznmzq$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;from Great War to Total War&lt;/a&gt;) about the now Russian army chief General Gerasimov’s doctrine of total war, which is a view of conflict that covers many strategies such as cyber, border testing, propaganda, and covert attacks, for example. This approach is very much on display across Eastern Europe – the encouragement of discord in Bosnia, the hollowing out of Hungarian politics and in particular the harnessing of Belarus as a form of geopolitical attack dog against the EU.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this regard, the incursion of drones and jets into European airspace, with the added spice of cyber-attacks, is a sign of Russia stressing and probing European defences, and most importantly, testing the commitment of the US to NATO. My worry is that an accident or an escalation cannot be far off, and the risk that the Ukraine conflict spills into Europe cannot be ignored. Indeed, military planners in Germany and France are warning of the need for thousands more hospital beds to accommodate the casualties that might result from conflict with Russia.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;European military planners should focus more on disabling Russia’s economy, which is struggling.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While GDP growth just popped into positive territory, the economy is in a rolling recession of sorts, or at best a period of impoverished stagflation. The labour market, banking sector and consumer sector are points of vulnerability. A longer-term effect is that the potential of the economy is being hollowed out by the effects of military Keynesianism. The US department of defence has started to add financial market experts to its strategy teams to plot the vulnerability of enemy economies, Europe should do the same. Its sanctions regime is only half baked, and there is still plenty of low hanging fruit – such as the enablement of Russian oil and gas exports by Greek ship owners, the ongoing flux of Russian money through Austria, Cyprus and other EU states not to mention the flow of Russian tourists.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then, there’s plenty more that can be done to disable Russian banks and companies, and to stop proxy trade across parts of Eastern Europe and the ‘Stans’. Europe is already in a shadow war with Russia and will get little help from the current US administration. It needs to focus on Russia’s weak points.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Shadow Wars

&lt;h1&gt;Calm Credits&lt;/h1&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this month’s Global Macro Council (GMC), discussions centred on the unusual dynamic of European corporate bonds trading at yields below government debt, underscoring the strength of corporate balance sheets relative to rising sovereign liabilities. The Council considered whether corporates are emerging as alternative “safe assets” and how their liquidity could position them as key financiers of infrastructure and AI.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We were delighted to be joined by guest speakers -David Oneglia, TS Lombard and Nicola Mai and Saurabh Sud, PIMCO.&nbsp;Thank you for your valued input.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Unio-GMC-Outlook-September-2025.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;More in this month's GMC Outlook&lt;/strong&gt;, &lt;/a&gt;text included below.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Corporate Bonds Rise&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A recent headline in the Financial Times (‘French companies borrowing costs fall below governments’ , 14 September) detailed how over 70 European firms’ investment grade debt trades at yields lower than that of France. This unusual development (between 2000 and 2020, there was a brief period where up to 20 European firms’ debt traded at a lower yield than France) signals a number of emerging trends in the debt markets. The first is that corporate balance sheets are in relatively good health (in most developed economies the nonfinancial private sector debt to GDP has been falling since 2015 according to the OECD), whilst government debt in the G7 and China has risen to record levels. Indeed, countries that collectively contribute 60% of the world’s GDP (USA, China, Japan, UK, France and Italy) have, on average, debt to GDP ratios of over 100%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Corporates Vs Governments&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that context, at least two questions present themselves, are some corporates replacing government bonds as ‘safe assets’ and secondly, will cash rich corporates become more critical drivers of infrastructure and the emerging AI ecosystem, effectively replacing governments as the lead investor in these areas. These are very long-term trends, and arguably need to be tested in recession like conditions.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the medium term, narrow spreads are likely to persist, particularly in Europe, where inflation remains stable or is weakening, banks are expanding their balance sheets, and many European corporates are recovering from a lean 2023–2024.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Market View&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Many research and investment firms we have spoken with – notably TS Lombard and PIMCO – focus on France as a source of volatility across fixed income markets. This shouldn’t impact corporate bond markets, save in a dramatically negative scenario. Indeed, several factors—such as France’s pivotal role in European bond markets—tie it closely to the eurozone system. As a result, the ECB must be mindful in terms of liquidity provision.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, the rise in government debt across the major economies is a factor that drives fixed income investors in corporate bonds to take less exposure to longer dated bonds – granted the risk that long dated government bond yields rise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For the time being, the expectation is that credit markets and equity markets move in tandem, the one difference being that in equities exposure to AI is concentrated in the very large stocks, but on the credit side, it is in private credit.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, the corporate bond market is perhaps less exposed to any ‘bubble’ (in stocks or AI) than in previous business cycles and should therefore continue to offer steady returns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Let’s Talk&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio is a wealth management firm built around our clients – with a strong focus on personal service, trusted advice and access to our experienced investment team. We work closely with individuals, families and businesses to create long-term, strategic financial plans to help meet your goals by guarding, guiding and growing your wealth,&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Calm Credits

&lt;p&gt;Dale Duignan, a planner in Unio Wealth Management’s financial planning team explores whether combining pensions from past jobs into your current workplace scheme is really the smart move. While it may cut down on admin, it could also reduce flexibility, limit investment choices and, trigger unexpected fees or tax bills. Before consolidating, it is crucial to weigh the risks against the convenience. A 3-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A common question we get from clients is whether they should combine pensions from previous employment with their current occupational pension. A perfectly valid question as combining your pensions into one scheme for the sake of simplicity, administrative ease and less paperwork can be a solution, but it is not always the correct choice. Irish pension legislation provides compelling reasons to keep your pension benefits separate.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Access Flexibility&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you have pension benefits from previous employments or in a Personal Retirement Bond (PRB), you can access them from age 50. By amalgamating your deferred pensions with your current scheme, you lose the flexibility of drawing them down early as you must either reach normal retirement age or leave your current employment to access the overall pot. If you move them to a Personal Retirement Savings Account (PRSA) you lose access to the benefits until you reach age 60 or fully retire from all employments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Retirement Planning &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having a few different pension pots affords you the opportunity of a phased retirement. By drawing down your pensions at various times, you can access lump sums as you need them, and the remainder of your pensions stay invested. This can be advantageous as they continue to grow, so does your future tax-free lump sums (TFLS). If you do not require the income from the balance after the TFLS, this avoids paying tax on imputed distributions from Approved Retirement Funds (ARF) or annuity income.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Retiring Outside Ireland &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would like the flexibility of retiring abroad, leaving your pension in an occupational scheme allows you to transfer your Irish pension abroad. If you transfer you benefit to a PRSA, this will trigger a taxable event if you move your pension abroad in the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Loss of Benefits &amp; Guarantees&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You may have benefits or guarantees on your existing plan that you may lose if you transfer. If you are a member of a defined contribution occupational pension scheme, you have the option of a salary and service TFLS on draw down. Depending on your final salary and length of service, this can provide a greater lump sum than the 25% lump sum from a PRSA. Your retained pension may also have some guarantees built in that you can avail of at retirement, such as guaranteed annuity rates.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Investment Diversification&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;By consolidating your pensions into one pot, you could be reducing the overall diversification of your portfolio. Some clients like the idea of having their pensions spread across multiple providers and funds that each provider can offer.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Fees &amp; Charges&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If your deferred pension is in an occupational scheme, often the fees and charges are lower than individual contracts such as PRSA &amp; PRB contracts. Another consideration is the cost of transferring an occupational pension to a PRSA if the value is greater than €10,000. The reason for this is a Certificate of Benefit Comparison is required, and this can cost between €1,000 to €3,000 depending on the type of occupational pension.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In conclusion, consolidating your pensions can be a smart move to simplify your financial life- but it is not always the best fit for everyone. From flexibility and investment choice to fees and potential tax implications, there is a lot to weigh up. Before making any decisions, speak with your adviser who can assess your individual circumstances and help you make the most of your retirement savings. A little guidance now could mean a lot more peace of mind later.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Dale Duignan CFP® is a financial planner in Unio Wealth Management’s Financial Planning Team and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Reviewing Your Pension Now is Time Well Spent&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You might be surprised by how much more you could contribute with the right guidance. A quick 30-minute conversation with one of our expert advisers could unlock significant opportunities for your future. &lt;strong&gt;Invest time now to plan the pension you deserve with Unio.&lt;/strong&gt;&nbsp;It will be time well spent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/pensions2025&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Visit our pension page&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt; fill out the short form and one of our expert advisers will be in touch to arrange a call at a time that suits you.&lt;/p&gt;

One Pot or Not? Think Before You Merge Your Pensions.

&lt;p&gt;One of the pleasures of writing this note is the feedback from readers and the subsequent debate – usually by email, sometimes over a coffee or pint, depending on my travels. The latest such exchange – from a reader in Australia, too far for a pint – related to the looming fiscal catastrophe that uniquely grips most of the major G7 economies and China. Some 60% of the world’s GDP is encumbered by debt to GDP of 100% or more, and untypically large deficits in the context of a business cycle expansion phase.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The question from Australia was ‘how does it all kick off?’ in the sense of when does the next debt crisis begin? I’ve been pondering this since making the BBC documentary ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001styj__;!!O22_8FOSssc!iJJMlITHdEQk2SkmOaKBqlWC448Y-3b2Syg6eLmwygcKvdg2ceGXrkxipRWvt009N3f-Mn1CKr8yH8Zhr8AYWaWe$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Waking up to World Debt?&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;but still don’t have a clear view on what might trigger a crisis, and am mindful of Rudiger Dornbusch’s maxim that imbalances accumulate for longer than you think, and then turn sharply quicker than one would think.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that respect I think a debt crisis will be soap operatic, and unravel in various stages, not unlike a good Netflix series. In particular it will have a number of distinct characteristics – the historically unprecedented fact that so many large economies are indebted and will all try to escape the debt trap at the same time, and the potential transfer in economic power between corporates (not hugely indebted).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are a few potential starting points. A dramatic one could be a loss of faith in a major central bank, from the point of view of markets losing confidence that the likes of the Bank of Japan can continue to hoover up that nation’s bond market, without financial consequence.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A more conventional scenario, from an orthodox point of view, is the idea of sustainability, which Keynes defined curtly as&lt;em&gt;&nbsp;‘&lt;/em&gt;‘&lt;em&gt;when it has become clear that the claims of the bondholders are more than the taxpayers can support’.&nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;A lumpier definition&nbsp;comes from institutions like the IMF and World Bank whose standard analysis aims to assess whether&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;‘&lt;em&gt;In general terms, public debt can be regarded as sustainable when the primary balance needed to at least stabilize debt under both the baseline and realistic shock scenarios is economically and politically feasible, such that the level of debt is consistent with an acceptably low rollover risk and with preserving potential growth at a satisfactory level.”&nbsp;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that respect, the conditions for a debt bust might start with a recession, where two problems might occur – the lack of fiscal space to cushion a recession and the political side-effects of this (from riots to split governments), and the immediate ‘discovery’ by markets of those bond markets that are still considered safe havens and those where country credit risk is high (i.e. France).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In particular, the inability of some governments to stimulate their economies without taking on more debt could lead to a deeper recession that might trigger a significant drop in asset values (bad for real estate loans and private credit). Concurrently a new set of bond safe havens might emerge (Norway, Ireland, Netherlands and Germany), whilst previously stable markets (Belgium) might sell-off.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At this early stage, a lot of focus will be on central banks, and those with the credibility and capacity to act to absorb market stress, will likely see their currencies well bid (the euro could be a surprise here). My instinct is that in the case of the Federal Reserve, which might well be a component of the US Treasury under the Trump administration, the fear of highly unorthodox policies will drive the dollar down, rather than up, as is often the case in a crisis.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A further concern is that in a break with the last seventy or so years of policy making, the US will no longer act as the coordinator of a crisis rescue plan. International economics is becoming more competitive and more game theoretic, such that a debt crisis rescue plan will look more like the COVID crisis, where there is a stark lack of collaboration between the large economies, who will tend to prefer their own, localised rescue plans. To this end, currencies will be very volatile. And that’s just for a start.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

How does it all kick off?

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In ten or so years’ time, the question that business leaders, some politicians and policymakers, not to mention the public at large in the Western world, will likely have on their minds is ‘Is a Restoration Possible?’&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This thought was prompted by a visit through some of the older parts in England -Salisbury and Dorset, followed by a trip to New York for the McKinsey Global Strategy Summit. There are parallels between the two worlds.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the middle of 17th century England, the arrest (in 1646) and subsequent death of King Charles I, led to a historic experiment with democracy (in which the Levellers were prominent),., which took a wrong turn (Cromwell positioned himself as Lord Protector). This period was known as the Interregnum – a bit like the current German concept of Zeitenwende - and came to an end after the death of Cromwell and the return of monarchy with the installation of Charles II as king in 1660 (The Restoration). &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In many parts of England, notably Dorset, the Restoration was problematic because of lingering political and religious divides owing to the rivalries that were bred by the civil war. The overturning of Puritan laws and social restrictions was also controversial in parts, though the Restoration also produced a mini cultural renaissance.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The story of the transition from the uncertainty and experimentation of the Interregnum to the old order of the Restoration might appear interesting but obscure to some readers, but as a template, it doesn’t fit badly on the new, evolving world order. We have left the thirty-year-old ‘regime’ of globalisation and are moving into the Interregnum – which will see the old order unravel and may not provide many clear indications as to what kind of equilibrium the world settles into. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The transition through the Interregnum will have many wondering if a return to the many boons and benefits of globalisation is possible (‘a Restoration’), whilst others may believe that the vandalization of globalisation produces changes that are so profound that they are irreversible (A Restoration is not possible).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A Restoration would see a rebound in the health of democracy, civil public life, a trade outlook characterised by a reversal of tariffs, greater freedom of labour and better policing of trade conflicts. Two of the great bonuses of globalization, low, stable inflation and the absence of major wars, would return.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;At this point, some seven months into the second Trump administration, we are accelerating away from the rosy Restoration scenario. If anything, there is an emerging sense of an ideological consistency across the administration (some people still mention Project 2025 for instance), and an accompanying desire to reshape America permanently.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;An extrapolation of the events of the past few weeks might see the following trends – a breakdown of NATO, the IMF and World Trade Organisation, an open conflict between Europe and Russia, the emergence of a regional consensus between China and the larger countries across Asia, huge currency volatility (around the generally weaker dollar), the arrival of a major African power (Nigeria?), the collapse in late 2026 of the AI Bubble, the existence of the most extreme levels of wealth inequality (mostly in the US and India) ever recorded and the attendant socio-political consequences of this, and finally, to maintain the cheery tone, the undermining of the notion of the international rule of law and corporate contract law. I am very likely erring on the pessimistic side for dramatic effect, but few of these trends lead to a ‘Restoration’. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A less dramatic outlook, is that the path towards a ‘new world order’ (we have sketched this path out in a previous note ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/thelevelling.blog/2024/03/23/are-we-there-yet/__;!!O22_8FOSssc!jJ5DzHgvVPyt0eVAWkxQEIZ9oeH1DstmJs7Rg5iymE7_FwsFIkBMOpOrS9JUbuUVZWClgvTJi-UeY7rB13bYylUJ$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Are We There Yet&lt;/a&gt;?’) could still shift towards a ‘Restoration’ but it will first be strewn with several mountain like obstacles (a friend invoked James Martin’s similar idea of a canyon – from Martin’s book ‘The Meaning of the 21st Century’). &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;These obstacles are, in my view, a climate crisis, a debt crisis and a crisis of democracy or governance. The way in which the international community tackles these crises will determine whether we get to a Restoration or not, and the key policy characteristic will be collaboration across the major regions. In this context, one of the early confirmations that globalization was dead, was the absence of cooperation between the US, China and to a less extent Europe, during the COVID crisis. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;To take the example of a debt crisis, the absence of a ‘committee to save the world’ would likely see far greater market volatility, far greater damage to asset prices and a post crisis environment where banking systems and economies take longer to recover, do so unevenly and adopt more localised corporate governance regimes in the post-crisis period (China is the critical country here). Alternatively, collaboration across central banks, an internationally adjudicated resolution to a (government debt crisis) would lessen the financial damage and potentially provide the context for a more global financial system, post the crisis.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I have only started to mull the concept of a Restoration, but my fear is that a full, coherent Restoration will only occur after various crises, and all of the bad options have first been exhausted.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years’ experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Restoration?

&lt;p&gt;The last thing anyone wants to have to think about when they have just lost a loved one is a tax bill. Building your legacy isn’t easy and you don’t want to see your hard work swallowed up by the tax man when the next generation receive their inheritance.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are numerous ways that you can tax efficiently pass assets to your family, both during your lifetime and as part of your legacy. The earlier you start, the bigger the potential tax savings.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Capital Acquisitions Tax (CAT)&lt;/strong&gt; is charged on assets that you receive as a gift or inheritance and the current rate of this tax is 33%. Of course, you can receive a certain level of wealth this way tax free, within ‘threshold’ limits. These limits depend on your relationship to the recipient of the gift or inheritance.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Parents typically look to pass their wealth to the next generation where there is a surplus of wealth, or likely to be one over time. Where a gift or inheritance from a parent to child, the first €400,000 given or inherited, can be received tax free. Beyond this though, it’s a different story. The thresholds are less generous between different groups.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://unio.my.salesforce.com/cms/delivery/media/MCOQSE43FS6ZCNTMR6SVU63B7U4I?oid=00D7Q000006G3wgUAC&amp;channelId=0ap7Q000000go4UQAQ&quot; alt=&quot;Lifetime CAT Thresholds&quot; data-fileid=&quot;20YJ7000000fy49&quot; data-contentkey=&quot;MCOQSE43FS6ZCNTMR6SVU63B7U4I&quot; data-cms-filename=&quot;Lifetime CTA Thresholds.PNG&quot;&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In fact, the current threshold from parent to child is quite low when you consider that the average house price across Ireland is €335,000* with many properties selling for amounts well in excess of this. This can lead to children having to sell an inherited property that may have been owned by a family for some time, simply to meet a tax liability.&nbsp;*source CSO, Property Price Index, April 2024.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So, how can you pass on your wealth and make sure that the next generation can benefit in the way that you would hope?&nbsp;Here are a few planning ideas that might be of benefit to you.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Make a will&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ensure your Estate is divided up on death to make the most of those tax-free thresholds, i.e. leave assets to everyone who has a threshold available to them, including grandchildren and your children’s spouses/partners. Don’t let the laws of intestacy decide who receives the assets you’ve spent your lifetime building up - or the associated tax bill!&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Small Gift Exemption&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;During your lifetime you can gift to your children up to €3,000 every year tax free. In fact, you can gift this amount to as many people as you like each year, without it attracting any tax for the recipient or you – although it is important to make sure you can meet your own needs before you consider gifting. For example, if a couple were to each gift to their two sons, their two daughters-in-law and five grandchildren over the next 20 years, they would reduce the value of their estate on death and gift a total of €1,080,000 – all tax free. This would represent a tax saving of €356,400 – and all without utilising any of the available tax-free thresholds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Consider a savings plan&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you plan to give larger gifts during your lifetime that might lead to the recipient exceeding their lifetime threshold limit, you might consider starting a special type of savings plan, the value of which is specifically used for the payment of CAT. This could be useful if you intend to provide a large gift in the future, perhaps for a property purchase.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What about your pension assets?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you’re already retired, you may have an Approved Retirement Fund (ARF). If an ARF is left, as part of your will, to anyone other than your spouse or children it will be subject to income tax at your marginal rate. Additionally, the remaining balance, after the deduction of income tax, will be further reduced by CAT. Addressing inheritance of ARF specifically in your Will can ensure it doesn’t fall into the residue of your estate and end up being inherited by someone other than your spouse/child.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Consider taking out a life insurance policy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A Section 72 ‘whole of life’ life insurance policy can be taken out specifically for the payment of a CAT liability. The value of the policy itself, where established correctly, is exempt from any CAT. This can provide much-needed cash for your beneficiaries to pay inheritance tax on illiquid assets like property. Furthermore, the pay-out can be larger than the accumulated value of the associated premiums, and unlike other types of life policies, a whole of life policy is guaranteed to pay out on death.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Look at offsetting tax on personal investment assets&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Some investments may be subject to exit tax on death, but this tax can be offset against any CAT incurred by the recipient when they inherit the investment. It’s worth considering leaving such investments specifically to someone who will also incur an inheritance tax liability on receipt of them and can therefore avail of the tax offset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Other assets may be subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) if you gift them during your lifetime. However, if the recipient has used up their lifetime threshold and is subject to CAT on the gift, this CAT can be offset against the CGT you have paid.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you would like to find out more about gifting and legacy planning, speak to your Unio adviser and they will talk you through the best solutions for you or &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch with us here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Smart Inheritance Tax Planning

&lt;p&gt;Oscar Wilde’s line that ‘to lose one parent is a misfortune,&nbsp;to lose both looks like carelessness’ can be applied to politics, notably to France’s earnest President Emmanuel Macron, who may lose his fourth prime minister in just over eighteen months when Francois Bayrou submits his government to the mercy of parliament next week.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The likely fall of the Bayrou cabinet may see another powerless coalition cobbled together, or even a general election. In the near term the risk is of a collision between Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement (old Front National), the bond market and the French state.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That also most surely means the end of the ‘Macronie’, in the sense that Macron is in office but not in power. Polls suggest that few French people would regret or contest this.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It should not have come to this. Unlike many of its neighbours France has generally very good public services, transport and education systems, and Macron has manifestly enlivened the private investment and technology sectors of the economy. Economic growth has been decent by comparison to the UK and Germany at least. Compared to many of its peers and competitors, France is an agreeable and affordable place to live.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, on Macron’s watch, France has become imperilled financially, the issue of immigration and identity still taxes public life to the extent that the Rassemblement is now the largest single party in parliament, and in foreign policy, France has lost sway in Africa and the Middle East, and more generally on the world stage. Another omission, where the broader elite is complicit, is the failure to reform the French democratic system.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that context, there are perhaps three lessons from the whimpering end to the Macron era.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is that the major economies are now well and truly in the ‘Age of Debt’, where the consequences of indebtedness pervade and dominate politics, financial markets, geopolitics and society. The large economies of the world have never been so indebted, and the fact that they are at the same time will ultimately make debt reduction more disorderly. The Trump administration recognises this and is adopting highly unorthodox, risky measures to make its debt load less unsustainable. In Britain, there is widespread recognition of the country’s fiscal fragility, but policy makers are yet highly risk averse in tackling it. That France is in denial will only make the correction all the more painful.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In France, there is scant willingness on the part of the policy elite nor any of the political parties to seriously address France’s financial situation, and like a fancily dressed pauper, it continues to live beyond its means. For the time being, it can hide behind the euro, but its fellow euro-zone member states will soon become vigilant that France does not trigger another European financial crisis. The upshot of this is the loss of economic autonomy for France.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second lesson is for centrist parties in the dwindling number of democracies in the world. In the context of the unravelling of the old, globalised order, amidst interference in European affairs from larger countries, government of the centre need to tackle problems like immigration, debt and geopolitics head on, with more aggression, else the parties of the fringe will capitalise on their inaction. Concretely, this amounts to a very different tempo of politics in Europe, and one that is ultimately more singular.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The third lesson, which is specifically European but that will strike a lesson with many Americans, is that European needs to take control of and change the narrative on its own destiny. European leaders have been far too reactive to the demands of the White House, and the violence of the Kremlin.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A lot of hope was placed on Macron to shape a narrative for Europe in the world, notably so in the absence of clarity of thought and leadership from many other European countries like Germany. Europe’s narrative should be that increasingly, for valuable public goods – democracy, the rule of law, education, healthcare and culture – it is the best place in the world. The problem is in paying for it.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The End of Macron?

&lt;p&gt;Amidst the slew of corporate earnings and macro-economic data released in the past week, two developments struck me, both of which give the impression of the tectonics of geopolitics pushing against each other.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, in the past year the number of children born in the US has caught up with the EU, at close to 3.6 million babies each (though the EU has a bigger population). For comparison, Nigeria – whose population is less than half that of the EU – welcomed 7 million babies last year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Second, in recent months the trend rate of consumer inflation in Japan has surpassed that of the US for the first time in decades, signalling a long awaiting shift in the Japanese economy that has been accompanied by a rise in long-run bond yields (a potentially critical development for the international financial system).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These two examples will give a sense of the rise and fall of nations, that is accelerating since the fall of globalisation (which I date to the effective end of democracy in Hong Kong). This rise and fall – think of countries like football clubs – is also associated by an unravelling of the world order. For example, in a recent note &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/atlas-shrugging&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;‘Atlas Shrugging’&lt;/a&gt;, we detailed how the independence of the Federal Reserve was being undercut by the White House, and the attempt to remove Lisa Cook from the Fed’s rate setting committee confirms that Donald Trump wants to direct the Fed as an engine of his economic policy (as a giant bond buying machine I suspect).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The independent Fed has been one of the pillars of the globalised world system of the past forty years – and the snuffing out of its independence heralds the unravelling of that system. In the same way that the period of globalisation was characterised by low inflation and the absence of major wars – the presence of inflation and conflict today, is a sign that we are moving into ‘something else’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In that context I find myself playing a mind game which I call the ‘Unravelling Rule’. Very simply, it is to identity the principal factors that have supported globalisation and that are positive outcomes of it and identify if and how they are unravelling. The crisis of democracy is one such trend (the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index has fallen to its lowest level in twenty years).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Other certainties are also unravelling – notably the assumption that the USA is an unflinching ally of Europe and many Asian countries, and the possibility that it could even actively undermine them. In this regard, the fact that the Danish government had to summon the US ambassador over the conduct of three Americans in Greenland is troubling, and reflects very badly on the White House.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The danger with the ‘Unravelling Rule’ is that in a chaotic world, it is tempting to see it everywhere. It is more obvious though in the case of the collection of world institutions – the United Nations, IMF, World Bank and World Trade Organisation, who are frequently ignored by the very large economies, and sometimes badly undermined by them (the WTO is an example). These institutions need to be recast, most likely for the benefit of the populous emerging economies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On a more speculative basis, there are at least four trends that have marked the past forty years, and that are now worth watching for a change of course.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is poverty. It is an underestimated facet of globalisation that it helped a billion people rise out of poverty, according to the World Bank. My concern is that in a world where the major economies (2/3 of the world’s GDP) have debt to GDP ratios above 100%, economic precarity may return, and this time to developed countries. We have already noted (&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-road-to-serfdom&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Road to Serfdom&lt;/a&gt;) the extremely high level of inequality in the US and broad economic vulnerability. In Europe, British and French policymakers conjured the spectre of IMF intervention in their economies. In that respect the growing disparity in incomes in the UK regions (relative to London) bears watching.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A second is corporate governance and the rule of law as it extends to international business. We have not seen a rule of law or broad governance crisis in sometime, but the rise of decentralised finance (i.e. crypto), the new idiom of the ‘art of the deal’ in the US, and the geopolitically tinged trade relationships that China is developing worldwide. As a global ‘way of doing things’ gives way to more regional or localised approaches, the watertightness of contracts and the oversight of business relationships is something that businesses will need to consider more carefully.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A true litmus test of the ‘Unravelling’ hypothesis will be the role of US multinationals in the world economy. Described as the ‘B-52s’ of globalisation in the late 1990’s by a prominent trade economist, they have shaped the world economy and come to dominate financial markets. I have lost count of the number of charts circulating that declare that Nvidia for example is worth more than the major European stock markets together. Whilst cash rich, they now face a number of challenges – the difficulty of selling into China as it broadens its technological self-sufficiency, and the collateral damage to overseas sales from the Trump trade and foreign policies, and the rise of more specific local tastes in markets like Africa and India.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A final unravelling, and one I would welcome, is for the EU to unleash its nasty side. In the past forty years the successes of the EU – enlargement, holding the euro together and the creation of a European identity (based on borderless travel the Erasmus programme for example). The likes of Poland and Estonia have benefitted greatly from this, and it is fair to say that the UK would be better off ‘in’ than ‘out’. But, the emphasis has been largely on soft rather than hard power, and in a ‘harder’ world, the EU will need to take a tougher stance in terms of how it projects itself.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are many challenges but three in particular are the potential exclusion of existing and prospective member states like Hungary and Serbia who habitually refuse to act in accordance with EU values and interests, a specifically more aggressive approach to countering sabotage by Russia (and at times China and Iran) in Europe, and then a retaking of the narrative as to what Europe stands for.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

The Unravelling Rule

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Business Insurance for SMEs: Protect Your Company, Partners, and Key Employees&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For business owners, managing risk is just as important as growing the business. Illness or the loss of a key person can have serious financial consequences both personally and professionally. Elizabeth Byrne, private client adviser with Unio, explores how the right protection, from co-director and key person insurance to partnership cover, can help keep your business stable, your team supported, and ownership transitions smooth. A 4-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;What types of cover are there and why do I need it?&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Co-Director Insurance&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When a business partner dies, it is usually their spouse who inherits their shareholding in the company. More often than not, the remaining co-directors and the inheriting next of kin do not wish to run the business together.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This situation can jeopardise the stability of the company. The next of kin may not have the expertise or even the desire to step into the business. At a time when they are grieving, vulnerable, and possibly facing cashflow pressures, poor decisions may be made, putting the company’s future at risk.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Co-Director Insurance provides a solution. It ensures that the company has the funds to buy back the deceased partner’s shares, restoring security and giving the remaining directors full control. Once the policy is in place, the arrangement is legally binding on all parties. On the death of a shareholder, the policy pays out a lump sum that allows the surviving directors to purchase the shares from the next of kin.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Co-Director insurance provides peace of mind and stability for all the Directors. The cover can also be set up to provide serious illness protection. The amount of cover is set up based on company’s turnover and share value.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Key Person Insurance&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As your company grows, you build a team with expert knowledge of your business. Within that team, there are key employees whose skills, experience, and contributions are critical to its success.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The death or long-term illness of one of these individuals can have a serious impact on profits and in some cases, even threaten the long-term viability of the business.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Key Person Insurance provides a financial safety net, giving you the resources to fund recruitment, training, and the transition to a suitable replacement. This protection is especially important for smaller companies, where the loss of a single key employee can create significant financial strain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Partnership Insurance&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Partnership insurance is designed to protect the business interest of partnerships in the event of death or serious illness of one of the partners.&nbsp;Much like co-director insurance, it ensures business continuity of a partnership structure in the event of the death of a partner.&nbsp;The cover ensures cashflow to the partnership to provide the family of the deceased partner a fair price for their inherited share of the partnership. Having this cover in place reduces the possibility of conflict by allowing the remaining business partners to have a financial solution to facilitate the transfer of the ownership.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Summary&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When reviewing my SME clients’ requirements, it is essential to understand the structure of the business and fully assess the risks it may face. The size of the company, the industry in which it operates, and the roles of the directors and key personnel are all critical considerations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Once a policy is in place, it should be reviewed regularly to ensure it continues to meet the business’s needs especially if the company is growing quickly, turnover is rising, or share value is increasing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Business insurance helps you mitigate risks, protect your interests, and ensure long-term stability and continuity, securing the future of your business.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Elizabeth Byrne, CFP® is a private client adviser in Unio Wealth Management’s SME team and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth clients on how they can achieve their financial goals.&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/adviser_callback?name=Elizabeth%20Byrne&amp;segment=Business%20Owners&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Elizabeth may be contacted here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Let’s Talk&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio is a wealth management firm built around our clients – with a strong focus on personal service, trusted advice and access to our experienced investment team. We work closely with individuals, families and businesses to create long-term, strategic financial plans to help meet your goals by guarding, guiding and growing your wealth, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Protecting You and Your Business

&lt;p&gt;At this month’s Global Macro Council (GMC), discussions centred on the mixed signals coming from the US economy, including concerns about a potential recession despite record-high stock market valuations, and the emergence of a “two-speed” economy, with traditional industries on one side and a rapidly growing AI sector on the other.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We were delighted to be joined by guest speakers Ben Lederer and Christo Barker, Fisher Investments and Jeff Schulze, ClearBridge Investments. Thank you for your valued input.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Unio-GMC-Outlook-August-2025.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;More in this month's GMC Outlook&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, text included below.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Not This Time&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Paul Samuelson, the Nobel Prize winning economist once declared that the ‘stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions’. In that spirit, with the US stock market at a record high valuation (the Buffet indicator – the ratio of the stock market capitalisation to GDP – is at an all-time high for example) fears are growing of a dip in US economic activity, and even of a recession.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Mixed Data&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The outlook is complicated by at least two factors. Whilst US and other corporations now have better visibility on the trade and fiscal policies of the Trump government (the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ has passed), there is still some uncertainty as to their effect on the economy. Secondly, a range of rules that in the past have been triggered ahead of recessions, are now flashing ‘red’, but are being countered by other more positive trends.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One example is the Sahm rule which states that when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by half a percentage point, a recession occurs. It triggered earlier this year, but a recession is not obvious.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, within the US labour market, while the pace of hiring has fallen off, the rate of ‘firings’ has not picked up. Equally wage growth is positive.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A further example of an anomaly is the consumer. Consumer confidence has weakened manifestly, but consumer spending maintains a relatively healthy trend, according to data from Fisher Investments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Two-Speed Economy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At one remove, signs are growing of a two-speed economy; the ‘normal’ more traditional one where growth is slower (we note that logistics and transportation stocks are sluggish), and another AI-driven one that is accelerating at speed. Some estimates point to capital expenditure of close to USD 4trn on the AI eco-system (chips, datacentres, energy) by 2028, with much of this being paid for with the cashflow of the large technology firms (and a growing private credit industry). Data from Franklin Templeton shows that data centre capacity in the US will vastly outstrip other major economies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, corporate balance sheets are strong (and earnings very healthy) at this juncture, as are household balance sheets, at a time when the federal deficit and debt level are pushing record levels.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As such, the next phase of growth in the US will very much be driven by the private sector – with a little help from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to make two to three rate cuts between now and next Easter.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Overall, our expectation is that the US economy has entered a soft patch, rather than a recession per se, and that this could endure till late in 2025, before some of the more supportive trends we have flagged, materialise.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Let’s Talk&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Unio is a wealth management firm built around our clients – with a strong focus on personal service, trusted advice and access to our experienced investment team. We work closely with individuals, families and businesses to create long-term, strategic financial plans to help meet your goals by guarding, guiding and growing your wealth,&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

Not This Time

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;I’ve spent a bit of the summer re-reading the work of Charles Kindleberger, an important economist whose career intersected monetary systems and stock market bubbles, two issues that are top of mind for investors and economists today (see last week’s note &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/stable-genius&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;‘Stable Genius’&lt;/a&gt;).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Kindleberger had an interesting career. His PhD advisor at Columbia was Henry Parker Willis (a key architect of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913 and the first Secretary of the Federal Reserve Board that became what we now know as the ‘Fed’). Then, in one of his first jobs at the US Treasury, Kindleberger worked for Harry Dexter White, the interlocutor and ‘rival’ of JM Keynes at the Breton Woods conference.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;To that end, Kindleberger had a very strong sense of the creation of the monetary infrastructure that has built today’s economic world, and he then had the opportunity to play a role in this as one of the architects of the Marshall Plan, which did so much to spur growth in post-war Europe and to cement the view of the USA as the benevolent world power. Benn Steil’s book ‘The Marshall Plan: The Dawn of the Cold War’ is worth a read.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Beyond his policy work, Kindleberger is best known for ‘&lt;em&gt;Manias, Panics and Crashes’&lt;/em&gt;, the best outline of how asset bubbles form and are followed by crashes.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It is highly pertinent today because a variety of stock market valuation indicators (the long-term ‘Shiller Price Earnings ratio’, the ‘Buffet Indicator’ as well as measures of market concentration – the largest ten technology stocks account for 75% of the entire market), point to the kind of market behaviour seen only in market bubbles (like 2001). Consistent with this, various investors, as well as entrepreneurs like OpenAI’s Sam Altman are warning of a ‘bubble’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One test of the bubble thesis is to follow Kindleberger’s theory that asset price bubbles follow a common speculative cycle. According to Kindleberger, bubbles often start with an innovation – in a technology (i.e. railways) or a financial policy or market structure, or even a growth ‘miracle’ (note all the Tiger economies from Hong Kong to Ireland have seen boom/bust cycles) towards which investors channel capital, and then even more as asset prices rise and a narrative around the ‘mania’ begins to build.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This effect helps to loosen the strings of the overall economy and financial sector, but around this point asset prices are reaching incredulous levels as investor euphoria intensifies, drawing in further speculation, until prices then turn down, and the house of cards collapses in a crash. The collapse is always greater when households, institutions and individuals have borrowed on the back of high asset prices, and logically there is greater contagion across the economy.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One lesson from the Kindleberger book is that ‘new’ things – inventions or economic policy liberalizations often provide the spark for a new speculative bubble, that can grow and destabilise a financial system if enough speculative capital is driven towards it.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;AI is a case in point. For context, Morgan Stanley estimates that over USD 3 trillion will be invested in AI related infrastructure (data centres, energy), with about half of that coming from the cashflow of the large technology companies, and the rest from private credit. It is clear that the large technology firms (from Microsoft to Nvidia) are the driving force behind this boom, especially so in the context of the fiscal weakness of most Western governments.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The recent results season was instructive in this respect. Often in a bubble, the dot.com one being a good example, the earnings associated with the bubble are only ‘prospective’ or somehow inflated. This is not the case with the large technology firms so far – by and large they report very strong earnings, which helps to soften the bubble argument. The catch is the circularity of the capital expenditure by the large technology firms – META for example is spending aggressively on data centres and chips and running down its cash levels. To that extent, the large tech firms are making a bold bet to get ahead in the AI game, but it is a concentrated and possibly existential bet.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;If the strong cashflow position of the firms at the centre of this bubble is unusual in the context of the Kindleberger framework, two other factors also stand out as untypical.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The first is that short- and long-term interest rates in the major economies are close to ‘neutral’, neither too hot not too cold. Bubbles are often characterised, or preceded by ‘easy money’, though it has to be recognised that the last decade has been one of near continual stimulus (from QE to fiscal spending).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The other unusual factor is that the stock bubble is occurring against a backdrop of intense geopolitical and economic policy uncertainty – from great power competition to an unravelling trade order to a reconfiguring of America’s role in the world. The one way in which these dislocations fit the bubble narrative is that AI is a strategic asset, a ‘must-have’, that leads to an environment where for example the US government aims to take a strategic stake in Intel.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Having written in early 2024 of a ‘Bubble Brewing’, I think we are now ‘in’ an AI centric market bubble, though not at the end of it in the sense of there being a ‘mania’ proper. In the short term, we might well see a wobble in AI stocks, before they pick up again.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In a future note I will detail my own experiences of the dot.com and European real estate bubbles, which leads me to think that ‘we are not there yet’ in terms of the evolution of this bubble. It will end with the absurd – Nvidia encroaching on a USD 10 trn valuation, food companies publicly adopting AI and seeing their values double, wild predictions that AI can treble productivity and wipe out the debt, and on the flip side, the structural risks to energy and jobs markets that AI could pose.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;But, we are not there yet.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Have a great week ahead, Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Manias, Panics and Crashes

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There should be a rule in financial markets that, at some stage, a financial product or strategy will do the opposite of what its name suggests – we might call it the ‘inverse Ronseal hypothesis’ (Ronseal paint is famous for promising that ‘it does what it says on the tin’). In this sense, think of how the ‘risk free’ assets of the textbooks perform under inflation, how ‘low volatility’ structured products blew up spectacularly and how in the 1980’s America’s Savings and Loan banks went bust, because they failed to save and lend properly.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Into this realm steps the ‘stablecoin’, an asset that is growing speedily and that is forecast to become the solution to many problems – the US national debt, a sluggish and conservative banking system and the impoverishment of emerging economies.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;A neat way to think of stablecoins is to first consider the gold standard – money backed by physical holdings of gold – and then conceive of them as a digital coin (token or ‘betting chip’) that is backed by a well-established, reputable asset (increasingly, US Treasuries).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The idea is that because they are backed by a stable financial asset, the value of the stablecoin should not fluctuate and should therefore form the basis for transfers of money and value. Yet, some stablecoins are not fully backed by Treasuries and others are backed by crypto ‘money’, which quite obviously renders them less than stable. Bear in mind that a crypto coin called ‘FartCoin’ is inexplicably worth USD 1.4 bn, which is a lot of comedy value compared to zero intrinsic value.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In the past year, the use of stablecoins has surged, notably so in the case of those backed by Treasuries.&nbsp;Stablecoins are now the 18th&nbsp;largest holder of Treasuries (with USD 150bn) just after Norway, India and Brazil.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The vast majority of stablecoins are used in crypto trading, but the potential they hold to revolutionise the payments industry is startling. Payments by stablecoin are nearly instantaneous (as opposed to having to wait 1-5 days with banking systems), carry a very low transaction charge and should make payments across borders easier. Indeed, the volume of stablecoin transactions is creeping close to the activity that the major credit card firms – Visa and MasterCard generate (Visa has its own crypto/stablecoin division).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;Consistent with the instinct that is prevalent in markets and politics to see all new things as solutions to old problems, stablecoins are being promoted as a new source of demand for Treasuries, and therefore a new channel through which the US national debt can be nourished.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;This is a dangerous idea, because whilst stablecoins are a digital join between the old financial world (Treasuries) and the new (‘defi’ or decentralised finance), their growth may set in train a situation where the tail starts to wag the dog. What I mean by this is that even though an individual stable coin, backed 100% by Treasuries is stable, the infrastructure and the people behind the stablecoin network, and the crypto world, may not themselves be stable.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;There are several risks.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;One relates to Gresham’s Law, which stated that ‘bad money, will drive out the good’. In the same way that 16th&nbsp;century bankers and traders had an incentive to use coins (which all had the same face value) with some lower quality metal. Equally, certain stablecoin providers will have an incentive to only partially back coins with reliable assets or to misreport the extent to which coins are backed by ‘good assets’, and in the event – a recession or financial crisis – that these assets are ‘called’, there could very easily be a bank run style collapse in a few stablecoins, with contagion across the field.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;As such, the large stablecoin providers may submit themselves to central bank regulation, to ensure that there is hard evidence that coins are backed by stable assets – but the quid pro quo of this (that they surrender details of the people using stablecoins) may be unpalatable.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;It is also worth recalling that over the past five years, there have been a range of scandals in the crypto world, and many crypto exchanges have collapsed or been shut down by regulators. To that end there is a counterparty risk inherent in the stablecoin system. Also, the loss or theft of wallets and keys to crypto assets makes the stablecoin system highly vulnerable, at a time when financial institutions are investing even more in security.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;From a macro pint of view, it is more likely that stablecoins effectively digitise the grey and black economies (so that there is no net financial or economic effect) or that they have very strong appeal in emerging economies with poor financial infrastructure. If that is the case, the economic effect will be to draw capital out of emerging market economies, enfeebling them (and their currencies and bond markets). Tether is very popular in Turkey, whose financial system has been significantly weakened by the current government, whose autocratic style incentivises business to transact ‘outside’ the existing economic system.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;The other major risk is that the obvious attractions of stablecoins as cheap and speedy means of switching money, implies an undercutting of the profitability of banks and payment companies, especially if savers can start to earn yield (technically called a ‘reward’) on stablecoins. The incumbent financial system will not like this, and whilst the larger financial institutions will likely adapt to them, many smaller ones will suffer. From a regulatory point of view, a weaker banking system is unwelcome, and the very fact that fewer dollars are taken ‘out of sight’ of regulators is not good either. There are already a number of regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, ‘MICA’ in Europe and the Genius Act in the US for instance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;In these ways, stablecoins can make financial systems more volatile, and of diminished quality, and higher volatility, unless they are brought under the wing of regulators (which is anathema to most in the crypto world) or adopted by the large, incumbent financial institutions. Reflecting this, researchers at the ECB&lt;a href=&quot;https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#m_4302503896746559954__ftn1&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;[1]&lt;/a&gt;&nbsp;found that in periods where crypto assets (i.e. Bitcoin) were volatile, stablecoins exhibited volatility that was not evident in the assets used to back them (Treasuries).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;From a geopolitical, or geo-economic point of view, the spread of stablecoins that are backed by safe dollar-based assets (Treasuries) is at least a means of spreading dollarization to grey and emerging economies. The question for central banks like the ECB is how best to approach stablecoins.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p style=&quot;text-align: justify;&quot;&gt;My sense is that there are two avenues to follow. The first is to encourage financial institutions, corporates and banks to develop stablecoins, in a way that permits later adoption of a digital euro. The other is to push a euro-stablecoin into Russia, Belarus, the 'Stans' and generally the former USSR countries not in or wanting to get into the EU to deprive the 'rouble' zone if we can put it that way, of money that flows through its large grey economy.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Stable Genius

&lt;p&gt;We are delighted to share that Unio Wealth Management and Unio Employee Benefits have been shortlisted in the following four categories of the 2025 Irish Pensions Awards:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Pensions Consultancy of the Year&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Pension Scheme Administrator of the Year&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Communication Award&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;-Wealth Management Award&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This recognition is a testament to the hard work and dedication of our great teams. A sincere thank you to our clients, partners, and colleagues, we couldn’t have achieved this without you.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Congratulations to our fellow nominees and we look forward to celebrating the best of our industry at the awards in November.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Check out the full list: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.europeanpensions.net/irishawards/shortlist25.php&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Irish Pensions Awards 2025 Shortlist&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Irish Pensions Awards &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now in their 14th year, the Irish Pensions Awards - organised by European Pensions -&nbsp;provide recognition to those pension funds, pension providers, advisers and pension professionals who strive to maintain the highest standards of excellence and professionalism in everything they do, despite the challenging economic and political landscape they find themselves operating in. The awards will take place 4 November 2025 at The Round Room, The Mansion House, Dublin.&lt;/p&gt;

Irish Pension Awards

&lt;p&gt;In ancient Greece, the ‘Titanomachy’ was a battle between the Olympian gods (like Zeus) and the older gods, the Titans. Once victorious, Zeus condemned his vanquished opponents, notably Atlas, who was forced to carry the burden of the heavens, for eternity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Though it is a stretch of the comparison that classical scholars should not forgive, when thinking of Atlas’ feat of endurance, I have central banks in mind, and in particular of the Federal Reserve, which has especially in the past fifty years borne the weight of investor expectations and the hopes of politicians. The importance of the Fed cannot be underestimated – academics have shown that returns, volatility, and trading volumes are higher than average around the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Fed has been at the epicentre of every financial crisis rescue effort through the globalization era – from the Asian, Russia and LTCM crises, to the global financial crisis where the intellectual burden of finding a way of mending markets was shouldered by Ben Bernanke, to the recent responsiveness of the institution during COVID. If anything, the Fed has been guilty of doing too much in recent years, and the consequences of its long deployment of quantitative easing are still becoming evident.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On one hand, the large central banks, led by the Fed, are the glue that has kept the political economic peace throughout this thirty- or so-year period, but on the other, this peace has permitted the accumulation of huge amounts of debt, and has shielded politicians from the fiscal consequences of their actions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now, the independence of the Fed is about to be sacrificed, as the president appoints Stephen Miran to replace Adriana Kugler who is stepping down, and a prospective chair to replace Jerome Powell who is due to step down in a year’s time as head of the Fed. The unwritten assumption is that, like never before, the Fed’s rate setting committee will sway to the mood of the White House. Miran's appointment is a sure sign of this.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is problematic at many levels. The suite of policies enacted by the president – from deportation to tariffs – means that the US economy is now suffering from stagflation (sticky inflation and low growth). Strip away the blinding effect of wild investment in AI and corporate America looks like corporate Europe.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stagflation is difficult for investors and central banks to navigate, and markets are pricing out rate cuts from this Fed. Indeed, this is a very strange rate cycle. Historically, the Fed leads rate cutting cycles and other central banks follow, but the Bank of England, ECB, Royal Bank of Canada, and other smaller central banks like the SNB, have been hacking away at rates whilst the Fed has not moved this year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the long-term, the potential politicisation of the Fed will augment uncertainty. There is already talk in central banking circles that in the event of a financial crisis, the politicised Fed may not be willing to open swap lines with other central banks, which if it occurred would deepen the economic effects of any crisis. Swap lines across the international financial system have been staples of past rescues, and articles of faith for scholars of monetary systems like Charles Kindleberger.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In such a context, the Fed’s job as lender to (US) banks might also become more complex and ineffective if the large banks were to behave in the same way that the technology companies are now doing (Apple looks to have escaped tariffs by presenting a gift to the president in the White House and promising to invest USD 600bn in the US – it currently invests about USD 43bn). So, in a financial crisis, a large American bank could offer a large loan to the Trump family to extend the Mar-a-Lago resort, if the president sanctioned its main national and international rivals (cynics will ask whether something similar happened in 2009).&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My hunch is that beyond the thrill of lower interest rates (which will likely raise inflation and long-term bond yields), the vision that Trump has in mind for the Fed is something along the lines of the Bank of Japan, which in the past ten years has effectively swallowed the Japanese bond market (the BoJ owns just over 50% of the Japanese bond market). Having the Fed as a monetary hoover to keep bond yields stable will help to dampen some of the risks of indebtedness but will store up greater risks for later.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The appointment of a ‘yes-man’ at the head of the Fed (Kevin Hassett fits this role much more than the other leading candidate Kevin Warsh), will likely spur resistance within the institution, and across the regional Fed banks whose presidents help to make up the rate setting committee. Not only will Fed employees – who are devoted to the institution – worry for their jobs (witness the hollowing out of the Bureau for Labour Statistics), but they will be concerned that the entire macro-landscape is being undermined – by weaker institutions, unreliable data, crypto and other ‘new’ money experiments, the acceptance of corruption and more volatile assets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The ultimate objective of ‘politicising’ the Fed, if that is what is at stake, is to make sure that the next crisis doesn’t happen on Donald Trump’s watch. The risk is that when that crisis does happen, the Fed will be part of the problem rather than the solution.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Atlas Shrugging

&lt;p&gt;This month's Global Macro Council Meeting focused on how investment portfolios balance risk and return using assets like stocks and bonds. Stocks have historically outpaced inflation but may deliver lower returns going forward due to high valuations. The key takeaway: portfolios need to adapt as markets and inflation trends evolve.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read this month's GMC Outlook below&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Unio-GMC-Outlook-July-2025.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;or download the report here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Understanding Portfolio Design &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have you ever wondered how your portfolio is composed? Why for example an investor with a risk-taking profile has mostly equities and corporate bonds, and why on a strategic basis investors are increasingly hedging their dollar exposure? Portfolios are built by combining assets that offer the best mix of return and risk, given a particular risk profile. The tricky part is trying to get a sense of what those returns and risks might look like in the future.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Learning from the past&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;History can help here. Academics Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton and Elroy Dimson, authors of ‘Triumph of the Optimists’, produce a 125-year dataset of bond and equity returns across 35 countries, and find that since the start of 2000, stock returns have been lower than over the 20th century (largely due to the impact of the financial crisis), though global equity investors still enjoyed an annualized real return of 3.5% over inflation and a rewarding equity risk premium relative to US treasury bills of 4.3%. You also want to be rewarded for the level of risk you take on across a portfolio of assets. Within a multi asset portfolio an important aspect here is what risk premium is attached to a particular asset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Looking ahead&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While historic returns offer a good benchmark, the profile of market behaviour may well be quite different into the future, notably so in a world where geopolitical and trade relationships are changing quite dramatically. In that context, investors rely on a process called capital market assumptions (CMA) that involves making long-term forecasts (five ten years and beyond) of asset returns. These forecasts are driven by a number of fundamentals – the progression of a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and earnings, interest rates and inflation. The aim here is to try to capture trend growth and trend inflation rather than time the ups and downs of the business cycle. This subject formed the central theme to our most recent Global Macro Council.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Evolving asset class dynamics and return expectations&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Understanding the interplay or correlation between asset classes from phenomena like inflation is a key input in developing an investment portfolio, and it does evolve. For instance, a period of moderate inflation like we saw across 2000-2019 tends to point equities and sovereign bonds having a more stable relationship, whereas periods of more elevated inflation like 1980-2000 tends to point more volatile relationships between both asset classes. Valuations are another important consideration. On this front, valuations for many bond markets are not onerous – especially if inflation is contained in the medium-term.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Stock market valuations are very high – we note that long term valuation measures such as the price to long-run earnings ratio (often called the Shiller PE) is close to historic highs. While markets can continue to trade at high valuation levels for some time, the effect of this in a long-term forecasting context is that equity returns will be somewhat lower than recent averages. Indeed, in the Unio capital market assumptions template, the forecasted 10-year return for US equities is 5.5%, which has been downgraded by nearly 1% in recent quarters as markets have risen. Based on this output we would expect European and emerging market equities to outperform the US in the long-run. In addition, our expectation is that European sovereign bonds return an average of 2.7% per annum, with corporate bonds enjoying a slightly higher return. In an evolving landscape, investment portfolios need to be guided through different economic cycles as the outlook for asset classes evolves. Outside of tactical short-term changes, this includes considerations for flexing long strategic asset allocations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Into the Future

&lt;p&gt;James Thurber’s famous book ‘The Secret Life of Walter Mitty’ is yet another book I would recommend to readers, to continue a recurring theme of recent weeks. It is especially apt in the context of the US-EU trade deal.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Walter Mitty appeared at the end of the 1930’s, a decade that was shaped by Herbert Hoover’s tariff policy, and that was marked by profound economic and geopolitical tensions. Mitty’s fantasies were provoked by the reality of his pedestrian, harangued life – which will appeal to European leaders who care to dream of better days. Equally, the giddiness of Mitty’s fantasies has its equivalent&nbsp;in&nbsp;the promises that Donald Trump has elicited from the EU – namely, to buy and invest hundreds of billions of dollars in energy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One week on, reaction to the US-EU trade deal is still mixed, and it is not quite clear who has ‘won’. This may be because it is not a trade deal in the classical sense – at least in the sense of the laborious trade deals that the EU is used to striking, partly because a large facet of the ‘deal’ is based on a promise and also because the optics of the deal are quite depressing for Europe.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At the headline level, EU exports into the US will be met with a 15% tariff to be paid by the US consumer, not unlike the Japanese ‘deal’. Auto companies will not be displeased with a 15% tariff. Wines and spirits, steel and notably pharmaceuticals have yet to have tariff levels finalised and there will be some relief on the confirmation of 15% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, though the investigation into pharmaceutical exports back to the US is a tail risk. Interestingly, the EU has resisted attempts to water down its digital regulations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Politically the spin that the EU is putting on the agreement is that it was the best possible outcome in a difficult geopolitical climate (recall that the recent EU-China summit was a damp-squib). While there were some public expressions of dismay, notably from the French prime minister Francois Bayrou – these can be seen to be largely aimed at the public, rather than Brussels.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Though Ursula von der Leyen is unpopular with EU governments for the singular way she runs her office – it is populated with officials who are close to national government (i.e.&nbsp;Alexandre Adam one of von der Leyen’s key deputies is an arch Macronist) – there is no sense that the large countries were left out of the negotiation process, and any effort to isolate von der Leyen for blame, is ignoble.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, amongst the professional trade staff, there is still some despair at the humiliating optics of the deal, the fact that it is in many ways not binding, and the risk that there is no undertaking that it is final in the sense that another round of tariffs could be imposed later.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On the positive side for Europe, and flipping to the ‘Mitty-esque’ part of the deal, two of the key undertakings in the deal – that European companies invest USD 600 bn in the US, in addition to a commitment to purchase microchips, as well as a commitment from the EU to buy USD 750bn in energy from the US over the course of the Trump presidency – are not at all clear in their implementation, and very much open to a fudge, with the right accounting treatment. In particular, the energy purchase commitment is unrealistic because it exceeds what the EU spends on energy in a given year and US energy firms do not have the capacity to service a commitment of USD 250bn in demand from Europe, whilst also serving other markets.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In my view there are several aftershocks to watch for. The first is that the deal further damages trans-Atlantic relations, and the level of trust between the EU and the US is likely the lowest it has ever been, and this has strategic implications as far afield as Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East. One other implication may be a drift, by government and consumers, away from US brands – as this may well be an effect that is seen in other regions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Two financial market implications are that the dampening of growth in Europe will maintain downward pressure on rates in Europe. More importantly, in the context of a very oversold dollar, there is now an incentive for EU policy makers to try hard to talk down the euro, and we may see a short-term rebound in the currency pair.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On the whole, if this is a ‘final’ deal and the topic of tariffs does not re-emerge in the next three years, it is not a bad deal for the semi’s, autos and aerospace sectors in Europe, though the public optics are not good for the EU. The best parts of the deal for Europe are the fantastical claims of incoming European investment and energy purchases in the US. This is a Mitty style fairy tale that the Europeans hope Mr Trump believes in.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The telling factor is that this deal has now emptied all goodwill from the trans-Atlantic relationship, and effectively completes another diplomatic rupture by President Trump.&nbsp;&nbsp;From a European point of view, this is yet another ‘wakeup call’ and the best that can be hoped for is that it accelerates projects like the savings and investment union and ‘strategic autonomy’.&nbsp;European leaders and the European policy elite keep talking about this, but until we see hard evidence (for example, German real GDP over the last five years is close to zero), they are the fantasists.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Secret Lives

&lt;p&gt;Although I devoted last week’s note to book recommendations, I want to start this week’s missive by also highlighting a few classic works, notably Charles Dickens’ ‘Little Dorrit' and Honoré de Balzac’s ‘Lost Illusions’ and ‘Pére Goriot’. All three books, published in the middle of the 19th century, in the shadow of the debt burdens that resulted from the Napoleonic Wars, speak to the pernicious aspects of debt – debtors’ prisons, debt collection and the surrender of properties caused by over-indebtedness.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;They have come to mind because markets are beginning to price in a potentially very dramatic change in fortunes – which, if it occurs, will be historic and far reaching. There are at least three noteworthy elements to this.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is that the difference between interest rates for companies, relative to ‘safe’ government bonds, have fallen to historic lows. In more technical terms, corporate bond spreads (corporate yields less the US 10-year bond yield for example) and spreads for riskier high yield bonds in the US, are now well below long-term average levels. While this is a function of strong risk appetite and demand for fixed income, it is also a recognition by markets that debt levels for corporations (on average) are at very manageable levels, while those for governments are not.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Second, the spread between emerging market debt (countries and companies) and Treasuries has also compressed, to multi-decade lows. Again, this is an indication of appetite for yield from investors, but also a re-evaluation of the riskiness of emerging market debt (compared to countries like the US). Emerging markets collectively (China skews the data) have a debt to GDP ratio of 75% according to the April edition of the IMF Fiscal Monitor, which is the highest it has ever been.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The only saving grace is that emerging economies have lower debt levels than the developed world, though the threshold to debt sustainability is much lower for emerging economies (less deep markets, harder to gather taxes). What is more interesting is that within the emerging markets universe there is a decent number of large emerging economies that have relatively low levels of debt – Indonesia and Mexico for example.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then third, rising stock markets and property markets, not to mention business creation, have created massive wealth. Remarkably, world wealth stands at over USD 500 trn, with nearly half of this in the USA where the wealth of the average adult is USD 620,000, according to the recent UBS wealth report. The USA is also home to about 60% of the world’s ultra-high net worth individuals, those with net wealth of over USD 50 mn. Surpassing this group, there are close to 3,000 individuals globally with wealth between USD 1bn and USD 50bn (collectively they are worth nearly USD 13 trn).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The point of sketching out varying levels of debt and wealth is that in the next five or more years, there will be a seismic transfer of power, influence and wealth between those who have ‘healthy’ balance sheets, and those who are encumbered with debt…as Dickens and Balzac have so skillfully demonstrated.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To give a few examples. The UK is notoriously fiscally constrained and cannot alone raise the capital to fund its ambitious AI Opportunity plan. As such, it will likely enter in partnerships with sovereign wealth type investment funds (Caisse des Dêpots, the Canadian fund, has just announced a CA$ 3.5bn investment in a nuclear energy plant in Suffolk).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The same is true in the US. In a recent research note, Morgan Stanley estimates that the US will need to invest USD 3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure up to 2028 (new energy sources and data centres), and that at least half of that capital will come from the large technology firms in the US. In the context of America’s fiscal constraints, cash rich technology firms will become more powerful, and critical to national&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If the US has a debt crisis, and Treasury yields balloon out beyond 8%, an easy political remedy would be to co-opt (under threat of a punitive wealth tax) America’s wealthy to buy government debt. Equally, sovereign wealth funds of low debt countries like Norway, will have a unique opportunity to buy strategic assets across Europe in the event of a debt crunch.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My prediction is that France, the UK and perhaps the US will spend the next fifteen years in the ‘Debtor’s Prison’, while lower debt countries like Germany, Poland and the Netherlands and Norway will enjoy a strategic opportunity. In a world where democracy is under pressure, and in some cases, inequality is rising, large cash rich companies will control more strategic assets, and the wealthy will find that governments need to court them rather than tax them.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The one country where this may not be the case is China, which is vastly indebted. Having studied the way some European economies become heavily indebted in the aftermath of the euro-zone crisis, the Communist party will throw entrepreneurs, the wealthy and corporates into the Debtors Prison, and let them pay their way out.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

The Debtor's Prison

&lt;p&gt;Last year’s Unio summer book list proved a great success with readers so, with the holiday season approaching, we are putting together a new set of recommendations – along three criteria – books on finance, books that help us to understand the changing world and to take readers minds off this changing world, enjoyable fiction.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To start with finance and economics, Ireland is unusual internationally in terms of its budget surplus, other countries are in a much tougher place. In particular, Britain’s Chancellor Rachel Reeves has had a difficult year, granted the backdrop of a high deficit and heavy debt burden. It is a difficult job, as evidenced by Reggie Maudling’s letter to his successor in 1964 ‘Sorry to leave it in such a mess, old cock’. In this respect, Roy Jenkins book &lt;strong&gt;‘The Chancellors’&lt;/strong&gt; is worth dusting off, and few other books by finance ministers are as analytical (Tim Geithner’s &lt;strong&gt;‘Stress Test’&lt;/strong&gt; and Ben Bernanke’s ‘&lt;strong&gt;Courage to Act’&lt;/strong&gt; were fairly dull). However, the other book in this realm that I recommend, with Fed chief Jerome Powell under pressure from the White House, is Liaquat Ahmed’s &lt;strong&gt;‘Lords of Finance’&lt;/strong&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With some markets creaking nervously (bonds) and others behaving complacently (equities), it is time to re-read Roger Lowenstein’s &lt;strong&gt;‘When Genius Failed’&lt;/strong&gt; the story of the collapse of the LTCM hedge fund. I recall a seminar where David Modest, a partner in LTCM recounted, with some emotion how it came asunder. Another classic, from before the LTCM era, but that is relevant to private assets, is &lt;strong&gt;‘Barbarians at the Gate’&lt;/strong&gt; by Bryan Burroughs and John Helyar.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then, if the summer weather is too hot, it’s always good to have a few trophy books lying around, that will certainly never be read but nonetheless confer an aura of wisdom on their owners, such as &lt;strong&gt;‘A History of Interest Rates’&lt;/strong&gt; by Sydney Homer and Richard Sylla.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Moving on to books that will help steer readers through intense geopolitical change, I want to start with the late Joe Nye’s &lt;strong&gt;‘Soft Power’&lt;/strong&gt; and &lt;strong&gt;‘Life in the American Century’&lt;/strong&gt;, which give a now nostalgic glimpse of a more internationalist America. Two pre-occupations in Washington are defence, and wealth. On the former, Alex Karp’s &lt;strong&gt;‘Tech Republic’&lt;/strong&gt; was more thoughtful than I had expected, and the two futuristic books on the defence threats that the US faces, by Admiral Jim Stavridis and Elliott Ackermann &lt;strong&gt;‘2034’&lt;/strong&gt; and &lt;strong&gt;‘2054’&lt;/strong&gt;, give us a sense of how conflicts of the future will be fought, even if these books are being overtaken by events.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Then, with the recent Trump budget (Big, Beautiful Bill) set to tilt the economic scales in favour of the wealthy, Evan Osnos’ book &lt;strong&gt;‘The Haves and Have-Yachts’&lt;/strong&gt; is worth a read, as are Oliver Bullough’s books &lt;strong&gt;‘MoneyLand’&lt;/strong&gt; and &lt;strong&gt;‘Butler to the World’&lt;/strong&gt; on the topic of wealth and corruption.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Universities have been in the news this year, and ironically, there are very few good books about university life. In a previous note I had recommended Tom Sharpe’s &lt;strong&gt;‘Porterhouse Blue’&lt;/strong&gt;, and would add &lt;strong&gt;‘Lucky Jim’ &lt;/strong&gt;by Kingsley Amis, &lt;strong&gt;‘Changing Places’&lt;/strong&gt; by David Lodge and for fans of university sports, the classic &lt;strong&gt;‘True Blue’ &lt;/strong&gt;by Dan Topolski.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Switching continents and genre to fiction, a few works of fiction are worth reading to help shape our view of Russia (and Ukraine), most notably Vasily Grossman’s &lt;strong&gt;‘Everything Flows’&lt;/strong&gt; and Mikhail Bulgakov’s&lt;strong&gt; ‘White Guard’&lt;/strong&gt;, and then more generally Pushkin’s&lt;strong&gt; Eugene Onegin&lt;/strong&gt; (decent as an audio-book on a long journey).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For well written fiction, I think William Boyd’s writing is superb (his latest book is &lt;strong&gt;Gabriel’s Moon&lt;/strong&gt;), '&lt;strong&gt;Shuggie Bain'&lt;/strong&gt; by Douglas Stuart is an example of very original, inventive use of English, and for those readers who can’t escape finance, Lionel Shriver’s &lt;strong&gt;‘The Mandibles’&lt;/strong&gt; gives a glimpse of how it might be to live in a financially broken world. Sentimentally, I wanted to also mention Edna O’Brien, who died this time last year – have a read of &lt;strong&gt;‘Country Girls’&lt;/strong&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a last word, I am taking a collection of very different books with me this summer – a friend has kindly given me a copy of Ed Luce’s &lt;strong&gt;‘Zbig: The Life of Zbigniew Brzezinski’&lt;/strong&gt;, which I look forward to not only for colour on one of America’s great strategists, but I expect for Luce’s generally excellent writing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I would also like to read &lt;strong&gt;‘Kingmaker’&lt;/strong&gt;, Sonia Purnell’s account of the life of Pamela Harriman, former US ambassador to Paris, amongst many other roles. In addition, in a world of ‘deal-making’ I am packing the ancient, François de Caillière’ ‘&lt;strong&gt;L’Art de négocier sous Louis XIV’&lt;/strong&gt; and the &lt;strong&gt;‘Letters of JRR Tolkien’&lt;/strong&gt;.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Happy reading and have a great week ahead!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Unio's Summer Book List

&lt;p&gt;In this article, Yvonne Clinton explores some of the most common scenarios of intergenerational wealth transfer highlighting how partnering with a financial planner can help families navigate these moments more strategically and transfer wealth more efficiently. A 6-minute read.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Attitudes to wealth within Irish families has changed. Some of us may remember times when talking about money was a taboo, an unforgivable sin. As long as the bills were paid and the family fed and watered, no more questions were asked. Children certainly didn’t enquire as to what inheritance they might receive! However, it’s clear that this attitude is changing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ireland has become wealthier, with net wealth per adult increasing from €140,000 in 2013 to €323,000 in 2025[1].&nbsp;And with Irish parents finding they have accumulated more money than they will need in their lifetime, they have started to pass this wealth on to the next generation. In fact, more than one in three Irish households have received an inheritance or a substantial gift[2]. This reflects the changing attitudes - rather than deferring inheritance until after death, many parents now prefer to transfer wealth during their lifetime, when it may offer greater benefit to their children.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Tax Considerations&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A key consideration in transferring wealth is tax. The main taxes that can arise are Capital Acquisitions Tax (CAT) and Capital Gains Tax (CGT).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;CAT is charged a person receiving assets as a gift or inheritance. A certain amount of transfer is tax-free, within lifetime thresholds which depend on your relationship with the person who made the gift or left the inheritance. Anything in excess of this amount is taxed at a rate of 33%.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;CGT is charged at a rate of 33% on the gains made on an asset. Typically, people encounter CGT when they sell an asset like an investment property, a business, or shares, and they pay the CGT liability from the proceeds received from the sale. However, giving someone an asset also is a chargeable event for CGT. For example, if a parent gives a child an asset with a gain on it, they must pay the CGT liability as if they had sold the asset. Consideration needs to be given as to where the funds to pay the tax will come from, as the parents have not received any cash from transferring the asset like they would under a sale.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Lump Sum Gift&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The most common transfer of wealth, a lump sum, is often given by parents to their children to help them buy a house, particularly in the current property market where prices are rising out of the reach of a typical individual or couple. This is reflected in the fact that homeowners are twice as likely to have received a gift or inheritance, compared to renters.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Parents can be very generous in handing over a lump sum at a time when their children need it, however planning ahead and splitting the gift into several smaller gifts of €6,000 per annum would be more efficient. This is because the first €3,000 of gifts received from an individual each year do not count towards the lifetime threshold under what is known as the Small Gift Exemption.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Let’s put some numbers into an example. With two parents, that’s €6,000 per annum per child (€3,000 from each parent). Over a five-year period, the child could receive €30,000 tax-free and keep their full lifetime threshold intact. If the parents were to give them €30,000 in a single year, the first €6,000 would be tax-free under the Small Gift Exemption, but the balance of €24,000 would consume some of the child’s lifetime threshold from their parents of €400,000. For parents looking to give more substantial funds in a shorter period, they could consider extending the Small Gift Exemption to their child’s spouse or partner – there is no requirement for it to be a blood relative!&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Family Business&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Ireland, almost two thirds of all firms are family businesses[3]. It can take a lifetime of work for a business owner to build up their enterprise, and it can be a very proud moment when it gets passed on to the next generation.&nbsp;The next generation is keen to get involved with these businesses, with almost half seriously considering taking over from their parents one day[3].&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The capital gains embedded in the business may act as a barrier to the parents handing over ownership. However, there are two main reliefs available that can reduce or even eliminate CGT due on the transfer – Retirement Relief and Entrepreneur Relief. Furthermore, Business Asset Relief is available to reduce the child’s exposure to CAT by reducing the taxable value of the business by 90%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;For instance, take a family business worth €1m, all of which is a capital gain as the parents built the business from scratch. Now, the parents could have that capital gain completely relieved by Retirement Relief, removing one barrier. However, the child has received €1m of a “gift”, and their maximum lifetime threshold from parents is only €400,000 – so they are liable to CAT on €600,000 of a gift. However, with Business Asset Relief, the taxable value of the gift could be reduced to just €100,000 – well within the child’s tax-free threshold!&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Qualification for all these reliefs can be complex, so it’s good to get planning for a business transfer well in advance, by consulting with a tax adviser and having clear conversations with all family members, to ensure the transfer to the next generation is as smooth and as efficient as possible.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The Family Farm&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The family farm is an asset people are highly attached to. Its preservation and passage to the next generation is a time-honoured tradition in many families, although actual discussion and planning for this transfer is not always at the forefront of farmers’ minds. This is reflected in the fact that, traditionally, farms transferred on death, rather than in the farmer’s lifetime. Less than half of farm owners have a succession plan in place – but of those who do, almost all of them will be transferring the farm to a family member[4].&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Transfer during the farmer’s lifetime can expose the farmer to CGT, although they may be able to avail of the reliefs available to business owners, as outlined above.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Furthermore, a similar relief from CAT exists for the next generation who receive the farm, called Agricultural Relief. Conditions are strict, so early planning is essential. If they do not qualify for it, Business Asset Relief can be claimed instead in certain circumstances.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Although lifetime transfer of the family farm may not be the tradition, the tax barriers to it can be surmounted with careful planning and good tax advice – leaving the farmer to enjoy peace of mind knowing that the future of the farm is in good hands.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Special Structures&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In general, it is beneficial to transfer surplus assets as soon as possible so that they are transferred at a lower value, i.e. during the parents’ lifetime. But what if the parent isn’t comfortable with the idea of giving their children significant wealth, or if the children (or even grandchildren) are minors?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Bare trusts can be used to control funds until a child reaches the age of 18, however after this age they can access and use the funds as they wish. To continue controlling the funds, another structure is required. This is where special structures like family partnerships or discretionary trusts come into play.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A family partnership enables the assets to be transferred into the names of the next generation, but the parents can retain control over the investment decisions of the partnership and the disbursement of funds out to the partners, i.e., the children.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Discretionary trusts can be used to hold assets where an individual does not have capacity to manage their own affairs, for minors, or where it is preferred that the individual does not hold the assets in their own name. CAT does not arise until the point at which the assets are appointed out of the trust into the name of the beneficiary personally. Discretionary trust tax of 6% of the asset value initially, and 1% p.a., thereafter, is levied on the trust in addition to income tax on income and CGT on gains. This discourages their use as a means of deferring CAT; however, exemptions can be claimed for trusts set up for incapacitated individuals or minors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the author &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Yvonne Clinton, CFP® is a financial planner in Unio Wealth Management’s Financial Planning Team and has a wealth of experience in advising high net worth individuals and families on how they can achieve their goals.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Talk to us&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thinking about passing on your wealth? At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you would like to start the conversation with one of our expert advisers, &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;get in touch here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Sources:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Unio Wealth Management, 2025 &lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-unio-building-wealth-report&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Unio Building Wealth Report&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;CSO, 2020, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-itw/intergenerationaltransferofwealth2020/keyfindings/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Intergenerational Transfer of Wealth&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;DCU, 2024 &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.dcu.ie/commsteam/news/2024/apr/dcu-national-centre-family-business-launch-succession-report&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;To Join or Not to Join: Understanding the Succession Intentions of&nbsp;Next-Generation Family Business Members&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;CSO, 2023 &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-fss/farmstructuresurvey2023/keyfindings/#:~:text=Some%2087%25%20of%20workers%20were,successor%20was%20a%20family%20member.&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;Farm Structure Survey&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Passing It On: How Families Are Rethinking Wealth Transfer

&lt;p&gt;One of the favourite books I have received as a gift is ‘Bushido’,&nbsp;the framework of the Japanese code of chivalry. I was given the book in the very early 2000’s, when&nbsp;it was not yet obvious that Japan would stagnate for quite so long and,&nbsp;the talk was still of the collapse in Japanese golf club membership prices&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, one of the remarkable socio-economic trends in Japan up to the mid-1990’s was the startling rise in Japanese gold club membership fees, which in the heady 1980’s Japan, had become a tradeable asset, so much so that an index was created (always a warning sign). During the period 1982-1989 the average golf club membership fee rose by 400%, with a final 190% spurt from 1989 to 1990. Companies such as Ginza Golf Services initially made a lot of money trading golf club memberships and at the peak of the market some were changing hands for close to USD 3mn.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Naturally, this bubble collapsed, and as a nod to the future I flag a blogpost from ‘GolfProp’ magazine that shows that on average entry fees for American gold club memberships have been increasing at a rate of 23% per annum since 2019. Indeed, within the past year the membership fee at Mar-a-Lago has gone up by 43%&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Back to Bushido, which as a noble, chivalric code developed in the 16th&nbsp;century, is unlike European ‘Chivalry’ (see Maurice Keen’s book of this title is a must read) in that the idea of ‘Chivalry’ came about much earlier, and largely because of an effort to stop the knights of Europe killing each other in jousts and disputes. Bushido is still part of the mindset of many Japanese, and Japan is increasingly unique as a country where very strong social codes frame behaviour.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To that end, the sense of bushido and Japanese diplomacy will have been taken aback by the unexpected decision by President Trump’s to slap a 25% tariff on America’s main allies in Asia, Japan and South Korea. Japan has always enjoyed close ties to the US (Al Alletzhauser’s 1990 book ‘House of Nomura’ is a very good account of how America helped build the modern Japanese financial and corporate system). I have a sense that another book of that era, Ezra Vogel’s ‘Japan as Number One’, seems to have stuck in Trump’s mind (in the 1990’s he went on CNN to&nbsp;castigate&nbsp;Japan&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8wJc7vHcTs__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gK_VEcueMp2w1vAtT1YxXBoCU8kDMr5a0PRHQFxevi9b23pnbUnJrF7V__bt76blqeVusznf89FRUdlDta1oXCRG$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;American foreign and trade policy on Japan&lt;/a&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Trump and ‘bushido’ are anathema to each other, and the Japanese will be disappointed by his behaviour, given that Tokyo has always had close relationships with American presidents – though never as close as that with Jacques Chirac who visited Japan over 40 times (for various reasons which I shall not disclose).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The potential rupture in relations between Tokyo and Washington introduces a strategic dilemma for Japan, at a time when its economy is awakening from decades of slumber. Like the UK, Japan’s geopolitical moorings are coming unstuck. President Macron’s state visit to London shows the direction of travel for the UK on security and defence, and whilst it is accelerating defence spending, Japan may end up considering more radical solutions for its defence in the context of Chinese belligerence (in 2024 Japan’s air force scrambled jets 704 times against incursions by Chinese and Russian jets). For instance, Japan is the one country that could quickly build a nuclear weapons programme, if it needed to.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What is interesting in the Japanese case is that as geopolitical uncertainty rises, its economy and financial markets are thawing. The property sector is just reaching levels last seen in the early 1990’s (while Tokyo prices have recovered beyond 1991 levels, the rest of the Japan’s residential market is still below the price point reached then).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Having suppressed bonds yields for a long time, the Bank of Japan is now raising rates, and Japanese bond yields have been pushing higher, and given the size of the Japanese bond market (and the balance sheet of the Bank of Japan), it is driving yields higher international, and deserves watching as a medium-term risk to markets.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;However, while bond yields are rising in the absence of yield curve control by the central bank, factors that are regarded as engines of the economy – earnings, consumer behaviour and employment are more muted, and give rise to the sense that Japan is either in the ante chamber of a full recovery, or on the precipice of something nastier.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Tariffs, and a confusing break with the US, could upset the Shigeru Ishiba’s unpopular government (Upper House elections are soon), which is struggling in the context of a very ‘un-bushido’ world.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Bushido

&lt;p&gt;It looks like I will have to burn all the Biggles books I collected as a child and jettison any antique copies of ‘Eagle’ comic books, because there are reports that Britain and Germany are about to sign a defence co-operation agreement, ending a long stretch of history where they have been on opposing sides. Indeed, the entire literature of what George Orwell described in his essay ‘Boys’ Weeklies’ could now be caught offside.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For instance, the work of John Buchan, once Governor General of Canada, and well known as the author of the ‘Thirty Nine Steps’, may be especially dislodged by an agreement that casts Germany and Britain as best geopolitical friends, as many of his books, like those of Captain W.E. John, depend on the role of the indispensable British hero seeing off his German nemesis. An innovation on the part of Buchan, was the glamorous female mastermind, Hilda von Einem, who vies with the handsome Irish intriguer Dominic Medina (please do read ‘Greenmantle’ and the ‘Three Hostages’) as the foil to Richard Hannay. &nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the significant moments of history when Britain and Germany (Prussia then) found themselves on the same side was the Battle of Waterloo, one of the great contests, where during a pounding from French guns Wellington’s officers asked for orders he replied, ‘there are no orders, except to&nbsp;stand&nbsp;firm to the&nbsp;last man’.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the survivors was&nbsp;Henry Percy, aide de camp to Wellington, who after the Battle had to row halfway across the Channel with the news of the Duke’s victory, as an absence of wind had halted his sloop. On arriving in England he found that many (in the City) already knew of the victory owing, allegedly, to a network of agents assembled by Nathaniel Rothschild who is said to have made a fortune on the event and thereby spawned the phrase ‘buy on the sound of cannons’. It is a useful illustration of the roles of communications (social media today) and finance in war.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, part of the reason that Germany and Britain are moving closer together on defence (France is even closer to each one militarily) is finance. Gone are the days when London and Berlin could afford to spend 9% of GDP building great battleships in the lead-up to the First World War (Margaret MacMillan’s ‘The War That Ended Peace’ is worth a read), and now they must do with more meagre ambitions and newfound collaborations.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this context, the recent NATO Summit was a watershed as it&nbsp;signalled a headline commitment to 5% defence spending across NATO countries (as a % of GDP), something that would have been unthinkable four years ago.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In Europe, there is a sense that some of the defence spending pledges amount to a ‘fudge’, and it is very clear that defence spending as a % of GDP does not translate into defence readiness. Of the European members of NATO, the UK, Greece, France, Poland, the Nordics and Baltics are the most defence ready, and some of them are already spending ambitiously. For example, Poland is set to reach a level of defence spending of 4% of GDP and has already struck a strategic military procurement partnership with South Korea.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On the other hand, countries like Italy and especially Spain have been castigated for their reluctance to spend. Italy has talked of including investment in a bridge from the mainland to Sicily as defence infrastructure and in the case of Spain, it has apparently tried to ‘kitchen sink’ other tangential forms of spending into the defence segment.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Still, the broad 5% target is a gamechanger, and is comprised of two parts – close to 3.5% on defence spending and then 1.5% on areas like cyber security and AI driven defence capabilities. Momentum will be boosted by the EU’s Eur 150 bn lending facility for defence procurement, up to Eur 3bn in loans from the EIB (European Investment Bank), and the German government’s significant augmentation of its defence budget. Still, this fiscal support leaves an enormous shortfall that will likely require capital from the private sector.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this respect, we are at the cross-over of geopolitical forces. NATO as an operating construct has been thrown into doubt by Donald Trump and the actions of his defence policymakers (the latest act being to deprive Ukraine of defensive missiles). As such, Article 5 no longer seems as watertight as it did in the early 2000’s (it has only been invoked once, in September 2011, by Nick Burns, then US Ambassador to NATO). The impression many in Brussels have is that Europe will be left to defend itself from Russian aggression – there is no parlour game amongst the various European intelligence agencies to estimate when a Russian incursion might occur.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a result, the EU will become a much bigger player in defence procurement (see the recent&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/eu-defence-industry/introducing-white-paper-european-defence-and-rearm-europe-plan-readiness-2030_en__;!!O22_8FOSssc!joSDS5lmsBxjJM7i_jFPZLhIerjxd2Q1XAxgNlBtNqqksHtpqc6qQMOqwqBqqiZLCtlRzisiKO8-QN2dRi54X4Fh$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;White Paper here&lt;/a&gt;), Europe’s defence centric innovation economy will grow rapidly, and ‘war bonds’ will become a new asset for investors. Europe’s main threat is most obviously Russia, in addition to cyberwar from further afield. The danger in the long term is that it finds itself the last bastion of democracy, amidst a range of large, autocratic countries.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To return to Germany and Britain, anyone who reads the MacMillan books can’t escape the recognition that the arms race between Germany and Britain over one hundred years ago, is now being repeated by the US and China. Ultimately Europe may count itself lucky to stay out of this context.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

Guns and Roses

&lt;p&gt;This month's Global Macro Council Meeting focused on portfolio management, highlighting how investors are adjusting their asset allocation strategies in response to heightened market volatility, a weaker dollar, and shifting economic conditions. Discussions centred on the incorporation of a broader range of asset classes and the adoption of more dynamic portfolio management approaches.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We were delighted to be joined by guest speakers Marina Evtimova, Director, Portfolio Analysis and Solutions at Blackrock and Michael Ficht, DWS Asset Management and we thank them for their valued input.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Read this month's GMC Outlook below &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unio-eb.ie/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Unio-GMC-Outlook_-June-2025.pdf&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;or download the report here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Valuations Normalising &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Liberation Day tariff announcement, and the resilience that markets have shown in the face of geopolitical and economic stress have, once volatility has died down, caused many investors to re-examine long run asset return assumptions. Broadly in public markets, conventions regarding drawdowns and volatility are being re-thought, in the sense that the average level of volatility in public markets may be higher now. In addition, many allocators are configuring a long-run weaker dollar, and whilst equities have recovered to close to all-time highs, the dollar remains weak, suggesting that the near decade long bull market is threatened.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Tactical Moves&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Since last December, our&nbsp;portfolios have anticipated many of these changes – in December we switched some capital from US to European equities, moved overweight cash and have recently hedged a significant part of our dollar exposure.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Notwithstanding&nbsp;our&nbsp;recent&nbsp;tactical and hedging moves,&nbsp;our attention has focused&nbsp;on the changing shape of portfolios in a radically changing world. In this month’s Global Macro Council, we hosted a number of&nbsp;global&nbsp;institutional managers in a debate on the outlook for asset allocation in the long-run. Several threads are worth noting.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Changing Asset Relationships&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One is the way in which the relationship between key assets can change. The foundations of most portfolios is a trade-off between a large equity investment and safer bonds (often referred to as 60/40, 60% equities and 40% bonds). The idea is that bonds act as a cushion to riskier equities. However, where inflation surprises to the upside,&nbsp;like 2022,&nbsp;equities and bonds can underperform together. One solution to this is to have a&nbsp;richer array of&nbsp;asset classes in the portfolio – corporate fixed income for example, that allow the investor to better offset macro-economic changes. We also deploy a thematic element in portfolios that is an explicit play on inflation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Dynamic Portfolio Management&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another thread we are focused on is the notion of more&nbsp;dynamic&nbsp;management of portfolios. Our lead&nbsp;wealth&nbsp;offering at Unio is based on active management where we use&nbsp;shorter term levers such as&nbsp;tactical asset allocation, as well as regional and some sectoral allocations to generate return. Our sense is that in a portfolio climate that is characterized by a higher level of volatility, a nimble or active approach is a necessity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Emerging Asset Classes&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In time, as economies change (for instance as Europe invests more in infrastructure and defence) newer asset classes will grow significantly. As such, in the medium-term private assets (private equity, venture and infrastructure) will play a greater role in portfolios where investors have tolerance for illiquidity.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio Wealth Management, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&nbsp;get in touch here.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

The Future Portfolio

&lt;p&gt;The performative exchange of military strikes between Iran and the US means that a nuclear tipped hot war in the Middle East is off the cards for the moment, though the bad news is that a far greater crisis awaits.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the past five or so weeks prominent financiers – Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon and even Elon Musk – have warned about the burgeoning fiscal deficit and the mountain of debt that the US (and other countries) has accumulated. &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/blogs.worldbank.org/en/voices/the-looming-global-debt-disaster__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gb-oeO2k5zMH6bkbgZQFZUs8HpVCbmhkF9BOqz-D86JIDEEcCtFMfZBKsOtfFR6SATNoneQtOD4Vu3DU0uxIIgCM$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;A very decent blog&lt;/a&gt; post by Indermit Gill, the chief economist at the World Bank, outlines the viewpoint.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Next week, there is a good chance that the Senate passes President Trump’s budget, which according to the independent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) will swell the deficit by close to USD 3trn and push debt to GDP towards an unprecedented 125% in the next ten years Additionally, rumours that the next Federal Reserve chair will be picked soon by President Trump (Powell leaves in May 2026) has upset the dollar, making life even more difficult for foreign holders of US debt.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What is interesting is not how gargantuan the world’s debt load has become, but how few people care. Politics in the West has changed so much that it has neutered what used to be a political class who in a very Catholic way, pronounced themselves to be fiscally responsible.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the US, it used to be the case that a good number of Senators were what was called ‘fiscal hawks’, or had an aversion to large budget deficits, and an even greater aversion to resolving them through higher taxes (the US has only produced budget surplus twice – under Lyndon Johnson and then Bill Clinton – and in both cases taxes were raised). Paul Krugman has referred to deficit hawks as ‘&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/opinion/krugman-deficit-hawks-down.html__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gb-oeO2k5zMH6bkbgZQFZUs8HpVCbmhkF9BOqz-D86JIDEEcCtFMfZBKsOtfFR6SATNoneQtOD4Vu3DU0tZ_Vexu$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;deficit scolds’&lt;/a&gt;, because they spend more time warning about the dangers of the deficit than fixing it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ronald Reagan, and the policy makers who surrounded him – namely James Baker, Nicholas Brady and Don Reagan, were fiscally conservative by reputation but had the luxury of being able to grow the US economy through tax cuts and de-regulation. At the time (early 1980’s onwards) some Republicans had a ‘starve the beast’ mindset, which is to say that they favoured lowering taxes so that the government would have less revenue to spend, but there is little evidence that this worked as a strategy (partly because many of the initial Reagan tax cuts were aimed at the rich).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the post Reagan phase, deficit reduction as a virtue came into its own in the Robert Rubin era (at the Treasury), and many of his former colleagues and acolytes continued this during the early years of the Obama presidency (a relevant private body is the Hamilton Project, where Rubin was a founder).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One of the notable initiatives of the Obama White House was the creation of the US National Committee on National Fiscal Responsibility and Reform or the Simpson-Bowles Commission as it became known, a bi-partisan body that aimed to reduce the fiscal deficit and debt. Its most noteworthy aspect, in my memory, was the degree of civility and collaboration between representatives of the Democrats and Republicans. Such a body could not exist today.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Indeed, the radicalisation of parts of both parties, in the context of quantitative easing (which has dulled the impact of rising debt and deficits) has broken the link between fiscal responsibility and electability. For example, the first crack in the Republican edifice was the advent of the Tea Party Movement, one of whose tenets was tough fiscal responsibility, as inspired by a ‘Chicago Tea Party’&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEZB4taSEoA__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gb-oeO2k5zMH6bkbgZQFZUs8HpVCbmhkF9BOqz-D86JIDEEcCtFMfZBKsOtfFR6SATNoneQtOD4Vu3DU0oLNxLTJ$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;rant from CNBC commentator Rick Santelli &lt;/a&gt;in 2009. Many of the Tea Party oriented voters and Republican politicians then gravitated to the Trump corner in 2016, the price of which was a surrender of their fiscal sacred cows.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Today there is only a handful of fiscally conservative Republican Senators (the Club for Growth publishes an &lt;a href=&quot;https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/clubforgrowthfoundation.org/projects/congressional-economic-scorecards/?report-year=2024&amp;chamber=S__;!!O22_8FOSssc!gb-oeO2k5zMH6bkbgZQFZUs8HpVCbmhkF9BOqz-D86JIDEEcCtFMfZBKsOtfFR6SATNoneQtOD4Vu3DU0kpW01w6$&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;annual scorecard&lt;/a&gt; of how fiscally rigorous it thinks members of the House and Senate are). The majority of Republican Senators appear happy to give the nod to a policy that edges the US closer to the financial precipice. Indeed, not only will the Trump budget favour wealthy households but it will increase the number of financially precarious households, and damage healthcare and education provision.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The other interesting observation I draw is that the relationship between debt and politics has now reached a turning point, and from here debt will condition politics. I see this happening in at least three ways.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The first is that in the context of ‘zero fiscal space’ the constraints imposed by high levels of debt and deficits, will drive new splits within parties, for example between those who are keen to spend more on defence, versus those who wish to preserve social welfare safety nets. The revolt by a large number of Labour MPs against benefit cuts imposed by Keir Starmer is an example. In the future, this cleavage may inspire new political parties. To echo a recent note (&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/insights/the-power-algorithm&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;The Power Algorithm&lt;/a&gt;) new ‘tech bro’ parties could materialise that prefer using robots to do the work of immigrants and that technology should be deployed for social control.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second, related scenario is that in the absence of money to spend, the traditional ‘pork barrel’ cycle of politics disintegrates, and instead politicians tilt the broad political debate to non-fiscal issues – identity, foreign policy, and immigration.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A third element in the hypothesis is that voters observe mainstream politicians to be helpless and useless in the face of very high fiscal constraints, and they become largely apathetic about politics and in some cases vote for extreme candidates, such as ‘chainsaw economists’ as in the case of Argentina.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this way, and perhaps exceptionally in history, the coming debt crisis (if the World Bank’s economist is correct) will be intertwined with the current crisis of politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Have a great week ahead,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Mike&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;About the Author&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A native of Cork, now living in Paris, Mike O’Sullivan started his career as an academic at Oxford and Princeton. Mike has over twenty years experience in global financial markets, most recently as CIO at Credit Suisse Wealth, and is an expert in European financial policy, working with several European fintech firms. A regular contributor to Newstalk and Forbes, Mike is the author of The Levelling (What's next after globalization?). He has written two books on Ireland ('Ireland and the Global Question', and 'What did we do right?') and was an independent member of Ireland's National Economic Social Council (NESC) from 2011-16. He is a Director and Chief Investment Officer at Unio and chairs the Unio Global Macro Council and the Unio Investment Committee.&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;At Unio, we are on a mission to guide, guard and grow our clients' wealth by providing unparalleled full financial life advice. If you want to learn more, speak with your Unio adviser or&nbsp;&lt;a href=&quot;https://unio.ie/lets-talk&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;talk to us&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of Unio.&lt;/p&gt;

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